Even quieter on the solar front – another "all quiet alert" issued

solar_mdi_121408

The Sun today

Solar cycle 24 still getting a slow and very delayed start.  This is the third one of these (that I know of) this past year.

From SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center) in Belgium: http://sidc.oma.be/products/quieta/

:Issued: 2008 Dec 14 1156 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/quieta

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# From the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): "ALL QUIET" ALERT                     #

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START OF ALL QUIET ALERT ....................... The SIDC - RWC

Belgium expects quiet Space Weather conditions for the next 48 hours or

until further notice. This implies that: * the solar X-ray output is

expected to remain below C-class level, * the K_p index is expected to

remain below 5, * the high-energy proton fluxes are expected to remain

below the event threshold.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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(h/t to sunspotter)
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Steven Hill

It’s a good thing, if this was not happening, AGW would be burning up the planet by now. Polar Bears would be dead, costal cities under water and gigantic massive hurricanes would be wiping man off the planet.
As soon as the sun comes alive again, AGW will take a giant massive heat wave all across the world and man will never be the same.
Obama must act now and quickly to shut down all Coal Burning power plants. Cars and trucks parked. Heating with NG and Oil needs to be stopped. We have a window of opportunity to save the planet while the sun us asleep!
Stop AGW now! Call Washington! If you need money 1-800-BAI-LOUT

Les Johnson

Anecdotal, but;
Its minus 30 deg C here now, and with the wind chill, it was nearly -50 deg C last night. Its still only -41 with the wind chill.
The 14 day forecast is for at least 10 degrees under the historical average.
Right now, its nearly 20 degrees under the historical average.
Global warming?
BRING IT ON. PLEASE!

crosspatch

I think what bothers me most about this whole quiet sun thing is what the various “experts” seems to be saying. Every time a little spot group appears, they seem to rush out with press releases that cycle 24 is finally ramping up … and then it goes quiet again.
Many of these “experts” would gain more of my respect if they simply said “we don’t have a clue what is going to happen next but our best guess based on our theories of how the sun works is …” but they can’t seem to do that. Dr. Hathaway in particular seems to be “sticking to his guns” with regard to his earlier predictions for cycle 24.
Is it really that difficult to say something along the lines of “the sun is exhibiting a pattern we have never seen before in the modern era and we will have to watch it and learn from it in order to improve our future forecasts”?

blcjr

And nothing on stereo behind, either.

Robert Bateman

Just have a look at the flux in my lower stitched graphic on this page:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin.htm
The long gentle dip in flux in 2008 culminating in July is purported to be from the orbital eccentricity of distance from Sun, making the reading lower.
Flux is flatlined for 2008, only the solar activity of late March and mid May showing the last gasps of SC23.
There is nothing going on up there.
Nothing, unless you count the co-rotating Equatorial Coronal Hole (Cyclops).

Including today, December 14, 2008 we have 491days without sunspots – possible minus those two days in August – according to NOAA solar indices log. When my counting is correct….Whether those 2 days, orginally pronounced blank by spaceweather.com, but later measured as sunspot days, are finally accepted as blank or as subspot days, will be decided by the Belgian SDIC. Those two days have spoiled the immaculate August, which Anthony has pointed to as a very long blank period. In August, there was also the last ‘all quiet alert’.
From spaceweather.com we have learned, that Dr. Hathaway has expressed his conviction that we are finally beyond the minimum between SC 23 and SC24. However, to my knowledge, he has sofar abstained from presenting another prediction for SC 24 maximum intensity, eventually to come.

hunter

When Hansen gave a big speech at the Houston Geological Society recently, he laughed at the solar cycle and, in typical fashion, cherry-picked some photos to ridicule the current state of the sun as a factor in the climate.

Dave Andrews

Crosspatch,
Hasn’t Dr Hathaway been saying SC 24 is about to start since 2005?
How long can one go on crying ‘wolf’?

To hunter (12:58:55)
We have a saying in Germany: who will laugh last, will laugh longest.

Robert Bateman

SC 24 has arrived, and the patient is DOA. Brain scans (flux) indicates comatose conditions. Should we plug in the life support system (AGW)?
Somebody should tap Hathaway on the shoulder, he’s wasting his breath trying to give SC24 mouth-to-mouth. What we really need here is a Coroner and an Autopsy. A priest (if the Sun is Catholic) to adminsiter the Last Rites.
Ok, I’m ranting, sorry.
I am wondering if the Co-Rotating Coronal hole will one day grow across the spectrum to be visible.
We could call it the Great Black Spot, along the lines of Jupiter.

Robert Bateman

Werner: Oh you mean those spots that only ‘Catania’ saw? That happended also on 9/11. I watched the Sun like a hawk every day, projecting, and I never found anything. I checked my seeing, 3 to 5 on the Bortle Scale. I can usually make out the tiniest of spot. Nada.
We should have had a 90 day spotless streak. 80 days minimum.
We wuz robbed!

Jaime

Till the wolf bites you…

It is clear that sunspots/solar activity and climate are linked (IPCC Report AR4 1.4.3 “The solar cycle variation in irradiance corresponds to an 11-year cycle in radiative forcing which varies by about 0.2 W m–2. There is increasingly reliable evidence of its infl uence on atmospheric temperatures and circulations…could cause surface temperature changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree celsius“. But if the relationship was direct with simple mechanisms then there wouldn’t be any debate today.
There was a long period of low sunspot activity (37 consecutive months with sunspot number under 40) in the 1920’s, yet the global surface temperature (HadCRUT3) continued to increase quite strongly into the 1930’s.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly
The low activity came in the middle of a warm PDO, whereas this time it comes at the start of a cool PDO. Does that make a difference? Until we know the mechanisms, only time (and more research) will tell.
PS. One of the many problems in the IPCC Report is that it ignored its own statement as quoted above, therefore the figures it uses for solar influence are totally unsafe.

Leon Brozyna

crosspatch (12:45:53)
Well said.
While SC23 seems to have finally passed from the scene, and other than a brief spurt of activity last month, SC24 seems to be mostly a no-show. Unless there’s a real surge in activity in 2009, the forecasts seem to be off the mark.

Douglas DC

Sitting here in NE Oregon (La Grande) at my place it’s 19F. 7in of snow and the
rest of the week single digits and more snow yup, Global Warming all right..
(It’s not even mid December.)

Trevor (tjexcite)

When do we start to worry that the sun will not go back to its “normal” self
And when does the plan start to jump start the sun.
“normal” because what is normal for something humans have only seen miniscule bit of time in its history

Hathaways forecast for cycle 24 will be accurate…….. since he modifies it regularly as the cycle 23/24 minimum gets longer and deeper. His last modification was in November 2008. Unless December wakes up in a spectacular way soon then the official minimum is going to be July 2008 at the earliest.

Robert Bateman

Sitting here in NW Calif. (Weaverville) the snow is starting to pile up, 2 more days of it and more snow in the forecast for Thu/Fri. Snow down to 500′ in mid Dec. If this is Global Warming, chain me to the wall.

Trevor (tjexcite) (14:22:59) :
When do we start to worry that the sun will not go back to its “normal” self
And when does the plan start to jump start the sun.
“normal” because what is normal for something humans have only seen miniscule bit of time in its history
I would start to worry if the sun is still asleep in the middle of next year. This would put us into a very long cycle 23by historic standards and begin to cast doubt on cycle 24 happening at all. You can find all the stats on this at Jan Jaansens excellent Solaemon web site

Robert Bateman

The SC isn’t going to wake up anytime soon. I’d give it at least 6 mos. to do that, looking at the Dalton cycles and other examples that fit the pattern.

Carlo

Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle
March 6, 2006
Predicting Cycles 24 and 25
The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml

Beating on David Hathaway is not productive. He has other masters [e.g. a paymaster]. In addition, he does [did!] believe in his own forecast. Lately [for obvious reasons] he has mellowed somewhat. We both attended a meeting [ http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa2008/pts.php ] last week and David opened with this talk:
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa2008/talks/MonI_Hathaway.pdf
Privately he is beginning to lean my way.

Patrick Henry

4:00 pm and the temperature is 0F here in Colorado. (Normal is about 43F.) I hate to think what winter will be like, if this is what autumn has in store.
It must be the CO2.

Robert Bateman (13:45:33) :
Think of the Livingston/Penn paper: ‘sunspots may vanish by 2015’. Then we are not in a Dalton-type, but in a Maunder-type minimum. Such disappearance of sunspot cycles for 70 years may happen again. The Maunder Minimum is more or less the heart of the so-called little ice age. It is not clear, whether the preceding Stroever Minimum also was of Maunder-type.
The theoretical models of sunspot cycles are mainly based on time series evaluations, similarly as the models for ENSO, PDO, AMO. It is very hard to do any better.
It is possible nowadays to study solar cycles on stars in the galaxy. There exist some data. If those stars are deliberately picked which are equivalent to the sun in size and age, one could make statistics, on how often Maunder-type minima occur. Such a program would last 20 to 30 years, before sufficient statistics was available.
But it could have been started 20 to 30 years ago – and has not been done, nor is it considered now.

james griffin

Can someone explain how Hansen is apparently ignoring all this?
I have no scientific trainng or qualifications but do have an enquiring mind and loads of common sense and when I went to school I clearly understood that the sun heated the planet
I also know that the Aqua satellite found no hotspots in the Troposhere…and should have if the AGW theory is correct.
Just how is Hansen bluffing his way through…please someone explain?

crosspatch

“And when does the plan start to jump start the sun.”
Anything happening right now with respect to photons being emitted from the sun happened inside the sun 10,000 or more years ago. It takes that long for the energy to work its way to the surface. Therefore, any “jump starting” would take 10,000 years to be felt on Earth.

Stephen Wilde

egrey,
A perfectly valid observation.
If one gets a quiet sun whilst the oceanic oscillations are positive then the oceans will prevail.
The significant changes to global atmospheric temperatures, whether up or down, always occur when solar and oceanic influences are in phase with one another.
!975 to 2000 or so both were in warming mode.
2000 to 2007 sun was declining but oceans still positive.
2000 to date and continuing both are now negative and the oceans overall becoming more negative as time passes.
The 2007 Arctic ice melt marked the last of the oceanic warming of the previous 30 years reaching the end of the line in the Arctic Circle.

David

Wow. Just wow. I have just started reading this site and both Anthony Watts and many of the people commenting are geniuses. I have to congratulate everyone here for simplifying this stuff and making the complex and often ablexxive situation with global warming as plain as the forehead on my face. Thank you again for your contribution to society.

Why did the picture make me laugh? I must be going mad…

Mike Bryant

We can solve it. We can control the sun. Do it for the children. It won’t be easy, but if we raise taxes high enough…

Robert Bateman

Werner: It could well be a Maunder pattern emerging. The problem with that is that there were no sunspots observed prior to Maunder Minimum. The telescope came 100 yrs too late. No pattern exists ( excepting proxy) that can be matched up to say yes, Maunder or no, Maunder.
Alas, I can only offer pattern matching to Dalton Minimum (SC 4-6).
The cycles of 4-6 were unaltered curves, the present (22-24) are forward leaning double-humps.
The overall length and shape progression matches, not the specific curve type.
I fail there.

crosspatch

“but if we raise taxes high enough”
Exactly, we aren’t spending near enough money on the sun. How can our leaders look at themselves in the mirror when they know fully well that they have been completely ignoring this critical resource. We must increase spending on the sun now or we will surely be the worse for it.
In fact, I suggest the UN mandate the purchase of “sun credits”. I just happen to have a source of them and would be happy to provide them to potential buyers on any commercial commodity exchange. With each sun credit purchased, industry can rest easily knowing that their money is well spent and they are doing the rest of the world a great service.
Remember, it is your duty to humanity to increase our spending on the sun!
Buy my product, please.

Jeffrey DeWitt

Hansen is doing what politicians do, picking and choosing his data to fit his theory.
One of the many things I find really disturbing about this whole global warming scare is what if these guys get what they want, we stop building new power plants or even worse shut down some of the ones we have now. Then a bunch of people start driving electric cars… and we go into another little ice age.
It will get awfully cold and dark.

Robert Bateman

Leif: I don’t mean to bash Hathaway, but when he’s taken 3 stabs at it with his model and came up whiffing, it’s time to move on. When he publicly moves on, he’s off the hook.
And if that means bucking the horse and the hand that feeds him, a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.

davidgmills

Lewistown, MT. -26F at 5:45pm local time on December 14.
Must be that global warming Hansen ahs been telling us about.

Bill Marsh

LOL @ Steven Hill
Dude, please tell me these posts are made with your tongue firmly in your cheek.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GISSvs_Hansen.JPG

Bill Marsh

Mike,
The solution is to revert to the late stone age, without fires. well, that and 80% of the population has to die off…

TerryBixler

Any thoughts on PDO an solar cycle relationship. My guess is that they are directly related but as to what the coupling is and how it works that is the question.

Old Coach

Basil (12:46:18) :
And nothing on stereo behind, either.
This is curious to me. Two of the last three times a sunspot has rotated around the rim, our stereo holography has indicated that there are no sunspots on the other side of the sun. I don’t know enough about the precision of our solar seismic measuring to know if this is absurd or expected.
Leif,
A little help here? Is this usually what happens when a sunspot rotates to the back side of the sun? Do they disappear immediately or do we lack the technology to detect them?

Lief – I have read your paper referenced earlier and I had not realised there was a problem of variability in SSN’s measurements in the recent past.. well up to 1950 anyway. Very interesting.
I don’t think the changes you suggest could be made to normalise the data to current pratice would make much difference to the current anlaysis of how we should view the “unusual” cycle 23/24. Is that right or am I missing something. As you say “time will tell”.
Hathaways article seems to say … well its all very difficult this prediction business and “time will tell”

Retired Engineer

Bill Marsh: 80% ? I think the last (or only) Stone Age had a population of a few hundred million at most. More like 95% have to drop out. If my vote counts, I’ll decline. We’re up to 7 degrees in this part of Colorado. At least it stopped snowing.
Nothing to worry about, just weather. Soon it will be warm with floods everywhere.
The Sun Shall Rise Again.

Nick Yates

Here’s a proxy reconstruction of the PDO back to 1650, about the start of the MM. Interestingly it showns there was a strong negative PDO during the MM, and again towards the end of the Dalton.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/biondi2001/biondi2001.html

gregg

I think this was asked above, but I’m not sure I understood the responses. At what point should we start to worry about the lack of sunspots (i.e. if x months/years from we are still not seeing sunspots, things could get interesting). If that’s a simplistic question, I apologize.

Graeme Rodaughan

Bill Marsh (17:01:08) :
(Speculation): Pre agriculture, and Pre fire, – Human Population probably under 10 million world wide living brutally short lives as v.simple hunter gatherers.
10M is approx 1/6th of 1% of 6B. So die off would be 99.8% of the current human population.
Hollywood disaster stuff

David (15:55:17) :

Wow. Just wow. I have just started reading this site and both Anthony Watts and many of the people commenting are geniuses. I have to congratulate everyone here for simplifying this stuff and making the complex and often ablexxive situation with global warming as plain as the forehead on my face. Thank you again for your contribution to society.

If you’re finding all this clear, I’m impressed. Clearly we need to send you
over to http://climateaudit.org ! (A fine site, but quite technical.)
There are a few (just a few) webpages that are decent introductions to the
subject, they’ll help you get further up to speed. A couple are
Science, Method, Climatology, and Forgetting the Basics (my page), and Curious Anomalies in Climate Science by Lucy Skywalker. The latter has many good links.

Graeme Rodaughan

OT.
There is some evidence from genetics (link not handy) that the human population bottlenecked down to approx 3000 individuals approx 60,000 years ago.
v.simple PreAgri and PreFire lifestyles leave the population vulnerable to extinction.

Steven Hill

Bill Marsh (16:59:01) :
LOL @ Steven Hill
Dude, please tell me these posts are made with your tongue firmly in your cheek.
No Bill, I have been converted over since Obama was voted in, he can’t be wrong and is always right! (smile) I can see just how smart Al Gore is now! WOW, what was I missing? Go Al go…..fire up that jet plane and heated pool! The Carbon Credit checks are going to start coming in anyday now! WooHoo
The poor?, the hell with the poor, they can dial 1-800-BAI-LOUT when the heat bill hits $1K a month.

crosspatch

“A little help here? Is this usually what happens when a sunspot rotates to the back side of the sun? Do they disappear immediately”
I believe it was in the process of disappearing as it was rotating out of sight. Of the cycle 24 spots we have seen so far, most have tended to be short-lived. Few have made the full trip across the face of the sun.

MattN

“Any thoughts on PDO an solar cycle relationship. My guess is that they are directly related but as to what the coupling is and how it works that is the question.”
My thoughts exactly. What is the coincidence that the sun goes dormant and the PDO flips at same time. My experience as an engineer says there is virtually no such thing as a coincidence.

AnonyMoose

The solution is to revert to the late stone age, without fires. well, that and 80% of the population has to die off…

The former will take care of the latter.