The Sun today
Solar cycle 24 still getting a slow and very delayed start. This is the third one of these (that I know of) this past year.
From SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center) in Belgium: http://sidc.oma.be/products/quieta/
:Issued: 2008 Dec 14 1156 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/quieta #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # From the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): "ALL QUIET" ALERT # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# START OF ALL QUIET ALERT ....................... The SIDC - RWC Belgium expects quiet Space Weather conditions for the next 48 hours or until further notice. This implies that: * the solar X-ray output is expected to remain below C-class level, * the K_p index is expected to remain below 5, * the high-energy proton fluxes are expected to remain below the event threshold. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# (h/t to sunspotter)
“And when does the plan start to jump start the sun.”
Anything happening right now with respect to photons being emitted from the sun happened inside the sun 10,000 or more years ago. It takes that long for the energy to work its way to the surface. Therefore, any “jump starting” would take 10,000 years to be felt on Earth.
egrey,
A perfectly valid observation.
If one gets a quiet sun whilst the oceanic oscillations are positive then the oceans will prevail.
The significant changes to global atmospheric temperatures, whether up or down, always occur when solar and oceanic influences are in phase with one another.
!975 to 2000 or so both were in warming mode.
2000 to 2007 sun was declining but oceans still positive.
2000 to date and continuing both are now negative and the oceans overall becoming more negative as time passes.
The 2007 Arctic ice melt marked the last of the oceanic warming of the previous 30 years reaching the end of the line in the Arctic Circle.
Wow. Just wow. I have just started reading this site and both Anthony Watts and many of the people commenting are geniuses. I have to congratulate everyone here for simplifying this stuff and making the complex and often ablexxive situation with global warming as plain as the forehead on my face. Thank you again for your contribution to society.
Why did the picture make me laugh? I must be going mad…
We can solve it. We can control the sun. Do it for the children. It won’t be easy, but if we raise taxes high enough…
Werner: It could well be a Maunder pattern emerging. The problem with that is that there were no sunspots observed prior to Maunder Minimum. The telescope came 100 yrs too late. No pattern exists ( excepting proxy) that can be matched up to say yes, Maunder or no, Maunder.
Alas, I can only offer pattern matching to Dalton Minimum (SC 4-6).
The cycles of 4-6 were unaltered curves, the present (22-24) are forward leaning double-humps.
The overall length and shape progression matches, not the specific curve type.
I fail there.
“but if we raise taxes high enough”
Exactly, we aren’t spending near enough money on the sun. How can our leaders look at themselves in the mirror when they know fully well that they have been completely ignoring this critical resource. We must increase spending on the sun now or we will surely be the worse for it.
In fact, I suggest the UN mandate the purchase of “sun credits”. I just happen to have a source of them and would be happy to provide them to potential buyers on any commercial commodity exchange. With each sun credit purchased, industry can rest easily knowing that their money is well spent and they are doing the rest of the world a great service.
Remember, it is your duty to humanity to increase our spending on the sun!
Buy my product, please.
Hansen is doing what politicians do, picking and choosing his data to fit his theory.
One of the many things I find really disturbing about this whole global warming scare is what if these guys get what they want, we stop building new power plants or even worse shut down some of the ones we have now. Then a bunch of people start driving electric cars… and we go into another little ice age.
It will get awfully cold and dark.
Leif: I don’t mean to bash Hathaway, but when he’s taken 3 stabs at it with his model and came up whiffing, it’s time to move on. When he publicly moves on, he’s off the hook.
And if that means bucking the horse and the hand that feeds him, a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.
Lewistown, MT. -26F at 5:45pm local time on December 14.
Must be that global warming Hansen ahs been telling us about.
LOL @ur momisugly Steven Hill
Dude, please tell me these posts are made with your tongue firmly in your cheek.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GISSvs_Hansen.JPG
Mike,
The solution is to revert to the late stone age, without fires. well, that and 80% of the population has to die off…
Any thoughts on PDO an solar cycle relationship. My guess is that they are directly related but as to what the coupling is and how it works that is the question.
Basil (12:46:18) :
And nothing on stereo behind, either.
This is curious to me. Two of the last three times a sunspot has rotated around the rim, our stereo holography has indicated that there are no sunspots on the other side of the sun. I don’t know enough about the precision of our solar seismic measuring to know if this is absurd or expected.
Leif,
A little help here? Is this usually what happens when a sunspot rotates to the back side of the sun? Do they disappear immediately or do we lack the technology to detect them?
Lief – I have read your paper referenced earlier and I had not realised there was a problem of variability in SSN’s measurements in the recent past.. well up to 1950 anyway. Very interesting.
I don’t think the changes you suggest could be made to normalise the data to current pratice would make much difference to the current anlaysis of how we should view the “unusual” cycle 23/24. Is that right or am I missing something. As you say “time will tell”.
Hathaways article seems to say … well its all very difficult this prediction business and “time will tell”
Bill Marsh: 80% ? I think the last (or only) Stone Age had a population of a few hundred million at most. More like 95% have to drop out. If my vote counts, I’ll decline. We’re up to 7 degrees in this part of Colorado. At least it stopped snowing.
Nothing to worry about, just weather. Soon it will be warm with floods everywhere.
The Sun Shall Rise Again.
Here’s a proxy reconstruction of the PDO back to 1650, about the start of the MM. Interestingly it showns there was a strong negative PDO during the MM, and again towards the end of the Dalton.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/biondi2001/biondi2001.html
I think this was asked above, but I’m not sure I understood the responses. At what point should we start to worry about the lack of sunspots (i.e. if x months/years from we are still not seeing sunspots, things could get interesting). If that’s a simplistic question, I apologize.
Bill Marsh (17:01:08) :
(Speculation): Pre agriculture, and Pre fire, – Human Population probably under 10 million world wide living brutally short lives as v.simple hunter gatherers.
10M is approx 1/6th of 1% of 6B. So die off would be 99.8% of the current human population.
Hollywood disaster stuff
David (15:55:17) :
If you’re finding all this clear, I’m impressed. Clearly we need to send you
over to http://climateaudit.org ! (A fine site, but quite technical.)
There are a few (just a few) webpages that are decent introductions to the
subject, they’ll help you get further up to speed. A couple are
Science, Method, Climatology, and Forgetting the Basics (my page), and Curious Anomalies in Climate Science by Lucy Skywalker. The latter has many good links.
OT.
There is some evidence from genetics (link not handy) that the human population bottlenecked down to approx 3000 individuals approx 60,000 years ago.
v.simple PreAgri and PreFire lifestyles leave the population vulnerable to extinction.
Bill Marsh (16:59:01) :
LOL @ur momisugly Steven Hill
Dude, please tell me these posts are made with your tongue firmly in your cheek.
No Bill, I have been converted over since Obama was voted in, he can’t be wrong and is always right! (smile) I can see just how smart Al Gore is now! WOW, what was I missing? Go Al go…..fire up that jet plane and heated pool! The Carbon Credit checks are going to start coming in anyday now! WooHoo
The poor?, the hell with the poor, they can dial 1-800-BAI-LOUT when the heat bill hits $1K a month.
“A little help here? Is this usually what happens when a sunspot rotates to the back side of the sun? Do they disappear immediately”
I believe it was in the process of disappearing as it was rotating out of sight. Of the cycle 24 spots we have seen so far, most have tended to be short-lived. Few have made the full trip across the face of the sun.
“Any thoughts on PDO an solar cycle relationship. My guess is that they are directly related but as to what the coupling is and how it works that is the question.”
My thoughts exactly. What is the coincidence that the sun goes dormant and the PDO flips at same time. My experience as an engineer says there is virtually no such thing as a coincidence.
The former will take care of the latter.