Author Archives: erl happ

About erl happ

I am a winemaker and grape-grower with a strong interest in climate. I was interested enough to try and discover the common thermal characteristics that are seen in great vineyard locations and did a lot of work with hourly temperature data from around the world. Climate sets the limit on what can be achieved in the vineyard. I became interested in climate change when I noticed the growing season temperature falling in our part of the world, the south west of Western Australia. That set me on a quest to work out why. Soon, it became apparent that parts of the Southern Hemisphere like Antarctica and Southern Chile had been cooling for fifty years or more. My experience in analyzing temperature dynamics for vine sites and working out just how much heat these plants need to bring their fruit to maturity gave me a focus on sourcing data and figuring out what has been happening on a regional scale, both at the surface and in the upper atmosphere. I think there is room for a subject called historical climatology. We can learn a lot just by looking at what has happened over long periods of time. Good data sets are readily available on the net. All one needs is a little curiosity, a facility with spreadsheets and a lot of determination.

High level clouds and surface temperature

Guest post by Erl Happ The orbit of the Earth’s around the sun is slightly eccentric. The closest point is called the perihelion. On January 4th the Earth is just 147,098,291 km away from the sun. Aphelion occurs July 4th … Continue reading

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Posted in clouds | Tagged , , | 138 Comments

Cloud cools

Guest post by Erl Happ This post was generated in response to the Christopher Monkton thread. It is not a criticism of Christopher Monkton but of our tendency to imagine that artful mathematicians (I am not one) are sufficiently sophisticated … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, clouds | Tagged | 113 Comments

Where is Science?

Guest post by Erl Happ The Southern Oscillation Index is a reference point for the strength of the Trade winds. It represents the difference in atmospheric pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. In figure 1 the SOI is the red line … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 146 Comments

Climate disaster, declining rainfall, rising sea levels

Guest Post by Erl Happ The subject of this post is climate change in the place where I live. The climate has changed in the last sixty years and there is a widespread notion that man is at fault. It’s … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 51 Comments

A climate change dynamic

Guest post by Erl Happ The presumption that ‘the science is settled’ is incorrect. This post aims to give readers an understanding of the dynamics of the coupled circulation of the stratosphere and the troposphere at the poles that drives … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic | 29 Comments

The character of climate change part 4

Guest post by Erl Happ This post is best read after viewing parts one, two and three that set the scene for what is described here. I noted in parts 1 and 2 that variability in global temperature is greatest … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change | 101 Comments

The character of climate change part 3

Guest post by Erl Happ Here’s a hypothetical: Let’s imagine that we have an atmosphere of two parts.  The first 10 km of the atmosphere has no greenhouse gas.  The second 40 km has a greenhouse gas incorporated. In the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change | 117 Comments

The character of climate change part 2

Guest post by Erl Happ What is the utility of the globe to humanity at this particular point in the evolution of the Earths disparate climatic regimes? Has there been an improvement or deterioration in recent times. To answer these … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change | 37 Comments

The character of climate change part 1

Guest Post by Erl Happ Figure 1 records global temperature as it runs between its minimum in January and maximum in July. Vital information is lost when we reduce the data stream to a computed mean (maximum plus minimum/2). But … Continue reading

Posted in Climate_change | 64 Comments

Earth’s changing atmosphere

Guest Post by Erl Happ This article investigates the sources of natural climate variation.  This is a long post but it’s a big subject. Before you get half way through, your perception of the way things are, will have changed. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , | 143 Comments

Something topical

Guest post by Erl Happ The Northern Hemisphere is having an old fashioned winter. I thought it might be of interest to look back at history for any lessons that might be there. I think that we already have enough … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 70 Comments