UPDATE: Latest GFDL model output suggests Bastardi could be right, see below.
UPDATE2: New information from Bastardi here shows 4th of July nightmare is shaping up to be true.
The Case for Rapid Development Feedback of a Potential Tropical Storm: Arthur.
Guest essay by Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell Analytics.
In the old days, one never had to worry about anything but hitting the forecast. But times have changed. With an agenda out there to take any weather event that attracts attention and turn into into a reason that an AGW driven atmospheric apocalypse is upon us, one has to make sure the physical grounds are stated before hand for why the event can occur.
We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why. To refresh your memory, a look at the ECMWF 200 mb pattern Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, indicates why this can deepen so much, and as a matter of fact is in a prime area to do so.
The Wed AM outflow channel is developing to the northwest, with north winds on the east side. The storm position is marked by the X on the map below:
Thursday morning:
Finally, Friday morning…Even here it is still in the “upward motion” quadrant of the jet to the north (right front entrance) though by this time the best conditions start to fade. But by this time the center has battered the outer banks.
The seawater, like the end game of the last AMO in the 1950s, is very warm along the east coast.
from: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif
Again this warm seawater is a product of the natural cyclical function of the AMO in its mature stage.
You can read about that here: http://patriotpost.us/opinion/26136
As I posted on it, and the Weatherbell.com preseason forecast outlined our great concern about in close development/intensification this season, a product of the overall climatic pattern we are in (again similar to the 1950s).
Storms coming to the coast in their intensification stage will often use frictional effects to feedback and intensify. A large powerful , mature hurricane in the same position might weaken, its expanse and interaction with the trough causing an extensive area of rain cooled air to be pulled in to the storm. But a smaller storm may actually intensify, since it is not yet large enough to pull in the rain cooled air and the frictional affects, may tighten the bands up. The large scale pattern that may weaken a major storm, may be conducive to deepening a smaller one.
Look at it this way. If you have 2 people, one used to 3000 calories a day, one used to 1000 calories and they sit down to a 2000 calorie meal every day for a week, the larger person would lose weight, the lighter gain weight. The common thread of this is rarely recognized in storms. But the smaller the storm, the better the chance it can deepen. Think of Katrina approaching Florida as a small storm with ideal conditions for development.
She deepened right to the coast. But when she got very large, a cat 5, in the same place the much smaller Camille in 1969 was a cat 5, she started to weaken, while Camille maintained the core winds right to the coast. My point here being that what is good for the goose is not always good for the gander, and this storm has alot going for it.
Lets take a similar example: Hurricane Alex in 2004 which battered the outer banks and was worse than the forecast from official sources had, with wind gusts over 115 mph reported.
The track of Alex in 2004:
Alex exploded in 42 hours from a 35 kt minimal TS to 85 kt storm. Notice the similar 200 mb pattern:
00z Aug 2 2004
00a Aug 3 2004
00z Aug 4,2004
By the way, a storm in the article above, Gerda in 1969, also “exploded” up the east coast in spite of interaction with an approaching trough. A first, with smaller storms, these troughs help ventilate the storms in the northwest quad. The smaller the storm, the tougher the forecast situation.
In addition, El Niño seasons are known for in-close deepeners. The strongest May storm on record in 1951 was Able, in a warm ENSO. Audrey was the strongest storm on record in June, 1957. Interestingly enough, in El Niño seasons, many of the first storms are strong ( more examples Betsy, 1965, Alicia 1983, Andrew was coming off the 91-92 El Niño and 2004 was an El Niño season, the year of the aforementioned Alex!
But if this does explode (again we have been on top of this…) the first alert for the HURRICANE threat on the outer banks to clients, then public followers, was Saturday), it has nothing to do with .04% of the atmosphere. It has everything to do with the physical reality of the pattern, which we have seen before. Since we see a similar set up, we have to be on guard against a similar event.
There is nothing mystical or magical about it. That it would grab headlines of a major resort area on arguably the biggest summer holiday of the season, means the threat of spinning it for an agenda is there. I cherish the day when the only kind of spinning we have to deal with is what the atmosphere does, not what people using the atmosphere for their agenda spin it for.
There is a why before the what in a case like this if it does deepen, and it has nothing to do with global warming/climate change/AGW.
UPDATE: Latest GFDL model shows the speed, position, and central pressure forecasts for Friday, July 4th.
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Thanks for the explanation. We are northwest of the OBX, so we may get rain, but from the looks of it, not much wind. It will be interesting to see how it develops.
Been following Joe B. for nearly a decade now, starting on accuweather now wb. I respect the man as one of the best long ranger forecasters out there. He’s without peer WRT pattern recognition. I can also tell you that he’s a storm monger. His record when it comes to specific storm prediction is spotty, always erring….and I mean always….on the extreme side. Of course he might well be right. Just suggesting you factor that in…
I’d hate for this to ruin folks’ 4th at OBX, but if it can bring some much-needed rain to Central VA (and other nearby areas) it won’t be all bad.
@Eustace – it was all bad – not a drop around here (but a few blocks away they got a brief shower). It could have been worse. But Arthur was more hype than storm.
I remember hurricane/not hurricane Sandy which hit New York being first brought up on WUWT five days before anyone even talked about its potential. I immediately went to the model forecasts and saw that yeah there was a potential for a left-turn hurricane to hit NY based on on the forecast pressures. I think it was the weatherbell guys who made that forecast. Listen up.
The way the Outer Banks stick out, they are a hurricane magnet.
Recently the National Park Service mentioned they were going to move the stones that were at the base of Cape Hatteras’s original location before the lighthouse was moved. Environmentalists said this was because of sea-level rise. As if any barrier island is static until recently.
Blackbeard the pirate patrolled these waters because he knew how dangerous the waters were due to the sand bars. Blackbeard knew the sand, the pirate hunters did not. The warm Gulf Stream current builds in the sand, storms remove it. There is a town called Nags Head. Locals would tie a lantern around a donkey, which they called a nag. Ships would see the lantern and think it was a distant lighthouse and sail toward it. The ships would crash on the beach and the locals plundered the ship. The recently re-opened Boddie Island lighthouse was once an island separate from the Nags Head community and was once adjacent to the ocean. Not anymore. There is an inlet called Oregon Inlet. The inlet was formed after a powerful 1846 hurricane. The first ship to discover the new inlet was named Oregon. The state constantly dredged Oregon Inlet to keep it safe for ships to pass through. The never ending cycle of the Outer Banks is hurricanes and Nor’easters destroy and the Gulf Stream both builds and destroys.
I love the Outer Banks. Our family used to camp at the base of Cape Lookout lighthouse, back when it was owned by the Coast Guard and the only way to get there was your own boat. The only services provided were toilets, no showers and no electricity. The sand fleas were terrible. But what an experience, to sleep under a working lighthouse and nobody else is around. There is a lot of interesting history on the Outer Banks.
Bob, Have a great 4th in Myrtle Beach. Give our best to Frank for his Birthday. I am forwarding a Joe Bastardi (Weatherbell) long range weather report, just FYI. Likely to be far enough north to not cause you a problem, but, for what it is worth, Dick
95% chance it goes zipping out to sea and leaves New England alone, but I always stay on my toes, wary about the 5%. In the 1950’s New England got clobbered a lot more than has happened this warm AMO, and I’m not sure our luck can hold.
Keep an eye peeled for any “pumping up” of the high ahead of the storm, and any secondary low pressure along the front west of the hurricane, or any 500 mb strengthening of low pressure west of the storm as pressures further north in the upper air trough weaken. If that stuff starts to happen Wednesday or Thursday then Arthur could pull a 1954 Carol.
If this storm does rapidly strengthen and hit the Carolina Coast hard, I am sure CBS News will have a special on The Inconvenient Truth!
Thank you for the information Joe. I hope everyone on the outer banks is paying attention!!!
Looking at prevailing patterns im not so sure about this prediction.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-rb.html
Still fairly new at this type of weather predictions. IMHO there appears to be way to much wind shear even though the pressures appear to be in the ball park.
The “Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook” at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/302338_MIATWOAT.shtml indicates high (i.e. 80%) chance of a tropical depression (or worse) forming. The disturbance is currently approximately 80 nautical miles east of Vero Beach, Florida.
The main webpage is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Note that for ease of memorization http://www.hurricanes.gov redirects to it.
I guess the big question is what about the forming High pressure above Georgia? Will this pull the depression apart or will it feed it? It appears to be pulling it apart.. Time will tell…
Look like the disturbance is too close to land this time. Zygrib, another model for sailors, have it at about 30 knots with gusts at 40 knots when leaving the coast on Saturday heading northwest. This is however only one of this ‘computer games’ we learned not to have too much trust in after crossing the pacific last year. What they did best was tracking strong winds and storms. Weaker winds was about 10 % right !! not much. Usually overestimating to more wind than we got when the prediction was below 20 knots.
Hope you Are wrong, but suspect you are right.
We moved from South Florida to alternative base in NW Chicago suburbs last Wed, and this evening confronted weather warnings about possible 2″ hail and tornados. It is booming as I type. Just the same as in the 1980’s when I first moved from Germany to Chicago.
Weather is definitely a B*tch. Climate change, not so much. I could tell you about the time we barely made it back to the marina off Lake Mixhigan in my 37 foot sailboat before 85 mph straight line winds hit over a 4 July weekend… Let’s see, back in was it 94 or 95? The grown and married kids would know, since their memories are undoubtdly etched sharper.
Outer Banks folks, head to safety. it ain’t climate change, just weather. the warnings from better weather predictions save lives. Climate predictions don’t.
Does this mean Obama and the Warmistas are hopirng for bad news?
Hey Joe,
What would we do without you? Thanks so much for another greatly informative article.
The weatherman here this morning mentioned a storm off mexico. Will that one make it up north very far? Bring some rain in the form of monsoons? We sure need some rain.
Sheee-yit, Joe!
I sincerely hope it doesn’t develop as you have outlined (and supported with very good comparative data…).
Divine intervention?
Mac
I gather from recent work on ‘cycles’ that they have fallen out of favor by alarmists and sceptics alike ( analysts like Willis and others) . I had been using the 60 year cycle to “forecast” for recurrences and found it more reliable than the stuff climatologists have been forecasting. Cases in point: we heard ad nauseum during the recent Texas drought, floods on the Red River of the North a few years ago, western wildfires, cold in the Pacific NW, that they were the “worst in 60 years or so”.
During much expounding here on WUWT about hurricanes (and tornadoes I believe) in decline as a debating point against CAGW’s forecasts of expected increases, I cautioned that the 60 year cycle for the mid 50s would soon be upon us and we should be predicting increases ourselves to take the steam out of the CAGW crowd when inevitably we had another spate of these things so we weren’t playing catch up and having to argue this stuff belatedly. Anyway, one robin doth not a spring make, but I’m noting that Bastardi is talking about “… a product of the overall climatic pattern we are in (again similar to the 1950s).”If this turns out to be a big storm and it follows the track expected, put me down for some busy hurricane seasons over the next year or two. Emboldened, I might dig out my other predictions for the present decade on other extreme weather topics like floods, etc.
It all depends on the color of the sky in the morning.
Here is a totally cool thing thunderstorms can do – they produce gravity waves in the atmosphere seen by airglow.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/04/a-bullseye-in-the-sky-over-texas/360705/
I’ll be on Ocracoke Island from the 20th till the 27th this month. I love that place.
Is there any possibly that this storm could move northward and inward hitting D.C.?
This storm is of purely non-tropical
origin. The baroclinic transition has
been forecast beautifully by the ECMWF model.
Such storms rarely exceed minimal
hurricane intensity.