Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July

WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm surge will also be a huge factor if the storm follows the predicted path.

Bastardi writes:

[In the] latest ECMWF,  it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters!  Central pressure 966 millibars.

See the graphic:

 

Screen shot 2014-07-02 at 2.39.04 PM

panel_c_8

Simulated radar path:

hrrr_current_east

Path from Bastardi:

Arthur_1

[I'm advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. - Anthony]

Latest from NHC at the time of this posting:

WTNT31 KNHC 021742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
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76 Responses to Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July

  1. Rob Dawg says:

    “Dire,” “battering,” “ugly.” “A potential nightmare scenario.”

    So hard to keep up with all these technical terms.

  2. DontGetOutMuch says:

    I’m betting it wobbles a wee bit further East then the model and is weaker. Otherwise my OBX vacation in August is toast!!!

  3. Scute says:

    Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950’s? So tiring to read.

    I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.

  4. Ric Werme says:

    110 knots? The NHC is predicting a peak of 85 (mph!) Friday AM. Oh, I think the graphic is showing the maximum gust, not the sustained speed. Hmm, NHC says “max wind” – I think that’s highest 5 minute average or something like that.

    That’s a remarkably compact storm. Track is going to be important. Also, the forward speed will reduce the wind to the left of the track by quite a bit.

    REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:

    [In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.

    Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony

  5. Ric Werme says:

    Scute says:
    July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am

    > Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.

    They’re improving, some are up to the 1980s (monospace upper and lower case):

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021459.shtml says

    TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
    1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

    Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
    observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
    indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
    knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
    semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
    ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.

    The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
    the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
    warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
    the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
    the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
    the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
    tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
    very similar to the consensus of the models.

    Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
    from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
    accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
    Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
    the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
    NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
    coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
    forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
    require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
    area under hurricane watch.

    The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
    available at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Avila

  6. Been tracking storms since early 50s. If the storm center remains offshore, which is predicted now, it won’t be too bad – which is good. We all know that the right hand quadrants have the highest wind speeds and highest storm surge. If it tracks as predicted, the outer banks should be OK. If it veers left, watch out. Also if it hits left in conjunction with the high tide there could be major damage.
    But with the present track I don’t see any major problems.
    Just sayin…

  7. Joseph Bastardi says:

    Ric, I did say max gusts at 10 meters. The actual high gusts on the hires is 117 kts, but we cant display the HIRES in non weatherbell sites unless it is excerpted from weatherbell The steady winds look to be peaked over 80 kts on the model, but tough to say.

    No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house

  8. DesertYote says:

    Scute says:
    July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am

    Weather reports must be able to be sent over some pretty dodgy channels, thus 7bit ascii. The formatting provides consistency for the real consumers of the reports, who need to incorporate it into other products, often with little or no sleep. Getting creative with formatting, were the only goal is to make something showy for the public school educated populous, would become a hindrance.

  9. Kjetil Nesheim says:

    > Scute says:
    >July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am

    >Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the >1950′s? So tiring to read.

    The messages are still sent out on system that need a clear font. Like radio-fax or termal printers.

  10. Ric Werme says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:
    July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm

    Ric, I did say max gusts at 10 meters. The actual high gusts on the hires is 117 kts, but we cant display the HIRES in non weatherbell sites unless it is excerpted from weatherbell The steady winds look to be peaked over 80 kts on the model, but tough to say.

    Thanks for the clarification.

    No one said it wasn’t the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house

    Indeed, but I don’t live on the coast, so I mostly worry about floods, tall trees in saturated soil, and that sort of stuff. Not a problem with Arthur for anyone, he’s not going to hang around long.

  11. Mumbles McGuirck says:

    Scute says:
    July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am

    Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.

    I think NHC need to have a chat with a few app developers to get a handle on what good presentation looks like.
    ————————————————————————————————————————-
    Bwaahahahahaha ha ha… If some of the NHC hurricane specialists had their way, they’d still be using pencil, paper, and calipers. The National Weather Service is very hide bound and NHC even more so. If they can find a reason NOT to innovate or change things, then they won’t. It took them this long to get away from all UPPER CASE in their discussion, and still not all their products.

  12. Col Mosby says:

    Using all caps eliminates all those embarrassing capitalization errors, I suppose.

  13. Pamela Gray says:

    Ric, my grandparents always prepared for the worst. Even on a sunny day fishing just a couple miles from home. They grew up being taught that way of life by their parents, one of which took to the Oregon Trail as a young man, and the other took off as a toddler with family from the colonies to the wilderness of Missouri. Prepare for the long haul worst. And you might be able to say you lived to be a ripe old age.

  14. That annoys me too. It’s hard to read weather updates in all caps. I don’t read them, except for scanning. When will they change??

  15. Kenw says:

    is CNN on 24×7 Arthur watch yet?

  16. Maybe they could hire an intern (for free) to translate the updates from all caps to normal upper and lower case readable paragraphs…

  17. Emory says:

    Its a fortunate thing that the state engineers in NC weren’t able to find a way to close the new inlet (there were all kinds of rumors and such) that formed 2-3 years ago several miles north of Rodanthe, Old maps show there were 5 inlets between the VA border to Hatteras Inlet. Recent times there have been only 2. This newly formed inlet acts a pressure release valve when storms push water into the sounds as they approach and then push that built up water back at the Outer Banks once the storm passes as the winds shift to an offshore direction. It doesn’t take much of a storm to make a mess there and even weak storms have a way of finding something extra when the get near Hatteras.

  18. GeologyJim says:

    “Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950s? So tiring to read. ”

    If you’ve been paying any attention over the last week, it is clear that all the “crack” programming staff in USGovt climate/weather circles have been devoted to making “adjustments” to the USHCN temperature data.

    They can’t be everywhere at once, ya know.

  19. rgbatduke says:

    As I sit here typing this, I’m looking out through the Beaufort inlet at the Atlantic. There is a saltwater bay that extends up to around 50 feet from my seat, where there is a short seawall (around 1 foot above spring tide). I’ve pulled my boat, and we will batten down the hatches and all that, but the forecast is currently only for tropical storm force winds and some rain. I have no idea what the graphics above with the eye inside the outer banks are supposed to represent. Something unlikely, I think. We are currently expecting to have the 4th celebration “as normal”, unless they postpone it for a day if it is still windy/raining Friday evening.

    rgb

  20. Ric Werme says:

    Anthony wrote:

    REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:

    [In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.

    Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony

    I misparsed it. I read it like “110 knots and gusts at 10 meters!” I should have dwelled a bit more on the unlikelihood of Joe pointing out gusts at 10 meters and translated it into “gusts at 10 meters (height) greater than 110 knots,” but I didn’t.

    It takes a bit to get back into a hurricane season mindset, especially since I never needed it last year!

  21. brians356 says:

    Why does the 4th of July holiday make it a nightmare scenario? Are folks not in school or workplaces somehow more at risk? If anything, they’re more likely to be ready to evacuate. After all, the station wagon is all packed with food and gear, they just have to head west rather than east. Does the premise assume millions will be huddled on the beaches, unaware that a hurricane is approaching, and will be swept into the sea like lemmings? Or is the “nightmare” just a allusion to ruined holiday plans? Darn!

  22. Billy Liar says:

    Lucky they moved that Cape Hatteras lighthouse!

  23. brians356 says:

    [snip]

  24. u.k.(us) says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:

    July 2, 2014 at 12:22 pm

    “No one said it wasnt the gusts, but as you probably know, its gusts that blow the roof off your house”
    ===========
    Good point.

  25. Tom in Florida says:

    My wife will be flying out of Hartford Ct on Sat at 2 PM. Hope Arthur has passed by then and is far enough out to sea so as not to interrupt the flight.

  26. Caleb says:

    RE rgbatduke says:
    July 2, 2014 at 1:56 pm

    REbrians356 says:
    July 2, 2014 at 3:06 pm

    The nightmare scenario is that you have people arriving expecting only a tropical storm, and awaking the next morning and hearing there may be 110 mph gusts, They were tired the night before after a long drive and did not top off their gas tanks. There is only one bridge off the outer banks, and so the traffic is slow, and then stops as cars run out of gas. Then a hurricane storm surge of 10-15 feet not only closes the roads, but starts to submerge the cars jammed on those words. You fill in the blanks after that for yourself.

    Forewarned is forearmed. : :

  27. James at 48 says:

    Hurricane party dude … they ALWAYS turn …. /sarc

  28. brians356 says:

    Caleb,

    Your scenario assumes we do not live in the Information Age, and that a hurricane can sneak up with only 24 hours warning. I’d be curious to know just how many people in that storm, when asked, would honestly say “I had no idea there was a hurricane coming.”

  29. u.k.(us) says:

    On a lighter note, you could just chain it down like this:
    http://mountwashington.org/weather/comments/2014/070114-lg.jpg

    The link was found here:
    http://www.mountwashington.org/
    A fun website to visit.

  30. davidmhoffer says:

    [I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anth

    Lives are at stake and they are asserting their copyright? That goes beyond bizzaro. Words fail me.

  31. The Hermit says:

    Meh, the name ‘Arthur’ makes me think of Dudley Moore, and he was only like 5’3″.

    Nothing to worry about, folks.

  32. David says:

    OT, but noteworthy.

    This afternoon, the ISEE-3 team successfully commanded the spacecraft to fire thrusters and changed its spin rate.

    http://spacecollege.org/isee3/isee-3-engines-fired-for-spin-up.html

  33. Rich Bragonje says:

    Emory says:
    July 2, 2014 at 1:35 pm

    That inlet, called “New Inlet”, or new New Inlet, was caused by Irene. In the following 6 weeks, the NCDOT folks designed, contracted, got all the various approvals, and built a “temporary bridge’ across that inlet. Many kudoes to NCDOT for a job well done.
    Many locals call it the Lego Bridge. The inlet has been pretty much filled in for the last year. NCDOT is now doing the prep work for building the permanent replacement.
    There used to be an inlet in that vicinity, called New Inlet. I don’t remember which storm opened it, nor which one closed it.
    If you are interested, NCDOT has a site with a whole series of photos of the construction of the Lego Bridge. http://www.ncdot.gov/travel/nc12recovery/

    Rich

  34. clipe says:

    Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?inundation#contents

  35. TomD says:

    What is a gust “…at ten meters.?

    REPLY: 10 meters above the surface, standard anemometer height -A

  36. clipe says:

    The Hermit says:
    July 2, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    Meh, the name ‘Arthur’ makes me think of Dudley Moore, and he was only like 5’3″.

    Nothing to worry about, folks

    ‘Arthur’ was the name of the dog that, as the movie faded to black, was about to knock him of the stool he was standing on, with a noose around his neck, after he’d talked himself out of committing suicide.

  37. clipe says:

    knock him off the stool (chair?)

  38. Don K says:

    Scute says:
    July 2, 2014 at 11:44 am

    Why do all government sponsored memos use formatting that hasn’t been updated since the 1950′s? So tiring to read.

    Probably because they need to be compatible with the oldest piece of gear still in service on their network — which is likely pretty ancient. If I recall correctly the mechanical teletypes widely used at remote locations in the 1950s and 1960s. had only upper case.

    Then there is the issue of funding to rewrite software that works fine as is.

  39. clipe says:

    Apologies Hermit, I confused Dudley with Tom Conti in “Reuben, Reuben”.

    Reuben was the dastardly dog.

  40. Caleb says:

    brians356,

    just refer to the comment I was in part replying to. They were expecting a tropical storm. All you need to do is tweak the storm track 40 miles west.

    On the other hand, if you raise the alarm, and the storm shifts 40 miles the other way, you have just cost people hundreds of millions of dollars, for a breezy summer rain.

  41. Merrick says:

    The film did not fade to black – unless you saw an edited version for our new “kinder, gentler” world. There was plenty of kicking and thrashing filmed from about mid-torso down when I first saw the film.

  42. Merrick says:

    And the dogs name was Reuben, not the character. The character’s name was Gowan.

  43. clipe says:

    Merrick

    I saw the TV version and as I mentioned “Reuben was the dastardly dog.”

    Now back to regular programming

    http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc

    http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/cape-hatteras-lighthouse-southeast_5230/

  44. milodonharlani says:

    The Kill Devil Hills are pretty windy even out of hurricane season, which is why the Wright Brothers chose the area for their experimental flights going on 111 years ago. How time flies, so to speak.

  45. clipe says:

    http://www.surfchex.com/

    This one’s not live but refresh CTRL+F5 works pretty well.

    http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html

  46. Katie says:

    You have to be kidding. It is hilarious, but serious at the same time. Leave the reporting of disaster weather events up to the main stream media. There is no point in highlighting them here. Some people, who don’t understand the science, come here to read that the weather is not bad and the climate is stable. To read about these terrible events here must terrify them.

    I have noticed there is a lot more reporting of unusual weather events in the mainstream media recently and this could lead people to think there is climate change. Reporting it here only emphases this point.

    Leave the alarmist reporting to someone else. Don’t mention it here on this blog.

  47. clipe says:

    Watching the Holden Beach cam. Lots of traffic heading north with some heading west. Almost nothing southbound. Weather related? :wink:

  48. Ric Werme says:

    davidmhoffer says:
    July 2, 2014 at 4:21 pm

    [I’m advised that the ECMWF graphic originally here had to be taken down because of some bizzaro copyright rules on its use, I have substituted graphics, sorry. – Anth

    Lives are at stake and they are asserting their copyright? That goes beyond bizzaro. Words fail me.

    Others can do a much better job describing the ECMWF than I can, but they’re not an American gov’t agency that gives its product away for free, like the NWS or GPS system (note that the NCDC sells some of its data…).

    They’re based in England, but don’t think BBC and the TV tax.

    http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are says in part:

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states.

    ECMWF is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. This data is fully available to the national meteorological services in the Member States. The Centre also offers a catalogue of forecast data that can be purchased by businesses worldwide and other commercial customers

    If they gave away their products, they’d go bankrupt, so they don’t. OTOH, they also say:

    ECMWF’s annual budget is funded almost entirely by annual contributions from the Member and Co-operating States, according to a scale based on their gross national income.

    So if they worked out a deal where their members kept sending them money, but the ECMWF made everything public, perhaps after a couple hour delay, perhaps that would work.

    However, we are talking Europe and a few other local countries here. Some don’t like giving away their stuff for free.

  49. SIGINT EX says:

    From NOAA:
    8:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 2
    Location: 30.2°N 79.2°W
    Moving: N at 8 mph
    Min pressure: 990 mb
    Max sustained: 70 mph

    Still classified a Tropical Storm (not Monster Hurricane and an Aussi (Auz) paper called it).

    [rather,"as an Aussie paper" called it? .mod]

  50. trafamadore says:

    Hey Anthony, you miss the launch of CalTechs OCO-2 satellite? Successful.

  51. SIGINT EX says:

    Given the above, “I Spy” a linkage !

    “Our algorithm is working to our specifications for ‘other programs'” [NOAA Push-back in paraphrase],

    “Other program(s)”: ECMWF !

    :-)

  52. Bernal says:

    The biggest problem is with the rain. If the storm brings lots of rain the water level in the sound behind the banks can get a few feet higher than the ocean. The inlets, actually outlets, have a life span. They are “New” when they get dug out by a big storm and then they silt in over the years eventually forming an island on the sound side of the inlet. In a big rain the silted over inlets fail to let out enough water and so the waters of the sound dig a new channel bringing down a few houses.

    This will be the worst disaster in, like……ever, when it happens some day. The science is settled.Rising seas. Storm of the century.

    Okracoke Inlet Is home to one of my favorite literary oddities. In Hunt for Red October Jack Ryan brought the aircraft carrier sized submarine into Qkracoke Inlet and hid it from the Russians in the sound right where you can see people digging clams a hundred yards off shore in ankle deep water. He had to know that since he was from around there.

  53. Frederick Michael says:

    Yikes. Arthur is WAY to the west of where it was “supposed” to be at this time. From the weather radar, we can see it’s slightly north of the latitude of Jacksonville, but at the longitude of Georgetown, SC. Anthony’s forecast map had it well east of there by now.

    It could still curve, but … Of course, there’s a huge continental shelf off the coast of SC that might weaken it greatly. Here’s to hoping.

  54. Eric Dailey says:

    The holiday is “Independence Day”, the 4th of July is only a date. The name means something.

  55. george e. smith says:

    Well not to worry.

    News on my computer says NASA has launched a satellite that is going to save the planet from CO2.

    Good luck on that project.

  56. george e. smith says:

    “””””…..Ric Werme says:

    July 2, 2014 at 2:14 pm

    Anthony wrote:

    REPLY: It helps to read what Bastardi wrote in the top of the article:

    [In the] latest ECMWF, it’s an ugly storm at tip of Hatteras with 110 knots plus gusts at 10 meters! Central pressure 966 millibars.

    Seems pretty clear to me. – Anthony ……”””””

    See silly me would have read that as ………with 110 knots plus gusts , at ten meters…….

    Well who gives a rat’s these days about puncture ation; I mean , like it interferes with texting important messages !!

  57. Katie says:

    George, I will have to call you out on your bullshit. ‘News on my computer says NASA has launched a satellite that is going to save the planet from CO2.’.

    I have just checked and not one news article has said that.

    However, always happy to be corrected. Post a link that proves your statement and I will concede.

  58. clipe says:

    Dialup alert – This page requires a broadband connection and a computer with at least 512MB of memory.

    Last Updated: 10:56 PM Jul 02 EDT NO LONGER RECORDING

    http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?157

  59. davidmhoffer says:

    Ric Werme says:
    July 2, 2014 at 6:51 pm
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Thanks Ric. I was unaware they were private. That explains their behaviour. Doesn’t necessarily excuse it though. In dire situations (which this may become) responsible corporations do the right thing.

  60. davidmhoffer says:

    Katie says:
    July 2, 2014 at 8:27 pm
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Methinks George was being sarcastic.

  61. Katie says:

    Ah ‘The Just Joking’ defense which someone else had to make.

  62. Ric Werme says:

    Katie says:
    July 2, 2014 at 8:27 pm

    George, I will have to call you out on your bullshit. ‘News on my computer says NASA has launched a satellite that is going to save the planet from CO2.’.

    I have just checked and not one news article has said that.

    However, always happy to be corrected. Post a link that proves your statement and I will concede.

    Can I play? Even if I keep my tongue in my cheek?

    This idea that the satellite will save us from CO2 is scurrilous. Just because it’s named OCO-2 doesn’t mean it has anything to do with CO-2 or even OCO, it actually an abbreviation hiding it’s true purpose: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (2 because of that unpleasantness with the first satellite, may it rest in pieces). Oh – this satellite is a “carbon copy” of the original. Except I think they fixed the faring release.

    Yes, it’s tracking carbon! Like dirty soot! Slippery graphite! And maybe best friend diamond. Even that Gray Lady says so, why, the title of http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/science/nasa-launching-satellite-to-track-carbon.html is NASA Launching Satellite to Track Carbon


    A little more seriously, the word is, from http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/newsoco :

    NASA Launches Carbon Mission to Watch Earth Breathe

    NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide [pls ignore the previous word] at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. PDT) Wednesday. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) raced skyward from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. Approximately 56 minutes after the launch, the observatory separated from the rocket’s second stage into an initial 429-mile (690-kilometer) orbit. The spacecraft then performed a series of activation procedures, established communications with ground controllers and unfurled its twin sets of solar arrays. Initial telemetry shows the spacecraft is in excellent condition.

    So, to make up for the lost satellite, they launched this one twice! “at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. PDT)”

  63. dp says:

    I wonder if there’s any chance of a seiche motion in any of the bays along the coast there, particularly Chesapeake bay. It looks like conditions are right and Murphy leaves nothing to chance. And it’s just one more thing they won’t need. Best wishes to all for a safe evac or ride-out.

  64. Ric Groome says:

    Katie & David: actually, George is correct. Yahoo’s newsfeed headline(from my iphone) for the article reads, “Nasa launches satellite to save Mother Earth”. The article itself does not use that terminology. Yahoo is being, well, Yahoo.

  65. Rolf says:

    Zygrib still has it at 60 knots with gusts included up to 76 knots. Still far from 110 knots. This at 0600 UTC time Friday morning.

    This probably come from NOAA so I guess that estimate may be run by climate models and probably is not accurate enough …

  66. Doug says:

    All caps is a way of shouting alarm! crisis!

  67. Jeff says:

    Just a note to the folks upset about all caps – chances are these transmissions are intented for a number of devices, some of them NON-WEB-BASED, e.g. teletypes or the like. One thing worth noting is such communication methods are often more robust (less sophistication means less to go wrong). I’ve heard that they are also less prone to problems in case of severe electrical events (say a mini-Carrington or some such).
    If it’s really too hard to read, just copy and past it into M$Word or a processor of your choice, and set the case to sentence case. Copy, paste, couple of clicks, done…all of ten seconds.
    Finally, the pros that use this info are probably used to it, and have been using this format for years. Probably are able to spot things quickly based on the format….
    Someone mentioned 7-bit – another benefit, it uses minimal bandwidth, which would also be helpful in difficult situations (or remote locations) where there’s not much bandwidth to go around. Not everyone has the latest and greatest, nor is it always necessary.
    Some folks want something new, whether or not it’s better: I’ll take something better, whether or not it’s new….

  68. dp says:

    The distribution of weather information includes some rather old but necessary technology.
    http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/rfax.pdf

    RadioFax is alive and well but it works best with source images that are very scannable at low resolution. Hence the all-caps typeface.

    You can capture these on your computer if you are sufficiently geeky:
    http://www.blackcatsystems.com/software/multimode/fax.html

  69. JamesS says:

    I wouldn’t worry too much about the Outer Banks vacationers being caught in “the nightmare scenario.” I’m a seasoned OBX visitor myself, having started vacationing there in 1986 and missing only a few summers since then.

    The difference between vacationing there and other beaches is that there aren’t many hotels down on the island. There’s a couple here and there, but mostly it’s private beach houses rented by the week. To get a beachfront home you’d better have your reservations in by March or so, meaning there’s not a lot of “Hey, let’s go to Hatteras for the weekend” – type vacationing. Up at Nags Head and Kitty Hawk there’s a lot of hotels, but down island not so many, and those are pretty small.

    What you have then, are people who’ve shelled out pretty good money (probably around $3K for a beachfront for a week), and have been watching the weather forecasts for the past three weeks as their rental comes up. There’s no way that this week’s crowd got down there unaware of the storm kicking up in the Atlantic. They’ve been watching the Weather Channel grimly, cursing that pretty spiral of clouds as it refused to die, and were no doubt expecting the notice to be slipped under the door of their rental or the call from the rental office announcing the evacuation.

    My family was kicked off the island twice by hurricanes, and another time we beat feet at the crack of dawn on our out-Saturday (most rentals are Saturday to Saturday) to catch low tide so that Rt. 12 would be above water. It was — barely; the road surface stuck up above the water about eight inches or so for miles on end.

    I just checked the OBX webcams, and even the Oregon Inlet bridge looked clear. Traffic was moving in both directions, with no backups at all. Looks like everyone took it pretty much in stride.

  70. Barbara Skolaut says:

    “is CNN on 24×7 Arthur watch yet?”

    Do they have time? Have they given up on the Malayasian aircraft yet? (Never watch them, so I don’t know.)

  71. bw says:

    Where are the sustained winds at hurricane speed?? The offshore buoy with the highest speed is off Charleston, about 42 knots. The definition says a hurricane is sustained 64 knots at the surface.
    The National Buoy Data Center has many buoys near the storm, but off North Carolina the winds are in the 30 knot range.

  72. JimBob says:

    I seem to recall from my childhood a map of the Outer Banks with the legend ‘The Graveyard of Ships’.

  73. phlogiston says:

    “Projection” – what a loathsome Orwellian word. What it means is:
    A prediction which does not need to be true. It cannot be proved false by any possible outcome. Any events that follow, regardless of their nature, will attest to the correctness, the brilliance, the moist loveliness, the dominant social position and the immunity from criticism of the projectors. To be one that makes projections that are officially recognised is to have attained the status of an oracle beyond questioning or disbelief.

    Does anyone out there have the balls to make a good old-fashioned “prediction”? If falsifiability has gone then so has science.

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