Model predicts more storm surge, but they use what appears to be a fake photo in the press release:

From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert

More hurricane surges in the future

The extreme storm surge from Superstorm Sandy in the autumn 2012 flooded large sections of New York and other coastal cities in the region. New research shows that such hurricane surges will become more frequent in a warmer climate. Credit: Gordon Tarpley.

By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.

Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.

New model for predicting cyclones

“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute

He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.

The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?

Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.

10 times as many ‘Katrinas’ 

“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.

“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.

###

For more information please contact:

Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/

============================================================

I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:

Liberty

Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg

…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:

Liberty_storm_PSK_Capture

The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.

Exif_SOL_Capture

Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.

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147 thoughts on “Model predicts more storm surge, but they use what appears to be a fake photo in the press release:

  1. Just to provide some scale, for folks who may never have had the opportunity to physically visit Liberty Island: The wave appears to reach at least as high as the top of the pedestal. That’s roughly 50m above the “normal” water level.

    The highest wave recorded in New York Harbor occurred during the recent Hurricane Sandy, and was about 10 meters in height.

  2. what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………

    Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase

    Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other

  3. What does “Photoshop tag found” mean? Sounds to me as though they found evidence it was photoshopped, But the site provides no readme or other explanation.

  4. Alarmists must use “alarming” pictures…. Faked temp reconstructions must have faked pictures to go along with them… ;)

    Wasn’t Mann’s hockey stick accompanied by the faked polar bear on the ice floe or was that a different article?

  5. That image is from one of the apocalypse moves I cant remember which one Deep Impact or 2012 or Armageddon or something but I know I have seen that before. Could have been on e of the History/Discover channel “specials” about mega tsunami or an impact or “super” volcano events.

  6. What causes the frequency and magnitude of storms on Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune if 0.04% of CO2 causes an increase in the frequency and magnitude of storms here on Earth?

    When the media use this style of Armageddon imagery to make their point it goes to show how weak their main argument was to begin with.

  7. sadbutmadlad says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
    ==============
    they did a really bad job of smudging out the body boarders too…..should have left them in…..that would have been hysterical

  8. They use models to predict climate, then they use the output of those models to predict storm strength, then they use the output of those models to predict storm surge.
    Criminey, it really is models all the way down.

  9. Boston12GS says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    Looks to me like the wave tops are a good 10 to 20 meters above the top of the pedastal.

  10. Come one, “it appears fake”? Was there any doubt? I think that’s the photographic equivalent of hyperbole. Yes, I agree, with the caption supplied its completely ridiculous and they deserve to be pilloried. Weren’t there enough actual pictures of damage from Sandy?

  11. The storm surge of every hurricane / tropical cyclone / typhoon is extreme. The fact that the frequency of these storms has declined as the planet warmed completely negates the results of this model.

    I call bullshit!

  12. “By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer.”

    So the climate was warmer in the past. If it was warmer in the past without our CO2 input then… Oh what the hell all of you know the questions.

  13. Reminds me of the Discovery channel bit on mega-tsunamis. If the shoulder of one of the volcanoes in the Canary islands (I’ve forgotten which one) were to slide catastrophically into the ocean, you might get something like this. Such slides have been documented in the Hawaiian Island chain, but from what I’ve read, the geology in the Canaries is only conducive to a more gradual slide with much more muted consequences.

  14. a wave that goes halfway up the Statue of Liberty, and it *might* be photoshopped? ROFL!

    That’s like showing a wave that’s washing cars off the Golden Gate Bridge.

    It’s like that movie that had a giant octopus picking people out of the streets of SF and eating them. Well, okay, it’s not as cool as that was.

  15. Latitude says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
    what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………

    Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase

    Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other
    ————————————————————————————————————————
    Apparently, it becomes extreme if you put your hat on backward, yell a lot, and wear ‘shades’

    “Aaaaah … basmati”
    As to the study, they took two bad models then averaged them together. Of course, storm surge is so much more than storm strength. It is also bathymetry and storm speed and direction. But why bother with details when you can put everything in a blender and make margaritas.

  16. I just love that “Katrina’s per decade” Y-Axis. I don’t think anyone in 1975 was saying “Holy crap, I just went through 1/3 of a Katrina!”

    That photo looks kind of like a scene from “Deep Impact”.

  17. Gee, I thought the “Katrinas per decade” was a clever new unit of alarm-i-ness

    Perhaps volcanic aerosols will now be quantified in “micro-Krakatoas per cubic meter”

    [heh-heh]

  18. This paper is for April 1, right?

    Let’s consider the Atlantic basin. Let’s say that in an average year there are 10 named storms (1950-2000 ave = 9.6). To get a 10-fold increase in Katrina’s there would have to be an average of 100 named storms in a season, or in a peak season, 280 named storms (record high activity to date = 28). That is more than one named storm would have to form every other day during the season, on average, or nearly two every day in a record season.

    It ain’t gonna happen. Ever.

    Good April Fools. Ha ha.

  19. I have only been to New York once. Isn’t this wave traveling from the wrong direction if it was a storm surge. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the ocean towards the front of the statue? This wave is traveling from the river or landward side of the statue.

  20. My understanding is that tropical and subtropical cyclonic storms decrease in number and intensity as climate warms and that there is a plethora of data and reserch supporting my view. What sort of tricks (assumptions) did the modeler employ to overcome these data and research?

    Also, I recall that Sandy’s wind speed at land fall was less than hurricane force. Katrina’s damage resulted in large part from faulty engineering and construction of the flood control system and its failure at New Orleans and the surrounding Mississippi Delta area.

    I hope that Dr Maue, Joe Bastardi and others with similar qualifications and experience will comment on these subjects.

  21. The photo cred is to Gordon Tarpley. You can google him and find he does a lot of photo shop type work.

  22. The original picture is of a wave. there are two surfers in it near the bottom. Quite an exceptional shot and it’s huge. Difficult to pin down the photographer as it appears on hundreds of websites. There is some ambiguity on a number of photography sites that imply the image is by the site host but it can’t be all of them. It’s certainly not taken by the guy given credit so I can only assume that he’s responsible for the photoshop composite.
    That’s the sort of work I used to do a lot and I have to say it’s a pretty poor job when you look at it closely. Either very rushed or someone is unfamiliar with the tools. The clone work to remove the surfers from the picture is particularly shoddy.

  23. This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…

  24. The caption makes it sound real: “The extreme storm surge” emphasis on THE. That should put them into trouble (hot water, maybe?). Good looking pic, though. Sadbutmadlad pointed out the wave on it’s own (comment at 1:17), with a link – well done to find it, by the way. :) I notice they took the surfers out.

    Wish it was in colour. It looks great with the Statue of Liberty in there. :)

  25. AnonyMoose has nailed it. original photo of the surf is by Jacob Cockle. The photo of liberty would be impossible to track down. Could be any of a million generic shots out there. I guess it will be one of the first few appearing in a google image search because photoshoppers are lazy. First image they find that suits there needs gets used. Always without permission. I know, I’ve done it a lot and had it done to me. It’s never an issue unless used for commercial purposes.

  26. that graph is hilarious- i see he has approximately one (1) katrina storm for the decade including 2005. at least he got that right.

  27. The Surfer Dad website above appears to be the originator of the wave image with the bodyboarders in it. I sent him a tweet, hope he responds…

  28. “Superstorm Sandy”…what a crock. Got to hand it to these guys, they’ve successfully made global warming all about extreme weather in the absence of any actual warming. Neat trick.

  29. It could be a screen cap from one of the disaster movies from the last decade or so, maybe 2012?

  30. AnonyMoose, you got the correct source. I was only doing a quick images.google.com search. I was also rushing a bit to get in quickly. Jacob Cockle is the real photographer and does not deserve to have his work destroyed with abysmal photoshopping.

    Anthony, a tip – use http://images.google.com when searching for images or the source of a photo.

  31. The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.

  32. Bill Illis says:
    March 18, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.
    ——
    This is an excellent point Bill. And while no specific monster attack or monster battle can be attributed, it’s the sort of thing we’d expect to see more often in a warming world.

  33. ‘The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future.’ they learn one thing , make your BS claims for along way ahead that way you will be dead by the time others get to call them out for the BS they area .

  34. From the article:
    “Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows.”
    =======================================================
    I thought the major portion of the Katrina flooding damage was lack of maintenance to the barriers and pump failures. As I understood it, the surge was more about where it hit rather than the size of the surge and was coupled with the rain filling an impoundment that was allowed to deteriorate.

    Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Those who can’t remember what happened 8 years ago just make it up as they go.

    P.S. Forget Jaws, Waimea, Pipeline. Surf’s up in New York! Just watch out for the big thingie out there in the middle on the way in.

  35. I don’t know about the USA but damn those French storms. Brrrr!

    Abstract
    Magnitude and frequency of extra-tropical North Atlantic cyclones: A chronology from cliff-top storm deposits

    Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018210006747

  36. It’s all down to that blasted, toxic trace gas co2.

    Abstract
    Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v447/n7143/abs/nature05834.html

  37. Sun heats seas, seas heats air, air dosen’t heat seas nor CO2. There is always warmest water in the surface in seas which sun heats. Greenhouse effect in open therodynamic system is biggest joke i have ever heard, because in that system gases acts like coolers, not warmers. More heat from the sun the more atmosphere cools down and transfer energy to upper atmosphere and space. Atmosphere is an incredible regulator, many engineers are envy of that incredible regulating system in such very complicated system.

  38. Since the end of the Little Ice Age in the ~mid 19th century the world has been warming. What has been one of the effects? It’s worse than we thought.

    Abstract [1999]
    Twentieth-Century Storm Activity along the U.S. East Coast

    An analysis of the hourly tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast shows
    a considerable interdecadal variation but no discernible long-term trend in the number and intensity of moderate
    and severe coastal storms during this century. However, sea level rise over the last century has exacerbated the
    damage to fixed structures from modern storms that would have been relatively minor a century ago.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282000%29013%3C1748%3ATCSAAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    [pdf]

    We are doomed.

  39. Definitely a photo shop picture. i made a quick comparison of this photo to some photos i had of the Statue of Liberty and some pictures I found from almost the same angle, no way for that immense wave break to be where it is shown. Also there are no trees grown up around the statue in the B&W photo, which there are currently. Makes me think that B&W photo is quite old. I can email you the comparison photo, i don’t think i can post it in this reply.

  40. Hey – give em a break – they’re just trying to make a point.

    After all, it’s okay to exaggerate: “… I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous [global warming] is…”

    -algore
    grist.com interview, 09 May 2006

  41. Researchers from Copenhagen, China, England – yeah that makes sense /sarc
    “previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer”. “But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future?” Huh?
    Guys – storm surges occur – yes. But the magnitude is not a simple function of temperature.
    Doesn’t look like your models factor in coastal topography, or adjust for statistical probability of surges coinciding with high tides?
    Reminds me of an old “Hancock’s half hour” sketch where the left-footed player gets put on the right wing.

  42. “New research shows that such hurricane surges will become more frequent in a warmer climate”…..but it’s not a warmer climate! What are these muppets on about?

  43. @Jimbo,

    “The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.”

    Oh no… although these authors won’t ever say or write it… Leroux figured this a while ago!

  44. The future is looking catastrophic. It’s worse than we thought. Head for the hills.

    Abstract
    A 1500 yr record of North Atlantic storm activity based on optically dated relict beach scarps

    Our data provide new evidence of increased storm activity (most likely frequency and/or intensity of extratropical storms) during the past 500 yr, which was preceded by a relatively calm period lasting ∼1000 yr.

    http://www.intl-geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/35/6/543.short

  45. The photo of the statue is the wiki creative commons picture here

    the trees have been cropped from the image but i just overlayed it in photoshop and looking closely he’s forgotten to clone out the people on the upper balcony. It’s a perfect fit.

  46. Good find Anthony and good call on the faked photo. Total fake.

    A good way to track down a photo is to use tineye.com. VERY handy site.

    Paste a photo URL into the search window at Tin Eye. I did this with the wave/SOL image above and Tin Eye was still able to find many (many) copies of the “original” wave photo, sans SOL.

    I sent the author an email questioning the use of the photo. Why not? ☺

    Willis has taught us all to ask more questions.

    CAS
    On the frozen plains of western Canada where spring is not even on the radar

  47. Niels Bohr Institute
    University of Copenhagen

    What a hideous degradation of a great scientist’s name!!

    These extreme Alarmists are shameless and contemptible.

  48. ” Lance Wallace says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:18 pm

    What does “Photoshop tag found” mean? Sounds to me as though they found evidence it was photoshopped, But the site provides no readme or other explanation.”

    ———————————————————————————————

    When a picture is opened in photoshop and then saved photoshop adds tag information regarding photoshop. So if an image file is checked it will generally tell you if its been through at least one round of photoshop. I say generally because there are ways to strip the photoshop tag back out of a file.

    But if you find the photoshop tag in photoshop someone has done something to it. I generally just crop or do something similar but others can make it sing and dance much like the referenced image where a photo of a big surfer wave was combined with the statue of liberty.

  49. This paper is based on more Nintendo Calamatology Models. Sh!t in, sh!t out. Why can’t these mother fvkers get out into the real world and observe? I get the impression they are just too lazy and would rather get paid for playing computer games. I despise these climate criminals. They are costing us a lot of money and time. People are suffering because of their lies.

  50. According to his graph, the 1950’s should be about 0.5 Katrina’s / decade

    Carol 1954 cat 3
    Edna 1954 cat 3
    Hazel 1954 Cat 4
    Connie 1955 Cat 3
    Audrey 1957 cat 4
    Donna 1960 Cat 4

    Katrina 2005 Cat 3
    There is something extreme here, but I don’t think it has anything to do with Hurricanes.

  51. The web cam on the Statue of Liberty still has not been
    turned on again. I used to check the view of Manhattan
    but now they loop some old footage. They’ll probably
    blame it on the sequester.

  52. It’s not unlike the mega tidal wave in The Poseidon Adventure that capsized the huge ocean liner. It was a cresting breaking wave in the middle of the ocean. Doesn’t happen that way. Why are they so quick to put these obvious bullshit scary photos out? Find the reason in the quotes:
    “We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis…” -David Rockefeller, Wealthy Leftist
    “A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States… [we] must design a stable, low-consumption economy in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth.” -John Holdren, Obama’s Science Czar
    “The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.” -Daniel Botkin, ex Chair of Environmental Studies, UCSB
    “It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” -Paul Watson, Greenpeace
    “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing …” -leftist Senator Tim Wirth, 1993
    “We have to offer up scary scenarios… each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective [lying] and being honest [ineffective].” -Stephen Schneider, lead ipcc author, 1989
    “Only sensational exaggeration makes the kind of story that will get politicians’ attention.” -Monika Kopacz, Atmospheric Scientist
    “Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” -Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC
    “I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of … how dangerous it is.” -Al Gore
    “We routinely wrote scare stories…We were out to whip the public into a frenzy about the environment.” -Jim Sibbison, EPA PR Official
    “[Scientists] are making up their facts to fit their conclusions. They’ve already caught them doing this.” – Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator
    “[in twenty years {2008} ] the West Side Highway [and thus most of Manhattan] will be under water…” -James Hansen, 1988
    “[Inaction will cause]… by the turn of the century [2000], an ecological catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” -Mustafa Tolba, 1982, ex UNEP Director
    It seems pretty clear what’s going on. Their never ending fear mongering sounds like a broken record, and is flat out bullshit. Why don’t the people know? The people need to know!

  53. Blind Freddy @ 1:43 got it right. Liberty faces the ocean and would get the wave head on if this were a storm surge. When we got our huge snow storm about a month ago here in Boston there were wind gusts to 95 mph and a very large storm surge. Minots Light was covered all the way to the top, 87 feet, with ice from the breaking waves. The difference from the photoshopped picture is that when the waves were this high in that storm, the air was full of water and spray. There was no clear air anywhere as occurs in front of the kind of breaking wave that surfers ride.

  54. Frank K. says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…

    A low information scientist is also known as a Charlatan

  55. Since the paleo storm record taken from sediments deposited in the Atlantic storm basin indicate that when things were cooler there were more frequent and more strong storms, I think we can toss this study in that large yet over flowing bin of AGW hype.

  56. oooops hit enter too fast.
    So we have a fake photo to sell a phony report.
    Another day in the trenches of the AGW hype industry.

  57. The other problem is that the photographer would have been risking his life on a boat out in NY harbor to take the picture. What do you do if a wave that high hits your boat? Prayer is not a working option.

  58. I remember watching the news coverage of the hurricane(tropical storm at landfall) hitting NY. A reporter stood by the water and over a period of a couple hours the surge rose ~6 feet. Not quite the scale in the photo is it.

  59. I believe this photo is from the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, pretty funny stuff of doom and gloom, abrupt climate change. South Park did a spoof on this movie, Two days before the day after tomorrow FYI

  60. H.R. says:
    March 18, 2013 at 2:20 pm
    I thought the major portion of the Katrina flooding damage was lack of maintenance to the barriers and pump failures. As I understood it, the surge was more about where it hit rather than the size of the surge and was coupled with the rain filling an impoundment that was allowed to deteriorate.

    The surge from Katrina devastated the Mississippi coast. However, New Orleans got all of the news coverage.

  61. All temperatures combined into one model. Huuu, that sounds scaring. How does the poles influences the hurricanes in the tropics?
    Maybe he should concider that a tenfold increase would also transport a lot of heat up in the atmosphere and in that way cool the ocean.
    There is a good reason why hurricanes are not produced constantly.

  62. Sandy was minuscule compared to the storm surge from the 1886 Gulf of Mexico storm that destroyed Indianola Beach, a city of 15,000 (almost all of whom died), flooded areas as far as 30 miles inland and rewrote the map of Copano Bay, in Texas.

    Obviously, more ignorant scaremongering. The sad part is that there will be plenty of uninformed, gullible folk who will think the picture is real and take it as gospel, though there’s a little problem, since such a wave has never happened, therefore there isn’t one to take a picture of (but facts like that don’t bother the alarmies)..

  63. From those abstracts above it sounds an awful lot like less storms means a warmer climate and more storms means a cooler climate, at least for century-scale intervals. Can’t absolutely know the cause and effect, but storms generally cause more heat transfer to high altitudes.

  64. It could be worse, the sea could have been portrayed as highly acidic and the statue would quickly disolve.

  65. Was he study paid for by a major insurance carrier, looking to raise rates again? I really liked the beach wave breaking wash in the foreground? out in the middle of the harbor?

  66. Steve C says:
    March 18, 2013 at 4:18 pm

    Nice photo shopping. I still haven’t found the hidden polar bear .
    Left side of statue , third fold up , can just bearly make out the head !

  67. I think it is from the (inadvertantly funny) movie “The Day After Tommorrow”.

    A movie based on the Art Bell? Book on the coming superstorm?

    The story line is that the Global Warming triggers the next ice age by creating 3 mega-storms that merge into one massive system. The cold air in the upper atmosphere plunges down to earth flash freezing everything xcept for the hero, the hero’s kids (who survive by burning the books in the library of Congress) and of course the Artic Wolves from the zoo…

  68. paddylol says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:46 pm
    My understanding is that tropical and subtropical cyclonic storms decrease in number and intensity as climate warms and that there is a plethora of data and reserch supporting my view. What sort of tricks (assumptions) did the modeler employ to overcome these data and research?
    ———————————
    They said it was new research so I ass u me they somehow found somewhere in our very cold past something which proves there was a period that was somewhat warmer than today.
    Imagine that.
    I wonder which period? Did they say?
    I wonder how Mikey missed it?
    cn

  69. Plot Summary.

    The Day After Tomorrow (2004) More at IMDbPro »

    ad feedback
    As Paleoclimatologist named Jack Hall is in Antartica, he discovers that a huge ice sheet has sheared off. But what he does not know is that this event will trigger a massive climate shift that will affect the world population. Meanwhile, his son Sam is with friends in New York to attend an event. There they discover that it has been raining non-stop for the past 3 weeks, and after a series of weather-related disasters begin to occur over the world, everybody realizes the world is entering a new Ice Age and the world population begins trying to evacuate to the warmer climates of the south. Jack makes a daring attempt to rescue his son and his friends who are stuck in New York and who have managed to survive not only a massive wave but also freezing cold temperatures that could possibly kill them. Written by John Wiggins

    A look at what the world would look like if the greenhouse effect and global warming continued. At the center of the story is a paleoclimatologist (a scientist who studies the ways weather patterns changed in the past), Professor Jack Hall, who tries to save the world from the effects of global warming while also trying to get to his son, Sam, who was in New York City as part of a scholastic competition, when the city was overwhelmed by the chilling beginnings of the new Ice Age. In addition to all of the other challenges Dr. Hall faces, he’s also going against the flow as humanity races south to warmer climes, and he’s nearly the only one going north. Written by austin4577@aol.com

    When global warming causes world wide disasters and leads to an ice age, a climatologist named Jack Hall tries to rescue his son Sam who is trapped in New York. Jack must go from Washington D.C. to New York, but on the way some things happen. Can Jack rescue his son? Written by mexiryan@yahoo.com

    A paleoclimatologist, Professor Jack Hall, discovers that due to global warming, the polar ice caps are melting, which is lowering ocean temperatures. This triggers a massive climate shift which causes many natural disasters and eventually a new ice age. Too late everyone realizes this, and as they try to evacuate to the warmer south, for half of the northern USA, and Canada, it’s already too cold to go outside. Meanwhile, Jack’s son, Sam, is in Manhattan on a trip with some friends. Jack heads north to try and rescue his son, but the cold is a powerful adversary. Written by Anonymous

  70. See here also. Quote

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/day-tomorrow-stills-masquerade-as-384125

    Disaster Movie Stills Masquerade as Hurricane Sandy on Social Media
    12:36 PM PDT 10/29/2012 by Seth Abramovitch
    SHARE
    Comments (7)
    145

    Photos of 50-foot waves pounding Lady Liberty are actually shots from “The Day After Tomorrow.”

    The famous landmarks of New York City have always proven irresistible targets to disaster filmmakers, but now that a true disaster is about to befall the region — in the form of historic Hurricane Sandy — lines between fact and fiction are blurring.
    OUR EDITOR RECOMMENDS

    ‘Daily Show,’ ‘Colbert Report’ Cancel Monday Shows Due to Hurricane Sandy

    Hurricane Sandy: Celebrities Prepare for the Storm

    Jimmy Kimmel Cancels Monday Brooklyn Show Due to Hurricane Sandy

    Hurricane Sandy Delays Earnings Reports for Martha Stewart, Sirius XM

    HMS Bounty Abandoned Amid Hurricane Sandy
    Photos of the Statue of Liberty withstanding the crashing force of 50-foot waves have begun to circulate throughout Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and other popular social media, leading the easily duped to post and re-post the disturbing images.
    STORY: Hurricane Sandy in NYC Cancels Filming Permits, ‘Anna Karenina’ Premiere, Louis C.K. Show
    In one widely circulated image, the NY1 local news logo has been superimposed in the lower left corner, alongside a chyron readings “LIVE CAM 12:12 PM,” making it seem as if the images are being broadcast on a reputable news channel.
    It’s a terrifying image — but it’s also a computer-generated one, plucked from The Day After Tomorrow, the 2004 blockbuster thriller from disaster maestro Roland Emmerich about the catastrophic effects of global warming on the planet.
    Weather-watchers searching out authentic images of Sandy’s force won’t have much longer to wait, however. Photographed stretches of a flooded Atlantic City, N.J., have already given us a glimpse of the destruction to come: the city’s director of emergency management calls it the worst storm the city has ever seen.
    A camera positioned atop the famous monument offers a Liberty-eye’s-view of the storm’s effects on the shores of Ellis Island. So far, she’s wet, but no giant waves are in sight.
    STORY: Jimmy Kimmel Cancels Monday Brooklyn Show Due to Hurricane Sandy
    The storm is expected to make landfall on Monday night, and currently has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, up 15 mph since last night. The winds extend 175 miles from its center, making it as broad a hurricane as to ever hit the country. Surges as high as 11 feet will hit cities from Delaware to Connecticut.
    The storm has resulted in the cancellation of dozens of theater performances and TV show tapings in New York City, including the first night of Jimmy Kimmel’s much-hyped return to Brooklyn.
    Twitter: @SethAbramovitch
    Email: seth.abramovitch@thr.com

  71. Yesterday a geoscientist explained to me that storm surge is caused by low air pressure making the sea rise. Visibly it is more like an extreme high tide. Waves are an optional extra. Waves are a function of water depth and wind speed, I think. The photo is ridiculous and irrelevant.

  72. Frank K. says:
    March 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm
    This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…
    ——————————
    I was thinking that might be a “chicken / egg” type question but then I thought of something else coming from a chicken which might be a better comparison.
    cn

    [Butt what else is round and comes out of the rear orifice of a chicken? Mod]

  73. Well, they’re unable to wring their hands over the old bunk, so now it’s time to manufacture something new to get everyone worked up over.

    Anyway, Anthony, don’t get too excited about this so-called Photoshop killer. It seems to yield some curious results. I pointed it at two pictures of a CGI Jeep I’ve been working on. The first returned a result indicating, “Photoshopped: contrast adjusted.” The second noted “No manipulation detected.” In fact, both images came straight out of my renderer on my Linux box without ever having come near Photoshop.

    Yeah, it’s not like anyone needed image analysis to prove that picture of the Statue of Liberty getting clobbered was a fake, but see if you can find something more reliable before you find a picture that does.

  74. I think a scientist should be able to distinguish between data and the output of a computer model.

    The geological record tells us that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have decreased in frequency over the past 8000 years, at least in the sedimentary record along the shore of the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, that is a very short period of time to develop a trend, but I seem to be dealing with people who think one can discern a trend in the climate over just a few decades, which is preposterous. This is the Earth they are dealing with, which has a climate history at least 4.2 billion years long.

  75. Art Bell and Whitley Strieber wrote “The Coming Global Superstorm” on April 27, 2004.

    Quote:
    ” THE EXTRAORDINARY NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER.

    A DIRE WARNING FOR OUR FUTURE.

    The climatological nightmare portrayed in the motion picture The Day After Tomorrow isn’t just a fantasy scenario.

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen some of the most violent weather on record, from devastating tsunamis to killer hurricanes. But scientific evidence suggests “the big one” is still in the making — will you be ready?

    THE COMING GLOBAL SUPERSTORM

    WHAT WILL TRIGGER IT?

    Global warming is about to cause the North Atlantic current to drop to a more southerly route, sending Arctic air barreling into overheated temperate zones.

    WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE?

    Sudden, dramatic changes in climate all over the world. . . . The most severe blizzards in history. . . . 100 mile-per-hour winds. . . . Shocking death rates.

    WHAT CAN WE DO TO STAVE IT OFF?

    Plenty. Talk-show host Art Bell and #1 bestselling author Whitley Strieber, our leading investigators of unexplained phenomena, offer a wealth of viable solutions in this brilliant examination of modern environmental science and weather-related disasters. We can take action today to avoid

    THE COMING GLOBAL SUPERSTORM.”

    Source: http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Coming_Global_Superstorm.html?id=q6pDFI7EiRsC

    ======================
    This book was made into a Movie and a Book.
    “The Day After Tomorrow” – Now a major motion picture from Twentieth Century Fox. A novelization by Whitley Strieber based on the Motion Picture Screenplay. Story by Roland Emmerich.

    http://books.google.com/books?id=I3smcyvl7q0C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false

  76. One disturbing thing that this study fails to consider.
    For those of us who live in the Northeast US we are painfully aware that that while the Hurricane Sandy was no longer a Hurricane when it hit New Jersey the storm intensity was augmented by a lingering NE storm that had already battered the coast for days which combined with the hurricane to cause an extraordinary surge in NY harbor and along the Jersey coast. It was this combination and the long sustained duration that caused the extent of the flooding, not the Hurricane alone.
    Hurricane Sandy is not an example of increasing hurricane intensity impact on the East coast.

    Those who know the power of Northeast storms are well aware that they alone can wreck havoc comparable to a hurricane. See below:

    http://njmonthly.com/articles/lifestyle/storm-warning.html

    In that NE storm of 50 years ago, Long Beach Island in Ocean County was split into three sections and the impact was greater except that now there are many more expensive structures on that Island today.

  77. @scarletmacaw says: (in response to H.R.)
    March 18, 2013 at 4:11 pm

    “The surge from Katrina devastated the Mississippi coast. However, New Orleans got all of the news coverage.”
    ==============================================================
    Yup. You know your recent history. Mississippi got hit pretty hard.

    However, as relates to the article, Russ R. (March 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm, above) pointed out

    (Russ) “According to his graph, the 1950′s should be about 0.5 Katrina’s / decade
    Carol 1954 cat 3
    Edna 1954 cat 3
    Hazel 1954 Cat 4
    Connie 1955 Cat 3
    Audrey 1957 cat 4
    Donna 1960 Cat 4 ” (End quote)

    Katrina was no more extreme than any of those and probably less extreme than Galveston. Why aren’t their projections in Galvestons? Hurricanes happen and storm surges happen, but since 2005? Not at the rate shown by their model, near as I can make out.

    OT but pertinent note to all: My software got automatically updated a few days ago and since then I now have spell check and autocorrect. Oh joy!… NOT. It $crew$ up any formatting I use by leaving off the right arrows and correcting the format commands. DANGIT! I haven’t found where to turn off autocorrect yet, but admittedly, I haven’t searched very hard for the off switch ’cause I can’t find anything in Windoze 8. Will some kind soul plant a clue for me where to find it? Thanks.

  78. Blind Freddy nailed it. Lady Liberty faces SE, toward the open sea. The fake wave comes from the landward side, and that’s only half a mile of open water. If they had to make a fake, they might at least have made a plausible one!

  79. Hmmm, here is what appears to be a picture of the wave. (sans statue of liberty but with two surfers).

    I was on this site (http://magicseaweed.com/photoLab/viewPhoto.php?photoId=152831) where someone was trying to sell it A commentor cried bunk, saying this photo was in the national papers in Jan 2008 with a different photographer credited. He provides two links:

    “Dat shot was in the national papers in Jan 2008 wiv some article about nutters… my friend emailed it to me in Fuerte t see if I really wanted t come back… and voila here’s the Metro link she sent complete with Jacob Cockle’s name http://www.metro.co.uk/news/83958-monster-sized-waves-smash-britain and the Sun link http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article688812.ece Hope they paid u well!”

    Title “Monster sized waves smash Britain” Jan 15, 2008.

    “Surfers off Penzance were treated to massive waves but narrowly escaped serious injury in the process.

    The sea off the Cornish coast was whipped up into 50ft waves providing a rare opportunity for some winter sport.

    College student Jacob Cockle, 22, said: “Penzance never gets waves like this. No-one has ever seen anything like it.

    “I was out there for ages watching the surfers. It is so unusual. Other parts of Cornwall are used to big waves – but nothing like this has ever been seen before.”

    “This is as much about extreme weather as extreme surfing.”

    Photography student Jacob, who is studying at Truro College, was on land as he witnessed two surfers wiped out by the waves on Sunday afternoon.”

  80. Okay. I am going with the 50 ft Cornwall wave photo from January 15, 2008 being the original source for the photoshopped picture (as opposed to the movie.)

    The movie is close, but this wave appears to match the wave in the picture precisely.

    The Daily Mail has a good series of pictures of what happens next to the two surfers.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-508186/Caught-camera-Incredible-moment-surfers-hit-50ft-wave-Cornwall.html

    —————————
    This photo may also be photoshopped or faked.

    Here is what is suspicious. The photographer (Jacob Cockle) was in the Daily Mail on December 27th, 2008 as the SURFER surviving a 30 foot freak wave. In this case, the photos were taken by his brother Joe. Jacob is a photography student at Tuoro College.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1102030/Pictured-The-dramatic-moment-surfer-cheats-death-trapped-pier-30ft-wave.html

  81. I thought everyone new what happened to the Statue of Liberty after the disaster. I’ll just leave this here:

  82. Just for laughs, Googled Gordon Tarpley (credits on picture) and found a talented illustrator with lots and lots of photo shop work. Makes me go hmmmmmmmm.

  83. Jacob posted the photo on EarthShots.org on Feb 3, 2008 under the title “Riding the Storm”. He says he used a Nikon D200 with a Nikon 50mm f1.8 lens. The photo is 600×500 pixels. Surfers are Lee William and Charlie Thompson

  84. Blind Freddy nailed it.

    That is an example of superposition created by backwash. As a bodyboarder, not shopped out from above, that zone is where you get extreme air timing a launch at the superposition. The landing can be a brutal freefall into a flat with no wave to be found though.

    Since BF pointed out it was going the wrong way, that would make the bigger wave the actual backwash. The wave in was HUGE! :D

    Maybe shopped a “little” /sarq

  85. What do you think? Does that look like the source picture that they Photoshopped the Statue into?

    Weather forecast by the Met Office for that day in England.
    Winds of up to 60-70 mph
    Flood alert the day before “a month’s rainfall in 24 hours”
    20 flood warnings in south-west England
    Glasgow got 40 mm rain in a 24 hour period.
    Milford Haven in West Wales got 25 mm rain.
    very high levels in River Thames.
    gale force winds and 16 foot (5m) seas.

  86. A minor point – it’s ‘Celsius’, Anthony, not ‘Celcius’

    REPLY:
    Minor point, it’s a press release, I didn’t write it – Anthony

  87. Well, taking a chance having not read the 100+ comments yet, here are my obs.

    Lets, take a peek at what we see.

    The indications from the physical positioning, within the picture, of the wave and following waters indicates, even if a real picture, a rogue wave. An inaccurate one at that. The following water is not positioned properly for any large wave event. Just physics. The image used is certainly a very large wave and a scary one at that!

    Albeit, coast line depth, shape, storm eye size, play a huge part in storm surge impact for any storm.

    The interest surrounding the Sandy incident is focused on the wrong thing.

    It was the “Fetch” in the end. Just goes to show you the inertial impact of nearly 1,000 miles of moving water.

    Here is a trivia question for you.

    How low of a pressure is needed to raise a hurricane storm surge dome one foot at the center?

  88. We really should be grateful for photoshop, without it, these script kiddies would be finger painting.

  89. @Nicholas James

    You appear to be getting hung up on what the photo might or might not be. Just read the early comments.

    It’s been established that the wave image off of the coast of Cornwall by photographer Jacob Cockle.

    The image of the statue of liberty which has been pasted into that is from the wikimedia commons image available from the article on the statue.

    The work appears to have been done ( and quite badly in my opinion, but this is my area of expertise as an adobe certified expert) by the person given photo credit in the press release. Which is something that often annoys me ( as a photographer ) as he took neither photograph used for the compilation image produced.

  90. “Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air.”

    Of course warm air does nothing without even colder air above so expect stronger storms as this globe cools from the warmer 80’s and 90’s. That is what they really mean (intentionally). It’s going to be colder while we have convinced you it is warmer and we are are going to gouge you royally (courtesy of the Queen of England (bankrupt) and the Club of Rome (bankrupt)).

  91. All you folks claiming the wave is coming from the wrong side clearly don’t understand the magnitude of the warming being claimed. They’re depicting a wave that started in the Pacific, so it is coming from the correct side…

  92. H.R,
    I haven’t found where to turn off autocorrect yet, but admittedly, I haven’t searched very hard for the off switch ’cause I can’t find anything in Windoze 8. Will some kind soul plant a clue for me where to find it? Thanks.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Do NOT shut this off!
    If you do, they add you to the list of people who are trying to think for themselves.

  93. I am not going to leave any more comment any longer ,(OK I’ll follow) it is useless you guys are always right and this article absolutely takes the cake, the picture left me on the floor, not laughing but in disbelieve.

  94. Oh really…

    I find it interesting that The fastest winds in our solar system are on Neptune, which clock in at 2,160KM/hr (Mach 2.03) with Neptune’s temperatures at a balmy -250C…..

    I hate Warmageddon Climate Models… I really do….

  95. hey, I’m slow ZootCadillac, but I got there. I had to get to a computer where I could do a google image search. The movie lead was close, but a red herring.

  96. So here we have a 20 meter wave that has cross the expanse of the Atlantic ocean, split the divide between the upper and lower New York Bays and still had enough fetch to overtop the SOL.

    One doesn’t have to go far to find the source of the “wave” that was photoshopped embracing the SOL. This is the wave of all purposes and shows up here and there in other photoshopped images. The image is an obvious fake, but that is common and isn’t the story behind the image. The story itself is adequately flawed that the Photo Shop Fake is of no consequence.

    BTW, because the EXIF data shows Photo Shop was involved does not mean the photo is faked (in this case it certainly is). Every time I stuff a memory card from my Canon DSLR into my computer Photo Shop opens and sucks it in and licks the doorknob. But I don’t fake my images. However – it is clear from imperfections in the image this is a fake and Photo Shop is the likely tool to have assembled it because it is an excellent tool. It would be a shame to make a verb of the name – they don’t deserve it. Others have provided other links to the unencumbered by statue wave. Like the recyclable multipurpose iceberg with alternately a polar bear or penguin (geographically poles apart for likelihood), it is a complete fiction.

  97. Jep, the Danes seem to be stepping out of the mesmerizing shadow of Svensmark’s clouds and cosmic rays, so be very suspicious of what comes from that quarter. For example this:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611001866

    Let’s do more to rehabilitate for our onetime champion Sir Henrik of DTU from the oscurity and disgrace he has been condemned to by the alarmistas propaganda machine Now is the time to act. The cooling of the planet in the last 20 years is a vindication that he was ahead of his time.

    How about some posts by him here on the church noticeboard?

  98. Of course it’s “faked”. Did anyone seriously imagine it was anything other than an overly dramatic illustration or that the creators thought that anyone would not recognise it as such?

  99. Ever notice how soon after the “narrative focus talking points” change a slew of papers come out on those talking points and the prior ‘narrative focus” fades away?

    So now we’ve got all this ‘studies’ of “extreme events”. What ever happened to obsessing about the Tropical Hot Spot or Antarctic Heating and Ice Melt (now that Antarctic ice is growing…)

    It takes time to do a paper. Somebody has to be coordinating the talking points and the Story Du Jour. Wonder what if feels like to be all ready to roll on last years Panic Points only to be told you have been replaced by “Extreme Weather” and need to go retool…

  100. H.R. asks how to turn off autocorrect in Windows 8:
    Bring up the “charms bar” by putting your mouse in the right corner of your monitor then select “Settings”. At the bottom, select “Change PC Settings”, then “General”, and you will find the spelling etc. that you can shut off.

  101. Paul B says:
    March 18, 2013 at 6:10 pm

    “The biggest problem with the picture is that storm surge is not a breaking wave. Not even close. So using this picture, photo shop or not, shows abysmal ignorance of the real world.

    B.T.W. Katrina surge was something like 28 feet and it was a gulf coast record.

    http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
    ===============================================================
    I did not know that.
    My personal point of reference is Hurricane Carla (1961). My grandparents lived in Lolita, TX eleven+ miles or so in from the gulf and the storm surge went a mile or two past their town. Their house was damaged by the surge. I visited in 1962 and was disappointed that there were no rattlesnakes around for a little guy to mess with. Most low-slung critters were killed by the surge.

  102. After emailing the Niel Bohrs Institutet (see my earlier post) I got this reply from ‘Aslak Grinsted':

    “I am currently taking steps to try to have corrections on news items that picked up this art work (which I acknowledge was a mistake). We will ofcourse also correct in onur own webpages.

    Best wishes,
    Aslak”

  103. The photoshopped image isn’t meant to fool people into thinking it’s real; it is emotional manipulation of the rankest sort, which is so typical of the Alarmists.
    It is interesting that Aslak now ackowledges it was a “mistake” (thanks to Snotrocket) to use the image. This is reminiscent of a tactic that lawyers sometimes use, in asking a rhetorical “question” and then immediately withdrawing it. The damage is done. Mission accomplished.

  104. Philip Shehan says:
    March 19, 2013 at 1:39 am

    Of course it’s “faked”. Did anyone seriously imagine it was anything other than an overly dramatic illustration or that the creators thought that anyone would not recognise it as such?
    —————
    Yes. I don’t just seriously imagine … the creators thought that anyone would not recognize it as fake, I’m sure they knew perfectly well that a number of people would accept it as a real. Not sure if you’ve heard of the normal distribution Philip, but to give you a heads up, IQ’s are distributed in a bell curve. There are a lot of fairly dumb people out there.
    Nice try though.

  105. Totally fake. I know because I shopped it. The wave photo is of “Wiamea shorebreak” I removed a person from the picture and shopped in the statue of liberty from another random photo.

  106. Hmmm … as of 8:12 CDT (local central saving time zone) this image (the main image at the top of this thread, the head post):

    . . . . . . http://media.eurekalert.org/multimedia_prod/pub/web/53975_web.jpg

    is now coming back “404 not found”:

    Not Found

    The requested URL /multimedia_prod/pub/web/53975_web.jpg was not found on this server.

    Apache/2.0.55 (Unix) DAV/2 PHP/5.0.5 Server at media.eurekalert.org Port 80

    Gordon Tarpley, do you know about this?

    .

  107. As a follow-up, here’s a link to a blog containing Jacob Cockle’s prize-winning picture for the Guardian:

    http://wodumedia.com/been-there-travel-photographer-of-the-year-2012/jacob-cockle-overall-winner-and-march-winner-adventure-a-supertanker-had-been-washed-on-to-the-reef-off-sumatra-indonesia-we-noticed-a-backwash-being-created-by-waves-rebounding-as-they/

    At least Jacob was acknowledged here through a prize….pity Mr. Tarpley could not do the same.

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