From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
According to the Environment Agency, 8 million homes in England will be at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea or surface water by mid-century, due to climate change.
The claim was made in their recent “National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024” – see here.
They expect us to believe that 1-in-4 properties, 46% of the road network and 54% of the rail network will be affected by floods.
The claims are based on the Met Office’s UKCP18 climate projections, now known to be worthless junk, as they are based on the “implausible” emission scenario, RCP8.5.
But even ignoring RCP8.5, the EA’s claims still have zero credibility. They assume, for instance, that sea levels will rise by more than 1 meter before the end of the century, and maybe as much as 2 meters. Based on historical tide gauge data, the figure is unlikely to exceed 100mm.
The EA’s own annual flood reports give the lie to their absurd claims. In the year to March 2026, for example, only 540 properties were reported as flooded in England:
This is a particularly low number, but most years see fewer than 10,000 properties flooded. Even in 2007, when the summer floods were classed as a national disaster, the Environment Agency estimated that 55,000 properties had been flooded.
The actual flood records don’t support the crazy projections being made by the EA. Not least because relatively few properties are built on flood plains.
The EA has been working this con for years now. Dream up an impossibly big number, then double it. Feed it out to a gullible media and then use it as a basis to forecast ever bigger numbers.
The media gets its scary headlines, insurance sharks put their premiums up and the government gets cover for its ruinous Net Zero agenda.
The whole system is corrupt.
The Insurance Industry, for instance, recycles the scare stories in an attempt to hike premiums. Last year Aviva made hay:
Yet the Environment Agency’s latest National Assessment states that the total economic damages for all floods between January 2016 and November 2019 in England and Wales were estimated to be between £504 million and £924 million – £708 million at 2024 prices.
That’s less than £200 million a year – a drop in the ocean where insurance markets are concerned.
Naturally the EA say that we must cut emissions to “keep pace with a changing climate”. Apparently, they think driving our petrol cars makes rainfall heavier!
Junk Computer Models
The EA website offers the opportunity to check the flood risk at individual locations.
I live at about 500ft above sea level and about 100ft above the valley bottom. Their tool informs me I have a very low risk of flooding, <0.1%. Other than rain coming in through a leaky window seal or broken roof tile, there is pretty much zero chance of my home flooding or anybody else’s on our estate. Nevertheless, we are all included in the EA’s “8 million at risk”.
Their tool informs me:
We use computer models to estimate flood risk, based on the best data we have available.
Climate change is increasing the chances of flooding.
Climate models project we will see warmer and wetter winters, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
In short, garbage in, garbage out!
Coastal Erosion
One last thing to comment on.
We routinely read stories about the threat of coastal erosion. The EA report notes that only 1900 homes will be at risk of coastal erosion by 2055, and 6400 by 2105.
Not very good news for those affected but a tiny number in national terms. Many of the houses in these areas are already several decades old and will probably not even be standing by the end of the century.
A British Geological Society study a few years ago found that the affected coasts, mostly Norfolk, Suffolk and East Yorkshire, have been eroding at a similar rate to now for thousands of years.
Giant chunks of cliffs have been gobbled up by the sea for centuries. It has nothing to do with “climate change”.
