“Connect the Dots” for this one. Mother Nature has just proven how idiotic some one the arguments trying to link global warming and severe weather are: in this case, the “global warming makes more tornadoes” argument has just gone down in flames.
Given how hot July was in the USA, setting a new record high temperature for the continental United States, and given that the U.S. is the world’s tornado capital, and given the wailing of paid political shills like Joe Romm, Brad Johnson (who tried to get traction for a Twitter meme of #poisonedweather going) and weepy Bill McKibben, that tornadoes are exacerbated by global warming, you’d think Nature would have come through for them in July. By their twisted “logic”, with record heat, it would naturally come to pass that July had a record number of tornadoes, right? As John Belushi would say: “But nooooooo….”
It’s another CLIMATE FAIL, bring out Roger Pielke Jr.’s handy BS button, because Nature has just blown these idiots a raspberry. The only “poison” is their message. – Anthony
Guest post by Paul Homewood from Not a Lot of People Know That
NOAA has now released preliminary numbers for US tornadoes in July, showing that the remarkably quiet season seen up to June has continued. As the graph above indicates, April through July are by far the busiest months, so it is unlikely that the rest of the year will make any significant difference to the overall trend.
As at 6th August, preliminary tornado reports total 905, lower than any year since 2005. ( NOAA’s Storm Prediction Centre take about three months to finally confirm actual tornado numbers and classification ). Figure 2 attempts to compare trends since 1954, with “inflation adjusting” to compensate for changes in methods of detection over the years. Again, the number of tornadoes is very low by historical standards. (For more discussion on these topics, see here.)
Figure 1
Figure 2
July Report
Figure 3
According to data from the SPC, during July, there were only 24 preliminary tornado reports. This is the least number of tornadoes reported during the month since 23 tornadoes occurred in July 1950 and July 1951. It is possible the number will be revised lower once storm surveys are completed. On average, the U.S. experiences 134 tornadoes during July. This also marks the least active tornado month since January 2011, when 16 tornadoes were confirmed.
On July 28th, a tornado touched down along the northeastern slope of Mount Evans in Colorado at an elevation of approximately 11,900 feet above sea level. The location was remote and no structural damage or injuries were reported. The tornado was uncommon due to the high elevation of its occurrence, marking the second highest elevation at which a tornado has been observed in the nation. Mountainous terrain and high elevations typically create unfavorable conditions for tornadoes, making these events rare, but not impossible. The highest elevation of an observed tornado in the country occurred in July 2004 at 12,000 feet above sea level in California’s Sequoia National Park.
Confirmed numbers for March.
The SPC have confirmed the actual numbers for March, with a total of 82 tornadoes of EF-1 classification or greater. As in February, this was unusually high, comparing with the 1970-2011 March average of 42. Since 1950, the March total ranks 4th highest, behind 1976, 1961 and 1991. The total for 1976 of 147 was a good deal higher though.
Figure 4
Confirmed numbers for April
There were 81 confirmed tornadoes in April, close to the 1970-2011 average of 85.
Figure 5
Last year, of course, April was the worst on record, so what has changed. NOAA themselves admit that nobody really understands how tornadoes are formed, but do give some clues.
How do tornadoes form? The classic answer–”warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies”–is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favourable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in an SPC “High Risk” outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don’t fully understand.
Now take a look at the next two temperature maps from GISS for April, first last year and then this year.
There has been little change in the Gulf, where it has remained warm, but the cold air towards the North West that was so prevalent last year has simply disappeared this year. It seems that a warm Spring can have its advantages.
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Where was it hottest just the USA because in Scotland we have had practically No Summer at all.
This is the thing about so called climate change nobody gives accurate info about what is going on World Wide. Some Nations are getting colder weather is this just ignored
Except the ‘poisoned weather’ meme…was focussed on heatwaves, drought, and flooding.
REPLY: Are you capable of reading what is in front of you before bloviating? Read the headline on the Thinkprogress article front and center:
Poisoned Weather: Global Warming Helped Fuel Killer Tornadoes
Sheesh. – Anthony
As far as political idiocy goes, I expect that kind of thing from anything that is funded by George Soros because all he wants to do is fund individuals that push his progressive beliefs no matter how wrong they may be.
On another note, I couldn’t help but notice the drastic difference in the south pole region between this year and last year in the two temperature maps from GISS. Looks to have been drastically cooler this year over last year.
Is that what’s called a bait and switch? Pick an article about tornadoes that was written in early March and pretend it contradicts a July headline about the record heat in the USA?
That seems as silly as someone saying global warming couldn’t lead to both worse drought and heavier rainfall.
Since tornado count should be a relative sure thing to go up on the average going forward, then this will serve as a nice point to start plotting trends from in future alarmist stories.
If you chaps were really worried about tornados you’d drop your insistence on driving on the right, whereby cars passing in opposite directions promote tornado-friendly air rotation: in the Northern Hemisphere it’s bettter to drive on the left, as the sage peoples of Britain and Japan do.
Mark says:
August 13, 2012 at 7:07 am
Except the ‘poisoned weather’ meme…was focussed on heatwaves, drought, and flooding.
REPLY: Are you capable of reading ………..
==================================================
Indeed. But, if Mark want’s to talk about droughts and flooding, there’s not significant upward trend in U.S. droughts and no significant trend in global flooding either.
The facts are the none of the weather memes have materialized.
From the Climate Progress article:
“Because of that variability and imperfect historical records, scientists have not found a measurable trend in tornado intensity and number.”
“Scientists are only beginning to have a formal understanding of how our disruption of the global climate is influencing extreme weather such as tornado-bearing thunderstorms.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/08/439053/poisoned-weather-global-warming-helped-fuel-killer-tornadoes/
So yes, they add their spin, but the article is not blatantly dishonest.
On a related topic, how many consecutive hurricane season days has it been since the last major hurricane strike on the mainland US? Aren’t we in record territory for number of days since the last strike?
[Posted this in Tips and Notes, but maybe it’s apropos here. If not, delete.]
More ‘extreme weather’ hype from the Washington Post on Saturday:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/summers-record-heat-drought-point-to-longer-term-climate-issues/2012/08/11/e1e6c68c-e313-11e1-a25e-15067bb31849_story.html
Lots of comments. I posted this:
To which one ‘afilv’ responded:
I answered,
It appears, however, that the entire exchange has been deleted from their Comments thread. Leastwise, I can’t find it.
These articles in the MSM are coming fast and furious (to coin a phrase). Maybe it’s time to issue a challenge: “Here are ten simple reasons why none of the ‘extreme’ weather events we’ve seen this year have anything to do with hypothetical man-made ‘global warming’. We dare you to print them, and see if any of the climate alarmists can refute them.” Then send it to every media outlet you can find.
/Mr Lynn
Why is it that every time someone wants to show how the global temperature has gone up over the decades they use the cold period40-70’s as part or most of the bench mark to compare to. Try this trick with the 30’s and presto GLOBAL COOLING is happening. Those of us who lived through those cold times remember and can not be fooled by this trick.
I had the privilege to live in Thurso for 3 years and got used to the idea that I’d get 2 or 3 weeks of spectacularly beautiful weather around the end of August into early September. The rest of the year was horizontal rain. I remember going down to Knockhill in July to race. Froze my butt off. Nothing like racing a motorcycle on a curvy, bumpy track in a cold, driving rain.
CAGW poisons tornadoes, dontchaknow?. Hurricanes too.
Looks like the South Pole stole our winter!
Honestly, we’re looking at temps right at or slightly below 60 tonight in KCMO. We may have had the so-called hottest July, but it seems to be cooling off quickly enough. Now if we could only get some rain …
Harry Reid has no credability whatsoever. I used to live in Nevada; he used to be my “senator”. He was an abject failure on all issues except highly questionable land deals that made him rich and representation of unions that are bilking taxpayers through excessive compensation.
In a big way, Harry Reid is a legal criminal–and he’s clueless that he is. Such a sad, sad little man.
Minor re-write needed here Anth?
“Mother Nature has just proven how idiotic some one the arguments trying to link global warming and severe weather are: ”
Maybe “some of” ?
.
Oh dear! My twisted brain initially read that ThinkProgress headline as “Poisoned Weather: Global Warming Helped Fuel Killer Tomatoes”.
James Scott says:
August 13, 2012 at 6:59 am
Where was it hottest just the USA because in Scotland we have had practically No Summer at all.
This is the thing about so called climate change nobody gives accurate info about what is going on World Wide. Some Nations are getting colder weather is this just ignored.
That’s is correct. The NW US is cool all summer with remaining snows in the mountains, Alaska Bering sea area has been cold. If there is a blocking high pressure it will be associated with a persistent low pressure where the temperature will be cooler.
The jokers in the article do not know their weather. The tornado is associated with intense thunderstorm development. That requires very unstable air that is rising due to the hot surface air moving quickly upward into cold air aloft…thus accelerates as the differential increases… that is NOT found in descending air associated with of high pressure areas…
Our schools are so inept in educating people on their favorite TV program…the weather forecast. As a consequence, our Attorney/Politicians/Media elevate themselves as intellectuals; however, they are seen by the rest of us as being liars, devious, arrogant and ignorant.
The last statement in the article is at the root – the money: “In the face of this warning, we must ask if our current path of increased pollution and decreased investment in public safety is the wisest course.”
I don’t want to be a bloviator either, but I couldn’t help but notice that this sentence seems incongruent, “Given how hot July was in the USA, setting a new record high temperature for the continental United States,” becasue it linked to http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/08/an-incovenient-result-july-2012-not-a-record-breaker-according-to-the-new-noaancdc-national-climate-reference-network/
And that link clearly shows that July did not break any records–which is what I have been telling my “on-the-fense-alarmist” freinds. Am I missing something? Maybe this is not as clear as I read it?
Using the old network, NOAA says the USA Average Temperature for July 2012 is: 77.6°F
Using the NOAA USCRN data, the USA Average Temperature for July 2012 is: 75.5°F
The difference between the old problematic network and new USCRN is 2.1°F cooler.
This puts July 2012, according to the best official climate monitoring network in the USA at 1.9°F below the 77.4°F July 1936 USA average temperature in the NOAA press release today, not a record by any measure. Dr. Roy Spencer suggested earlier today that he didn’t think so either…
Good post, Anthony. I was once taken in by these climate scoundrels, and while I still believe it is warming and that human activity is a significant cause of the observed warming, these alarmists are just getting ridiculous. I realized how ridiculous when I was discussing global warming with some of others… none of us could come up with any reason that wasn’t highly speculative and unlikely as to why global warming would be a bad thing. In fact, there is NO evidence to suggest that global warming would be anything but beneficial for large portions of the world! But these clowns are now getting so desperate as to say we must spray ocean water into the clouds and deploy sulfur particles in the upper atmosphere… WTF? Who gets to decide what is the best climate for earth? I don’t see how a 2-3C warming in the northern US, Canada, or Russia would be a bad thing? Can somebody explain how this could possibly be a bad thing? It seems like it would open up much more arable land and even improve crop yields in the future. If aliens could visit our planet, they would probably assume we were deliberately moderating the climate to make the planet more inhabitable. I realize some of the high projections for future climate change (i.e. 5 or 6C would probably be bad), but those are based on impossibly high CO2 of 800-1000+ ppm. Currently, we’re at 394 ppm and increasing at about 2 ppm per year. Even if that growth rate continued, we only wind up about 550 ppm or so by 2100.
Heat is just one component needed for tornado formation. If the other requirements are not present then there will be no tornadoes. Unless someone prominent has prominently made the claim that increasing temperature alone will spawn tornadoes this lack of observed tornadoes seems to be hyperbole.
A better question to ask is has the July 2012 heat done something to prevent tornado formation. So off we go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html and we see that this July is not particularly remarkable in recent history.
Playing got your nose (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_got_your_nose) with weather variability is probably not good science.
Facts matter not…you say something again and again, no matter the facts/observations and the scientifically inept general public accepts it….as do the absolute filth that makes up the dem party by and large.
I, too, was puzzled by that juxtaposition. Perhaps the sentence should read, “Given how hot July was in the USA, getting close to a new record high temperature. . .”
/Mr Lynn
REPLY: Note the press release from NOAA “State of the Climate” in it making the claim – Anthony
Absolute heat does not create tornados. A difference between temperature zones and the resulting convection is what creates right conditions to spawn tornadoes. You are not going to get any under a high pressure system, that’s for sure.
The key factor connecting lack of tornadoes, heat and drought is high pressure
High pressure suppresses storms, increases sunshine, brings a southerly airflow to the East half of the US (when in the position it has been), and in summer increases temperatures.
It is often mistakenly said that heat creates drought. In reality they share the cause.