From NCDC’s spring report here
More record warmth as scientists warn of global tipping point – CNN.com
— It’s hot out there. But this time, it’s more than idle watercooler talk, according to weather scientists.
At the same time the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center has released a report noting that this spring in the United States has been the warmest since record-keeping began in 1895, a group of scientists has published a paper in the journal Nature warning that the planet is approaching a critical tipping point because of climate and other factors.
Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.
In its report issued Thursday, the climate data center said the average U.S. temperature between March and May was 57.1 degrees, 5.2 degrees above the long-term average from 1901 to 2000.
While May was only the second-warmest on record, it was still in the top third for monthly average temperatures, marking 12 consecutive months with temperatures in that range, said Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.
“For that to happen 12 times in a row in a random circumstance is one in 540,000,” he said.
Globally, NOAA reported in May that the average temperature in April was 1.17 degrees warmer than the average from the past century, making it the fifth-warmest April since at least 1880.
It was the 326th consecutive month that global temperatures exceeded the 20th-century average, NOAA said.
The warm spring weather in the United States was partially the result of the waning La Niña, a pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific that tends to help direct the high-level jet stream and influence weather patterns nationwide.
But it was also partially the result of long-term climate change, Crouch said.
“The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” he said.
…
A shift in the biosphere is possible by 2100 if nothing is done to better predict changes and act upon them, said Anthony D. Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley and lead author on the Nature article.
“If we do nothing, I personally think we hit this tipping point,” Barnosky said Friday. “It means the world will be very different, losing biodiversity and (affecting where) species live in particular places.”
Full story here
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It is also interesting and a bit humorous to note this table at NCDC, where the word “coolest” is verboten.
For example:
| Nome, AK | 9.3 °F | 16.1 °F | -6.8 °F | -1.5σ | 99th warmest of 104 yrs |
5th coolest would be the way I would describe that.
Yes it was a warm spring. But not warm everywhere. But was it really driven by AGW, and was it “The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” ?
This is the same sort of logic that is employed as we saw during the Russian Heat Wave of 2010.
One spot on the globe becomes the focal point and “proof” that AGW is happening. This gets touted in the media. Then later, a study comes out saying AGW wasn’t the main driver.
NOAA on the Russian heat wave: blocking high, not global warming
But that doesn’t get much attention because it doesn’t have a gloom and doom quality for MSM News.
But this was found to be based on a synoptic pattern, basically weather noise. This spring in the USA is no different. Even the father of global warming, Jim Hansen says the same thing: (hat tip to Chris Horner and the CEI FOIA efforts for us being able to see this email)
And here in the article excepted above, Jake Crouch, CNN, and other MSM outlets aren’t even talking about a full year, just three months.
“If it bleeds it leads”, was never more true.
Some graphs: (thanks to Joe D’Aleo, all data NCDC data)
The state monthly records through the end of the 2009.. This depicts the 12 monthly records for the 50 states (600 data points). There were likely March heat records set in some states and perhaps some other months so the 2010s will show and take away from some prior years.
The 1930s stands out as the hottest decade, the 1910s and 1950s were second, 1990s third and 1980s fourth. This decade doesn’t rank although it is early.
All time cold records look like this.
It seems the climate was much more variable, with more extremes in the 1930’s.
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Why doesn’t the meme, “We are doomed, doomed I say. So give me more money and control over your life” seem convincing?
1895…. we were just coming out of the Little Ice Age. Today’s temperatures are higher than that. *shock* *surprise* [/snark]
In point of fact we are merely approaching the Middle Ages Warm Period temperatures. That was a time period which was absolutely great for humans and other creatures, yet we’re supposed to be horrified. What a crock of BS.
Had the wood burner on yesterday. 8th June, central England. Maybe this is weather.
Many “records” are taken from stations that have only been operating since the 1990’s. Yawn. What is impressive is when a “cold low” record from the 1800’s is broken by this Spring’s temperatures. You would think that with all that CO2 in the air being evenly mixed, we would be able to retain that heat and not have any such cold low records being made. Be it one year or over several years. We should, according to CO2 theory, at least be average if not warmer in Burns, Meacham, Baker City, Eugene, and Spokan, just to name a few.
Geologic reconstructions indicate that millions of years ago, the Earth’s temperature has been 5-7C warmer than today while CO2 concentrations fluctuated as high as 7,000 ppm. Earth did not experience a tripping point during these geologic periods. Only an idiot or a “believer” would propose that today’s temperatures and CO2 concentrations could produce a “tipping point”! Don’t these idiots look at data from the past billion years. Or are they so blinded by their religion that they ignore obvious contrarian data. Shame on them!
Bill
Interesting that, even in 2007, Hansen still had 1934 as the warmest year. His recent graphs don’t have it anywhere near there (see Steven Goddard’s site). And, this may be the all time best cherry picking of data – 3 months, 2% of the earth’s surface, pretty strong evidence that CO2 is bad stuff … /sarc
For those interested in the topic: An article on the economics of self-driving electric vehicles I wrote for Foreign Policy:
“How the Electric, Self-Driving Miracle Car Will Change Your Life”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/08/self_driving_car?page=0,0
Hansen states, “As you can see in our 2001 paper, 1934 was the warmest in our record then, and it is now, with and without the programming flaw.”
Yes, but what about 2007? Did you forget the time back then when you had 1998 “adjusted” into the lead, before the keen eyes of McIntyre and his crew at Climate Audit led to a “readjustment of the adjustment.”
August 8, 2007: http://climateaudit.org/2007/08/08/a-new-leaderboard-at-the-us-open/
Then, if you look down the comments on that post, you’ll note Hansen later “readjusted the adjusted adjustment.”
Poor Hansen. He might wish this stuff could be “disappeared,” but the internet elephant never forgets.
Early record levels may be easy to beat, progressively becoming harder and harder to surpass. I would think the real question would be whether record temps are broken over a broad area by large margin repeatedly over a long period of time, and seems to have happened in the 30s. Another long heat wave might not always beat those records, so would not seem as severe if the measure is breaking record temps.
For better comparison, it may be necessary to scale the record-breaking numbers by the number of years of data in the record prior to the date reported in the graph. That might help correct the apparent significance of these data.
Pick any moment in time throughout the geological history of the Earth. Look at the climate. It will be irreversibly different from the climate 100 years earlier and 100 years later. No tipping points, just irreversibly different. These differences will have an impact on where species live. Biodiversity will generally go up (if it warms) and down (if it cools). It has always been thus!
Only now, with the advent of ‘highly educated’, underfunded, over programmed scientific types do we get the message that this ‘constancy of change’ is a crisis and must be fixed (with their invaluable guidance, of course).
Please! Can’t they find something more constructive to do with their lives? I hear there is a spill on isle two!
Surpassing old temp. records disproves AGW theory. If the new record is AGW related, how did it get so hot 30-100 or more years ago? Evidence of AGW would be breaking 1 year old records every year. Matching or exceeding old records is something the AGW crowd should try to cover up, either that or just adjust old data down…….. Oh yeah……now I get it. Climate science is the one where you adjust observational data to match predictive data.
“If we do nothing, I personally think we hit this tipping point,” Barnosky said Friday.
Nice statement about his personal belief system, The fact that he has to present it like that presumably means there is no data or real evidence of his tipping point.
“For that to happen 12 times in a row in a random circumstance is one in 540,000,” he said.[Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.]
But of course climate is not a random process so this figure is meaningless and his statement totally misleading. There’s the incredible thermal inertia in the system, so having 12 consecutive warm months during a warm year is actually rather likely and unrelated to his random events probability calculations.
These guys are supposed to be professional scientists. That they are reduced to making such senseless, scientifically stupid comments publicly just shows how little real science they have to report.
They are desperate.
I thought Hansens email was more recent. It’s from 2007. Lord knows how many readjusted adjusted adjustments have occurred since then.
Well, they are all in for a surprise coming their way soon. I suspect all their measuring temp. equipment in their satellites has not been calibrated for quite a bit of time and/or has already been measuring “global” temperature erroneously, due to wrong precision.
Global temps. are dropping at an alarming rate. For example, here in South Africa, in Kimberley (think of diamonds) average temperatures have dropped by more than 1.5 degrees C since 2000.
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
I have just read about this on a norwegian blog, and not surprisingly I find it here on WUWT too. One year or two ago I became quite surprised hearing about the Dust Bowl on History Channel. Both [scaring] and fascinating. The explanation part was about “the wind and the rain” and why. Some of this “why” you can find on this excellent website about climate; http://www.climate4you.com under the heading “ocean” and AMO.
It seems like the AMO has quite an effect on temperatures in the US. The AMO index even seem to be growing according to the graphics represented at climate4you, and according to the evolving temperatures in the US. If this should be the case, no wonder the recent temperatures are high.
Here I have pasted one graph onto another, AMO and US temperatures. They seem to follow each other both in amplitude and in the derivation of time. Maybe your’e on a peak now or quite soon?
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BzE2_VqLf31cNjRNWEZOOV9HcEk/edit
Thanks’s for a great website!
“where the word “coolest” is verboten.”
=====================================================
This reminds me of when Bush Sr. was running for reelection against Bill Clinton. Any economic news by the MSM said it “the worst since….”. It might have only been “the worst since” yesterday but they had to work that phrase or a similar one into every news report.
Now “warmest” and “extreme” are OK, “coolest” and “normal” are not.
Can anyone explain the mechanism whereby AGW creates more blocking highs? /sarc
I almost posted this on the UAH temp thread.
I finally moved my orchid plants outside two weeks ago here in the mid-atlantic. Normally I get them outside in early April. That makes it 4-6 weeks later this year. I keep a close watch on nighttime temperatures as the orchids really don’t like low temperatures. Below forty gets risky and I keep the orchids inside till there are a reliable run of nights above 40F.
I also usually expect Memorial day to be the first 90F temperatures of the year. We had one day close to 90F. There are two days this week scheduled to be just above 90F. April may have been warm, but where I live, May was downright chilly.
I don’t doubt that May was warm for some folks, makes me wonder just which stations got rolled into the May temp.
Lowest recorded daytime maximum temperature where I live (Christchurch, NZ) four days ago. With a snowstorm. Or should that be the 161st warmest of 161?
“Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.”
————————————
I always have a problem with numbers like that 43%. It sounds very different if you say that 90% of the people occupy 3% of the land. The Sahara,Gobi, Northern Canada, Russia and Mongolia are virtually empty. Antarctica, Central Australia, most mountain ranges and nearly all rainforests are sparsely populated. Interesting way of interpreting reality. Much like going from 30 years down to 3 months as a climate marker.
Perhaps we could deploy the same sort of statistical acrobatics by dividing the 5 Countries into the total number of Countries and the 22 scientists into the total number of PHDs
According to Matt Rosenberg, in this:
http:/geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/popdensity.htm
90% of the population occupies 3% of the land. Land covers 29% of the globe.
.03 x .29 = .0087 = .87% Let’s call it 1%. Therefore, if Mr. Rosenberg is
correct with his data, I believe it’s very safe to say that less than 2% of the Earth’s
surface is inhabited by humans.
“If we do nothing, I personally think we hit this tipping point,” Barnosky said.
And what does he, and his warmist compatriots, suggest we do? They want us to do what O is trying to do: cripple energy production (for no climate benefit!), and de-industrialize society.
Before this election, let the people know: What O and his band of misfits is now doing regarding energy, or plans or hopes to do, is a crime against humanity, no less. Quotes from my real science comment:
“…we came up with the idea that.. global warming..would fit the bill…….and thus the real enemy, then, is humanity itself…” -Club of Rome
“The planet is about to break out with fever.. and we [humans] are the disease. We should be at war with ourselves and our lifestyles.” -Thomas Lovejoy, The Smithsonian
“[the solution] is discipline, prohibition, oppression… [and] a centralized govt and the tireless control of citizens.” -Pentti Linkola, Finnish Ecologist
“It is a campaign not for abundance but for austerity. It is a campaign not for more freedom but for less. Strangest of all, it is a campaign not just against other people, but against ourselves.” -George Monbiot, Ecojournalist
“The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it.” -H.L. Mencken
Apples and Oranges… Hundreds of thermometers in cooler areas have been eliminated, since the 60’s… What matters is the extreme high(and low) temperature charts as displayed in this article.
As you stated in the last paragraph, what a fun pile of data to sift through.
Hay someone got to do it it might as well be you Anthony.
In 2007, 2009 and 2012 I copy/pasted the daily record temps from the NWS. Some of a particular days record highs have been changed. Here are a couple of examples. The first is from the 2012. The second is from the 2007 list. There are at least 19 more “adjustments”. There’s even one where the record high for that day was set after the period the 2007 list covers but the new record high in the 2012 list is lower than that days temperature in the 2007 list. I don’t understand how that could be. (But, then again, I’ve never played on a hockey team.)
2012 List 2007 List
9-Jan 62 1946 Jan-09 65 1946
4-Feb 61 1962 Feb-04 66 1946
While I am on the subject. “Rampant population growth” ………..?????
“The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009, the human population increased by 74.6 million, which is projected to fall steadily to about 41 million per annum in 2050, at which time the population will have increased to about 9.2 billion.[11] Each region of the globe has seen great reductions in growth rate in recent decades, though growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_growth_rate_1950%E2%80%932050.svg (That is a graph but I don’t know who to make it show up here.
From the “NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center caught cooling the past – modern processed records don’t match paper records” thread —
SiliconDoc says:
June 8, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Well JB, they may believe with every ounce of their soul the world will soon reach the man made disaster tipping point and begin to overheat exponentially.
Doc wins the “Psychic of the Week” award…