[Note: I don’t agree with everything Joe has said here 100%, but I provide his comment in full edited for punctuation and format and turning image links into images to further the discussion. – Anthony]
Guest post by Joe Bastardi
In response to the article in the Boulder Stand by Tom Yulsman:
I have responded at the newspaper with this, but I want readers here to see what I said back to them, so here is the response:
Just what is so mysterious about the Change in the Pacific ocean cycle to cold 3 years ago and this response globally:
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
So is the satellite lying?
Now let me ask you this.. If this is global warming, why is the March temp globally below normal:
http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png
The temp is above the red heat wave in the US and since the year began, why is it below normal?
http://policlimate.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_ytd_anom.png
IF YOU WERE IN ASIA, WOULD YOU BE TOUTING GLOBAL WARMING?
Okay lets look at this.. the correlation between temps and the oceanic cycles, we just[ came] out of the warm PDO and are going into the cycle we were in during the 60s and 70s
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/amopdoustemp.jpg
Now contrast that with the CO2 charts vs Temps during the leveling, and now the recent cooling:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Bastardi-10-years.gif
Where is the IPCC trapping hot spot that was supposed to lead to the feedback that was supposed to cause the explosive warming? Educate yourself, don’t be lead to the slaughter like sheep
READ THIS: http://sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf
Finally the IPCC 3 scenarios, CO2, and the actual temps… it is below their mid-point, below their bottom point and heading the other way:
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/overlayco2.png
So how the heck can you say it’s cherry picking when it fits perfectly with climate cycle theory that say the ocean cools, the air then cools above ( much like turning down a thermostat, the air in your house cools before surfaces do) THEN THE LOWEST LEVELS COOL?
This is right on target with forecasts made by Bill Gray years ago, since you are close to where Dr Gray is, why don’t you ask him, My forecast stands, made 4 years ago, that the cooling would start ( it has as you can see on the observed objective data) and by 2030 we are back to where we were in the late 1970s WHEN THE PACIFIC WAS ENDING ITS COLD CYCLE. Look for yourself at the PDO values below:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/PDO_latest.gif
We started objective measuring of temps via satellite in 1978, at the END OF THE COLD CYCLE.
Just what do you think is going to happen globally when the world’s number one source of energy, the tropical Pacific, warms? And when the Atlantic does too, it means the global temp rises as heat is a measure of energy. The continents warm and that in turn warms the arctic. However the turn to the opposite is starting now.. it is intuitive that the drop starts and it is. There is no tipping point, the IPCC panic forecast is busting and we are causing untold misery by tying up the life line of our economy over a ghost that will be proven to be a scam.
The idea that there is a well oiled machine is nonsense. I don’t ask anyone to trust me, just take an hour out of your day to read the other side of this issue and you will understand that people who are pushing this want you to believe its complex. Well it’s not. The sun, the oceans and to some extent, volcanic activity, far outstrip the ability of a “greenhouse” gas that is 400 times LESS PREVALENT than the number one greenhouse gas, water vapor, that occupies only .04% of the atmosphere, has a heavier specific gravity than air (1.5 to 1.) heats and COOLS faster than air and has different radiative properties.
Do you understand how small the odds of this having anything to do with the climate is?
And the screams of derision are coming because with the change in the ocean and even solar cycles, the major disconnect has started, showing CO2’s relationship to temperature is coincidental and all we need do, since we are nowhere near the tipping point, since RECORD COLD has been occurring in the very places the IPCC were going to be warm with the trapping hot spots, is watch the data, WITHOUT ADJUSTMENT, just the pure satellite data that I showed you above, that you can watch every day.
Going forward, the global temp will RISE back to above normal for a time over the next 3 months, but the drop will start again against the normals and when we look at this chart next year:
http://policlimate.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2011.png
It will have had a lower spike down than this year.
That is the difference between me and these folks pushing this issue. I will make a forecast that you can see, right or wrong, over a definable period of time. I will ask you to read for yourself and test the ideas I have. Not simply ask you to follow like sheep to the slaughter.
Its your life, your country. At least look at the issues from all angles.
For the record, as I send this to WUWT, here is what they have under my comment, the only ones submitted.
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I like it. What is there to disagree with?
Mixed feelings. I would really rather have a warmer world but I do not want the government told you sos in charge of my life. The fact that it is a cooling world should be recognized but the worry is that the government told you sos will regroup and begin telling us so with redoubled alarm ism. Blowing us up again with their newly begotten righteousness.
It’s funny how the warmists accuse us of cherry-picking when their “theory” falls apart in the absence of Goldilocks-picking.
All those people who froze to death in Europe over the last year may have wondered what a minor heat wave in the USA has to do with GLOBAL warming.
IF YOU WERE IN ASIA, WOULD YOU BE TOUTING GLOBAL WARMING?
===========================
At 12.7 degree celsius, Mumbai’s coldest ever March morning
Pratibha Masand, TNN Mar 11, 2012
Chicago actually covers most of the planet.
http://www.real-science.com/india-doesnt-count
It’s politics. The red area over North America covers most US voters.
Perhaps Anthony should put a disclaimer in the sidebar stating:
“Note: I don’t agree with everything guest bloggers on this site say.”
Otherwise you are implying that when you don’t write that, you DO agree with everything they say. Plus, writing your comment at the top of Joe’s article spins the reader to plan on being extra-skeptical about the article. That’s not fair to Mr. Bastardi.
Joe, everyone knows that the facts matter not a whit to the warmista’s or the media. Frustrating as hell, but that’s the way it is.
Joe Bastardi always shows his data and his methodology. He never hides anything. One can’t say that about the Climate Liars aka global warmers. Joe puts it all out there, afraid of nothing and willing to admit he’s wrong if his forecast fails. Unlike the Climate Liars Joe does real science. Keep up the great work Joe. Your many followers are proud of your integrity and honesty.
Thanks Anthony, whether we disagree or not on some things, always remember to me this is a big forecast, its about the weather, be it one day, month year or whatever. I feel the main drivers of all this are the oceans, with the sun playing a bigger role in coming years than it has because of the change in its cycles, Volcanoes are a wild card.
My belief on co2 has evolved so that while I am not one of the theologians arguing over how many angels you can stick on a head of needle, I do not believe it a factor worth the fight. The heat capacity of air next to water is very small. In addition the amount of the atmosphere with co2 is only .04% and increase of 1.5 parts per million a year, of a gas that an increasing number of learned people believe is incapable of doing what it is purported to do, especially since water vapor is 400 times more prevalent and has different physical capacities makes me believe that this is a red herring.. By attacking the source of the debate, you would simply rip the feet out from under those that will resort to anything to keep their agenda going.
But consider this. The policies being forced fed down your throat and mine, are based on a gas that increases 1.5 ppm a year, of which according to a DOE study in 2004 man contributes 5%. Of that the US contributes 10%. This of a greenhouse gas that is 1/400th the amount of water vapor, of a global energy system in which the ocean is far more important. I will use a graphic that you apparently did not disagree with , since it was from this wonderful arcticle
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/06/energy-content-the-heat-is-on-atmosphere-vs-ocean/
and now the graphic
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/atmosphere-vs-ocean-heat-capacity.jpg
Now I want you to ask yourself, given what we know about heat, as a measure of energy, do you really think that co2 can possibly have anything to do with this.. It is acting on something that is tiny compared to the whole system. The disconnect proves the point, earths temps have leveled off in response the the fact that once the amo and pdo became warm in tandem in the mid 90s, there could be no more heat added from ocean to air, since the oceans had warmed to their max Responses to the el nino and la nina in the global temps are for all intents and purposes , one to one with the air temperature ( there is a lag, but the mid levels cool first as we have seen..or warm) then the response below. I dont know how much more plain it can be. In the coming years I have my forecast out. But for this year, lets test me again. I said last May the La nina was not done, because as D Aleo has pointed out, in a cold PDO they last an average of 21 months. The el ninos 9 months, It is, as I argued with Bill Nye when he tried to pull Venus into the argument and some oil in water experiment A SIMPLE TEST OVER THE THE NEXT 20 TO 30 YEARS. A cooling planet in relation to the flip in the PDO then AMO is the forecast. I am being conservative saying we will return to the late 1970 as measured by satellite. With the solar cycles, which some believe have a greater weight, and the wild card, volcanic activity, perhaps the little ice age theories are right.
3 years ago when I introduced the triple crown of cooling ( summer 08) on OReilly the left attacked with the same vitriol they are with the fact I am saying co2 has nothing to do with this and my reasons. I will not stand by, when my forecast is right ( bad enough when they are wrong) and yield an inch to them on this matter either. This will be proven to be a hoax and a scam by people who refused to look at the other side of the matter for fear of their believe system being challenged. There is a name for this, its called the Dunning-Krueger effect
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/evolved-primate/201006/when-ignorance-begets-confidence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect I suspect the piece identifying the legs of the triple crown of cooling hit them hard, and if its understood that co2 can not cause warming, they would be cooked. Even if they did cook the books, they could not blame man
And by the way, while my Fox hits get me attacked, no one seems to have read Hasif Nahle’s defense of my assertion that this gas can not cause climate change ( or is it warming.. or disruption I cant keep up with it)
http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/Joe_Bastardi_is_Correct.pdf
As for the squabble in our ranks, in the end we will find out who is right. My take is co2 has nothing to do with climate, at least not worth arguing over and certainly not worth starving mans greatest chance for freedom, the US, to death over. So what are we going to do if it does cool argue it would have cooled more if no co2 ( which by the way is interesting since co2 heats and COOLS faster than air. This is like theologians arguing over how many angels you can stick on the head of a needle
I leave you with the words of Thoreau: The sum of all our fictions, add up to a joint reality.
I am confident that the data and truth will prove my forecast to be reality, not fiction
thanks again for giving me a forum, and even if you dont agree with me on some things, you are still one of my heroes!
I wish to hell everybody would send me what they’ve written so I could proofread it for errors in spelling, grammar, punctuation, and proper word usage – or send it to Willis Eschenbach, who seems to always be able to get things right…! I hardly ever read a post here (or anyplace else, including major publications, for that matter) that is not rife with ridiculous errors. How can anybody expect to be taken seriously if they write like a sixth-grader? (Rant over)
It’s the first winter in my ~20 years in New England that I’ve been able to ride my motorcycle just about any time I please. We had a wicked, heavy snowstorm in October 11 that took down a lot of trees and did considerable damage. Since then we’ve had maybe one or two snow events of an inch or so. Heck, I’ve put the screens in my windows and have had fresh air flowing through my house, day AND night, for a couple of weeks now–in MARCH in NEW ENGLAND. It’s WONDERFUL.
To put this in context, last winter I shoveled my driveway so many times that the berms of snow on either side got too high for me to throw more snow over–about 8′ (well over 2 meters) high. I finally went to a neighbor and told him that if he let me borrow his snowblower, which can easily throw snow much higher and farther than can I with a shovel, I would clean off both my driveway AND his, and return the machine with a full tank of gas. Deal made, and I was grateful for it.
I much prefer this more leisurely, warmer winter clime. 😉 One of these days I’ll have to take the time to compare last year’s winter heating costs to this year’s. No doubt I’ve saved a bundle.
Warm is much, much better than cold.
blogagog says:
March 25, 2012 at 1:42 pm
“Perhaps Anthony should put a disclaimer in the sidebar stating:
“Note: I don’t agree with everything guest bloggers on this site say.”
Otherwise you are implying that when you don’t write that, you DO agree with everything they say.”
I disagree. Counting on the readers intelligence does not always fail. It depends a lot on the audience, though.
If I think of temperature as analogous to voltage, I see two big capacitors (ie blocking highs) on that map. One is holding a positive charge east of the Rockies against a negative charge in Alaska. Those charges appear to be about the same size and strength. The other cap (blocking high) is holding a positive charge in the Arctic against a negative charge in Siberia. (The Arctic positive is wildly exaggerated by the Mercator map, and is probably due to one or two stations anyway.)
In a real circuit we wouldn’t say the whole circuit was positive just because one of the positive plates was more visible or more noisy than the rest of the circuit. We shouldn’t do that for temperature either just because one of the hot spots contains lots of visible and noisy people.
Anthony, as per first comment; what’s there to significantly disagree with? The data is there, it shows what it shows and is seemingly ignored; swept under the table; or massaged and merged into other forms – but it’s still there!
Sure, I don’t believe the post can cover all the issues, but I think it’s an excellent basic reference for some folk to try and grasp how to read the ‘data’ instead of reading the newspapers! I’d respectfully suggest more illustration/annotation on the graphs to aid interpretation though – such as big red arrows pointing to highlighted areas, etc (you’d be amazed how many folk don’t know where Asia is!)
The well-oiled machine is Climate Central, Inc. From http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/funding/ Since its start in 2008, the following foundations, government agencies, and institutions have provided funding for Climate Central:
Changing Horizons Fund of the Rockefeller Family Fund
Flora Family Foundation
Foundation for Environmental Research
Google.org
Island Foundation
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA Headquarters
NASA Langley
National Institutes of Health via Johns Hopkins University
National Science Foundation via Columbia University
National Science Foundation via George Mason University
NOAA CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites) via North Carolina State University
Northrup Grumman
Peter T Paul Foundation
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation via Pepperwood Preserve
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
Saul D Levy Foundation
The David & Lucille Packard Foundation
The Dixon Family Fund
The Robert & Ellen Gutenstein Foundation
The Schmidt Family Foundation
Town Creek Foundation
Turner Foundation, Inc.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
U.S. Department of Energy
University of Tennessee
The Winslow Foundation
The World Bank via The Nature Conservancy
I’ve been meaning to ask about this little gem that I found , According to NOAA , February was the ” 22nd warmest ” on record . Yet , upon reading the article , this appears to be somewhat misleading in light of the fact that they go on to state that Feb. was the coldest since 1994 . Can anyone shed some light on this ? What do you think , Joe ?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Owen says:
March 25, 2012 at 1:46 pm
+1
Cherry picking by picking a day of a current warm spell to run a story like this is still cherry picking.
I do like cherry pie though. There was that cherry tree in a church parking lot in Pittsburgh around 1970. I didn’t nibble as I picked, but when I got home I washed the cherries, my clothes, and myself. Then they tasted pretty good!
Typo dept. You missed a couple. No surprise, I’m sure.:
we just cam out of the warm PDO
we are no where near the tipping point
““In a long-term trend that has been found to be inconsistent with natural variability alone, daily record-high temperatures have recently been outpacing daily record-lows by an average of 2-to-1, and this imbalance is expected to grow as the climate continues to warm. According to a 2009 study, if the climate were not warming, this ratio would be expected to be even.”
It takes a certain amount of chutzpah to write a piece criticizing others for cherry picking and then to base your argument on an even more blatant cherry pick. The warministas have been trotting out the high-low record ratio for some time, and while it is technically correct, it disregards the fact that over the longer run the total number of both have been declining.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/16/hall-of-record-ratios/
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_b5jZxTCSlm0/Sv31ZY99ioI/AAAAAAAAD38/zHZkCLYg590/s1600-h/image017.png
This March has definitely been the warmest in my more than six decades of life here in southern Minnesota, but last year at this time I still had three feet of snow in my front yard, so I’d say it’s a little early to be declaring a trend. Personally, if this kind of Spring was to become typical, the only real downside I can see is that I’ll be stuck mowing my lawn for a couple of extra months every year. Although this warm spell is highly unusual it has produced one even more unprecedented phenomenon. In all my encounters with my fellow Minnesotans in this month of March I haven’t had a single one utter the least complaint about the weather and that is absolutely unique.
Better git with the program, folks. CAGW, Global Warming, Climate Change are so last year. ‘Sustainable Development’ is the new all encompassing paradigm. Very ‘touchy/feely’ . CO2? Fagidaboutit.
What matters is money and political influence. Yet more pathological pursuit of an impossible Utopia.
polistra says:
March 25, 2012 at 1:53 pm
That’s not a Mercator projection, it would be infinitely tall. Sorry – hot button of mine.
I forgot to add one other thing to my comment above. The notion that the ratio of high to low records should normally be equal seems to be utter nonsense based on any data that I’ve encountered.
“we just cam out of the warm PDO” – needs an “e”
It looks fair to say that Climate Central receives government money, do they receive grants (simple benevolently-given sums of money to be spent as they see fit), or do they perform work for specifically ‘let’ contracts I wonder?
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