Aussie Green Energy Plans in Chaos, as the Majority of Capacity Investment Scheme Projects Fail to Progress

Essay by Eric Worrall

Even desperate measures like Australia’s attempt to force US AI companies to pay for Aussie Net Zero have fallen flat.

Zombie projects drag on Labor clean energy goals

Ryan Cropp Energy and climate reporter
Jul 19, 2026 – 6.34pm

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last week declared that next-generation data centres would be required to add as much power to the grid as they use, and the government is hopeful that the boom will help get many struggling renewables projects over the line.

Tech companies have had discussions with some renewables developers, but have not yet been able to agree on a price high enough to make the projects viable, according to industry sources who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive commercial negotiations.

Of the 19 winners of the policy’s troubled first competitive auction, which were announced more than 18 months ago, only three have reached financial close, which is typically a key precursor to the beginning of construction.

Across the scheme’s first four auctions, only 13 of the 59 wind, solar and battery projects that won underwriting support have reached financial close, according to data compiled by Infradebt.

Unions will use Labor’s 50th national conference this week to push the government to take equity stakes of up to 100 per cent in new renewables projects, and use them to supply competitively priced power to manufacturing businesses and heavy industry.

Read more: https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/zombie-projects-drag-on-labor-clean-energy-goals-20260719-p60gjq

What’s happening is hilarious, in a tragic kind of way.

The government has borrowed such a vast amount of money, somewhere in excess of $100 billion by my estimate, to build new powerlines and other supporting infrastructure to designated renewable project precincts, that borrowing splurge has broken the Australian bond market, driving up interest rates to the point most of those projects are no longer viable even with generous government support.

The AI companies aren’t interested in dumping money into Australia’s energy policy disaster, but at least one AI company is buying big in Australia’s premier coal district, where vast quantities of cheap coal are still waiting to be mined, even though they are not allowed to use that coal under current rules. This has to be a bet that the current set of bums which run the country will shortly be tossed out of office (sorry I forgot who mentioned this in comments).

To add to this circus, unions whose members are being very well paid indeed for those projects like Snowy 2 which have gone forward, are demanding the government fling enough money at all the other proposed boondoggles which have stalled thanks to federal economic mismanagement to make them happen.

But One Nation, which stands a real chance of becoming a dominant force in Aussie politics after the 2027 Federal Election, has announced a policy of ending renewable subsidies. Other opposition parties have announced they would dump Net Zero, but it’s less clear whether they want to end renewable subsidies.

To add to the fun, the government just changed the tax system, to tax capital gains on business investment at the same rate as income tax – so going forward, any capital expenditure in Australia needs a really high rate of return to be worth doing.

It’s a real popcorn moment for Australia. Nobody knows which way the Aussie government will jump next. The only thing for sure, going by their track record, is when they come up with a “remediation” plan, it will be more incompetent than anything we can imagine.

The climate data they don't want you to find — free, to your inbox.
Join readers who get 5–8 new articles daily — no algorithms, no shadow bans.
5 18 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
31 Comments
Scissor
July 20, 2026 10:19 am

Net zero, here we come!

Harry Durham
July 20, 2026 10:46 am

Reagan, among others, once said: “If your want more of something, subsidize it, If you want less of something, tax it.” Since I know of no examples that disprove the adage, I think the Aussies are demonstrating that they want their country’s businesses to make less money (at least on tax returns), and fewer AI data centers to be built. On the other hand, this and other posts indicate that, while they DO want more “renewable” power, they don’t want to pay for it. Seems as if the best outcome they can expect is a lose-tie. No winners in this current round…

Reply to  Harry Durham
July 20, 2026 5:13 pm

The actions of Australian politicians have little to nothing to do with what Aussies actually want. They work for different masters it would seem.

Harry Durham
July 20, 2026 10:52 am

CURIOSITY QUESTION: What are the papers being used as fuel for the illustrative bonfire? My old eyes can’t decipher the details. Can’t tell if it’s a political pamphlet, Australian currency, or a flier describing the Shroud of Turin… (NOTE: Real question, not a joke, unless you’re an ageist [:-))

Harry Durham
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 20, 2026 7:25 pm

Thank you! Then I’m going with wishful thinking and interpret the image as representing all the plans for implementing unreliable & (un)renewable energy installations for which there is no funding. (I still like the old animated fairy tales, too…) Back on topic, really liked the article. As a lifelong engineer, I still appreciate things that work, and marvel at some peoples’ dedication to things that don’t.

Reply to  Harry Durham
July 20, 2026 3:00 pm

Certainly not Australian currency.. the notes of the Australian currency are polymer plastics.

July 20, 2026 11:25 am

Bad deals should never reach financial close. That 3 of 19 did does not speak well for Aussie financial acumen. ‘Fun’ from a distance to watch this ineptness unfold as it is.

Paul Seward
Reply to  Rud Istvan
July 20, 2026 11:33 am

Fun watching the inept politicians squirm, but not fun for our Aussie friends caught in the mess

Reply to  Paul Seward
July 20, 2026 1:59 pm

Problems will really hit the fan if they close another coal fired power station.

Mr.
Reply to  bnice2000
July 20, 2026 3:32 pm

That will most likely happen just before the next election when Bowen realizes his sweet parliamentary gig is done for.

That’s what Labor governments in Oz have done as their exit act since the get-go –
sabotage the nation’s finances and economy so the replacement government has to spend its first 3-year term applying austerity measures to limit tax increases and get the economy back on an even keel.

Bugger the country’s best interests – socialism must prevail!!
Comrades.

Reply to  bnice2000
July 21, 2026 5:09 am

Problems will really hit the fan if they close another coal fired power station.

After checking, they demolished the Liddell chimneys a couple of months ago, so no “backsies” on that one.

For Eraring, however, some quick searching let me to a “timeline” webpage on the NSW (state) government’s site (direct link) for their agreement with Origin, Eraring’s operator, which starts :

Eraring Power Station (Eraring) is NSW’s largest power station at 2880MW. It provides around 18 per cent of the state’s current electricity needs.

On 17 February 2022, the owner of Eraring – Origin Energy Limited (Origin) – gave notice it would close Eraring as early as August 2025. This is seven years earlier than previously expected.

In August 2023, the Australian Energy Market Operator released its annual Electricity Statement of Opportunities report, which found that a reliability gap would emerge in NSW from 2025/26 if Eraring closes in August 2025.

The latest “extension” for Eraring was reported right here at WUWT back in January, all the way to April 2029, because “it has become clear Eraring Power Station will need to run for longer to support [a] secure and stable power supply”.

.

The AEMO has been aware of the effects of closing “large” coal plants since at least 2023, with Liddell providing an empirical demonstration.

The have been in “extend (Eraring) and pretend (that ‘renewables’ are a viable alternative)” mode ever since.

Mr.
July 20, 2026 11:57 am

This fiasco is the essence of what can be inflicted on an unsuspecting nation when far-left, union-controlled numpties get elected as the country’s governments (federal and state).

Younger generations aspiring to set themselves up with the standards of living that their parents worked to enjoy will curse the day that left-wing idiocy saddled them for life with astronomical, undischarged public debt, and high personal taxes for life.

Mr.
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 20, 2026 2:34 pm

Yes, it’s fashionable among kids at school to jump on board with the peer group ‘cool kids’ constant disparagement of anyone labeled as being “conservative” or “right-wing”.

Saw this kind of inept attitude when grandkids were early teens.

But now in late teens, where gaining a foot-hold in the ranks of decently-paid and interesting work opportunities is forefront in their focus & ambitions, the attitude seems much more well – conservative.

I guess it’s just verification of that old adage –

“If you’re not a socialist when you’re 20, you haven’t got a heart.
If you’re still a socialist at 40, you haven’t got a brain.”

July 20, 2026 1:39 pm

AI centres cannot run on solar, because its only there less than half the day. They would need a dispatchable supply that was capable of operating 24/7 at 100% of their needs.

There is now so much roof-top solar that during the time solar can produce electricity, grid prices are often negative.

That means there is basically zero incentive to build new solar industrial estates anywhere in Australia..

Which is great news. 😉

oeman50
Reply to  bnice2000
July 21, 2026 4:27 am

Riddle me this: Why would an AI company try to supply their 24/7 needs with intermittent power?

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  oeman50
July 21, 2026 6:43 am

Why? Government mandates and subsidies. AI and Data Centers are designated as for profit entities If they make a profit with 12 on 12 off power, they are still profitable.

If the profit with 24/365 power is greater than the 12/12 model, the profit needs to offset the capitalization and depreciation values (and tax write offs).

July 20, 2026 3:19 pm

The lowest cost fuel in the entire world sits in the Latrobe Valley. Coal seams 80m thick below topsoil. 50bn tonnes of easily accessible coal. And presently no export market to push price up.

Remove carbon imposts and State royalties to create the most investible region for AI anywhere on the globe. It only needs a change of government. Big Tech should be backing One Nation in Australia.

Latrobe valley sold electricity for $23/MWh as recently as 2003 before “renewables” destroyed the Australian grid.

In the 1960s, Latrobe Valley spawned aluminium smelters purely due to the low cost electricity. AI data centres are even more energy intensive on a per worker basis.

Battery firmed solar is the lowest cost “renewable” source in Australia. Realistic cost when all the subsidies are removed is $600/MWh. I know because I have been producing electricity from that source for 14 years.

Who in their right mind would want to pay 25X more for their main operating cost. Buy rights to land in the Latrobe Valley; back One Nation with a truckload of money and wait till the new government takes control and brings back real power generation.

Mr.
Reply to  RickWill
July 20, 2026 3:36 pm

that’s waaaay too rational for the “planet-savers” running the left side of politics these days

Mike Larkin
Reply to  RickWill
July 21, 2026 5:58 am

It’s actually 500 billion tonnes.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  RickWill
July 21, 2026 6:45 am

Unfortunately a change in policy drives the need for a change of government.
If the government was actually of the people, by the people, and for the people, this would not be the crisis it is.

Harry Durham
Reply to  RickWill
July 21, 2026 6:53 am

You identified the problem in your last paragraph: “Who in their right mind would want to pay 25X more for their main operating cost?”

Seriously, only people in their left(ist) mind would eagerly pay – and make others pay, too – 25 times the alternatives. But a leftist mindset apparently STARTS with the ability to ignore facts. Remember Biden’s statement about Democrat policy? “…we prefer truth over facts.” It has been excused as one of his constant “gaffes” when, in fact (pun intended). he was deadly serious.

Bob
July 20, 2026 4:39 pm

I want so bad to admire Australia but its leaders really make it hard sometimes.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Bob
July 21, 2026 6:46 am

I admire Australia and its people with the noted exception of the government.

Tony Tea
July 20, 2026 4:47 pm

Since the unions want the government to take a 100% stake in new projects, the government will see that as a prompt to feed its cult-like obsession with Net Zero, commit to fully underwrite new projects, and promise curtailment payments, which will start oozing the rank stench of guaranteed returns.
Given the cost blowout of Snowy 2.0 (and Bowen’s cost-plus contract) you can see why the unions are gagging for more of that guaranteed government lolly.

Phillip Chalmers
July 20, 2026 5:29 pm

Australian Labor politics is in line with all the other Marxist and Neomarxist politics which has swept the world since the beginning of the twentieth century.
This century the party which claimed the centre has moved left, betraying the vital rural and remote populations upon which the nation relies from food, fuel and manufacturing and scoundrels claiming pragmatic neutrality actually being neomaxist subversives under the label of Teal.
While there is breath in our bodies, we must beware facing a previously unthinkable fate like Venezuela

Andrew St John
July 21, 2026 4:07 am

Thanks for the article. Can I make four comments.

  1. South Australian Wind company Zen Energy has gone broke – after a wind drought,
  2. Australia has a huge Government debt – is the Capacity Investment Scheme adding to that?
  3. We have centuries of coal available for immediate use in NSW and Victoria. The Victorian coal could be used to make diesel – the technology is known and proved.
  4. Australia has pretty much everything in terms of resources – except self-belief.
Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Andrew St John
July 21, 2026 6:47 am

Might add critical thinking by the politicians.

Sparta Nova 4
July 21, 2026 6:35 am

“it will be more incompetent than anything we can imagine”

Should we put together our combined grey matter, it is possible we could identify viable competitors.

Phillip Chalmers
July 21, 2026 4:48 pm

Consistently in Australia the Labor politicians have only one use for business, enterprise, investment and productivity – to squander the generated wealth in promoting dependency on the government by handouts to as many types of people as they can invent categories for.
The current minister for climate crisis is a total buffoon who keeps saying that the sunlight and wind is free and that the new alternate energy sources are the cheapest form available.