The Met Office Bullhockey

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We all know they are caught up in the warming meme, but the Met Office in the UK is now trying to spin the idea that they had truly forecasted a cold and snowy winter, but they just didn’t tell anyone. The rationale? We skeptics here (and elsewhere) are a bunch of meanies for making fun of the BBQ summer that never happened, so we’ll keep it to ourselves.

The spin you are about to witness is Maytag quality spin. It is shameless, stupid, and beyond anything I’ve ever seen.  Both James Delingpole and Autonomous Mind take the Met Office out for a spin cycle that ends up in a full stop. The propaganda is shameless, the smell odious, and the public relations disaster is even worse than before. They apparently just don’t know when to stop talking.

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From Autonomous Mind:

This is a potentially huge story with a nasty smell of conspiracy about it. There appears to be a concerted effort to whitewash serious failings at the Met Office, with the assistance of a senior climate change propagandist at the BBC who is fully bought in to the Met Office’s warmist agenda.

The Telegraph reports today that: ‘The Met Office knew that Britain was facing an early and exceptionally cold winter but failed to warn the public, hampering preparations for some of the coldest weather on record.’  The article goes on to say:

In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.

It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.

October? That is the same month that this temperature probability map was published – for public consumption:

There is absolutely no logical or rational basis for the Met Office publishing the probability map above, yet ‘secretly’ telling the government a completely different story. The Met Office not only published the map, it had meterologists speaking publicly about the map and setting an expectation of a very high probability of warmer than average winter, as I will explain…

The stench of deceit surrounding the Met Office, it’s disgraceful self serving effort to mislead the public and apparent attempt by a publicly funded BBC journalist to distort the facts is overpowering. There now needs to be an independent inquiry into this whole matter. A Freedom of Information request is being submitted to ask for this secret October forecast.

Read the whole post here at: Autonomous Mind

From James Delingpole at the Telegraph:

So apparently the Met Office isn’t useless after all. Just cruelly misunderstood.

It seems that the reason it didn’t provide an accurate forecast of this winter was not because it didn’t know bad weather was coming. It was because we were all so horrid last time it made a boo boo over the infamous “barbecue summer” that it decided it wouldn’t make its forecasts public any more.

Which means the real victim of this sorry story is not us (for having been misled about the extremity of cold we could expect this winter) but the poor old, much-put-upon, much-maligned, but basically splendid and well worth the £170 million it costs us every year Met Office.

Hurrah, Hurrah and Thrice Hurrah for those magnificent men (and women: let’s not forget the great Julia Slingo) at the Met Office!

Hmm. Is anyone else as unpersuaded as I am by this extravagantly implausible piece of spin? There’s a big clue in the identity of the fellow from whom it originated: Roger Harrabin. Yes, Roger Harrabin as in the BBC’s High Priest of Gaian Worship and Climate Alarmism.

Read the whole post by James Delingpole at the Telegraph.

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Surely the good people of the UK have to be sick of this by now?

If you are, here’s my advice: picket the Met Office.

Borrow the tactics shown by the greens at Ratcliffe and Kingsnorth and show the burea-weasels what it’s like to feel the brunt of public scorn. A few protestors with a banner outside the Met Office (shown below) would be all it takes to make the news.

Demand accountability, not GIGO spin.

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180 thoughts on “The Met Office Bullhockey

  1. Closethe Met down, and offer Joe Bastardi £1m p.a. to provide the UK’s seasonal forecasts..

    The British taxpayer saves £169m a year, and gets some quality long-term forecasting.

    Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

  2. Someone needs to submit a Freedom Of Information request for all communications with government entities this past fall which indicate long range forecasts covering this winter. Revealed emails and other documents must have original time stamps. This can be followed up with FOI requests of the target agencies to confirm that such communication was actually received.
    If (really big IF) other agencies were told this would likely be a frigid winter then where was there obligation to inform the public that the Met Office was perpetrating a public hoax?

  3. So the MET, which is still paid by the government to make predictions, secretly warned the government that it would be a cold winter.
    The government ignored it, and did not stock up on fuel, sand, salt, etc…

    and thousands of people died in the cold

    It’s one thing to fudge a prediction, it’s another thing for the government to know and not prepare, and cause thousands of people to die.

    (don’t they realize that their lie is even worse)

  4. You couldn’t make this stuff up and anyway there’s actually no need to as they’re so good at it. Brilliant.

    The whole AGW edifice teeters on the edge of oblivion and they’re daft enough to try to spin their way out. Bye bye career, bby bye expense account, bye bye personal credibility, it was nice while it lasted………….

  5. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

    – Joseph Goebbels

  6. Send them to Siberia. As countries become communistic, they charge people with crimes that make false forecasts.

  7. Basically, the Met Office gets paid out of the public purse whether (weather?) they get it right or not, so there’s not a lot of motivation to get it right in the first place. However, the Coalition government here in the UK is having to make all manner of financial cuts (VAT – a tax on most everything apart from essentials like food – just went up from 17 1/2 to 20% today and there’s talk of public sector workers losing their jobs by the thousands) so HOPEFULLY they might start looking at the value for money they’re getting from these people. If the Met Office had to make their money by selling their forecasts I think things would be a little different.

  8. £170 million to the Met Office to practice CYA. It sounds to me like they are admitting that they gave a secret forecast to the government and put out the opposite forecast to the public as a propaganda piece to appease Warmers. No matter what happened, they could claim they were right. I will do the same thing for just 1% of the £170 million.

    Perhaps they have already issued a secret report to the government determining that global warming is an exaggeration so they can save face down the road.

  9. I only wish that the standards required of the private sector by government regulators and bodies applied to them also. Just think of the outcry if this was done by, say a food or drug company.

    What is still so amazing and very demonstrative of AGW as religion, is that every time some news comes in that global warming is not as bad as we thought – think, UK winter – this is treated as bad rather than good news. Astonishing.

  10. I’m watching Newsnight, BBC2, a discussion about homeopathy being banned for animals but OK for humans, including malaria and other serious diseases.
    The cognitive dissonance (ignorance) displayed by these people and their unfortunate
    customers is mirrored by our illiterate or lazy friends who continue to ‘believe’ in CAGW.
    Substitute belief in ‘dilution’ to nothing with the infallibility of supercomputers programmed by parameterisations and other guesses to solve non- linear equations
    and we arrive at Met Office predictions and their attempts to justify incompetence.
    Joe B. and Piers C. for me every time.
    We live in strange times.

  11. I favour the idea the Met Office is so compartmented and incompetent that conflicting assessments were issued via different channels. But maybe there are some real professionals there who aren’t allowed to speak to the public but get to advise the military say, and via them the Cabinet Office (but not at the political level: there is some humdrum work via the Cabinet Office, “officials” committees and such, or was when I was there many years ago…)
    Still SNAFU tho’

  12. Why shouldn’t they expect to get away with this? They know good and well that the Government won’t do anything and any investigation (assuming that one was started) will just be another exercise in whitewashing.

  13. Wow…..doesn’t their mission statement say something about providing information with the intent of safegarding life and property.

    This story IS huge. UK residents…….please stand up and scream.

  14. I have watched the steady decline of what used to be a glorious scientific establishment of which the UK was rightly proud turn into a sorry excuse for a weather forecasting service with absolutely no compunction for outright self-centred propaganda if not outright political lies regarding the climate.

    For years I have been trying to warn people that completely at odds with their own fraudulent propaganda on their ability to forecast the climate the UK met office are completely useless at global temperature forecasting.

    They even had the audacity to say they were doing well, when their error was only 0.06C/year …. which just happens to be the same as the warming trend by which (almost) each and every forecast has been wrong.

    Talk about putting monkeys in a room to create Shakespeare, what we have in the Met Office is Monkeys trying to toss coins to predict whether global temperature get warmer or cooler … and they get it wrong something like 9 out of ten times.

    As one long-serving forecaster said to me: “they are run by accountants and marketers and the science/scientists have been booted out!”

  15. If they knew a cold winter was coming up, why did they go along with the spin about 2010 being the hottest year, in the run up to Cancun?

    Lies, lies and more lies.

    They want a new sooper dooper computer, but if the same brainwashed individuals provide the programming, why do they expect an improved output? Insanity!

    Iam a UK Resident

  16. Curiouser and curiouser!
    Maybe there is a transcript or a video of the meeting at which the decision to withhold was made. That would make a mighty fine exercise in deciphering mental gymnastics.
    Maybe it would even reveal who to . . . — ?. . . have Josh make a cartoon of.

  17. Sadly, no, no, try again. Tragically the UK MET Office is part of the Ministry of Defeat, err, oops, Defence.

    So no FOI requests allowed, to find the, err, Spin, oops again, Truth. In effect the c**ts can say anything they want, but I am sure there are people, with more connections than me, trying to find out which government departments/bodies the MET Office relayed this information to. I bid the searchers good luck in their quest.

  18. So what’s so wrong with the Met Office? It’s not like any part of or anything associated with the UK government is doing anything to make the UK relevant again.

    Heck, the monarchy is doing a better job of that. Look at the expected tourism for Prince William’s wedding! Even Prince Charles does his part keeping the UK in the news. Met office, the Royal Climate Change Correcting Commandos, the UK government overall… not that much.

  19. Straight from the Met Office web site describing “what we do”:

    •Warn people of extreme weather to mitigate its impacts — contributing to the protection of life, property and infrastructure.

  20. latitude said on January 4, 2011 at 2:43 pm:

    hindcasting – hindpredicting

    Go with what you’re good at……………..

    Hindcovering?
    ;-)

  21. I deduced the MetOffice had become a complete sham when I found out that CRU were closely involved with them! Enough said!

  22. If this story is true, it illustrates the lamentable state of investigitive journalism in the UK.

    Potentially, the fall out from this disclosure would be huge. To which Government department/Ministers did the Met give this forecast? What did that Department/the Ministers do with the forecast? To what extent was it passed onto the Highways agency, Local Authorities, the Airport Authorities, Rail Authorities so that they could order sufficient grit and prepare for the bad weather to keep the UK running? If it was passed onto these authoritories, what did they do to act on the forecast to keep the UK running etc?

    Given that the UK came to a halt for lengthy periods, heads somewhere should roll so there is much for a journalist to get his/her teeth into.

    I suspect that the truth of the matter is that the Met gave no such early forecast. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that it was forecasting the overwhelming probability for a milder/warmer winter. If that is the case, then there is agood story to be had as to why the Met office are now seeking to mislead.

    Either way, this is a brilliant story for an investigative journalist to cover in depth. Regretably, the MSM is so controlled this will not happen.

  23. The UK government left,right and centre is still committed to action on AGW.The raising of VAT to 20% is all wrong, I think it is time we became more involved with politics in the UK.I feel that the Met Office should be privatised they may or may not have predicted this harsh winter but we had no evidence of that.

  24. Just a minute. Just a minute. Where is this “the UK Met office didn’t tell us” coming from. According to the Daily Express October 28, the Met Office DID tell us and they said it was going to be a mild winter:

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/winter-to-be-mild-predicts-met-office/

    Now they tell us “well we knew it was going to be severe and told Parliament in October”. So they just flat out lied to the public with the mild winter forecast.

    And trying to now say “we didn’t tell the public” is another flat out lie. They did say. They said it was going to be mild.

  25. If they did warn Cabinet — as claimed — and they have now made that advise public, I would have thought they had no reason to withhold the original advice under the FOI Act.

    So a nice letter asking for the confidential advice to Cabinet in October might seem to be in order — and might prove quite illuminating.

    Margaret

  26. Maybe I did say publicly what you thought I said but I said it because because you always make fun of me for saying what I do say but in this case I said the exact opposite silently to myself and I was right that time but you still make fun of me because you didn’t hear what I said silently to myself for exactly that reason. So there. Tera flop flop flop flop…

  27. There are also one or two of us who would like to know what is going on with HadCRUT3?

    No sign of a November number yet, now 5th Jan?

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

    HadSST2, which I understand is 75% of HadCRUT3 was posted at +0.237C on 5th Dec

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadsst2gl.txt

    Cold got into the super chips? I wonder if we might see a “joint” announcement about 2010 from both side of the pond?

  28. Saturday Night Live scripts
    “Pathological Liars Anonymous —

    Tommy Flanagan…..(Jon Lovitz)
    Announcer: And now, a message from Pathological Liars Anonymous.

    Tommy Flanagan: Hello, my name is Tommy Flanagan, and I’m a member of Pathological Liars Anonymous. In fact.. I’m the president of the organization!

    I didn’t always lie. No, when I was a kid, I told the truth. But then one day, I got caught stealing money out of my mother’s purse. I lied. I told her it was homework – that my teacher told me to do it. And she got fired! Yeah, that’s what happened!

    After that, lying was easy for me. I lied about my age and joined the army. I was thirteen at the time. Yeah.. I went to Vietnam, and I was injured catching a mortar shell in my teeth. And they made me a three-star general! And then I got a job in journalism, writing for the National Enquire.. er, Geographic! Yeah.. I was making twenty thousand a ye.. month! In fact, I won the Pulitzer Prize that year! Yeah, that’s the ticket.

    And then my cousin died – Joe Louis – and I took it hard. Maybe too hard – I tried to kill myself. Yeahh.. I did kill myself! Sure! I was medically dead for a week and a half! It was a woman that brought me out of it – Indira Gandhi! Yeah, right.. And she told me about Pathological Liars Anonymous.

    Oh, you’d be surprised how many famous people belong. In fact.. at one of the meetings I met my wife – Morgan Fairchild! Yes, I’m a change man now, and all because of Pathological Liars Anonymous. Why, I – I even have my picture on the cover of Newsweek magazine. Yeah. Every day! Yeah.. that’s the ticket! Yeah, you betcha!

    [ fade ] ”

    I’ve often wondered where ‘Tommy’ ended up…

  29. “This story IS huge. UK residents…….please stand up and scream.”

    What? And miss East Enders!
    Far more important things to do!

    Jmac.

  30. richard verney says:
    January 4, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    If this story is true, it illustrates the lamentable state of investigitive journalism in the UK.

    Potentially, the fall out from this disclosure would be huge.

    Now we have a conspiracy regarding the snow, that’s means it’s got to be called:-

    SNOW – GATE!!!

    Or as Wikipedia will call it: ” Forecasting statistical aberration of MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING INDUCED detemperaturefied water”

  31. TonyK says:
    January 4, 2011 at 3:07 pm
    However, the Coalition government here in the UK is having to make all manner of financial cuts (VAT – a tax on most everything apart from essentials like food – just went up from 17 1/2 to 20% today and there’s talk of public sector workers losing their jobs by the thousands) so HOPEFULLY they might start looking at the value for money they’re getting from these people.
    ———————————————————————————–

    Unfortunately, the coalition government in the UK are big drinkers of the AGW Kool Aid, so they will let the Met Office and their media pimps at the BBC keep trucking right along with their fraudulent statements and forecasts without fear of economic consequences for their intentionally misleading the public. I prefer the UK’s tort laws to those here in the U.S., but I tell you what: if a government agency charged with protecting the public here had engaged in the fraud the Met Office perpetrated that led to the deaths of citizens, there would be a long line forming at the courthouse…

  32. However, the Coalition government here in the UK is having to make all manner of financial cuts (VAT – a tax on most everything apart from essentials like food – just went up from 17 1/2 to 20% today and there’s talk of public sector workers losing their jobs by the thousands) so HOPEFULLY they might start looking at the value for money they’re getting from these people.
    ————————————————————————————

    Unfortunately, the coalition government are all big drinkers of the AGW Kool Aid and won’t hold the Met Office–or their propagandists at the BBC–accountable for this huge abuse of the public trust. I actually prefer the tort laws in the UK to those here in the U.S., but I tell you what, if a government agency here had done what the Met Office did and as a result killed people with their neglect and deceit, a long line would be forming at the courthouse door…

  33. Maybe the Met Office can provide us with the email they sent to those dubious government officials back in October, explaining not only the “correct” forecast, but their rationale for duping the lowly peasant masses? Once they reset the time on the computers sending and receiving said email that is.

  34. With a casual glance, this episode as all the hallmarks of a bunch of 5 year olds playing some school yard game, and they have been found out. Typical of 5 year olds being caught out, they have just resorted to lies and spin and thus painted themselves into a corner. From here there is no escape, too many conflicting lies have been told, no one even knows what the truth is now, checkmate !

    My Dad told me 50 years ago, “some people grow up, the others just grow old”.

    Second, the Met Office badly needs a reality check. Maybe one of the international airlines needs to take this mob to task in the way of a damages suit. I’m dam sure that if I were an airline executive with several $100 million jets sitting on the ground unable to fly because the Met Office didn’t tell me Heathrow was going to be snowed in for 6 days, and after I was told it was going to be a mild winter, I would want their heads on a stake !

    The Met Office has to go, along with the CRU, they have caused too much damage to innocent lives all around the planet.

  35. This reminds me of the old con game. Give half of a group one prediction and the other half another. When the prediction takes place, take the correct group and repeat till you have true believers on your hand. You then offer to take their money and invest it.
    It seems the Met is not very good at implementing it.

  36. I thought that a re-read of the recently released Resilience of England’s Transport System in December 2010 report was in order in the light of this new post. I have taken relevant random quotes from the Executive Summary and Recommendations. I have added my comments after each quote.

    “On 1st December, I was asked by the Transport Secretary to carry out an urgent audit of how well the highway authorities and transport operators in England have been coping with the unexpectedly early and severe spell of winter weather, “

    Unexpectly ? really to who?

    “I can sympathise with those whose first reaction is “why does this country come to a standstill at the first signs of snow?”, as well as those who think that every other country manages these things better than we do. And inevitably the cry goes up “where are the gritters?”.

    Perhaps other countries make a point of warning the general public especially in case anticipated extreme emergencies?

    “The Met Office gave ‘early indications of the onset of a cold spell from late November’ at the end of October, but detailed forecasts of snow were not possible until a few days before the first precipitation.

    Early indication? Not to those who ultimately suffered the most.

    “The Met Office advice to our main Review earlier this year was that severe winters have only a 1 in 20 chance, that the weather in any one winter is virtually independent (statistically speaking) of weather in preceding winters, and that this incidence is slowly declining due to global warming; however, one important effect of global warming is that more snow is possible when severe weather events do occur.”

    Still making excuses, rather than finding out why other professionals can do it and do it better

    “With the same issues in mind, the Transport Secretary approached the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Sir John Beddington, who initiated a more general investigation by the Met Office into seasonal and long term forecasting capability. A report was delivered last week; Professor Beddington advises me that the Met Office will shortly be able to make seasonal forecasts (i.e. up to 3 months ahead) with more confidence, and that this will be incorporated into operational forecasting during 2011.”

    Has anyone heard of any new seasonal forecasts. Next 3 months are anticipated to be cold again ? who has been warned ? Who will get operational forecasting? Looks like the public in UK do not matter.

    “There needs to be a more widespread communication of best practice and encouragement of those authorities for whom the opportunity remains to raise their game. Meanwhile it is up to LHAs and their communities to do the best job they can, given the unpredictability and…“

    Wrong again .It was predicted and it was predicatable?

    I have nothing but extreme sympathy for the people of UK . This needs to be fixed and fixed quick?

  37. “Maytag Quality Spin “

    Beauty. We need Met Office T-shirts with an Earth in spin cycle in a Maytag dryer.

    In place of Maytag, there will be MET GAG

  38. Dodgy Geezer.
    CSIRO had the CRU team out to Australia to adjust data. They managed to exclude nearly all New South Wales among other cherry picking.
    The result was they used the same dodgy analysis as the Met Office in the UK to predict ghost towns from lack of water and severe extended droughts. Then they applied that rotten analysis to the irrigators need for water for growing crops and declared they would have to reduce water availability by a huge amount to save the environment. The irrigation towns along the Murray Darling rivers systems were burning the analysis in the streets.
    Despite their confident analysis, the Murray Darling system has been in major flood this year, Queensland is currently under flood conditions greater than France and Germany combined. Lake Eyre is going to fill for the 3rd straight year. The water has to flow through the Simpson Desert and Sturts Stony Desert to reach Lake Eyre.
    It is more than time that these people were held to account.
    New Zealand has an Emissions Trading Scheme that is causing the cost of electricity to rise faster than old people can pay. Surprise surprise, who “fixed” the data. None other than another clown from CRU. When challenged in court and caught out, they denied New Zealand even had a temperature record. So the ETS was brought in under false pretenses which will not save the people who have already died from cold.

  39. Hmm. Ya know, I’ve never quite understood a lot of British humor, but as all this sounds like a Monty Python skit I’m beginning to see why people would like this if were rewritten a bit so becomes something to laugh at instead of being caught in.

    I’m sure Jame Delingpole is thinking “Thank you, thank you, thank you” thoughts toward the Met Office.

    I’m won’t guess at what Roger Harrabin is thinking, but he’s not very good at that.

  40. Like the other comments have said, can’t let them whitewash this.this is great cannon fodder too since they’re gone into a typical reactive state of mind after being caught red handed as being swindlers and their soothsayers at the MET being wrong. Time to get the first bus back home lads, the METs going through some extended maintenance (new models in progress).

  41. I forgot to add above, while the Murray River was in high flood, they released and environmental flow on top. The same geniuses let a flow of cold water out for environmental purposes just before the flood. The locals warned them not to release it but they went ahead anyway. They killed thousands of murray cod and other fish when the cold water hit their warm water.
    Besides their greed for grants, you have to ask if these AGW people are actually sane.

  42. Dr T G Watkins says:
    January 4, 2011 at 3:21 pm

    > I’m watching Newsnight, BBC2, a discussion about homeopathy being banned for animals but OK for humans, including malaria and other serious diseases.

    More Monty Python humor!

    In the US, we do have higher standards for the nutrition content of pet food than human food, but the assumption (I assume) is that humans will combine several foods into a balanced mix.

    Seems like a good idea. :-)

    Homeopathy was a good idea back in the day when “the cure was worse than the disease.”

  43. “”A spokesman for the Met Office said: “In late October we informed the Cabinet office that there were early indications of a cold start to winter.””

    I guess so…
    ….it was -6 degrees on October 25 you numbnuts!

    What was your first clue………….

  44. from the UK Tele article anthony linked to, we have a freudian slip in Corbyn’s quote, which i don’t believe is by accident. “Met Office has got it repeatedly” when obviously Corbyn said “has got it wrong repeatedly”.

    (excerpt)Piers Corbyn, the owner of WeatherAction, an independent forecaster, said: “This is a step in the right direction. The Met Office has got it repeatedly and yet it remains the public service forecaster…

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html

    also, the Tele article is in the “Weather” section, not a Swinford specialty, and has no comment section.
    the latest Swinford piece concerns the English cricket team’s dance!

    29 Dec: UK Tele: Cricket: The Sprinkler Dance – from locker room to dance floor
    By Richard Alleyne and Steven Swinford

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8230385/The-Sprinkler-Dance-from-locker-room-to-dance-floor.html

    the Swinford Met Office article does not show concern for those who truly rely on the longer-term forecasts, such as farmers and dare i say airports, but mentions motorists and “passenger groups”. guess airlines might be included in “passenger groups”!

    btw it was Swinford who did the Tele piece about the absurdity of the UK Govt planning to fine airports for not being prepared for snow!! if the Govt privately knew from the Met Office what was to come, why didn’t it inform the airports?

    27 Dec: UK Tele: By Steven Swinford: Theresa Villiers: government knew Heathrow was not prepared for snow
    The aviation minister admitted that the government knew about Heathrow’s inadequate preparations for winter as she confirmed that airports could face fines when passengers have their travel disrupted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8225790/Theresa-Villiers-government-knew-Heathrow-was-not-prepared-for-snow.html

  45. Myt e-mail to the Met Office

    Mets,

    It has been reported by a professional journalist http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html and professional propagandistas such as Harrabin at the BBC, that the Met advised the government back in October that the winter would be cold and nasty, yet, despite removal of web pages, the Met was telling the public it would be warm and nice this winter.

    Apparently, this was a secret between the Met and the Government.

    Pray tell, why is a public body deliberately lying to its public benefactors?

    I do not believe you Met. I want to see the correspondance between you and The Government before I can believe a word you say; because, generally, whatever you say is false. It will be warm – it’s cold. It will be dry – it’s wet.

    I am prepared to launch an FOIU for these communications between the Met and HM’s government.

  46. There is one simple fix for all the Met’s woes: admit that climate is complex and that they really don’t know. Of course, such an admission would essentially be used to destroy AGW theory. And so the best fix and easiest fix is the one that cannot be used.

  47. It seems obvious to me that the forecast was withheld for political reasons. If the Met were to produce a forecast of a cold winter, it would possibly contrast with other longer term messages they are disseminating about global warming.

    But one thing doesn’t make sense. If they intentionally put out a forecast they *knew* was inaccurate because they were afraid of ridicule from previous forecasts yet *knew* this forecast would also be wrong and only increase that ridicule, then it throws that reasoning completely out the window. So they reduce criticism by publicly forecasting exactly the opposite of what they really thought would happen? That makes no sense.

    They could have toned down the forecast in magnitude but at least got the sign correct (cold rather than warm) and at least had people on the right track.

    No, they simply did not want to deal with the psychological impact of having to tell people they were in for a third consecutive colder than normal winter while at the same time trying to convince people it was actually getting warmer. This decision must have come from farther up the chain than the meteorologists. This came from a political office or someone afraid of ruffling the feathers of a political office.

    If that is not true, then the only two logical alternative is that the met office no longer believes its own forecasts. No, I think they believe their own forecasts but for political reasons, do not want people accustomed to the notion that it might not be getting warmer.

  48. I sincerely hope the Met Office continues to play the game this way. Baghdad Bob would be proud of them.

  49. The True Believer can’t be educated because he knows it all. The UK and most of Europe is slipping into the Cesspool of history because Real Men are afraid of showing some guts. Where are the Crusaders of today who will risk their lives and fortunes to defend their heritage and stand up for the truth? Belief in the GW Hoax is but one symptom of the plague that has descended upon a once great people. Is there none but Daniel Hannan who will stand and fight for what’s right?!

  50. latitude says: January 4, 2011 at 2:43 pm
    hindcasting – hindpredicting

    How about HINDCOVERING?

  51. The Met Office in the UK, is really two completely different organizations. There are the short term forecasters, and then there are those who study climate. My guess is that they hate each other. If anyone has heard the UK shipping forecast, then it is clearly produced, several times a day, by professionals who really know what they are doing. On the other hand, that part of the Met. that is associated with the CRU are simply supporters of CAGW, with no regard for the science. They toe the official line that CAGW is real, and this is the official position of the senior management at the Met.

    My guess is that the short term forecasters found that the cold weather was coming, and this disagreed with the party line of senior management. This is why it was not made public. Short-sighted, maybe, but understandable.

    So my guess is that this is a continuing disagreement between the two parts of the Met. The short term forecasters just want to be left to do what they do very well, and people like Vicky Pope and the CRU want to just spout the warmaholic religious beliefs.

  52. Being caught in one heinous lie already, possibly two, why should we believe anything they say? What possible justification can they offer to ask for any more public tax money when they betrayed the trust of the tax payers, issued false information to the public, and caused wrongful deaths? Shut them down and hire Piers Corbyn.

  53. We have to remember in this astonishing story that the head of the Met Office – one Napier – has just been awarded the CBE for services to the nation. I understand that he is an ardent AGW activist and his role in this event must have been interesting!

  54. latitude says:
    January 4, 2011 at 5:55 pm
    “”A spokesman for the Met Office said: “In late October we informed the Cabinet office that there were early indications of a cold start to winter.””

    I guess so…
    ….it was -6 degrees on October 25 you numbnuts!

    What was your first clue………….

    _____________________________________________________________

    You give them too much credit….

    The first snowfall in Scotland occurred on the 27th. September :

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315636/First-snowmen-2010-spotted-shivering-Scotland.html

  55. A Met Office that absorbs 200M quid a year to make predictions that are not to be told to anyone.
    Reminds me of the WOMs (Write Only Memory sticks) you can buy…

  56. I would think this would have broader political implications, because now the Met office is putting government politicians in the position of proving to their own constituents that they weren’t lying to the public, and that it’s not their own criminally negligent fault that the UK was unprepared for winter weather.

    What the Met office has done is lay a “Downing Street Memo” at the feet of a bunch of powerful politicians. It might be a fatal mistake, because when falsely accused of lying to the public, politicians greatly prefer to keep their own jobs and can get more than a bit vindictive.

  57. Stating the obvious,

    If the MET is allowed to claim “backsies” on any prediction,
    it stands to reason that any prediction they make is worthless.

    Instead of Global Climate Disruption,
    it’s a bit more like Global Climate Model Disruption.

    And finally, as readers of this blog all know, there’s a decent chance the globe may get pretty damn cold over the next few years, for a variety of reasons. While this cold won’t negate the Global Warming alarmists efforts all by itself, it will have a horrific effect on the global food supply. Should this cold spell come to pass, will the MET and NASA claim they knew the growing areas will suffer significant decreased yields due to lower temperatures and shortened growing seasons? (“Remember that one guy that said we might have a short cold spell before temperatures went through the roof? Yeah, our models predicted that cold. What, you weren’t listening? Wasn’t it obvious that you were going to have to deal with global food shortages?”)

  58. Similar drivel appeared over at the Daily Mail yesterday but upper links disappeared rather too quickly when commentators were obviously having none of it.

  59. It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.

    Oh? The only thing that comes to mind is double-secret probation as used by the Dean in Animal House:

    .

  60. Palin Smith says:
    January 4, 2011 at 6:15 pm

    “Is there none but Daniel Hannan who will stand and fight for what’s right?!”

    =======================

    Thank you for embedding that damn inspiring video. I just watched it three times and emailed it my family and friends.

    I see the fire in his eyes and I know there are many on here who share the same fire (but not necessarily the eloquence).

    Truly, the world needs more actual REAL leaders…. like this guy.

    It is time for all of us who are sick of the governmental “monstocracy” strangling the free world to stand up and be counted.

    Time to light the torches.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  61. … but they still raise VAT to 20% to pay for this sh!t.

    As they say in England “mustn’t grumble”.

    Unfortunately, the stupid lemming sheeple with one vote (if they can be bothered), are not reading this ….

  62. Correction: Upon re-reading….I did not mean to imply in my post that there was lack of eloquence on here. There is plenty of it. I was just remarking on Mr. Hannan’s Churchillian delivery…

  63. Ric Werme says: “Homeopathy was a good idea back in the day when ‘the cure was worse than the disease’.”

    Probably so. It should be noted, however, that despite its total lack of established scientific underpinning, homeopathy gave many people relief from a wide variety of conditions. During the cholera outbreak of 1854, the London Homœopathic Hospital treated 61 cases of cholera. Of those, 10 died, a percentage of 16.4; The neighbouring (allopathic) Middlesex Hospital received 231 cases of cholera, of whom 123 died, a fatality rate of 53.2 per cent. Homeopathy has fallen on hard times recently. For an excellent history of London Homeopathic Hospital*, see:

    http://homeoint.org/morrell/londonhh/index.htm

    * lately renamed “the Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine”

  64. A hedged forecast perhaps?

    From October 1, 2010…“The Met Office don’t issue their seasonal forecast to the general public anymore, using them for internal research purposes only, but as I understand it, their forecast also suggests that the probability of a cold winter is higher than normal.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/10/

  65. Whoever is doing this spinning in the MO is just terrible at it – they have now in effect told everyone that they knew yet didn’t share. This is good legal grounds to sue for compensation on a bias of a failure of inform. It’s one thing to get it wrong and say so, it’s another to say we said we got it wrong but really we didn’t.. This opens the doors it in effect a class action from any loss that could have been reasonably prevented if this information had been shared.

    The great thing about this is that they cannot hide behind the normal ‘its nature doing it’s thing’ disclaimer – they have stated that they knew..

    Maybe that picture of the MO needs a ‘For Sale’ sign putting in front of it to fund all the claims?

  66. Is the met office getting a little touchy about this. I got this replahyjust an hour or so after ;osting my Q. Perhaps they have an excellent e-mail answering service. This e-mail was sent by them at 2.20 in the morning. Perhaps a follow up[ telephone call will help :-)

    Dear Robert,

    Thank you for your enquiry.

    We have forwarded this on to our Customer Feedback manager and she will get back to you as soon as possible.

    If you have any further questions or need additional information please contact the Weather Desk on 0870 9000 100 where one of our advisors will be happy to help you. The number is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

    Kind regards
    James

    Weather Desk Advisor
    Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.
    Tel: 0870 900 0100 or +44 (0)1392 88 5680 Fax: 0870 900 5050
    Email: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
    Your personal details will be stored in our database. The information will not be passed to any third parties. Please advise us if you do not wish your details to be stored. The Met Office is an Executive Agency of the UK Ministry of Defence and is registered under the Data Protection Act 1998.

  67. “No! It was *their* fault! We told them this would happen!” – AKA, protecting our funding (and we’d like one of those sexy new computers, thank you).

    H.M. Government’s response (eventually), “No they didn’t! At least not in time for us to act in the best interests of the public” – AKA, we gambled and lost. But that’s not going to stop us riding the gravy train of AGW, umm, we mean funding worthless ‘alternative renewable energy’, umm, tapping the incredible potential of this revenue stream…

    It’s pathetic, really. It smacks of playground behaviour.

  68. Sooooo… let me get this straight… they were so wary from the poor treatment that they received when wrongly predicting the “BBQ Summer” that in response they made a wrong prediction of a warmer than average winter when they knew it would be wrong?

    In other news they want us to think that they are smart by convincing us that they are stupid.

  69. Robert of Ottawa said at 6:26 pm:

    How about HINDCOVERING?

    I said at 3:53 pm:

    Hindcovering?
    ;-)

    Great minds think alike. Often there’s a time delay. Makes for interesting patent fights.

    Although it’s more palatable to think the Met Office was merely ripping off P.T. Barnum. Nowadays they really have to work hard at fooling only some of the people for just some of the time.

  70. So, what if I tell you that one year from now the stock market index will be higher? If it is, I was right and if it isn’t, no problem, I just didn’t want you to panic… Using the same line of logic as the MET Office, my Market Predictions are always correct!!!

  71. “Green Sand says:
    January 4, 2011 at 4:30 pm

    There are also one or two of us who would like to know what is going on with HadCRUT3?

    No sign of a November number yet, now 5th Jan?

    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

    Cold got into the super chips? I wonder if we might see a “joint” announcement about 2010 from both side of the pond?”

    A very interesting question!!

    By the way, the November Hadcrut3 number was 0.431, but as you say, it was not on the site you refer to.
    See: http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/12/hadcrut3-2010-will-be-2nd-5th-warmest.html
    A quote from the above:
    “It just happens that since the ClimateGate, Jones’ team is indicating a much lower warming trend than Hansen’s team: Phil Jones’ HadCRUT3 dataset is attributing November 2010 the coolest rating among Novembers and among the four datasets – with a 0.43 °C global anomaly, it was the 7th warmest November – while the GISS dataset says that November 2010 was the warmest November on record.”

    So could this huge and possibly embarrassing difference between #1 and #7 for November make the two of them decide to “homogenize” things better in the future?

  72. I wonder just how happy “the Cabinet” is to have the buck/hot potato passed to them. Because if the MET did tell them, and they encouraged the disastrously blissful ignorance that resulted in the Winter Disaster, they all need to go up against the wall.

  73. To be convinced of catastrophic global warming while freezing to death has to be te epitome if doublethink. Orwell FTW

    The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them….To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies — all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth.

  74. I agree:

    crosspatch says:
    January 4, 2011 at 6:05 pm

    It seems obvious to me that the forecast was withheld for political reasons. If the Met were to produce a forecast of a cold winter, it would possibly contrast with other longer term messages they are disseminating about global warming.
    …………….
    No, they simply did not want to deal with the psychological impact of having to tell people they were in for a third consecutive colder than normal winter while at the same time trying to convince people it was actually getting warmer. This decision must have come from farther up the chain than the meteorologists. This came from a political office or someone afraid of ruffling the feathers of a political office.

    ===========
    George Turner says:
    January 4, 2011 at 7:16 pm

    I would think this would have broader political implications, because now the Met office is putting government politicians in the position of proving to their own constituents that they weren’t lying to the public, and that it’s not their own criminally negligent fault that the UK was unprepared for winter weather.

    What the Met office has done is lay a “Downing Street Memo” at the feet of a bunch of powerful politicians. It might be a fatal mistake, because when falsely accused of lying to the public, politicians greatly prefer to keep their own jobs and can get more than a bit vindictive.

    But what if they are being truthfully accused? What if they, like the bigshots in the Met Office, didn’t want to dilute the “Getting Warmer” message?

    I can easily imagine them sitting on the warning and trying to “stay on message” and hoping they’d slide by with at worst only a slightly colder winter, not one that would be noticed as being way off from the forecast, and so there’d be no reckoning.

    And I can imagine them thinking that the Met Office would never squeal on them even if it did turn really cold. I guess it didn’t occur to them that the criticism of the Met Office might become so intense that its targets would finally crack and spill the beans.

    Of course, this raises the question, If they (our betters) were willing to spin and obfuscate this much here, in order to suppress an inconvenient truth, would they have been willing to do so there?

    And there? And there?

    To ask the question is to answer it.

  75. Mom’s old Maytag washer finally gave up the ghost after 50+ years, but the dryer is still doing the job.

    Our local Maytag repairman (yes, Virginia) informs that the “Maytag-quality spin” isn’t what it used to was, ever since Whirlpool took over the Newton, Iowa based company.

  76. My best suggestion is for the people of the U.K. to find a good law firm and file a class action lawsuit against the gov. and MET for dereliction of duty in the death and hardship caused by their gross misconduct of the people of the UK. Biusness owners as well come together and do the same for finanicial losses. That is if the UK allows class action suits, if not then do it on an individual basis!

  77. Methinks the Met Office is having its own 10:10 moment.

    And that noise off in the distance is 10,000 UK lawyers all arriving at work early to start drafting class action law suits.

    No pressure.

  78. Roger Knights:

    It could be that the politicians were in fact warned, but that also would put them in the hotseat for failing to prepare, which as a government is a fundamental part of their job (keeping up with sidewalks, roads, sewer, gas, and electric). If true then the Met office, for no good reason at all, has revealed something that puts a bunch of powerful politicians in very hot water. The natural response from the politicians would be to virtually defund the Met office and fire all the back-stabbing forecasters.

    However, if the politicians weren’t warned, then the Met office is trying to burn powerful politicians to protect what little remains of their own disastrously poor reputation. In that case the natural response is to defund the Met office and fire all the lying traitorous forecasters.

    There really isn’t a third option.

    I would liken the Met’s new claim to a national bank staff that, completely out of the blue, announces that they’ve been embezzling billions from the public purse but that the politicians knew about it all along. The staff is definitely going to get fired, to the man, and the best they could hope for is to get immunity for their testimony if their claims about the politicians is true.

  79. Brian H said

    “wonder just how happy “the Cabinet” is to have the buck/hot potato passed to them. Because if the MET did tell them, and they encouraged the disastrously blissful ignorance ……….”

  80. I really shouldn’t try catching up on WUWT posts when I’m tired. I just read this one and thought it said that the MET had publicly forecast a warm winter, but now has admitted that it secretly told the government that it was going to be a severely cold winter.

    I know it’s just a misreading, but can you imagine if it were true? That would make them the most incompetent, deceptive, moronic, and criminally negligent organisation in the West.

    Anyway, I’ll come back to reread this later when I’m more awake.

  81. This may have been already said, but I think it’s possible that amongst all the warm winter predictions, they may have discovered that someone within the Met Office had sent a single warming about it being possible that the winter would be very cold. And now the Met Office is latching on to this single warming as some sort of proof that they knew it was going to be cold all along.

  82. Ahh, now I understand. It’s the skeptics fault (again). I don’t know how I could have missed it. . . .

    In my own defense, I made the apparently mistaken assumption that the Met Office was more mature than the average 15 year old girl who retreats pouting to her room when her school-mates are mean to her.

    Here, I thought they owned a pair or two of “big boy pants” over there, which their budget would certainly lead one to believe.

    My bad. I’ll try to do better next time.

  83. Snowgate

    This is not the first time the Met Office have been caught being “economical with the truth”! In Scotland we had people caught on the main Edinburgh – Glasgow motorway for days and afterwards the Met Office and BBC WRONGLY claimed they forecast it.

    They did not! I know because I checked the forecast at 3pm and saw that the weather the next day was predicted to be “FOG”, so I removed the covers from my roof to get on with some work. I must admit I was pretty miffed with their total abysmal failure to forecast that snow!

    But then the next day the BBC (Met Office friends and same global warmists ilk) kept reporting the party line that the Met Office had forecast the weather at 8pm the previous night. 8pm – that is the time their rain radar will have shown a big white line of snow and Met Stations in the North would have been reporting that white stuff. THAT WAS NOT A FORECAST BUT A HINDCAST

    SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE SNOWGATE

    …………………………….Met Office…………………………….

    (you’ll have to imagine the graphic as the snowgate gradually falls down like the old alien invaders gradually smothering the useless Met Backcasting corportation)

  84. The Met Office with its biased computer model is bound to show a milder than average winter for every winter. It’s warning to the government must be a forecast plagiarised from Piers Corbyn.

  85. How the UK Met Office sees itself…..and justifies its multi-million pound existence….

    “Working at the Met Office means working for an employer whose operations have a real impact on the lives of everyone.

    If you watched, listened to or read the news this morning it is likely that the Met Office played an important part in much of the coverage — we are the most well-known weather information supplier in the UK.

    We employ around 1,800 people at 60 sites across the world, most (about 1,400) working out of our headquarters at Exeter.

    Our vision is to be recognised as the best weather and climate service in the world. Leading-edge science, innovation and research are crucial for us to meet that goal. From the technical aspects of collecting weather data, to world-leading numerical models, to state-of-the-art software, science goes to the core of our business.”

  86. On the upside, now the MET has said they forecast a cold winter, it should get a bit warmer….

    Time for a few questions on the floor of the house of commons. I’ll write to my MP and get him to ask a couple of awkward questions.

    When and to whom did the MET supply this forecast?
    What plan does the government have in place for compensating individuals who slipped and broke limbs on the ice on ungritted paths? And for businesses who lost money due to the inadequate supply of grit on roads?

    Someone should have told the MET that when they find themselves in a deep snowdrift, they should stop digging downwards.

    So much for ‘open government’ eh Dave ‘Greenwash’ Cameron!

  87. In the 12th century England, it has been punishable by death (hanging) to claim to be able to predict the weather.

    There has been some progress during the last 800 years. Now they pay for the same crime.

  88. Reposted comment from Bishop Hill:-

    Of course the problem with the MET Office isn’t their almost-brand-new £30M Supercomputer or its proposed replacement with one four times as powerful. They would be just as dogma driven and incompetent if they had the computer power of the Pentagon on one hand or an old Amstrad on the other.

    The problem is that they are staffed up with hard line ecotards like Pope & Sligo, who take every opportunity to promote their AGW religion. And led by an even more hard line ecotard like Robert Napier – just awarded a CBE for “Public Service”. (A bit like awarding one to Harold Shipman for “Patient Care”.)

    And it isn’t just a cruel stroke of fate that led to him getting this post, it was because the Government and senior figures in the Civil Service chose him precisely because he is a hard line ecotard.

    If in any doubt, check out the 2010 report “Zero Carbon Britain 2030″, which has the MET Office (together with the University of East Anglia and other usual suspects) as “partners”.

    This is firmly in the pixie dust and away-with-the-faries end of the energy debate. Note that even LoonyHuhne only pretended that the UK could be “zero carbon” by 2050 in the LibDim election manifesto.

    “Zero Carbon” by 2030? Really? And we have a publically funded body like the MET Office on board?

    And you are surprised that their forecasts are crap?

    Jan 3, 2011 at 4:02 PM | Martin Brumby

  89. From the Delingpole article comments:

    Robert Napier, Chairman of the Met Office board, is or has been:
    – Chairman of the Green Fiscal Trust
    – Chairman of the trustees of the World Centre of Monitoring of Conservation
    – a director of the Carbon Disclosure Project
    – a director of the Carbon Group
    – Chief executive of the World Wildlife Fund UK
    He is also a member of the Green Alliance.

  90. I think the Met Office have got it just right. Predict two completely opposite outcomes and then no matter what actually happens you are bound to have made a CORRECT forecast.

    These guys are brilliant and whoever is in charge deserves a knighthood…….oh, he just has!

  91. Keep the part of the Met Office that produces the Shipping Forecasts and scrap the rest.

    Give the job of predicting the UK weather to Joe B. and Piers C. Pay them handsomely.

    The only snag will be that if any prediction is even slightly inaccurate then sadly Joe B. and Piers C. will be vilified unlike the Met Office mistakes/lies/inaccuracy that pass through the media with barely a whisper – if that.

  92. Alexander Feht says:
    January 5, 2011 at 12:16 am

    In the 12th century England, it has been punishable by death (hanging) to claim to be able to predict the weather.

    There has been some progress during the last 800 years. Now they pay for the same crime.

    The same law should be re-enacted, with just one word change: “climate” instead of “weather”.

  93. George Turner says:
    January 4, 2011 at 9:59 pm
    ………..
    I would liken the Met’s new claim to a national bank staff that, completely out of the blue, announces that they’ve been embezzling billions from the public purse but that the politicians knew about it all along. The staff is definitely going to get fired, to the man, and the best they could hope for is to get immunity for their testimony if their claims about the politicians is true.

    But it’s not THE Met that’s blowing the whistle, it’s most likely an aggrieved individual whistleblower or an aggrieved meteorological faction within that body who are looking to get even with the ruling “political” faction. That’s what I implied when I led off my comment with the following quote, which I tagged “I agree”:

    crosspatch says:
    January 4, 2011 at 6:05 pm

    It seems obvious to me that the forecast was withheld for political reasons. If the Met were to produce a forecast of a cold winter, it would possibly contrast with other longer term messages they are disseminating about global warming.
    …………….
    This decision must have come from farther up the chain than the meteorologists. This came from a political office or someone afraid of ruffling the feathers of a political office.

  94. You wicked cruel nasty people! Leave our wonderful genious Wet Office alone. I hear that the BBC has contracted the WO’s Drs Slingo & Pope to jointly chair a revised version of the classic radio quiz show, “I’m sorry I haven’t a clue”!

  95. Werner Brozek says:
    January 4, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    “By the way, the November Hadcrut3 number was 0.431, but as you say, it was not on the site you refer to.”
    See: http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/12/hadcrut3-2010-will-be-2nd-5th-warmest.html
    —————————————————————————————

    Neither is it on the site that Luboš Motl refers to. But it can be found, with difficulty at:-

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/hadcrut3.html

    There is a link on “monthly data” in “Monthly near-surface from 1850”

    If you have a look, please see if you can reconcile the monthly numbers with the “annual data” on the same page, I can’t!

    Maybe time will tell?

  96. “Surely the good people of the UK have to be sick of this by now?”

    Yes, we bloody well are!

    Write or e-mail your local MP making it clear that you’re sick of the one-sidedness of the whole AGW topic. Our voices are being ignored by those in Westminster. We’ve had enough.

    Make a list of scientific facts about CO2, etc.; make a list of proper scientists and science organisations across the world who are opposed to both the claims that CO2 is a pollutant and the debasement of science due to the politicisation of climate science.

    MPs are obliged to respond, they may even be obliged to pass on your letter to the Energy Secretary himself. However far the letters go, make your opinion known to those people who establish policy in this country. Don’t just whine about it on websites.

    For those who missed the Electricity Market Reform Statement in the House of Commons, here is the text http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/emr_os/emr_os.aspx (unfortunately, the video from the HoC is no longer available on the BBC website – if anyone recorded it please put it online so everyone can see what we’re up against).

    The same applies to all members of the electorate across the world: write to your parliamentary representative – they work for you, we are not subservient to them, so please make your voice heard via the official channel that is your constitutional right.

  97. So either ….

    The MO saw the cold coming and duly warned ministers. Being imbeciles ministers ignored the warnings.

    OR….

    The MO are as good at spinning facts as they are at long term weather forecasting.

    This should be fun. In the blue corner we have professional baby kissers who can spin their way out of just about anything. In the other corner we have the MO. If I were a betting man…

  98. Henry Keswick says:
    January 5, 2011 at 12:46 am

    I think the Met Office have got it just right. Predict two completely opposite outcomes and then no matter what actually happens you are bound to have made a CORRECT forecast.

    Welcome to the wacky world of CAGW.

    Remember: The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it.

  99. What a execrable bit of spin from Roger Harrabin and the Biased Broadcasting Corporation. It might have worked 20 years ago, but now we live in the age of the Internet and Little Brother is watching and recording. When the BBC and Roger decide to slink away from AGW, they may try moving on to “Biocrisis” or “Peak energy” and see how far that gets them. We’ll be waiting for them. Skeptics are not that forgiving and the Internet does not forget…

  100. tallbloke says:
    January 5, 2011 at 12:00 am
    ‘I’ll write to my MP and get him to ask a couple of awkward questions.’

    I wish I could say the same – my MP is Britain’s only Green member, the appalling Caroline Lucas.

  101. The MET office now make several forecasts, they stick them in draw and later after the event thay take out the forecasts and publish the one closest to what happened.

    £170M a year Simples

  102. The Met Office issued it’s probability of warmer weather for Nov/Dec/Jan in October; in the West London suburb where I live, temperatures fell below zero degrees C and light snow also fell on the 28th October and continued to fall until Dec 3. Light snow fell again on Dec 8, then temps increased until Dec 17 when temps abruptly dropped to 1deg C and light snow fell once more, which increased to heavy falls on Dec 18 and continued to snow moderately until a final heavy snowfall on Dec 20th. All this in an area where snow is fampous for NOT falling!
    It seems that the Met Office can only forecast with reasonable accuracy when the weather appears on the radar. Their Teraflop computer is as useful to them as a new formula 1 car would be to me, no matter how much I would like to have such a car in my back yard!
    I suspect Roger Harribin has been very economical with the truth in an attempt to stay in line with the BBC’s Warmist beliefs and to prevent the value of the BBC’s invested pension funds from plummeting in the same manner as carbon trading has.

  103. Given that the Beeb is not as impartial as it keeps telling us, but has a definite slant towards the left, I do wonder if Harrabin thought a little poke at the coalition Government might be useful …

  104. Surely the good people of the UK have to be sick of this by now?

    Yes we are. Perhaps we can hope that ‘Chlorophyll Dave’ Cameron will see this moronity as a personal affront, boneless though he is. Although he does seem able to tolerate Chris Morhuhne as energy secretary. Not holding the breath, though.

    ——
    RichieP says:
    January 5, 2011 at 2:25 am

    tallbloke says:
    January 5, 2011 at 12:00 am
    ‘I’ll write to my MP and get him to ask a couple of awkward questions.’

    I wish I could say the same – my MP is Britain’s only Green member, the appalling Caroline Lucas.

    In that case, write to her ten times as often. She, no doubt, now wants to hang on to her salary and expenses.

  105. “A few protestors with a banner outside the Met Office (shown below) would be all it takes to make the news.”

    Depends on which news you mean – remember how one sided our media are. There would be a far greater chance of Russia Today covering this than the Beeb, that’s for sure….

    And contacting your MP to complain about media bias doesn’t work – I’ve tried on more than one occasion.

  106. The Met Office isn’t very good at Forecast Reconstructions.

    If this is the Met office taking a shot at the coalition government then that makes even less sense given that the coalition government is the only folks would could corroborate the story.

  107. Er….the map is quite accurate -October 2010 WAS exceptionally warm in the UK. However I agree with the main sentiment on here, the Met Office should stick to predicting the weather, not spending half the budget on Climate Change sorry Climate Disruption.

    The airports, roads and railways clearly are under the impression, fed by the Met Office et al, that heavy snowfalls will become very rare events. This is what we were told in 2000 by the Met Office (generations of children will grow up never seeing snow etc). Hence the lack of investment in snow clearing capability.

  108. Robert A says:
    January 4, 2011 at 3:03 pm
    What source is your quote please?
    Also why State and not Central Planning?

    ‘In 1949 some friends and I came upon a noteworthy news item in ‘Nature’, a magazine of the Academy of Sciences. It reported in tiny type that in the course of excavations on the Kolyma River a subterranean ice lens had been discovered which was actually a frozen stream- and in it were found frozen specimens of prehistoric fauna some tens of thousands of years old. Whether fish or salamander, these were preserved in so fresh a state, the scientific correspondent reported, that those present broke open the ice encasing the specimens and devoured then with ‘relish’ on on the spot.

    source: – Solzenitysn A (1974) The Gulag Archipelago

    moderators: I do not know how to use italics in wordpress, as such ‘Nature and relish’ are typed with inverted commas, an aberration from the original text where they are italicised.

  109. Oops–I’ve just read the news stories and now see that this news was broken by a Met Office ‘spokesman.” So I was mistaken when I wrote, about ten posts upthread, that: “But it’s not THE Met that’s blowing the whistle, it’s most likely an aggrieved individual whistleblower …”

    Well, it’ll be fun watching ‘em toss this hot potato around.

  110. Thanks Anthony for expanding my comment at 1.02 on the earlier Weekly Roundup thread.
    I am impressed by the speed with which you expanded my contribution with a plethora of substantiation and a devastating rebuttal of this puerile attempt to spin the MET into a good light.
    I love this blog – it leaves no place to hide!!!!!!

  111. Climate Projections

    If everyone wants a laugh, I suggest that they visit this site. Note the disticntion between projections and forecasts and probability versus possibility.

    http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/12/689/

    I actually saw a presenatation from these people where they said that their projections could guide local authorities to what the weather would be like in 30 years down to a 5km grid!

    Chhers

    Paul

  112. The Norwegian Met office has been under heavy fire the last two very cold months. The reason is that they constantly forecast temperatures that are 8-12 degrees off what is actually observed. According to their website the reason is that they are using model output from….you guessed it….the UK Met office.

  113. So what you are saying is that the “Met Office” is ligit?!?!?!?!? Dear gawd. Where have I been. I thought it was one of the English comedies I get such a big kick out of. Are you sure the acronym is not “Monty’s Excellent Tripe Office”? I’m aghast I say!

  114. I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.

    Also – I too have written to my MP (and e-mailed before his election to ensure I knew his views) and the day that he starts to spout any of the skeptic nonsense I see trotted out here (e.g. Easterbrouke’s debacle) is the day he loses my vote.

  115. @RichieP

    “I wish I could say the same – my MP is Britain’s only Green member, the appalling Caroline Lucas.”

    You have it worse than most, mate. Trying to convince Lucas that her carbon-is-evil mentality is wrong will be near-enough impossible. Still, do your best. The more people in her constituency write to her to highlight the CO2-myth the better.

  116. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am
    I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.

    Also – I too have written to my MP (and e-mailed before his election to ensure I knew his views) and the day that he starts to spout any of the skeptic nonsense I see trotted out here (e.g. Easterbrouke’s debacle) is the day he loses my vote.

    If I was him I would not worry about your vote, there are a lot more to be lost if he carries on supporting AGW.

    UK opinion has moved on and AGW is sooo last year !!!! ;)

  117. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am

    So I guess you wouldn’t dream of commenting on things the USA do then? like CARB, or Afghanistan, etc? But I suppose you think it’s OK for the EU to direct us too?Hmmmm….

  118. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am

    I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.

    Surname Gray, by any chance?

  119. Louise January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am says:

    I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office. …

    I didn’t do the ‘fine read’ (read all the fine details), but is it not British tax-payers/posters “advise[ing] us to picket the Met Office”?

    Please note also, Louise, the reference to other websites e.g. the Telegraph in the initial posting.

    .

  120. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am

    I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.

    Also – I too have written to my MP (and e-mailed before his election to ensure I knew his views) and the day that he starts to spout any of the skeptic nonsense I see trotted out here (e.g. Easterbrouke’s debacle) is the day he loses my vote.

    It may amaze you, but we actually have that right here in the U.S., Louise.

    Feel free to write your MP and tell them what ever you want, but if your Met Office doesn’t get it’s act together then don’t expect your elected officials to stick by them when they could just as easily listen to Piers Corbyn and actually be prepared for once.

  121. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am

    I am a British Tax payer.

    I think it is odious that a group of foolish activist extremists posing as climate scientists should be given any taxpayer’s money whatsoever.

  122. latitude says:
    January 4, 2011 at 5:55 pm

    What was your first clue………….

    Did you not ask an answer the question in the same post where you asked above and stated below:

    ….it was -6 degrees on October 25 you numbnuts!

    Seems self explanatory to me. :)

  123. I haven’t read all the comments but . . . .

    I think your story is why “they” changed the term Climate Warming to Climate Change . . . Heads you Lose . . . Tails “they” Win! Regardless, “they” still assert “we” caused it!

  124. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am
    ‘I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office. Also – I too have written to my MP (and e-mailed before his election to ensure I knew his views) and the day that he starts to spout any of the skeptic nonsense I see trotted out here (e.g. Easterbrouke’s debacle) is the day he loses my vote.’

    Doncha wish you had that nice little Red Button handy, Louise? That’d sort out all us awful, awful people wouldn’t it? Pah! (And I’m a British tax payer too, so there.)

  125. @Louise says: January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am

    “I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.”

    Well, I’m another British tax-payer and I could find it in my heart to forgive if the USAAF carpet bombed the MET Office.

  126. If it is true that the Met. Office advised the government that it was going to be a very bad winter and the government did not pass on this vital information to the general public, then the government has to be held to account. Did the information get passed on to the Department of the Environment, The Highways Agency, The Department of Health, The Chief Medical Officer, The BBC, and the Press Association? If not why not. We need some explanations from government officials for a very serious failing in their duty if they just ignored the information they were given, a failing that has led to such widespread havoc across the whole of the country.

  127. Piers Corbyn is forceasting ‘one of the three coldest January’s in the last 100 years’. It’s already clear he is wrong, that it isn’t going to pan out like that.

    Why American fall for BS like that beats me – are all your clocks stuck? All his ‘deluges’ here and ‘coldest ever’ there, BS the lot of it.

    On the other hand The Met office do a fantastic job, their forecast are excellent. Perhaps it is possible that they can be better judged from a distance of several thousand miles than by those who live in Britain. Maybe, or maybe it’s knee jerk right wing political attitudes that detests anything that’s even loosely connected to the state and will instead rather part with it’s money for any old codswallop if the anti AGW credentials of the salesman are right. Yeah, that’s it.

  128. I’ve sent Freedom of Information requests to both the Met Office and the UK government’s Cabinet Office asking for this “secret warning” from the Met Office.

  129. I’m also a UK Taxpayer. So Louise, tell us, whatever you think about the views on here, what do you think of the “solutions”? Do you support carbon trading for example?
    Do you think the Met office is doing its job when its advice has led to the transport chaos in the extreme cold we’ve seen recently?

  130. Peter H says:
    January 5, 2011 at 9:17 am

    Ahh, Peter, do you think maybe you’re being just a tad too subtle here?

  131. Stuart Huggett says:
    January 4, 2011 at 6:41 pm
    We have to remember in this astonishing story that the head of the Met Office – one Napier – has just been awarded the CBE for services to the nation. I understand that he is an ardent AGW activist and his role in this event must have been interesting!

    Napier is a former CEO of WWF UK. Obviously must have a CV which emphasised his scientific abilities to be worthy of UKMet. (sarc/off)

  132. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am
    I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.

    Also – I too have written to my MP (and e-mailed before his election to ensure I knew his views) and the day that he starts to spout any of the skeptic nonsense I see trotted out here (e.g. Easterbrouke’s debacle) is the day he loses my vote.

    I am also a UK taxpayer. I believe the sooner the Met Office is shut down the better! If they won’t shut it down it should be sold-off to private industry where they would HAVE to get their forecasts more right than at present to keep their jobs.
    Presumably you are a supporter of Huhne (the so-called Energy Minister). Do you support his efforts to drive up inflation by all this “carbon credit” nonsense? Do you support his efforts to redirect what remaining industry we have in this country overseas e.g. to India and China, by the “carbon credit” nonsense?
    Have you made any attempt whatsoever to research the Climate Change arguement for yourself or do you just believe the BBC?

  133. David Jones says:
    January 5, 2011 at 11:40 am

    While Louise can do nothing about the UK government or the Met, I see no harm in expressing her disgust with it. While you may have never expressed such disgust with a foreign government, I have seen many comments from non-Americans and non-Australians criticizing those governments. Clearly they are “railing at windmills” in doing so, but I do not get outraged by their comments, informed or not.

  134. Peter H says:
    January 5, 2011 at 9:17 am

    “or maybe it’s knee jerk right wing political attitudes that detests anything that’s even loosely connected to the state and will instead rather part with it’s money for any old codswallop if the anti AGW credentials of the salesman are right.”

    Wrong on all sorts of levels, but particularly so with regard to the free will parting with their right wing money , as opposed to the confiscation through taxes of monies for economically illiterate left wing and green projects in the name of saving the planet codswallop.

  135. Seems clear to me that as the govt funds the MET, the MET decided the most politic thing to do when they realised how cold it was going to get in the runup to Cancun was to tell the Govt and leave it to them to inform the public… or not…

  136. savethesharks says:
    January 4, 2011 at 7:36 pm

    Palin Smith says:
    January 4, 2011 at 6:15 pm

    “Is there none but Daniel Hannan who will stand and fight for what’s right?!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs

    =======================

    [...]

    I see the fire in his eyes and I know there are many on here who share the same fire (but not necessarily the eloquence).

    Truly, the world needs more actual REAL leaders…. like this guy.

    Yes. He says (at 0:50) “The truth, prime minister, is that you have run out of our money. The country, as a whole, is now in negative equity. Every British child is born owing around twenty thousand pounds. Servicing the interest on that debt is going to cost more than educating the child.”

    (at 1:45) “We are now running a deficit that touches 10% of GDP, an almost unbelievable figure. More than Pakistan, more than Hungary(!), countries where the IMF has already been called in.”

    As a Hungarian, I can tell you, you’re in deep trouble indeed. In a situation like this the first thing to do is to regain some backbone. As soon as it’s done, the actual REAL leader would pop up from nowhere fast enough. And then, your main concern would be more like how to control the guy than anything else. It’s never easy.

  137. People of Britain would be much better served by the 85% accurate, extremely long range predictions of Piers Corbin at Weather Action armed with only his laptop computer than with the inept Met Office with all its bloated budgets and supercomputers that cannot forecast their way out of a paper bag.

  138. One particularly aggrieved person right now must be Laurence MacKenzie, CEO of Northern Ireland Water. He is being required to stand down as his handling of the burst pipe water shortage throughout Northern Ireland has been seen to be less than outstanding. One comedy comment from the Stourmont Assembly was “Heads will roll, and it isn’t going to be a politician”, according to the BBC; odd as NI Water is a government organization, unlike the rest of the UK which is in private hands.
    It begs the questions;
    “Was he informed of the Met Office’s ‘secret’ prediction and if not why not?”
    “If he was informed then why did he not take sufficient steps to ensure the obvious results of the deep freeze were mitigated?”
    “If he was informed did the government insist he carry on as normal to prevent any ‘leakage’ of the secret?”
    Possibly now would be a good time to ask him; he is due to leave office imminently and surely in the right frame of mind to set the record straight.

  139. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am
    “I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.”

    Louise, don’t forget that Global Warming is a global problem! (or global non-problem, depending on your point of view.)

  140. The BBC News weather forecast did not mention snow for our area of the Cotswolds on Monday night, but we sure had snow! Tuesday morning our local side roads were lethal and there was a traffic accident nearby. Thanks for the warning Met Office…I don’t think.

  141. Long range forecasting by the Met Office only ever gave a forecast based on “Lower than Average”, “Average” or “Above average” for Temperature, Precipitation, Sunshine hours.

    They actually managed to get a worst result than you would get just having a random guess. With a random guess you would expect about 33% correct, the Met office were actually worse ! Amazing!

    So my Theory is that the Piers Corbyn method is just guess exactly opposite to the Met Office forecast and you will be on a winner.

    I tried it for a blissful few years, and ended up about 70% correct, strange the Met Office never answered any e-mail from me on the subject.

  142. kzb wrote in a comment at:
    January 5, 2011 at 4:40 am
    “Er….the map is quite accurate -October 2010 WAS exceptionally warm in the UK. However I agree with the main sentiment on here, the Met Office should stick to predicting the weather, not spending half the budget on Climate Change sorry Climate Disruption.”

    October was not warm in England – the Central England Mean Temperature for October 2010 was 10.3 celsius – 0.3 below the 1961-90 mean!

  143. I think The Met should have never come up with this. Because as a government agency, if they did sit on such a forecast, and instead forecast a mild winter, they should be held legally accountable for all the death and damage of citizens who were told one thing would happen but got hit hard by a different thing.

    To tell people winter would be mild when you knew it would be cold seems to be a criminal act.

    If this story is true then there has to be criminal charges following.

  144. This just in:
    Dateline, Mexico City, January 10, 2110

    Climate scientists have confirmed that the glaciers now covering Canada and moving into the northern United States are consistent with global warming. “You can’t confuse weather with climate” said one climatologist who asked not to be identified for fear of being lynched. “The accumulation of so much ice on land is limited to the northern hemisphere, and is just an example of the temperature extremes that result from global warming” cautioned another climate scientist, also requesting anonymity. One unnamed progressive academic, channeling the spirit of James Hansen, reassured this reporter that Hansen’s predictions of catastrophic global warming were accurate, it’s just that his timing was off by a number of millennia.

    Further demonstrating the accuracy of the consensus predictions of impending doom due to anthropogenic climate change, Michael Mann, IV just published a paleo reconstruction of global temperatures in Nature. This meticulously peer reviewed paper shows conclusively that the adjusted global average temperature in the years from 1970 to 2010 was actually much colder than previously thought, thus making 2110 the warmest year in recorded history. His paper includes a graph showing that the “2nd Millennial Warm Period,” from 1970 to 1998, was grossly exaggerated. “Anecdotal evidence of liquid lakes in Canada, the U.S and Great Britain during this period should not be used to ignore the science” warned Mann.

    In other news, the British Met Office, having relocated to Sao Paulo, Brazil due to the 10 meters of ice now covering Great Britain, forecasts a warm winter ahead.

  145. “Green Sand says:
    January 5, 2011 at 1:42 am

    If you have a look, please see if you can reconcile the monthly numbers with the “annual data” on the same page, I can’t! Maybe time will tell?”

    I cannot see it either. So that leaves two options. Add all 11 numbers and divide by 11. Or note that the 0.499 was for 10 months, so multiply 0.499 by 10 and add 0.431 and divide by 11. This gives 0.493. Now just for the fun of it, UAH went down by about 0.09 from November to December. and should Hadcrut3 do the same, its December value would be 0.34 and the yearly anomaly would be 0.480 and it would end up third warmest on the Hadcrut3 data set.
    In the meantime, we wait, and wait.

    TIME AND TIDE WAIT FOR NO MAN, BUT WE ALL WAIT FOR HADCRUT.

  146. To tell people winter would be mild when you knew it would be cold seems to be a criminal act.

    If this story is true then there has to be criminal charges following.

    In the US I would imagine something like this would be a civil matter. It seems to me it would be difficult to craft a law to make such claims illegal (technically, I don’t think any government agent is actually required to tell the truth unless under oath.) A nice hefty lawsuit, however, since such an act could easily be considered negligent given the weight of their words…

    Mark

  147. UK John says:
    January 5, 2011 at 3:51 pm
    “So my Theory is that the Piers Corbyn method is just guess exactly opposite to the Met Office forecast and you will be on a winner.

    I tried it for a blissful few years, and ended up about 70% correct, strange the Met Office never answered any e-mail from me on the subject.”

    Likewise, I discovered that 8/9 global forecasts were high … which is about as likely as tossing a coin 9 times and getting heads each time which I think is 1 in 512. But what’s worse is that no one cares that the Met Office are completely useless. Try to tell a politicians and they totally ignore you. Try to get the Met Office to admit their forecasts are useless … and they hide the forecasts. The Met Office, which was once something to be proud of are just a joke these days.

  148. Anthony writes: “They apparently just don’t know when to stop talking.”

    The CAGW boffins don’t know “The First Rule of Holes” which is stated as:

    1. When you find you’ve dug yourself into a hole: stop digging.

  149. Louise says:
    January 5, 2011 at 6:07 am
    “I’m a British tax-payer and I think it is odious that this USA based site should feel that it has a right to advise us to picket the Met Office.”

    Louise, you think it is odious not because some of our across-the-pond cousins are suggesting what we should do or think, but because you disagree with their position. Did you think it was odious when Jim Hanson flew over to gave his support to the Kingsnorth coal power station protesters? Do you think we (in the UK) should stop giving support to Mugabe’s opponents in Zimbabwe ? And I bet you supported the students in Tienanmen Square. The best thing about the internet is that permits easy communication and exchange of ideas and information between individuals across national boundaries, circumventing our predominantly dodgy national governments. That’s what I like to think anyway. Think global and all that.

  150. Apologies folks if this has already been covered more accurately above – didn’t have time to trawl through all your posts.
    Unfortunately came in on the ‘tail end’ of an item on BBC News 24 relating to December 2010 being the coldest for 100 years, and some guy in their Oxford studio, was doing a not-very-good job of waffling on about: ‘Actually the world is getting warmer due to climate change and we can prove it IF ONLY THE MET OFFICE HAD MORE POWERFUL COMPUTERS…’ (I kid you not..)
    The news anchorman was clearly unimpressed..!

  151. Wouldn’t those firms that pay the Met Office for early weather predictions have a strong case for breach of contract if they weren’t told about the forthcoming cold spell?

    It would be interesting to see the Met in court trying to have it both ways.

  152. As far as I’m aware, Piers (Richard) Corbyn was the only person who predicted in advance the winter weather.
    Post hoc predictions we can all do with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight

  153. The Met Office’s slavish adherance to AGW theory prevents it from having a rational and objective position on a range of issues and almost certainly leads to the regular production of ‘regional probability map’ forecasts which always anticipate above average temperatures.

    It is perfectly clear that the Met Office ran those maps and that they predicted a very low probability of a below average temperature winter all the way up to November. In other words, the long range seasonal forecast of the Met Office was the same as always (WARM!) .

    BUT….they have not claimed to have given the government advance warning of the severe weeks long freeze that hit the UK. What the Met Office claims is simply –

    ‘In late October we informed the Cabinet office that there were early indications of a cold start to winter’

    Winter hit the UK hard in November, so what is being claimed here is that perhaps as little as a week in advance the Met Office mentioned to a minister or ministers (in what context we do not know) that the onset of winter (ie a week or two ahead) would likely be cold.

    This doesn’t make the claim any less irritating or stupid but does indicate that it does not provide the smoking gun so many seem to think.

    The Met Office needs reform and it needs to be forced out of the political/propaganda business and back to focussing on what we pay it to do. This is not the ‘scandal’ that will provoke such a change though I’m afraid.

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