Another California refinery closure will threaten national and global economies

Jet fuel from refineries based in foreign countries face monumental logistical challenges to keep California airports open.

Ronald Stein, P.E.  is an engineer, columnist on energy literacy at America Out Loud NEWS, and advisor on energy literacy for the Heartland Institute and CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.” He is also the recipient of an unsolicited Tribute to Ronald Stein from Stephen Heins.

Mike Ariza is a US Navy veteran with over twenty years of experience in the refining industry. His refining experience extends from the Chevron Refinery in Richmond California, the Flying J refinery in Bakersfield, and the Valero Refinery in Benicia. Mike held the positions of number one control board Operator at Flying J and Senior Refinery Control Board Supervisor at Valero. He was an instructor of both operator field and control board classes. Among his peers he is often referred to as one of the top ten control board operators in the country. 

Co-authored by Ronald Stein, and Mike Ariza

Published June 15, 2026, in America Out Loud NEWS

https://www.americaoutloud.news/another-california-refinery-closure-will-threaten-national-and-global-economies

According to the Energy Information Administration, Today, California ranks first in jet fuel demand among the states.

The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects in-state jet fuel demand will rise significantly in the long term, growing from about 271 thousand barrels per day (TBD) in 2023 to an estimated 378 TBD by 2045. These jet fuel demand rates in barrels per day are the equivalent rates in gallons per day, from 11.3 million gallons per day in 2023 to 15.9 million gallons per day by 2045.

The aviation sector accounts for roughly 16% of California’s total crude oil product use.

With no pipelines over the Sierra Mountains, California is an energy island separated from the crude oil supply and the infrastructure of oil refineries within the other 49 States. Thus, California transportation fuel demands for airports, cars, trucks, and the ships serving three of the busiest port terminals in America have staggering numbers MADE FROM in-state refineries:

  • Jet fuel: With all its 145 airports, including 9 international airports and 41 military airports, the demand is 13 million gallons of aviation fuel daily in 2026.  Several of those airports have direct pipelines to local refineries.  
  • Gasoline: For its 30 million vehicles, California is the second-largest consumer of motor gasoline among the 50 states, consuming 42 million gallons a day of gasoline, just behind Texas.
  • Diesel: Diesel fuel used in California, consuming 10 million gallons a day of diesel to support the state’s trucking of products from 3 of the busiest shipping ports in America.
  • Fuel for the ships in three of the busiest Ports in America, located in California. 
  • Port of Los Angeles had more than 1,800 vessel arrivals in 2024, which includes cruise and merchant ships.
  • Port of Long Beach handled over 9.6 million container units in 2024, indicating a very high volume of ship activity, plus cruise ships.
  • Port of Oakland, which also handles significant cargo volumes, contributes to the total number of cruise and merchant ships needing fuel.

California refineries have produced ALL the in-State transportation fuels demanded on the California Energy Island. With two recent refinery closures, Governor Newsom CANNOT explain WHERE the transportation fuels will come from to support the DAILY CONSUMPTION of 13 million gallons of aviation fuel for 9 international airports and 41 military airports.

California is the nation’s largest jet-fuel consumer. Roughly 20% of supply is now imported from refineries located in foreign countries, primarily from India and other Asian refiners (South Korea). Imports have surged alongside two recent California refinery closures. Today, California now has only seven operating refineries.

Five major refineries in California produce jet fuel, with the bulk of the state’s supply concentrated in Southern California. The primary refineries providing jet fuel include:

  • Chevron El Segundo Refinery: Located in El Segundo, this is a massive supplier for the region, producing over 40% of Southern California’s jet fuel.
  • Valero Wilmington Refinery: Located in the Port of Los Angeles area, it processes heavy crudes specifically to blend and produce jet fuel.
  • PBF Energy Torrance Refinery: Located in Torrance, this facility produces approximately 1.8 billion gallons of transportation fuels annually, including jet fuel.
  • Marathon Los Angeles Refinery: Located in the Carson/Wilmington area, it is the largest refinery on the West Coast.
  • Chevron Richmond Refinery. Located in Richmond, CA. With Valero Benicia offline, the Chevron Refinery now supplies all the jet fuel for Travis Air Force Base and 60% of the jet for SFO and other NorCal airports.
  • When the Chevron El Segundo Refinery went down from the fire on its North Isomax Unit it took a lot of jet fuel offline with it.  Due to the loss, a tanker had to be dispatched from the gulf coast with nearly 500,000 barrels of jet on board. In addition, a significant amount of jet was shipped from Northern California down to LA. 

California’s declining oil production and refinery closures, caused by the state’s energy policies, have created an aviation fuel crisis. California has gone from a state of energy dominance to energy dependent. This dependency on imports from refineries in foreign countries is a direct threat to National security.

Three of the largest ports in America are in California. Los Angeles and Long Beach in Southern California and Oakland in Northern California. It is important to note that these ports cannot handle large volumes of imported fuel due to infrastructure limitations. This is because California’s instate refineries were designed to provide for California’s fuel requirements. With the current refineries that have shut down and the potential for additional refineries shutting down both military and our civilian airports are put at extreme risk due to those port infrastructure limitations.

There are approximately 700 to 800 direct daily flights from the rest of the United States into California. If you include outbound flights, as well as cargo, private aircraft, and international arrivals, daily flight operations easily exceed 3,500 to 4,500 state-wide.

California has nine primary commercial airports that hold international status, offering global routes or designated U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) facilities for international flights and arrivals.

Here are the nine international airports in California:

Los Angeles International Airport (LAX); San Francisco International Airport (SFO); San Diego International Airport (SAN); San Jose Mineta International Airport (SJC); Sacramento International Airport (SMF); Oakland International Airport (OAK); Ontario International Airport (ONT); John Wayne Airport (SNA); Fresno Yosemite International Airport (FAT).

Several U.S. military installations, including Travis Air Force Base and Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake, rely almost entirely on California refineries for their jet fuel. 

For the 30 military airports in California, there is no singular, exact number of daily flights state-wide for military because military missions constantly fluctuate, and flight tallies across the state’s airports are highly dynamic.

However, looking at daily activity at major commercial hubs across California provides a clear picture of the state’s flight volume:

  • Major International Hubs: California’s premier international gateways handle thousands of daily operations. Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) leads the state, regularly serving well over 1,500 commercial flights per day, while San Francisco International Airport (SFO) handles around 1,100 to 1,200 daily flights.
  • Other Commercial International Airports: Facilities like San Diego International (SAN), San Jose (SJC), and Oakland (OAK) handle hundreds of scheduled passenger and cargo flights daily, connecting the state with international destinations like Mexico and Canada.
  • Military & Joint-Use Airports: California houses numerous military installations (such as Edwards Air Force Base, Naval Air Station Lemoore, and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar). The exact number of flights from these is not publicly released by the Department of Defense.

State regulators adopted a sweeping climate plan to slash carbon dioxide emissions by 85% below 1990 levels by 2045. The blueprint includes cutting oil and gas consumption to less than one-tenth of today’s levels, a target that further clouds the investment outlook for refineries already weighing whether to upgrade, convert, or shut down.

California’s current posture coupled with the Iranian war will see California brought to its knees if another refinery goes offline. If you look at the three most recent refinery fires resulting in refinery downtime it becomes abundantly clear about how vulnerable we truly are. 

  • In the case of Chevron in El Segundo a thin spot on a furnace tube that was missed during inspection failed. 
  • At PBF in Martinez a maintenance contractor got on the wrong side of a block valve opening a flange on the live side of the process resulting in a huge release and fire.
  • At Valero a 30-foot section of a stack on furnace 701 separated and fell to the ground. It landed on equipment below causing a major release and fire. This stack is 56 years old. It was never inspected due to inaccessibility. This is a major problem with all our refineries; they are getting old.

Thus, energy literacy conversations with California policymakers are required, as a closure of just one of the remaining seven operating California refinery would impact National Security and International economies.

Please share this information with teachers, students, and friends to encourage Energy Literacy conversations at the family dinner table.

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43 Comments
Tom Halla
June 16, 2026 6:07 am

CARB operates on the premise “demand the impossible” will drive behavior.

conrad ziefle
Reply to  Tom Halla
June 16, 2026 2:07 pm

Typical low science understanding that does not understand basic principles of thermodynamics, and thinks basic laws can be overcome by wish, because in electronics they have advanced so rapidly, why can’t the Carnot Cycle be altered to meet the desires of regulators, environmentalists, and others? California has been a long time in self destructing, as disasters naturally catch up to bad management, they blame climate change, rather than bad ideas in governance.

Denis
June 16, 2026 6:28 am

Perhaps if more refineries see a need to close, the Federal Government should purchase them and operate them for Defense (or is it War) purposes. As to civilian needs, that’s California’s problem.

Reply to  Denis
June 16, 2026 7:48 am

Jet fuel makes up only a fraction of refined crude, so probably a lot cheaper for the military to haul in what it needs.

Denis
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 16, 2026 8:31 am

I don’t know the details but the DOD needs all kinds of fuel and lubricants for their machinery including for jets, tanks, ships, helicopters and vehicles of all other sorts. I hope only that should the need arise, the DOD decision will be one that minimizes the cost to you and me.

JTraynor
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 16, 2026 11:05 am

Military jet (JP5) is a special kinda jet fuel. Not everyone makes it. Refiners outside of California would have to convert ($$$) and you still need to pipe it in ($$$$$) over the mountains. Easier to relocate the bases.

California politicians have screwed Californians.

conrad ziefle
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 16, 2026 2:09 pm

But you don’t see the leverage?

KevinM
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 18, 2026 8:38 pm

Not sure what “haul in what it needs” means. You mean import? From whom/where?

The original source could be anywhere, but who will be the one who sells directly to the F16 jet refuelers?

MarkW
Reply to  Denis
June 16, 2026 9:04 am

Jets flying to Asia and Australia refuel on the west coast before crossing the Pacific.
They could refuel further inland, but the costs will rise.

Reply to  MarkW
June 17, 2026 4:26 am

Nope. Big jets have a huge difference between max takeoff weight and max landing weight. Example a B777-300er used to fly from LAX to Sydney, has a max takeoff weight of 775,000 lbs, a max landing weight of 554,000 lbs and can carry 320,853 lbs of fuel with full tanks.

For the 16 hour flight to Sydney, it burns or requires (burn plus 45 minute reserve) 291,000 lbs of fuel. So it cannot fuel further inland. The max landing restriction means it can only have approx 70,000 lbs of fuel if it refueled further inland with a passenger load. And it could only have ~180,000 lbs of fuel onboard if it flew from the inland refueling spot with zero passengers. Either way not enough to make it to Sydney or anywhere in Asia.

D Sandberg
Reply to  Denis
June 16, 2026 2:29 pm

Trump should declare a national emergency and open federal offshore California (>3-miles beyond State of California coastal reserves) and open a narrow strip of federal ANWR coastal plain reserves to replace diminishing production from Alaska Northshore that California has relied on for decades. The pipeline to deliver the crude to Valdez, Alaska, and the ports at San Francisco and Los Angles to receive the oil are already in place.

California needs a million barrels of crude oil per day, for those who say it would take >10 years for production from those two sources, I say, bull feathers. Look what US oil and gas did in North Dakota bringing a million barrels/day online:

1) The full boom

2) There was a very rapid ramp in the early 2010s:

https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f449.svg That’s ~+700,000 b/d in ~4 years
Or even tighter:

  • ~547,000 b/d (Jan 2012)~1.09 million b/d (mid‑2014) [aei.org]

https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/1f449.svg ~+540,000 b/d in ~2.5 years

D Sandberg
Reply to  D Sandberg
June 16, 2026 2:38 pm

Alaska North Slope crude production has been in long‑term decline since peaking in 1988, steadily reducing throughput in the Trans‑Alaska Pipeline System and pushing flows toward operational minimums. Maintaining and increasing TAPS throughput requires adding new barrels, not just slowing decline in legacy fields.
The adjacent ANWR Coastal Plain, which the U.S. Geological Survey estimates contains billions of barrels of technically recoverable oil, is the largest remaining undeveloped onshore prospect capable of materially increasing North Slope production and sustaining pipeline operations over the long term. Bringing the Coastal Plain into development would directly support higher throughput, improve system reliability, and extend the economic life of TAPS. [akbizmag.com], [eia.gov], [eia.gov], [everycrsreport.com]
Trans‑Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) Throughput

  • 1977–1980: ~1.0–1.5 million barrels per day (kbd)
  • 1981–1988 (peak years): ~1.8–2.03 million bpd
  • 1989–1994: ~1.3–1.6 million bpd
  • 1995–2000: ~1.0–1.2 million bpd
  • 2001–2005: ~0.8–0.95 million bpd
  • 2006–2010: ~0.65–0.75 million bpd
  • 2011–2015: ~0.53–0.60 million bpd
  • 2016–2020: ~0.49–0.52 million bpd
  • 2021–2025: ~0.46–0.47 million bpd
  • Lowest annual average (2025): ~0.463 million bpd [thefulcrum.us]
mleskovarsocalrrcom
June 16, 2026 6:39 am

The plan to cripple Capitalism is strong in California. Bottoms up, top down, and not a shot is fired.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
June 16, 2026 7:34 am

But the elites and celebrities will go unaffected until the torches and pitchforks appear at their locked estate gates.

MarkW
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
June 16, 2026 9:06 am

That’s why the left favors anti-gun laws. The hoi poloi won’t have any. Their personal guards on the other hand will continue to be armed.

For what it’s worth, anyone who thinks that banning guns will keep guns out of the hands of gangs, cartels and run of the mill criminals, is stupid enough to believe that this time socialism will work.

Bryan A
Reply to  MarkW
June 16, 2026 10:40 am

Making gun possession a crime only makes everyone criminals and only criminals will have guns.

Ex-KaliforniaKook
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
June 16, 2026 12:43 pm

Maybe if private aircraft and charters, as well as limos, are banned, they will be the pinch then the Kalifornia elite will fill the pinch.

Kalifornia blames high gas prices on Trump, with Gruesome leading the parade. Strange how they were so high before this term, yet it wasn’t the fault of the Socialist Party that was in office!

Sparta Nova 4
June 16, 2026 7:36 am

It has been said too many times to count that this whole this is we need to destroy the planet to save it.

I submit we have the opportunity for a test case to see if that is plausible and/or practical.
Destroy California to save it. Go for it. See what happens. Maybe we can learn something about REALITY.

And if Hanoi Jane is eliminated as collateral damage, so much the better.

MarkW
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
June 16, 2026 9:07 am

New York and Washington are both racing with CA to see which one can destroy themselves first.

Reply to  MarkW
June 16, 2026 4:05 pm

With Oregon right behind. There must be something in the ocean waters that affects cognitive abilities. It is truly the East and West Coasts that lead the lemmings.

Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
June 17, 2026 5:41 pm

You have a long memory Sparta

starzmom
June 16, 2026 7:37 am

It would be a major blow to California if the DOD (or DOW) curtailed defense activities at California bases due to lack of fuel. Many could be relocated to nearby out of state bases or to ships offshore. Yes, it would be inconvenient, but not nearly as inconvenient as not having fuel.

Reply to  starzmom
June 16, 2026 11:46 am

It was initially estimated that closing Marine Corps Air Station Tustin, a helicopter base (with two blimp airdocks), and relocating the troops and families, their equipment, and all other material, would cost about $3 billion. That was in the early 1980’s. The DoD did close MCAS Tustin, along with many other bases, under the BRAC program, to save money.

June 16, 2026 7:43 am

In a market economy, refineries close only when they become unprofitable to maintain and operate versus outsourcing their production. It would be useful to inform the public which specific components of CA’s regulatory regime, e.g., labor, inventory holding, reporting requirements, transportation, CO2, PM2.5….all of the above, are driving the closures.

GeorgeInSanDiego
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 16, 2026 7:58 am

The “public” would not be persuaded, as the majority of them here in California are the fellow travelers and useful idiots of the Democratic Party.

Reply to  GeorgeInSanDiego
June 16, 2026 8:16 am

Fair enough. What I really meant to ask was for the authors to inform us…

Reply to  Frank from NoVA
June 17, 2026 2:40 pm

All of the above comes to mind.

June 16, 2026 8:31 am

California should stop all flights into the state that use aviation fuel and stop IC vehicles at the borders. Create a people’s utopia. Of course, they will also need to require exit visas to leave the state lest people be swayed by lies and propaganda about life in other, less optimal states.

June 16, 2026 8:38 am

IF California is hit with a jet fuel shortage, it will be just another reminder of how foolish the state has been. Didn’t build new water storage capacity despite large increase in population. Wasted water on the likely extinct delta smelt. Tried to mandate electrified heavy trucking at its container ports. Drove Tesla to Nevada and Texas. Burned down the Pacific Palisades.

Even the likes of CNN’s Fareed Zachariah are now saying one party rule has created a California disaster.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
June 16, 2026 10:55 am

One party rule always has the same result and benevolence is not one of them. Remember, people who want to reduce your standard of living are not your friends.

MarkW
June 16, 2026 9:02 am

The left wants the west’s economy to collapse.
It’s the fastest way for them to implement international communism.

Harry Durham
June 16, 2026 10:12 am

“Governor Newsom CANNOT explain WHERE the transportation fuels will come from…”

Not a problem for Gavin. He BRAGS about all the “progress” California has made under his tutelage. The legacy misleadia fully support and positively report on his ‘achievements.’

And he has no reason to worry. He’s term-limited out of the Governor’s mansion, and the vast majority of his state- and nation-wide constituency fully agree with his idiocy. He’s hoping there’s enough like-minded (term used very loosely) idiots to buy his bull the way Californians did. If you doubt that, examine recent election results. I know of no real method for determining how many illegals voted or how many ‘mail in’ ballots were manufactured after the Dems knew how many were needed to push Raman Noodle into second place in LA, and how much ground Hilton lost after the week of ballot stuffing the Dems conducted.

Further evidence: There is another gas tax increase coming in July: the excise tax will go from $0.612/gal to $0.624/gal. In addition, and what sometimes surprises visitors in the add-on 2.25% sales tax that is charged AFTER the excise tax is added, so you get to pay tax on a tax in California! Apparently, the one-party state believes they don’t pay enough to cover another $24B for lobbyists and NGOs – oops, sorry, “homeless improvement,” or to put up the additional $90B to fund the next 10 years of rail-less railroad.

Harry Durham
Reply to  Harry Durham
June 16, 2026 11:00 am

Sorry for the error: the new tax will be $0.634, not $0.624

Reply to  Harry Durham
June 16, 2026 8:57 pm

I love the term “misleadia”

Rational Keith
June 16, 2026 10:16 am

I understand that refineries in Alberta have been exporting diesel and jet fuel from the TMPX ship terminal in Burnaby BC, during the present Strait of Hormuz blockage. The refineries have shifted their production to a higher proportion of those heavy fuels.

There may be a bit of knock-on effect from northern California on pricing of fuels in the PNW of the US thus SW Canada, as refineries in northwest WA supply the fuels used in WA and in Portland OR, via pipeline. I don’t know feasibility of adding a pipeline from Portland to northern CA and expanding capacity as needed, I am wary of depending on a single pipeline.

Meanwhile Communist China is getting crude oil from Burnaby, it had been going to the US until Bully Trump added tariffs.

Bryan A
June 16, 2026 10:37 am

A simple solution would be to immediately close ALL Airports in California and make them have to travel out of state to fly anyplace else. Zero Flights to or from California!

Harry Durham
Reply to  Bryan A
June 16, 2026 10:57 am

And make sure that all cars and buses that make the trip are EVs, or at least hybrids!

Reply to  Harry Durham
June 17, 2026 2:45 pm

Yeah and just like the idiots driving to the ski resorts in their Teslas, they can stop for a recharge at a DIESEL GENERATOR charging station. 😅🤣😂😆

Reply to  Bryan A
June 16, 2026 11:00 am

If there is no jet fuel available, closing airports wont be a solution, it will be a result.

Of course, walking into California is now popular and expected, so walking out of California should be just as easy.

George Thompson
Reply to  doonman
June 16, 2026 12:35 pm

Too funny!

Reply to  doonman
June 16, 2026 4:12 pm

The alternative is building Conestoga Wagons and reverse the original migration. This time there would be roads and bridges to use.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
June 16, 2026 9:02 pm

The modern version is called U=Haul and Newscum is their best saleman.

Bob
June 16, 2026 2:21 pm

All California refineries should be taken out of the control of California. Bids should be open to all private refiners to take control of the refineries and produce products to federal standards. California has no say, no tax, no fee and no regulation. California should also be last in line for the refined products, they have shown us they aren’t interested in them. Let’s take them at their word.