The UK Met Office “Winter Forecast” – fail or faux?

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/met_office_forecast_computer-520.jpg?w=334&h=260&h=334

Have a look at these two juxtaposed news clips from the UK Daily Mail, one from October 28th, 2010, the other from November 28th, 2010.

click for news article

and here’s today’s news:

click for news article

Now have a look at what the Met Office issued on 10-28-2010:

click for original article

That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.

A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.

Anybody know where to find it?

In other news, new records have been set.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101128.html

Big chill breaks November temperature records

28 November 2010

Snowy road

Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country.  Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea.

Scotland recorded minimum temperature of -15.3 °C at Loch Glascarnoch, whilst England recorded -13.5 °C at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire.

The UK’s lowest ever recorded temperature in November was – 23.3 °C recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands, on November 14, 1919.

The cold and snow is expected to continue to affect many parts of the UK today and through the coming week. Met Office forecasters are warning of further severe frosts, snow and icy conditions. The north-easterly winds, with a significant wind chill will also make it feel bitterly cold as daytime temperatures struggle to rise above freezing.

Met Office warnings and advisories of severe weather for snow and icy roads are in force for parts of northern and eastern England, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further snowfall is expected through Scotland and the north east on Sunday.

Met Office Chief Forecaster, Steve Willington said: “The very low overnight temperatures we have seen are likely to be repeated through the coming week as the cold and snowy weather continues. As winds increase into next week, it will feel increasingly cold with a significant wind chill to contend with by day and night.”

“Icy roads and snow will be a risk for many, and the public are advised to stay up to date with the forecast to make sure they have the latest information.”

About these ads
This entry was posted in Forecasting. Bookmark the permalink.

206 Responses to The UK Met Office “Winter Forecast” – fail or faux?

  1. Richard Sharpe says:

    Well, it’s all Globull Warming’s fault, isn’t it. See, Globull Warming caused snow storms and freezing temperatures. Simple, really. Actually, it’s really the fault of CO2. Shut down those coal-fired power stations and you will get warm winters. Simple, really.

  2. Layne Blanchard says:

    Ahhhhh, the bitter chill of defeat. Couldn’t come at a better time. Let me see, it still isn’t WINTER yet, is it?

  3. TinyCO2 says:

    I suspect the monthly forecast refers to this

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

    It’s updated at least daily, probably twice, so there’s no record (unless somebody saves it) of what predictions they made a month ago.

  4. Kev-in-UK says:

    yep – they finally admit defeat! LOL

    however, I remember this press release where, surprise surprise, they are singing their own praises!
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100114.html
    I can think of a few choice expletives to describe my contempt and level of respect for these comedians – but I’ll leave that to WUWT readers imagination….

  5. DirkH says:

    The poor Met office boys and girls must be all confused… why do they *never* get it right? Kids – when the weather always does the opposite of what your saying, just invert your forecast and you’ll be right every time… OTOH, this might confuse the British public, as they are already used to doing the opposite of what the Met Office recommends.

  6. cpcorruption says:

    Are you suggesting that the Met Office cannot accurately forecast the weather?

    Well I never!

  7. Ian Mc Vindicated says:

    Heat spell…..global warming
    Cold spell…global warming
    Drought….global warming
    Flood ….global warming
    heavy rain….global warming
    normal weather…….global warming
    I give up….to me it is all just weather and climate..or in Canada , we call them seasons…this is getting pathetic.
    I am ready to give up and say and do nothing….but Iwon’t…..these lies have to stop.
    Ian

  8. Kev-in-UK says:

    and just so some of non-UK folk can see the **** we have to put up with – this is from the BBC earlier this year
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm

  9. Dr T G Watkins says:

    In Wales, the relatively warm and wet western part of the UK, we are not used to these very cold temps. Grid-lock around Cardiff on Friday night.
    As so often happens in really cold weather here, we have barely a breath of wind and a wind- farm visible from my home shows no activity for three days.The spirit of Cervantes lives on.
    Please o please can a politician or ‘researcher’ read or research the abundant literature dealing with the real drivers of climate and reverse the suicidal energy policies advocated by the Huhnians ( sounds Swiftian – Gulliver’s Travels ) and other scientifically ignorant members of our Coalition.

  10. Verity Jones says:

    Well we’re certainly having some fun in the snow. Actully it is not just in UK that there is controversy over the forecast of a mild winter. Having looked at the Scandinavian press there are several different opinons there too: http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/11/27/snow-in-uk-scandinavia-freezes-but-mild-winter-is-forecast/

    Not only that but the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), funded by 33 countries, is located just outside London. The UK contribution is 16% of the £37M for 2010. That is where the ensemble models for the Norwegian forecast originated. There should be no shortage of forecasting power in Britain.

  11. Stephen Brown says:

    I don’t have to be told how wrong the MET is, I’m living in the coldest weather it has ever been in my part of the south coast of England, supposedly immune to the harsher weather experienced further north.
    It’s now 22:00 BWT (British Winter Time) and the snow outside has developed an icy cap, making walking difficult, and I’m not going to go out to try and read the thermometer at the end of my garden!
    Fortunately I read Piers Corbyn’s forecasts and I have prepared.
    http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No33.pdf
    Unfortunately I cannot afford to pay the newly-imposed increases in my energy bills, both electricity and gas, which have been Government-mandated in order to pay for all of the windmills that Huhne thinks will provide me with electricity.
    I’ve spent three months amassing a huge pile of (free!) logs, now all split and cut to size. The fireplace in the lounge has never been so inviting!
    I’m paying for the electricity but the gas-fired central heating is off right now. We’re re-learning how to go to bed in cold bedrooms with hot-water bottles filled from kettles boiled over the hob I installed in the lounge fireplace last year. The oven which came with the hob makes the world’s best stews when they’ve simmered for 18 hours!
    On a more serious note, we are now preparing, at some expense, for similar or more extreme winters in the following years.

  12. stephen richards says:

    Its’ next week that the worst may arrive. I have seen forecast of 30 mph winds with 0°c at max temp. That would be a massive wind chill for Nov and the worst in my lifetime of 60 years. That’s my memorable lifetime. 1962/3 the nov-Dec period was exceptionally cold with strong winds and 1°C max for a week which was followed bya blizzard in London on Boxing day 26 dec. Never have I seen 0°C with 30mph. Nov-Dec 1962 also produced fog. Thick freezing fog. So bad that, as the apprentice, I had to walk back to the depot in front of the lorry. Max temp was -1°C but no wind of course.

  13. Robinson says:

    Whilst we’re busy criticising the Met Office, the graphics they provide to the BBC (and others), showing the UK as essentially a brown desert, is just a further subtle bit of propaganda. Whenever I’ve flown over the UK in an aircraft, it’s always looked very, very green.

  14. stephen richards says:

    Monthly forecast is updated every Monday.

  15. Tony Leatham says:

    I seem to remember EXACTLY the same sequence of events last Winter – Met Office said “warm winter coming” and we got the coldest winter for 30 years.

    But wait, I’m forgetting, the same Met Office also believe that 2010 was the warmest year ever……..

  16. stephen richards says:

    Don’t crow too much, Joe B is forecasting an overall above average temp winter and has some pretty good reasons for so doing.

  17. Kev-in-UK says:

    TinyCO2 says:
    November 28, 2010 at 1:46 pm
    well, they did suggest a mild winter (again) according to this article from October – but it could be journalistic enhancement too!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

  18. Henry chance says:

    Before last Christmas, Joe Bastardi said a huge blizzard is on the way. The Met office said not so. After the cold and snow had arrived, the Met Office updated their forcast. They are a waste of time and money.

  19. H.R. says:

    Ah, the poor Brits. All that money and nothing to show for it. Is that the only game in town, and they gave up?

    I’m pretty satisfied with the weather forecasting for my neck of the woods – Midwestern U.S.

    Weather forecasting is a competitive business around here because good weather forecasting brings eyeballs to a TV station and listeners to a radio station. Many people select their favorite stations based on their perception of the quality of weather forecasting.

    I’d like to see some comments from the Brits as to what they use for an alternative source to the Met Office forecasts. I’d be curious if people elsewhere around the globe are satisfied with their source of weather forecasts.

  20. Anything is possible says:

    A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, prettt lame. But there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.

    The Met Office do a 16-30 day outlook, which can be found on their main UK weather page here :

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    Looks like a monthly outlook in all but name to me.

    On a broader note, when I was growing up, the Met Office had a deserved reputation as being at the forefront of worldwide weather prediction, but in between their failure to properly forecast the great storm of October 1987, and embracing the more extreme end of AGW predictions, they have almost become a laughing stock.

    Pretty sad, really.

  21. Troels Halken says:

    DMI forecasts a winter 0,8 above the 30 year running normal for Denmark.

    http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/akt_saesonprognose

    Troels

  22. David, UK says:

    A sadly misguided and zealous Green friend of mine told me the other day that the cold is due to the slowing down of the Gulf stream, due to Global Warming Climate Change Global Climate Disruption (ok, that was cheap, but they make it too easy – to be fair she actually just called it “climate change”). When I pointed out how convenient it is that one can have it both ways – i.e. if it gets hotter it’s proof of AGW, if it gets colder it’s proof of – err – AGW – she glazed over. It was then that I diplomatically changed the subject.

    Familiar scenario, people?

  23. Juraj V. says:

    In our news, “climate scientist” Mark New from Oxford University predicts 4C warming. MetOffice says it will happen until 2050.

    In those good old times of Huckleberry Finn, those charlatans would be tarred and feathered.

  24. jorgekafkazar says:

    Warmist-based weather forecasting reminds me of the guy who continues to double his bet at roulette, figuring Red has to come up sooner or later and he’ll recoup his losses. At least the roulette nutter is betting his own money.

  25. docattheautopsy says:

    Given that the Met office has meant to predict things correctly, and how they meant to really temper their Global Warming outlook, and how they meant to not inject politics into forecasting, I hereby suggest they change their name to…

    The Meant Office.

  26. maz2 says:

    Clive Crook(sic) has the answer to …. something.

    …-

    “Stop talking and start taxing carbon

    By Clive Crook”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43d235dc-fb23-11df-b576-00144feab49a.html

    (That’s all one can put up, says FT: “Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.”)

  27. the_Butcher says:

    CO2 should be blamed for Met’s Office inaccuracy …

  28. Al Gored says:

    On the BBC website homepage, on their London weather forecast, they used to say “in Association with the MET.”

    Yesterday, visiting there for the first time in a long time, I noticed that it only read “In Association With.”

    Today it doesn’t even say that. So when even the UK’s Pravda is backing away from these clowns, you know that things are “worse than we thought.”

    Amazing how far down the tubes the UK has fallen…

  29. Lee Kington says:

    RE: That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.

    At the Met site I did some digging. They have “Weather Call” which will send forecasts to a cell phone, PDA, etc. The PDF on “Public Services” indicated an up to 30 day forecast as “Further Forecast”. A search of the site did not provide a location for such.

    Looking at their regular UK forecast page:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    in the lower right there is a frame: Weather forecast: UK
    It contains tabs for 1-2 days , 3 -5 days , 6 – 15 days, and 16 – 30 days.

    Content of 6 – 15 is:

    UK Outlook for Friday 3 Dec 2010 to Sunday 12 Dec 2010:

    Remaing very cold with further snow showers or longer spells of snow likely almost anywhere across the UK during the period. Eastern and southeastern parts are most at risk at first, but a brief settled period is likely over the first weekend, but still cold with widespread overnight frosts, some freezing fog and cold temperatures inland. Most inland areas should remain dry with some cold winter sunshine by day. Into the new week, it will remain very cold for many with further snow showers likely around some coastal areas, and widespread overnight frosts. There is also a chance that more persistent rain, sleet and snow may spread into the southern half of the UK for a time, consequently becoming slightly less cold here.

    Updated: 1306 on Sun 28 Nov 2010

    Content of 16 – 30 is:

    UK Outlook for Monday 13 Dec 2010 to Monday 27 Dec 2010:

    The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, with a risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. However, some western and southern parts may be less cold at the start of the period in particular, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

    Updated: 1157 on Sun 28 Nov 2010

  30. Engchamp says:

    Having just driven back from France, with no mishaps, where there was just as much freezing weather, including snow, my reaction to the UK met office is blunt.
    Please do not preach to us.
    You sit in your ivory towers with your super-expensive computers, and, year by year, your forecast of the UK climate is always wrong, and is getting worse.
    I, for one, see no point in continuing to finance you if you persist in providing weather data based on a teenager’s application of the interweb, for your reliance on so-called ‘climate forecast computers’ has come to zero.
    Unfortunately, I am forced to pay various taxes of which a pittance comes to you.

  31. OzCynic says:

    The article says that the “prediction” is on the Met at:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/winter.html

    Bye the Way, thanks for the website. I am HEARTILY sick of the Anthropogenic Global Warmists who have predicted every disaster known to the human race – and then come up with this or that excuse when Nature shows they made a colossal mistake. Keep up the good work.

  32. keith at hastings uk says:

    According to Vicky Pope of the Met Office, reported in eg UK Daily Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8159991/Global-warming-has-slowed-because-of-pollution.html) , the warming by CO2 is still racing ahead but has been slowed/masked by dastardly cooling from aerosol pollution emitted by Asian economies. Warming trend (they love linear don’t they) over the last decade in a range
    2010 is still set to be 2nd warmest she says, once they have corrected recent under recording of sea temps. And the warmest decade, so there!
    Globullwarming is still alive and kicking. ( Freezing here in east Sussex, with some snow, that our houses aren’t really built for…)

  33. Well, the Norwegian equivalent of the UK Met Office, met.no has not stopped issuing seasonal forecasts although the track record is much like in the UK.

    For the period December 2010 – February 2011, met.no predicts an impressive 2.5C above normal (1960-1990) for my area. This is a bold prediction since the 20 day average is currently something like 3C below normal.

    The seasonal outlook for Norway for the period December 2010 – February 2011 is temperature above the normal for the whole country. The greatest deviation from the normal is 2.5 °C above and this is located to the inner part of Southern Norway. For most of the coastal areas the seasonal outlook is 1.5-2 °C above the normal. For the rest of the country it is ca. 2 °C above the normal. The normal period 1961-1990 is used here.

    But then again, it isn’t too surprising, considering who makes these predictions for met.no. It is well known to be Rasmus Benestad of RealClimate fame.

  34. H.R., the Weather Channel provides UK weather at uk.weather.com, but frankly it’s no better than the Met Office at weather prediction. In fairness, the dynamics in play in the atmosphere are rather complex in the North-West corner of Europe, particularly over the UK and Ireland, and even accurate short-term prediction is exceedingly difficult.

    Spend a few weeks checking out http://www.sat24.com. The weather systems here are sometimes mind-boggling.

  35. Global Warming is one huge tangle of contradictions,
    Climatic temperatures rise and fall all the time everywhere, I haven’t seen any evidence of temperatures spiraling out of control one way or the other, globally or locally and this is the basis of all the “global warming” arguments,

    It’s about time these protagonists in the media wind their necks in and hold their hands up when they get it wrong!

    Eat some humble pie!! :)

  36. Leon Brozyna says:

    Met Office forecast for this winter can be safely ignored. In fact, their forecast for any season/month can be safely ignored.

    And for short-term forecasts, look out the window.

  37. keith at hastings uk says:

    oops, meant to add the reported trend figure of 0.05 C to my comment. Sorry. Was top end of the range quoted, I’ve mislaid the lower figure, think it was 0.013 C

  38. matt v. says:

    The most frequently occurring average winter temperature for UK -CET during La Nina winters has been in the range of 5 to 6 degrees C[ occured 7 times ]. The mathematical average of all La Nina winters is about 4.3 C [4.7 C if looking at last 7 La Nina winters only] .The average of all winter temperatures for the last 61 years was about 4.25 C. So 2011 winter could be warmer than last winter’s 2.43 C and could even be 4- 5 C if the history of the past La Nina winters is any guide . If this were to happen ,this would represent about a couple of degrees warmer than last winter’s 2.43 C . Perhaps this where the Met Office may be coming from .

  39. Jimbo says:

    FLASHBACK

    INDEPENDENT (UK) – 20 March 2000
    According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”….”Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

    ————————————–
    UK winter snow since 2007

    Evening Standard – 8 February 2007
    “Airports close as snow brings travel chaos to Britain”

    UPI – 2 December 2008
    “Early snow blanketed much of Britain Tuesday,…”

    Guardian – 2 February 2009
    “Transport hit as UK wakes to heaviest snow in decades

    BBC – 7 January 2010
    “Frozen Britain seen from above”

    Reuters – 13 January 2010
    “Britain, shivering through its coldest winter in three decades…”

    BBC – 25 November 2010
    “The earliest widespread snowfall for 17 years has gripped many parts of the UK.”

    More to come?

    WeatherAction forecast – 24 Nov 2010
    · USA Extreme snow / thunder / tornado deluges 26-30th
    “VERY COLD WEATHER will continue in Britain & most of Ireland through the first Week of December”, said Piers

    —————
    And the realisation from the Independent 10 years on.
    “Earliest white winter for two decades could go on for 10 days”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/earliest-white-winter-for-two-decades-could-go-on-for-10-days-2144998.html

  40. Jimbo says:

    Met Office Seasonal Failures

    25 September 2008
    The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080925.html

    25 Feb 2009
    Coldest winter for a decade – Met Office
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090225.html

    —–

    30 April 2009
    The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090430.html

    Met Office cools summer forecast
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8173533.stm

    —-

    2009
    Met office forecast a mild to average winter
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html

    Met Office – 5 January 2010
    “The current cold weather started in mid December and it has been the most prolonged spell of freezing conditions across the UK since December 1981.”
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100105.html

    “Britain’s freezing weather: worst snow for 50 years”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6939124/Britains-freezing-weather-worst-snow-for-50-years-paralyses-transport-networks.html

  41. DirkH says:

    Rather nice animation by the BBC about the jetstream. Believe it or not, no reference to climate change.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11851728

  42. Warren in Minnesota says:

    Awww…. -10C equals 14F. But 40cm of snow equals about 15-16 inches which is significant in Minnesota. That much snow can slow traffic until plowed & salted (if there are plows & salt), and is good for skiing.

  43. R. de Haan says:

    If the Met Office would have been a private company they would have:
    A. gone bankrupt
    B. made excellent weather forecasts

    Unfortunately Met Office is a Government organization that has been ordered to support the party line of the Global Agenda.

    That’s why their management is rewarded with exorbitant bonus payments for what really is a bad performance. In other words a reward for selling their soul and their scientific integrity.

    Just like the BBC, CNN, NOAA, NASA/GISS, KNMI, DEUTSCHE WETTERDIENST….
    Well, we all know the list.

    The worst part is that we are still denying there is a conspiracy going on here.

  44. View from the Solent says:

    H.R. says:
    November 28, 2010 at 2:09 pm
    I’d like to see some comments from the Brits as to what they use for an alternative source to the Met Office forecasts.
    ————————————————————————–

    I use Joe Bastardi. Who forecast the current cold, followed by a non-cold winter in UK.

  45. P Walker says:

    stephen richards – I haven’t seen Joe Bastardi’s prediction for Europe , but the only parts of NA that he predicts warmer than average temps for is the southern third or so . He calls for below average temps and above average snowfall from the NW all the way to N England . Things look look shakey for the Ohio valley as well . I’m assuming that the weather will be cold and snowy for Canada to boot .

  46. Baa Humbug says:

    Am I correct in recalling the Met Office boss receiving some millions in bonuses earlier this year?

    Our poor poor cousins in the formerly Great Britain. But don’t worry, us Aussies will catch up to you soon, afterall, our PM is a Welsh woman.

  47. clearscience says:

    I find this forecast a little surprising myself with the strong Arctic Oscillation…

  48. TerryS says:

    The Met office admitted defeat a while ago. From this BBC story

    The Met Office has now admitted to BBC News that its annual global mean forecast predicted temperatures higher than actual temperatures for nine years out of the last 10.

    This “warming bias” is very small – just 0.05C. And the Met Office points out that the variance between the forecast and the actual temperature is within its own stated margins of error

    By my calculations 0.05C per year amounts to 5C per 100 years. Their testimony before the House of Commons claimed that they use the same code for their climate models as for their forecasts so that means that all their 100 year climate model forecasts should be reduced by 5C.

  49. Peter H says:

    November is in the Autumn.

    Winter starts on Dec 1st ends on February 28th (as does a winter forecast).

    So, it makes no sense for the gallery here to start crowing about a failed winter forecast on today, November the 28th.

    [Note: That applies to the Northern Hemisphere. ~dbs, mod.]

  50. Jimbo says:

    Anthony,
    I lived in the UK for many years and I can tell you that the Met Office WEATHER forecasts were an ongoing joke. Why they move onto failed SEASONAL forecasts of mild winters and BBQ summers is beyond me. The fact that they have abandoned it speaks volumes about their real confidence in AGW.

  51. Joe Horner says:

    November 28, 2010 at 1:56 pm

    and just so some of non-UK folk can see the **** we have to put up with – this is from the BBC earlier this year
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm

    But that article explains it all, Kev:

    But Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University, said the warming bias in the annual prediction was a red herring.

    “All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”

    You see, it’s a warmer than average winter and my observation of snow lying on warm, wet, Anglesey in November is wrong. Off to spark up the barby now……

  52. beesaman says:

    I hope we have a warmer January and February, I have a whole bunch of driving to do around then!
    But then another bit of me would like to see a really cold Winter right through, just to make some folk look again at the science.

  53. artwest says:

    I remember before they gave up the seasonal forecasts, but after a string of blunders, there was some poor sod put up by the Met Office as cannon fodder on a news programme. Their best defence for offering forecasts, which they admitted weren’t likely to be accurate, was that it would help local authorities in planning to deal with weather conditions.
    So, as long as it just meant that councils would just throw all their available money away on an eventuality which had no better chance of happening than a coin toss, that was apparently worthwhile!

  54. WAM says:

    Guys,
    Why are you so excited?
    It is still autumn, isn’t it? :)

  55. Kaboom says:

    Well, in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia, I for one am eagerly awaiting the onset of summer in two days time.

    Spring (1 September – 30 November) has been hideously cold, I have been unable to swim in my pool, and still pull up the doona at 4:00 a.m. Damn this Global Cooling!

    See:

  56. ZT says:

    A recent depiction of the MET office prediction supremo in the company of UEA and RS notables.

  57. Geoff Sharp says:

    Joe B is thinking the UK winter may not be as brutal as central Europe and Russia. But is Joe factoring in the very neg NOA along with the jet stream changes that will push cold air over the entire NH?

    I think this is all related to low EUV production from a quite Sun along with other long term solar derived oscillations. My predicted massive winter for the whole NH is still on track.

    NAO graph HERE.

    Jet stream animation HERE.

  58. RichieP says:

    H.R. says:
    November 28, 2010 at 2:09 pm
    ‘I’d like to see some comments from the Brits as to what they use for an alternative source to the Met Office forecasts. I’d be curious if people elsewhere around the globe are satisfied with their source of weather forecasts.’

    Accuweather in the form of Joe Bastardi. He’s convincing, honest, thorough and remarkably accurate and a lot more personable and humorous than anything inside the Met. So I’m expecting that we’ll have a chilly early winter (which is the case now) and a warmer end. I certainly hope he’s right this year again and that we aren’t frozen until March. The energy companies have already put up their fuel rates in advance of this winter (last week) and it’s going to be very expensive to stay warm.

  59. Al Gored says:

    Engchamp says:
    November 28, 2010 at 2:34 pm

    “my reaction to the UK met office is blunt. Please do not preach to us.”

    Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t this organization also responsible for the call to shut down UK airspace during the Iceland volvanic eruption?

  60. DirkH says:

    http://www.donnerwetter.de – private service – says: cold Winter in Germany, right into February.
    http://www.donnerwetter.de/news/langfrist.mv?action=show&id=14648

    Don’t know about their track record, though… for short term forecasts, i use the automated stations of meteomedia:
    http://wetterstationen.meteomedia.de/messnetz/eu_d.html

  61. Tom in Florida says:

    Fool us once, shame on you
    Fool us twice, shame on us
    Fool us three, four or five times ………. not.

  62. Bob Tisdale says:

    David, UK says: “A sadly misguided and zealous Green friend of mine told me the other day that the cold is due to the slowing down of the Gulf stream…”

    And recently I was told that the Gulf oil spill would result in a slowing of the Gulf Stream and cause a cool winter for Europe.

  63. Idiotic message of confusion in the middle of the current Met Office home page

    Big chill breaks November temperature records | 28 Nov 2010
    Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country.

    Scientific evidence is Met Office focus at Cancun | 26 Nov 2010
    Long and short term trends in climate reveal the evidence for man-made warming has grown stronger.

    Long and short term. Who’d a thought it?

  64. ImranCan says:

    It is kind of funny …. having so obviously been wrong so many times in a row, they attempted to abandon ‘long range weather forecasting’ …. but some how still manage to come out with “we don’t do forecasting, but trust us, its getting warmer”. And guess what … wrong again.

    They are a joke.

  65. Spring hasn’t even started here in South Australia and it’s only two days until Summer. I’m sitting hear fully rugged up as teh November temperature is a whopping 8 degrees below last years. Last year we had a heat wave of 40 degree plus days. This month we’ve only had two days above 30. It’s almost mid-day here and it’s not 16 degrees celsius yet. Oh but of couse the trapped heat is stored somewhere! ….

  66. Brian H says:

    Stephen;
    Regardless of heating source, there’s a ‘trick’ you can use to cut your costs by about 40%. Get a small fan or two, and set in a corner of your largest room(s). If designed for vertical operation, point up; otherwise, use a deflector to send the air up the corner join of the walls.

    The mixing of cool floor air with heated ceiling air will quickly make the room more comfortable, and means you won’t have to fill the room with warm air from the top down. A serious saving, believe me.

    The “built-in” version I say in an architectural magazine was a hollow column in the corner with a small internal fan (directed up or down; doesn’t matter).

    Works in the summer if you use A/C, too. Same principle. Same savings.

  67. Brian H says:

    typo: “I saw in an …”

  68. CodeTech says:

    This is strong evidence that forecasts more than a few days out are impossible. Even taking into account known cycles like the PDO and AMO, known influences like El Nino and La Nina, Arctic Oscillations, the jet streams, volcanoes, etc. there is more than enough chaos in the atmosphere to completely ignore seasonal forecasts.

    That said, it makes more sense to watch how animals are preparing for winter.

    All the forecasting computer power in the world is useless until more is understood about more of the factors in play. Forecasters really ought to ignore CO2 levels and go with realistic starting conditions… ie. observation.

  69. CodeTech says:

    And since I missed my last paragraph:

    Forecasts 20, 50, 100 years out are laughable. It is mind boggling that any sane individual could actually think we understand enough to do so.

  70. The Met is usually wrong. Anyone for a barbecue?

  71. old44 says:

    It may pay someone to compare the accuracy of the current (33 million pound computer) predictions with predictions made during WW2 for the RAF, probably made with pencil and paper.

  72. Jesse says:

    Kevin in the UK – From your link

    “Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office said a re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming – making the Met Office forecast even more accurate than it appears.”

    “…re-analysis of weather science might even show that the actual temperature measurements have under-recorded recent warming…” Does that mean they could make adjustments to make the Met Office right and everything observed was wrong? Amazing!!!

  73. HBCRod says:

    Baa Humbug says:
    November 28, 2010 at 3:07 pm

    Am I correct in recalling the Met Office boss receiving some millions in bonuses earlier this year?

    I don’t know about bonuses but they cost UK taxpayers about £200 million every year. If I did not produce, I’d lose my job!!!

  74. Ken Roberts says:

    I decided to quit making mental calculations so I printed a picture of a thermometer with both F&C and stuck it betweeen my monitor and CPU where I can see it at a glance.

    Because my European Geography sucks, I printed a map of most of it along with the GB and taped it above my monitor; I feel so cosmopolitan now…

  75. twawki says:

    How low will the temps go this winter? Winter hasn’t even started yet time wise but its in full swing meteorologically. And with a cold sun and sea surface temps plummeting what about next year and the year after? It looks like the regime change to cold is setting in for at least a generation or two.

  76. MICK from downunder says:

    2010 shaping up to be hottest on record!Funny,everytime I watch the weather forecast, temperatures are quoted as below normal for the time of the year.Parts of Australia (WA) have recorded their lowest ever measured temperatures. As for rain, all bar WA has been deluged this year. Still the warmists refuse to admit that there are any holes in their dogma.

  77. Don’t you guys in England got that new fangled thing called…..let me see…. Democracy? Can you not write to or visit your local representatives to have a good laugh at this daft Government service and push for a parliamentary inquiry?

  78. TomRude says:

    A new paper pretends that winter 2009/2010 was “an example a cold extreme in a warming climate”.

    “GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L20704, 6 PP., 2010
    doi:10.1029/2010GL044613

    Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate

    Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate
    J. Cattiaux

    LSCE, UMR 8212, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    R. Vautard

    LSCE, UMR 8212, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    C. Cassou

    Cerfacs, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    P. Yiou

    LSCE, UMR 8212, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    V. Masson-Delmotte

    LSCE, UMR 8212, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    F. Codron

    LMD, IPSL, CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-ENS-UPMC, Paris, France

    The winter of 2009/2010 was characterized by record persistence of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which caused several severe cold spells over Northern and Western Europe. This somehow unusual winter with respect to the most recent ones arose concurrently with public debate on climate change, during and after the Copenhagen climate negotiations. We show however that the cold European temperature anomaly of winter 2010 was (i) not extreme relative to winters of the past six decades, and (ii) warmer than expected from its record-breaking seasonal circulation indices such as NAO or blocking frequency. Daily flow-analogues of winter 2010, taken in past winters, were associated with much colder temperatures. The winter 2010 thus provides a consistent picture of a regional cold event mitigated by long-term climate warming.”

    =====
    As winter 2010/2011 is already poking holes in this recent GRL circumstantial piece, here it is:

    Deconstructing Cattiaux et al. 2010

    The period December 2009–January 2010–February
    2010 (hereafter winter 2010) was punctuated by series of
    cold weather events and unusual snow accumulation in
    several Northern Hemisphere countries (see http://www.
    ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/). In Europe, three successive cold outbreaks
    and unusual persistence of snow cover were observed
    (see http://www.knmi.nl/cms/content/79165), which shaped
    the public perception of an exceptionally intense winter.
    Several states of Eastern United States also recorded their
    snowiest winter ever [Seager et al., 2010] while a few cities
    witnessed record‐breaking cold daily temperatures [Wang
    et al., 2010]. These weather events occurred during and
    after intense media activity covering international climate
    negotiations in Copenhagen, and raised up questioning about
    global warming. A global perspective nevertheless highlights
    that winter 2010 was marked by a mean warm anomaly
    at global scale, especially over Greenland, Canada, North‐
    Africa and Middle East (see http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
    maps/). Understanding and improving the predictability of
    such mid‐latitude cold spells is a key societal issue, since their
    fate in both frequency and intensity in a warming climate
    directly impacts sectors of energy demand, transport disruption
    and social emergency protection systems.

    The ultimate goal of this paper is stated in this remarkable introduction: under the guise of a scientific research, the only purpose is about changing “public perception”, the after “Copenhagen”, “questioning about global warming” i.e. re-establishing IPCC credibility in the eye of an ungrateful public. This is all about politics and science will serve. And let’s be no mistake, no more “climate change” this time as the authors simply dropped the mask: it is global warming.

    Let’s notice that the paper is already skewed on a scientific basis: 1) use of GISS Temp a database known for its bias (see McKitrick 2010) and 2) the use of expressions such “global scale” or “global perspective” to oppose areas of warmer temperatures to the described areas that experienced a cold winter, as if in winter weather was supposed to be cold everywhere. Already the meteorological foundation of the paper is shaky.

    Therefore this paper looks like a circumstantial piece that participates in the IPCC media offensive since Copenhagen. Let’s now see how they did it in this particular paper and examine the scientific background.

    This paper focuses on European cold temperatures of
    winter 2010. The European wintertime climate is mostly
    driven by atmospheric dynamics over the North‐Atlantic –
    European (NAE) area [Walker, 1924], characterized by a
    baroclinic instability of the westerly jet stream which generates
    planetary waves traveling from North‐Eastern America
    to the European continent [e.g., Charney, 1947].

    Let’s recognize that for these authors whose scientific reputation is at the very top of France’s establishment and best financed research laboratories (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2010, own April fools petition), it is pretty significant that in their views no new improvement in atmospheric dynamics and understanding seems to have occurred since 1924 and 1947! This is the famous “altitude controls everything” that was so blatantly disproved by the FASTEX experiment in 1997.

    The unstable nature of the jet also triggers quasi‐stationary circulation
    patterns of larger scale, often referred to as “weather
    regimes”, which can persist from a few days to a few weeks
    [Legras and Ghil, 1985; Reinhold and Pierrehumbert, 1982;
    Vautard, 1990]. (…) For instance the
    positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation
    (NAO) is generally associated with rather warm (cold)
    temperatures [e.g., Hurrell, 1995], while the persistence of a
    high‐pressure system over Northern Europe or the British
    Isles, often referred to as “European blocking” conditions,
    leads to cold and dry weather over Western Europe [e.g.,
    Yiou and Nogaj, 2004].

    These authors also refer to indices such as the NAO that are based on statistical relationships. These were useful tools back then, before the advent of satellites but these have been shown (cf. Leroux) to be simply obsolete because they do not reflect the synoptic reality of atmospheric circulation. Of course other more recent references follow all variations on the theme of the supposed control of weather by Jets dynamics.

    Our aim is to investigate which weather regimes were
    associated to the cold winter 2010, and their interplay with
    the temperature anomaly. In particular we use the “flowanalogues”
    approach developed by Yiou et al. [2007] to
    analyze this temperature anomaly based on past relationships
    between atmospheric circulation and temperatures.

    The stage is now set for the magic to happen: an analysis of altitude patterns leading to comparing surface temperatures.
    The beauty of this magic is that meteorology i.e. what’s happening in the lower layers of the troposphere and its complexity, the critical 1500m for polar cold air advections as demonstrated by Leroux is simply evacuated, flushed down the drain, never to be discussed. Only statistical temperature series will remain but orphaned from their meteorological context.

    This is the “de-meteorologizing” condemned by so many geographers and climatologists and that prompted the IPCC to commit flagrant errors such as noticed by Prof. Martine Tabeaud about the melting Himalaya glaciers and the water resources of south east Asia.

    2. Data and Methods
    [5] The daily atmospheric dynamics is analyzed through
    re‐analyses of geopotential height at 500hPa (Z500) provided
    by National Centers for Environmental Prediction and
    National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP‐NCAR)
    [Kistler et al., 2001] over the period 1948–2010 (http://
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.
    html). Anomalies are computed by removing at each grid
    point the 1961–1990 daily climatology.
    [6] Several indices are used for the statistical analysis of
    winter 2010 seasonal dynamics: (i) the seasonal NAO index
    (NAOi) defined as the difference between Azores and Iceland
    normalized surface pressures [Jones et al., 1998;
    Osborn, 2006] (computed from monthly values downloaded
    from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/∼timo/datapages/naoi.htm), (…)

    At 500hPa most of lower layer dynamics is left behind.

    [7] Temperature data are from the European Climate
    Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project [Klein‐Tank
    et al., 2002], which provides daily minimum, maximum
    and mean temperatures (respectively Tmin, Tmax and Tavg)
    at European stations (http://eca.knmi.nl/dailydata/). The data
    set is geographically homogenized by selecting the stations
    on the basis of (i) the simultaneous availability of Tavg,
    Tmin and Tmax data, (ii) the availability of more than 80%
    of daily values between 1 January 1948 and 28 February
    2010, (iii) a selection of only one station per grid cell of
    0.75° × 0.5° size. This method is similar to that used in
    previous studies [Vautard and Yiou, 2009; Yiou et al., 2007],
    and retains here 230 stations over Europe. Anomalies are
    computed by removing at each station the 1961–1990 daily
    climatology, and in order to better quantify their amplitude,
    normalized anomalies relative to the mean and the standard
    deviation (s) of the 1949–2010 anomalies distribution are
    used.

    Clearly, these temperatures series are not replaced in their meteorological context. They become abstract values instead of reflecting the singularity of their sites. Average temperatures calculated from Tmax and Tmin fail to represent the meteorological reality: this is a critical point Leroux insisted upon, a point that makes temperatures anything but a robust dataset to deduce climatic facts as it is site dependent. Hence Leroux critical approach and reliance on surface pressure data.

    But it gets worse:

    The “flow‐analogues” method, used in section 5 to
    estimate daily temperatures observed during similar flow
    conditions in past winters, was developed by Yiou et al.
    [2007] and consists as follows: for each day of winter
    2010, ten flow‐analogues are selected among winters 1949
    to 2009 in a 30‐day window centered on this given day. The
    selection is made on the basis of maximizing the Spearman’s
    correlation of daily Z500 NAE maps. Then, for each
    station, the daily “analog” temperature anomaly is defined
    as the median of daily temperature anomalies of the ten
    flow‐analogue days. Using rather Euclidean distance or
    linear correlation for Z500 ranking, five or twenty flowanalogues,
    and the mean in analog temperature computation
    does not change our results in a significant manner.

    Here comes the miracle whip!
    Dynamical configurations during past winters at the altitude 500hPa level are attributed a median surface temperature over a 10 days period. The same particularly tailored data set – they eliminated 80% of the data to keep this one- used by Yiou and Vautard to announce that surface winds below 100m have diminished 5 to 15%… 60% of it at least they supposed a consequence of reforestation in Europe, leaving the wind variation within measuring uncertainties.

    The authors compare each 2009-2010 cold wave with the past particular altitude flow and its estimated surface temperature that mimics each wave, and calculate the temperature anomaly between the past and present events for each station!

    Elementary my dear Watson!

    The key here is the tele-connection between altitude and surface and through the use of it, the shunting of all lower layers and surface meteorological data with the exception of an ad-hoc calculated statistical temperature. When one considers that half of the atmosphere is contained below 500hPa, one can appreciate the amount of prestidigitation necessary to make the paper work!

    Some bibliography follows on NAO.

    (…) How Cold Was Winter 2010 in Europe?
    [12] Winter 2010 European temperatures were on average
    anomalously cold (Figure 3a), with largest negative
    anomalies (about −1.5s) over North‐Western Europe while
    milder conditions prevailed over Southern Europe. This
    seesaw latitudinal pattern is entirely consistent with the
    canonical signature of the negative NAO [Hurrell, 1995].
    More generally, Wang et al. [2010] showed that the winter
    2010 negative NAO was responsible for the quadripole
    structure in NAE temperature anomalies (warm over Canada/
    Greenland and North Africa/Middle East, cold over United
    States and Eurasia).

    And the authors try to explain the 2010 record persistence, and then attribute the cold temperatures to… the NAO. Ground breaking isn’t it?

    Averaged over all European stations the winter 2010
    anomaly of daily mean temperature is −1.3°C, corresponding
    to a departure of −0.9s from the 1949–2010 distribution
    (Figure 3d). As in previous studies [e.g., van Loon and
    Rogers, 1978], we find high correlations between European
    temperatures and both the phase and amplitude of the
    NAO (e.g., r = 0.70 for Tavg–NAOi and r = 0.75 for Tavg–
    NAO+ regime frequency, both p − values < 1%), and that
    most of cold peaks are associated with significantly low
    NAOi or NAO+ frequency (not shown). Note that the frequency
    of NAO− regime is less significantly anti‐correlated
    with temperatures (r = −0.56, p − value < 1%) since cold
    events can also be linked to Scandinavian blockings or
    Atlantic Ridge conditions (Figure 2).
    Winter 2010 ranks as the 13th coldest winter since
    1949 over Europe, far behind the cold record of 1963 (−4.0°
    C, −2.9s) despite comparable atmospheric dynamics indices.
    Winter 1963 indeed experienced the 3rd lowest NAOi
    since 1824 (Figure 1b), and the 2nd lowest NAO+ regime
    frequency (Figure 2e). However cold temperatures of winter
    1963 seem caused by both NAO− and strong Scandinavian
    blockings, while NAO− largely dominates in winter 2010.

    So here comes the birdie: the 2009-2010 winter ranks top colder quartile but is “far behind” 1963 despite comparable atmospheric dynamics indices…
    How about that? What does it say about those indices is really the first question one should ask? The answer of course lies in lower tropospheric conditions but since this is exactly the reason why these and their analysis was shunted, we’ll never know will we?!

    Then, of course, the discussion on “flow analogues” can proceed, unencumbered with annoying facts and meteorological complexities…

    Temperatures in Flow‐Analogues
    of Winter 2010
    [15] For 84% of stations (193/230) flow‐analogues sampled
    in past winters were associated with significantly colder
    daily mean temperature (Tavg) anomalies than observed in
    winter 2010 (Figures 3b and 3c). Only a few stations in
    Southern Europe exhibit a higher analog temperature than
    observed. The maximal departure is found over the Alps
    region, where observed temperatures were close to average
    while analog anomalies reach −2s. Averaged over all stations,
    past flow‐analogues of winter 2010 were associated
    with a negative temperature normalized anomaly reaching
    −2.1s, the 2nd coldest analog anomaly close behind winter
    1963 (−2.3s, see Figure 3d). (…)

    What is there to comment? Nothing! This is all post-magic discourse virtually equivalent to discussing the sex of angels. And conclusions become logical, “scientific”:

    Winter 2010 cold anomaly is stronger for maximal
    (daytime, −1.2s) than minimal (nighttime, −0.7s) temperatures,
    which even constitutes a negative record in terms
    of diurnal range (−2.2s of the Tmax‐Tmin distribution)
    within a longer‐term decreasing tendency (−0.37s/decade
    over 1980–2009, Figure 3f). This observed reduction of
    wintertime diurnal range is consistent with future climate
    projections that generally suggest a higher warming in
    minimal than maximal winter temperatures, due to the higher
    contribution of long‐wave than short‐wave net downward
    surface radiative flux for that season [Vose et al., 2005].
    Analog temperatures do not exhibit any significant tendency
    in recent diurnal ranges, and even exhibit a higher
    maximal than minimal temperature anomaly in winter 2010
    (Figure 3f). The record dirunal range of winter 2010 may be
    linked to the unusual snow cover highlighted by Seager
    et al. [2010], modifying albedo and daytime surface energy
    budget (not shown).

    And that was where the acrobatic pilots are supposed to land: validate a GHG radiation model! But of course!

    6. Conclusions
    [18] Our findings indicate that the cold – albeit not
    exceptional – temperature anomaly of winter 2010 was
    mostly caused by an extreme persistence of the negative
    phase of the NAO.

    Yes this was 1924 meteorology. Meanwhile is anywhere discussed WHY did this NAO dynamics happen? Nope! One can also smile at the constant reminder that it was not exceptionally cold; crudely put, do not trust your freezing butt ignorant populace since we tell you it was not that cold!

    However similar dynamics were generally
    associated with even colder temperatures in past winters, so
    that the winter 2010 mean temperature expected from the sole
    atmospheric circulation is comparable to the cold record of
    winter 1963.

    That’s the magic!

    Winter 2010 appears to be a remarkable event
    within a longer‐term tendency: observed temperature anomalies
    have been quasi‐systematically warmer than flowanalogues
    ones over the past two decades, which probably
    results from background climate warming [Yiou et al., 2007;
    Cattiaux et al., 2010]. The fact that the positive departure
    of observed temperatures from flow‐analogues is larger
    for minimal than for maximal temperatures is consistent
    with radiative consequences of increasing greenhouse gases
    concentrations.

    Circular reasoning: the methodology is all geared up to show precisely that!
    And of course, since this is the business of IPCC modeling, the demonstration had to be GHG compatible!

    [19] Thus winter 2010 can be considered as an example
    of a cold extreme superimposed on a warming climate.

    QED! It’s a physical impossibility! But…

    Since (i) climate projections suggest the European warming
    will continue in future decades, and (ii) the extreme
    dynamics of winter 2010 was one of the most favorable to
    cold weather since the 1820s, this winter could be one of the
    coldest of the 21st century.

    Let’s recognize that 1) IPCC models suggest Europe will be warming BUT 2) could not forecast why we ended up with such a cold winter dynamics which is supposedly as extreme as those of the 1820s, 3) barely 10 years in the century, the prediction comes, the 2009-2010 winter COULD be one of the coldest in the 21st century!!!

    When it’s cold, it’s not cold enough therefore Global warming is for real!
    The public perception was wrong! Next time you’re freezing call us, it’s warm here.
    The IPCC is right, the Copenhagen fiasco is forgotten and all this now just in time for Cancun! Thank you all!

    And since
    “This work was supported by the French ANR CHEDAR project”,

    Say “CHEESE” for the picture!

  79. Kev-in-UK says:

    View from the Solent says:
    November 28, 2010 at 3:04 pm

    actually I do both of the following:
    1) I look at the satellite images and observe the cloud patterns
    2) I look out of the window.
    curiously enough, I find this more than ample for a few days idea of ‘weather’!
    As a rule, I guess the short term forecasts are pretty ok – but I find it crazy why they even bother looking at longer term! and as for future warming, well…..

  80. blokeinfrance says:

    Here in France (where it’s snowing at 400m altitude as I type) I read last week the winter seasonal forecasts.
    FranceMeteo predicted one scenario. The guy in Chamonix (a specialist branch of FranceMeteo) predicted something entirely different.
    Then he let the cat out of the bag;
    “Well, it depends on your computer model” (by way of excuse, perhaps)

  81. AugustFalcon says:

    Peter H says:
    November 28, 2010 at 3:11 pm
    November is in the Autumn.
    Winter starts on Dec 1st ends on February 28th (as does a winter forecast).

    Over here in the Colonies Winter usually starts around Dec 21st or 22nd.

  82. tallbloke says:

    Topcliffe is about 30 miles from my home. It was very cold last night. My thermometer read -6.5C early this morning. A friend and I went to collect firewood. We had to use an axe to get the frozen stacked timbers apart before we could load them.

    Stay warm and safe, don’t forget a shovel, grit and sleeping bags, stove and brew kit if you have to drive outside town.

  83. pat says:

    it’s a small world:

    UK Met Office: Who We Are
    We are a Trading Fund within the Ministry of Defence, operating on a commercial basis under set targets.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who

    the Rear Admiral below was appointed by the previous UK Govt just prior to Copenhagen, but sent to Australia this month by the current UK Govt (please send him home). in this ABC TV appearance, he has to constantly glance down at his notes for his “talking points” and the interviewer appears ignorant of the connections between Met Office and Ministry of Defence:

    22 Nov: ABC TV Australia: Lateline: UK appoints special envoy for climate and energy security
    Transcript and Video
    LEIGH SALES: How much communication is there between, say, the British military and key British climate scientists?
    NEIL MORISETTI: We work with, for example, the Meteorological Office, the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and other organisations to get a better understanding of the science and to ensure that at the end of the day what we’re looking at is trying to reduce the risks to national security and the risk to us performing our tasks, and clearly, the better our understanding of the science, the better that will help us.
    LEIGH SALES: And is the scientific community happy enough to go along with that? I’m just wondering whether or not there might be elements of the scientific community that feel a little uncertain about sharing their knowledge with the military because they’re not sure how that knowledge might be used.
    NEIL MORISETTI: I haven’t come across that…
    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s3073553.htm

    got his Bachelor of Science from the UEA! nice.

    Wikipedia: Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti
    Morisetti was educated at the City of London School, and subsequently joined the Royal Navy in 1976. After initial training at Britannia Royal Naval College in Dartmouth he held shore postings and attended the University of East Anglia and graduated with a Bachelor of Science…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Morisetti

    11 Sept 2007: Met Office UK: Met Office Hadley Centre launches five-year programme
    The new Integrated Climate Programme (ICP) of the Met Office Hadley Centre for the first time combines the requirements of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Defence for information on climate change…
    Defra has signed a five-year deal with the Met Office Hadley Centre worth £74 million.
    MoD has signed a three-year deal with the Met Office Hadley Centre worth £12 million.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070911.html

    hmmm!

    24 Nov: Sydney Morning Herald: Climate change could add to global stress
    Max Blenkin, AAP Defence Correspondent
    Australia has no directly comparable official to Admiral Morisetti, who represents the UK Ministry of Defence, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Department of Energy and Climate Change…
    Admiral Morisetti said that on a map of global troublespots there was an uncanny correlation between areas of stress over water, food, health and demographic challenges, where conflict had occurred in the past two decades, and where climate change would have its greatest impact.
    Those areas also correlate with globaltrade routes…
    As nations take action against climate change, the military will also have to adapt, he said.
    “We are the great gas guzzlers of the world. My aircraft carrier did about 12 inches to the gallon and burnt 20 tonnes an hour to launch and recover jets,” he said.
    “That was sustainable costwise when it was $US30 a barrel. It would not be sustainable at $US250 to $US300 a barrel.”
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/climate-change-could-add-to-global-stress-20101124-186a5.html

    seems like the oil price going from around $30/barrel to $145/barrel in 2008 before heading back down wasn’t sufficient for CAGW purposes. beware the warmongers who might be eyeing a $300 a barrel scenario.

  84. Keith Minto says:

    Brian H says:
    November 28, 2010 at 4:17 pm
    Yes, that is a good trick (not supplied by Nature) to circulate heat that tends to pool at the ceiling. I have a ducted Lennox heat/cool system and in winter I turn the external cooling compressor off and switch the unit on to ‘cool’(after thermostat adjustment), so that air circulates through the house using the fans only.
    Must be my Scot’s blood.

  85. Ulric Lyons says:

    My UK November forecast (6 months in advance) was for a very warm start to the month, but increasingly cold in the last week, with cold blasts from the 21st, 23rd and 29th, though it has plunged colder than I expected. I can see some heavy snow falls following warming spurts later in December, especially just after Christmas.

  86. pat says:

    How many wrongs do you get before someone is fired?

  87. MattN says:

    Does anyone listen to the Met Office anymore? Does anyone take their forecasts seriously anymore?

  88. rbateman says:

    Talk about jumping out of a burning apartment and into the icy waters.
    Maybe they could get a good deal on shopping the Met Supercomputer on EBay, it’s clearly not working for them.

  89. tommy says:

    And here in Norway the metrological institute predicted the warmest winter in 60 years with temps ranging from 2-2.5c above normal average for winter months.
    Yet this november has broken all records with records going back over a century being broken by several degrees celsius.

  90. Geoff Sharp says:

    CodeTech says:

    Forecasts 20, 50, 100 years out are laughable. It is mind boggling that any sane individual could actually think we understand enough to do so.

    That is quite a statement. There is reasonable evidence to suggest that solar grand minima have a big impact on world climate. The depth and length of each grand minimum being the key. If the current solar slowdown continues into the predicted grand minimum there is no reason why we cant predict future world climate for great lengths of time (barring the onset of an ice age).

  91. H.R. says:

    Thanks to the Brits above who gave up their “secret forecast source.” It looks Like Joe B. is their go-to guy for weather forecasts.

  92. kuhnkat says:

    This ties back to the recent BOM announcement that CAGW disrupts their Climate Predictions!!!!!

    The Met wants to make us think that the weather is SOOOOOOOO unpredictable due to Global Climate Disruption that they cannot predict it!!! Another SCAM by the SCAMMERS!!!

    Of course they have a gentleman, Piers Corbyn, who is consistently predicting the weather and hammering them for their incompetence!!

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  93. Nonoy Oplas says:

    At least the UK climate bureaucrats now in Cancun will be ashamed to warn of “more warming and snow-free Europe” if the UK and other governments will not agree to a global ecological central planning scheme of the UN FCCC and its member-governments.

  94. Chris Edwards says:

    This is all part of why I left England! I used accuweather and it was as good as a sane person could expect, english houses are not well insulated and heat is costly, wood for burning is costly too, what a damn mess these clowns have dumped on us.

  95. Pamela Gray says:

    I think I’ve discovered a mechanism for the record cold and how to prevent it. The Met needs to issue warnings and monthly forecasts for severe, record setting cold! If they do, it seems we have a very good chance it will warm up quite nicely.

  96. According to Piers Corbin at weatheraction.com his winter forecasts for Britain have been correct for the last 5 years, while the forecasts from the government Met Office have been wrong for the last 5 years. Who should you trust?

  97. FijiDave says:

    Sounds like the bloke who did the forecast that allowed Ike to make the decision to send the troops to Normandy had a better grip on forecasting than the current lot, and sans computers to boot.

    I think, if those blokes thundering away to Germany in old Wellingtons and Lancasters during the war (like my father – 81 ops) had this lot for forecasters, a lot more of them would not have got back.

  98. Doug Jones says:

    Only slightly OT but I see the UAH temperature graphs haven’t been updating for the last few days. Anyone have any idea what the problem is? Satellite or equipment problems?

  99. Doug says:

    Bob Tisdale says: November 28, 2010 at 3:48 pm
    David, UK says: “A sadly misguided and zealous Green friend of mine told me the other day that the cold is due to the slowing down of the Gulf stream…”
    And recently I was told that the Gulf oil spill would result in a slowing of the Gulf Stream and cause a cool winter for Europe.
    —————————————————————————–
    Nah! I have it on good authority – The oil spill would make the Gulf Stream more slippery- it would speed it up. I predict a warmer winter in Europe!

    Doug

  100. JDN says:

    The MET was right! I am having a barbeque winter… no matter how much snow I need to shovel to reach the grill.

    No snow yet, but, I’m amazed how poorly charcoal fired grills cook during the winter. There’s just too much dissipation of heat.

  101. Robert Wykoff says:

    The Met office will continue to say the winter will be milder than normal, until the winter actually is warmer than normal. It is a statistical certainty that this will happen sooner or later, most likely sooner than later. At that point they will crow about their accurate prediction, and there will be news report after news report about this being proof that global warming is actually happening, and everybody is going to die.

  102. Steve Oregon says:

    If I had the button to punch in front of me that would halt all public funding for climate related research I would push it.

    Other sciences have the genuine ability to produce real benefit from research.

    Perhaps after all of those who have been perpertrating the AGW farce are no longer involved in science a return to some limited research could proceed.

  103. Chris says:

    The predictions of the Met Office are about as believable as my local council (Edinburgh, Scotland) anouncing that it had gritters out on the roads 24/7 to deal with the several inches of global warming currently sitting and freezing on the ground.

    Well, I had to trundle around a bit yesterday and on main roads too and if they were gritted at any point in the last 48 hours then my name is Al Gore.

  104. keith says:

    The MET office needs to keep up the bad good work. They are doing a wonderful job indeed of demonstrating to the general public how off the mark the whole AGW theory is.

    Maybe we need a Nobble Prize for forecasting?

  105. anna v says:

    Just to make the northern people jealous and keep a perspective that weather is chaotic, in Greece we are having the warmest November for decades. It is 21 degrees day and night outside, all due to southern winds which bring air from Africa.

    Five day fore cast of the week gives more of the same, with a bit of cooling at night (12-16C minimums) some nights. In Crete they have 27 C maximum.

  106. Lorne LeClerc says:

    We frost-backs have just come out of an unseasonable three week long deep freeze in western Canada. Some 10 days ago we had a day time high of -27C versus the long term daily average of +1C for this time of year. Conversely the eastern Canadian arctic has been unseasonably warm. Living in a continental climate, to the east of the Rockies, the temperature, on any particular day can easily be 15 to 20 deg C higher or lower, relative to the long term climatic average. That is the nature of weather. This is why I have such a difficulty with the incessant alarm over the ecosystem in the N. Hemisphere being stressed by a positive change of 1-3degC to the long term average temperature. This ecosystem is adapted to withstand much larger daily temperature variation on any particular day from year to year. A positive drift in the long term average temperature just does not seem to me to represent a real or significant threat. However, if increased CO2 resulted in a significant long term change in precipitation, or in the annual number of frost free days, this would be significant.

  107. peterhodges says:

    anthony if they used your dartboard method they might actually get one right occasionally

  108. savethesharks says:

    Time for the venerable ghost of Charles Dickens to start writing some more tales.

    Check out the latest London forecast. Brrrrrr.

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=London,%20United%20Kingdom&wuSelect=WEATHER

    And on the Emerald Isle where it is currently 19 degrees F in Dublin!

    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Dublin,%20Ireland&wuSelect=WEATHER

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  109. James Sexton says:

    David, UK says:
    November 28, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    “A sadly misguided and zealous Green friend of mine …………
    Familiar scenario, people?”
    ========================================================

    Yeh, it used to be, but now I’ve no misguided green friends. Might have something to do with me just pointing and laughing at them now. There was a few that did allow me to expose them to a different perspective. And, now, while still friends, they are no longer misguided greenies. :-)

  110. AndyW says:

    I really don’t think the Daily Mail should be used as sources for WUWT, it has a terrible reputation for scaremongering and bad reporting aimed at it’s elderly readership, like my mother. It’s rather worrying that WUWT readers also read it …

    For instance, on the page where the Daily Mail got it’s seasonal forecast it says in big letters “Don’t use this for seasonal forecasts” … so they did. Go figure.

    The monthly forecasts have been ok up to now for the Metoffice, it did forecast this cold snap.

    Andy

  111. David W says:

    Who do you believe?

    The BBC weather forecast for Dublin today (Mon 29th) says a minimum of 0 degC (from the Met office).

    The current reading at Dublin airport, only 5 miles north and a similar distance from the coast at 6:00am GMT is -7 degC.

    Only slightly wrong??

  112. David A. Evans says:

    What Tallbloke didn’t mention is that Topcliffe is an airfield site.

    DaveE.

  113. Richard111 says:

    I live in Milford Haven, Wales, UK. This place is as far west as Truro in Cornwall. The outside temperature over the last 24 hours has not exceeded 0C and is currently -4C. I have lived here 7 years and not experienced this level of cold in November. Back in February this year we did get -7C.

    During this year, 2010, I can confirm we had snow in January, February, March and November and it looks like December too according to forcasts, yet the UK MET office claims this will the the “hottest year on record” !!!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11841368

  114. a jones says:

    I really don’t know what the Met Office is up to.

    My local met station just three miles away is one to the reporting stations for the shipping forecasts.

    And I can access its forecast updated regularly on line.

    Some years ago I gave up on its five day forecast.

    But my credulity in its current 24 hour forecast is now somewhat stretched.

    At 06:08 GMT today it reported temperature as 3 degrees C, my local instruments say about minus 2. Which is why the snow underfoot has frozen into a treacherous skating rink.

    It is unusually cold here, and I have been watching their 3 hr forecasts with interest, in general they seem to be overestimating by about 2 degrees C.

    Twenty years ago I would have simply phoned them up and spoken to the Met Officer but you cannot do that now, you have to go thru London HQ and never get a direct answer.

    So WUWT?

    Progress I suppose.

    Kindest Regards.

  115. john edmondson says:

    In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent. Not surprising when a petaflop computer is available to do all the calculations.
    84 hours is the point , anything over 84 hours and you have no chance. The starting conditions are not known well enough, this leads to more and more uncertainty if the forecast.
    I guessing but I think 84 hours is the limit in terms of an accurate forecast.

  116. JER0ME says:

    Brian H says:
    November 28, 2010 at 4:17 pm

    Regardless of heating source, there’s a ‘trick’ you can use to cut your costs by about 40%. Get a small fan or two, and set in a corner of your largest room(s). If designed for vertical operation, point up; otherwise, use a deflector to send the air up the corner join of the walls.

    The mixing of cool floor air with heated ceiling air will quickly make the room more comfortable, and means you won’t have to fill the room with warm air from the top down. A serious saving, believe me.

    The “built-in” version I saw in an architectural magazine was a hollow column in the corner with a small internal fan (directed up or down; doesn’t matter).

    Well, knock me down with a feather. What a brilliant and cheap idea. We have ceiling fans in most rooms but never thought to use them in winter to keep the warm air down here. Will definitely do that next winter (we are in Oz).

  117. Cassandra King says:

    The UK met office sold their corporate soul for CAGW gold, it was showered upon them enabling them to purchase new luxury buildings and super computers and extra staff and a very comfortable lifestyle for those at the top, a typical useless bureaucracy of sell outs and bunglers.

    There is always a high price to be paid for selling out though, the met office stooges had to toe the party line, forecasts had to toe the party line and executive minders were brought on board to ensure the party line was followed. The met office purchased a very expensive super computer which they promised would provide unparalleled accuracy and detail, what they failed to appreciate was of the maxim GIGO so the product was worthless but even that didnt matter because following the party line was more important that honesty and truthfulness.

    We in the UK have witnessed a national tragedy and humiliation as famous and loved national institutions have been subverted and destroyed one after the other, institutions that formed and shaped the modern world have been eaten from the inside until only a shell remains. The met office is now paying the price, the heaviest of prices for deciding to sell its soul but we all share in their shame and humiliation, we are the owners of the met office and our pride has been replaced by shame at the actions of those entrusted to care for and build upon the wonderful legacy that our forebears built in centuries past.

    The UK met office is a joke but who among us is laughing? Our once trusted and respected national institution that spawned the worlds meteorological bodies is now a pathetic joke whose sole aim it seems is to consume the hundreds of millions of pounds it sold its very soul to possess. They say money cant buy you love, well it certainly cant buy respect.

  118. CodeTech says:

    Geoff Sharp says:

    That is quite a statement. There is reasonable evidence to suggest that solar grand minima have a big impact on world climate. The depth and length of each grand minimum being the key. If the current solar slowdown continues into the predicted grand minimum there is no reason why we cant predict future world climate for great lengths of time (barring the onset of an ice age).

    But that’s my point… at the moment we can’t. Generalities for future climate will be fine after another few decades when we’ve documented more with modern instrumentation, and gained a better understanding of cycles in play. Unfortunately, we will have to discard a large amount of the record due to the AGW’s polluting it by artificially depressing older temperatures.

    By the way, is altering data not a crime against Science?

  119. tonyb says:

    Stephen Brown at 2pm said

    “Unfortunately I cannot afford to pay the newly-imposed increases in my energy bills, both electricity and gas, which have been Government-mandated in order to pay for all of the windmills that Huhne thinks will provide me with electricity.”

    Please read the rest of what he said as this is coming to a country near you. There are 5 milion HOUSEHOLDS in the UK in fuel poverty and probably another 5 million who have severely cut back on their fuel use, and as a result are uncomfortable in their own homes during this cold weather. That’s probably 30 million people-half the UK population.

    The cost of our fuel for travel is also sky high. This is largely caused by taxation of one kind or another including green taxes in recent times to fund hugely expensive and ineficient renewable energy projects. This is all to reach our legal obligations to reduce carbon, the only country in the entire world to voluntarily shackle themselves to this madness, with the subsequent damage to the competitiveness of our industry and huge cost to the population.

    I live along the South coast from my namesake Stephen Brown and we havent had any snow as yet, although the Met office had forecast some for last friday causing the local authorities to scramble all available gritting lorries to keep a notorious hill free of the white stuff. Its been blocked the last two years running after the Met office failed to properly predict what was coming.

    The hill is three miles away fro the Met office in Exeter. If they can’t properly forecast for the same day for places three miles away from them they certainly can’t forecast for the entire winter let alone for 100 years ahead.

    On Saturday night I recorded minus 6C the coldest night since we moved here 10 years ago, let alone in November.

    As I can’t aford to put on our central heating during the day I’m off to my study which I’ll try to keep warm whilst I write part two of one of my historic climate articles. Coincidentally it deals with the (non) reliabilty of global temperatures and SST’s-the Met office/Hadley core disciplines.

    The stupidity of using Met office records as the basis to penalise the UK population and try to close down our industry just beggars belief.

    (a very cold) Tonyb

  120. Volt Aire says:

    It made headlines here in Finland that Global Warming is going to change the region to be colder in the coming years. HEADLINES! There is no ****ing limit to the bull**** they push! It was -21C this morning and that is about 21 degs from the average. Yea, weather is not climate… ;)

    Just looking at that ENSO image on the right we can be pretty sure it isn’t going to be much warmer any time soon… Pretty huge La Nina going on.

  121. sean boyce says:

    I think the Mail and Telegraph articles refer to the probability maps on the Met site. Given the same forecaster is quoted in both articles my guess is that they looked up the Met probability map for Europe and from that picked out the % probability of below, normal and above for the coming 3 months.
    If you search ‘probability map’ you will find it on the met site. If I’m reading them right they are still giving only a 20% (rising to max 40%) chance of colder than average winter in UK. Large parts of northern Europe are still getting a prediction of above average temperatures for the winter. They must be expecting things to pick up a lot in Jan! Either that or they use a computer with a built in warming bias. But I’m sure they wouldn’t do anything like that would they?

  122. tonyb says:

    savethesharks says:

    “November 28, 2010 at 9:37 pm
    Time for the venerable ghost of Charles Dickens to start writing some more tales”

    I wrote about the climate of Britain during the 19th century through the persective of the life and times of Charles Dickens. You can read it here.

    http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/bah-humbug/

    Tonyb

  123. geronimo says:

    “In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent.”

    If you believe that John I suggest you take a screen grab of the BBC home page everyday for a month. I did, and found that the MET office was barely accurate over a 24 hour period and not accurate beyond that.

    Their forecasts were considerably more accurate when they used a combination of weather balloons and people on the West Coast of Ireland telegraphing (later telexing) and phoning through the weather being experienced there in term of wind, precipitation and temperature. It was set up to give forecasts for shipping, they are quite good at that because the “forecasts” tend to be based on reported observations, nothing wrong with that by the way shipping still needs to know what the weather’s like even if the forecast hasn’t been produced by a computer.

  124. 899 says:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/28/freaking-out-about-nyc-sea-level-rise-is-easy-to-do-when-you-dont-pay-attention-to-history/#more-28551

    November 28, 2010 at 11:42 pm
    [snip - we don't need vulgarity in your comments to push your point of view repeatedly. - take a time out ~mod]
    DO TELL: How is evidence of what happened both 1000 and 2000 years ago, considered ‘vulgarity?’

    You’ll be talking about that, won’t you?

    In the meantime, there’s this to REMIND you:

    HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
    http://www.archaeoleg.org.uk/pdf/roman/KEY%20SITES%20SE%20WALES%20ROMAN.pdf

    HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Discovery-of-log-boat-shows.5537797.jp

    HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
    http://www.maldonsx.freeserve.co.uk/Maeldune/first_maldonians.htm

    HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
    http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/pdfs/severnarchaeodesignguidefinal06.pdf

    HOW IS THIS VULGARITY?!?!?!?!
    http://www.rcahmw.gov.uk/HI/ENG/Heritage+of+Wales/Places/Sea+and+Coast/

    TALK ABOUT THAT!

  125. Ian W says:

    Kev-in-UK says:
    November 28, 2010 at 1:56 pm
    and just so some of non-UK folk can see the **** we have to put up with – this is from the BBC earlier this year
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm

    We are starting to see a mantra from these climate ‘scientists’ that “the observations are wrong not the model”. This is stated at least twice in this link, we hear it about ARGO temperature reports and about the tropical tropospheric hot-spot.

    When a model is validated against the real world and the model results don’t match the observation claiming the real world is incorrect is not even ‘post normal science’ it is anti-science.

  126. Ceri Phipps says:

    The -18 c temperature in Wales was not only the lowest recorded in Wales, but the lowest for anywhere in the UK for that date. I have 35cm of snow in my garden and the children are home because the schools are all closed. Its only November!

  127. Graham White says:

    From Monday’s Daily Mail:

    Temperatures now forecast to plummet to MINUS 20 Degrees C,

    The big freeze has brought mayhem to commuters this morning, after the coldest November night in a quarter of a century.

    Motoring groups have predicted a ‘nightmare’, with roads blocked by snow and ice and cars struggling to start after sitting on driveways in sub-zero conditions all weekend.

    And a London Underground strike has crippled the network, causing lengthy delays in the freezing temperatures for millions of commuters.

    The Siberian blast has already led to heavy snow blanketing swathes of the country.

    Forecasters warned that the mercury will plunge even lower – to minus 20C – as the severe weather continues until next week, with snow due to hit London and the Home Counties tonight.

  128. Ian Cooper says:

    To Darren Parker (Nov 28th 4.09 p.m.) in South Oz,

    your heat has been transferred across ‘The Ditch’ mate (the Tasman Sea to the rest of you non Aussie/Kiwis). A long awaited for strong La Nina summer is upon us and showing all of the usual signs that we will enjoy a decent, long, hot summer here in many parts of N.Z. The farmers won’t like it of course because of the possibility of drought.

    Parts of the Mainland (South Islander’s name for their island) have broken November records over the weekend for T-Max. Central Otago which enjoys a continental style climate, hit 31C. To have such high temperatures at this time in our southern spring is not totally unusual though.

    Just to put a spoke in the comments of those concerned about the change of seasons on December 1st consider this, the seasons are an astronomical event caused by a set of astronomical circumstances. The weather and climate that results from those change in circumstances are merely the symptoms of those changes. Without the tilt of the earth’s axis there would be no seasons as we know them. The cardinal dates in the changing of the seasons are the solstices and equinoxes. Thanks to politics and religion we (or is that the Romans) missed the chance to align the calendar with the seasons. We have lived with the confused results of that for over 2,000 years.
    Dates like December 1st etc have been used by latter day scientists such as meteorologists to define their seasons, i.e. the “Meteorological Seasons,” in recent times.

    For me I like to simplify things by having two seasons. Here are my two southern seasons. The Cold Season starts on May 6th (mid autumn in the S.H. – half way between the autumn equinox and the winter solstice) through to Nov 5th (half way between the spring equinox and the summer solstice). The hot season is Nov 6th-May 5th. This puts the hottest time of the year in the middle, i.e. the first week of February. It doesn’t quite work out so well for the Cold Season as July is traditionally colder here than August, but August is traditionally when the snow is heaviest and corresponds to the middle of the snowfall period consistently.

    Based upon predictions that this La Nina will be on a par with the strong La Ninas of the 1970′s and in particular 1974, we can expect this southern summer to also be on a par with the summer of 1974-75 (BTW the hottest ‘Hot Season’ experienced here in my 53 years on the planet, 0.3 degrees C above the summer of 1998-99). The hottest recorded ‘Hot Season here was in 1934-35, another 0.3 C hotter again. The caveat on this though is the fact that the southern winter here of 1975 was one of the coldest on record and snow fell in my home town of Palmerston North for one of the few times in the past 130 years!

    This small variation and the spread of the hottetst ‘Hot Seasons’ over the recorded period (1928-2010) shows to me that what we are experiencing in both hemispheres, and in different parts of those different hemipheres, is nothing more than the natural variation that has long controlled our earth’s climate.

    Although the variation of the Hot Seasons has changed little over the recorded period, the Cold Seasons have shown a slow rise in T-Max Mean for my location in New Zealand. My graph plots for a purely subjective estimate for mountain snowfall here from 1980-2010, are almost a copy of the recently posted measured snowfalls for Santa Fe that cover the same period. The upshot of that is the recent years have seen an increase in frequency of falls and greater quantities , similar to the Santa Fe records for the 1970′s (unfortunately my incomplete records, there are a few gaps, started in 1980). There is strong speculation that we are in for an increased La Nina dominant period such as 1945-1975. If that is true then I for one have no fear of what is to come in the next three decades. It is nothing our generations haven’t experienced before. It is the suggestion that the declining activity on the sun may see us return to something akin to the early 19th century, i.e. the Dalton Minimum or worse, that is more worrying.

    Cheers

    Coops

  129. tallbloke says:

    David A. Evans says:
    November 28, 2010 at 10:56 pm (Edit)
    What Tallbloke didn’t mention is that Topcliffe is an airfield site.

    For light aircraft only.

    The Vale of York often gets winter temperature inversions which depress valley bottom temperatures under freezing fogs. That will be why it was 6C colder than my locality.

  130. Kate says:

    Forget the Met Office – it’s just another arm of the carbon-taxing-brainwashing-lying-propaganda machine, and a national joke and an international embarrassment.

    As for Cancun, it’s been widely ignored except for the Independent on Sunday which put it on their front page. They shouldn’t have bothered because Cancun is just another economic meeting for rich people in poor countries to try and scam/browbeat/guilt-trip poor people in rich countries out of hundreds of billions of dollars, and there’s not a real scientist in sight.

    If you want a prediction, how about this one -

    NEW ICE AGE “TO BEGIN IN 2014″

    Russian scientist to alarmists: “Sun heats Earth!”

    Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, predicts that a new “Little Ice Age” could begin in just four years. Abdussamatov explains that average annual sun activity has experienced an accelerated decrease since the 1990s.

    Head of the Russian-Ukrainian project “Astrometria” http://www.bobbrinsmead.com/e_Abdussamatov.html on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov’s theory is that “long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods.

    In his speech, Abdussamatov took on advocates of the theory of man-caused warming who want to curtail our use of hydrocarbon fuels. He contended, instead, that a reasonable way to combat coming cooling trends would be “to maintain economic growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the 21st century.”

    Sun’s activity determines temperatures

    Abdussamatov argues that total sun irradiance, or TSI, is the primary factor responsible for causing climate variations on Earth, not carbon dioxide. “Carbon dioxide is not guilty,” says Abdussamatov. “As for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop.”

    Abdussamatov pointed to the English astronomer Walter Maunder, who noticed that sunspots had been generally absent from 1645 to 1715. That period coincided with the middle and coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which began around 1650 and extended through 1850.

    “There is now an unavoidable advance toward a global decrease, a deep temperature drop comparable to the Maunder minimum,” he wrote. “Already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. The observed global warming of the climate of the Earth is not caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses, but by extraordinarily high solar intensity that extended over virtually the entire past century. Future decrease in global temperature will occur even if anthropogenic ejection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere rises to record levels. The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years.”

    The full article & his presentation can be found at http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=155225

    ****************************************

    As if that wasn’t enough – here’s something for all those bloated egos at Cancun and the IPCC:

    “Consensus was reached before the research had begun.”

    Dr Richard Lindzen, Professor at MIT UN-IPCC Lead Author:

    “It’s not 2,500 people offering their consensus, I participated in that. Each person who is an author writes one or two pages in conjunction with someone else…but ultimately, it is written by representatives of governments, of environmental organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists, and industrial organizations, each seeking their own benefit. Controlling carbon is kind of a bureaucrat’s dream. If you control carbon, you control life.

    “One of the things the scientific community is pretty agreed on is those things [to control carbon emissions] will have virtually no impact on climate no matter what the models say. So the question is do you spend trillions of dollars to have no impact? And that seems like a no-brainer.

    “At present, the greenhouse forcing is already about three-quarters of what one would get from a doubling of CO2. But average temperatures rose only about 0.6 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era, and the change hasn’t been uniform – warming has largely occurred during the periods from 1919 to 1940 and from 1976 to 1998, with cooling in between. Researchers have been unable to explain this discrepancy.

    “Current climate models would have predicted a substantially greater increase in the past temperature than has been observed in the past 150 years, perhaps +3 deg C compared to the +0.6 deg C we have witnessed.” (testimony to the House of Lords Select Committee 2005)

  131. Luis says:

    Hello everyone, just dropping by to tell that these below normal temperatures are affecting pretty much all of western Europe. I don’t recall ever wearing full winter clothing this early. The Met Office can’t forecast the weather for they do not know, or do not want to know, the dynamics that rule our climate. In their blind pursuit for money with global warming catastrophism they forget about doing their job.

    Meanwhile, folk in the UK should keep a close [eye?] on Natural Gas storage, present figures are considerably below what they were this time last year. Will it be this winter that we’ll have a household supply failure, beyond the usual industry supply failures?

  132. carps says:

    Haha – I read this story a couple of weeks ago and placed a friendly wager in the office on the back of it that we’d have an early, cold winter. I’m ready to collect :)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321710/Siberian-swans-fly-early-winter-snow-hits-British-forecast-Friday.html

  133. anopheles says:

    Not sure whether anyone has posted this, the November 1st monthly outlook is at:

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/22737-bbc-weather-monthly-outlook/page__st__374

    It has not turned out to be accurate, shock.

  134. Tony Armstrong says:

    They are still claiming ‘that with an overall warming trend one can expect cold snap incidents like this’!!!

  135. SteveE says:

    That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.

    A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.

    ——————————–

    It was quite difficult, it was under:

    Weather -> UK -> Forecast -> UK, region and location forecasts -> Day 16-30

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    How anyone is meant to find it when they hide it like that is beyond me! ;-)

  136. Jim says:

    Competition Time. Spot a moving wind turbine in the UK or Ireland. (The winner gets 10 tonnes of Co2 credits from the ccx exchange)

    I have passed 2 wind turbine farms in the past 3 days and none of the turbines are moving. Is any part of the isles got a moving wind turbine?

  137. David Waring says:

    There are two big problems with the Met Office’s web product. Firstly, it has no memory – all forecasts are continually overwritten as they are updated. As a consequence it is impossible to judge its accuracy objectively, unless one writes one’s own capture logic. And secondly, as alluded to above, it uses the same models as it employs for its AGW predictions. This consistently and erroneously overestimates the predicted temperature up until at the latest 24 hours before. After that point, at which I understand a real person becomes involved in making the forecast, things align a lot more closely with reality.

    As to any defence – its performance over the past month has been truly abject, and for the past five days it has a 100% failure rate for my part of the world – central England – predicting snow when none has fallen and vice versa.

  138. Alexander K says:

    My own outdoor max/min temp readings have become closer recently to Met Office forecasts, but still considerably below theirs as a percentage . It is still officially Autumn here in the UK and experiencing entire days in suburban outer London where the temp soars to 0 Celcius is tough on the fuel bills.
    I am stunned on a daily basis by the breathless nonsense one Louise Gray has published in the Telegraph. Is she a pseudonym for a cut-and-paste service for agw? I Googled the name but apparently it is a common one in the UK and gives no info.
    I listened to a local FM station for a short while this morning and got sick of the the nonsense being promulgated about globull warming by wannabe slebs – it seems any meeja person taking the Queen’s shilling has to insert x amount of AGW BS every hour. The ‘off’ button is a great comfort – I know it doesn’t do anything to correct the nonsense but it stops me throwing something hard and heavy at the radio.

  139. Roy says:

    @ AndyW:

    “I really don’t think the Daily Mail should be used as sources for WUWT, it has a terrible reputation for scaremongering and bad reporting aimed at it’s elderly readership, like my mother. It’s rather worrying that WUWT readers also read it.”

    What a patronising and insulting attitude you show to your own mother! There is a great deal wrong with the country and you must be in a state of denial if you do not realise that. As for scaremongering, haven’t you read anything the Guardian has written about global warming?

    You also wrote:

    “For instance, on the page where the Daily Mail got it’s seasonal forecast it says in big letters ‘Don’t use this for seasonal forecasts’ … so they did. Go figure. ”

    Of course newspapers use leaked information. All of them do, not just the Daily Mail. The Met Office still makes seasonal forecasts but since its infamous “barbecue summer” forecast it no longer makes them public. The article in the Daily Mail shows why they want to keep their seasonal forecasts secret but since British taxpayers are paying for them we have a right to know whether the Met Office is improving or getting even worse.

  140. Gareth Evans says:

    Last year, the MET Office prediction for a mild winter was changed the day after the Copenhagen summit finished. For most people this laid bare the politicisation of the MET office. I don’t expect the MET office to toy with the truth about this winter until Cancun concludes.

  141. tallbloke says:

    Luis says:
    November 29, 2010 at 1:17 am
    Meanwhile, folk in the UK should keep a close [eye?] on Natural Gas storage, present figures are considerably below what they were this time last year. Will it be this winter that we’ll have a household supply failure, beyond the usual industry supply failures?

    This is one of the reasons I was out in the snow yesterday getting an extra ton of wood to keep my logburner going through an extra cold winter. Even I didn’t expect the freeze to begin so severely in November.

    I also resent the high gas price, largely due to unjustifiable ‘Green’ taxes, which are not only well in excess of what the govt says mitigation will cost, but are based on a failed theory anyway.

  142. Gareth Evans says:

    As Alexander K points out just above, the barrage of pre-Cancun propoganda has begun in earnest here in the UK. Have a look at these truly astonishing pieces of ‘journalism’. Louise Gray of the Telegraph certainly gives the impression of cut and pasting NGO press releases. In the first exhibit, Oxfam claim those pakistan flood deaths were due to global warming. Nothing to do with engineering, an increasing population, poor planning etc. The second exhibit is a prime watermelon example. We’ve got to go back in time folks.

    Cancun climate change summit: deaths from floods and drought double
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165784/Cancun-climate-change-summit-deaths-from-floods-and-drought-double.html

    Cancun climate change summit: scientists call for rationing in developed world
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165769/Cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world.html

  143. tallbloke says:

    carps says:
    November 29, 2010 at 1:35 am (Edit)
    Haha – I read this story a couple of weeks ago and placed a friendly wager in the office on the back of it that we’d have an early, cold winter. I’m ready to collect :)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1321710/Siberian-swans-fly-early-winter-snow-hits-British-forecast-Friday.html

    I wrote on this blog a while ago:

    tallbloke says:
    August 24, 2010 at 7:09 am
    Someone on WUWT noted a month or so ago that swallows were leaving for points south over the English Channel, around two months earlier than usual. The old guy in the boat noted it was the earliest he’d seen them leave since 1947. Another old guy I met last year told me his family was snowed in at a farm outside Howarth, West Yorkshire during that year, in June.

    Brace for another cold NH winter.

  144. AngusPangus says:

    Now look here, it’s just not true that there was any such thing as the so-called Modern-evil Warm Period. That’s just a thoroughly-debunked-zombie-talking-point which has been cut and pasted from anti-science communist Stalinist -atrocity denying shill blogs paid for by Big Green. No, all the evidence now proves that what we have here is merely a Modern-evil Climate Anomaly – whilst there certainly is localised warming at a regional scale (predominantly in the high Arctic, Siberia, and other largely uninhabited areas with no thermometers), other areas are suffering from significantly lower than normal tempertatures. Whilst on average, temperatures may be slightly above historic “norms”, it cannot be said with any certainty at all that warming during the Modern-evil Climate Anomaly was either truly global, universal, or exceptional.

    ;-)

  145. Kate says:

    Here’s another prediction for you -

    Many scientists are going to dump their Global-Warming-Grant-Junkie chums and start revealing the scientific truths which have up to now been so shamefully ignored by the permanently-hysterical media and shouted down by the global warming Mafia.

    Like this, for instance…

    A top East European climatologist, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with UN “global warming” colleagues, jumps a sinking ship as ocean data signals a cooler climate.

    Dr. Lucka Kajfež Bogataj left cold clear water between herself and her former UN shipmates by declaring that rising levels of airborne carbon dioxide probably don’t cause global temperatures to rise. The news scuppers hope for a change in fortune for the beleaguered UN climate agency. Their doomed ship, the IPCC, has been sailing on an ill wind ever since it was struck by that Climategate ‘torpedo’ last year.

    The Slovenian climate professor made the chilling announcement last month in an obscure foreign language journal that has only now been translated into English. The lambast came in the publication Delo Polet (18/11/2010), translated into English as, “Inconvenient Truth.” Inside Bogataj publishes a paper entitled, “The more we know, the better”.

    Buried in an otherwise drab study on paleo – and proxy methods, Dr. Bogataj admitted to what skeptics have long been saying and what the ice core proxy data shows: that rises in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are proven to mostly, if not always, occur after rises in temperature.

    Canada Free Press November 22, 2010

  146. SteveE says:

    You also wrote:

    “For instance, on the page where the Daily Mail got it’s seasonal forecast it says in big letters ‘Don’t use this for seasonal forecasts’ … so they did. Go figure. ”

    Of course newspapers use leaked information. All of them do, not just the Daily Mail. The Met Office still makes seasonal forecasts but since its infamous “barbecue summer” forecast it no longer makes them public. The article in the Daily Mail shows why they want to keep their seasonal forecasts secret but since British taxpayers are paying for them we have a right to know whether the Met Office is improving or getting even worse.

    ——————–

    If the Met Office still makes a seasonal forecast but doesn’t publish it who is it for? Why would they keep a secret seasonal forecast?

    Perhaps the Met Office was also involved in faking the moon landings as well!

  147. John_in_Oz says:

    Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University, said the warming bias in the annual prediction was a red herring.

    “All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10625172

  148. David says:

    For an acccurate weather forecast, I don’t think you can beat those suspended stones you can buy on the internet..
    ‘Stone dry and warm – sunny weather..’
    ‘Stone wet – rain..’
    ‘Can’t see stone – fog..’
    ‘Stone swinging – windy..’
    ‘Snow on stone – snow..’
    Etc. Works for me…

  149. anna v says:

    tallbloke :
    November 29, 2010 at 2:50 am

    I respect animal signals more and more. In our case, a night owl that winters in Egypt could still be heard a week ago, usually they leave in october.

    Starlings have not appeared yet. We get thousands swirling above our heads in the winter. This tells me that the regions they come from from the north are not yet snow covered.

    The lilac bush on my balcony is blooming.

    The tangerine tree at the cottage is blooming :( while the tangerines are still green, usually harvested in february.

    I have read someplace that in Byzantine chronicles there was a year with two harvests. I have seen fruit trees bloom in December some decades ago. Maybe when the average temperatures drop the weather in Greece becomes more temperate and this could explain the great desire of all sort of peoples over the centuries to come down and invade us :).

  150. Peter Taylor says:

    It is not as if the MetOffice in the UK does not know all of this…NAO, AMO, mobile polar highs, jetstream (they didn’t have anyone working on the jetstream when I talked to them in 2008)….they have some very good oceanographers who are well aware of the nature of cyles. But it is an old story of an organisation that is an arm of government policy, and if they make any submissions that do not meet that policy, they are told to go away and revise them….and eventually they learn how to tell their masters what they want to hear. The screw is then turned from the top down and nobody dares get out of line.

    This is now the third cold winter in a row – despite a major El Nino event marking a difference from last winter. With a La Nina likely to follow, the future looks even colder – and all this is predictable from ‘alternative’ theory of solar effects, UV and jetstream links that they have been made aware of (it is all in my 2009 book: ‘Chill: a reassessment of global warming theory’ which doesn’t seem to get much coverage in the US but has been up to no1 on Amazon’s global warming list in the UK). I have repeatedly made the offer to debate this material publically – but right now, Radio Leeds are the only offers, in fifteen minutes time, because they are under a couple of feet of snow and they remember a lecture I gave at their University nearly a year ago – that has been the only University lecture/debate, and then only because some of the staff knew me personally. There is a virtually complete blanket shutting out intelligent informed discussion.

  151. redetin says:

    Some very strange things have happened here in the north of Scotland this month. The leaves turned brown and fell from most of the trees.

    Then in the past week we have had some heavy snowfalls. Are the two related? Have these falling leaves caused the snow to fall?

  152. UK John says:

    The UK Met office is crammed full of staff whose jobs depend on a continued belief in AGW. Read their mission statement and the instructions to staff, their mission is to communicate AGW belief to the population

    Three cold winters in a row, when the MET office forecast mild winters, their forecasting credibility is now very low, but they still will continue to broadcast the AGW message.

  153. Geoff Sharp says:

    CodeTech says:
    November 29, 2010 at 12:04 am

    But that’s my point… at the moment we can’t.

    That’s a long way from saying we have to be insane to be able to predict future climate. The current cycle is following predictions, lets touch bases in 12 months and review your comment?

  154. DennisA says:

    My favourite line from the Met monthly forecast page…

    “The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster.”

  155. Viv Evans says:

    If the climate-change priesthood weren’t on their way to Cancun – all 15,000 of them – we’d not be freezing now!

    The same happened last year, didn’t it …

    Looks like having them junket around is the best defense against globull warming.

    :-)

  156. kzb says:

    As we know weather is not climate so we should not get too excited about a couple of weeks cold weather. Also remember it is not actually winter yet, so winter could indeed turn out to be mild (having got all the cold stuff out the way in Autumn : )

    What is worse is the Met office statement that 2010 is on track to be the warmest or second warmest year on record. That CANNOT be right (remember last winter) but no one seems to be challenging it !

  157. roger says:

    pat says:
    November 28, 2010 at 4:54 pm
    “We are the great gas guzzlers of the world. My aircraft carrier did about 12 inches to the gallon and burnt 20 tonnes an hour to launch and recover jets,” he said.
    “That was sustainable costwise when it was $US30 a barrel. It would not be sustainable at $US250 to $US300 a barrel.”

    The Rear Admiral has no need to worry.
    Our Con/Lib coalition govt. are well ahead of the curve here. The two new aircraft carriers we are building at a cost of B£5 have been cunningly designed to cope with this problem – NO AIRCRAFT will be available to fly from them!!
    Two more white elephants to add to the thousands of others blighting the landscape and at this moment producing 1% of electrical consumption.
    Aren’t our politicians wonderful?

  158. Nylo says:

    I live in Madrid. It is snowing a little bit today, in the city. I have never experienced such a thing in the month of November. Snow in the nearby mountains, not so usual but I have seen it sometimes. Snow in the city center, no. I had never seen it before December.

  159. SteveE says:

    kzb says:
    November 29, 2010 at 4:33 am

    What is worse is the Met office statement that 2010 is on track to be the warmest or second warmest year on record. That CANNOT be right (remember last winter) but no one seems to be challenging it !

    ————————

    Didn’t they have to import snow for the Winter Olympics?

    Just because we had a few cold weeks doesn’t mean globally it was a cold year.

  160. ANH says:

    In today’s UK Telegraph is possibly the most ridiculous alarmist propaganda rubbish that I have ever read. The article is by poor dear deluded Louise Grey who is the Telegraph jopurnalist who gets to write some alarmist BS every day.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8165769/Cancun-climate-change-summit-scientists-call-for-rationing-in-developed-world.html

  161. P Wilson says:

    ok this is anecdotal, but even in relatively warm london, i’ve suffered 3 days of frostbite, even when wearing thermal gloves. I’ve never seen this in November. My thermometer read 25F on saturday night 11pm and it’s predicted to get colder this week.

    To paraphrase the MET office “It would be even colder had it not been for global warming” – chortle

  162. P Wilson says:

    kzb says:
    November 29, 2010 at 4:33 am

    I would give this perspective th ebenefit of the doubt – except that Vicky pope said that the last year had shown the proof of AGW in the UK

  163. Dave says:

    “A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service. Anybody know where to find it?”

    Bit disappointed in you. Took me all of 30 seconds to find it. Click on the Weather | UK option from the row of tabs running across the top of the site, then Forecasts, then UK Region and Location forecasts. Takes you to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html which has the information you’re looking for – although it’s not labelled ‘monthly outlook’; it is just the section with forecasts for the next month. Collated into one page here:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

  164. Roger Knights says:

    AugustFalcon says:
    November 28, 2010 at 4:46 pm

    Peter H says:
    November 28, 2010 at 3:11 pm
    November is in the Autumn.
    Winter starts on Dec 1st ends on February 28th (as does a winter forecast).

    Over here in the Colonies Winter usually starts around Dec 21st or 22nd.

    “Meteorological winter” starts Dec. 1. The other seasons are similarly shifted, as is the start of the “meteorological year” (to Dec. 1).

  165. Dave says:

    Steve E>

    “If the Met Office still makes a seasonal forecast but doesn’t publish it who is it for? Why would they keep a secret seasonal forecast?”

    It’s not secret, as such. They found out, though, that anything the publish, regardless of attached caveats – and there may have been a deficiency in that regard at times – will be treated as gospel by some. That doesn’t mean they need to stop producing their long-range forecasts; on the contrary, they need to keep working on them. The way to do this is to do your best to produce an accurate forecast, wait to see what really happens, and then try and work out why your modelling was inaccurate.

    A lot of damage has been done to the reputation of bodies like the Met Office by a small cohort of politicised climate scientists in the ranks, but the vast majority of work done there has nothing to do with climate and everything to do with weather. The meteorologists are just trying hard to predict the weather, with understandably limited success, and although their results may be spun for political purposes, there is no reason to doubt their integrity.

    The really interesting part of this whole discussion has been barely touched on. As I understand it, the long-range temperature map which seems so obviously erroneous – particularly in the DM’s misreading of it – is effectively an intermediate stage of the modelling process, providing an input for further modelling. The further modelling, despite the odd intermediate result, seems to be reasonably accurate.

  166. SteveE says:

    Kate says:
    November 29, 2010 at 3:00 am

    Buried in an otherwise drab study on paleo – and proxy methods, Dr. Bogataj admitted to what skeptics have long been saying and what the ice core proxy data shows: that rises in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are proven to mostly, if not always, occur after rises in temperature.

    ————————–

    Come on Kate, it’s widely documented that CO2 lags temperature baed on the ice core record. The reason is simply:

    “When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth’s orbit. The warming causes the oceans to give up CO2. The CO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere, spreading warming throughout the planet”

    To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things:

    •Deglaciation is not initiated by CO2 but by orbital cycles
    •CO2 amplifies the warming which cannot be explained by orbital cycles alone
    •CO2 spreads warming throughout the planet

  167. Pamela Gray says:

    ENSO conditions, depending on the action of each type of condition, naturally produces heat in one place, and cold in another. So I would agree with SteveE that just because it was cold in [insert country like Britain], doesn’t mean it was cold everywhere else. Where Steve and I disagree is that normal variation can cause cold temps to be more dominate one year, and then under the same conditions but different year, can cause hot temps to be more dominate. Which means that if this does end up to be the hottest, second hottest third hottest, etc global month, year, decade, etc, I am not getting my knickers in a twist over it. A global average is one of the most meaningless statistics in climate science and should only be discussed in the course of making jokes about it.

  168. David Rosser says:

    The reason for the Met Office’s non-self-fulfilling prophecy lies in its idiosyncratic interpretation of the scientific method:

    Daily Telegraph 6 Feb. 2009:

    “The forecast is put together using observations of sea temperatures in the preceding summer, data from the Met Office’s northern hemisphere weather modelling systems, those of the French national weather service and that of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in Reading. That is then assessed alongside predictions about the North Atlantic Oscillation – a measurement of pressure patterns and seasonal variations in the jet stream across the Atlantic. THE MET OFFICE THEN RAISES THE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION FOR THE WINTER BY INCLUDING THE LONG-TERM WARMING SIGNAL CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE.”

    Brilliant. And now for our forecast for 2060….

  169. oldgifford says:

    “In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent. Not surprising when a petaflop computer is available to do all the calculations.”

    I don’t know which part of the UK you live in but ask my missus about watching the local morning forecast and putting out her washing. Expletives and other such Anglo Saxon expressions fill the air when the unpredicted rain comes or when she doesn’t do the washing because they have forecast heavy showers and all we get is sunshine.

    We do like cycling so tend to look regularly at the weather forecasts and we have noted how inaccurate these have become since the summer – for Bristol UK

  170. SteveE says:

    Pamela Gray says:
    November 29, 2010 at 7:04 am
    ENSO conditions, depending on the action of each type of condition, naturally produces heat in one place, and cold in another. So I would agree with SteveE that just because it was cold in [insert country like Britain], doesn’t mean it was cold everywhere else. Where Steve and I disagree is that normal variation can cause cold temps to be more dominate one year, and then under the same conditions but different year, can cause hot temps to be more dominate. Which means that if this does end up to be the hottest, second hottest third hottest, etc global month, year, decade, etc, I am not getting my knickers in a twist over it. A global average is one of the most meaningless statistics in climate science and should only be discussed in the course of making jokes about it.

    ———————–

    I would actually agree with you that the natural variation could cause the same conditions to perhaps be cold one year and then warm the next. I think where we differ is on our opinions on CO2 effect, but as you’ve said in the past, it doesn’t matter how much that effect is, it’s still cold here (please correct me if I mis-quote you). I also don’t like the alarmist propaganda that you sometimes see on the tv and in the papers, however I do believe there is sufficient evidence to suggest that CO2 is causing global warming. What you do about it or what effect it’ll have is beyond my understanding. I try not to get my knickers in a twist though!

  171. Enneagram says:

    British have been always good comedians. You just don’t understand them; that was an intelligent joke.

  172. Ulric Lyons says:

    @rbateman says:
    November 28, 2010 at 5:23 pm

    “Talk about jumping out of a burning apartment and into the icy waters.
    Maybe they could get a good deal on shopping the Met Supercomputer on EBay, it’s clearly not working for them.”

    Its G.I.G.O. Don`t blame the tool !

  173. Enneagram says:

    Climate can dramatically change in a short time:
    Confirmation of the rapid freezing by paleomagnetism
    http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=12219

  174. Tenuc says:

    This is the headline in today’s Daily Express, “-20c – Wrap up warm… temperatures are about to plunge even lower”.

    http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/ourpaper/view/2010-11-29

    Current temperature at 17:15hr is -2.4c, with a minimum over the last few days of -5.3c and 1.4c max – looks like global warming is really taking of here!

    Meanwhile the sun seems reluctant to come out of it’s slumber, with La Nina continuing to prevail. My guess is for another NH winter like the one we had last year, which should put a damper on the rantings of the CAGW fanatics.

  175. TomRude says:

    anna v says:
    November 28, 2010 at 8:54 pm
    Just to make the northern people jealous and keep a perspective that weather is chaotic, in Greece we are having the warmest November for decades. It is 21 degrees day and night outside, all due to southern winds which bring air from Africa.

    Five day fore cast of the week gives more of the same, with a bit of cooling at night (12-16C minimums) some nights. In Crete they have 27 C maximum.

    =====

    Anna v, a satellite image shows that the huge MPH anticyclones that are bringing cold to western Europe is advecting lots of warm air from the mediterranean on its front and that Greece is right on this path now.
    http://comprendre.meteofrance.com/pedagogique/experts?67024.path=coinexpertsanimationsatellite%252Fimgsatccgf%252FZONE_EUROPE

  176. Mark says:

    David W said

    The BBC weather forecast for Dublin today (Mon 29th) says a minimum of 0 degC (from the Met office).

    The current reading at Dublin airport, only 5 miles north and a similar distance from the coast at 6:00am GMT is -7 degC.

    How many protesters in Dublin this morning? Though it would probably take a lot of “campfires” to raise the temperature the whole city by 7C.

  177. P WIlson says:

    Well, you just never know. Jack Frost may disappear and we may have a heatwave like in Cancun by mid-december to january. If so i’m getting my swimming costume out and heading straight for Durness to cool down

  178. AT says:

    Met Office forecasts are warmist wishlists – barbecue summers, mild winters – they have been wrong on every single seasonal forecast in the last 3 years, and always in the warm direction. They have become an expensive joke, and it is about time that they were investigated.

  179. Roy says:

    @ john edmondson

    “In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent. ”

    No it is not! On Saturday I posted a message to WUWT about a journey I made the day before from South Wales to Exeter and back again. The Met Office did not forecast snow for either South Wales or southwest England on television on Thursday night or on their website on Friday morning. In the afternoon blizzards started in both South Wales and southwest England and there was a 26 mile traffic jam west of the Severn Bridge.

    That is by no means an isolated instance. Earlier this year Bornemouth launched its own weather service because it blamed the Met Office for ‘disastrous’ predictions which cost the town millions of pounds in lost income. Bournemouth would not have gone to all that trouble just because of one bad and inaccurate forescast.

    Bournemouth launches its own weather service to combat ‘disastrous’ Met Office predictions
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1280181/Met-Office-blunders-prompt-Bournemouth-launch-weather-service.html#ixzz16hgJMaUB

  180. Billy Liar says:

    Dave says:
    November 29, 2010 at 6:56 am

    That doesn’t mean they need to stop producing their long-range forecasts; on the contrary, they need to keep working on them.

    Here is the UKMO forecast for the remainder of the winter 2009/10, issued 31 Dec 2009:

    For the rest of winter, over northern Europe including the UK, the chance of colder conditions is now 45%; there is a 30% chance of average and a 25% chance of milder conditions.

    What conceivable use is that to anyone? Predictions are only any good if they are useful. Such nebulous projections as the one above are wholly worthless (and as a benefit to those making them – completely accurate; whatever happens they are not wrong).

    The UKMO and other climate prognosticators should keep their prognostications to themselves until they are able to predict with 95%+ accuracy.

  181. Joe Spencer says:

    Acc. Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University :- “All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”

    The Met Office should stick to forecasting weather, which in this satellite age is now relatively easy. You see on a satellite what’s coming . It’s just a case of predicting which way it’ll move.
    Climate projection on the other hand, is more akin to witchcraft and should be left to the specialist practioners of such.

  182. stephen richards says:

    If you found my web link to the monthly forecast from earlier in this piece you will already have noted how the Met Off does their forecasts and I quote

    “This cold weather is likely to keep us guessing, especially in the run-up to Christmas, so come back for an update next week”

    You see! you knew all along didn’t you. “guessing”.

  183. stephen richards says:

    The best way to deal with the Met off and UEA is to privatize them both. Sell them off and let them stand on their computer models. Now that would really save your economy UK. That would give more nurses to your rubbish NHS and more teachers to your rubbish education system. BUT at least you won’t have the worst met off in the world.

  184. stephen richards says:

    SteveE says:
    November 29, 2010 at 7:30 am

    You must share “that sufficient evidence” with us all. We have been searching for decades and can’t find it. Please write us your evidence asap here. I’m looking forward to it.

  185. stephen richards says:

    David Rosser says:
    November 29, 2010 at 7:08 am ““The forecast is put together using observations of sea temperatures in the preceding summer, data from the Met Office’s northern hemisphere weather modelling systems, those of the French national weather service and that of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in Reading.

    Bizarre that, according to the French they put theirs together using the UK model ?

  186. stephen richards says:

    To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things

    You have demonstrated a complete lack of any knowledge. Just how are the Milakovitch cycles driven again? BY CO² ???

  187. stephen richards says:

    Dave says:
    November 29, 2010 at 6:56 am

    You need to go back and read the press anouncement from the MO of a year or 2 ago when they said that their new multimillion pound supre computer and high resolution model will provide both more accurate monthly, seasonal and yearly forecast but also climate forecast to the year dot. You are wrong.!!

  188. Derryman says:

    I was just about to give off about the wrong spelling of Lough Fea, ( Loch is the Scottish spelling) but I see that the error comes from the Met Office press release. Typical, just typical.

    BTW drove past there earlier this evening -6c on the car thermometer!

  189. schumpeter says:

    Well, no, new records have NOT been set unless you count about 20 years as for ever. It’s unusual but by no means unknown. In other words, this is a cold spell. In winters you get cold spells, some colder than others. This tells you nothing about global warming.

    It tells you nothing unless you take into account the warm spells we’ve been having as well. And the warm spells happening elsewhere in the world.

    Suggestion: find out the meanings of ‘global’, ‘average’, ‘climate’ and ‘weather’.

  190. Tom W. says:

    SteveE says Nov 29 @ 5:06 am
    Didn’t they have to import snow for the Winter Olympics last year?
    Just because we had a few cold weeks doesn’t mean globally it was a cold year.

    Most of the alpine events were at Whistler, north of Vancouver, and they had an all-time record snowfall of 32 feet to the end of January, 50% above normal. Some events were held at Grouse Mountain, which is on the Coast, virtually in the City of Vancouver. Warm rainy conditions are not uncommon at any time.

  191. Gordon Johnstone says:

    The Met Office only got the money to buy that supercomputer so they could calculate fallout in event of a nuclear war. Now these people are not capable of putting out a weather forecast without political bias so perhaps that task, and the supercomputer, should be reallocated to the UKAEA instead.

  192. Ed Zuiderwijk says:

    Yesterday they still proclaimed on the radio here that the MET had said that in spite of
    the cold spell the world was still in for the warmest year on record.

    If I correctly remember the law of averages that means that this year’s Christmas will be boiling hot. Be prepared! Get your Hawaii shirts and the tanning cream ready.

  193. David W says:

    So does all this mean the Met Office is adjusting upwards its short-term temperature forecasts to account for “predicted global warming”?

    If so, does that mean their temperature forecasting over the last few years has been alarmingly above actual readings?

  194. Crossopter says:

    Stephen richards says at 1:43 (and subsequently):

    Having a bad day, Stephen? The Scottish education system is generally excellent, as are standards throughout the UK-wide NHS, but this is not the forum to petulantly air your opinions on irrelevent matters, however misinformed they are.

    I suggest you go stick the kettle on for a nice relaxing and restorative cuppa’.

    ;-)

  195. SteveE says:

    stephen richards says:
    November 29, 2010 at 1:52 pm
    To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things

    You have demonstrated a complete lack of any knowledge. Just how are the Milakovitch cycles driven again? BY CO² ???

    ———————————

    No, Milakovitch cycles aren’t driven by CO2 as my comment states. I suggest you Google them if you have problems understanding what they are.

    If you have any questions just let me know and I’ll try and explain it in terms you can understand.

  196. SteveE says:

    Tom W. says:
    November 29, 2010 at 2:57 pm
    SteveE says Nov 29 @ 5:06 am
    Didn’t they have to import snow for the Winter Olympics last year?
    Just because we had a few cold weeks doesn’t mean globally it was a cold year.

    Most of the alpine events were at Whistler, north of Vancouver, and they had an all-time record snowfall of 32 feet to the end of January, 50% above normal. Some events were held at Grouse Mountain, which is on the Coast, virtually in the City of Vancouver. Warm rainy conditions are not uncommon at any time.

    ——————————-

    “The Olympic plans at Cypress were undercut by the warmest January on record, which kept snowmaking to a minimum. According to Environment Canada, the average temperature this year was 7.2 degrees Celsius (45 Fahrenheit), when it normally is 3.3 C (38). From Dec. 1 to Jan. 31, the area received 79 percent of its usual precipitation, but most of it was rain.”

    Like I said, just because you had a few cold weeks and a big dump of snow doesn’t mean it was a cold winter.

  197. TomRude says:

    SteveE you forget Vancouverites froze their bottoms the weeks after the Olympics…

  198. Javelin says:

    This winter will kill climate science

  199. “When I pointed out how convenient it is that one can have it both ways – i.e. if it gets hotter it’s proof of AGW, if it gets colder it’s proof of – err – AGW – she glazed over. It was then that I diplomatically changed the subject.”

    Erm… you do know that “global warming” has *never* meant that everywhere in the globe gets hotter? I’m not exactly a zealous follower of the literature, but even I’ve known for getting on for a decade what the models predicted for the UK: warmer, wetter summers and colder winters.

    An overall rise in average (mean) temperature doesn’t mean that everywhere gets hot.

    Whether you think the theory is correct or not, if you’re going to evaluate a theory based on what it predicts, getting the “what it predicts” correct is really rather basic.

    In fact, your friend was wrong anyway: although there are early (very early) signs of changes in the way the Gulf Stream behaves, it’s not “switched off” and those changes aren’t enough to account for our current snow. We’ve had occasional cold snaps for pretty-much the whole of human history – it’s just what “weather” is.

    Anyone – on either side of the debate – who points to three days’ weather and says it’s “proof” or “caused by…” is either uninformed, ignorant, stupid or polemicising. The first three are forgiveable: The third isn’t.

    Our present cold snap proves nothing, either way. Come back in 50 years and tell me what the weather has been like every winter, and you’ll have something that indicates a hypothesis is correct or not.

  200. TomRude says:

    Ian Betterridge writes:

    “I’ve known for getting on for a decade what the models predicted for the UK: warmer, wetter summers and colder winters. ”

    Really, perhaps you should have informed British newspapers who quoting the MET Office were plastering that we should say good bye to snow in UK winters…

  201. Richard Sharpe says:

    Ian Betteridge says on December 1, 2010 at 2:36 am

    Erm… you do know that “global warming” has *never* meant that everywhere in the globe gets hotter? I’m not exactly a zealous follower of the literature, but even I’ve known for getting on for a decade what the models predicted for the UK: warmer, wetter summers and colder winters.

    Can you tell us how the evil CO2 that humans have been emitting can both lead to warmer summers and colder winters.

    I promise I won’t look at your contortions.

  202. TomRude says:

    The BBC international news showed Venice under water and blamed it on… climate change! After that seeing the UK under a blanket of snow certainly made for a good laugh at the BBC’s expense.
    Hope everyone stays safe…

Comments are closed.