Have a look at these two juxtaposed news clips from the UK Daily Mail, one from October 28th, 2010, the other from November 28th, 2010.
and here’s today’s news:
Now have a look at what the Met Office issued on 10-28-2010:
That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.
A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.
Anybody know where to find it?
In other news, new records have been set.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101128.html
Big chill breaks November temperature records
28 November 2010
Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country. Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea.
Scotland recorded minimum temperature of -15.3 °C at Loch Glascarnoch, whilst England recorded -13.5 °C at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire.
The UK’s lowest ever recorded temperature in November was – 23.3 °C recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands, on November 14, 1919.
The cold and snow is expected to continue to affect many parts of the UK today and through the coming week. Met Office forecasters are warning of further severe frosts, snow and icy conditions. The north-easterly winds, with a significant wind chill will also make it feel bitterly cold as daytime temperatures struggle to rise above freezing.
Met Office warnings and advisories of severe weather for snow and icy roads are in force for parts of northern and eastern England, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further snowfall is expected through Scotland and the north east on Sunday.
Met Office Chief Forecaster, Steve Willington said: “The very low overnight temperatures we have seen are likely to be repeated through the coming week as the cold and snowy weather continues. As winds increase into next week, it will feel increasingly cold with a significant wind chill to contend with by day and night.”
“Icy roads and snow will be a risk for many, and the public are advised to stay up to date with the forecast to make sure they have the latest information.”
Given that the Met office has meant to predict things correctly, and how they meant to really temper their Global Warming outlook, and how they meant to not inject politics into forecasting, I hereby suggest they change their name to…
The Meant Office.
Clive Crook(sic) has the answer to …. something.
…-
“Stop talking and start taxing carbon
By Clive Crook”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43d235dc-fb23-11df-b576-00144feab49a.html
(That’s all one can put up, says FT: “Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.”)
CO2 should be blamed for Met’s Office inaccuracy …
On the BBC website homepage, on their London weather forecast, they used to say “in Association with the MET.”
Yesterday, visiting there for the first time in a long time, I noticed that it only read “In Association With.”
Today it doesn’t even say that. So when even the UK’s Pravda is backing away from these clowns, you know that things are “worse than we thought.”
Amazing how far down the tubes the UK has fallen…
RE: That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.
At the Met site I did some digging. They have “Weather Call” which will send forecasts to a cell phone, PDA, etc. The PDF on “Public Services” indicated an up to 30 day forecast as “Further Forecast”. A search of the site did not provide a location for such.
Looking at their regular UK forecast page:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
in the lower right there is a frame: Weather forecast: UK
It contains tabs for 1-2 days , 3 -5 days , 6 – 15 days, and 16 – 30 days.
Content of 6 – 15 is:
Content of 16 – 30 is:
Having just driven back from France, with no mishaps, where there was just as much freezing weather, including snow, my reaction to the UK met office is blunt.
Please do not preach to us.
You sit in your ivory towers with your super-expensive computers, and, year by year, your forecast of the UK climate is always wrong, and is getting worse.
I, for one, see no point in continuing to finance you if you persist in providing weather data based on a teenager’s application of the interweb, for your reliance on so-called ‘climate forecast computers’ has come to zero.
Unfortunately, I am forced to pay various taxes of which a pittance comes to you.
The article says that the “prediction” is on the Met at:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/winter.html
Bye the Way, thanks for the website. I am HEARTILY sick of the Anthropogenic Global Warmists who have predicted every disaster known to the human race – and then come up with this or that excuse when Nature shows they made a colossal mistake. Keep up the good work.
According to Vicky Pope of the Met Office, reported in eg UK Daily Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8159991/Global-warming-has-slowed-because-of-pollution.html) , the warming by CO2 is still racing ahead but has been slowed/masked by dastardly cooling from aerosol pollution emitted by Asian economies. Warming trend (they love linear don’t they) over the last decade in a range
2010 is still set to be 2nd warmest she says, once they have corrected recent under recording of sea temps. And the warmest decade, so there!
Globullwarming is still alive and kicking. ( Freezing here in east Sussex, with some snow, that our houses aren’t really built for…)
Well, the Norwegian equivalent of the UK Met Office, met.no has not stopped issuing seasonal forecasts although the track record is much like in the UK.
For the period December 2010 – February 2011, met.no predicts an impressive 2.5C above normal (1960-1990) for my area. This is a bold prediction since the 20 day average is currently something like 3C below normal.
But then again, it isn’t too surprising, considering who makes these predictions for met.no. It is well known to be Rasmus Benestad of RealClimate fame.
H.R., the Weather Channel provides UK weather at uk.weather.com, but frankly it’s no better than the Met Office at weather prediction. In fairness, the dynamics in play in the atmosphere are rather complex in the North-West corner of Europe, particularly over the UK and Ireland, and even accurate short-term prediction is exceedingly difficult.
Spend a few weeks checking out http://www.sat24.com. The weather systems here are sometimes mind-boggling.
Global Warming is one huge tangle of contradictions,
Climatic temperatures rise and fall all the time everywhere, I haven’t seen any evidence of temperatures spiraling out of control one way or the other, globally or locally and this is the basis of all the “global warming” arguments,
It’s about time these protagonists in the media wind their necks in and hold their hands up when they get it wrong!
Eat some humble pie!! 🙂
Met Office forecast for this winter can be safely ignored. In fact, their forecast for any season/month can be safely ignored.
And for short-term forecasts, look out the window.
oops, meant to add the reported trend figure of 0.05 C to my comment. Sorry. Was top end of the range quoted, I’ve mislaid the lower figure, think it was 0.013 C
The most frequently occurring average winter temperature for UK -CET during La Nina winters has been in the range of 5 to 6 degrees C[ occured 7 times ]. The mathematical average of all La Nina winters is about 4.3 C [4.7 C if looking at last 7 La Nina winters only] .The average of all winter temperatures for the last 61 years was about 4.25 C. So 2011 winter could be warmer than last winter’s 2.43 C and could even be 4- 5 C if the history of the past La Nina winters is any guide . If this were to happen ,this would represent about a couple of degrees warmer than last winter’s 2.43 C . Perhaps this where the Met Office may be coming from .
FLASHBACK
————————————–
UK winter snow since 2007
More to come?
—————
And the realisation from the Independent 10 years on.
“Earliest white winter for two decades could go on for 10 days”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/earliest-white-winter-for-two-decades-could-go-on-for-10-days-2144998.html
Met Office Seasonal Failures
25 September 2008
The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080925.html
25 Feb 2009
Coldest winter for a decade – Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090225.html
—–
30 April 2009
The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090430.html
Met Office cools summer forecast
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8173533.stm
—-
2009
Met office forecast a mild to average winter
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html
Met Office – 5 January 2010
“The current cold weather started in mid December and it has been the most prolonged spell of freezing conditions across the UK since December 1981.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100105.html
“Britain’s freezing weather: worst snow for 50 years”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6939124/Britains-freezing-weather-worst-snow-for-50-years-paralyses-transport-networks.html
Rather nice animation by the BBC about the jetstream. Believe it or not, no reference to climate change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11851728
Awww…. -10C equals 14F. But 40cm of snow equals about 15-16 inches which is significant in Minnesota. That much snow can slow traffic until plowed & salted (if there are plows & salt), and is good for skiing.
If the Met Office would have been a private company they would have:
A. gone bankrupt
B. made excellent weather forecasts
Unfortunately Met Office is a Government organization that has been ordered to support the party line of the Global Agenda.
That’s why their management is rewarded with exorbitant bonus payments for what really is a bad performance. In other words a reward for selling their soul and their scientific integrity.
Just like the BBC, CNN, NOAA, NASA/GISS, KNMI, DEUTSCHE WETTERDIENST….
Well, we all know the list.
The worst part is that we are still denying there is a conspiracy going on here.
H.R. says:
November 28, 2010 at 2:09 pm
I’d like to see some comments from the Brits as to what they use for an alternative source to the Met Office forecasts.
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I use Joe Bastardi. Who forecast the current cold, followed by a non-cold winter in UK.
stephen richards – I haven’t seen Joe Bastardi’s prediction for Europe , but the only parts of NA that he predicts warmer than average temps for is the southern third or so . He calls for below average temps and above average snowfall from the NW all the way to N England . Things look look shakey for the Ohio valley as well . I’m assuming that the weather will be cold and snowy for Canada to boot .
Am I correct in recalling the Met Office boss receiving some millions in bonuses earlier this year?
Our poor poor cousins in the formerly Great Britain. But don’t worry, us Aussies will catch up to you soon, afterall, our PM is a Welsh woman.
I find this forecast a little surprising myself with the strong Arctic Oscillation…
The Met office admitted defeat a while ago. From this BBC story
By my calculations 0.05C per year amounts to 5C per 100 years. Their testimony before the House of Commons claimed that they use the same code for their climate models as for their forecasts so that means that all their 100 year climate model forecasts should be reduced by 5C.
November is in the Autumn.
Winter starts on Dec 1st ends on February 28th (as does a winter forecast).
So, it makes no sense for the gallery here to start crowing about a failed winter forecast on today, November the 28th.
[Note: That applies to the Northern Hemisphere. ~dbs, mod.]