By Steve Goddard
- Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists
Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.
The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.
Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).
If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.
Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.
Well, actually not.
“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.
As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.
The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The truth is inconvenient.
It has been described thousand times, in thousands of details, how we are being manipulated by thousands of lies.
Not that pointing out these lies is useless, no. It is a noble endeavor.
But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?
Steve (is it ok if I call you Steve?), please don’t take this the wrong way. Are you related to the Space Program Goddard? After which the GISS is named. And are you just a little bit ticked that this Hansen hack has made an abortion of the temperature data? I’d be too. BRING IT ON!
Ralph Dwyer
The early Romans had some fine punishments. It had to do with lions…
Is this not a case of never mind the reality, appeal to authority & keep claiming it’s worse than we thought? Good old Vladimir Ilych Ulyanov, “if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth”!
“Well, actually not.”
Actually, yes. The Guardian article states the criterion Hansen is using to say there was a record high:
“they suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean,”
and according to Fig 9 of Hansen’s coming paper, that’s a record. And that was the April figure – it was 0,67 in May and 0,66 in June.
Watch that plume of cool water off the coast of South America bloom and spread. It’s currently 3C below average! It looks like this La Nina might have legs.
In the mean time a big Arctic low is forecast for the Hudson Bay which is definitely unusual for July.
A harbinger of things to come next winter???
HELP!
HELP!
The logic and integrity circuits have now completely gone bandit at the Daily Telegraph!
They’ve printed this without any form of debate or comment…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7914611/Met-Office-report-global-warming-evidence-is-unmistakable.html
HELP!
I’m boiling and heating up with anger & frustration…..the world is getting hotter!
Must be all the stupidity that I’m going to have to pay for.
Grrr!
Nick,
Are you saying that Hansen’s data proves Hansen’s theories? If I refereed the soccer matches I coach, no doubt the team would be undefeated.
Did you miss the UAH graph in the article? HadCrut also has 1998 hotter.
Ralph,
I don’t have anything to do with NASA – though I do support good relations with my Muslim neighbours. (NASA’s primary mission under Obama.)
Remember everybody… cooling is globally local, warming is locally global. Also, cool is “the weather”, warm is “the climate”. These two simple rules will help make perfect sense of 25 years of catastrophic predictions.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume.
Q. If telling the truth is a defense against libel, what is telling untruths a defense against?
A. Loss of funding.
…though I do support good relations with my Muslim neighbours.
I work in Iraq and I have a *great* rapport with them. Can I get a chunk of Hansen’s budget?
But shouldn’t the hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm. Isn’t this contrast between temperatures the driving force behind hurricanes. At least that used to be the truth. If Hansen keep predicting intense hurricane seasons, he must be right sometimes because there is a natural variability that will eventually play into his hands.
[snip – though I somehow doubt you were expecting otherwise ~ Evan]
There’s too much riding on the carbon credits system so winning the PR war after the science has been won is still a major struggle. The leftwing media are all on board and in Britain there is no such thing as a Conservative party any longer. This Cameron fella not only endorses a carbon as a tradable commodity but this week also lent his support to Hamas and for Turkey, a country in Asia, to join the EU. If that’s his position then he is also lying about Britain staying out of the euro.
The whole government and media is bought and paid for by wealthy backward thinking morons trying to rewind the clock to a time when their power was unchallengeable.
who order the Devil’s Staircase number of hurricanes ib Atlantic ???
@ur momisugly Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland – What you must realise is as well as the scientists getting more and more desperate to prove something that is going to be un-provable for decades to come by the end of this year, the Journo’s that have staked there careers on environmental reporting and more specifically AGW are becoming more and more desperate. With the newspaper industry clinging to life they must feel there jobs are really on the line and having people come and prove that your articles are a joke does not help when you boss is reviewing who may get the push, I will be interested when the financial bit does hit the papers hard who will be the first out the door the writers of balanced articles or the writers that trot out fact sheets sent to them by climate modellers that are debunked in a few months?
It’s the old it must be true its on a peer-reviewed T-shirt, the word investigative has been removed from investigative journalism for most environmental journo’s for years now.
Steven
“Are you saying that Hansen’s data proves Hansen’s theories?”
No, I’m saying that Hansen’s simple arithmetic statement based on the Gistemp record is correct (I’ve checked). You said it was wrong.
Wasn’t last year going to be the worst hurricane season ever? Or did I misinterpret the prediction?
What dataset is Hansen using? Everything I have seen recently says cooler, his says hotter. Oh! Of course, I’m looking at a “globally local” dataset….
Silly me.
“….they [Hansen et al.] suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean…”
Can we take that as official — I mean has the high priest spoken?
Does that mean that he is over 90% sure that over 50% of that 0.65C temperature rise (0.325C) since 1965 (the mid-point, i.e. 45 years) is due to human caused GHGs?
Can we state categorically that human GHGs are over 90% likely to cause 0.7C – 0.14C temperature rise by 2110 (ignoring for simplicity the diminishing effect of the monotonic increasing CO2)?
Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that’s all there is my friends, then let’s keep dancing
Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
If that’s all there is
Alan the Brit says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:47 am
“………….Good old Vladimir Ilych Ulyanov, “if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth”!”
I remember someone else saying, “Be sure your sins will find you out.”
I was very surprised here in Philly that the MSM did not crank up the Doomsday schtick since we have been having a hot July. Instead, they proclaimed we are half a degree cooler than the hottest July on record which was in the 1870s. So with all this global warming, why isn’t it 0.7C hotter than the 1870s?
“…. over 90% likely to cause 0.7C – 01.4C temperature rise by 2110…”
As pointed out on another thread Australia is also getting much hotter. It has something to do with extrapolation and adjustments which apparently are just different isotopes of carbon.
The insane are running our asylum too. One state premier is closing down part of a coal fired power station and taking up the slack with wind power. He is obviously unaware of the one for one rule regarding wind; for every megawatt of installed capacity of wind you need one megawatt of baseload thermal. Trouble is he is up for re-election and needs the green vote.
It no longer matters what you can do for your country; think only what the taxpayer can do for you. Somehow when the higher utility charges come to pass people will think differently.
londo says:
July 29, 2010 at 1:24 am
But shouldn’t the hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm. Isn’t this contrast between temperatures the driving force behind hurricanes. At least that used to be the truth. If Hansen keep predicting intense hurricane seasons, he must be right sometimes because there is a natural variability that will eventually play into his hands.
It seems to be a pattern.
I would like to designate this the “Stopped Clock” method.
Not a single prediction has been even remotely close to reality, Hansen’s efforts have been notably poor with respect to temperature, we are below even his maximum CO2 reduced prediction/projection. A dice roll would produce better results.