Reviewing Last Month's Forecasts of Doom

By Steve Goddard

Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists

Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.

Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.

The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.

Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).

If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.

Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.

Well, actually not.

“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”

Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.

As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.

The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.

These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?

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110 thoughts on “Reviewing Last Month's Forecasts of Doom

  1. It has been described thousand times, in thousands of details, how we are being manipulated by thousands of lies.
    Not that pointing out these lies is useless, no. It is a noble endeavor.
    But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?

  2. Steve (is it ok if I call you Steve?), please don’t take this the wrong way. Are you related to the Space Program Goddard? After which the GISS is named. And are you just a little bit ticked that this Hansen hack has made an abortion of the temperature data? I’d be too. BRING IT ON!
    Ralph Dwyer

  3. Is this not a case of never mind the reality, appeal to authority & keep claiming it’s worse than we thought? Good old Vladimir Ilych Ulyanov, “if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth”!

  4. “Well, actually not.”
    Actually, yes. The Guardian article states the criterion Hansen is using to say there was a record high:
    they suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean,
    and according to Fig 9 of Hansen’s coming paper, that’s a record. And that was the April figure – it was 0,67 in May and 0,66 in June.

  5. Watch that plume of cool water off the coast of South America bloom and spread. It’s currently 3C below average! It looks like this La Nina might have legs.
    In the mean time a big Arctic low is forecast for the Hudson Bay which is definitely unusual for July.
    A harbinger of things to come next winter???

  6. HELP!
    HELP!
    The logic and integrity circuits have now completely gone bandit at the Daily Telegraph!
    They’ve printed this without any form of debate or comment…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7914611/Met-Office-report-global-warming-evidence-is-unmistakable.html
    HELP!
    I’m boiling and heating up with anger & frustration…..the world is getting hotter!
    Must be all the stupidity that I’m going to have to pay for.
    Grrr!

  7. Nick,
    Are you saying that Hansen’s data proves Hansen’s theories? If I refereed the soccer matches I coach, no doubt the team would be undefeated.
    Did you miss the UAH graph in the article? HadCrut also has 1998 hotter.

  8. Ralph,
    I don’t have anything to do with NASA – though I do support good relations with my Muslim neighbours. (NASA’s primary mission under Obama.)

  9. Remember everybody… cooling is globally local, warming is locally global. Also, cool is “the weather”, warm is “the climate”. These two simple rules will help make perfect sense of 25 years of catastrophic predictions.

  10. These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume.
    Q. If telling the truth is a defense against libel, what is telling untruths a defense against?
    A. Loss of funding.
    …though I do support good relations with my Muslim neighbours.
    I work in Iraq and I have a *great* rapport with them. Can I get a chunk of Hansen’s budget?

  11. But shouldn’t the hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm. Isn’t this contrast between temperatures the driving force behind hurricanes. At least that used to be the truth. If Hansen keep predicting intense hurricane seasons, he must be right sometimes because there is a natural variability that will eventually play into his hands.

  12. There’s too much riding on the carbon credits system so winning the PR war after the science has been won is still a major struggle. The leftwing media are all on board and in Britain there is no such thing as a Conservative party any longer. This Cameron fella not only endorses a carbon as a tradable commodity but this week also lent his support to Hamas and for Turkey, a country in Asia, to join the EU. If that’s his position then he is also lying about Britain staying out of the euro.
    The whole government and media is bought and paid for by wealthy backward thinking morons trying to rewind the clock to a time when their power was unchallengeable.

  13. @ Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland – What you must realise is as well as the scientists getting more and more desperate to prove something that is going to be un-provable for decades to come by the end of this year, the Journo’s that have staked there careers on environmental reporting and more specifically AGW are becoming more and more desperate. With the newspaper industry clinging to life they must feel there jobs are really on the line and having people come and prove that your articles are a joke does not help when you boss is reviewing who may get the push, I will be interested when the financial bit does hit the papers hard who will be the first out the door the writers of balanced articles or the writers that trot out fact sheets sent to them by climate modellers that are debunked in a few months?
    It’s the old it must be true its on a peer-reviewed T-shirt, the word investigative has been removed from investigative journalism for most environmental journo’s for years now.

  14. Steven
    “Are you saying that Hansen’s data proves Hansen’s theories?”
    No, I’m saying that Hansen’s simple arithmetic statement based on the Gistemp record is correct (I’ve checked). You said it was wrong.

  15. Wasn’t last year going to be the worst hurricane season ever? Or did I misinterpret the prediction?
    What dataset is Hansen using? Everything I have seen recently says cooler, his says hotter. Oh! Of course, I’m looking at a “globally local” dataset….
    Silly me.

  16. “….they [Hansen et al.] suggest that the Earth has been 0.65C warmer over the past 12 months than during the 1951 to 1980 mean…”
    Can we take that as official — I mean has the high priest spoken?
    Does that mean that he is over 90% sure that over 50% of that 0.65C temperature rise (0.325C) since 1965 (the mid-point, i.e. 45 years) is due to human caused GHGs?
    Can we state categorically that human GHGs are over 90% likely to cause 0.7C – 0.14C temperature rise by 2110 (ignoring for simplicity the diminishing effect of the monotonic increasing CO2)?
    Is that all there is, is that all there is
    If that’s all there is my friends, then let’s keep dancing
    Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
    If that’s all there is

  17. Alan the Brit says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:47 am
    “………….Good old Vladimir Ilych Ulyanov, “if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth”!”
    I remember someone else saying, “Be sure your sins will find you out.”

  18. I was very surprised here in Philly that the MSM did not crank up the Doomsday schtick since we have been having a hot July. Instead, they proclaimed we are half a degree cooler than the hottest July on record which was in the 1870s. So with all this global warming, why isn’t it 0.7C hotter than the 1870s?

  19. “…. over 90% likely to cause 0.7C – 01.4C temperature rise by 2110…”

  20. As pointed out on another thread Australia is also getting much hotter. It has something to do with extrapolation and adjustments which apparently are just different isotopes of carbon.
    The insane are running our asylum too. One state premier is closing down part of a coal fired power station and taking up the slack with wind power. He is obviously unaware of the one for one rule regarding wind; for every megawatt of installed capacity of wind you need one megawatt of baseload thermal. Trouble is he is up for re-election and needs the green vote.
    It no longer matters what you can do for your country; think only what the taxpayer can do for you. Somehow when the higher utility charges come to pass people will think differently.

  21. londo says:
    July 29, 2010 at 1:24 am
    But shouldn’t the hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm. Isn’t this contrast between temperatures the driving force behind hurricanes. At least that used to be the truth. If Hansen keep predicting intense hurricane seasons, he must be right sometimes because there is a natural variability that will eventually play into his hands.
    It seems to be a pattern.
    I would like to designate this the “Stopped Clock” method.
    Not a single prediction has been even remotely close to reality, Hansen’s efforts have been notably poor with respect to temperature, we are below even his maximum CO2 reduced prediction/projection. A dice roll would produce better results.

  22. For kicks I checked wikipedia to see if they made any changes relative to these record breaking back to back NOAA announcements. Their satellite graph stops
    just prior to 2010 – figures they’d do something. But it is interesting in that it goes all the way back to the 70’s showing the start of the satellite data and the spike 97-98 which shows what Phil Jones of CRU said “We’ve not been able to find any global warming since 1997” … Hanson’s 30’s to 90’s data switch is hurting them these days.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png
    Also it won’t show up in the averaged July graph plot but the sun’s magnetism index actually dropped back down to “1” again for 2 days last week, followed by 2 days of an index of 2. Our sun is just not capable of breaking records right now.

  23. Steve, a good few years back, during Thatchers time of “hanging loose with an ex U.S. ex-actor” a TV series called “Spitting Image”.
    Try Youtube and Thatcher plus Norman Tebbit………Imagine what they would have done with Hansen, Mann and Jones………I wish!
    La Nina is my sort of Latin Babe!

  24. I think thisarticle ties with my thought on the newer article on science above – the politicization of science leads to this. Science needs to be dispassionate, in order for the human mind to really internalize, cogitate, and change behavior based on external data. In this political noise machine with Murdoch, Fox, and MSNBC making every point a political one it will lead to this, seeing things you want to see or even worse lying about the facts as you would in a political capaign in a newroom and a newspaper. Get real facts and use them, never trust one source, even this one.

  25. I would suggest that using the number of hurricanes as a measure of cylconic activity is not a good choice. I would think that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), is a better measure. I dont have all the figures, but in the North Atlantic for 2005, by this date the ACE value was around 62; average about 100. I have not been able to get the ACE values for 2010 (does anyone have a URL?), but it has to be in single digits; probably around 3.

  26. Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:53 am
    Met Office report global warming evidence is unmistakable
    The Office of ‘Barbeque Summers and Belching Cows Cause Global Warming’ have published their last ditch attempt at convincing the public before they get down to planning a serious boondoggle in Cancun later this year.
    I think their boss still thinks he is working for the World Wildlife Fund.
    It is unmistakeable that the world has warmed since the Little Ice Age and we’re all very grateful. It’s about time they researched their standard excuse of ‘natural variability’ which is trotted out anytime something doesn’t fit the global warming mantra.

  27. The core of AGW is apocalyptic cult thinking. Climate science is just the way to manifest the need for apocalypse.

  28. Could be that Obama desperately needs the tax revenue from cap and tax so he has his minions conjure up demons. React to the slave master not the the conjured demons.

  29. One can always tell their opponents are losing a debate when they resort to arguing semantics.
    Nick Stokes said:

    Steven
    “Are you saying that Hansen’s data proves Hansen’s theories?”
    No, I’m saying that Hansen’s simple arithmetic statement based on the Gistemp record is correct (I’ve checked). You said it was wrong.

    Wow Nick, that really is desperate. Back in early June Hansen was already declaring 2010 would be the “warmest year on record”. How can any responsible objective scientist make such prophetic statements before the data is collected?

  30. Alexander Feht says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:32 am
    It has been described thousand times, in thousands of details, how we are being manipulated by thousands of lies.
    Not that pointing out these lies is useless, no. It is a noble endeavor.
    But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?
    _____________________________________________________
    Introduce them to Madame Guillotine?

  31. “None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.”
    Hmm. I look at those graphs and see several around .2C for the decade. But they are hard to read at that size and without trend lines drawn in.

  32. stevengoddard says:
    July 29, 2010 at 1:01 am
    Ralph,
    I don’t have anything to do with NASA – though I do support good relations with my Muslim neighbours. (NASA’s primary mission under Obama.)

    I think Ralph was asking if you were related to Robert Goddard, the engineer and visionary who invented liquid-fuel rocketry back in the ’20s and ’30s, after whom the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD is named.
    /Mr Lynn

  33. “stevengoddard says:
    July 29, 2010 at 5:05 am
    londo
    Exactly. Venus is uniformly hot and doesn’t have any hurricanes”
    Since it doesn’t have water this seems rather obvious. Jupiter has millenia long hurricanes. All of which is irrelevant…

  34. Jim Cripwell says:
    July 29, 2010 at 3:58 am

    I have not been able to get the ACE values for 2010 (does anyone have a URL?), but it has to be in single digits; probably around 3.

    http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
    According to the above:

    July 28: Current ACE for July in the Northern Hemisphere is 14.2 and consists of Alex, Chanson, Bonnie, and Chanthu. No ACE was recorded in the Eastern Pacific.

    Predictions From NOAA
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure3.gif

  35. A summary of a 10 minute report on the main tv channel in Spain yesterday (TVE-1) during the daily newscast.
    They begin with an account of the current heat wave in Spain, images of people trying to cool themselves in pools, fountains etc.
    Then they go on to say that, if you think this is bad, you should consider the predictions just made by a group of scientist [at some Meteorological institution in Spain]. The predictions of these unnamed scientists are that 50 years from now, in 2060, the temperatures in most of Spain will be 6 degrees C warmer than today. That’s right. More than 1 deg C of warming per decade from now on. They didn’t even say “could” or “might”. No. They said they WILL be that much warmer.
    Then they said that the city of Seville (which has always been one of the hottest places during the summer in Spain) will reach temperatures similar to some places in the hottest African deserts today. They added that Madrid will have temperatures hotter than they are now in Seville. Then they said that rainfall will be reduced by 20-30 percent and that the entire Andalusian region will be a barren desert. The only part of Spain that will remain relatively unscathed is the Balearic islands.
    And then, as a final note, they added that all this need not happen. That it’s entirely up to us whether it happens or not. That it all depends on whether we are willing or not to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent it.
    This kind of mind boggling propaganda is being repeated with increasing shamelessness in the guise of “scientific” findings everywhere. I suppose some people must send them messages protesting such blatant fictions, but you don’t hear those messages. They seem to count on the fact that the majority of the public will take it for granted that if some people labeled as “scientists” said something, it must be true. On July 25, Paul Krugman ran a piece in the NYT titled “Who Cooked the Planet?” where he tries to find the culprit for the recent failure to pass the climate bill. He says it wasn’t the Science, nor the Scientists or the Economists. No, what killed this great legislation was simply “greed and cowardice”. It’s the Exxon Mobiles of this world that exercise brutal control on these matters and hinder such legislation with their infinitely deep pockets. And of course, all the skeptic scientists are in the pay of these industries.

  36. Hansen is sick, and measuring his own rectal temperature. Thinks that every one else is that hot.

  37. Bill Jamison says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:52 am
    The SST anomaly already has Hudson Bay on the cold side of things.
    In addition, the La Nina forms off Africa’s coast.
    Both big oceans, global La Nina.
    The synchronized elevators travel down.

  38. hunter says:
    July 29, 2010 at 4:55 am
    The core of AGW is apocalyptic cult thinking. Climate science is just the way to manifest the need for apocalypse.
    ________________________________________________________
    Boy is that ever the truth: However the people who are actually running the show are the very wealthy bankers and corporate presidents and CEOs. I wish the left would wake up and understand how ther are being manipulated.
    1972 – UN First Earth Summit: as Elaine Dewar wrote in Toronto’s Saturday Night magazine:
    “It is instructive to read Strong’s 1972 Stockholm speech and compare it with the issues of Earth Summit 1992. Strong warned urgently about global warming, the devastation of forests, the loss of biodiversity, polluted oceans, the population time bomb. Then as now, he invited to the conference the brand-new environmental NGOs [non-governmental organizations]: he gave them money to come; they were invited to raise hell at home. After Stockholm, environment issues became part of the administrative framework in Canada, the U.S., Britain, and Europe.”
    1973 book coauthored by Obama’s Science Czar, John Holdern
    “A massive campaign [Global Warming] must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States. De-devolopment means bringing our economic system (especially patterns of consumption) into line with the realities of ecology and the global resource situation. Resources and energy must be diverted from frivolous and wasteful uses in overdeveloped countries to filling the genuine needs of underdeveloped countries.”
    “The need for de-development presents our economists with a major challenge,” they wrote. “They must design a stable, low-consumption economy[ Agenda 21 ] in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than the present one. Redistribution of wealth both within and among nations is absolutely essential, if a decent life is to be provided for every human being.”
    … In the same book.. “The fetus, given the opportunity to develop properly before birth, and given the essential early socializing experiences and sufficient nourishing food during the crucial early years after birth,
    will ultimately develop into a human being….”
    Source: http://grendelreport.posterous.com/obamas-science-czar-advocates-de-developing-t
    Later we find Maurice Strong’s foot prints all over the campaign to lead the world into “Global Governance” Such as UN REFORM – Restructuring for Global Governance
    For anyone who thinks this is not a return to a form of feudalism: disguised as socialism:
    “What unites the many different forms of Socialism.. is the conception that socialism (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) must be handed down to the grateful masses in one form or another, by a ruling elite which is not subject to their control… marxists.org
    And this statement from one of those would be masters:
    David Rockefeller: “We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. . . . It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years.
    But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.http://www.newswithviews.com/Cappadona/heidi5.htm
    That statement is supported by the 2002 Rockefeller autobiography “Memoirs” on page 405:
    “For more than a century ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents… to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as “internationalists and of conspiring with others around the world … If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.
    If you are a socialist I suggest you do some studying on your would be masters. Rockefeller hosts a yearly meeting of the World Bank and his bank, Chase, was the training ground for the World Bank presidents on at least three occasions.
    A place to start:
    leaked draft agreement at Copenhagen hands control to World Bank
    World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programs (SAPs)
    “Today I resigned from the staff of the International Monetary Fund .. To me, resignation is a priceless liberation, for with it I have taken the first big step to that place where I may hope to wash my hands of what in my mind’s eye is the blood of millions of poor and starving peoples. “
    PRESIDENT’S PRIVATE SECTOR SURVEY ON COST CONTROL: …100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their government.

  39. Has anyone bothered to ask, even if we’ve had 20 years of global warming, why does that prove it’s caused by CO2? The isotope temperature record in the Greenland ice cores shows that the Earth has had 40 periods of global warming and cooling in the past 500 years and this one fits right in the pattern–to be followed by 30 years of global cooling.

  40. If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.

  41. The strong La Nina that is building is of particular interest. The oceans are very cold right now with the projected SST’s driving further down, the PDO starting to get serious in the negative mode, the AMO not quite sure and the NAO showing signs of following the PDO. The AAO in the south looking to boost La Nina production.
    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_inv.gif
    Along with the climate oscillations the Sun promises little (which appears to be related), the next northern hemisphere winter might be something to talk about?

  42. Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, has been spectacularly bombing ever since.
    The lamestream media (ABCNNBCBS, NYT, WaPo, etc.) keeps on breathlessly reporting on all the pending disasters mankind faces (let’s book Ehrlich for an interview with Matt Lauer). And if you dig further you’ll find that viewership of the idiot box news reports keeps dropping and the print element faces collapsing subscriber rates.
    Mark Serreze’s NSIDC, the least offensive of the offenders, carefully walks a fine line between scientific probity and AGW alarmism correctness. They do this so well that the media can quote and paraphrase them, as The Guardian did, in such a way that it sounds like NSIDC is forecasting a new record low sea ice extent this year.
    And then of course there’s Hansen with his hottest hour/day/week/month/year/decade/century ever.
    For some people, failure is an option, perhaps the only option. Such as the Orrin Boyle wannabes held up as models of business excellence (think Tony Hayward of Beyond Petroleum).
    I guess it’s true — birds of a feather do stick together.

  43. In September they will say it’s the 4th lowest Arctic ice extent on the record or that the long-term trend is still down. Reason tells me that sooner or later they are going to have to throw in the towel.

  44. Joe Lalonde says:
    July 29, 2010 at 4:42 am . . .
    Nah . . surely not. I mean not the MSM?

  45. Robert Goddard was ridiculed as a “Moon Man” etc. “Scientific consensus” dictated the
    idea that rocketry could not operate in a vacuum. However,Herman Oberth was paying
    attention even if the US government wasn’t:
    http://space.about.com/od/biographies/a/robertgoddard_2.htm
    My wife calls me a “Frustrated Spaceman”
    “Why don’t you fellows solve your little problems and light this candle. ”
    -Alan B.Shepard…

  46. Peter Sinclair, the video environmentalist, has another vid out concerning the warming the Mr. Goddard is posting about. I watched at Little Green Footballs. I used Mr. Goddard’s Hansen quote from yesterday to show the unscientific manner Hansen came up with his numbers, estimates in the Artic.
    Mr. Sinclair is very choosey with the presentations he shows. It is very misleading.

  47. Pascvaks says:
    July 29, 2010 at 7:44 am
    If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.
    HUH?

  48. The dead sea: Global warming blamed for 40 per cent decline in the ocean’s phytoplankton.
    You may have read this online from the Independant, the online version is nothing like the printed propaganda, it has a full colour front page and full colour pages 3 and 4.
    The picture on the front page shows in all the fish in the food chain, the biggest at the top of picture and the caption, Dead sea.
    It is obvious why they do not want the printed version on line.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-dead-sea-global-warming-blamed-for-40-per-cent-decline-in-the-oceans-phytoplankton-2038074.html

  49. Gail Combs says:
    July 29, 2010 at 7:23 am
    hunter says:
    July 29, 2010 at 4:55 am
    The core of AGW is apocalyptic cult thinking. Climate science is just the way to manifest the need for apocalypse.
    ________________________________________________________
    Boy is that ever the truth: However the people who are actually running the show are the very wealthy bankers and corporate presidents and CEOs. I wish the left would wake up and understand how they are being manipulated. . .

    The liberals here won’t like it, but the worshipful followers of “the apocalyptic cult” (under the ‘green’ and ‘environmentalist’ labels) are what Lenin called “useful idiots.”
    Gail, you should write a book. It is impossible to keep up with the flood of your quotes and links.
    /Mr Lynn

  50. I also see a trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade in the graphs. But click the link and re-plot them back to 1990 and a whole new picture emerges.
    A graph based on a temperature dataset that shows a huge peak in 1998, which everyone attributes to a very strong ENSO, not to CO2-caused warming, cannot be taken as evidence of strong CO2-caused warming.
    If a strong ENSO can affect global temperature, then a weak ENSO, or no ENSO, or a La Nina, or a volcanic eruption, or a myriad of other things can also affect the data. Without accounting for all those effects, at least to the level of hundredths of a degree Celsius, the dataset cannot tell us anything significant about CO2-caused warming.
    Pointing to those charts as evidence of disastrous AGW is misdirection, pure and simple.
    – dT

  51. We do not know yet if March or July will be the hottest month of 2010. But if we use the monthly temperatures fron UAH to get a trend from El Niño-peak 1998 (February) to El Niño-peak 2010, it will be less than 0.04°C per decade in any case, which is not significant. Jones is right.

  52. Nick Stokes says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:48 am
    hansen blah blah blah hansen blah blah…

    are you serious? hansen is so far from reality that whatever he and his minions produce is not even wrong.

  53. Ya but without man caused globull warming the coming period of El Nina would be much worse and just wait when we go into another El Nino. Hanson and company are writing that up right now.

  54. How right Al Gore is : Global Warming is unprecedented nowadays . Let us not fiddle about minor discrepancies like thermometer reading , but let us face the facts :
    In 1945 when the US liberated Holland from the demonic german rule there were next to nudists as nudism was associated with greenish german thinking . Nowadays according to the nudist federation there are a couple of million active nudists . Did they fall back to the old greenish thinking ? Oh no , global warming forced them to put off their clothing ! The beaches became simply too hot ! We are waiting for a prophesy by mr Hansen how the Dutch will be dressing up in future ? Will he stay decent himself and is this development irreversable ?Anyway here Global Warming and its most primitive consequences cannot be denied in any way shape or form .

  55. mkelly says:
    July 29, 2010 at 8:40 am
    “Mr. Sinclair is very choosey with the presentations he shows. It is very misleading.”
    “Choosy” is too kind. I’ve flat out shown him that he was wrong on several of his videos and he’s refused to correct his mistakes. He is a propagandist through and through.
    Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:53 am
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7914611/Met-Office-report-global-warming-evidence-is-unmistakable.html
    That has to be one of the most ridiculous polar bear photos I’ve seen. I’ve be quite surprised if that wasn’t photo-shopped.

  56. Pascvaks says:
    July 29, 2010 at 7:44 am
    If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.
    __________________________________________________
    I lost my livelihood twice thanks to the mass media and raving maniacs, I will probably be losing not only my livelihood but my entire life savings to the mass media and raving maniacs for a third time very shortly. Only this time I and my husband are in our sixties and can not recover. I am not the only one. There are over 2.1 million of us in the USA alone and some of us are waking up and opening their eyes.
    There are actually very few “who are actually doing something helpful for us all” if you look you will find they are just a front for the greedy and they do not even know it.
    Wall Street and western bankers funded Lenin and the Bolsheviks, just as they are funding Greenpeace, WWF, and “climate science” today. If you think they are doing so out of the goodness of their hearts, I have this bridge I want to sell….

  57. I don’t care how you spin it, this is not a prediction, this is a joke:
    “Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.”
    Can I have those odds with the lottery?
    Only they get millions to come up with this crap.

  58. Apparently despite endangerment findings and all the hype about the increase in disease, this administration is apprarently not too worried about it – this from CDC’s proposed FY2011 budget:
    “Vector-borne Diseases (-$26.7 million)
    The FY 2011 budget request does not include funding for Vector-borne Diseases. No specific funding is included for vector-borne activities, including West Nile Virus surveillance (WNV).”

  59. londo & others — “hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm”
    No. and hell no! maybe you all are thinking of tornados
    Hurricanes are a different thing and are the results of characteristics in the off-the-equator tropics. Look it up!

  60. When we know , thanks to Mike Rivero and others , that thermometers were placed near heat islands ( like tennis courts , ventilation , etc ) why even bother wasting time acerting that data ?
    Just look instead at the rising levels of oceans for decades , a certain fact just ask the Dutch … Should I add that ice melts when it is warmer ?
    So , what is left to nail in the heads of people is that humans have very little to do with climate change , That’s the Point .
    See a world free of deceit and the elite at RecipeForaNation.vox.com , future shocking .

  61. Nick Stokes says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:48 am
    “Well, actually not.”
    When the Australian Bureau of Met was asked about using data from 1950 rather than the full data set, their response is shown below. Note in particular the use of reference years 0f 1961-1990 as ‘regarded internationally as the standard reference period’.
    Are our supposed ‘experts’ comparing apples and oranges to meet a desired outcome?
    Even if they are not, how is anyone supposed to keep track of what they are attempting to tell us when the goalposts keep moving? It’s no wonder there is so much confusion.
    ———————————————————————-
    See ‘http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/2010/03/update-csiro-shed-little-light.html”
    Question 2: The charts showing temperature, rainfall and hot and cold day maximums do not show data prior to 1960. BMR claims to have been observing and reporting on weather in Australia for over 100 years. Why did it not use its complete set of records in depicting changes in these parameters? Does omitting an earlier period of warming between 1910 and 1940 for which BMR has records affect the resulting charts? What would be the effect of including this data on the charts? Can CSIRO provide updated charts showing the effect of including the full set of records?
    Answer: The plots provided in the Climate Snapshot cover the last 50 years because this is the period in recent memory of most Australians and for which we have the most comprehensive information. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC 2007). It is also worth noting that the period 1961-90 is regarded internationally as the standard reference period and the Snapshot brings us forward to today. The Bureau has always stressed that the full record is available for people to look at and analyse and has recently published the full record in the Annual Climate Summary 2009, the major Bureau publication released in March 2010.

  62. Steve:
    your UAH graph on global temperature is not very consistent with Dr Spencer’s figures. For example, March is supposed to be +0.65 and your is about 0.55 Is it an interpolation?

  63. As Gray and Klotzbach have stated again and again, “global warming” has no impact whatsoever on the the frequency or strength of tropical cyclones. (Incidentally, hurricane numbers in the Atlantic basin have declined compared to the active period of the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s).
    I stopped paying attention to Hansen years ago. He’s a two-bit carnival barker impersonating a scientist.

  64. Rob Vermeulen
    I take the UAH data right off their website. The Google spreadsheet function I used to make the graph does some smoothing. It has no impact on the fact that UAH had 1998 hotter.

  65. A lesson of COMMON SENSE: George Carlin “The Planet is Fine”
    [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arbpu1xKAow&hl=en_US&fs=1]

  66. NevenA
    You cleverly chose your start point to be the peak of La Nina and the end point to be the peak of El Nino.
    Cherry-picking at its absolute worst.

  67. If anyone can provide information on Steve Goddard’s existence prior to April 2008, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.

  68. If anyone can provide information on Snowlover123’s existence prior to 2010, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.

  69. Alexander Feht says:
    July 29, 2010 at 12:32 am
    But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?
    Votes! 🙂

  70. NevenA says:
    July 29, 2010 at 6:30 pm
    Here is a non-cherrypicked graph of all datasets.
    Thanks for trying to convince me it wasn’t cherry picked. But, I know it is nothing but cherry picked.
    But God bless ya anyway.

  71. stevengoddard says:
    July 29, 2010 at 7:39 pm
    NevenA
    You cleverly chose your start point to be the peak of La Nina and the end point to be the peak of El Nino.
    Cherry-picking at its absolute worst.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Oh, but he told us it wasn’t cherry picked. So that means it wasn’t. It only matters what is said. Don’t look at anything behind the curtain.
    sarc off

  72. Snowlover123
    July 29, 2010 at 8:44 pm
    As is usual, attack the man, never discuss the science.

  73. The whole climate warming issue is interesting to me in several respects. It is a variation on “The Limits To Growth” book and other concepts put forth in the 1970′. The first edition of this book suggested that the worldwide society should move to zero growth in population, industry, consumption, land use – everything! Failure to stabilize overall growth will inevitably lead to overextension of the system leading to major global population calamity in the future. They were working on 50 or so year time frames.
    O, Whoa Are Us. But no serious action was taken.
    There was a later revised companion to “The Limits To Growth” that published the basic conclusions that
    The basic suggestions from the original study were mostly valid.
    But (in summary),
    Instead of a global population calamity,
    Expect the “First World Nations” organizing and “dominating” the “Third World
    Nations” to control the essential resources. This seems to lead only to “Third World
    Nations” population calamity.
    Is there a pattern here?

  74. wow what pretty graphs! So am I to dismiss the evidence of my own body that tells me we been having extremely hot summers for at least 5 years in a row? So all those heat waves I been experiencing are what, in my imagination only?? Tell that to the people who died in Russia or to all the people on the East coast of USA who had another hot summer!

  75. No matter what your background you can see Arctic ice in not in the death spiral that some scientists have said it is in.
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
    It looks like it is doing what Steven Goddard forecast it would. It may even end up having a little higher minimum than he forecast. (But maybe not) I didn’t see the global warming scientists come anywhere near this in their doom predictions. And the PIOMAS graph is laughable.
    Those who attack Steven Goddard do it because they are afraid of him. And they are coming out of the woodwork to do it. There’s new names coming all the time. That tells me they are really feeling uneasy.
    Steven Goddard’s Arctic ice posts are very informative as to what is really happening with Arctic ice. And he has been right in his forecasts.
    In the final analysis those who attack someone that is right are a non factor in the real world. It must suck to be them—it must suck that when it comes right down to it people can see you’ve got nothing.

  76. It seems the alarmists have ramped-up the propaganda of late. May be because the Mexico COP meeting is just 4 months away.
    One can see the strategy, keep harping about the “warmest year” for the next few months. If this La Nina cools the planet by October November, just pretend that’s only weather.

  77. Plamen Petkov says:
    July 29, 2010 at 10:04 pm “another hot summer!”
    So, I was taking a sip of my favoriate beverage as I read this. Now I am wiping off the monitor! My heavens. It is hot in summer. Who would have thunk it?
    It is winter in South America and it has been very cold. So?
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    And I don’t care about the parentage and education of Steven Goddard and I care even less about Snowlover123 or 4.

  78. Yesterday, our UK media was full of the latest incontrovertible evidence of unprecedented global warming. It was based upon the work od “100 scientists” so could not be wrong. Only problem was the press release eminated from UK Met Office and NOAA.
    Looking forward to posting here about the “evidence”
    Cheers
    Paul

  79. Plamen Petkov says:
    July 29, 2010 at 10:04 pm

    wow what pretty graphs! So am I to dismiss the evidence of my own body that tells me we been having extremely hot summers for at least 5 years in a row?

    Yes, you are to dismiss the evidence of your own body telling you anything about temperatures.
    1) It is only your body. Unless you are multidimensional, your body is only providing one data point. Or do we drop all pretense of a network of temperature measurements and simple use your perceptions of temperature and average it out over the globe?
    2) Our perceptions are worthless in getting objective measures of temperature. For that matter, they’re fairly useless in measuring anything; mass, acceleration, brightness, etc. This is why thermometers were invented.
    3) Are you sure you are not going through some sort of hormonal change in life? My wife has been complaining about the heat for the last few years. I just tell her it’s her change, she thinks about that, and agrees. Why don’t we use my wife’s perception of heat and drop all these discussions about temperature?
    4) What’s so special about your body?

  80. ” NevenA says:
    July 29, 2010 at 6:30 pm
    Here is a non-cherrypicked graph of all datasets.”
    If NevenA wanted to calculate the trend of sine x, he would start at -Pi/2 und end at Pi/2.
    He would get something else if he went from peak (Pi/2) to peak (5Pi/2). It might even be correct.

  81. ” stevengoddard says:
    July 29, 2010 at 9:10 pm
    If anyone can provide information on Snowlover123′s existence prior to 2010, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.”
    You forgot: “… and what his real name is…”
    But I would appreciate some information about the contributors, too, in “ABOUT”, in the style of “ABOUT ANTHONY”, maybe a bit shorter.

  82. Alexej Buergin
    Mark Serreze at NSIDC and Joe Romm already published the critical portion of my bio. They described my understanding of the Arctic as “breathtakingly ignorant.”
    So you can accept Mark/Joe’s (every summer) forecast of a “a possible record low” or you can look at my detailed long-term and week-by-week forecast.
    Remember that climate alarmists treat their opponents with only the greatest respect, in the tradition of the great debating societies at Oxford. Because they understand what science is all about – and anyone who disagrees with them must be a criminal oil industry shill who should be jailed.
    Indeed, the very survival of the planet depends on converting everyone to their point of view. They have achieved the same high level of spirituality as the Mullahs of Iran.

  83. I expect and am preparing for a very cold winter this year. Every body should visit the ICE AGE NOW web site.

  84. stevengoddard says:
    “July 30, 2010 at 5:32 am
    Mark Serreze at NSIDC and Joe Romm already published the critical portion of my bio. They described my understanding of the Arctic as “breathtakingly ignorant.”
    So you can accept Mark/Joe’s (every summer) forecast of a “a possible record low” or you can look at my detailed long-term and week-by-week forecast.”
    I never read what these two honourable gentlemen write.
    My suggestion about “about WUWT” was meant to strenghten it, the same way as it is better to use your real name.

  85. northerngirl says:
    July 29, 2010 at 11:43 am
    Apparently despite endangerment findings and all the hype about the increase in disease, this administration is apprarently not too worried about it – this from CDC’s proposed FY2011 budget:
    “Vector-borne Diseases (-$26.7 million)
    The FY 2011 budget request does not include funding for Vector-borne Diseases. No specific funding is included for vector-borne activities, including West Nile Virus surveillance (WNV).”
    ______________________________________________________-
    No kidding. The government and the states have sharply CUT spending and closed down government labs since the passage of the World Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture in 1995. Now we are supposed to rely on “traceability” to prevent disease instead of testing and quarantine. I kid you not. Farmers have been up in arms about it for years but you will not see a word about it in the mass media.
    For example in the state of California in 1995 Animal Health Officials did 10,576 tests for Tuberculosis in cattle and 30 from submissions at slaughter. By 1999, four years after WTO was ratified, the number had dropped to 1,425 tests. Thanks to the open border policy for the TB infected herds in Mexico, “Bovine TB was confirmed in three dairy herds during 2002-2003.[California] ….Although the source of the infections was not confirmed, the investigations indicate TB was most likely imported in infected cattle….” http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/Animal_Health/pdfs/Tb_in_California_2006.pdf
    TB infected herds are now found in several states including California, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Additionally, it is anticipated that both New Mexico and California will lose their TB “free” status in 2008, (from AGENCY STRATEGIC PLAN: FOR THE FISCAL YEARS 2009-2013 PERIOD BY TEXAS ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSION)
    The USDA had reported “The number of carcasses found infected with TB is 15 times higher than in 1986” a few years ago but now you will no longer find that or other similar information on the web. The TEXAS ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSION report was also changed but not the date.
    Global warming is not the only place you will find propaganda coverups.

  86. Alexej Buergin says:
    July 30, 2010 at 8:53 am
    ….My suggestion about “about WUWT” was meant to strenghten it, the same way as it is better to use your real name.
    ______________________________________________________________
    For those who are of working age, commenting under their real name can be very very dangerous. Corporations want “team players” They do not want people who are independent thinkers or “mavericks” HR departments now routinely google a person’s name so comments you made can come back and bite you. Writings by someone with the same name as yours can bite you. If you have ever been a small business owner they do not want to hire you.
    It is another method for enforcing “group think”
    Also science should stand alone on its own merits. It is the idea and the evidence and not the “NAME” that matters or should.

  87. Interesting comments and some are very telling. If you are not a government funded muckity muck, it’s obvious that you are not qualified to interpret data and as such you are in denial – of something – not exactly sure what that is (reality?), but if you don’t work of NASA or CRU, you can’t play in the sandbox of ideas and statistics – period. That passes for science these days. After all, it is already settled. The ‘Tree’ AlGore said so.

  88. Amino … did you look at the Ice Graph you posted ?
    Amsr-E’s 2010 passed 2009 again. The Soap Opera Continues.
    Data: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
    Comparing _______2007___ to___ 2010_______&______2009
    Ahead June 28______ no________ 679,531 Square Km____no___
    Ahead July 28____594,844_________no______________21,094
    Ahead July 30____580,625_________no______________ 3,281
    Ahead July 31____540,625_________no_______________ no ___(39,531 behind)
    Daily:
    July28-29 ______- 48,594 _____- 57,912
    July29-30 ______ – 51,250 _____- 77,969 = 9 %
    July30-31 ______ – 52,812 _____- 92,812 preliminary = 8.8 % (DOOM %)
    Aug1-to-2______ – 51,250 _____ ? ?
    Pips showed strong motion (in a reverse Beaufort Gyre typical of Long-term Lows) http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=7&day=30
    but in a few days it weakens = shift to La Nina = Clear Skies ?
    cf the Pips Forecast at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=8&day=1
    I’d kind-of prefer to be a few weeks l;ater — better Wrong than Dead.
    I see from the “Soot ” post I’ve always been right that: Warming is Coming from the SOOT promoted by the Global Warming Lobby (doubtless to Perpetuate their Tax subsidies).
    A good map of how the Ice is being Eaten away from the European side is figure #5 in: http://www.arcus.org/files/search/sea-ice-outlook/2010/07/pdf/pan-arctic/kaukeretaljulyoutlook.pdf
    Yes — the New (submitted July 14) Sea Ice Outlooks are out. Unfortunately they only put up the first page of my submission.
    Does anyone know where I could put up the rest ???

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