By Steve Goddard
- Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists
Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.
The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.
Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).
If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.
Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.
Well, actually not.
“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.
As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.
The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?
For kicks I checked wikipedia to see if they made any changes relative to these record breaking back to back NOAA announcements. Their satellite graph stops
just prior to 2010 – figures they’d do something. But it is interesting in that it goes all the way back to the 70’s showing the start of the satellite data and the spike 97-98 which shows what Phil Jones of CRU said “We’ve not been able to find any global warming since 1997” … Hanson’s 30’s to 90’s data switch is hurting them these days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png
Also it won’t show up in the averaged July graph plot but the sun’s magnetism index actually dropped back down to “1” again for 2 days last week, followed by 2 days of an index of 2. Our sun is just not capable of breaking records right now.
Steve, a good few years back, during Thatchers time of “hanging loose with an ex U.S. ex-actor” a TV series called “Spitting Image”.
Try Youtube and Thatcher plus Norman Tebbit………Imagine what they would have done with Hansen, Mann and Jones………I wish!
La Nina is my sort of Latin Babe!
I think thisarticle ties with my thought on the newer article on science above – the politicization of science leads to this. Science needs to be dispassionate, in order for the human mind to really internalize, cogitate, and change behavior based on external data. In this political noise machine with Murdoch, Fox, and MSNBC making every point a political one it will lead to this, seeing things you want to see or even worse lying about the facts as you would in a political capaign in a newroom and a newspaper. Get real facts and use them, never trust one source, even this one.
I would suggest that using the number of hurricanes as a measure of cylconic activity is not a good choice. I would think that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), is a better measure. I dont have all the figures, but in the North Atlantic for 2005, by this date the ACE value was around 62; average about 100. I have not been able to get the ACE values for 2010 (does anyone have a URL?), but it has to be in single digits; probably around 3.
Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:53 am
Met Office report global warming evidence is unmistakable
The Office of ‘Barbeque Summers and Belching Cows Cause Global Warming’ have published their last ditch attempt at convincing the public before they get down to planning a serious boondoggle in Cancun later this year.
I think their boss still thinks he is working for the World Wildlife Fund.
It is unmistakeable that the world has warmed since the Little Ice Age and we’re all very grateful. It’s about time they researched their standard excuse of ‘natural variability’ which is trotted out anytime something doesn’t fit the global warming mantra.
Think media is a little one sided?
The core of AGW is apocalyptic cult thinking. Climate science is just the way to manifest the need for apocalypse.
londo
Exactly. Venus is uniformly hot and doesn’t have any hurricanes,
Could be that Obama desperately needs the tax revenue from cap and tax so he has his minions conjure up demons. React to the slave master not the the conjured demons.
One can always tell their opponents are losing a debate when they resort to arguing semantics.
Nick Stokes said:
Wow Nick, that really is desperate. Back in early June Hansen was already declaring 2010 would be the “warmest year on record”. How can any responsible objective scientist make such prophetic statements before the data is collected?
When did GISS discover increased Arctic SAT warming? Was it nonexistent prior to 2005?
Alexander Feht says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:32 am
It has been described thousand times, in thousands of details, how we are being manipulated by thousands of lies.
Not that pointing out these lies is useless, no. It is a noble endeavor.
But the question remains: how to deal with ruling liars?
_____________________________________________________
Introduce them to Madame Guillotine?
“None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.”
Hmm. I look at those graphs and see several around .2C for the decade. But they are hard to read at that size and without trend lines drawn in.
I think Ralph was asking if you were related to Robert Goddard, the engineer and visionary who invented liquid-fuel rocketry back in the ’20s and ’30s, after whom the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD is named.
/Mr Lynn
“stevengoddard says:
July 29, 2010 at 5:05 am
londo
Exactly. Venus is uniformly hot and doesn’t have any hurricanes”
Since it doesn’t have water this seems rather obvious. Jupiter has millenia long hurricanes. All of which is irrelevant…
Jim Cripwell says:
July 29, 2010 at 3:58 am
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
According to the above:
Predictions From NOAA
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure3.gif
A summary of a 10 minute report on the main tv channel in Spain yesterday (TVE-1) during the daily newscast.
They begin with an account of the current heat wave in Spain, images of people trying to cool themselves in pools, fountains etc.
Then they go on to say that, if you think this is bad, you should consider the predictions just made by a group of scientist [at some Meteorological institution in Spain]. The predictions of these unnamed scientists are that 50 years from now, in 2060, the temperatures in most of Spain will be 6 degrees C warmer than today. That’s right. More than 1 deg C of warming per decade from now on. They didn’t even say “could” or “might”. No. They said they WILL be that much warmer.
Then they said that the city of Seville (which has always been one of the hottest places during the summer in Spain) will reach temperatures similar to some places in the hottest African deserts today. They added that Madrid will have temperatures hotter than they are now in Seville. Then they said that rainfall will be reduced by 20-30 percent and that the entire Andalusian region will be a barren desert. The only part of Spain that will remain relatively unscathed is the Balearic islands.
And then, as a final note, they added that all this need not happen. That it’s entirely up to us whether it happens or not. That it all depends on whether we are willing or not to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent it.
This kind of mind boggling propaganda is being repeated with increasing shamelessness in the guise of “scientific” findings everywhere. I suppose some people must send them messages protesting such blatant fictions, but you don’t hear those messages. They seem to count on the fact that the majority of the public will take it for granted that if some people labeled as “scientists” said something, it must be true. On July 25, Paul Krugman ran a piece in the NYT titled “Who Cooked the Planet?” where he tries to find the culprit for the recent failure to pass the climate bill. He says it wasn’t the Science, nor the Scientists or the Economists. No, what killed this great legislation was simply “greed and cowardice”. It’s the Exxon Mobiles of this world that exercise brutal control on these matters and hinder such legislation with their infinitely deep pockets. And of course, all the skeptic scientists are in the pay of these industries.
Hansen is sick, and measuring his own rectal temperature. Thinks that every one else is that hot.
Bill Jamison says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:52 am
The SST anomaly already has Hudson Bay on the cold side of things.
In addition, the La Nina forms off Africa’s coast.
Both big oceans, global La Nina.
The synchronized elevators travel down.
hunter says:
July 29, 2010 at 4:55 am
The core of AGW is apocalyptic cult thinking. Climate science is just the way to manifest the need for apocalypse.
________________________________________________________
Boy is that ever the truth: However the people who are actually running the show are the very wealthy bankers and corporate presidents and CEOs. I wish the left would wake up and understand how ther are being manipulated.
1972 – UN First Earth Summit: as Elaine Dewar wrote in Toronto’s Saturday Night magazine:
“It is instructive to read Strong’s 1972 Stockholm speech and compare it with the issues of Earth Summit 1992. Strong warned urgently about global warming, the devastation of forests, the loss of biodiversity, polluted oceans, the population time bomb. Then as now, he invited to the conference the brand-new environmental NGOs [non-governmental organizations]: he gave them money to come; they were invited to raise hell at home. After Stockholm, environment issues became part of the administrative framework in Canada, the U.S., Britain, and Europe.”
1973 book coauthored by Obama’s Science Czar, John Holdern
“A massive campaign [Global Warming] must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States. De-devolopment means bringing our economic system (especially patterns of consumption) into line with the realities of ecology and the global resource situation. Resources and energy must be diverted from frivolous and wasteful uses in overdeveloped countries to filling the genuine needs of underdeveloped countries.”
“The need for de-development presents our economists with a major challenge,” they wrote. “They must design a stable, low-consumption economy[ Agenda 21 ] in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than the present one. Redistribution of wealth both within and among nations is absolutely essential, if a decent life is to be provided for every human being.”
… In the same book.. “The fetus, given the opportunity to develop properly before birth, and given the essential early socializing experiences and sufficient nourishing food during the crucial early years after birth, will ultimately develop into a human being….” Source: http://grendelreport.posterous.com/obamas-science-czar-advocates-de-developing-t
Later we find Maurice Strong’s foot prints all over the campaign to lead the world into “Global Governance” Such as UN REFORM – Restructuring for Global Governance
For anyone who thinks this is not a return to a form of feudalism: disguised as socialism:
“What unites the many different forms of Socialism.. is the conception that socialism (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) must be handed down to the grateful masses in one form or another, by a ruling elite which is not subject to their control…” marxists.org
And this statement from one of those would be masters:
David Rockefeller: “We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. . . . It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.” http://www.newswithviews.com/Cappadona/heidi5.htm
That statement is supported by the 2002 Rockefeller autobiography “Memoirs” on page 405:
“For more than a century ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents… to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as “internationalists and of conspiring with others around the world … If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.”
If you are a socialist I suggest you do some studying on your would be masters. Rockefeller hosts a yearly meeting of the World Bank and his bank, Chase, was the training ground for the World Bank presidents on at least three occasions.
A place to start:
leaked draft agreement at Copenhagen hands control to World Bank
World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programs (SAPs)
“Today I resigned from the staff of the International Monetary Fund .. To me, resignation is a priceless liberation, for with it I have taken the first big step to that place where I may hope to wash my hands of what in my mind’s eye is the blood of millions of poor and starving peoples. “
PRESIDENT’S PRIVATE SECTOR SURVEY ON COST CONTROL: …100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their government.
Has anyone bothered to ask, even if we’ve had 20 years of global warming, why does that prove it’s caused by CO2? The isotope temperature record in the Greenland ice cores shows that the Earth has had 40 periods of global warming and cooling in the past 500 years and this one fits right in the pattern–to be followed by 30 years of global cooling.
DR
When you control the data, you can make any prediction you want and probably be correct.
Brad
Do you think that Jupiter has water forming the hurricanes? You might want to avoid directly contradicting yourself in the same paragraph.
If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.
Today’s Ocean SST map is looking pretty-La-Nina-like. Some -5.0Cs are surfacing around the Galapagos islands which is the start of the ENSO surface circulation system.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.7.29.2010.gif