Recent Variations In Upper Ocean Heat Content – Information From Phil Klotzbach
By Dr. Roger Pielke Senior
Phil Klotzbach has graciously permitted me to post an update on upper ocean heat content in the equatorial upper ocean. He writes
“The Climate Prediction Center recently released its equatorial upper ocean heat content for April 2010. One of the primary areas that they focus on is the equatorial heat content averaged over the area from 180-100W. The decrease in upper ocean heat content from March to April was 1C, which is the largest decrease in equatorial upper ocean heat content in this area since the CPC began keeping records of this in 1979. The upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave was likely somewhat responsible for this significant cooling. It seems like just about every statistical and dynamical model is calling for ENSO to dissipate over the next month or two as well, so it’s probable that we will see a transition to neutral conditions shortly. I have attached a spreadsheet showing upper ocean heat content data from CPC since 1979. In case you’re interested, the correlation between April upper ocean heat content from 180-100W and August-October Nino 3.4 is an impressive 0.75 over the years from 1979-2009.
He has plotted the data below. An interesting question is to where this heat has gone.
It could have moved north and south in the upper ocean, however, to the extent the sea surface temperature anomalies map to the upper ocean heat content, there is no evidence of large heat transfers except, perhaps, in the tropical Atlantic [see].
The heat could have been transferred deeper into the ocean. However, if this is true, this heat would have been seen moving to lower levels, but, so far, there is no evidence of such a large vertical heat transfer.
The heat could, of course, be lost to space. This appears to be the most likely explanation.
But Hansen assured me that they were going to sink many times 10^22 joules of energy. Where’s the beef? Hansen.
Considering the UAH temps are high, heat out into the atmosphere then space is quite likely.
While driving to work this morning and listening to the radio, the weatherman said the low temperature in West Yellowstone last night was 8 degrees F. This is the 7th of May, for Pete’s sake! So obviously the missing heat hasn’t been found in Yellowstone.
Tell Sen. Sensenbrenner. I hope he reads this blog.
The above chart comes from the CPC and is based on weekly data. I’ve only been able to find the monthly numbers – anyone know where the weekly data can be found?
These numbers lead the ENSO by about 1 month.
I’ve often wondered that atmospheric temps are more about heat going from somewhere to somewhere, but not knowing anything about anything I just wonder.
That silly reality is slapping the warmistas, ……..again.
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RockyRoad says:
May 7, 2010 at 11:02 am
“. . . West Yellowstone last night was 8 degrees F. ”
West Yellowstone is 6650 feet ASL elevation. Spring usually comes much later in the high country of Wyoming.
In Seattle though the snow line was at 2000 feet yesterday. That’s really low for this time of year. Folks were commenting on how long the days are in December this year.
I would have thought Occam’s Razor would suggest that heat went to making the March UAH anomaly high. It’ll be interesting to see if the anomaly crashes back towards 2008 levels over the course of the rest of this year.
“The heat could have been transferred deeper into the ocean. However, if this is true, this heat would have been seen moving to lower levels, but, so far, there is no evidence of such a large vertical heat transfer.”
There are currently no instruments to measure this movement to the deeper ocean, so to say there is no evidence misses the true condition which is– we don’t know. With such a large upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave, you also have to have a downwelling as well. No instruments yet to measure this, but Trenberth et. al. are working on that.
“The heat could, of course, be lost to space. This appears to be the most likely explanation.”
Why is this most likely? With the stratosphere showing a net continuous cooling for many decades, such heat would have to pass through the stratosphere, and THIS is what there is no evidence for. In fact, losing this heat to space is the most un-likely explanation.
“
“”The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” “
RockyRoad
It snowed along the Front Range again last night, and I nearly froze my fingers off riding my bike this morning. Winter has been going on for so long that I hardly remember what it means to be warm. Ten years ago we typically had eight weeks of winter, now we have closer to eight months of winter.
http://www.intelliweather.com/popup/nat_rad_popup.htm
Hum, 1 to 2″ snow over Northern MN, North Dakota, now moving east.
Snow in Northern MN tonight. Just in time for the fishing “opener”. Nope, nope..that
missing heat isn’t around here…
Max
Heat moving down? I thought warm water moved up.
Joe Bastardi is predicting a fairly robust La Nina at the end of the year.
Considering the UAH temps are high, heat out into the atmosphere then space is quite likely.
Could make for an “interesting” summer.
Certainly a good chunk of the heat is lost to the atmosphere. We know that El Ninos dump heat from the ocean in this way because ocean fluctuations are the strongest determinant of global surface temperatures in the short term. A strong El Nino, like 1998, sends a spike of warming over the whole planet. That’s a huge heat dump, which must cool the ocean equivalently.
The missing heat hasn’t appeared in the UK. It’s unseasonably cool here at the moment.
Excellent evidence that the oceans just gave off a giant belch of heat.
Look for cooler time ahead….
Maybe the heat followed some naturally varying ocean currents up to the Arctic Ocean, where it is busy melting sea ice:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Arctic sea ice extent recently went below 2009, and now it has gone below 2008 as well.
More “missing heat”? So, how could it possibly have escaped into space, if that is indeed where it went, through all of that extra man made co2 which is greenhousing our planet? Are there any reliable estimates of how much co2 has been put out so far by the recent Icelandic volcanic eruption compared to how much we evil people have been puting out lately? I have seen some “no source quoted” info on this but am skeptical as to its reliability.
Wow.
I believe this is in total agreement with the heat loss of the ENSO mid pacific area illustrated here in a Joanne Nova animation:
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/05/the-la-nina-shark-rises-to-bite/
The present El Nino has just thrown huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere.
Curious how the heat/energy would be converted into the weather across globe. Is it missing, or being used up in various ways. I’m sure some may go into the deeper ocean, and some into space. But it has to add to the weather somehow.
Klotzbach says the decrease was in the “equatorial upper ocean heat”. Please excuse my ignorance, can anyone comment on how much we can generalize from the equatorial region? Is it considered a leading indicator? How large is this region, i.e., what % of total ocean area does it encompass?
A layman question.
Quote – The heat could, of course, be lost to space. This appears to be the most likely explanation.
Is the amount of the heat too small to have been observed by satellites or were they designed to measure “something” else (Russian nukes for example – sarcasm)?
Regards
R Gates,
Heat rises. The coolest part of 2-story house in summer is the tile floor in the first floor bathroom (since it is laid directly upon the cement foundation). The fact that the stratosphere has been cooling for a decade or two (not many decades) has to do with less aerosols in the stratosphere. With less resistance for heat to move out into space (due to less aerosols), there will be less of a temperature gradient in the stratosphere layer.