I found Bob’s Arctic Ocean Heat Content graph quite interesting as it may explain why we are seeing a recovery in sea ice for the last two years. It also reminds me a lot of the graph seen of the Barents Sea water temperature plotted against the AMO which WUWT recently covered here.
Update of NODC (Levitus et al 2009) OHC Data Through June 2009
Guest post by Bob Tisdale
INTRODUCTION
On October 1, KNMI updated the NODC Ocean Heat Content (Levitus et al 2009) data that’s available on Climate Explorer.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
These updates are not shown on the NODC’s Global Ocean Heat Content webpage:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index.html
The updates also aren’t shown in the table of Global Analyzed Fields (ASCII files):
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/3M_HEAT/heatdata.pl?time_type=yearly700
But the single 22.4 MB dataset at the top of the table does contain the January through March and the April through June data, which were updated (added) on September 14, 2009:
GLOBAL, HEMISPERIC, AND OCEAN BASIN GRAPHS
Global OHC has dropped back to its 2003 levels.
http://i34.tinypic.com/dev5ld.png
Global OHC
North Atlantic OHC is continuing to decline from its 2004 peak.
http://i36.tinypic.com/ddkeas.png
North Atlantic OHC
The recent drop in the South Atlantic OHC was sizeable, but not outside of the range of its normal variability.
http://i36.tinypic.com/2m5fais.png
South Atlantic OHC
And of the remaining OHC datasets, the only two that showed increases over the past six months are the South Pacific and Southern Ocean OHC
http://i35.tinypic.com/1ys415.png
South Pacific
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/34f19p2.png
Southern Ocean
Here are the remaining OHC subsets without commentary.
http://i38.tinypic.com/j79h1i.png
Northern Hemisphere
############
http://i35.tinypic.com/cqr13.png
Southern Hemisphere
############
http://i37.tinypic.com/2wlxz09.png
North Pacific
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/6e0oax.png
Indian Ocean
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/9u417d.png
Arctic Ocean
CLOSING
Two earlier posts illustrated the impacts of natural variables on OHC. These included the ENSO-induced step changes in the OHC of numerous oceans and the effects of the NAO on high-latitude North Atlantic OHC:
1. ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
2. North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
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Why do we not see the 1998 super El Nino? Was that just on the surface?
This would be in support of Svensmark’s theory , yes/no?
MattN, it’s there. Look at the South Pacific chart. See that huge spike around 1998?
They probably think of the downwards trend line as half of a cycle. They’ll add it to their charts when the reverse leg appears.
I think there is a la Nina coming down the track…
I am very grateful for Bob Tisdale’s consistent posting on the ocean; thanks to Anthony for your choice of excellent contributors. Bob, you have answered my question before, but I also hope you will keep some comments going regarding how accurately you think the raw data — not that stuff well cooked and seasoned — on ocean heat content is being put forward. For example, do you have good, somewhat good, some doubts, etc., about the data you are working with and with which you provide us these amazing charts? Do you have any thoughts you might like to share as to why the NODC and the table of Global Analyzed Fields are not updated? Strange that! Yeah, sure!
Also, I agree with Matt N, where is 1998 super El Nino in this data? How does the data connect with the AMO and PDO?
I just returned from Japan, having to “try” to travel directly after the worst of Typhoon Melor. It came at us as a “5”, but thankfully hit most of Japan as a “3”. Our pilot flew from Nagoya to Narita, without a secure destination to land the craft. We came in like a bucking bronco, or like riding a bull, which ever was worse. Today I see that 2 million Tokyo commuters were stranded. From my limited perspective, the damage was minimal, but it could have been much worse. Trying to sleep through this force of nature (nature here being the power of the oceans) is impossible — and also awesome.
MattN (19:30:26) :
Why do we not see the 1998 super El Nino? Was that just on the surface?
It appears to be limited to the southern hemisphere.
Check out the South Pacific graph….
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Ocean weather, not climate… but that’s a whole lotta cold water.
If this keeps up, the Titanic anniversary cruise might be overly interesting.
Great post Bob Tisdale, I keep wanting to call you PhD “doctor” Tisdale but reflecting on some of the prominent “doctors’ Studying climate I fear you might be offended. I can understand the points that you are making. I wonder if MattN’s question would be related to the fact that many of the graphs that you reference are to a depth of 700 meters or about 2250 feet. It would seem that the heat of the El Nino would take a couple of years to mix down to a depth that would reflect enough content to effect the measurement of the heat content of that much water. Sea Surface temps aren’t measured very deeply at the most about 30 feet depending on the method used. I do notice that a few years after the 98 event that there was a slight uptick in the heat content of several of the ocean areas. I guess to this older lesser educated mind it just seems to make sense.
Again a very informative post and very understandable. I love coming to this blog and reading everyday often more than once. It is good to see some folks that don’t mind people the unwashed commoner or the peers of the realm asking questions.
Anthony you are doing a wonderful job regardless of what the trolls say.
Bill Derryberry
You’ve got to be kidding.
ONE post on the elimination of data at CRU?!!??!
Still hacking away at El Nino, Solar cycles, placement of monitoring stations, polar ice, clouds, sea levels, hurricanes, and on, and on, etc., etc., ad nauseum.
Are you afraid to admit that you’ve misspent your blogging career (and possibly your life) whining about irrelevant issues?
The CRU/Phil Jones data is THE SOURCE. THE ORIGIN. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
Everything you discuss is entirely dependent upon accepting the truth and validity of Jones’ claim that the earth warmed over the last 150 yrs.
With that debunked or disproven, the entire theory falls apart. ALL other global warming claims are thus falsified.
THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE AFRAID OF.
You and your site are a pathetic, AGW-enabling, JOKE.
The bright red NODC chart (North Atlantic) had a nice parabolic shape heading into 2005. Now, it looks like a bubble has burst.
The South Pacific OHC correlates well with the ENSO SST’s, so the super El Nino of 98 shows in one of the graphs.
We could see a sizable drop if the Southern Ocean starts on another down-swing while El Nino fades while the short-term trends continue for the rest of the oceans.
I’m sorry, but when I see hockey stick like graphs and the word “anomaly” I now just glaze. There have been so many “cooked books” and the anomaly processing has been used to paper over so many ills… Is there truth in this? Is it just tilting at tarmac and islands with thermometers in the sun? Do we have any idea if the thermometers were sited well?
Anthony:
an interesting article re Captain Cooks sea temperature logs from his voyages in the 1700’s and others in the 1800’s
Ships’ logs from Cook’s Discovery and Resolution, William Bligh’s Bounty and 300 other 18th and 19th-century explorers’ vessels are being transcribed and digitised in a project that will allow climatologists to trace changing weather patterns.
The records, stored in the National Archives at Kew, contain a unique and highly accurate account of temperature, ice formation, air pressure and wind speed and direction in remote locations all over the world.
There are plenty of land-based weather reports from this period, but very little is known about the climate history of the three quarters of the world’s surface covered by sea.
Times Archive, 1890: Captain Cook’s journals
The book covers two years and ten months of the most brilliant achievements in the history of British nautical adventures
The UK Colonial Registers and Royal Navy Logbooks project, a partnership that includes the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of Sunderland, aims to make all the logs available online. The weather reports are being charted to allow instant comparisons between past observations and current conditions.
The log from HMS Isabella, which set out in 1818 to seek the fabled Northwest Passage, reveals that there was a small but significant decline in the sea ice in Baffin Bay over the past 190 years. Until now, scientists tracking sea ice formation have largely relied upon observations from satellites. However, some of the logs suggest that there has been little or no change in sea temperatures elsewhere in the Arctic. Climate change sceptics are likely to seize on these records as evidence that man-made greenhouse gases are having less impact than many scientists have claimed.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/article6862384.ece
Looks like it’s the sun wot does it. El Nino is heat escaping.
I have not read the comments, although the last few that i glimpse seem a bit overheated. If this information proves true and remains so for even a relatively brief period, the Northern Hemisphere is in for some very bad weather. Cold and deadly.
Uriel (20:39:00) :
You’ve got to be kidding.
ONE post on the elimination of data at CRU?!!??!
Got anything new to add? I’m sure Anthony will be ready to print a new article if you have.
Everything you discuss is entirely dependent upon accepting the truth and validity of Jones’ claim that the earth warmed over the last 150 yrs.
With that debunked or disproven, the entire theory falls apart. ALL other global warming claims are thus falsified.
So what’s your evidence that the Earth hasn’t warmed over the last 150 years?
THAT’S WHAT YOU’RE AFRAID OF.
You and your site are a pathetic, AGW-enabling, JOKE.
LOUD words; show us you are something more than an empty vessel.
the 2003 spike in global data, that occured with the switching to the argos data has been discussed hereÖ
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/02/anomalous-spike-in-ocean-heat-content/
most likelz, another 0.1 has to be subtracted from the heat content due to this error.
Bob, great post. Yet another confirmation of my own thoughts and calculations on ocean heat content in relation to solar input – or lack of it. Heat content drops while SST’s climb at solar minimum. The oceans going into heat emission mode when there are few sunspots.
When will someone start listening?
Uriel said
“The CRU/Phil Jones data is THE SOURCE. THE ORIGIN. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.”
Such blind fanaticism is fascinating. There is a total rejection of rational analysis as ‘Science’ is perverted in a Faith of Certainty, and, as always, a hate of ‘outsiders’. The choice of a minor Jewish Angel as a soubriquet seems obscure, but presumably supports fantasies about “Swords of Righteousness”.
MattN: You asked, “Why do we not see the 1998 super El Nino? Was that just on the surface?”
Looking at the tropical Pacific OHC graph, it’s a release of heat.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2h55ixv.png
Keep in mind that ENSO events also redistribute heat within the Pacific and cause changes in atmospheric circulation that result in lagged increases in OHC in other ocean basins.
The impacts of the 1997/98 El Nino are easier to see in the first of the linked posts:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/enso-dominates-nodc-ocean-heat-content.html
In that post I’ve included NINO3.4 SST anomaly data in the graphs to show the timing of ENSO events and I’ve also divided the oceans into subsets that help isolate the impacts.
” The CRU/Phil Jones data is THE SOURCE. THE ORIGIN. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS. ”
If that isn’t faith I have never seen it. Honestly Uriel who is pathetic here? and do you really need to shout? Seems like you are pounding sand. Is data from the topics you list such a joke? Data is all this post is. Deal with it. And does it really matter that the earth has warmed over the past 150 years? I think that the crux of the matter is whether or not the temperature increases over the last 30-50 years are due to man made CO2 or if are they due to other factors such as increasing UHI, incorrect methods of temperature readings, solar trends, biased correction factors, etc? At any rate does a 150 year warming trend (which interestingly starts at the end of the LIA) somehow prove that we need to follow some clown who will tell us the “correct” way to live? i.e. CO2 free (or perhaps put another way “stop breathing you capitalist pig”). If you follow history you might consider the cooling scare of the 70s, did that somehow rely on “the source the orgin the only thing that matters”? General history might also teach you a few things as well especially if you think about soviet agricultural practices and the real fallout of misplaced and hokey but accepted “scientific” theory.
And finally thanks for your opinion but many of us here like Anthony’s site and think he does a great job. If you don’t like it why dont you start you own blog? I suggest you call it “Pounding Sand.”
APE
I’m just going to add, for the record, that my model doesn’t show such a steep climb in OHC around 2003, nor does it predict such a steep fall around now. Either something anomalous happened with cloud cover or maybe Syd Levitus has been cooking the books.
As the Earthshine data doesn’t show anything too exciting 2003-2009 I’m inclined to believe it may be the latter. Particularly as my earlier calculations on OHC show wild changes between Levitus 2000 and Levitus 2005.
I have no doubt however that OHC has been falling increasingly quickly since late 2003, just not in the abrupt manner the graphs show.
Perhaps Craig Loehle is keeping an eye on the latest ARGO dtata and will tell us more presently.
Uriel 20:39:00
Good to hear the voice of calm reason at last. Of course Phil Jones is a demi-god. Now be a good boy and go away and play while the grown-ups talk.