The Met Office UK summer forecast – Mad Dogs and Englishmen

Guest Post by Steven Goddard


The Third Little Show

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta
- Noel Coward – 1931

Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II.  It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole.   And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year.  The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.

Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England.  Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 .  Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted -

The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago.  But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
- Attributed to Albert Einstein

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/met_office_forecast_computer-520.jpg?w=330&h=330

Darts anyone?

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186 thoughts on “The Met Office UK summer forecast – Mad Dogs and Englishmen

  1. I’m rather astonished. The UK Met office used to be 100% accurate with “sunny periods with scattered showers” forecasts.

    Now, every year, they go out on a limb and predict heat and drought. I guess they’ll be right once or twice … eventually.

  2. A Broken Clock is right twice a day.

    You just wait and see, one of these times I will be right. Like playing the same numbers in the lottery, eventually they will come out, you may be long dead but it will happen.

    It is not a forecast as much as a opinion, here in Canada they actually point out that they only have 50% record on the sign of seasonal change forecasts …

  3. Yes, but some time they will get it right and get a few pats on the back and some shrill global warming stories. Peoples’s memories are short.

  4. No more than I expected. I have to say that after this last winter I’ve given up using the Met Office and now use Accuweather forecasts, which so far at least have proved to be considerably better. I notice that they are predicting a normal to slightly cooler than average summer.

  5. ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’

    Of course. Self fulfilling, if they site their weather stations the way we do. Enough charcoal in the barbie (OK, that’s Down Under) and the MET can report record highs.

    Just be careful not to burn your parka.

  6. On March 31st 2009 the Met Office forecast average summer temperatures for UK and western Europe. What value do you place on long term forecasts that change so much in just a month?

    I would post a link but the page no longer exists.

  7. It’s optimism. If I get another summer like last one, I’ll shoot myself. If I could own a gun.

  8. It’s alright for you Yanks, I have to pay for the wretched place and all the idiots in it who, even as write, are looking forward to their superb pensions – and I paid for those as well! Can anyone spare a sick-bag?

  9. They have “lost the plot”, time for their Models, Computers and Satellites to be put in the bin.
    Bring out that Dartboard !.

  10. I wonder how many years in a row one can confidentially forecast the following Quarter to their boss, be completely, polar oppositely wrong, and continue to keep their job?

    I would think that if your boss REALLY liked you, you might be able to scrape by the first two times…

    I imagine there are more than a couple in the Met office hoping they get it right this time.

  11. Just because they can’t predict a season’s weather doesn’t mean they can’t predict the globe’s climate for the next 10, 20, 50 or 100 years. Weather isn’t climate, you know.

    Why, there are too many factors in predicting the weather. Climate is much simpler. Just take a temp chart and draw and upward-trending line for the future.

    And call it a ‘scenario’, not a prediction.

  12. Wow, look at the change in attitude! A year ago a warm summer would be a global warming disaster. Now:

    “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.”

    It almost sounds like a warm summer would actually be a good thing. Back to the re-educations camps for Chief Meteorologist Ewen McCallum!

  13. They can’t be basing their prediction on anything other than hope.

    I’m personally predicting a cooler than average summer with below average hot days and cooler nights… and I’m basing that on both Atlantic and Pacific cycles and a spotless Sun.

    If they took bets on this someplace, I’d be willing to put money on it.

    The annoying part is, next year everyone will forget that Met was wrong and I was right…

  14. Whether the Met Office:

    Whether the weather is hot
    As the Met thinks is near
    Or whether it’s not
    Will in some months be clear
    In the meantime
    Roll out the barbie
    The beef and the beer

  15. :-D :-D :-D :-D

    I love these posts that produce the best comments on the internet.

    Thanks, Anthony. It’s good to have a few chuckles at the expense of the warmers.

  16. My long range every day forecast for the UK remains unchanged, long term, short term, any term.

    Cloudy with some sunshine and rain at times.

    Still if the Met Office need any help they can always ask poor old Michael Fish Met Office Employee and former BBC weatherman eh ?

    “Some woman has called the BBC and said that she’d heard that there was a Hurricane on the way, don’t worry…………..

    That evening the great storm of 1987 roared ashore….

  17. Maybe there’s a method behind their madness. If their forecast is wrong, they’ll have justification for buying another supercomputer to improve their forecasting capabilities. If it’s right, then by Jove, that new supercomputer was just the thing!

  18. So, the last two summers in Britain were influenced by weather, but if it’s really hot this year, the influence is climate.

    Do I have this mangled to the right degree?

  19. If you look at the past 2 years weather, the further away from the tropics (except for the mysterious supposed Trans Siberian Heatwave), the overall cooler it has been.

    Whats interesting, is that is exactly what happened during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.

  20. I am curious if there are any lawyers out there who could answer whether or not we could bring a “False Claims Act” suit against those who are pushing for this C02 legislation which will cost the government and in turn us trillions of dollars? Could we not bring it around to convince some that it will save the government money? I know I am reaching, but we need something here as we are losing this battle for our free country and the world.

    People at these agencies are making these false claims based on an agenda (conspiracy) that will do different things based on how you see the scenario.

    “Conspiracy” A secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act.

    A plot to carry out some harmful or illegal act (especially a political plot).

    A group of conspirators banded together to achieve some harmful or illegal purpose.

    I am also really tired about people saying that it isn’t a conspiracy and you are paranoid, well how does everyone think they (powers that be) are getting away with;

    1. The destruction of the financial markets and in turn the eventual curbing of the free market….if that has ever been the case since the 20′s.

    2. The destruction of our freedom and our ability to create products and wealth by unfair taxation and regulation.

    3. insert other possible scenarios here i.e. nationalized healthcare which is a misnomer, just look at how our system has helped people so far., mandatory vaccinations, taxing you extra for extra children because of their carbon footprint etc. etc.

    The problem with people not seeing the corruption and conspiracy is that we are conditioned to think anyone with a conspiracy theory is a kook, one who wears a tin foil hat and shouts about area 51 on the street corner. We cannot possibly imagine that there is somthing this sinister and corrupt going on and to even imagine it is too disturbing so we side with, oh that is silly and “you American’s and your conspiracy theories” (which is a quote I heard last week).

    We need a separation of government and industry in the biggest of ways. How are we going to do this? Is it too late?

  21. The British have always been optimistic about having a good summer and to ensure we don’t forget the very occasional one that comes along we keep very good records.

    http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm

    Unfortunately our summers are not showing much signs of getting warmer, with June actually cooler on average since 1659

    Of our twenty warmest summers 8 occured in the 18th century, 4 in the 19th, 4 in the 20th with 2 so far in the 21st.

    Winters are getting warmer (not surprising as our figures back to 1659 include the Little Ice age) but this was because the severe cold in the LIA dragged down overall mean temperatures. These LIA winters are the only reason why overall the mean temperatures have consequently risen fractionally in 350 years of record keeping-the longest in the world. (see the link)

    However, even the warm winters these days aren’t what they used to be. Our warmest three remain 1733 1868 and 1833. Whilst we associate Charles Dickens with snow, ironically he lived through some of the warmest winters on record and wrote A Christmas Carol during a heat wave to stave off bankruptcy.

    A bit worrying really to think that temperatures have only recovered fractionally over the LIA values. Perhaps this current period is only a short respite from ther LIA?

    Tonyb

  22. Paul James: That is so hilarious. Its too bad we cannot do a similar pre- and post- 50-years-from -now interview with Hansen

  23. After years of good weather and good harvest of wheat and of production of wine in the beginning of the 14 century, suddenly the summers in the British Isles started to rain away and the temperature dropped.

    The world entered the Wolf minimum and the Great Famine hit Britain.
    A couple of decades later the plague arrived.
    Maybe there are parallels today.

  24. Americans just do not understand summer in the UK.
    I experienced the whole summer of 1992; it was a Wednesday in July between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm, when the sun broke through the clouds.

  25. @astronmr20,
    Eventually someone… or their boss.. or their boss, will get tired of being embarrassed. Nothing heads the same direction ad infinitum.

  26. If they don’t change their basic assumptions and keep their global warming model equation in, even their super-dupper computer will give [self-snip] predictions.

  27. The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.

  28. Poor Old Michael Fish. He actually got the forecast substantially correct even advising south coast viewers to ‘batten down the hatches’ but that part never gets shown.
    Still, the Met Office did get a new supercomputer out of it that time.
    Still trying?

  29. I know it’s forbidden to talk about H1N1 in WUWT, but this post is related with the main topic.

    Well… Insanity is a cosmopolitan disease. As you should know, my country is affected by an outbreak of A-H1N1 influenza. Yesterday, a guy who supposedly is a “great scientist and infectious diseases specialist” tried to relate the outbreak with global warming. The editorial which appeared in most important national newspapers said:

    “The great scientist and infectious diseases specialist, Fidel Herrera by name, explained overwhelmingly and unobjectionably that the outbreak of swine influenza occurred at Perote… …was due to the aggressive climate changes happened in the State during the last years…” (Milenio. 30 April 2009. Page 4).

    One more for adding to the insane list of 1000 ominous effects caused by global warming.

  30. Jack Mosevich –

    The Michael Fish non-Hurricane forecast is a classic in the UK. Poor old Michael never lived it down and to be fair to him he took the laughter at his expense extremely well. That he came back to TV and did the 20th anniversary forecast speaks well for his sense of humor.

    He carried on forecasting the weather on the BBC for many years only retiring in the last few. In those days the BBC’s weather forecasters were Met Office employees, I am not sure if that’s still the case.

  31. Alexej Buergi: That’s like our jokes in Oregon: “Last summer Oregonians saw a UFO-the sun.” “Oregonians don’t tan-they rust.” “Last year 300 Oregonians fell off their bicycles-and drowned.”

  32. A treat for Mr Watts.

    Google have just started to add some street view data to their service in the UK. To my great surprise, a stroke of luck, you can now see a standard Met Office weather station, if a minor one.

    So far as I know _not_ used for climatic work.

    This particular station is at a west London airfield which goes back to WW2 but today is used for government flights.

    The Met Station was in the standard RAF position next to the control tower.

    It was automated and moved. That is not a minor road even if it looks small, it is one of the primary routes into London and becomes the M40 motorway.

    I will give just the lat/long, copy into Google Earth. You will see the Street View icons, access as desired.

    51.548707° -0.416954°

  33. jack mosevich (12:51:14) :

    This is hillarious… they also wrote:

    “Their spirits were lifted briefly today when they heard the distant engines of a DC3 aircraft overhead. They thought their minds were playing tricks on them, but sure enough a DC3 did indeed fly within 13 miles of their camp. However, it was part of a Danish research expedition and not the Twin Otter they were hoping for.”

    Isn’t that the same plane that are measuring the ice thickness while on-board a nicely heated environment? But I though the experiment was over.

  34. I seem to recall that in the summer/autumn period last year, that the same Met Office was forecasting a warm,if not “the warmest” winter on record ! Today should have been torrential rain in our area according to the met forecast in the morning. All we got was a slight drizzle.
    Stick to “sunshine and showers” !

  35. Sorry but you have all missed the point. When the UK met office moved to Exeter a yaer or two back it was to be nearer the sea. You see, there is no seaweed in London or pine cones. It wasn’t a super computer they took with them to Exeter, they didn’t need to. They had tons of seaweed and pine cones and all the other weather forecasting tools they would need. Et voilà, seaweed dry drought is nigh, cone closed we will be frozed. Told you!!

  36. Actually this all reminds me of the economist joke: a certain economist predicted 7 of the past 3 recessions

  37. The Full Story So Far

    Summer forecast 2009

    Tue 31 Mar 2009

    Temperature

    For the UK and much of Western Europe temperatures are likely to be near average

    Rainfall

    At this stage forecast signals are too weak to provide an outlook for summer rainfall.

    Thursday 30 Mar 2009

    Temperature

    For the UK and much of Europe temperatures are likely to be above average.

    Rainfall

    For the UK and much of northern Europe rainfall is likely to be near or below average. A repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
    Average or below-average rainfall is also likely over Eastern Europe

  38. O/T but I am so sick of all of this climate alarmism and the statutes and taxes that are flowing from it, that I am seriously looking into lawful rebellion. This is when one casts off the false legal fiction of their “person” and lives as a free man on the land according to common law.

    These statutes are going to increasingly remove our freedoms and rights until we are little more than serfs on the free soil.

    One must make various lawful declarations to be signed by a notary and held by a court that declare one’s lawful understandings and commitments. Unchallenged these declarations are lawful documents which you can enforce in law against any act or statute.

    One must note the difference between a law and a statute. Common law flows from Natural Law being created by God, under which ALL men are equal before the law and all men are free. That all free men declare that they shall act in peace and never cause harm, injury or loss. (in law the term ‘man’ includes woman).

    Whereas a statute is a rule of society that only has the force of law with the consent of the governed. It is created by a court (Parliament) written by lawyers and only applies under admiralty law which is Law of the seas, or commercial contract law. Therefore a statute is basically a contract. We can refuse to grant consent, LAWFULLY. A statute is NOT a law, until the person consents to it binding upon them and therefore by that action consenting to act as if it is a law. Why do you think that they call statutes, ACTS! Consent is assumed in law by your inaction too. One must actively and lawfully deny consent for the act to be void upon your flesh and blood human being.

    As the legal maxim states: Consensus Facit Legem : Consent makes the law.

    That means that if we are to declare ourselves lawfully as free men on the land, we need not obey their statutes. The statutes can only apply to a legal person, which is separate and distinct from a flesh and blood man. A person in legal terms is a piece of paper that represents the human being. It is your birth certificate.

    For more information see tpuc.org

  39. Special for Erl Happ:

    The sun is very sultry and we must avoid its ultry-violet rays.

    H/t NC
    ========================================

  40. Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

    The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 -

    Believe it or not, London is not the only place in the UK. And as for “England” withstanding the Nazis, give us a rest. It’s about as likely to please the rest of the UK as saying that Texas or California or New York defeated the Japanese would please the rest of the USA. Where do Americans (and other foreigners) get this notion that England is the UK? The UK was created in 1707 – at least 70 years before the USA, so it’s hardly a new creation. An American lady I met in Germany said to me when I told her I came from Scotland: “Where’s that”! Help! (She should pay a bit more attention to the background of many of the Founding Fathers.)

    As for the people on the BBC who tell us the weather forecast many of them have a background totally outside weather forecasting (degrees in drama and things like that) although some of them have received ‘meterological training’ at the Met Office.

    It would have been nice of the Met Office to give us a warning with their forecast for this summer along the lines of “Our forecasts the last two summers have been totally wrong so you can treat this one with a large pinch of salt.”

    Having neighbours on either side of me who love BBQs I’ll be quite happy for the Met Office to be as spot on as they have been the last two summers.

  41. Anthony, don’t spoil our fun here in England – of course this will be a great summer if the met office says so (lol) and I think you quoted the wrong song try Flanders and Swan “June just rains and never stops thirty days and spoils the crops, in July the sun is hot, is it shining, no its not”

  42. The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.

    Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England.

    you need to check your facts.

    2007 was a hot year in the UK.

    Meanwhile, across the UK, 2007 is on course to become one of the warmest years on record. Even if the mean temperature for December is 1 °C below the 1971-2000 long-term average, the year will still be the third warmest since UK-wide records began in 1914. In this 94-year series, the last six years (2002-2007) are set to become the six warmest years.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20071213.html

    and you can check the seasons and year data for yourself:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/#

    hot spring. normal summer. warm autumn and extremely hot winter. a very hot year in total.

    REPLY: Perhaps you missed this “sod”?

    The Met Office press release today (quoted in the article) said that summer 2007 and 2008 were disappointingly wet.

    Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

    2007 was the wettest summer on record in England.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070831.html

    Hey, hows that “Seed Of Doubt – Iraq” blog working out for you? Stamped out the “surge” yet or are you now exclusively a climate troll? ;-) I’ve always found it comical that you doubt what governments have to say about Iraq and the data coming from there, but you’ll accept the weather/climate data purported to show AGW hook line and sinker without question. But you really aren’t worth time arguing with, your position is epoxied in place and secure playing the internet phantom. – Anthony

  43. With the AMO flipping negative I wonder what reality portends. At any rate, the certainty of 50% top tax rates should do something for Britain–make it more ethnically diverse via emigration.

  44. Since the stopped clock has been used a couple times …. I move on …. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.

  45. Right Flanagan.
    Done it yet?
    I agree, 2007 it is, but by so very little over say, 1730, it isn’t worth commenting on.
    1960 comes close too.
    So in 237 years, we’ve warmed by point squit of a degree.
    For Winter, it looks like 1870 gets the award, for Summer, then 1976 (Yes, I remember that one, glorious summer, with worries about a drought) and then 1826?

  46. Flanagan wrote:

    The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.

    Not discussed in the post? You mean you didn’t see the first sentence of the paragraph immediately following that? Here: Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England.

  47. Mike Nicholson (13:18:19) :

    I seem to recall that in the summer/autumn period last year, that the same Met Office was forecasting a warm,if not “the warmest” winter on record !

    Poor old Met Office. A few years ago, they rather tetchily responded to someone’s claim to make long-term forecasts that such things weren’t possible. They seem to have been right, as far as their own forecasts go, but Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction has been doing just that with sufficient success to have been banned by bookmaker Willam Hill from making bets against the MO.

    PC has just written an amusing letter to a government minister…

    http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=28&c=1

  48. It’ll be a typical British summer – 3 hot days followed by a thunderstorm. As Adam Gallon rightly says, 1976 was quite nice. That had nearly 3 hot months followed by a thunderstorm.

  49. @ Adam Gallon

    But don’t you understand the difference between weather and climate:-)?

    The site you linked to is very good.

  50. I have just watched the report on this on BBC News at 10. The reporter stated that seasonal forecasts were in their infancy and described them as somewhere between daily forecasts and climate change predictions.

    He then went on to report that there was a 35% chance that the forecast was wrong.

    Now, if there is a 35% chance the seasonal forecast is wrong… what does that say about the longer projections?

  51. Flanagan (12:53:18) :

    “The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post”.

    Flanagan,

    If you have a statement to make, get to the point.
    Don’t state that the 2007 UK MET OFFICE prediction was correct because it was not.

  52. Nicolla Scafettais predicting global cooling till about 2030 – 2040
    See:
    “Climate Change and Its causes: A Discussion about Some Key Issues”
    N. Scafetta. Invited author at the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, DC USA, February 26, 2009. Especially Slide 66. Scafetta finds CO2 sensitivity to be about 1/3 of the IPCC.

    In 2001, Don Easterbrook predicted global cooling from about 2007 ’till about 2038 based on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and glacier trends. That is 2 deg F below the IPCC’s prediction by 2038!

    They appear to have better models than the Met.

  53. jack mosevich (12:51:14) :

    OT- the Catlin team re-supply has been postponed for another day. This just updated a few minutes ago:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice

    Their “Latest from the Ice” report appears to be lagging. If it was the Danish DC3 they heard then according to the Inconvenient Eisdicken story on WUWT those flights ended on April 28. So it has been at least two days since they heard those engines.

  54. I wrote this to the Met Office after reading the March 09 criticism of the accuracy of the Winter forecast in “wattsupwitthat”. Their reply is after my posting.

    I give them points for their detailed response to my non-friendly analysis

    Start 3/5/09 posting to Met Office

    To UK Met Office website education email

    I wasn’t able to find individuals to contact, just general email addresses.

    I found the website to be full of congratulatory information on how well you are doing, how valuable, your work is, and how all doubts about man made global warming has been resolved.

    As one who has read the Technical sections of IPCC reports, which are replete with qualifications about how much more we need to understand, the Met Office website reads like a catechism of MMGB (man made global warming) Believers.

    I have two scientific degrees. But more importantly, in high school, I learned how true scientific method is always challenging and examining the data to make sure its theories and hypothesis can stand.

    No deviation from doctrine, no heretical qualifications, absolute religious fervor about the True Path.

    An yet, the Path lead to false doctrine in that it predicted the coming of the Messiah (increasingly hotter summers and warmer winters) and missed the coldest winter in 13 years.

    The UK Met Office famously forecast this past winter to be “milder than average.“

    25 September 2008
    The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average.

    Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning.

    The meteorological winter is over, and the official results are in :

    The UK had its coldest winter for 13 years, bucking a recent trend of mild temperatures, the Met Office has said.

    The average mean temperature across December, January and February was 3.1C – the lowest since the winter beginning in 1995, which averaged 2.5C.

    This missed forecast falls on the heels of two consecutive incorrect summer forecasts , both of which were forecast to be warm but turned out to be complete washouts. However, the Met Office appears undaunted by their recent high profile forecasting failures, and they continue in their quest to educate the public about the imminent threat of global warming. (end)

    4/29/09 Below is the Met Office response to my criticism. jgf

    REF0002867

    Dear Mr Fox

    Thank you for your e-mail of 5 March 2009 regarding climate change and Met Office seasonal forecasts, in particular for the winter just passed. I apologise for the delay in replying to you.

    Seasonal forecasting is still a developing area for the Met Office and should still be considered experimental, although we would hope they are becoming increasingly reliable. Their “target audience” is, to a large extent, government planners and we have received much positive feedback from those customers who have used them over the last few years. That said we hope members of the public find them useful as well and we are pleased to note your interest.

    Seasonal trends in weather affect large geographic areas, so the seasonal forecast for the UK is set in the broader context of Europe as a whole. We are also looking at trends over a longer period – the actual weather will be subject to many sub-regional and local variations.

    Whilst it is true that the first forecast for winter 2008-2009 thought it more likely that temperatures would be close to average or a little above average, though we foresaw that this winter would be less mild than last year. This was the best forecast possible from the information available to us at that time. Subsequent updates modified this forecast to indicate the likelihood of colder temperatures at the start of winter, and more recently persisting through January and February.

    Clearly we would have liked to have given earlier indication of the colder temperatures experienced in most parts of the UK during December and January. Forecasts for further ahead are looking at the likelihood of future event occurring among other possibilities – so are by their nature much more general and subject to change. Certainly, long range forecasts are not the appropriate place to try to predict individual weather events, such as the unusually severe frosts experienced in the early weeks of January or the recent disruptive snowfall in southern and eastern England and later in northern England and parts of Scotland. However, in these cases we were able to issue forecasts well in advance which successfully predicted where the major risk of disruption would be, due to improvements to our numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in recent years.

    Because of these forecasts, we were able to provide essential, timely advice to the emergency services and our other government and commercial customers. For individual weather events the best advice we can give is to continue to keep up to date with our forecasts for up to five days ahead via radio, television and our web site. Colleagues will obviously be looking to further improve the usefulness of seasonal forecasts as these develop in the future.

    I can assure you that no Met Office forecast is governed by any other consideration than the information available, certainly not the need to “prove” or otherwise the case for or against human induced climate change, which we firmly believe has been established. The Met Office is a scientific organisation which bases its decisions, conclusions and forecasts on established evidence and facts. The Met Office Hadley Centre is the UK’s national centre for climate change research. Partly funded by Defra (the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), the newly-established Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Ministry of Defence, the Hadley Centre provides in-depth information to the Government and advise them on climate change issues using expert scientific evidence. Our climate scientists undertake studies of the global climate using similar, though more extensive, models of the atmospheres, as are used for the prediction of weather conditions.

    The issues you raise around climate change and many others have been comprehensively addressed in the peer reviewed scientific literature. This information is freely available in the public domain, including, as you have correctly referred to, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who have produced a detailed list of FAQs at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html. The Met Office Hadley Centre publication “Climate Change and the greenhouse effect: a briefing from the Hadley Centre” is also available to download free of charge at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/ and you may also find the following news release on the Met Office web site helpful: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080923c.html.

    Whilst we would agree that areas of uncertainty remain, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that human induced climate change is real and poses a serious threat. In its Fourth Assessment Review, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that there is unequivocal evidence from observations that the Earth is warming. It further stated and that most of the observed warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in man-made greenhouse gas concentrations. By “very likely”, the IPCC means a 90% probability or greater. This broad climate change message has also been strongly supported by the world’s top Academy of Sciences, including the Royal Society in the UK and the National Academy of Sciences in the USA.

    The national science academies of the G8 nations and Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, have signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action and calls on world leaders to take such action.

    In view of this, the Met Office firmly believes that climate research has captured the essential aspects of what is causing our planet to warm. It is now time to move on and look at strategies for adaptation and mitigation; better defining uncertainty and improving regional detail in climate models. This is where our efforts will and should be directed.

    Our seasonal forecast was the best possible from the information available to us but we are aware that as conditions change there would be the need for updates, which is what we have done. We will obviously look to develop and improve these forecasts over the years to come, as we have with our shorter range forecasts. A forecast for, or weather conditions experienced during an individual season neither proves or disproves a case for climate change, which is already firmly established.

    Thank you for your interest and for taking the time to contact the Met Office.

    Yours sincerely

    Martin Kidds Customer Feedback Manager

    Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom

    Tel: 0870 900 0100 or +44 (0)1392 88 5680 Fax: +44 (0)1392 88 5681

    E-mail: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

  55. And if ever the UK Met Office supercomputer is wrong:

    “Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others.”
    Groucho Marx
    US comedian with Marx Brothers (1890 – 1977)

  56. Flanagan,

    2007 was a year of great disappointment for the alarmists. They started out forecasting Super-El Nino and ended up whining about La Nina. The Met Office forecast “warmest year ever” and then came out with this statement on December 13

    “The provisional global figure, using data from January to November, currently places 2007 as the seventh warmest on record since 1850.

    before the cold La Nina December data could be figured in to rain on their parade further.

  57. In response to CodeTech (12:16:47) : “They can’t be basing their prediction on anything other than hope.”

    I think its much more interesting than that. The Hadley Center/Met Office is one of the few meterological organizations that uses the Global Circulation Models (the ones used to predict global warming) and actually tries to make long range weather forecasts with them. In essence, they are showing the world the robustness of their predictions. I actually prefer this to simulations 100 years on that no one will be around to prove or disprove. It would be interesting to look at the Met Office predictions and compare these with people who focus more on the set up in the oceans for the coming season.

  58. Hopeforwarming: These were two different aircraft on two different missions.
    Note the Catliners will not be resupplied until Saturday.

  59. One of the tribe asked the Indian chief,

    “Is it going to be a hard winter?”

    The chief said,

    “Go collect firewood and I’ll consult the stars tonight and tell you.”

    Being new to the job and a 21st century type of guy the chief really hadn’t a clue about the old ways, so the next day he phoned the local ranger station. They told him, Yes it looks bad, so he told his tribe to collect more fire wood every day for a week and he phoned again to see if there were any more predictions. Once again the ranger told him it looks like its going to be a really long, cold, bad winter so the chief gathered the tribe and told them they must go and collect as much firewood as possible

    A few days later he phoned again and asked the same question only to be told that the weather for winter looks really terrible and it will last a really long time.

    He asked the ranger how he could make such a prediction and what was it based on.

    The ranger replied, “It’s the Indians. They’re gathering fire wood like crazy !!”

  60. The UK Met Office have made some changes to reach the conclusion about this year’s UK weather forecast.

    They have a new piece of seaweed, bigger than the last bit. The string is also longer and recycled.

    They now have a penny with COLD on one side and HOT on the other.

    The master stroke is helping to save the Planet by not switching on their computer…………..

  61. Anyone who spent the summer of 2007 in the UK knows this to be true.

    News release
    31 August 2007
    Summer 2007 – a wet season
    This summer looks set to have been the wettest since UK rainfall records began in 1914, Met Office figures revealed today.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070831.html

    There were almost no warm days that summer, with daytime temperatures well below normal. The humidity kept nighttime temperatures up, which allowed the Met Office statisticians the opportunity to pretend they were saving face.

  62. I wish all these climate prognosticators would put their predictions on the commodities market.

    We could then promptly go short on them and make a bundle.

  63. Indeed, I read this on a new website earlier and my only thought was, “good luck with that”. There’s nothing quite like setting yourself up to be shot down is there?

  64. If anyone listened to the BBC 9 O’Clock News on YouTube, which was about 12 Hours after the Storm Hit, the Newsreader said “The Storm is now approaching the Arctic Circle” LOL!

  65. I know this posting is about the UK Met Office and Steven makes a skilled connection between the predictions and the British character but what has to be said is the following.

    1. It is not only the UK MET OFFICE that is spreading warmist predictions.
    2. Warmist predictions are spread by all National Meteorological Organizations world wide.
    3. We have the UN IPCC pushing the AGW scam but it is also the World Meteorological
    Organization.
    4. Read about their organization structure here: http://www.wmo.ch/pages/about/wmo_structure_en.html
    They translate climate policies and tell the National Weather Organizations which tune they must whistle.

    The focus is now directed at the UK Met Office, but for the same money you could point your focus to the KNMI (Royal Dutch Met Office) to come up with a comparable story.

    It would be a good thing if people really understand what is going on and that all the arrows point to the United Nations as the spider in the web.

  66. “jack mosevich (14:45:35) :

    Hopeforwarming: These were two different aircraft on two different missions”

    It has to be the same aircraft on a different mission – see below for the mission. Obviously the weather is too rough for the Twin Otter to operate and I am guessing the the DC3 is too big to land for a resupply drop.

    “The custom-designed aircraft to be used during the mission, described by Verhoef as the only one of its kind in North America, can accommodate large banks of surveying equipment, and can complete tricky takeoffs and landings in rugged Arctic conditions.

    The plane is owned by Kenn Borek Air Ltd., a Calgary-based charter service specializing in Arctic and Antarctic flights”

    http://www.canada.com/Danish+Canadian+scientists+Arctic+Ocean/1398916/story.html

  67. ralph,

    Central England has become essentially one big city, or at least it seems that way when driving around Birmingham at rush hour.

  68. My forecast for the summer is “becoming warmer with more daylight” followed by my winter forecast of “colder and darker earlier”.

    Can I have a supercomputer?

  69. But for the real enthousiasm you have to go to the Yorkshire fire brigade. Last year they put out a press release yet again emphasizing that because of you know what we could expect droughts and the danger of wild fires that comes with them, all very bad for the local wild animal population.

    The press release was on about the wettest day of this Century, even soaking for Yorkshire standards.

    You have to admire that spirit!

  70. “Flanagan (12:53:18) : The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.”

    They were wrong. There. It’s been discussed.

  71. The Catlin thing isn’t funny any more. Why don’t they just admit they were wrong/misguided/unlucky/completely vindicated and come back home?

    My forecast there is that if something bad happens then it won’t be the mission planners to blame. My opinion is that they need to take responsibility now and call the whole thing off before anyone gets more hurt than they are already.

    On a lighter note, where could anyone hide beef stew? Bemused minds want to know!

  72. flanagan / Adam Gallon
    Sorry to disappoint both you guys but if you go to http://hadobs.metoffice.com//hadcet/cetml1659on.dat, you’ll find that 2007 doesn’t even figure in the top ten! And since the Met Office forecast that the summer of 07 was going to be the warmest on record they sure as hell weren’t going to mention that because JN/JL/AUG that year averaged out at 180th out of 350 with a temp of 15.2 on a par with the year that Nelson won at Trafalgar and the year the Yanks started getting uppity and decided to go off on their own!
    Face it, flanagan. You’re losing this one!

  73. Seem to recall that for the winter of 2008-2009 forecast, the Met office made an explicit upward adjustment, to reflect their estimate of the impact of global warming. Does the new forecast also include an upward adjustment for global warming? If so, would it be rude to request that the Met provide two forecasts, one that excludes any arbitrary upward adjustment for global warming, and the other that explicitly does? The unadjusted forecast could be a reasonable one.

  74. Just Want Truth… (16:01:36) :

    TYPO

    “forecasts for summer 08, summer 09″

    rather

    “forecasts for summer 07, summer 08″

  75. I often think: “the AGW phenomenon is more about Sociology and Psychology than Climatology”.

    The major news organizations will trumpet the extreme annual Climatological predictions, trumpet the rare success, and never mention the failures. That will get them where they want to go — given human Sociology and Psychology.

  76. BBC, how amazing, reports about the Scottish famine during the Maunder Minimum and UK Met Office restates that the sun is only one of the many drivers responsible for our climate! Funny that the Scot experience from the past is neglected by a fellow Scottsman who now happens to be the Prime Minister of Great Brittan and prepares his country for runaway Global Warming.

    Great Britain is the first county in the world to have adopted harsh legislation to reduce CO2 emissions.

    It will also be the first country to go broke because of that legislation, beating its citizens with immense costs to pay for their retarded policies.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8010513.stm

  77. Sod 14 49 30

    You seem to have accidentally left off some figures.

    It must be pointed out once again that the vast majority of the CET figures from 1659 occured during the LIA, yet we still have figures from them that match the modern ones (which due to resiting of the stations exhibit some degree of UHI).

    The mean average of the older figures was reduced because of the cold winters experienced during the LIA -not enhanced by warm summers-as I stated in my post 12 34 41.

    1733 10.47
    1736 10.30
    1779 10.40
    1781 10.20
    1828 10.30
    1834 10.47
    1868 10.38
    1921 10.47
    1959 10.48

    Are you seriously putting forward the argument that we are suffering catastrophic global warming with a temp difference of 0.01C betwen 1733 and 2007? Is that your contention?

    Is it not more interesting to wonder why the recovery from the depths of the LIA is so small as to be barely measurable by anyone except those with a financial or political agenda they wish to promote?

    Bearing in mind these are mostly LIA figures, if we put them into context against the MWP or the Roman Warm Period or the Holocenes, it seems to me that our recovery is so weak it could be argued that we are still in the LIA.

    Tonyb

  78. Flanagan (14:08:29) :

    You are quite right that the paper you linked to is interesting. You also totally misrepresented the conclusions of that paper. Try showing a little integrity.

  79. The UK channel Sky News carried the prediction and in doing so linked it to the waning of the La Nina and the warming Pacific. Broadcast is available here.

    http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Summer-Forecast-Long-Term-Weather-Preditions-For-2009-From-The-Met-Office/Article/200904415272552?lpos=UK_News_News_Your_Way_Region_6&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15272552_Summer_Forecast%3A_Long-Term_Weather_Preditions_For_2009_From_The_Met_Office

    The video link is to the left, the blog account is somewhat more pragmatic about the Met Office track record. :)
    I did comment to the blog regarding the Pacific ocean temperature and referenced a negative PDO report but it was not published.

    I did try making a short URL but it fails.

    Mick.

  80. Let the Met office make their predictions. I don’t understand what they have to gain from this type of guesswork.
    Remember the basic priciple of English law , in order to prove guilt the evidence has to be beyond any reasonable doubt.
    This simple principle, dates back to Magna Carta 794 years ago. Every Engish speaking country’s legal system is based om Magna Carta.
    To those who don’t understand or deny this fundamental point, explain why this does not apply to alleged climate change?

  81. sod,
    sorry but I don’t agree.
    I’ve just checked the figures again and the top 10 according to the CET figures are:

    2006 10.82
    1990 10.63
    1999 10.63
    1949 10.62
    2002 10.60
    1997 10.53
    1995 10.52
    1989 10.50
    2003 10.50
    1959 10.48
    Nobody’s disputing that the climate has been warming during the 30 years from the mid-1970s but note that 1998 doesn’t show and the following year (still, we presume, showing the El Nino effect) couldn’t do better than 1990.
    2008, incidentally, came in at 47th!

  82. Even a broken clock is ….

    NO, A broken clock is still broken! Fix or replace the clock. Because on the odd chance you look at the clock when it isn’t right, it WILL tell you the wrong time.

    And I thought economics was the only profession where an esteemed member of the profession could be wrong all of the time and still be esteemed.

  83. Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.”

    Why was he “disappointed” that there were no scorching summers and hoping for one this year? He’s supposed to be an impartial observer and reporter of facts, not a fan of Global Warming.

  84. “BrianMcL (15:58:37) : The Catlin thing isn’t funny any more. Why don’t they just admit they were wrong/misguided/unlucky/completely vindicated and come back home?”

    It might be that in their thinking they don’t know yet if they are right or wrong. They are collecting data that will be analized at a later time. If that is the case they can’t know today if they are right or wrong.

    “…take responsibility now and call the whole thing off before…”

    Going by history Pen Hadlow isn’t one to call things off when circumstances are saying to call things off. Someone else may have to make that call, someone watching from the outside.

  85. Sod

    Admittedly anecdotal, but I couldnt resist repeating this letter from The Daily Telegraph of 29 April 2009 as it matches the debate about a virtually non existent change in our climate over the last 350 years

    “The medieval Welsh cuckoo and climate change

    SIR – On Monday, we heard our first cuckoo, and indeed, regular as cuckoo-clockwork, they have returned to the St David’s peninsula in the last week of April during the past 38 years.

    A few miles away, at Nevern, there is a delightful legend that the cuckoo came on St Brynach’s feast day, the seventh day of April, and
    sat on Saint Brynach’s stone. The priest would not begin Mass until the bird had appeared, but one year it was late arriving and “when
    she came at last, lighting on the said stone, her accustomed preaching place, being scarce able once to sound the note, presently fell dead”.

    George Owen wrote this story in the 17th century, but it is certainly of medieval oral tradition.

    The change of calendar in 1752 took away 11 days so the medieval cuckoo actually arrived on what is now April 18.
    After the best part of perhaps a 1,000 years the modern bird is just a few days later, despite supposed climate change.

    Dr John Etherington
    Llanhowell, Pembrokeshire”

    tonyb

  86. Does not matter, the taxes are coming…..and the leaders that are taxing and spending like demons, they need to remember one man.

    Louis XVI

    :-(

  87. maz2 (15:56:09) :
    “Weather Forecast in Anglican Chant”

    That is AWESOME !! :)

    I wish the weather channel adopted that style

  88. Ding dong the hoax is dead, pay more in taxes to the government so government scientists can pretend to control the weather. And how would we know they were only pretending?

    It’s ‘all in time’ for those taxes, we all need. Everything is coming down to it’s an emergency don’t you know.

    Watching that ice melt with it’s cracks is really funny.

  89. maz2 (16:24:47) :

    As my wife and I were checking out of the Hotel St. David in St. David, Wales, the sun was shining brightly. We had awakened to a light snow which became sleet, which became rain, which became a bright sunny morning.

  90. “Cathy (12:22:57) :
    I love these posts that produce the best comments on the internet.
    Thanks, Anthony. It’s good to have a few chuckles at the expense of the warmers.”

    “Katherine (12:27:02) :
    Maybe there’s a method behind their madness. If their forecast is wrong, they’ll have justification for buying another supercomputer to improve their forecasting capabilities. If it’s right, then by Jove, that new supercomputer was just the thing!”

    Two very good points:

    Cathy, my thoughts exactly. I had a read and a great laugh. A wonderful way to start the day. Thanks Anthony (again!)

    Katherine: has raised a very good point. My experience with automating activities is that all too often, technology is used to address shortcomings in processes. If the underlying process or concept is flawed, no amount of automation, no amount of increasing computing power, will fix the problem.

    Right now, my guess as to what Britain’s summer will be like on average is probably as good, if not better, than the Met’s, and same applies to most of the readers at WUWT.

    The reason is for this simple: The Met’s forecast is based on a simple premise, that CO2 is increasing, that CO2 causes global warming, and therefore the summer must end up being warmer than in the past. It’s a simple 1+1=2. That they keep getting the forecasts wrong should be alerting the Met to the fact that the real equation is X+Y=Z, where the values of X. Y, and Z are all unknown.

    The Met will go hard for a new Supercomputer (in fact aren’t they getting a new Sterling 140 million one?) so they can run more 1+1 formulas. If the computer spits out the same answer, but 100 times more times, then that answer must be right, and it’s the weather that’s wrong, dammit!

  91. Willamette Valley, Oregon definition of the Sun: A brighter than normal cloud.

    England’s definition of the Sun: A brighter than normal fog.

    There are those of us up North that don’t give a rat’s ass if lands South of us fry in AGW temperatures. We just want to get a tan for the first time in our fricken life!

  92. Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II

    “Nazis” doesn’t take an apostrophe here. It’s a plural, not a possessive. ;)

  93. Just Want Truth,
    They’ve spent the last six days (and counting) in a tent thinking about maths and have taken 16 ice core samples of their immediate area.
    Assuming they’re not trying to sink the ice I can only assume that they’re still under the impression that they’re conducting some kind of research. Don’t scientists normally analyse their data?

    They’ve published a paper on their website claiming surprise at a lack of first year ice. Given where they started, however, this is probably because they expected to be much further North by now. If they had made the progress they had expected we can probably assume that they’d have reached thicker ice a while ago.
    The conclusion of their research was established long before they started their experiment.

    Surely it’s not too much to expect that they would have spent at least some of the last 6 days looking at their manual records and compared it to what they expected before they left Blightly? That must be a more important contribution to science than playing I Spy in a tent in a blizzard in the arctic.

    Also, I think they should be the last in line to decide when they should be rescued. Their research has at best limited validity, they’re stuck in a tent running out of food, the weather is too cold and wild to move, they’ll never get close to their destination and they’ve had frostbite and hypothermia for weeks. Why trust their judgement on anything?

  94. Ron de Haan (15:17:13) :

    3. We have the UN IPCC pushing the AGW scam but it is also the World Meteorological Organization.

    The acronym for World Meteorological Organization is WMO, which sounds like “humo” in Spanish; “humo” does mean “smoke” in English. All things have easy explanations… Heh!

  95. The mildest winter I ever enjoyed was a summer in England.

    I am sure the Metservice got the forecast right more often in the past when it was based on observation and knowledge, now they rely blindly on models that are clearly incapable of making long term weather forecasts!

    They have become a joke in the UK!

  96. BrianMcL (17:28:00) :
    Just Want Truth,
    They’ve spent the last six days (and counting) in a tent thinking about maths and have taken 16 ice core samples of their immediate area.
    Assuming they’re not trying to sink the ice I can only assume that they’re still under the impression that they’re conducting some kind of research. Don’t scientists normally analyse their data?

    Surely it’s not too much to expect that they would have spent at least some of the last 6 days looking at their manual records and compared it to what they expected before they left Blightly?

    Do you think a sientist would be capable of doing these measurements under these conditions. Why should they (not scientists as they admit) analyse the data. They are collecting it ONLY. Others will analyse.

  97. Brian (14:48:06) :

    I heard a version of that joke that switched things around a bit. It stated an old Indian was asked how he was always able to correctly predict the severity of the winter. Did he note the thickness of the rabbit’s fur? The abundance of the acorn crop? He replied, “Me go check size of white man’s woodpile.”

  98. The idiots at the UK Met Office ought to be looking out their windows rather than their computer screens.

  99. Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

    Am I the only one terribly disturbed by this comment? (Sorry, I haven’t read through any of the comments.)

    He’s openly admitting that if presumed AGW slows, reverses, or even turns out to be wrong that he’ll be dissapointed!? He WANTS AGW?

    Is that because he believes global warming to be a good thing, or because it’s more important for the AGW crowd to be *right* than it is for the climate to do what’s “good” for the earth (plants, animals, peoples, etc.)?

  100. bill (17:45:58) :

    Do you think a sientist would be capable of doing these measurements under these conditions. Why should they (not scientists as they admit) analyse the data. They are collecting it ONLY. Others will analyse.

    Not scientists? Wow! I’m surprised.

    Catlin’s page suggests it’s science what they are doing over there:

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/science

    The Catlin Arctic Survey combines a pioneering feat of human endurance with scientific discovery: an accurate mapping of a transect across one of Earth’s largest geophysical surface features: the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover.

  101. “Do you think a sientist would be capable of doing these measurements under these conditions. Why should they (not scientists as they admit) analyse the data. They are collecting it ONLY. Others will analyse.”

    Speaking as a scientist, it’s only under the most well-defined and controlled of circumstances that I ever seriously consider letting non-scientists take scientific data (except of course as a teaching exercise). This is for many reasons, but in particular to this case, because a scientist is trained by experience to recognize when they are (inadvertently or otherwise) cherry-picking their measurements. This can happen for multiple reasons – like it’s easier to drill through the flat, thin ice than it is to drill through the rough, thick ice. (In fact, taking the “easy” measurement is by far the most common cause of data bias among inexperienced scientists and non-scientists performing experiments).

    But, hey, how can *I* question the motives or techniques of those brave tent-bound souls who are about to start endangering lives other than their own?

  102. Is it possible that the spokesman was disappointed by the poor summer weather for the same reason everyone else was? Perhaps he just wanted to go to the beach with his family. No need to read any more into it than that.

  103. Dedicated to the Met Office – “we must get a winner one day”.

    “The End of the World”

    From the revue that really launched the ‘satire’ boom, the 1961 Beyond The Fringe. The cast: Peter Cook, Jonathan Miller, Dudley Moore and Alan Bennett. They are seated, huddled, on the top of a mountain…

    Jon : How will it be, this end of which you have spoken, Brother Enim?
    Omnes: Yes, how will it be?
    Peter : Well, it will be, as ’twere a mighty rending in the sky, you see, and the mountains shall sink, you see, and the valleys shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
    Jon : Will the veil of the temple be rent in twain?
    Peter : The veil of the temple will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
    Alan : And will there be a mighty wind, Brother Enim?
    Peter : Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by…
    Dudley : And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?
    Peter : No – it will not be quite as mighty as that – that is why we have come up on the mountain, you stupid nit – to be safe from it. Up here on the mountain we shall be safe – safe as houses.
    Alan : And what will happen to the houses?
    Peter : Well, naturally, the houses will be swept away and the tents of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the heavens and on earth – and serve them right!
    Alan : And shall we be consumed?
    Peter : Con..sum..éd? No, we shall not be consuméd – we shall be up on the mountain here, you see, while millions burn, having a bit of a giggle.
    Jon : When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
    Omnes : Aye, when will it be – when will it be?
    Peter : In about thirty seconds time, according to the ancient pyramidic scrolls… and my Ingersoll watch.
    Jon : Shall we compose ourselves, then?
    Peter : Good plan, Brother Pithy. Prepare for the End of the World! Fifteen seconds…
    Alan : Have we got the tinned food?
    Dudley : Yes.
    Peter : Ten seconds…
    Jon : And the tin-opener?
    Dudley : Yes.
    Peter : Five – four – three – two – one – Zero!
    Omnes : (Chanting) Now is the end – Perish The World!
    A pause

    Peter : It was GMT, wasn’t it?
    Jon : Yes.
    Peter : Well, it’s not quite the conflagration I’d been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow… we must get a winner one day.

  104. “Our researches show the recent general world cooling will continue and contrary to the claims of Global Warming and related models there will no significant El Nino or associated warming effects in 2009. “The Met Office’s recent forecast that the world in 2009 will be in the warmest 5 on record will fail, instead 2009 is likely to be similar to or colder than 2008. All their recent climate forecasts have failed and this one will too. It is high time that politicians recognised reality so I challenge the Met Office to a bet that their forecast will fail and world temperatures 2009 will be cooler than the ‘top 5′.”

    ~Piers Corbyn

    http://www.lowefo.com/pdf/News090106.pdf

  105. “BrianMcL (17:28:00) : Don’t scientists normally analyse their data?”

    What are they comparing it too? How can they know if they are successful or not? That was my point. They don’t know right now what they’ve achieved

  106. I say chaps, the seaweed is looking a bit dry but the crystal ball is looking clear. Right it’s time for our new forecast process, err ok chaps & chapesses, power on, check, flashing lights on, check, great background music on, check, right…. altogether now, “Eeenie meeenie minie mo, make the weather come & go, will it be hot or will it be cold, make a guess & make it be bold!!!!!!”

    I’ve contacted Piers Corbyn’s weatheraction.com for a comment after I picked myself off the floor & checked myself into casualty just to make sure I hadn’e broken anything in the process. The glee & exictement with which this was spouted out over the lunchtime news was staggering, although I must say the “weather girl” who delivered this gem (& I say chaps, ay what, she was an absolute cracker, WOW, nudge nudge wink wink – I’ve just got to lay down in a darkened room now) did display a slight reticence about the accuracy, it’s all in the eyes you know! Apparently it’s all to do with those robots in the pacific according to the bbc this morning sending the right signals & that’s the basis chaps?

  107. Just Want Truth… (16:32:18) :
    “Going by history Pen Hadow isn’t one to call things off when circumstances are saying to call things off. Someone else may have to make that call, someone watching from the outside.”

    It should be the pilot of the rescue aircraft that makes that call. No one else.

    And leave Hadow there if he has a hissy fit!

  108. Reasons for this forecast:

    1. The Govt want Brits to book a summer holiday at home – reduce the balance of payments deficit.
    2. The Govt would like foreigners to take a holiday in Britain too!
    3. The Govt think that unless people think it will be hot, then they will go to France or Spain again.
    4. They fail to understand that the people who holiday at home do so for only two reasons:
    i. They want to.
    ii. They can’t afford anything else.

    So if the Govt just said: look chaps, far better all round for the economy if more of stay home this summer, more might respond.

    But when did a Govt ever do that: good heavens, if you turned the masses into sentient critical people they might look a bit more closely at what the Govt DID!

    And then where would we be?

    Eh????

  109. Does anyone know if there is a good weather forecast here in the UK? As a gardener, I’ve been following the BBC’s, but it’s becoming a joke. They even got the ‘live’ weather wrong last week!!! I mean, they only had to look out the window! My veg is out (pardon madam) and I don’t want to lose anything to an unpredicted frost.

  110. Eventually they’ll get one right.
    1000 days without a 30°C day. Eventually it’s bound to happen.

    This MET office is giving Hansen’s GISS a real run for the money on who’s the biggest joke.

  111. People want to know how to do short term weather forecasting in the UK. Here is how. Look at the Met Office rainfall radar chart and run the movie. Then make your own commonsense prediction based on where the rain is going. If you make your forecasts in the morning for the coming day, you’ll be right 90% of the time if you confine your forecast to rain/not rain.

    The Met Office will quite often be found to issue a forecast at 7am, which tells you that where you are living will be dry or wet at 8am, and when you look out the window, you’ll find its just the opposite. As for forecasts 5 days out, they will change several times before you get there.

    I can forecast stock prices like this too. I say on Monday that GM will rise to 6 on Friday. Monday I forecast 4. Tuesday 5, Thursday 6. Friday it is 7 and I proclaim success. I was real close!

    And we are paying for this!

  112. rephelan,

    I don’t know why you are questioning Flanagan’s integrity. The lower plot of figure 6 in the Egan and Mullin paper shows precisely what he states:

    “…people tend to belief in global warming as a function of their local temperature. In cold and temperate places, those supporting global waming are the ones with the highest level of education, whose opinion is relatively constant whatever the local temperatures.”

  113. If you actually look past the headlines, the Met Office have a pretty good chance of being right. Look at the 2 key statements

    1. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average

    The average UK summer temperature for 1971-2000 is 14.1 deg C. Only 2 summers out of the last 20 have failed to exceed that figure – some quite significantly – so they’re almost certain to get the temperature bit right.

    2. and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

    Again this has a better than even chance of being correct. It’s unlikely we’ll get the continuous weather fronts that plagued the UK in the past 2 years, so they’re probably not going to be far wrong here.

    I also agree with an earlier poster that this may have been spun in a way so as to appeal to holidaymakers to stay in the UK.

  114. Have the MET and the licensed media ever been right with their newish long range forecasts?

    Roll on the day when all publicliy funded data collectors are forced to allow the paying public to see it, for free. It would be the most effective oversight.

  115. Britannic no-see-um (15:14:48) :

    Ash before oak, in for a soak
    Oak before ash, only a splash

    But even yet, this old countyfolk saying has been pressed into into service by AGW environmentalism. See our friend Charles Clover in

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3343188/Ash-no-longer-a-contender-to-leaf-before-oak.html

    I’ve got oak and ash all around and right now they’re both bursting out.

    Brittanic The Ash was out before the oak by I think three weeks. Therefore we are in for a splash?

  116. This is the sort of thing we have to contend with in the UK, whose authorities are convinced we are heading rapidly for a mediterranean climate. All the gardening programmes for years have been telling us to take up our traditional plants and change them for drought tolerant and heat resistant ones as we head for hotter and drier summers. Some of these in my garden were swept away by the summer rain whilst others have succumbed to the cold. But they must be right, so as it is the 1st of May I will be swapping my thick sweater for a thinner one.

    The full 20 minute version of ‘Changing Climate, Changing Business’ is available to watch on South West Tourism’s website at: http://www.swtourism.org.uk/our-strategic-work/sustainability-work/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/. A 6 minute, summary version can also be viewed at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3IOGy8WMGg

    For more information about climate change impacts and adaptation in the South West, visit: http://www.oursouthwest.com/climate/ or for tourism-related information and support visit http://www.swtourism.org.uk/.

    Tonyb

  117. This is a fascinating gamble by the Met Office. With the tropical Atlantic the coldest since 1994, and the north Atlantic ice extent the highest for 1 May in at least 7 years, the downside to their gamble is considerable as another unforeseen shift in weather patterns combined with the cool sea temperatures could produce a summer even cooler than the last 2 years. The odds do appear to favour the MetO, but like I say there is a real chance it could prove spectacularly wrong.

  118. The emphasis on particular years as “hottest on record” and “ten of the hottest years have been in the last whatever” is quite silly.

    If the situation were reversed to promote global cooling, a press release in 1698 for example, could have said “eight of the coldest years have occurred in the last 15 years”.

    Bethany, Ron de Haan, I agree.
    For a good insight into the continuing quest for global governance by the UN see this: http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO/Global_Governance_1.htm

  119. I’m sure it will go someting like this…..

    The UK MET office will predict above average hot summers year in, year out. Eventually when such a summer occurs they will then claim the world is near tipping point of runaway AGW and the media will run the headline stories.

    It’s all very predictable !

  120. Hit the wrong button … so I don’t know if my earlier incomplete post went through. Here is the full Monty.

    Agree with those who question the counting of spots that only can be seen with modern telescopes generally placed on mountains. Europe, where most of the 17-19th century telescopes were located, is not noted for its continuous clear sunny days.

    The best technical presentation I’ve come across of historical sunspots, and how sunspots are measured, with all the variations around the measurements and calculations is the article:

    Dances with Wolf’s: A Short History of Sunspot Indices

    Contributed by Carl E. Feehrer (FEEC)

    Revised August 2000

    http://www.aavso.org/observing/programs/solar/dances.shtm

    He also discusses the benefits and problems with the 4 major indices:
    Wolf
    (R) Zurich
    (Rz) International
    (Ri) American (Ra)

    Best article on this subject that I’ve come across.

    Since sunspots are crude surrogates for solar activity, modern solar instruments that measure total solar irradiance, mass ejections, and all other electromagnetic activities will, over extended time, replace this highly subjective measurement.

    Future generations will be puzzled with our intense divination of them for our use predictions as we are with the Romans divination and prophecy using flights of birds (augary).

  121. Merrick (19:04:52) :
    Speaking as a scientist, it’s only under the most well-defined and controlled of circumstances that I ever seriously consider letting non-scientists take scientific data (except of course as a teaching exercise). … (In fact, taking the “easy” measurement is by far the most common cause of data bias among inexperienced scientists and non-scientists performing experiments).

    I would suggest that the less the intelligence of the driller the better. You admit a scientist will cherry pick for an easy life. Tell a robot to go out and tak drill depth measurements every 20 metres whatever the terraine and it will. Tell a semi intelligent entity to do the same and it will realise that there is no point and not safe measuring ice thickness within 10cm of free water and it will cherry pick by moving back by a couple of metres.

    Not having measured ice thickness before I would imaginge there are few instruction needed
    Use gps to record position
    Clear snow from top of ice (judgement needed here!)
    drill down until drill shows no resistance to furter advance
    Clear hole of ice
    Drop measuring tape and weight down hole to more than depth of drill length
    Pull back until tape is taught and measure to top of ice, record measurement
    Measure from ice to to water top (can be used a secondary check), record measurement.
    Remove tape from hole
    Walk another 20metres north and repeat

    Simple – yes?

    But, hey, how can *I* question the motives or techniques of those brave tent-bound souls who are about to start endangering lives other than their own?

    I’m 100% certain Ken Borrek Air will have written additional costs into their quote for resupply and pickup at the end of june to cover any dangers-they were not forced to take the contract!!!. And I would hope that KBA would ask for volunteers for the operation if danger is involved

  122. ‘Natural’ forecasting isn’t much cop either. Isn’t red sky at night supposed to portend a sunny day for the next day? I thought so, but one day last summer my wife and I were driving home (west bound) and there was a beautiful sunset mid-evening. It poured down the next day!

  123. According to the Daily Telegraph, the Met Office guy stated that this forecast was based on “probabilities which showed there was a 50 per cent chance of the temperatures in June, July and August being above average”

    A 50% chance of being above average? You don’t say.

    He didn’t mention whether there was also a 50% chance of the temperatures being BELOW average.

    That really would be a coincidence, eh?

  124. The odds do appear to favour the MetO

    I suspect that the probability will be more of the ‘child gender’ variety. Couples mistakenly believe that the more boy or girl children they have, the more likely it is that the next one will be the other sex. It is, of course, always 50:50

  125. Oldjim (01:47:36) :

    I use Metcheck http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/? which seems to be much more accurate – it forecast the two nights of frost this week unlike the BBC

    Thanks – That looks much better than the MO! I like WeatherAction, too, but you have to pay for any detail.
    FWIW, I find this useful for local (UK) rain tracking: http://meteox.com/

  126. I think the Met Office may have over cooked it! For two days they’ve been all over the press/msm. They are now being “cautiously optomistic” according to one weather presenter on todays lunchtime news on BBC1, when asked by the news reader if he was “under pressure” for good weather this summer. I expect it’s the swine flu kicking in, or the bird flu, or the BSE/Cjd, or the salmonella in the egg industry, or the killer bugs, or any one of the hairum scarum stories we’ve been fed over the years. We’re all going to die, only trouble is, when?

    HAGWE everyone!

  127. Barry Foster (05:30:10)

    The saying is:-

    Red sky at night
    Shepherds delight
    Red sky in t’morning
    Shepherds warning

    so I guess it’s all down to whether you’re a shepherd or not (and what you’d like to be doing on the following day).

  128. Hey, hows that “Seed Of Doubt – Iraq” blog working out for you? Stamped out the “surge” yet or are you now exclusively a climate troll? ;-)

    I’ve always found it comical that you doubt what governments have to say about Iraq and the data coming from there, but you’ll accept the weather/climate data purported to show AGW hook line and sinker without question. But you really aren’t worth time arguing with, your position is epoxied in place and secure playing the internet phantom. – Anthony

    Anth, since you brought it up *but* saw no response from _sod_, a quick google search (initially couldn’t locate his/her blog with a simple search so I had to get creative) reveals last post sometime just before elections last year with outside participation (judging from user comments/posts) just enough (one would do) to not strictly qualify as a ‘null’ set.

    No mission statement regarding AGW, however, the operative mission statement _is_ “Countering right wing myths, military propaganda and media ignorance.”

    Funny how the ‘media ignorance part’ about AGW (or any subject really) seems to repeatedly be issued ‘a pass’.
    .
    .

  129. Over here in the UK, a barbecue summer is defined as two or more consecutive days without rain ;-)

  130. Anyone who watches a BBC weather forecast will know that objectivity is not a Met Office failing! Snow/cold/wind/rain = nasty; sunshine/warm = nice. Global Warming has nothing to do with it.
    Metcheck needs to correct a few glitches; it’s currently showing South Wales with a temperature of 49C for midday on May 8. Seems unlikely!

  131. Flanagan:

    In cold and temperate places, those supporting global waming are the ones with the highest level of education, whose opinion is relatively constant whatever the local temperatures

    So what does that say about people who live in hot places then?

  132. Flanagan,

    I forgot to add: In my experience, it’s the uneducated and ignorant who tend to have fixed opinions, and the educated and intelligent who tend to question things.
    And I’m by no means alone in this experience.

  133. So it’s one of the blogs where the METO are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    If they call for an average summer of sunshine and showers they would get accused of sitting on the fence.
    If they call for a below average summer there would be cries for impending iceage.
    If they call for an above average summer they get accused of peddling global warming.
    So much for us ignorant Brits. !

  134. Iceberg,

    Unlike some others, this blog is not “The Borg.” There are many different people posting here from all different points of view.

  135. The UK met office bases its forecasts on the need and desire to support the AGW/MMCC narrative, I would love to be a fly on the wall during their planning meetings, the UKMO have dug themselves into a pretty deep hole now, they cannot reveal the truth about long term climate trends because it would place them firmly in the sceptic camp and because the UKMO has been infiltrated and is now led by political ideologues instead of actual real non political scientists every statement has to conform to the set political AGW narrative.
    The end result is of course that the political reality spewed out by the UKMO starts to diverge from actual observed reality and because of the inflexible nature of the AGW political narrative they find it impossible to stop lying and the lies become ever more unbelievable and their predictions ever more unreliable, the old saying holds true, ‘oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive’.

    A fine institution perverted and its hard won reputation destroyed for short term poltical gain, that is a tragedy isnt it? A tragedy that is being repeated too often and to too many once fine institutions.

  136. the year 3000

    Haven’t they even seen Futurama?

    Fry (who is revived that year) asks Leela what happened with global warming. “Oh, that” says Leela, “that was cancelled out by the nuclear winter..”

  137. Clark (12:16:32) :

    Wow, look at the change in attitude! A year ago a warm summer would be a global warming disaster. Now:

    “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.”

    They mean they predicted a two hot and dry summers and were disappointed. Now they are predicting a warmer dryer summer and by the mighty god of averages it looks jolly promising.

  138. Alexej Buergin (12:38:14) :

    Americans just do not understand summer in the UK.
    I experienced the whole summer of 1992; it was a Wednesday in July between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm, when the sun broke through the clouds.

    Yes I remember well. The pubs ran out of lager.

  139. jgfox (14:34:10) :

    Thank you for writing the email. It ‘s often best to approach departments in a polite but direct manor. Well done and I will read the reply in full when I have had some sleep. Meanwhile I will comment on a small part of their responce.

    Seasonal trends in weather affect large geographic areas, so the seasonal forecast for the UK is set in the broader context of Europe as a whole. We are also looking at trends over a longer period – the actual weather will be subject to many sub-regional and local variations.

    In the stock market there is the foolish mantra that “the trend is your friend”. This works well when the trend remains intact and everyone is making money but when the trend changes it is the naive that get hurt the most. They can’t bring themselves to believe that the trend has changed and continue to throw more money in, in the believe that the market will resume the trend.

    How is it that we throw our tax money at these shallow buffoons? Do they not know that in order to predict any trend you must understand the underlying fundamentals and even then a seemingly random event may disrupt the best of forecasts.

    These people advise governments using short term trends to predict the climate years into the future. Although in this instance we are talking about the weather, it is none the less symptomatic of the shoddy state of the many sciences that have been hijacked by those who are running a political or funding agenda.

  140. I think we need a competition among WUWT blogists. Who can predict the English summer using the UK Met office data. I think 25% will be right and 25% wrong, 25% will be half right and 25% half wrong.

    Can we do better than average?

  141. Tom P (02:40:34) :

    rephelan,
    I don’t know why you are questioning Flanagan’s integrity. The lower plot of figure 6 in the Egan and Mullin paper shows precisely what he states:

    “…people tend to belief in global warming as a function of their local temperature. In cold and temperate places, those supporting global waming are the ones with the highest level of education, whose opinion is relatively constant whatever the local temperatures.”

    Perhaps I was too hasty in criticizing Flanagan’s integrity. There is an equal probability that neither you nor Flanagan can interpret a graph. The paper itself was concerned with the influence of non-ideological information on perceptions of global warming. The non-ideological information in question was the local weather. The chart referenced showed that the weather, either hotter or colder, had almost no effect on changing the perceptions of the more educated and had the greatest effect on changing the perceptions of the least educated. The chart does NOT show that more educated people believe in global warming and less educated do not. The authors own legend for that graph should have given you a clue:

    “Figures show predicted probabilities of agreeing there is evidence for global warming when local temperature is much hotter than normal (at the 95th percentile, or 14.7°F above normal) and much cooler than normal (at the 5th percentile, 4.3°F below normal).”

    The conclusion of the paper, as presented in the abstract, was:

    “Our results suggest that when politically relevant information is conveyed without ideological cues, political sophistication may prohibit the integration of this information into political beliefs regardless of the direction of one’s predispositions. “

    The bottom line is that whether you are an alarmist or denialist, political sophistication (defined by the authors as either high education or ideological commitment to a party) tends to leave your position on AGW unmoved in the face of your perception of the weather.

    Whether Flanagan has an integrity issue or literacy issue, neither choice looks particularly good for Flanagan….

  142. Many thanks Anthony and team for yet another tailpiece in my column in today’s (London) Sunday Telegraph:
    Summer gales of laughter
    We are “odds on for a barbecue summer”, says the Met Office: temperatures are “likely to be warmer than average”, with “near or below average rainfall”. Cue gales of mirth at the US Watts Up With That blog, which recalls that the Met Office predicted exactly the same last year, when our coolish summer was in fact one of the wettest on record. A year earlier the Met Office predicted that 2007 was “likely to be the warmest year on record globally”, just before temperatures plunged by 0.8 degrees C, one of the sharpest drops on record.
    Is it coincidental that the Met Office’s Hadley Centre boasts that it produces “world class guidance on the science of climate change”?

  143. Should the Met Office be funded by UK Govt bets placed with the bookies on the weather predictions issued by Met Office scientists and others hired as ‘alternative suppliers’ for a limited ‘competitive market testing’ phase…..

    That way, if they lose a few times, the Govt can sack those whose predictions are rubbish, saying there’s no more money left.

    It’d ‘align stakeholders’ interests’ far better than the current funding mish-mash, wouldn’t it?

  144. Sure, it’s an accurate science, but the summers of 2007 and 2008 were both wet rather than cold. The mean temperature for the June 07 was 13.7, over the long-term average of 12.6.

    To be fair to the Met Office, their press release also said the chances of a 2007 summer as hot as 2003 or 2006 were only ’1 in 8′.

  145. John Finn (02:55:45) :

    Again this has a better than even chance of being correct. It’s unlikely we’ll get the continuous weather fronts that plagued the UK in the past 2 years, so they’re probably not going to be far wrong here.
    I wonder, a weather forecast yesterday included the Jet Stream, a rare event on UK TV weather reports. Usually considered too much information by the media elite. :)
    It shows it as being far to the south of the UK which is I think unusual for summer as it normally establishes itself to the north of Scotland and it is expected to move from its southerly position ending up barrelling into the UK for at least a week or so. If I recall correctly this position was part of the weather conditions contributing to the last two summers and dragged in many Atlantic depressions. Here is a site that provides a similar forecast. http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

  146. Top ten hottest summers: http://www.hadobs.org, CET ranked seasonal

    1) 1976 – 17.77C
    2) 1826 – 17.60
    3) 1995 – 17.37
    4) 2003 – 17.33
    5) 2006 – 17.23
    6) 1846 – 17.10
    7) 1983 – 17.07
    8) 1947 – 17.03
    9) 1933 – 17.00
    10)1911 – 16.97

    Century average 1701-1800 = 15.46C
    Century average 1801-1900 = 15.19
    Century average 1901-2000 = 15.35

    Significant summer warming over two centuries of minus 0.11

  147. “Not any more it isn’t”

    It hasn’t happened yet, AFAIK. This from the Met Office on Friday:

    “The hottest day of the year so far was Thursday with Heathrow Airport recording a high of 28 °C, but that is expected to be beaten over the coming week.”

    This looks like being a warm week, although I notice that our local 5-day forecast, which was for sunshine every day when posted yesterday, now is more cloudy than sunny. And it’s raining at Wimbledon (4:50pm).

    Still, I’m sure they know exactly what it’s going to like in 60 years’ time…

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