The Met Office UK summer forecast – Mad Dogs and Englishmen

Guest Post by Steven Goddard

The Third Little Show

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta

– Noel Coward – 1931

Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II.  It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole.   And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year.  The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.

Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England.  Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 .  Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted

The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago.  But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

– Attributed to Albert Einstein

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/met_office_forecast_computer-520.jpg

Darts anyone?

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Robert Wood

I’m rather astonished. The UK Met office used to be 100% accurate with “sunny periods with scattered showers” forecasts.
Now, every year, they go out on a limb and predict heat and drought. I guess they’ll be right once or twice … eventually.

A Broken Clock is right twice a day.
You just wait and see, one of these times I will be right. Like playing the same numbers in the lottery, eventually they will come out, you may be long dead but it will happen.
It is not a forecast as much as a opinion, here in Canada they actually point out that they only have 50% record on the sign of seasonal change forecasts …

jack mosevich

Yes, but some time they will get it right and get a few pats on the back and some shrill global warming stories. Peoples’s memories are short.

Ron Michaels

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

astronmr20

Very well, then. Carry on. Stiff upper lip and all that.

Martyn B

No more than I expected. I have to say that after this last winter I’ve given up using the Met Office and now use Accuweather forecasts, which so far at least have proved to be considerably better. I notice that they are predicting a normal to slightly cooler than average summer.

Retired Engineer

‘odds on for a barbecue summer’
Of course. Self fulfilling, if they site their weather stations the way we do. Enough charcoal in the barbie (OK, that’s Down Under) and the MET can report record highs.
Just be careful not to burn your parka.

Ray

Here is my prediction… The summer in the Northern Hemisphere will be warmer than last winter.

Peter Plail

On March 31st 2009 the Met Office forecast average summer temperatures for UK and western Europe. What value do you place on long term forecasts that change so much in just a month?
I would post a link but the page no longer exists.

Rick K

Perhaps they would be more accurately called “gorecasts” rather than “forecasts.”

…the signs are much more promising this year

One wonders which signs they are looking at!

William

It’s optimism. If I get another summer like last one, I’ll shoot myself. If I could own a gun.

It’s alright for you Yanks, I have to pay for the wretched place and all the idiots in it who, even as write, are looking forward to their superb pensions – and I paid for those as well! Can anyone spare a sick-bag?

Heraldo Ortega

They have “lost the plot”, time for their Models, Computers and Satellites to be put in the bin.
Bring out that Dartboard !.

Scott

I wonder how many years in a row one can confidentially forecast the following Quarter to their boss, be completely, polar oppositely wrong, and continue to keep their job?
I would think that if your boss REALLY liked you, you might be able to scrape by the first two times…
I imagine there are more than a couple in the Met office hoping they get it right this time.

John Galt

Just because they can’t predict a season’s weather doesn’t mean they can’t predict the globe’s climate for the next 10, 20, 50 or 100 years. Weather isn’t climate, you know.
Why, there are too many factors in predicting the weather. Climate is much simpler. Just take a temp chart and draw and upward-trending line for the future.
And call it a ‘scenario’, not a prediction.

Fred from Canuckistan . . .

Well, even a broken clock is broken.

James

even a stopped clock shows the right time twice a day

Clark

Wow, look at the change in attitude! A year ago a warm summer would be a global warming disaster. Now:
“After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year.”
It almost sounds like a warm summer would actually be a good thing. Back to the re-educations camps for Chief Meteorologist Ewen McCallum!

CodeTech

They can’t be basing their prediction on anything other than hope.
I’m personally predicting a cooler than average summer with below average hot days and cooler nights… and I’m basing that on both Atlantic and Pacific cycles and a spotless Sun.
If they took bets on this someplace, I’d be willing to put money on it.
The annoying part is, next year everyone will forget that Met was wrong and I was right…

astronmr20

@ Scott,
Do you really think they would be held to account?!

John F. Hultquist

Whether the Met Office:
Whether the weather is hot
As the Met thinks is near
Or whether it’s not
Will in some months be clear
In the meantime
Roll out the barbie
The beef and the beer

Cathy

😀 😀 😀 😀
I love these posts that produce the best comments on the internet.
Thanks, Anthony. It’s good to have a few chuckles at the expense of the warmers.

Paul James

My long range every day forecast for the UK remains unchanged, long term, short term, any term.
Cloudy with some sunshine and rain at times.
Still if the Met Office need any help they can always ask poor old Michael Fish Met Office Employee and former BBC weatherman eh ?
“Some woman has called the BBC and said that she’d heard that there was a Hurricane on the way, don’t worry…………..

That evening the great storm of 1987 roared ashore….

Katherine

Maybe there’s a method behind their madness. If their forecast is wrong, they’ll have justification for buying another supercomputer to improve their forecasting capabilities. If it’s right, then by Jove, that new supercomputer was just the thing!

Walt Stone

So, the last two summers in Britain were influenced by weather, but if it’s really hot this year, the influence is climate.
Do I have this mangled to the right degree?

Dell Hunt, Michigan

If you look at the past 2 years weather, the further away from the tropics (except for the mysterious supposed Trans Siberian Heatwave), the overall cooler it has been.
Whats interesting, is that is exactly what happened during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.

Bethany

I am curious if there are any lawyers out there who could answer whether or not we could bring a “False Claims Act” suit against those who are pushing for this C02 legislation which will cost the government and in turn us trillions of dollars? Could we not bring it around to convince some that it will save the government money? I know I am reaching, but we need something here as we are losing this battle for our free country and the world.
People at these agencies are making these false claims based on an agenda (conspiracy) that will do different things based on how you see the scenario.
“Conspiracy” A secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act.
A plot to carry out some harmful or illegal act (especially a political plot).
A group of conspirators banded together to achieve some harmful or illegal purpose.
I am also really tired about people saying that it isn’t a conspiracy and you are paranoid, well how does everyone think they (powers that be) are getting away with;
1. The destruction of the financial markets and in turn the eventual curbing of the free market….if that has ever been the case since the 20’s.
2. The destruction of our freedom and our ability to create products and wealth by unfair taxation and regulation.
3. insert other possible scenarios here i.e. nationalized healthcare which is a misnomer, just look at how our system has helped people so far., mandatory vaccinations, taxing you extra for extra children because of their carbon footprint etc. etc.
The problem with people not seeing the corruption and conspiracy is that we are conditioned to think anyone with a conspiracy theory is a kook, one who wears a tin foil hat and shouts about area 51 on the street corner. We cannot possibly imagine that there is somthing this sinister and corrupt going on and to even imagine it is too disturbing so we side with, oh that is silly and “you American’s and your conspiracy theories” (which is a quote I heard last week).
We need a separation of government and industry in the biggest of ways. How are we going to do this? Is it too late?

The British have always been optimistic about having a good summer and to ensure we don’t forget the very occasional one that comes along we keep very good records.
http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm
Unfortunately our summers are not showing much signs of getting warmer, with June actually cooler on average since 1659
Of our twenty warmest summers 8 occured in the 18th century, 4 in the 19th, 4 in the 20th with 2 so far in the 21st.
Winters are getting warmer (not surprising as our figures back to 1659 include the Little Ice age) but this was because the severe cold in the LIA dragged down overall mean temperatures. These LIA winters are the only reason why overall the mean temperatures have consequently risen fractionally in 350 years of record keeping-the longest in the world. (see the link)
However, even the warm winters these days aren’t what they used to be. Our warmest three remain 1733 1868 and 1833. Whilst we associate Charles Dickens with snow, ironically he lived through some of the warmest winters on record and wrote A Christmas Carol during a heat wave to stave off bankruptcy.
A bit worrying really to think that temperatures have only recovered fractionally over the LIA values. Perhaps this current period is only a short respite from ther LIA?
Tonyb

jack mosevich

Paul James: That is so hilarious. Its too bad we cannot do a similar pre- and post- 50-years-from -now interview with Hansen

After years of good weather and good harvest of wheat and of production of wine in the beginning of the 14 century, suddenly the summers in the British Isles started to rain away and the temperature dropped.
The world entered the Wolf minimum and the Great Famine hit Britain.
A couple of decades later the plague arrived.
Maybe there are parallels today.

Alexej Buergin

Americans just do not understand summer in the UK.
I experienced the whole summer of 1992; it was a Wednesday in July between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm, when the sun broke through the clouds.

Scott

@astronmr20,
Eventually someone… or their boss.. or their boss, will get tired of being embarrassed. Nothing heads the same direction ad infinitum.

Ray

If they don’t change their basic assumptions and keep their global warming model equation in, even their super-dupper computer will give [self-snip] predictions.

jack mosevich

OT- the Catlin team re-supply has been postponed for another day. This just updated a few minutes ago:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice

Flanagan

The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.

Wansbeck

Poor Old Michael Fish. He actually got the forecast substantially correct even advising south coast viewers to ‘batten down the hatches’ but that part never gets shown.
Still, the Met Office did get a new supercomputer out of it that time.
Still trying?

I know it’s forbidden to talk about H1N1 in WUWT, but this post is related with the main topic.
Well… Insanity is a cosmopolitan disease. As you should know, my country is affected by an outbreak of A-H1N1 influenza. Yesterday, a guy who supposedly is a “great scientist and infectious diseases specialist” tried to relate the outbreak with global warming. The editorial which appeared in most important national newspapers said:
“The great scientist and infectious diseases specialist, Fidel Herrera by name, explained overwhelmingly and unobjectionably that the outbreak of swine influenza occurred at Perote… …was due to the aggressive climate changes happened in the State during the last years…” (Milenio. 30 April 2009. Page 4).
One more for adding to the insane list of 1000 ominous effects caused by global warming.

Paul James

Jack Mosevich –
The Michael Fish non-Hurricane forecast is a classic in the UK. Poor old Michael never lived it down and to be fair to him he took the laughter at his expense extremely well. That he came back to TV and did the 20th anniversary forecast speaks well for his sense of humor.
He carried on forecasting the weather on the BBC for many years only retiring in the last few. In those days the BBC’s weather forecasters were Met Office employees, I am not sure if that’s still the case.

Richard Patton

Alexej Buergi: That’s like our jokes in Oregon: “Last summer Oregonians saw a UFO-the sun.” “Oregonians don’t tan-they rust.” “Last year 300 Oregonians fell off their bicycles-and drowned.”

Tim Channon

A treat for Mr Watts.
Google have just started to add some street view data to their service in the UK. To my great surprise, a stroke of luck, you can now see a standard Met Office weather station, if a minor one.
So far as I know _not_ used for climatic work.
This particular station is at a west London airfield which goes back to WW2 but today is used for government flights.
The Met Station was in the standard RAF position next to the control tower.
It was automated and moved. That is not a minor road even if it looks small, it is one of the primary routes into London and becomes the M40 motorway.
I will give just the lat/long, copy into Google Earth. You will see the Street View icons, access as desired.
51.548707° -0.416954°

Ray

jack mosevich (12:51:14) :
This is hillarious… they also wrote:
“Their spirits were lifted briefly today when they heard the distant engines of a DC3 aircraft overhead. They thought their minds were playing tricks on them, but sure enough a DC3 did indeed fly within 13 miles of their camp. However, it was part of a Danish research expedition and not the Twin Otter they were hoping for.”
Isn’t that the same plane that are measuring the ice thickness while on-board a nicely heated environment? But I though the experiment was over.

Mike Nicholson

I seem to recall that in the summer/autumn period last year, that the same Met Office was forecasting a warm,if not “the warmest” winter on record ! Today should have been torrential rain in our area according to the met forecast in the morning. All we got was a slight drizzle.
Stick to “sunshine and showers” !

Ray

Nasif Nahle (13:07:01) :
I am sure Gore must have sent a filming crew To Mexico to be certain to include this for the upcoming Incovenient Truth 2: The sequal.
http://www.cinematical.com/2007/05/24/davis-guggenheim-in-talks-for-inconvenient-truth-2/

stephen richards

Sorry but you have all missed the point. When the UK met office moved to Exeter a yaer or two back it was to be nearer the sea. You see, there is no seaweed in London or pine cones. It wasn’t a super computer they took with them to Exeter, they didn’t need to. They had tons of seaweed and pine cones and all the other weather forecasting tools they would need. Et voilà, seaweed dry drought is nigh, cone closed we will be frozed. Told you!!

jack mosevich

Actually this all reminds me of the economist joke: a certain economist predicted 7 of the past 3 recessions

M White

The Full Story So Far
Summer forecast 2009
Tue 31 Mar 2009
Temperature
For the UK and much of Western Europe temperatures are likely to be near average
Rainfall
At this stage forecast signals are too weak to provide an outlook for summer rainfall.
Thursday 30 Mar 2009
Temperature
For the UK and much of Europe temperatures are likely to be above average.
Rainfall
For the UK and much of northern Europe rainfall is likely to be near or below average. A repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
Average or below-average rainfall is also likely over Eastern Europe

Ken Hall

O/T but I am so sick of all of this climate alarmism and the statutes and taxes that are flowing from it, that I am seriously looking into lawful rebellion. This is when one casts off the false legal fiction of their “person” and lives as a free man on the land according to common law.
These statutes are going to increasingly remove our freedoms and rights until we are little more than serfs on the free soil.
One must make various lawful declarations to be signed by a notary and held by a court that declare one’s lawful understandings and commitments. Unchallenged these declarations are lawful documents which you can enforce in law against any act or statute.
One must note the difference between a law and a statute. Common law flows from Natural Law being created by God, under which ALL men are equal before the law and all men are free. That all free men declare that they shall act in peace and never cause harm, injury or loss. (in law the term ‘man’ includes woman).
Whereas a statute is a rule of society that only has the force of law with the consent of the governed. It is created by a court (Parliament) written by lawyers and only applies under admiralty law which is Law of the seas, or commercial contract law. Therefore a statute is basically a contract. We can refuse to grant consent, LAWFULLY. A statute is NOT a law, until the person consents to it binding upon them and therefore by that action consenting to act as if it is a law. Why do you think that they call statutes, ACTS! Consent is assumed in law by your inaction too. One must actively and lawfully deny consent for the act to be void upon your flesh and blood human being.
As the legal maxim states: Consensus Facit Legem : Consent makes the law.
That means that if we are to declare ourselves lawfully as free men on the land, we need not obey their statutes. The statutes can only apply to a legal person, which is separate and distinct from a flesh and blood man. A person in legal terms is a piece of paper that represents the human being. It is your birth certificate.
For more information see tpuc.org

Ed Scott

Happy Earth Day
25 Global Warming Debunking Videos Al Gore Doesn’t Want You To See
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/25-anti-global-warming-videos-al-gore-does-not-want-you-to-see

kim

Special for Erl Happ:
The sun is very sultry and we must avoid its ultry-violet rays.
H/t NC
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