Quantifying CMIP6 Model Uncertainties in Extreme Precipitation Projections

Despite the overestimated inter-model spread, our results show a robust enhancement of extreme precipitation with more than 90% of models simulating an increase of RV20.

Inside Climate News Confuses Models with Reality

If the current models used for temperature prediction are not accurate, then the food production models that rely on them cannot be expected to be accurate either.

Outside The Black Box

Models that need model-specific input to replicate the known past, violate the most basic criteria of science to earn the label “scientifically proven”, independent of the “proven physics” they are…

Swiss Analysis: Climate Models Running Too Warm, Falsely Calibrated…IPCC Needs “To Review Its Findings”

“The warming of the last 20 years has been caused more by changes in clouds than by the classical greenhouse effect,” say study authors Fritz Vahrenholt and Hans-Rolf Dübal

IPCC Enters “Into Thin Air”. German Scientists: IPCC “In A Hopeless Situation”…”Stained Scientists”

The wide range of CO2 climate sensitivity had long been a thorn in everyone’s side. For 30 years the range existed, without progress. Now one has simply reduced the span…

GHGs, California, and the EPA: a golden braid of off-the-rails

The unavoidable conclusions are that the SAFE Vehicle Rule serves no ameliorative purpose because the EPA CO2 endangerment finding has no scientific merit.

CMIP6 ECS

It is apparent that those who believe in anthropogenic global warming do not understand the intractable fundamental problem with their climate model approach. They are digging themselves a deeper hole.…

Projecting manmade climate change: scenarios to 2050

Climate impact assessments are being biased in an alarming direction by continued inclusion, and especially sole reliance, on RCP8.5. For climate change to 2050, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are the most…

Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models

The new open-access paper – the senior author of which, Gabriel Vecchi, is a well known professor of geosciences at Princeton University – provides further evidence that high ECS CMIP6…

High end of climate sensitivity in new climate models seen as less plausible

Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Miami reported that newer models with a high “climate sensitivity” — meaning they predict much greater global warming from the same levels…

CMIP6 adds more value in simulating extreme temperatures in China

Climate models have provided an avenue for studying the possible changes in extreme temperatures in the future; and in this respect, to ease of comparison across models from different modelling…

Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS

Abstract. An analysis is presented of he disconnection between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 Historical and Future periods when considering the relationship of the individual model GMST changes and the climate…

CMIP6 Update

This essay extends the previously published evaluation of CMIP5 climate models to the predictive and physical reliability of CMIP6 global average air temperature projections.

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to…

Hot Summer Epic Fail: New Climate Models Exaggerate Midwest Warming by 6X

Contrary to popular perception, the U.S. Midwest has seen little long-term summer warming. For precipitation, the slight drying predicted by climate models in response to human greenhouse gas emissions has…

CMIP6 Climate Models Producing 50% More Surface Warming than Observations since 1979

Those who defend climate model predictions often produce plots of observed surface temperature compared to the models which show very good agreement.