Essay by Eric Worrall
But we already breached 1.5C.
Coral reefs are nearing extinction. 2026 must mark a turning point
Jason Momoa
Fri 17 Apr 2026 22.00 AESTAt 1.5C of global warming, up to 90% of coral reefs could be lost. The next few months could be a defining moment.
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Our coral reefs are under severe stress. The planet has just experienced the most widespread coral bleaching event ever recorded, lasting 33 months into 2025. Scientists warn that at 1.5C of global warming, up to 90% of coral reefs could be lost. Ninety per cent. And 1.5C is not lingering in the distance – it’s extremely close.
Even if the world somehow hits its climate targets, reefs are still getting pummeled by plastic pollution, coastal development, agricultural runoff and overfishing. They’re so fragile. And when reefs weaken, coastlines get hit harder by storms and rising seas. Homes and jobs become exposed. Cultures and sacred places are put at risk. And the incredible range of underwater life found only in reefs – once it’s gone, it’s gone for good.
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Through my work with the UN Environment Programme and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs, I’ve also seen how smart investments can lead to major change. Even a little bit of finance can go a long way to help people find new ways to earn a living without destroying nature, boost conservation of marine ecosystems and support communities in rebuilding sustainably after they’re hit by extreme weather.
These give me hope. But the hard truth is that we still lack the luxury of time to sit back and rely on what’s already happening. Climate change and unsustainable development are moving fast, meaning we need to move faster.
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/17/coral-reefs-extinction-global-warming-jason-momoa
The problem with claiming 1.5C is a tipping point for coral extinction is we already passed 1.5C, and Coral has not experienced a 90% extinction.
One of the UN articles linked by Jason claims the 2024 1.5C breach didn’t last long enough to count, so perhaps this coral scare is part of an ongoing effort to rehabilitate the 1.5C UN climate campaign.
Studies have been done using coral samples of the GBR, and show that the GBR has bleached many times in the past. There is no pattern that could be linked to sea surface temperature.
Has no-one told the climate catastrophists that coral reefs abound in the tropics?
Or simply that Homo sapiens sapiens originated in very warm, moist Africa and not is South Africa or Tierra del Fuego
Indeed. Consider how little fur we have on our bodies. Homo sapiens is a tropical species.
“Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm
(based on Gasparrini et al. (2015). Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet 386(9991), pp.369-375. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0 )
Even in the tropics, cold snaps are generally deadlier than heat waves; note Thailand:
In chilly places like the UK the ratio of cold-caused to heat-caused deaths is enormous.
A. Gasparrini, P. Masselot, et al. (2022). Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health 6(7), pp. e557-e564. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00138-3
I re-scaled the heat-deaths chart to match the scale of the cold-deaths in that paper, and combined them into a single chart, here:
“up to 90%”
That “up to” is doing a LOT of work. I’ll counter that a rise of 1.5C is likely to cause 0% of coral to die.
PETM when it was 14°C hotter, was not a coral extinction event. Au contraire, corals were thriving.
Probably not 14°C hotter. It might have been half that, on average, but not in the tropics.
https://www.britannica.com/science/Paleocene-Eocene-Thermal-Maximum
About 10000 years ago, temperatures were several degrees warmer than it is today, and they stayed warmer for thousands of years.
Yet the coral managed to survive.
The graphic appears to be showing air temperatures.
Don’t corals live in water?
Does a change in air temperature affect sea temperature?
It’s all so confusing