Net Zero Costs Could Exceed £7 Trillion – IEA

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Another dagger in the heart of Net Zero.

From the Telegraph:

Reaching 2050 target could exceed even highest official predictions of £7.6tn amid ‘faulty assumptions’

Reaching net zero will cost Britain even more than feared, a report has found.

The gross cost to the UK economy of achieving the 2050 target could exceed even the highest official predictions of £7.6tn, an Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) paper said.

The report said that previous estimates of the financial impact of net zero were based on “fantasy assumptions” of the cost of renewable energy and low-carbon technology.

Lord Frost, the head of the IEA, said the low estimates were also the result of “heroic assumptions” of the cost of household technologies such as heat pumps and electric cars.

David Turver, the paper author, said: “The various public bodies responsible for working out the costs of net zero have not been entirely truthful in their analysis. They have made fantasy assumptions about the cost of renewables and low-carbon technologies.

“The true cost of net zero is much higher than we have been led to believe. If we are to have a serious debate about net zero, the various public bodies need to be more transparent and frankly more honest.”

The Government’s approach to reaching net zero has come under increasing scrutiny over the last year, with pressures to go further on green policy from inside Labour.

On Monday night, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said it rejected the IEA analysis, which it said ignored the costs of “staying on the fossil fuel roller-coaster”.

Full story here.

No longer is Miliband arguing about lower costs. His only defence of the craziness is avoiding the volatility of fossil fuel prices, the roller-coaster as they call it.

Instead he wants to us into much higher costs for 20 years.

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Neil Pryke
January 14, 2026 2:09 am

The lies by the Blob apparatchiks are terrible…but the truth is terrifying…

Bryan A
Reply to  Neil Pryke
January 14, 2026 5:48 am

Even Google AI tells lies…
I asked…How much would it cost the US to go Zero Emissions?
It answered…
The total cost varies widely, the best estimate is $3.5T globally with the US having the largest share.
So I then rephrased the question…
I’ve seen reports of a cost of $7 trillion for the UK to achieve Net Zero, How much would it cost the US to go Zero Emissions
Then it answered…
Estimates for the U.S. to reach net-zero vary widely, from potentially low annual costs (around $1 per person daily for energy infrastructure) to multi-trillion dollar figures, with one analysis suggesting $4.5 trillion for 100% renewables by 2030, while Goldman Sachs projected a massive $75 trillion global investment for net-zero by 2070, much higher than U.S. GDP.
.
I guess even Google AI has been trained to “Whitewash” the truth.

Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 5:54 am

Google, and the rest, has been “trained” to generate utterances that look like answers should look. That is all. There is zero reasoning; zero resort to evidence, and zero comprehension.

Don’t be enchanted by their fluency.

Neil Lock
Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 6:16 am

A most interesting article (if a bit hard going) from Judith Curry’s website about AI’s responses to climate questions: https://judithcurry.com/2026/01/05/ai-models-and-their-knowledge-of-climate-change/.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 7:27 am

AI use internet sources for their responses.
If there are 10,000 publications claiming everything is coming up roses and daffodils and only one warning of thorns, AI will go with the preponderance of the evidence.
AI is incapable of judgement. It can only do pattern recognition.

KevinM
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
January 14, 2026 10:49 am

There’s more than pattern recognition going on when AI expresses the cost in dollars per day per person. That’s salesman talk.

Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 8:47 am

If you keep pushing, AI will keep going in your direction, but it is a waste of your time. AI can only answer from the lies, biases, and disinformation in its data base.

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 10:46 am

around $1 per person daily for energy infrastructure”
$1 per day = $365/year
2050-2026 = 24 years
$365/year * 24 year = $8760
USA population = 340M in 2026
$8760 * 340M = 2.98T

So about $3 trillion for infrastructure. Are there other costs, like maintenance and operation?

(Note that the AI put $3T on the low side of the range)

Reply to  Neil Pryke
January 14, 2026 7:21 am

And that cost is just for the UK for the IPCC globalists’ “net zero by 2050”
We are talking about black hole proportions.in terms of cost, that will doom Western civilization, like during the Dark Ages.

Not even the richest countries can afford such a folly.
The UK will be even more of a basket case.

Also, increased CO2 ppm is a life gas essential for increased fauna and flora, reduced desert ares, and increased crop yields per acre to better feed 8 billion people

Reply to  wilpost
January 14, 2026 7:37 am

‘…that will doom Western civilization…’

Let’s see, unlimited immigration, net zero, DEI, etc. It almost sounds intentional.

/s

Reply to  Frank from NoVA
January 14, 2026 10:18 am

It IS intentional!

Add negation of freedom of speech, assembly, association, and take away personal arms to protect oneself from the mobs and the unelected “governments”

Erase national cultures that are several thousand years old, and reduce all to the lowest common denominator.

1984 is tame by comparison.

strativarius
January 14, 2026 2:16 am

CCC claims it’ll only cost £108 billion.

I wouldn’t mind betting that by 2050 it will be closer to £15 trillion or more

Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 3:30 am

I definitely won’t be taking that bet, unless £15 is your top limit in which case I’d go higher.

Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 3:42 am

I doubt anyone will still be trying to reduce CO2 by the year 2050.

Maybe Mad Ed, but he would be the only one.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 14, 2026 7:28 am

Only if he stops breathing.

Bryan A
Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 5:53 am

According to Goldman-Sachs it would take more than $75T globally. I believe this to be a far conservative estimate and likely doesn’t include Government Subsidies paid to Renewable Generation Sources for providing absolutely nothing of value

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 9:19 pm

Interestingly the more Conservative Estimates are made by Liberals while the more Liberal Estimates are made by Conservatives.

Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 11:58 am

I wouldn’t mind betting that by 2050 I’ll be dead. But then again, I couldn’t collect when I win, so why bother.

Tony Tea
January 14, 2026 2:17 am

They’re not faulty assumptions; they are intentionally under-stated lies.

Reply to  Tony Tea
January 14, 2026 3:43 am

Yes, your friendly government agency is deliberately lying to you about the costs of Net Zero.

It’s worse than you think.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Tony Tea
January 14, 2026 7:29 am

These make used cars salesmen blush.

January 14, 2026 2:18 am

Hm.
Yesterday Strativarius gave a link which said £9 trillion.
Now it is £7.6 trillion.
Is this what is called the shrinking economy?

It still isn’t on any of the MSM outlets, though.

strativarius
Reply to  Oldseadog
January 14, 2026 2:32 am

Indeed I did. The take away is nobody knows the true cost of the fantasy

Fury as Ed Miliband’s Net Zero fanaticism set to cost taxpayers ‘more than £9 trillion’
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2156854/fury-ed-milibands-net-zero#

Leon de Boer
Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 3:23 am

Standard political costing rules apply it will cost 10 times the estimate and will not be completed … so $90 trillion and no net-zero will be closer to truth,

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Leon de Boer
January 14, 2026 7:30 am

Not only 10 times the cost estimate, but also 10 times the time estimate.

Bryan A
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
January 15, 2026 2:20 pm

How many Trillion$ have already been spent fighting climate change since Rio? (Ten$ of Trillion$)
And how much CO2 has been attenuated as a result?? (ZERO)
AND much have temperatures fallen due to that CO2 reduction??? (ZERO)

Bruce Cobb
January 14, 2026 3:43 am

I believe the word that Frost and Turver is looking for is “lies”. And the response by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero? More lies. They just can’t stop lying.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 14, 2026 3:49 am

Lying is the only way they can go forward.

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 15, 2026 2:22 pm

But at least they’re Gilded Lies

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 14, 2026 5:58 am

I fear I am more and more an outlier on the subject of our leaders’ honesty.

I don’t think they’re lying. I think they are thick. Absolutely pig-ignorant and thick.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  worsethanfailure
January 14, 2026 7:31 am

Hanlon’s Razor:

“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity,”

I do not believe Hanlon’s Razor applies to politicians, although malice could easily be greed.

KevinM
Reply to  worsethanfailure
January 14, 2026 10:56 am

“Plausible deniability is the ability to deny knowledge or responsibility for an action, often by creating a situation where there’s a lack of concrete evidence linking a high-ranking official or organization to wrongdoing by subordinates or covert operations, allowing them to claim ignorance and avoid accountability.” 

January 14, 2026 3:46 am

If Net Zero policies continue 10 years from now, I’ll be surprised.

I think this CO2 science fiction is about to run out of gas. it’s harder to predict the psychology of this situation. True believers will continue on even in the face of failure.

KevinM
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 14, 2026 10:57 am

The upward revisions are unsustainable?

Gregory Woods
January 14, 2026 4:51 am
Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Gregory Woods
January 14, 2026 7:38 am

Funny that report. Cost of doing nothing is 1,266 trillion.

It misses the mark. The greatest loss of income is due to inflation and debt.

The threat to future generations is not climate, it is the massive accumulation of debt they will face without having a voice in any of the decisions.

Reply to  Gregory Woods
January 14, 2026 12:02 pm

Total gibberish of course, as is most crap from the BBC.

For a start, there has been human caused warming in the USA since 2005, , according to USCRN.

And the USA was much warmer in the 1930,40s

On ethe other hand… there is no doubt that the “Climate Change Agenda” has been a very costly burden to society.

January 14, 2026 4:57 am

For a UK temperature check, I went to:
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/countries/united-kingdom/average-temperature-by-year. Tmax and Tmin data from 1901 to 2024 are displayed in
a table. Here is the temperature data for these two years:

Year——Tmax——Tmin——-Tavg Temperatures are ° C
2024——12.9——–6.9———9.9
1901——11.8——–4.7———8.7
Change–+1.1——+2.2——–+1.7

After 123 years there has been a slight warming in the UK, but this is of little since consequence because there will always be long cold winters. Thus net zero by 2050 is not possible. Fossil fuels will be required to keeps humans and pets from freezing to death in winter.

The humans of the UK exhale 67 million kilograms of CO2 everyday. To this should be added all the CO2 exhaled by domestic animals from cattle to canaries. Does Mad Ed have a plan for reducing the emission of CO2 from humans?

CO2 In Air Concentration Data

2024: 424 ppmv, 0.83 g CO2/cu. m. of air
1901: 295 ppmv, 0.58 g CO2/cu. m. of air.

Note how little CO2 there is air. We need to inform Mad Ed that he does not have to worry about any warming of air by CO2.

Neil Lock
January 14, 2026 4:59 am

I find myself in the position of being able to say: “I told you so.” https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/on-externalities-integrated-assessment-models-and-uk-climate-policies/. I wish I could be satisfied about that, but I’m not.

That was six years ago, and still there has been no proper cost/benefit assessment of net zero, on either side of the ledger. We now have a situation where the IEA’s estimate of the costs of net zero (which I tend to believe; David Turver knows what he is doing) is higher than the CCC’s estimate by a factor of over 80. Madness. As to what the cost of inaction would have been if net zero had never existed, that has never been objectively and honestly calculated – which was the main point of my article.

In any case, the government “paper trail” I unearthed during that exercise (and linked to in the article) is still up there on the Internet. I think it’s quite damning.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Neil Lock
January 14, 2026 7:53 am

The unreality of the UK Climate Change Committee’s estimates of anything was amply illustrated by this small quote from page 306 of their 2025 report on Net Zero.

“For the typical household bills will be lower in 2050 than in 2025 for heating and driving with minimal changes to food costs”

You have to believe in fairy dust to accept that!

January 14, 2026 5:04 am

Ed Miliband has just announced the latest batch of Net Zero madness.
His smugness indicator has gone through the roof.
He is actually proud of what he is doing.

strativarius
Reply to  stevencarr
January 14, 2026 5:10 am

He “believes”.

Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 5:59 am

Yep.

nyeevknoit
January 14, 2026 5:08 am

Same problem in America..massive costs to consumers, lost competitive industrial base, and dependence on others for National security. Wasted money.Wasted opportunities. Based on fantasy..with no small interest in monetary and political self-interest.
Seems more like an enemy’s plan.

iflyjetzzz
Reply to  nyeevknoit
January 14, 2026 11:42 am

… confined to blue states. Here in FL, there’s no big push for netzero.

strativarius
January 14, 2026 5:09 am

Getting those energy bills down – remember, a £300 cut was promised in July 2024…

Will Great Britain’s offshore wind subsidy auction mean lower energy bills? 
Why ‘historic’ process is crucial to help government hit 2030 clean energy targetsThe 6th Form

Prices for Fixed Bottom Offshore wind are up 11% to £117/MWh, Floating Offshore wind up 10.2% to £280/MWh, and onshore wind up 3.1% to £95/MWh.  
https://ukreloaded.com/miliband-to-wreck-the-economy-with-ar7/

The Guardian knows bills will only go up yet feels it needs to be seen to be questioning its own narrative. Doublethink is a real asset to these people.

 
In May 2025, the Natural Gas, whl, GB price was around 28.7 GBP per MWh. This figure represents a 3.4% fall compared to the preceding month’s value, while Natural Gas, whl, GB prices increased by 10.5% on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.intratec.us/solutions/energy-prices-markets/commodity/natural-gas-price-united-kingdom

The way gas is used purely as a backup when nature fails us inflates the price of gas enormously.
If only the government understood even basic economics.

Ehrlich was right, though his timing and rationale were wrong. 

“By the year 2000 2050 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000 2050.” 

Bryan A
Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 5:57 am

Doublethink an Asset…or Asshat???

strativarius
Reply to  Bryan A
January 14, 2026 6:05 am

I’d suffix ass with hole.

Reply to  strativarius
January 15, 2026 2:52 am

“The way gas is used purely as a backup when nature fails us inflates the price of gas enormously.”

That bears repeating, and is the real problem with this plan and is the reason that electricity rates are going higher, The Net Zero fiends have to use natural gas this way as a means of including windmills and solar in the grid mix.

Without natural gas backup, windmills and solar would not be viable. But using natural gas this way, as a backup, increases the costs dramatically, as opposed to a grid that was powered solely by natural gas. A pure natual gas grid would be cheaper than the jury-rigged grid the UK has now, with windmills and solar added in.

So the windmills and the solar are the real culprits when it comes to high electicity prices, not the natural gas power plants, which are being used in the most inefficient way possible, just so the Net Zero fanatics can run their windmills and solar and can pretend they are doing something about the weather..

Sean Galbally
January 14, 2026 5:30 am

Why spend this money? Decarbonisation, whatever that is, achieves nothing. It is a total sham by politicians who haven’t a clue what they are doing.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Sean Galbally
January 14, 2026 7:41 am

I suspect they know.
The Club of Rome.
The Population Bomb.
One World Order.

iflyjetzzz
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
January 14, 2026 11:44 am

Lowering CO2 reduces plant growth, reducing overall population.

strativarius
January 14, 2026 5:57 am

News just in…

The latest accounts from the Climate Change Committee – a taxpayer-funded body which tracks and advocates for measures to push Britain closer to Net Zero – show its chief executives have been handed a plum pay increase.

Chris Stark was in 2023/4 paid up to £210,000 for his work.
His replacement James Richardson enjoyed remuneration last year to the tune of £225,000 – his salary was boosted by a handsome pension benefit package.

Total funding for the growing organisation has also gone up. Staff costs have rocketed from £4,610,583 in 2023/4 to £5,166,863 just twelve months later. Total operating expenditure is up from £6,711,820 to £8,258,989. A Labour minister has today defended the ballooning costs: “The CCC has a vital role providing independent, expert advice on reducing emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change, and staff numbers have risen to manage the increased demands from the CCC’s work programme.” Hop on the gravy train while you can…
Miliband is today boasting about locking in £95/MWh prices for offshore wind in the latest auction round. The average electricity price last year was £80. Subsidise or die…
https://order-order.com/2026/01/14/taxpayer-funded-net-zero-body-hikes-spending-by-over-a-fifth/

Reply to  strativarius
January 14, 2026 6:58 am

James Richardson: Philosophy, Politics, and Economics from Oxford, then a PhD in Economics from LSE (thesis on wage subsidies).

So a real domain expert. /sarc

Is Chief Executive a full-time position? I struggle to image such an exalted being subsisting on less than a quarter million.

Sparta Nova 4
January 14, 2026 7:24 am

You will have nothing and you will be happy.

… as you starve and freeze in the dark and cold.

Sparta Nova 4
January 14, 2026 7:46 am

I previously poste this.
It was suggested that I regularly repost it.

Even at +2°C or +3°C or +5°C we would not suffer any more than those optimum eras that say the population flourish.

And surpassing 1850?

What evidence is there that 1850 was the climate optimum.

No one has yet to define the climate optimum in measurable metrics.

How do we know we are not moving towards the optimum?
Without knowing the optimum, no claims that things are getting worse are valid.

If climate science cannot decide on an optimum temperature, why should we believe +1.5°C is a problem.

January 14, 2026 8:45 am

The REAL cost is so high it will bankrupt us ALL and leave us with insufficient energy!
The rest is simply a LIE.

KevinM
January 14, 2026 11:13 am

I can’t imagine that by 2050 China will be manufacturing toys for the West with tiny hand tools in dirty factories. Maybe that role will be for India? India does not seem to be aimed at that goal. Will robots do the grunt work? The major driver for overseas manufacturing has been labor cost avoidance, and robots are expensive.
The point is, looking beyond a few years into the future becomes fiction. Will there be ‘x’ in 2050? Make ‘x’ anything that seems out of reach in 2026 and the answer becomes ‘maybe’. Nuclear fusion power? Maybe. Flying cars? Maybe. One world government? Maybe.

January 14, 2026 11:41 am

Question..

Does this value include the cost of the complete collapse of the UK economy ???

Reply to  bnice2000
January 15, 2026 2:59 am

And the answer is no, it doesn’t include the costs of bankrupting the UK.

ntesdorf
January 14, 2026 2:51 pm

It’s all fun and games until the money runs out, and then there is a logjam at the exit.

Bob
January 14, 2026 2:52 pm

Hats off to IEA. It goes without saying we can’t be effective until we can hold these monsters accountable for all the harm even deaths that they are causing. What they (government) are doing is criminal they must be made to pay.

Edward Katz
January 14, 2026 6:20 pm

If the IEA is admitting this, it’s likely to be accurate, but at least it’s not trying to conceal anything or trying to greenwash the effort. It’s too bad that many governments aren’t seeing the light on the issue or admitting it. Instead they keep supporting policies that supposedly will help us reach this target without admitting to citizens that it’s just using it as an excuse to raise taxes on items, processes and various manufactures.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Edward Katz
January 15, 2026 6:57 am

It is the Institute of Economic Affairs based in London not the International Energy Agency