Essay by Eric Worrall
“… Major uncertainties include … exit or connection of large loads, dependability of new technologies … regular or seasonal decommitment of coal units … changes to exit timing or unexpected plant failure. …”
Energy grid not ready for Eraring coal plant’s closure, AEMO says
By political reporter Jake Evans
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The energy grid is not ready for the closure of the Eraring coal plant, the energy operator has warned, raising the threat of widespread blackouts in eastern Australia.
The Hunter Valley coal plant’s life had already been extended from a planned closure of 2025 to 2027, at a cost to taxpayers of up to $225 million a year.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has warned, however, that while there are enough renewables in the pipeline to cover its closure, supporting infrastructure to keep the grid stable is not expected to be ready.
“Coal-fired power stations are retiring, and this is not new news. Ten have retired since 2012, and the remaining fleet are getting old,” AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman told AM.
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“We need to make sure that the grid has a steady heartbeat.”
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But he said necessary technology like synchronous condensers, which help to absorb reactive power and keep the grid stable, is not due to be installed until after Eraring’s closure.
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-01/energy-grid-not-ready-eraring-coal-aemo/106085200
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From the AEMO report 2025 Transition Plan for System Security;
2025 Transition Plan for System Security December 2025
Maintaining system security through the energy transition
…
Throughout this transition, the NEM must be both reliable and secure. To be reliable, there must be enough generation to meet consumer needs at any point in time. To be secure, the power system must operate safely within its defined technical limits, withstand disturbances, and be able to restart in the event of a widespread outage.
For decades, system security services have been a by-product of coal-fired power generation. As these aging generators withdraw and retire, replacement services must be delivered on time to support higher levels of renewable energy produced by residential rooftops and commercial scale generators.
…
Shortfalls in security investment mean action is needed for imminent transition points
Industry and governments are already acting to resolve known risks, with specific remedial action needed to navigate fast-approaching transition points:
System strength requirements to enable the planned retirement of Eraring Power Station have been identified by AEMO each year since 2021, and Transgrid is progressing the procurement of new synchronous condensers. The decommitment of Eraring before these synchronous condensers are operational would result in the activation of Transgrid system security contracts (where available). If security contracts are unavailable, operational intervention may be required by AEMO up to 30% of the time, at significant cost to consumers, to avoid potential consequences of greater severity. Furthermore, without these synchronous condensers the New South Wales power system could face periods where there may not be enough large synchronous units available for AEMO to direct online for system strength, creating a plausible risk of last-resort operational actions.
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1.2.3 Shortages of system security can have severe consequences
Despite best endeavours, the power system can, on rare occasions, experience cascading failures resulting in loss of supply to large portions of the power system. Recent examples – including on the Iberian Peninsula and Chile in 2025, Brazil in 2023 and 2018, and South Australia in 2016 – demonstrate how failures to maintain sufficient system security can lead to widespread blackouts with severe consequences.
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1.2.4 System security risks are asymmetric
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The period of infrastructure renewal and technology change in the NEM presents a heightened risk profile for system security. This is due to uncertainties associated with what asset and technology changes might occur, when, and the practicalities of commissioning new large infrastructure.
Major uncertainties include the timing of network augmentation, delivery of synchronous condensers and new generators, potential exit or connection of large loads, dependability of new technologies in providing certain security services, regular or seasonal decommitment of coal units under flexible operating regimes, changes to exit timing or unexpected plant failure. Statistically, failure rates increase as plants near the end of their planned operational life …
…
Read more: https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/tpss/2025-transition-plan-for-system-security.pdf
Wow. Who could have seen this coming, other than anyone with a brain and an ounce of engineering knowledge?
The AEMO is still talking like the renewable transition just needs a little adjustment, slightly earlier delivery of inertial stability systems, but big questions remain unanswered, like how to time shift the duck neck duck curve between peak solar around midday and peak demand in early evening. And even the AEMO admits to “major uncertainties”, including uncertainties over the “dependability of new technologies” in stabilising the grid.
One of my first software development gigs, many years ago, was working for a major Aussie state government electricity utility. The thing which impressed me was those guys had a real sense of mission, like police or emergency services. It wasn’t just a job to the electricity people, knew there would be real consequences if the grid went down, and saw it as their mission to keep the electricity flowing.
But how could anyone maintain that loyalty to mission in today’s net zero madhouse?
Coal plant operators, vilified as climate enemies, are trying to bail out of the sinking ship before they are forced into 5 year notice period contracts or whatever term of indentured servitude the Aussie government chooses to impose.
Gas plant operators are forced to play second fiddle to renewables, with the ever present threat of price controls if they try to make up lost revenue when the renewables inevitably stumble.
Hydropower – in a country as dry as Australia, there just isn’t that much to go around.
The Aussie mainstream opposition just cautiously backed away from Net Zero, which while a step in the right direction will depress investment even further.
And none of the other technologies meant to stabilise the coming renewable heavy grid is known to be fit for purpose – as the AEMO themselves admit.
The Aussie electricity grid is politicians playing a game of chicken against the laws of physics. And the green fanatics who run Australia have no intention of being the first to blink.
A Murdoch Media Sky News video on the situation is available here.
Correction (EW): I mentioned the “Duck Neck”, I should have said “Duck Curve”. The Duck Curve is the amount of load which has to be carried by sources other than solar and wind, with maximum load appearing in the early evening, when solar is dropping to zero.
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Story Tip:
COP30 the afterparty:
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2025/12/01/cop30-the-after-party/
Any competent engineer experienced in nation sized electrical generation will have known what was wrong with the government-enforced changes we have endured since 2000.
Australia has moved from about the cheapest, most reliable supply, based on coal burning, to among the most expensive, potentially unreliable electricity from windmills and solar panels as AEMO are starting to admit.
AEMO will have known the real costs and disadvantages of this “transition” but its past public statements have been worded to comply with Federal Government ideology. This ideology is in the hands of a few poorly educated, intellectually dim, socialist to communist representatives with little prior experience in grid electricity.
Some Australians brush off this national economic destruction by blithe words like “You get what you vote for”. There is another view, that of criminal corruption within the national electricity management system.
The heads of AEMO and a few other alphabets have a primary responsibility to the nation, before kowtowing to a few politicians. They would have had to approve of lies and known distortions of the truth to put the political nonsense first. They appear to be guilty of making false utterances for the personal gain of continued financial benefits from staying in office. Innocent, principled people would have resigned and called out the pressure to make up stories instead of being truthful.
My personal view is that a police investigation is appropriate, with charges of the false utterance type to follow when found.
Geoff S
I agree but we have to go to the source. And that is the Climate Change™ scam and those who have perpetuated it. Primarily from the UN and the useful idiots who have signed on to the scam in organisations like NASA and CSIRO.
Maybe Trump can put the cleaners into the UN like what is now happening in Ukraine.
The engineers involved in the NetZero nonsense will not be involved if they question the premise of the need to “decarbonise”. They are trying to find the lowest cost way to decarbonise other than kill all the people.
There is still some resistance at the UN to killing the plebs in order to save Earth.
Yes Geoff.
A rational person would have observed that the world already had 2 “canaries in the coal mine” with the debacles seen in Germany and the UK.
But no, the loonie green-left politicians in Australia had to make the country the 3rd “canary in the coal mine”.
Why would they expect the outcome to be any different to that already suffered by both Germany and the UK?
It’s as if they never heard the truism –
doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome is the definition of lunacy
New York and California should added to the canary flock.
This mess could be resolved if these knuckleheads were forced to communicate in plain English. All this techno babble does is allow them to talk without saying anything. If they were forced to clearly and plainly speak English it would sound like this. Wind and solar can’t support the grid or our modern society without government mandates, government subsidies, grid preference, tax incentives, 24/7 backup, 24/7 grid protection, guaranteed prices, payment whether they are producing or not in other words they need constant fossil fuel or nuclear backup. Even with all the advantages handed to them they don’t work. Fossil fuel and nuclear can support the grid easily without endangering it, they provide clean, affordable, reliable energy in the amount we want and when we want it. It is that simple, no techno babble needed.
There is a simple question that can be put to any NetZero zealot to test their commitment – do you operate your abode off-grid? If the answer is no then it is clear they are clueless about what they are talking about.
The best way to prove the viability of NetZero would be to give 3 years notice to remove the power cable feeding the UN headquarters. That gives them 3 years to make their site a NetZero site and prove to the world it is not fanciful.
In Energy, the Lunatics have taken over the Australian Asylum. Chris Bowen heads the team.
Here is the detail of that AEMO report. The two red flags are in NSW and Qld, the coal states. SA is pretty much in the clear; Vic has stuff still to do, but the AEMO assigns “moderate readiness”. As they say, we know what to do, it just has to be done on time. And there is time.
SA is in the clear because they have enough GAS and DIESEL and INTERCONNECTS from Victoria’s BROWN COAL to make up for their TINY DEMAND, even on windless nights.
All the other coal fired power station exits are covered with mumbo-gumbo, fake platitudes and wishful thinking.
Wind and solar are NOT new supplies that can “replace ” old supplies.
Mechanisms to “control” the grid are pointless with NO NEW RELIABLE SUPPLIES.
“Moderate readiness”. Is that why Queensland has been complaining about having to bail Victoria and NSW out of their stupidity, and why NSW is paying hundreds of millions per year to keep a single coal plant open?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/06/21/australias-green-car-crash-grid-will-now-face-harsher-government-price-fixing/
But I guess we’ll find out when the lunatics shut down the coal plants.
Eric, you are quoting a Qld conservative politician on issues of gas supply; nothing to do with electrical grid stability. But he’s a bit cheeky talking of pipeline capacity. Victoria had plenty of its own gas until a pipeline connected it with NSW and on to the Qld export terminals. Vic’s gas reserves got run down so someone in Qld could sell it for high export prices.
But anyway, nothing to do with grid stability, which Vic seems to be getting on top of.
“… you are quoting a Qld conservative politician on issues of gas supply …”
Ah, so the plan is to generate electricity with magic when the renewables fail and all the coal is gone.
“… Vic’s gas reserves got run down …”
No, Victoria enshrined a ban on fracking into their state constitution. Victoria has plenty of gas, all they have to do is frack it.
“.. nothing to do with grid stability, which Vic seems to be getting on top of …”
We’ll see.
Shame Victoria haven’t got on top of the price with all that free energy lifting prices by 37% in the twelve months.
Now our glorious leader Albo and his clowns say the “modelling was wrong” that predicted prices to fall. Yeah really and if you didn’t know that ahead of time you are either corrupt, stupid or incompetent.
Funny today they don’t want to talk about the models which say they will continue to rise by 66-166% into 2027. They are trying to beat up some distraction. Meanwhile One Nation is becoming extremely popular in Victoria even though Pauline hates the place.
This is the delusional nonsense that is at the core of Australia’s de-industrialisation.
ALL States in the NEM are coal States. You are delusional Nick. Early this morning, South Australia was getting 50% of its electricity from coal fired plant – see attached.
The yellow symbols mean they have low confidence that it can be done. And they would be right to have low confidence because it is impossible to drop any coal from the existing grid and not avoid huge energy costs and/or blackouts.
Australia is at a crossroads where it has to decide to continue on its path to economic destruction or call out the Climate Change™ scam and get back to increasing lignite consumption for producing electricity. The choice should be easy given POTUS Trump’s leadership on the appropriate direction.
I’m thinking that old mate Nick is a fine exhibit of my hypothesis that –
rationality and ideology cannot function in the same mind space at the same time.
Such a pity in many ways . . .
South Australia has the most expensive electricity in Australia by quite a margin at $0.44kWh … clearly they need more big batteries and renewables that is sure to bring there costs down 🙂
Australia – as many other countries, will need DOUBLE the electricity capacity in the not too distant future. What are you gonna do? Put up more panels? We are in the middle of a slow motion train wreck (now almost unstoppable) and you are offering the passengers to just look at the view.
Time to wake up and stop being a useful idiot.
He is offering the passengers a view and a glass of French wine. 🙂
More like a transport full of paratroopers on a plane whose engines are shot out with imperious leader Nick telling them staying on the plane is their best option.
“The two red flags are in NSW and Qld, the coal states”
Victoria is also a MAJOR coal user.
At times up to 80% or more of their electricity comes from BROWN COAL.
Even now, on the second day of summer, Victoria is using 60% BROWN COAL.
Victoria is a COAL-POWERED STATE.
Shut down Yallourn… and Victoria will collapse into third world darkness.
Nick,
The AEMO reports that I have read state that they report only findings that are consistent with prevailing government policy.
Therefore, they do not analyse for public consumption the scenario cost estimates of, for example, a NEM return to coal generation as the preferred and promoted future.
This (they imagine) makes them able to stay quiet when others question the statement that renewables are the cheapest large form of energy. It pardons them (they think) when they stay quiet when drawbacks of win energy are debated. Windmills kill eagles and Hawks and bats on a scale that would have invited shutdowns and prosecutions before 2000.
AEMO is defective because it marches to a distant drum, the one that provides their payroll. Missing from the equation is the requirement to tell the truth. Professionalism is out the window as they fib their ways through plausibly correct observations that they choose not to address because of policy.
Policy takes second place behind truth. Any official who has it back to front is liable to be investigated for knowingly making false utterances as I noted above.
There is no place in our society for people making laws, regulations and rules that are knowingly wrong. Their option is to resign to seek work in honest places.
I suspect, but do not know, that some AEMO employees are aware of deceit but ignore it for their pay packets. Some must know, for example, that the CSIRO modelling of renewables costs is not comprehensive and does not allow the conclusion that it is cheaper than another form of generation. They must know that the persistent cost increases of retail electricity show that renewables are not cheaper. But they present no argument.
Sorry, but this attitude by AEMO is not only very expensive, but also in one view illegal and deserving of punishment. If you depart from AEMO now, you reduce the possibility of time behind bars.
Geoff S
Geoff,
This happens so often here. A WUWT author (here Eric) wnts to make a case. Here it is that the Oz grid is in danger of failing stability. His story is based on an AEMO report.
So then the comentariat gets stuck into the AEMO.
OMG.. AEMO is saying they have GOOFED UP BIG TIME…
Of course rational people are having a go at them… as they should.
Only a very irrational and disingenuous person would try to defend them
Why would anyone defend the AEMO the very foundations of it were some stupid East Coast think tank of a national grid. Western Australians are peeved that the Labor government here were stupid enough to let our wholesale market join it in 2015 because Labor are trying to backdoor create a national grid and take control of it.
Read the bullsh#t that AEMO claims they will help with WA power
https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/inaugural-wa-whole-of-system-plan
Never seen so many catch phrases and garbage piled into one PR release. The clear plan is flights to Perth for meetings to rack up frequent flier miles for there holidays.
Here is your problem with Australian Government laid bare
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/political-hacks-getting-plum-jobs-report/ar-AA1RxeOn?
Fortunately well over half WA power generation is owned by mining companies and they don’t really care what government wants and how many hacks they appoint.
CSIRO modelling has been lacking in many ways.
Their climate models, for instance, are uniformly bogus.
It is a political organisation pushing political agendas…
… reality and accuracy be damned. !
Really ?
You need to read the text, not look at the pretty colors.
Of 16, one is accomplished (monitoring), 2 have claims of success.
13 or 16 have various degrees of RISK.
It has only taken 25 years for them to realise this.
The Finkel enquiry that became a cornerstone of the support for a WDG centred grid only worked on averages. The diversity fairy was going to fix the problem by ensuring energy could be shifted around the country from locations of surplus generation to where there was not enough.
The lesson there is that the diversity fairy was not told of her important role and often goes missing.
From 8pm to 10:30 pm last night, all available coal plants were at full throttle. Solar was gone; there was not a lot of wind anywhere and the batteries did a bit for 90 minutes with gas taking up the slack for about 4 hours.
There has to be enough generation available EVERY MILLISECOND OF EVERY DAY.
The other fact often forgotten is that the guaranteed output of solar and wind is zero. For example, at 5am this morning, there was no solar producing and the 13.4GW of installed wind could only manage 3.2GW. It does not matter how much wind capacity gets built, there will be times when next to none is available.
They’re playing games with the fat tail, when half an hour of backup capacity proves inadequate, they’ll try adding another half hour.
Chris Uhlmann on the Tom Nelson podcast:
“like how to time shift the duck neck”
The what with the who?
Duck curve – the difference between solar output and demand. I’ve added an explanation to the main article.
It is no longer a duck curve in SA. It is a chasm that sounds the death knell for utility scale wind and solar.
Attached is what SA looks like without rooftops and export or imports. Not much like a duck
If there was no rooftop, they could have generated a lot more from wind.
I think what you meant to say is “If there was no rooftop, they could have used more of what they happenedto generate from wind.”
What gets generated from wind is after all at the mercy of the weather. Having less solar won’t change it.
Leave the poor duckies alone!
JoNova reported AEMO couldn’t even get the basics right in their renewables blackout planning. It took the media to find the flaws.
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/12/big-wind-and-solar-investors-flee-australia-electricity-prices-rise-37-and-blackout-warnings-fill-the-news/
Dear Eric,
I’m no electrical engineer, but everyone seems to miss that hydro and coal generators embed a feed-back loop between electrical demand and supply.
An equivalent loop is not available in supply-only grids – solar panels and wind-driven dynamos. When I was a kid, I had a bike with a 3.5v DC dynamo driven off the rim of the front tyre – while never very bright, the faster you pedalled, the brighter it shone, which is curse of unregulated power – the more lights that turn on the dimmer they get.
Also, as a kid and young adult I visited the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme Tumut-2 power station buried deep under the mountains. The machine-hall contained from memory, six water-driven turbines. The guide pointed out that like at other (coal powered) power stations, they had to spin at a constant rate.
Output – that is, electricity instantaneously generated, depended on the excitation current supplied to the field-windings in the spinning rotor.
So, at the top of each turbine, above the bearing, were large bushes that supplied the DC current that determined the magnetic field of the rotor. A voltage regulator monitors the output voltage and supplies DC excitation current proportional to the load. So, if the load increases instantaneously or ramps-up, the DC current (the magnetic field) increases to meet the load and vice-versa.
While hydro-power (and gas) can be bought on-stream (or not) relatively quickly to fill load-gaps – due to inertia and lags between creating steam and cooling-down, then restarting, coal stations need to keep spinning all the time at the same rate. Thus, at periods of low demand they spin without contributing to the grid (rotor magnets are switched off), and only come-on-line when regulated supply faulters.
As a simple analogy, like my pushbike, cars used to have generators – dynamos with a voltage regulator – the lights went dim (insufficient current at 12V) at idle, and were brightest at speed up to a maximum that would blow the bulbs if voltage exceeded 12. Now cars run with alternators where via a different type of regulator that holds voltage constant, load determines output – much more stable and reliable.
The Earing thing is about Comalco (RioTinto) potentially shutting their aluminium smelter at Tomago in 2028. Carbon offsets due to the Safeguard Mechanism will force them off-shore anyway (probably to Indonesia). With union pressure building and many jobs at stake, the government is trying to woo them to stay after 2028 (by keeping Earing open). When they go, which, in order to remain viable, they must, the government can try to shaft them instead of the unions and themselves.
With John Connor, former chatterer at The Climate Institute, then the talking-face of COP23 in Fiji (which achieved nothing), then the head of the Carbon Market Institute, having been installed as talking-head Policy and Communications at the Net Zero Economy Authority, everyone will get paid-off and all will be happy evermore.
Australians are witnessing the total bottoming-out of what once what was our democracy.
Yours sincerely
Dr Bill Johnston
http://www.bomwatch.com.au
Hello Dr Bill
I just wanted to clarify the operation of synchronous machines on the AC system.
Yes the rotor excitation amount will increase with increased load (MW) on a generator. But that has more to due with needed flux density for maintaining a nominal voltage at the high voltage bus.
If we look at a conventional generator. For this example, a large steamer (coal).
When it is brought up in speed, prior to synchronization to the bulk system (closing high side breakers) the operator just prior to closing in is adjusting speed (3600rpm 2 pole generator on 60hz system) and high side bus voltage to the outside world, or the bulk electric system.
If everything is exactly perfect. Frequency (rotor speed) and voltage (rotor excitation). When the breakers close there is no flow at the point of interconnect at the bus. No MW and no MVAR.
If the frequency is perfect and the rotor excitation is too much the MVAR flow is out to the bus and voltage rises. And if excitation is too low MVAR will flow into the generator and bus voltage decreases. Both examples there would be no MW flow. And generator system losses are self served and before the metering. (Of course this is all theory and not real world practice. Generators have low operating limits for stability and possibility of prime movers damage.)
With a slight frequency deviation. Rotor speed (frequency)is faster than the system there will be a sudden increase of MW flow out to the bus (generating). Opposite if the rotor speed is slower than the system. (Motoring)
Once initial inrush flow you stabilize at a flow in or out and a voltage at the bus higher or lower depending how far you are off on both rotor excitation and prime mover speed.
Now that information leads us to better understand how we manipulate the prime movers of a steam turbine to produce MW output.
Once synchronized to the system. And with system it’s say it large. One generator isn’t going to effect the system frequency under normal operations. The system is too strong with its mass of generators all electrically bonded together.
The prime movers. This example a steam turbine. Is called for more steam. Simply put increase MW output. More steam is input to the turbines, more torque to the shaft of the generator trying to spin faster. Though stator winding frequency is the same as system frequency (N and S poles alternating in that winding) the rotor poles are now trying to past the stator.
It is very slight misalignment of the flux path causes more flow. With that increased flow requires more reactive power to keep the flux strength. While some of that could come from the bulk system, the voltage would then go down at the generator bus. Keep increasing the demand eventually the power into the shaft is geater than the flux strength to the stator and you “slip a pole”, tripping off line due to loss of sync. That flux strength is automatically remedied by the rotor excitation (AVR) to hold a predetermined voltage set point at the bus.
Yes the excitation does increase with power out. But it is not the driver of power output.
On low load or generation that can run to no load. The excitation systems are never turned off unless the generator breakers are open and prime mover removed (unit off line). If only the prime mover is removed you then have a synchronous condenser tied to the system. They have a constant low load to the system of winding and copper losses. The rotor and AVR can only manipulate MVAR/voltage on the bulk system push out or pull in MVAR. that right there is a tell on prime movers and real power flow. Because there is no magic. You need to deliver a mechanical power to convert to electrical power.
Long time reader, first time poster.
Hello!
Thanks for filling-in some blanks Michael,
I was just relaying a story, not claiming expertise. I guess in retro, it would be handy to have an expert do a post that filled in the detail so that even dumbos like me could understand more completely what and why this is happening.
(The political chess-game aside – which will invariably play out with Comalco closing their Tomago facility – then one by one, the others, including steel, will also be forced off-shore.)
For example, I probably guess that the need for Chinese-made spinning capacitors it to undertake the type of current control presently undertaken by power-stations and that the more they are closed, the more we will need tons of steel with a bearing at each end spinning to take over their role – which is about the limit of my knowledge. I do know a bit about climate thou!
stiry-tip!
Cheers,
Bill
http://www.bomwatch.com.au
My first job after high school was with the Royal Australian Air Force Academy. I was required to take an oath on how to conduct myself in office. There were words in the preamble like “truth, whole truth and nothing but the truth”.
I would be concerned that some AEMO people today might not be abiding by that ideal.
Geoff S
I am a 71 year old Eagle Scout.
A Scout is TRUSTWORTHY.
I appreciate and honor your service.
They going with the “China Model” and building new coal power generation plants? I wonder, how much gas is under their feet? Perhaps, instead of following China’s dictats they should build gas power generation plants instead.
Der Fisch stinkt vom Kopf her (the fish rots from the head). Yes AEMO has stuffed up, and is now deflecting as hard as it can by hinting at instability when the problem is unreliable supply. But the rot comes from government, and it would be reasonable to suppose that anyone in AEMO who hints at the real problem loses their job.
He sums up the energy big picture well which really boils down to economics but you can see how she struggles with the truth-
How Foreign Influence Is Rewriting Australia’s Energy Policy with Gerard Holland
Women are half the voting population so the green message resonates emotionally despite the futility of it all especially with the carpetbaggers and subsidy miners. I’ve got subsidised solar panels on my roof not because I believe it has anything to do with saving the planet but you just have to work within the given dumbass paradigm and I can’t cure the fallacy of composition problem. The only big red flag for all is the rising cost of energy and the ongoing collapse of energy intensive industry like he says.
Neither AEMO nor the Ozonian advocates of a green energy future are willing to perform an all-up engineering feasibility analysis for a 90% wind and solar power grid for all of Australia which demonstrates the technical and economic feasibility of such a grid.
Why? Because to do so would expose the enormous financial costs and the enormous project risks of moving to a 90% wind and solar power grid in the timeframe Australia’s green energy advocates claim is possible. (Or to get there at all, actually.)
However, I will note once again as I did two years ago that a collaborative effort among Australia’s green energy critics could produce a crowd-sourced feasibility design for a 90% wind & solar power grid which is technically credible and which could then be used for professionally estimating its associated project costs, project schedule, and its project risks.
For the grid design itself, one could take a reasonably detailed look at which green energy components best go where on the Australian continent; how many wind turbines, solar panels, and storage batteries are needed; and what kinds of upgrades to the Australian power transmission and distribution system are needed, including such components as grid-forming inverters and all-of-continent generation control coordination systems. (Etc. etc.)
And then, based on what the feasibility design effort produces, develop a reasonably documented estimate as to what it will cost and how long it will take.
Hey all you Australian anti-RE guys and gals …. You’ve been talking these RE issues for years on end, but little has changed in all that time. Take a new tack and get into the nitty-gritty details of the issue in a way which produces a centrally-documented basis of technical and economic criticism — a documented analysis product which can be used as a foundation for effective political action.
They can build all the “synchronous condensers” they want, it won’t save them.
When the wind isn’t blowing and the Sun isn’t shining, NONE OF IT WORKS, and you damn well better have enough COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR to get your grid off the mat!