By P Gosselin on 11. October 2025
German online Klimanachrichten (Climate News) presents the latest article by energy expert Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. Germany is in the grips of an energy madness.
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Headed for crisis
Vahrenholt warnsthat German energy policy is inexorably heading towards a supply crisis that is foreseeable as early as 2030. With every coal or nuclear power plant shut down, supply security is crumbling as the Federal Government stubbornly adheres to the unrestrained expansion of volatile renewable energies without ensuring sufficient backup capacity.
Even the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) under Klaus Müller warns in its security of supply report: By 2035, up to 35,500 MW of additional controllable capacity will be needed – equivalent to about 70 gas power plants. As early as 2030, a deficit of up to 21,000 MW is expected. This gap will inevitably lead to massive power supply bottlenecks during periods of Dunkelflaute (low wind and no solar radiation).
Global reality versus German planning
The central problem: These gas power plants can never be built within the next five years. The three largest gas turbine manufacturers (Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, Mitsubishi) are already fully booked until 2030, driven by the massive need for data centers in the USA (50 new gas power plants) and the hunger for energy in developing countries (e.g., 22 power plants in Vietnam).
Germany would have to secure the turbines at extremely high prices, essentially diverting them from developing nations, which would then resort to coal. Gas turbine prices have already tripled. Nothing would be gained for the climate – only German costs would be astronomically high.
The destruction of German industry
To cover up the misery, the BNetzA is planning a direct attack on energy-intensive German industry. Under the AgNES project, the so-called “Bandlastrabatt“ (base-load tariff discount) for the 560 companies in the basic materials industry (chemicals, metals, glass), which operate 24/7, is to be abolished. The justification: Industry must become the scapegoat for the failed energy policy and “flexibilize“ its production according to the wind and weather.
This is simply impossible for continuous processes like copper or glass production. The cancellation of the €1.42 billion discount is of existential importance for the basic materials industry.
The shocking cost forecast
The consequences of this misguided path will be borne not only by industry but also by consumers. Calculations predict massive increases in grid costs:
- Industry: Up to an additional 7 euro cents/kWh.
- Private households: Up to 20 euro cents/kWh additionally, which corresponds to a power price increase of over 50%.
The planned special levy on electricity (up to 2 euro cents/kWh) to finance the gas power plants is another disadvantage in global competition and an additional burden for citizens.
Conclusion: sacrifice on the green altar
German energy policy, driven by the “green paladins” in the federal agencies, is steering German industry towards collapse and private households towards a cost explosion. Those who produce in Germany are already being called “insane” on the capital market.
It is high time for the political leadership in Berlin to halt this energy policy madness before German industry is finally sacrificed on the altar of the ideologically misguided energy transition.
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Story Tip: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aussie-climate-agency-concedes-it-did-not-scrutinize-data-behind-major-climate-risk
Emphasis mine. Otherwise known as weasel-words and fear-mongering.
Not a “prediction,” so that they can continue to claim they’re not wrong when those non-predictions continue to not happen.
“Die Mutter”, jag har förträngt hennes namn var DDRs skickligaste plantering. Hon är ju roten till vansinnespolitiken i Tyskland!
She may have started it, but others continue the madness.
story tip This Time article needs a good debunking. https://time.com/7325086/coral-reef-climate-tipping-point-crossed/
Eric Worrall posted an article on the (Australian) ABC’s “reporting” of the Global Systems Institute / University of Exeter “Global Tipping Points” report a couple of days ago.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/13/claim-weve-hit-a-climate-change-tipping-point/
Whether (or not) that article — when combined with the comments underneath it — counts as a “good debunking” is, of course, a subjective opinion …
Australia has already de-industrialised. The only heavy industry still going is on welfare.
Both grid scale solar and wind are now stranded assets.
There is $800M invested in grid solar in South Australia and its revenue will end up around AUD40M this year. Its peak year was AUD57M in 2018.
Likewise wind has AUD5bn invested and its income also peaked in 2018.
Rooftops have eroded their demand so savagely that their curtailment is now more than their output. They do not get paid for economic curtailment in Australia.
“They do not get paid for economic curtailment in Australia.”
Europe should do the same. Paying windmill and solar companies not to feed electricity into the grid is one reason the cost of electricity goes higher.
They should follow the Dutch who are charging €0.115/kWh for rooftop solar exports.
In the next few years Germany will discover why electing sociopathic socialists is never a good idea. At least this time foreign bombers will not be needed to destroy their industry and infrastructure. This time the Mad Marxist zealots of Climastrology will destroy their own country and its populace to usher in their fever dream Utopia!
People of all western nations will soon discover that cultural Marxism was just the tip of the iceberg.
Replacement Marxism will be the biggest problem to fight.
Replacement of energy,economy,culture and even their populations.
German politicians have been getting these warnings for years but they are not listening.
CO2-phobia has them firmly in its grip.
Story Tip.
There is an interesting editorial in the UK Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/14/the-guardian-view-on-the-rising-risk-from-flooding-uninsurable-buildings-should-focus-minds-on-climate-adaptation
This is nominally about flooding risks becoming uninsurable in the UK because of course Global Warming aka ‘Global Heating’ in Guardianspeak. But the interesting thing is that after the usual bow in the direction of lowering (global) emissions, the piece then turns to the specific recommendations of UK adaptation – flood control measures.
This is the first sign of admission that the great program of reducing global emissions is not going to happen, that (implicitly) the UK getting to Net Zero will have no effect on UK climate and weather.
And changing the subject to the issue of local environmental action.
The Guardian, or bits of it, may be slowly and carefully waking up. This is how its happening, no dramatic mea culpa or U-turn, just a change of emphasis and selection of what we talk about.
Paris and global emission reduction is dead. Notice how Paris is never talked about now? They will eventually come to see that UK Net Zero is also not going to happen, and would have no effect if it did. And so they change the subject to local flood prevention, which is the only thing that the UK can affect. And at least such programs are possible to assess in a rational engineering manner, and might actually do some good and be worth the investment.
There was severe flooding in the UK town where I lived in the late 1960s. A kid in my class drowned.
It has not flooded there again in 60 years. There were no flood defences put in.
By all means put in flood defences where there is chronic flooding, even if it is a result of foolish development there or nearby. But floods are as often one-and-done as chronic. Flood defences are relatively cheap, and cheaper still if done only where likely to be useful. (And if they act as intended, which is a whole other conversation.)
Right now in the UK, wind and solar facilities are generating 4.55GW between them, this from a combined installed capacity of 56.43GW (solar:20.99GW; wind: 35.44GW assuming 90% availability). So these facilities are operating at a combined load factor – efficiency – of . . . 8.06%!!
With current demand at 34.6GW, of which 24.69GW is being provided by gas and biomass facilities – not forgetting biomass produces more CO2 per kWh than coal – and if all these horrible CO2 producing facilities are to be removed by 2030, think about the size and cost of the necessary battery system that would have to be established should current weather conditions last for a period of one week, which is not uncommon.
So, to cover for 24.69GW over the period of a week, because CO2 producing facilities – gas and biomass – will be removed by 2030, of course, battery facilities would have to be capable of delivering 4,147.9GWh over the one week period.
Using LFP batteries, the battery set would weight 41.5 MILLION tonnes, which is the equivalent of 638 Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers, and the cost would be £415 BILLION.
Notwithstanding cost, that the UK produces NOT ONE TONNE of the required metals and minerals needed to construct such a battery set – the refined production of these being totally controlled by China – how an utterly incompetent/or lying idiot like Dead’Ed Miliband can talk of establishing “energy security and energy independence” through wind and solar generation is . . . totally beyond me.
Ed is not a smart man.
But surely he is, Mr Editor – he’s a graduate of Oxford University, no less!! But admittedly there is a problem – he’s a Politics Philosophy and Economics (PPE) graduate, so strictly should not have anything to do with matters science and engineering. That aside, I’m pretty sure he’s smart enough to determine the difference between engineering reality and utter bullsh#t . . . and hence I suspect he must be an outright liar.
There are no smart men who actually believe there is a “climate crisis” and definitely no smart men who think we can power modern civilization with breezes and sunshine.
https://www.howtopronounce.com/dunkelflaute
I’ve looked that one up myself!
They think it is bad now? Wait till Putin starts droning their energy infrastructure and blaming Zelensky for it.
All predicted here 15 years ago at least.
Pitchforks and torches time?
That’s my favorite line! 🙂
Remember, remember the 5th…take the clue, Brit commentators…if a Yank knows the poem…
Soros has spent his $billions toward the ‘orderly decline of the West’. He has been successful.
Wouldn’t Super Critical CO2 be a possible solution for Germany’s expectant problem of high Gas Turbine prices? Too, I’ve read that Super Critical CO2 is said to be 10% to 15% more efficient, making a transition to it a Win/Win. It matters not from where the needed heat comes; except of course Socialist/Marxist care, ergo the real problem for Germany. The stupid burns; if only it produced heat!
It’s a bit late if they want some more gas generating capacity: order books are full years ahead. The UK will be facing the same problem having been utterly complacent about the need for dispatchable capacity and the likely decommissioning timeline for old plant.
Meanwhile we have been seeing the early hints of consequences in the current bout of Dunkelflaute that has affected most of Europe. Germany has been short of power, and importing on every route it can. Because the weather isn’t too cold overall demand is about manageable, but even the UK has been roped into propping up Germany with exports via Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium. When the weather gets cold it will be extreme prices that decide who gets power and who has to lower their demand.
“When the weather gets cold”
what you on about? You don’t live in France.
Here it’s been largely wind free and freezing cold and damp in the horrible fog for a week.
ie. all those solar panels forget it, and the wind farms are waste of space.
Everyone around us has started up their heating. (lots with stinky wood!)
We not cos we have to choose.- eat or heat!
Lucky most of the energy of the region is provided by the big NPP not far away.
It goes without saying, get the government out of the energy production and transmission business. We don’t have an energy or climate problem, we have a government problem.