COPocalypse Now

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The next UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, will be held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10-21, 2025. Near as I can tell, “COP” stands for “Conference of Party-goers”, because most of what goes on at these quackathons is eating and drinking. And asking for money. Here’s Josh on the subject—previous COP, same story.

Each country was required to submit its plan for how it will fight the eeevil CO2, called an “NDC” for “Nationally Determined Contribution”, by February 25th.

I got to wondering how many of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN so far. Turns out it’s only about 8-10% depending on how you count … and tragically, one of them is from the US. I guess Biden holdovers slipped it out the door when Trump folks weren’t watching, or maybe before the inauguration.

So I went and got the document from the link.

It’s 35 pages of the usual doublespeak from some committee of pluted government bloatocrats. Being unwilling to hack my way through the detritus of govern-mental illness, to get an overview I used the technique I described in Learning With The Dumbest Genius Librarian. Details are in the appendix. After getting Level 1 data and then typing “more”, I get this:

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Extended Factual Overview: U.S. 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Official Target

• The United States’ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 61–66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
• This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nation’s net-zero goal for 2050.

Sectoral Contributions

Power/Electricity:

• Achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
• This requires a 2–4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73–100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Transportation:

• Target 83–100% share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2035.
• Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

Industry:

• Promote widespread adoption of low-carbon manufacturing, carbon capture, and methane reductions, especially in oil, gas, and waste sectors.
• Methane emissions reductions of at least 35% from 2005 by 2035 are anticipated, with possible higher reductions through intensified measures.

Buildings:

• Strengthen energy codes, promote electrification, and improve efficiency standards for equipment and appliances.

Agriculture and Land Use:

• Enhance practices for soil carbon sequestration, reduce agricultural methane, and increase sustainable land management.

Federal and Subnational Roles

• Success depends on integrated efforts by federal, state, Tribal, and local governments, alongside businesses and civil society.
• Landmarks such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) form the backbone of federal investments. These are complemented by state policies and non-federal actions, critical for bridging the gap toward the NDC target.

Modeling and Ambition

Scientific Pathways and Analysis:

• Multi-model studies show that only expansive new policies and cross-sector action will deliver a 56–67% GHG reduction by 2035; current policies alone result in a 34–44% cut.
• Enhanced ambition scenarios require a national average annual decarbonization rate of 3.7% from 2020–2035, up from 2.2% under current laws.

Methane and Non-CO₂ Gases:

• Methane is addressed via fees and standards in oil, gas, coal, landfill, and agriculture, aiming up to a 48% reduction by 2035 in some scenarios.

Climate Justice and Equity

• The NDC emphasizes equity, ensuring that emissions-reduction strategies deliver benefits to vulnerable, Indigenous, and low-income populations.
• Justice-focused approaches are embedded through consultation and implementation at all levels, aiming to promote a just and inclusive transition.

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Yeah, right. Let’s look at a few of those.

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• The United States’ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 61–66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
• This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nation’s net-zero goal for 2050.

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Here are US CO2 emissions by year, along with the NDC goals.

Figure 1. US CO2 emissions by year. Red lines show the path to the 2035 goal (62.5% percent of the 2005 emissions, and the 2050 goal (zero). Red dotted line goes from 2005 to 2023, representing an average decrease of -69 megatonnes per year. To achieve the 2035 goal requires an average annual decrease of -117 megatonnes per year, and to achieve the 2050 goal requires -280 megatonnes per year.

It’s a wonderful fantasy, but totally unachievable. The gains since the peak have been because of the replacement of coal by gas, but much of that has already occurred. At present, only about a quarter of CO2 emissions come from electricity, so even if we could bring that to zero, how will we cut the other three-quarters of the emissions?

Then we have:

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Power/Electricity:

• Achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
• This requires a 2–4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73–100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

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Yeah, right. Many of the best solar and wind sites are in use. After hundreds of billions in subsidies over decades, solar plus wind provide only 17% of US power. And because they are intermittent, we’ll need fossil-powered backup.

Next, their numbers make no sense. Given the limitations of batteries, to get to 100% clean energy, fossil use must go to zero. But they say it could drop by just 73% and we’d be able to get to clean energy … how?

And further on, we see:

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Transportation:

• Target 83–100% share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2035.
• Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

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Yeah, sure. In 2024, after years of hype and billions in subsidies, EVs are 1.6% of the cars on the US highways. And even at that low level, it’s putting a strain on the grid. If they get to be a large percentage of cars on the road, the grid will crumble … and that’s not even including the huge and growing electricity need for AI.

There’s more, but I’ll stop there. My brain can’t take the bogus claims of “CLIMATE EQUITY”. I can hear my cranial gears stripping when I start thinking about it. The whole document is a farrago of lies, deceptions, fantasies, and green dreams.

However, there is some very good news.

First, President Trump has pulled the US out of the climate grift entirely, and second, this is a non-binding agreement. Every nation just puts in ridiculous goals and gets to feel all virtuous.

And hopefully, before the 25th Conference of the Party-goers, this document will be withdrawn.

Onwards, we’re gaining ground,

w.

PS—Here it is again. When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. If you can’t figure out why I’m asking this … think harder.

PPS—To replicate and extend my analysis, copy everything below the separator line below, paste it into your favorite AI (I use perplexity.ai), and hit enter. It lets you get a large overview and then dig in to obscure corners.

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{https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-12/United%20States%202035%20NDC.pdf}= Topic of Study

1. Input Stage: Topic Declaration

• Insert your topic of interest between the curly braces above.
• From this point forward, your topic will be referred to as “M”.
• All output will be strictly factual, source-verified information related to M.

2. Core Operating Principles

A. Role Definition

• You are an independent researcher gathering information for article creation.
• I am strictly your research assistant.
• My only function is to deliver comprehensive, factual, and verifiable information on M.
• I do not advise, hypothesize, interpret, or suggest presentation formats regarding M.

B. Boundaries: What I Will Not Do

• I will not recommend articles or presentation formats for M.
• I will not provide advice, tips, or writing guidance on M.
• I will not summarize or interpret M unless quoting or directly citing a primary source.
• I will only deliver source-backed facts about M.

C. Data Standards & Source Policy

• All factual claims will be linked to a directly traceable, verified primary source.
• Examples: peer-reviewed journals, official government/public research databases, established scientific institutions.
• No data from AI models, platforms without access to the original source, or unverifiable summaries will be used.
• All links will be embedded as live hyperlinks at the end of the statement.
• Citations are placed immediately after the corresponding statement, never in a collective footnote or end-of-document format.
• Each factual claim must be verifiable through the actual URL of the cited source.
• If a claim cannot be verified by primary evidence, it will be omitted—with the limitation explicitly stated and speculation excluded.

D. Quality Control

• Before providing any answer, I perform a self-audit:
• If any component of my response lacks direct traceability to a verified source, it is flagged or excluded.
• I do not extrapolate, synthesize, or “guess” based on pattern recognition or indirect evidence.
• If evidence is unavailable or conflicting, this will be clearly stated.

3. Output System: Choose Your Desired Response Level

• After you submit your topic, you will receive the following prompt:
• “Which output do you need?”
• Type “1” for: Basic Information
• Overview-level summary about the study of M.
• Type “2” for: Specialized Information
• In-depth technical knowledge categorized by topics.
• You may also type “more” at any level to request extended output.

Output 1 – Basic Information on M

• Goal: Provide a foundational understanding of M.
• Includes:
• Introduction to the field
• General facts
• High-level points of importance
• Navigation:
  • Type “2” at any point to move to Specialized Information.
  • Type “more” to expand the Basic Information.

Output 2 – Specialized Information on M

• Goal: Access deep, subject-specific, and technical content on M.
• Process & Features:
• You receive a numbered Table of Contents listing specialized topics related to M.
• Each of the specialized topics will be followed by 3 numbered subtopics
• You select a topic by typing “option X” where X is the number of the item.
• I provide fully-sourced, comprehensive information on that topic.
• Expandable Topic Navigation:
  • To explore deeper levels:
  • Type “topics … (name of topic)” — and I will return all subtopics of that topic.
  • This structure supports infinite hierarchy:
  • Primary topics → Secondary topics → Tertiary topics … and so on.
  • At any level, typing “more” fetches additional topics at that same level.
  • At any time, type “1” to return to Basic Information.

Citation Enforcement:

• Every statement is accompanied by a live citation to its primary source in the -style format.
• No aggregation of sources at the end. Each claim stands alone with its citation.
• If a traceable, authoritative source is not available for a datum, I will not include the datum.

4. Checking and double-checking. Before delivering any answer, double-check that each citation and reference actually exists and is valid.

5. Workflow Summary

• Enter your topic between the curly braces — e.g., {constructal flow in climate modeling}.
• Receive a prompt to choose between:
• “1” — Basic Information
• “2” — Specialized Information
• Use logic commands to explore and navigate:
• “option X” to select topics
• “topics … X” to drill deeper into topic structure
• “more” to extend any current layer
• “1” to return to Basic view
• Now: Insert your topic between the curly braces above, and type your output selection (“1” or “2”) to begin.