Essay by Eric Worrall
“… Even though we might be seeing record high prices at the moment, and therefore record high revenue for governments, the overall trend is going to be downwards. …”
The fingerprints of climate change are all over a budget navigating an economy in transition
By climate reporter Jess Davis and climate lead Tim Leslie
Posted Sat 18 May 2024 at 5:35am…
Modelling of natural disasters in different climate scenarios could see government spending increase exponentially.
…
Preparing for the end of the fossil fuel era
While it’s full of figures and tables, the budget also is an opportunity for the government to draw attention to things it thinks are important. And this year it highlighted an unexpected boon from record fossil fuel profits.
“Strong corporate profits, including from iron ore and coal prices in late 2023 and the very early part of 2024 exceeding those assumed in MYEFO and robust demand, contribute to an upgraded company tax outlook,” the papers say.
But it is also warning that we can’t keep relying on these profits in the future.
“Australia’s exports will be increasingly comprised of low carbon products. Over 97 per cent of Australia’s trading partners have set net zero targets,” the papers say.
Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Deputy Director Alison Reeve says Australia needs to be ready for this drop.
“As the world commits to net zero and coal, oil and gas start to decline, there should be less tax revenue coming into the government as well and that also has an effect on the budget,” she said.
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-18/federal-budget-2024-climate-hange-impacts/103847322
This in my opinion is a prime example of the fantasy world climate believers live in.
The end of fossil fuel is a fiction. The only downward pressure on fossil fuel use in Western nations is regulatory lunacy and the ongoing export of our manufacturing industry to other nations.
That fossil fuel powered manufacturing is still happening, and we are very much still using the products of a coal based economy, but because the coal and gas burning is happening in other countries, greens frantically pretend we are somehow disconnecting our economies from burning carbon based fuels.
The only question is, what will our descendants do when the coal runs out? Because it is inevitable we will burn or otherwise use every scrap of recoverable fossil fuel on the planet.
There is no chance politicians will leave fossil fuel in the ground. Even the greenest politicians ditch their alleged principles when they strike a rich source of fossil fuel. As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau once said, “No Country Would Find 173 Billion Barrels Of Oil In The Ground And Just Leave Them”
Let us hope when fossil fuel finally runs out, many centuries from now, our descendants have figured out nuclear fusion, because the next best source of carbon after we run out of coal is either limestone or mining the ocean for its CO2 content, and doing either would take a lot of energy.
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Over 97 per cent of fat people make new years resolutions to lose weight.
Australia’s major trading partners cohort is dominated by China.
Who has no intentions of reducing fossil fuels usage.
“97%” seems to be the settled propaganda number for Marxists who practice their perfidy.
97% is my “go to” number when I need a number.
Example: 97% of EVs are still on the road. The other 3% made it to a charger. 🙂
And here I thought you were going to say that the other 3% are toast (literally).
That had me choking! My wife had to know what brought it on. Laughed so hard!
The remaining 3% are China, India and Brazil.
LOL, yes what they neglect to mention is that the 3% that didn’t are the “trading partners” that account for the vast majority of their exports.
Over 97% of Australias trading partners will fail to meet them.
But the fantasy of Arcadian Socialism is so attractive to the Green Blob, nothing will be allowed to stand in its way.
When and if the rest of society realizes the Green Blob is a nihilist millenarian cult, their goals will simply be dealt with by being treated with the amused contempt they deserve.
But they’ll spring up again with a new reason for global disaster. They’ve been with us since of recorded history. They’re very flexible!
I’m 100% invested in oil and have been for many years…making big coin currently…I knew the time would come when the renewable dream would be exposed for the garbage it is.We’re almost there.!!
I have never believed a word of the green dream…Happy to run with nuclear if govt’s can be persuaded to build them….nuclear appears to be the only viable alternative to fossil fuels..
My main investments are in Coal and Iron Ore.
(Twiggy’s strange attitude makes me concerned about my FMG shares…
… but they were bought at $4.33 and are now worth $27.24.)
Is FMG Fortescue Metals Group or First Mining Gold and what exchange are you trading in?
And then only for electricity. Until they have miniature reactor powered cars.
End subsidies for wind and solar and save trillions of $s and BTW, end subsidies for EVs too while we’re at it !!
Hold on dear to this 2021 chart. Probably the last time you can pretend renewables and electrification don’t change the energy landscape at unprecedented speed 😀
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/05/20/solar-and-wind-generation-will-soon-pass-nuclear-and-hydro/
A propaganda rag dedicated to photo voltaics would say anything negative?
The magazine distances itself from the article –
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
Prudent move 🙂
PV Magazine is a trade-mag published in Germany…my recollection is they don’t publish any articles that aren’t written by their staff (could have changed).
A reasonably intelligent person would realize that magazine is not objective. Probably anyone with an IQ of 100.
Plus they don’t know how to do arithmetic.
My good deed for today = helping you to stop making an idiot of yourself.
Please read and attempt to comprehend these facts –
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/what-media-wont-tell-you-about-energy-transition?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true
Nice, but incomplete for the full picture.
“The
forcedenialism is strong with this one, Luke.”The full picture doesn’t get much fuller than this –
nice, I’ll send that around Wokeachusetts
Just add the spending on fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels make a HUGE contribution of modern society.
Everything in your pitiful existence is there because of fossil fuels.
Wind and solar only TAKE !!..
Massive subsidies, destroy grids, lead to large electricity price increases.
They provide absolutely nothing of any value… except to the billionaire subsidy scammers.
spend on fossil fuels, get relatively low cost dependable energy
Wind and solar are carbon intensive technologies. The chart verifies that. They consume more carbon than they save. China learnt that about a decade ago and shifted from using what they made to exporting to the lunatic asylum.
Although France is importing intermittency that forces up their energy price they are gradually gaining a competitive advantage over the rest of Europe. But no nation can compete with China because they have no reservations about burning coal.
When MyUsername shows evidence of operating off-grid with solar, wind and batteries MyUsername will understand something about these technologies. Until that point it is ear-to-ear void.
“relatively low capacity factor, solar generation is “
Utterly hopeless
In Australia, wind and solar are often a pointless non-supply
Currently
NSW… 85% coal and Gas
Qld… 91% coal and gas
Vic… 76% coal and gas 11% Hydro
even “renewables” SA is 58% gas (of a much smaller demand)
Then you have the big players, China and India…. where wind and solar are a very small contributor.
You have been sucked in by propaganda mal-information.. yet again, poor gullible twerp. !
“poor gullible twerp”
probably a high school kid
I think you have over-estimated its mental age !
Do you really think there is enough manufacturing capacity to support a 22% annual growth rate for PV along with replacement for aging panels? Can that much PV be connected to the grid? Do you think the dismal average capacity factor will stay at the same level as the prime real estate is taken up and solar is extended farther north and south?
and yes.. renewables absolutely do destroy the landscape !
renewables absolutely do destroy the landscape !
Apparently, that’s a bonus for some.
Did you read this tripe and check any references for yourself this time or did you expect others to do your homework for you again?
I’m guessing the latter
“Over the past decade, global solar generation has grown ninefold to reach 1,500 TWh per year while wind generation has tripled to 2300 TWh per year…” (PV Magazine)
Global electricity demand is well over 30 000TWh, and expected to increases annually at the rate of 6%.
The input from solar and wind is 12%, and is intermittent. As the demand increases, the proportional input from wind/solar is likely to decrease.
For context… the total global energy demand is 160 000TWh of which oil, gas and coal provided 77%.
It’s going to take a lot of wind mills and solar panels to replace that.
At the end of 2023 China had 609GW of solar energy, 20.9% of installed capacity. Yet solar’s share of electricity production was only 3% during the year “reflecting low solar capacity utilisation rates”
Climate Energy Finance ‘2023 China Electricity Mix Yearly Review (30.1.2024)
The warmunists cannot give up predicting the demise of fossil fuels any more than they can give up predicting a disastrous world due to a small warming, despite all the world geohistorical and historical data showing that warming is great and cooling is terrible for most life forms on this planet, including most especially humans.
humans are the ones that can most readily and successfully adapt.
Humans adapt, sure, but cooling is vastly more harmful than warming, not just due to humans freezing to death, but because of the immense effects on agricultural production of a cooling climate. Cooling directly reduces agriculture production due to lower temps (by reducing the length of growing seasons), but cooling is always accompanied by drying which has an even bigger impact on agricultural production and ultimately causes outright crop failures.
Most of the worst famines in human history occurred during cooling climates, like the Little Ice Age most recently.
It hit 80 F today here in central Wokeachusetts- first time since early last October. I don’t see/hear anyone complaining. I’m enjoying my garden and forest, walking around wearing nothing but a loincloth, like Tarzan. I feel an urgent desire to do that loud call that Tarzan did while pounding my chest like a gorilla. 🙂
Same here in Southern Ontario – great weather – 10 bags of yard waste out front, not much chance of ‘climate change ™” hurting plant productivity!
But I’m sure the brain trust, like Biden and Trudeau, will create a new tax or regulation to kill that.
Some well connected politicians are getting very rich off of unreliables. MONEY! (follow it)
I’m now aware of a single politician in Wokeachusetts who is against the climate lunacy. I’ve been looking but so far no luck.
Can’t do math. Can’t read graphs.
too stupid to read this site
Meanwhile, In China, where energy use really matters:
Thermal: 5,108 billion kWh 71%
Hydro: 980 billion kWh 14%
Wind: 642 billion kWh 9%
Solar: 359 billion kWh 5%
Nuclear: 100 billion kWh 1%
But that is only electricity. It is a fraction of their energy consumption.
Globally, wind and solar contributed 1.7% of primary energy.
Wind and solar are carbon intensive. Making them requires an enormous amount of fossil fuel and they would need operating lives in excess of 200 years to recover. This fact is gradually becoming obvious to more people but not woke journalists who need calculators to add 3+9. Anything beyond the number of fingers is beyond them.
Here is China’s primary energy mix.
Wind and solar.. you almost need a magnifying glass
The climate on this wet rock has always been changing, sometimes hotter and sometimes colder. The dingleberries who are all worked up about this should shut off their air conditioners and heaters, give up their motor vehicles and go live in a hole in the ground somewhere.
I failed to get beyond “The fingerprints of climate change…”
6th form nonsense.
I get a big kick out of climastrologists who claim to know how much warming is natural and how much man made. I do not buy it. If it were cooling we would not know it due to UHI effect and tampering with the real data.
Fingerprints may have been on the papers the adjusters changed. But this is the digital age.
I’m still waiting for the climate “scientists” to find the hotspot!
They don’t seem to think economics 101 works anymore. Even the USSR and CCP eventually had to bow to it. Only Green ideologues would make a forecast of the end for something (because they don’t like it) while the trend is accelerating upwards on galloping demand.
And where is this galloping demand coming from? Dear Ms Reeve, Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Deputy Director, it is coming from the failure and collapse of inoperable Green Energy Plans! You know it but are in classical psychological denial. New World Order governments know it but they get to blame it on a Russian invasion and avoid torches and pitchforks. They faced the energy crisis they created with renewables that proved to not work (“the 30% Wall” an inflection in exponential runaway costs – ‘a tipping point’ if you will!). We won’t even pile on the demise of the ev cars and trucks
Trust me, after this narrow escape, they will avoid renewables like the plague that it is! They prefer a a nice safe perennial world war. You, Ms Reeve, along with hundreds of millions more with such hybrid, unreal jobs, teaching positions, fantasy consultants, institutes, and the like are only months away from full redundancy (a new term will be necessary for this wreckage).
“They don’t seem to think economics 101 works anymore. Even the USSR and CCP eventually had to bow to it”
Deng Shao Ping said “I don’t care what color the cat is if it catches mice”.
“They don’t seem to think economics 101 works anymore.” That’s why the morons came up with MMT, Modern Monetary Theory.
They have turned economics inside out and bastardized common sense.
Story Tip
https://www.sciencealert.com/a-vast-untapped-source-of-lithium-has-just-been-found-in-the-us
All they need to do is figure out how to get the Lithium out of the fracking wastewater without telling the Biden regime or St Greta…
They try to get the lithium out of the Marcellus without getting the oil. Whoever can do that will get a prize from the IPCC.
This is pitiful, no science backing up the CAGW narrative, only doom and gloom. This is all they have:
”Over 97 per cent of Australia’s trading partners have set net zero targets,” the papers say.”
Ninety seven percent have set net zero targets. Nothing could be more meaningless. So what if someone agreed to something? What are their actions? How much less CO2 are they emitting? How much has the global CO2 concentration gone down? How much has the average global temperature gone down because of what they agreed to?
The answers are that almost no one is doing anything.Those that have are spending boat loads of money and making their countries worse off. Global CO2 emissions continue to rise. Average global temperature haven’t decreased. This is insane.
I looked up ABC’s climate reporter Jess Davis’ climate credentials. There aren’t any.
Another of her recent stories was titled ‘Humanity has opened the gates to hell’ in reference to global warming. Oh dear.
Another was ‘Even tho a cold April in Australia, record heat elsewhere.’—despite a late April frost destroying the emerging wine crop in Europe and also the about to be harvested wine crop in Argentina. She needed to be a bit more specific about elsewhere.
Raining.. (again!) and not at all warm in the Hunter Valley at the moment. 🙁
Their ABC is entirely funded by government. Canberra is probably worse than Washington as an echo chamber for the leeches who infest easy money, government gifted jobs.
As usual, articles like this generate a great deal of merriment, particularly where it claims that as the world commits to Net Zero, fossil fuel demand will start to decline. Except there’s one not-so-little reality it overlooks: who’s really committing to Net Zero other than the environmental dreamers? It’s certainly not the thousands of hangers-on and freeloaders who fly to the useless climate conferences like the COPs unless they’re secretly doing so on battery-powered aircraft. Nor is maybe 90% of the rest of the world’s population who have consistently indicated in surveys that climate action is always at or near the bottom of their priorities list. It’s only the wishful thinkers that believe in anything as unattainable as Net Zero.
Warning! Warning! Greenouts!!!
Project delays, mothballing worsen energy reliability (msn.com)
Not to worry the climate changers have everything under control-
‘What happened to the world?’: South Australia ‘bailing’ on gas production (msn.com)
Previously from those who actually produce stuff-
‘Bizarre’ and unbelievable: Gas-rich Australia’s looming need for LNG imports draws fire – ABC News
Time to check the emergency petrol genny again.
Even though it is the middle of the day, SA is still running its electricity supply on 62% gas, and 5 % DIESEL. Also importing as much as solar is providing.
If they get rid of gas.. they will be in near permanent black-out stage. !
With a NSW interconnect they will become a parasite to the NSW grid… it should never be built !
Cognitive dissonance is alive and well with the green carbonistas. Not only will hydrocarbons continue to power the world, but we are also seeing the simultaneous demise of the net-zero fantasy.
Big wind is in trouble
EV’s are not selling. global glut. Car makers walking away from their electric car futures
Countries increasingly re-thinking and turning away from ‘nut-zero’
Elections coming up in EU, USA, Canada, that will see further abolishment of the CAGW energy madness of targets, industrial c02 mandates, incentives, subsidies etc. Should Trump win I expect entire green energy bureaucracies to be abolished.
Increasing focus and discussion on nuclear
The markets and physics are the realities. Throw new political administrations that are opposed to the ideological green catastrophist capitalist destroying globalist de-growth cabals into the mix. That is not good news for the CAGW FF hating luvvies. It’s a potent cocktail of reality that will, if not destroy the climate change/renewable industry, will severely limit the global expansion of it.
EV’s are not selling.
Shhhhhh…….
Chinese EV Companies Are Falling Behind On Their Bills (insideevs.com)
China needs the UN to back them on the transition to BEVs. All governments (except China) must ban ICE vehicles from their roads to reduce carbon pollution.
What is China going to do with all the BEV manufacturing capacity they have built if they do not get UN support on this.
There needs to be a treaty on BEVs and lots of signatories.
Any elected legislators signing onto such a treaty would find themselves out of office very quickly.
Harold the Chemist says:
FOSSIL FUELS ARE FOREVER!
All the heavy industries and all the heavy transports will always use large amounts of fossil fuels.
All the emergency vehicles such as firetrucks will always fossil fuels. Cars, light trucks, and military vehicles and aircraft will always use fossil fuels. Emergency power generating systems such those in hospitals, high-rise buildings and fire stations, and at airports will always use fossil fuels.
The chemical process industries will always use vast quantities of fossils fuels to manufacture a wide range of many useful products such as nylon and polyester fibers, plastics and paint. Natural gas is used in the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers.
Lastly, fossils fuels will be used always in power plants to generate electricity, the greatest invention of man.
I will quit for now. You all got the picture?
If you are not for Net Zero by some date…the earlier date…..the more virtuous…..then you are a bad person. Just about every politician in the world has taken the pledge becuz they don’t want to be described as bad…and not virtuous.
Net zero is nonsense. Ain’t ever going to happen.
Like Trump, Peter Dutton has thrown a spanner into the Labor’s “renewables” band wagon.
Sovereign risk is now a clear and present danger for investors relying on mandated theft directly from consumers or through government coffers. Dutton’s preliminary investigation into nuclear power stations is already making “renewable”investors think hard,
No one wants to invest in weather dependent generators in Australia anymore because even the paltry RET ends in 2030. I calculate that it would need a 10-fold increase for the current $46/MWh to make investment in battery firmed WDGs economically viable.
So far, the WDG promoters have ridden on the back of existing dispatchable generators but as the penetration increases past 30% they are now pushing on a piece of string and cannot deliver more by increasing capacity. All that is happening is a huge lunchtime glut that is not going to go down well with rooftop owners when they are paying to export. That forces them into buying batteries so the ever increasing cost of the grid gets spread across an ever reducing number of consumers.
Australia is the most advanced crash test dummy for an isolated grid. Australia can lean on China for all manufactured goods but not for power supply. And actually building stuff in Australia is a very slow process.
But…but…we’ve got Snowy2 remember-
Expert claims Snowy Hydro 2.0 project will never produce power (msn.com)
Why is it always 97%?
On average 3% are always on sick leave. You don’t want more proxies and interpolation do you?.
There’s enough as it is!
What concerns me is peoples belief either in renewable energy that will totally replace carbon based fuels, or in the ongoing viability of carbon based fuels in a depleting global resources.
Wake up all!
There is a crisis, and its not to do with climate, its to do with the spiralling prices of fossil fuels, and the complete inability of renewable sources to replace them.
We have wasted 20 years on windmills instead of nuclear power stations.
‘Recoverable fossil fuels’ – an interesting term.
Aren’t we now recovering fossil fuels that were previously unrecoverable?
A good thought to keep in mind is: all resources are scarce but free market capitalism turns scarcity into abundance.
The infinite resource is the Human resource that achieves the above.