I live in Fort Lauderale, Florida and this year’s seasonal tropical hurricane forecasts, from multiple sources, are the most dire and frightening I’ve seen, perhaps ever made.
This is coming from multiple sources.
I believe the first out to the gate was Weatherbell, (Joe Bastardi) with their “Hurricane Season From Hell” forecast in December of last year.
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look
- A hurricane season from hell is shaping up for 2024.
- Very high levels of activity should be prepared for in areas that were essentially left untouched in 2023.
- The El Niño will reverse to a La Niña, while the Atlantic basin will be ideal for development.
- Very warm water in the northeastern Pacific is likely to mean the kind of pattern over North America that was similar to 2005, 2017, and 2020.
- This invited storms to reach the U.S.
Basin Forecast
Names Storms 25-30
Hurricanes 14-16
Major Hurricanes 6-8
Total ACE 200-240Impact Forecast
Named storm Impacts 10-14
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look
Hurricane Impacts 5-8
Major Hurricane Impacts 3-5
Then last week Colorado State University issued their annual seasonal forecast
Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity
Forecast Parameters CSU Forecast for 2024* Average for 1991-2020 Named Storms 23 14.4 Named Storm Days 115 69.4 Hurricanes 11 7.2 Hurricane Days 45 27.0 Major Hurricanes 5 3.2 Major Hurricane Days 13 7.4 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)+ 210 123 ACE West of 60 degrees longitude 125 73 https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
bug-out bag
noun
variants or less commonly bugout bag
plural bug-out bags also bugout bags
: a bag packed with survival supplies (such as food, water, medications, and flashlights) and kept ready for use in case of an emergency that requires rapid evacuation : GO BAG
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bug-out%20bag
Time to prepare.
And in an election year, any major hurricane hit, which if it does occur, will likely be right before the election, will be used in a hyperbolic pressure campaign like we’ve never seen, in order to elect Biden and Democrats as the party to save us all from catastrophic climate change.
To this day, I believe that Superstorm Sandy and the insane media misrepresentations of its causes (a large storm making landfall at King Tide), effects, and the subsequent media manipulation of disaster aid debates, were instrumental in the reelection of Barack Obama in 2012.
Credit to someone who makes a forecast in writing that they will be called on later. I’ll pay attention.
It’s worse than we thought!
More clicks if your header has a “worst ever” flavor to it…
“It’s worse than we thought!”
Maybe this year, but not necessarily next year or the year after. In other words, there is no evidence of a trend to higher hurricane numbers. The quote from the aricle below points out high hurricane activity in 2005 (Katrina, for one) and then 2017, but what should be noted is that from 2005 until 2017, no major hurricanes made landfall in the United States. That’s 12 years. So if we have increased hurricanes this year, don’t let the climate alarmists get away with claimintg it’s a trend because of human-caused global warming/climate change, which is just exactly what they will do.
From the article: “Very warm water in the northeastern Pacific is likely to mean the kind of pattern over North America that was similar to 2005, 2017, and 2020.
This invited storms to reach the U.S.”
Note that Joe Bastardi’s forecasts are based on past weather history, which seems to be a good way to forecast future weather. If certain types of weather prevailed during certain types of atmospheric conditions, then if those same atmospheric conditions appear again, the same type of weather that happened in the past, will happen again. Makes sense to me.
Floridians who are not stupid are well aware every year to be prepared for a hurricane during hurricane season (June through November). Even if just one single hurricane makes landfall, and that happens to be where you are, it is a catastrophe for you and your neighbors. The same awareness should apply to all other Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean coastal states from Texas to Maine.
These tropical cyclone activity predictions in the Atlantic have a very spotty success record, sometime proving reasonably accurate, and sometimes not. Getting people all worked up over them is not useful. Reminding people in coastal areas to be prepared is useful.
Just one example: the CSU forecasters issued their 2022 forecast in December 2021 predicting (within limits of certainty) a more or less average tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Things looked great for us in South Florida up until the last week of September, when Hurricane Ian made landfall and resulted in the most lethal and damaging hurricane in decades (the most expensive all time in recovery costs). The eyewall came within a few miles of my house. That was a horrible, indeed catastrophic year for hurricanes for me and my neighbors.
Bastardi was amazingly prescient on Ian, issuing an extreme warning to DeSantis to take notice of the high likelihood of a major hurricane impacting Florida, and Ian formed shortly thereafter.
https://www.cfact.org/2022/09/21/41023/
Like all forecasting of weather, the shorter the prediction timeframe the greater the accuracy, on average, but there are exceptions even to that truism. Even very short term predictions, however, can be off by a lot because of particular conditions over a very short period of time.
A slight change in the steering currents can cause a storm moving northward off the Florida Gulf coast or Atlantic coast to suddenly veer onshore far from where it was predicted to make landfall, which is what happened with the very damaging Hurricane Charlie in 2004. Or if the steering low and high pressure systems cause a storm to either speed up or slow down, it can make a huge difference in the amount of damage it does either due to wind or precipitation.
With Ian, the storm was moving fairly rapidly initially in the Gulf, which tends to inhibit the intensity of the storm, but as it approached Florida it slowed way down and consequently significantly increased in intensity. It’s track also jogged eastward, with initial track forecasts had it heading towards Tampa Bay, but then made landfall in Fort Myers Beach about 90 miles south of Tampa Bay. Similarly, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 slowed way down as it approached the Texas Gulf Coast, and as a result packed enormous amounts of rainfall well distant from the coastline (as much as 50 inches of rainfall, which nobody could realistically have forecast).
Cyclone predictors can sometimes get it right on … and at other times, they can be embarrassed. Which is why the NWS and NHC always caveat the heck out of storm predictions, showing “cones of probability” which represent the statistical probability of any given storm center’s track, along with uncertainty of speed of movement, and intensity.
The primary source of damage from Ian was the storm surge … as high as 18 ft in some locations around Ft Myers. Wind damage was nowhere near as severe. In contrast Irma, which also impacted SW Florida, in 2017, produced almost no storm surge despite forecasts of 10 ft to 15 ft. Mandatory evacuations were imposed but, ironically, the path of the hurricane actually pulled water away from Ft Myers. So, yes, small changes in a hurricane’s path and the timing of landfall with respect to high tide can make a huge difference in the damage they cause. No one can predict that precisely.
Here’s a table for the last 20+ years. The Delta (𝜟) columns denote how far the prediction was from the observed.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
It would have been nice if they added a row for “totals”.
Actually, I think “Average” would be more interesting.
The data stubbornly shows no trend. But the general public doesn’t know that so it’s safe to say…
“Hurricane Season from Hell Predicted”
Yes, but don’t forget there is an identity politik side to the climate crisis.
“Hurricanes are intensifying more rapidly…
Hurricanes are more frequently escalating quickly, and the places they destroy may be those disadvantaged by racist housing policy…”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/07/hurricane-strength-global-warming-intensification
According to NOAA, 2023 ranked 4rth – for most named storms.
That’s where they are, now.
Like the recent earthquake in New Jersey and the total eclipse today, surely (don’t call me that) the predicted season ‘ti’s but a sign of the impending and much anticipated ‘pocalypse.
Plan accordingly. Make your peace the Mother Gaia.
Thankfully Joe Bastardi doesn’t base his predictions on trends. He matches current atmospheric and oceanographic conditions to past conditions and the weather that resulted.
The Dems aren’t quite so Dim, Never let a good disaster go to waste
Especially when you can blame Republicans
If the Republicans play they cards right they can use the 2024 hurricane season as a report card on Joe Biden’s green new deal policies.
The deadliest hurricane in the last 50 years is this media hurricane which has been making yearly landfall since 2016. The cost to rebuild will eventually, if we succeed in rebuilding, be in the trillions. The good news is that more and more people are taking precautions to limit personal damage.
Charles, I will be in Ft. Lauderdale in July for vacation, please arrange some tranquility for then. Thank you. By the way, you should add a pistol and extra clips, pre-paid visa card, cash, and water purification tablets to your bugout bag. I hope nobody suffers too much in the event of landfall hurricanes, especially stronger ones, but, you know, this is good news to a segment of our society: cowabunga dude, surf’s up!
Charles can probably arrange a little tranquility during your upcoming vacation.
However, I expect it would be wise to be far away in August and September!
Let me know if you want to have lunch.
Excellent idea! Maybe with a view of a hurricane? My schedule is firming up.
Hey guys, you figure it out, plus if invite me along to CR’s favorite next door Tiki Bar, I will buy for all three.
Population growth in the East Coast States has been increasing, with many of the new arrivals never having experienced hurricanes. Expect serious consequences if that Hurrican Fron Hell (HFH) does happen. (my WAG, is no it won’t)
My bug-out-bag is a bushel size apple (40 lbs) box – I call it a “spare” box — and it stays in the back of my truck. A full tank of gas is a great idea.
That said, East Coast highways will clog-up fast, so residents should figure out how to stay in place with water, food, lights — and a “safe” room.
I imagine we will be hearing lots of hurricane-related EV horror stories this hurricane season.
I’m thinking of the long evacuation that took place in Texas during Hurricane Harvey, where the Interstates looked like parking lots at times. An EV owner would be pretty much screwed in a situation like that.
Joe Bastardi is someone i trust for predictions
He really blew it predicting a dry California winter a few months later. You win some you lose some.
Joe Bastardi
2023 Hurricane Forecast
Atlantic Basin
Named Storms: 10-14
Hurricanes: 5-7
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
April Hurricane Impact Forecast (weatherbell.com)
Actual 2023 Results
20 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
Average Year
10 named storms
6 hurricanes
2.5 major hurricanes
Bastardi’s 2023 forecast was no better than a novice predicting the long term average numbers
The actual results were 2x more tropical storms than usual, far more than Bastardi predicted.
In adition to forecasts, usually with no value, Bastardi is a crazy Volcano Nutter and El Nino Nutter.
Bastardi believes all global warming is caused by underseas volcanoes and vents, for which he has no data.
The alleged deep ocean heat is released to the atmosphere by El Ninos.
He ignores La Ninas and the long term temperature neutral trend of the ENSO cycle.
If El Ninos were really the climate change control knob and cause of global warming after 1975, which is silly, then how did the El Ninos cause global cooling from 1940 to 1975.
Can El Ninos do everything?
Joe Bastardi is, by far, the worst non climate scientist conservative writer on climate issues that I have discovered in 26 years of climate and energy reading.
Curious choice of 2023 to harpoon Joe B. Except for named storms being more he was dead on with the hurricane number and majors. Here are two things wrong with this criticism, one of which, if I give a smart fellow like you a minute to think, will see it yourself.
The second one, named storms – these weaker, inclusive ‘envelopes’ are harder to foresee, but fortunately less important than the main show. Moreover, named storms are easier to fiddle, and during the 14 year drought in landfalling canes after Katrina, desperate ‘climate-wroughters’ named every waterspout and sun shower they could. It was all they had.
I clearly explained that a 2023 forecast of an average year by a novice would have been just as accurate as Bastardi’s “professional” prediction.
In addition, I see zero value in a prediction of the number of hurricanes each year, even if correct..
The pre-hurricane season forecast is often wrong, does not predict where the hurricane will make landfall, or when. In my opinion such a pre-season forecast is worthless.
I wonder if, in the long term, if Bastardi’s pre-season predictions were more accurate, as a group, than simply predicting an average hurricane season year every year.
It would be a lot of work to do an analysis.
How would I be sure Bastardi did not change his archive of pre-season forecasts on his website to look better?
Also, there are multiple predictions each year, with some revisions during the hurricane season. It’s not really a prediction if it was revised DURING the hurricane season.
RG really hates it when someone gets more attention than he does.
And still the rabid data denial of the El Nino warming over the last 45 years.
Denial of the fact that ocean seismic activity is a far better match to El Nino and warming than CO2 is.
He probably even still thing CO2 causes warming (despite never having any evidence)…
And still hasn’t come to grip with the fact that the atmosphere has no isotopic evidence of fossil fuel CO2.
In my opinion, anything RG says is basically worthless.
He is the worst non-scientist AGW-cult-lukewarmer ranter on climate issues that I have ever seen.
“He (RG) is the worst non-scientist AGW-cult-lukewarmer ranter on climate issues that I have ever seen.”
Thank You
If you, an El Nino Nutter, Underseas Volcano Nutter, AGW is Fake Nutter, CO2 Does Nothing Nutter and There is No Greenhouse Nutter like you agreed with ANYTHING I wrote, then I would be worried.
I don’t want the conservative Nutters or the Leftists on my side.
I am happy to agree with almost 100% of climate scientists since 1896 that there is a greenhouse effect and manmade CO2 emissions add to it … rather than your science denying Nutter beliefs
But I go a step further than most conservatives. based on observations and science
CO2 is a week greenhouse gas above 420 ppm, and I believe a doubling should be desired, rather than feared
More CO2 means greening of our planet, more food and warmer winter nights.
We love the warmer winters in SE Michigan where total snow shoveling last winter was for 10 minutes one time … and only because the village snow plow blocked the foot of our driveway where it meets the road.
From late 2022 to early 2024 was the best climate I have ever experienced in Michigan since I moved here from New York the late 1970s.
Last summer was unusually cool with an unusual amount of rain. Never had to water the lawn.
We celebrate CO2 and whatever global warming it caused. And we want a lot more.
Please provide your address, junkyard attack dog BeNasty2000, so I can mail you a giant rawhide bone to chew on, rather than biting my ankles, as you always do. And say “hi” to Mrs. Nutter.
Richard’s observation of average climatology doing just as well was dead on. Your visceral hatred blinds you.
“Bastardi is a crazy Volcano Nutter and El Nino Nutter.”
Talk about visceral !!
And no, I don’t hate clowns. !!
Mr. Rotter: If Mr. Greene could make a simple observation, he would not draw the mockery (visceral hatred? I don’t think Mr. W made a hateful remark at all) he so richly deserves. Greene made the observation as an aside in an atttack on Mr. Bastardi that had more visceral hatred than Taylor Swift has glitter. Further, he attacks a guy who makes predictions every year, for staying close to the average for one year, struck me as a cherry pick, how about you? Did you miss Mr. Greene’s post where he said he just comes here to gaslight commenters? Has Mr. W ever gone there??!!
Defend him as you like, but expect some blowback on it, Mr. Greene is one of your worst customers.
“Can El Ninos do everything?”
No, that would be carbon dioxide, remember?
Hurricane season is a lot like the stock market. Nobody knows anything, but many make wild predictions. Most of them are wrong.
I predict the stock market average will go up, unless it goes down.
I predict RG will make another totally meritless attention-seeking rant in the very near future.
Just stop it.
Hear, hear. Let’s stick to using objective data and cut out the personal attacks.
BeNasty2000 needs to be
sedated. This is his theme song:
Ramones – I Wanna Be Sedated (Official Music Video) (youtube.com)
Story tip – Electric vehicles: the dogs don’t like it – American Thinker
Great article. Clever too. Read it this morning and immediately added it to my blog’s daily recommended reading list.
Predictions of next season being the “worst ever” or “best ever” will come true sooner or later…with fame, adulation, and paid speaking engagements for the correct prognosticator.
Story Tip====>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/climate/global-warming-clouds-solar-geoengineering.html
https://petersweden.substack.com/p/unreal-they-revealed-secret-geo-engineering
Yes, an active season — but nothing we haven’t seen before. We lived on our sailboat in PR through an active/very active season (a bit worrisome, but not terrifying).
Just over a 50/50 chance (62%) of one major hurricane land-falling along the US coastline…. somewhere.
That’s not so scary, lots of historical precedents. Worse for the Caribbean nations.
Any land-falling hurricane is bad for the area affected — major hurricanes are worse. We have perplexingly chosen to build mega-cities at sea level in harm’s way…no so smart.
Hype-Hype-Hurrah! The Hurricane Hunters will not be bored, and weathermen will be busy “heroes” during the season.
It is now the dominoes stack up for the season.
I want a prediction of a category 6 hurricane for some low down scaremongering. Called Hurricane Armageddon. Or even a 7.
Caused by climate change, of course
I like Bastardi; forewarned is forearmed. If he’s right-look out. If he’s wrong-thank God. Scary part is that I don’t think he’s wrong.
There are two underlying reasons 2024 is of real concern here in Fort Lauderdale:
Go bag is ready and get away car will stay fully fueled to avoid panic buying. We live in a cat 5 resistant building, but after Wilma and Irma experiences formulated the rule to stay on 2 but leave on 3 if within cone of uncertainty 1.5 days out. Direct hit from 3 Wilma took the complex 18 months to recover from. Where we were, big 5 Irma was ‘only’ a 2. All the other east facing units on our floor were damaged—two severely—but because of the funky curved building shape our unit was fine since we are ‘tucked in’.
Rud ==> I live in nearly the Garden of Eden: No hurricanes, no tornadoes, no poisonous snakes, no severe winters….and we too keep Go Bag in the family car, gas tank never below 3/4s. Couple of blankets and rain gear. Just common sense every where.
Only place I never prepared to ‘go from’ was the Wisconsin dairy farm. We keep plenty of canned/dry food in the pantry, and several cords of firewood in the cellar for the wood burning stove/fireplace in the family room and the wood burning supplemental ‘furnace’ in the cellar plumbed into the main furnace plenum. Big diesel (500 gal) and gasoline (80 gal) storage in the equipment shed. Had a hand pump well into the first aquifer dug just outside the kitchen entrance for emergency potable water if power to the main second aquifer well went out—just less sweet water.
Cruel and unusual punishment to tell us about a Garden of Eden and not tel us where it is.
I had relatives who used to describe California that way many decades ago, but CA changed and they moved to other states.
Can’t we wish for a test hurricane on Long Island to qualify the 12 new wind turbines. Like a shakedown cruise.
They’re “resilient” energy dontcha know. /s
Hurricane Sandy was barely a Category 1 storm when it struck New Jersey. What made it particularly damaging was the unusual path of the eye, moving west into Atlantic City, with winds from due east hitting the New Jersey shore to the north of the eye. These winds had a long “fetch” over the open ocean to whip up a strong storm surge, which was channeled into Raritan Bay, and pushed water into rivers including the Raritan, Passaic, and Hudson rivers in the densely populated New York metro area.
Most hurricanes and tropical storms along the Atlantic coast, if they do not strike the Carolinas, will move north or northeast, with the eye staying over the open ocean, so that winds along the coast are from the northeast or north, so that the New York metro area is protected from storm surge by Long Island and southern New England.
While some commentators at the time tried to blame Sandy on “global warming”, there was actually an unusually cold anticyclone over the North Atlantic at the time, which steered the eye of Sandy westward into New Jersey. Some of this cold air was drawn into Sandy and caused heavy snow in West Virginia in late October.
It’s definitely possible that Sandy helped Obama to be re-elected a week later. Mitt Romney suspended his campaign after the storm, while then-Governor Chris Christie gave Obama a televised bear hug on the Jersey shore, hoping to get money from the Obama administration to clean up storm damage.
It’s not clear whether an active hurricane season in 2024 would help Biden get re-elected. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has done remarkably well in dealing with hurricane damage recently, including during his re-election year in 2022, and he is still in charge, and Louisiana and Texas also have Republican governors, who know they can’t expect any help from the Biden administration.
If I remember correctly, there was controversy over Sandy was a “hurricane” when it made landfall at all.
Why the classification mattered had to do with it being a Fed issue or a local issue. (In terms funding available?)
Ironically, dems are “praying” for destructive hurricanes.
Yes, Sandy was actually two very strong storms that combined over the Northeast, with Sandy coming up from the south and the Nor’easter coming down from the north and they met together. Either storm would have been notable on their own, but in combination they caused a lot of damage.
Joe and some other forecasters base their forecast on actual data and then “call them as they them”.
How many past hurricane forecast from the “Climate Crowd” have forecast horrible seasons that never materialized?
— “We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination… So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts… Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.” – Prof. Stephen Schneider, Stanford Professor of Climatology, lead author of many IPCC reports.
When the “Climate Crowd” is wrong, they hope people forget they were wrong and regret the video absence of massive damage. (They’ll have to hype what they have and/or replay Katrina footage.)
I think that if Joe is wrong, aside from him personally “missing it” this time, he’ll be more or as relieved as anyone living in the hurricane-prone areas.
“How many past hurricane forecast from the “Climate Crowd” have forecast horrible seasons that never materialized?”
If I recall correctly, the Climate Crowd was predicting horrible hurricane seasons wrongly for 12 years between the years 2005 and 2017, when no major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4, or 5) hit the U.S. mainland for those 12 years, yet every year of those years, we would get a dire hurricane forecast from the Climate Alarmists.
Their method is to forecast dire hurricane seasons every year and they’ll get one right every once and a while, and then they can claim they know what they are talking about, as if one out of 12 validates them.
I remember Joe Bastardi making a rather pessimistic forecast for last winter in Europe.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/29/veteran-meteorologist-joe-bastardi-we-got-a-cold-winter-coming-up-for-europe/
How did that go?
Real scientists apparently do not agree
Why aren’t more homes in Florida built out of concrete?