The Week That Was: 2024-03-02 (March 2, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.”—Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: All but 1 out of 17
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
SCOPE: A paper by Russian climate modelers is presented that discusses a possible technique for modeling the important El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and that emphasizes the failure of the global climate modeling enterprise to successfully model cloud formation and dissipation. A post on Climate Etc. discussed the latest IPCC hockey-stick and brings out the failure of clear standardization to assure quality control of proxy data. A post by Jim Steele addresses the failure of “ocean acidification” advocates to understand the organic processes in the formation of mollusks and corals. A German power plant engineer addresses the important distinction between grid forming electricity generating machines and grid following generating machines. The inability of the high-tech industry to succeed in transportation is discussed. Also discussed is the failure of the EPA to recognize the difference between the air used in laboratory experiments on greenhouse gases and the atmosphere and its consequences.
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Russian Climate Model: Previous work by McKitrick and Christy, and others, has shown that all global climate models overestimate the warming of the atmosphere, but the model from the Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences comes the closest to the observed data from nature. The models have the designation of INMCM. Ron Clutz brings attention to the paper published by five of the scientists there describing model in which they attempt to simulate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is one of the vexing components of climate change and is unrelated to human activity. Clouds are the most vexing issue in attempting to simulate climate change. The abstract states:
“Advanced numerical climate models are known to exhibit biases in simulating some features of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a key mode of interannual climate variability. In this study we analyze how two fundamental features of observed ENSO – asymmetry between hot and cold states and phase-locking to the annual cycle – are reflected in two different versions of the INMCM Earth system model (state-of-the-art Earth system model participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). We identify the above ENSO features using the conventional empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis, which is applied to both observed and simulated upper ocean heat content (OHC) data in the tropical Pacific. We obtain that the observed tropical Pacific OHC variability is described well by two leading EOF-modes, which roughly reflect the fundamental recharge-discharge mechanism of ENSO. These modes exhibit strong seasonal cycles associated with ENSO phase locking while the revealed nonlinear dependencies between amplitudes of these cycles reflect ENSO asymmetry. We also assess and compare the predictability of observed and simulated ENSO based on linear inverse modelling. We find that the improved INMCM6 model has significant benefits in simulating described features of observed ENSO as compared with the previous INMCM5 model. The improvements of the INMCM6 model providing such benefits are discussed. We argue that proper cloud parameterization scheme is crucial for accurate simulation of ENSO dynamics with numerical climate models.” [Boldface added]
Clutz presents the discussion in the paper which states [references omitted]:
“In this study we have analyzed how two different versions of the INMCM model [44,45] (state-of-the-art Earth system model participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP) simulate some features of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is a key mode of the global climate. We identified the ENSO features via the EOF analysis applied to both observed and simulated upper ocean heat content (OHC) variability in the tropical Pacific. It was found that the observed tropical Pacific OHC variability is captured well by two leading modes (EOFs) which reflect the fundamental recharge-discharge mechanism of ENSO involving a recharge and discharge of OHC along the equator caused by a disequilibrium between zonal winds and zonal mean thermocline depth. These modes are phase-shifted and exhibit the strong seasonal cycles associated with ENSO phase locking. The inter-annual dependencies between amplitudes of the revealed ESNO seasonal cycles are strongly nonlinear which reflects the asymmetry between hot (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) states of observed ENSO. We found that the INMCM5 model (the previous version of the INMCM model from CMIP6) poorly reproduces the leading modes of observed ENSO and reflects neither the observed ENSO phase locking nor asymmetry. At the same time, the perspective INMCM6 model demonstrates significant improvement in simulating these key features of observed ENSO. The analysis of ENSO predictability based on linear inverse modeling indicates that the improved INMCM6 model reflects well the ENSO spring predictability barrier and therefore could potentially have an advantage in long range weather prediction as compared with the INMCM5.
Such benefits of the new version of the INMCM model (INMCM6) in simulating observed ENSO dynamics can be provided by using more relevant parametrization of sub-grid scale processes. Particularly, the difference in the amplitude of OHC anomaly associated with ENSO between INMCM5 and INMCM6 shown in Fig.2-3 [omitted here] can be explained mainly by the difference in cloud parameterization in these models. In short, in INMCM5 El-Nino event leads to increase of middle and low clouds over central and eastern Pacific that leads to cooling because of decrease in surface incoming shortwave radiation.
While decrease in low clouds and increase in high clouds in INMCM6 over El-Nino region during positive phase of ENSO lead to further upper ocean warming. This is consistent with the recent study which argued that erroneous cloud feedback arising from a dominant contribution of low-level clouds may lead to heat flux feedback bias in the tropical Pacific, which plays a key role in ENSO dynamics. Fast decrease in OHC in central Pacific after El-Nino maximum in INMCM6 can probably occur because of too shallow mixed layer in equatorial Pacific in the model, which leads to fast surface cooling after renewal of upwelling and further increase of Tradewinds. Summarizing the above we can conclude that proper cloud parameterization scheme is crucial for accurate simulation of observed ENSO with numerical climate models.
As presented by Clutz the Background on the INMCM6 states [references omitted]:
The INMCM60 model, like the previous INMCM48, consists of three major components: atmospheric dynamics, aerosol evolution, and ocean dynamics. The atmospheric component incorporates a land model including surface, vegetation, and soil. The oceanic component also encompasses a sea-ice evolution model. Both versions in the atmosphere have a spatial 2° × 1° longitude-by-latitude resolution and 21 vertical levels up to 10 hPa. In the ocean, the resolution is 1° × 0.5° and 40 levels.
The following changes have been introduced into the model compared to INMCM48.
Parameterization of clouds and large-scale condensation is identical to that described in, except that tuning parameters of this parameterization differ from any of the versions outlined in, being, however, closest to version 4. The main difference from it is that the cloud water flux rating boundary-layer clouds is estimated not only for reasons of boundary-layer turbulence development, but also from the condition of moist instability, which, under deep convection, results in fewer clouds in the boundary layer and more in the upper troposphere. The equilibrium sensitivity of such a version to a doubling of atmospheric СО2 is about 3.3 K.
The aerosol scheme has also been updated by including a change in the calculation of natural emissions of sulfate aerosol and wet scavenging, as well as the influence of aerosol concentration on the cloud droplet radius, i.e., the first indirect effect. Numerical values of the constants, however, were taken to be a little different from those used in. Additionally, the improved scheme of snow evolution taking into account refreezing and the calculation of the snow albedo were introduced to the model. The calculation of universal functions in the atmospheric boundary layer in stable stratification has also been changed: in the latest model version, such functions assume turbulence at even large gradient Richardson numbers.
This new modeling effort may be an advance in understanding the natural influences on climate, which far too frequently have been all but ignored while it is assumed that the predominant influence is from human emissions of carbon dioxide. But we will have to see what comes out of the highly politicized IPCC sausage factory. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Bias in Global Climate Models: Researcher and retired petrophysicist Andy May has begun a seven-part series on bias in global climate models which is being posted on WUWT. The first two parts of the series have been posted. TWTW will begin a review of the work when a few more parts of the series are posted. See links under Model Issues.
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Only the Data That Fits: An individual identified as Haakosk has a post on Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. discussing the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021 to 2023) and the comments on it by the Climate Intelligence group (CLINTEL) and the Clintel Foundation. Haakosk gives detailed criticism on the method in which the latest Hockey-stick was formed. He summarizes the issue with:
“A ‘hockey stick’ temperature graph has made a comeback in the latest IPCC report from 2021 (AR6), after being absent in the fourth and fifth reports.
Unlike the previous two reports which included multiple temperature estimates, AR6 relies on just one temperature estimate for the past 1000-2000 years, sparking criticism.
Moreover, this single estimate has itself been criticized. The perhaps most important issue relates to a method that incorrectly generates hockey stick temperature graphs from non-hockey stick data.
In general, the quality and amount of data that can tell us something about past temperatures quickly decline when we go further back in time. Based on the currently available data, it might therefore be impossible to know whether the global temperature of the past 1000-2000 years has a hockey stick shape or not.”
Haakosk presents CLINTEL’s objection to the 2021 hockey-stick and 2022 criticisms by Anchukaitis and Smerdon in Quaternary Science Reviews. The journal gives the Highlights as:
•Global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions provide context for recent trends and extremes, but substantial uncertainties persist after more than two decades of research
•The IPCC AR6 WG1 did not adequately convey uncertainties in reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperatures over the Common Era
•We review progress and extant challenges in reconstructing Common Era temperature variability and make recommendations on their interpretation and application
Haakosk goes through other details in the controversy until he brings up the objections by Stephen McIntyre, which have been discussed in previous TWTWs. The latest hockey stick is a product of the PAGES 2k Network. Haakosk states:
According to McIntyre, some of the tree ring chronologies included in PAGES 2k are incorrectly calculated:
It’s hard for a statistical methodology to be so bad as to be “wrong”. Mann’s principal components methodology was one seemingly unique example. PAGES2K’s Asian tree ring chronologies are another. It’s worse than anyone can imagine. [Emphasis added]
In a 2021 article, McIntyre writes about the Asian tree ring chronologies used by PAGES 2k. He writes that many chronologies were introduced without having been reviewed. The ones that made it into the latest PAGES 2k version were the ones that were the most hockey stick-shaped:
In a series of posts, McIntyre broke down the proxy data used by the PAGES group and showed only a few of the proxies originally considered were actually used in the final hockey-stick. For example, in the northern tropics only 41 proxies out of 125 proxies made the final report. (The 32% was more than the 28% of proxies that made it into the Jacoby and d’Arrigo report, which was used in Mr. Mann’s hockey stick [[discussed in the February 17 TWTW.] When McIntyre reviewed the missing proxies, it was clear they did not show a hockey stick trend.)
A major issue is standardization periods or control periods to ensure the different proxies are measuring the same thing the same way. Apparently, PAGES 2k did not use one, or if it did it did not record it. Unless the standardization period is well documented by all groups participating in providing proxy data in the forming of the hockey stick, there is no uniform quality control of the data. The errors involved are unknown and, perhaps, unknowable.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy, https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2022/TWTW%2012-31-22.pdf for some of TWTW’s previous comments on PAGES 2k, and https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379122001688 for the Anchukaitis and Smerdon paper
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Acidic Waters? From March 2009 to February 2013, NOAA was led by Jane Lubchenco who insisted that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause acidic waters, and acidic waters would threaten mollusks and coral reefs by thinning the shells of these animals. Ms. Lubchenco is Deputy Director for Climate and Environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Coral reefs have been around for about 500 million years and modern corals for about 60 million years. As shown by geoscientist Tom Gallagher and many others, today’s concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is quite low compared with the past 500 million years and the past 60 million years.
In his usual, low-key style, Jim Steele presents a clear explanation why increasing CO2 does not threaten coral reefs. The chemistry of bicarbonate ions is significantly different than the chemistry of carbonate ions. The description of any organic chemical processes involving bicarbonate ions and carbonate ions must include all the steps involved. The presentation includes two clear diagrams. Steele writes:
“Coral build reefs by producing limestone, or calcium carbonate. The great diversity of shell building mollusks, like clams and oysters, also build their shells out of calcium carbonate. So, scientists assumed that these organisms just pulled carbonate ions from the surrounding sea water and joined it with abundant calcium ions to make reefs and shells, a process referred to as “calcification”. Thus, many scientists then expressed their heart-felt concerns that more CO2 will reduce the ocean’s carbonate ions and thus stress coral reef building and mollusk shell building.
Indeed, the increasing absorption of human produced carbon dioxide by the oceans can very slightly lower pH. In other words, more CO2 increases the oceans’ concentration of H+ ions [hydrogen ions]. It is also unassailable science that when CO2 enters the water, it interacts with water molecules to produce both H+ ions and bicarbonate ions. However, those H+ ions can then interact with carbonate ions and convert them to also form bicarbonate ions and reduce the pool of available carbonate ions. So, NOAA and hundreds of internet websites falsely told the world that “Ocean acidification slows the rate at which coral reefs generate calcium carbonate, thus slowing the growth of coral skeletons.”
However, climate scientists were apparently very ignorant regards the physiology of reef building and shell making. In order for charged ions to pass through an organism’s lipid membranes and enter its calcification chambers, a specialized channel or transporter is required. But for over a decade now, the search for carbonate transporters has failed to find any such transporters in any of these organisms. However, abundant bicarbonate transporters (green rectangles) [shown on the graph not here] have been found and deemed important for making reefs and shells.
From an evolutionary perspective, using the more abundant bi-carbonate ions is extremely logical. The higher amounts of carbon dioxide in the ancient atmosphere would lower ocean pH when mollusks and coral first evolved millions of years ago. That argues using scarcer carbonate ions would be very risky but using much more abundant bi-carbonate ions would supply the stability to evolve. Furthermore, all those organisms had long had the ability to absorb bicarbonate ions and transform it internally into carbonate ions for shell making and reef building by simply pumping out hydrogen ions. When CO2 enters the oceans, over 90% of it converts to bicarbonate ions whether the oceans’ pH is acidic at pH 6 or basic at pH 9. In contrast, carbonate ions virtually do not exist when ocean pH approaches pH 6.
The world can only hope that NOAA and all those alarmist websites will soon admit that improved science has revealed the error of their ways, and they will now come clean and tell the public that CO2 has not threatened reef builders and shell builders. In fact, they should report that more CO2 generates more bicarbonate ions which are the building blocks of shells and reefs.” [Boldface added]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pcmsc/coral-reef-facts#:~:text=Corals%20have%20been%20found%20in,the%20last%2060%20million%20years for the USGS Coral Reef Project.
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Affordable and Reliable: For many years, the goal of grid operators and government officials was to deliver affordable and reliable electricity to consumers. With government officials injecting green energy goals, the basic goal has been lost. Green energy sources do not deliver reliable power. Germany is further along the path of unreliability than the US. P. Gosselin has a post, “When green energy ideology clashes with the laws of Engineering and physics…” According to the post the grid is defined by massive rotating machines that have great inertia to establish the flow of current. The massive rotating machines are “grid forming.” Wind, solar and even natural gas turbines are just add-ons that do not provide the stability needed for a reliable grid. They are “grid following.” Gosselin’s post reads
“Manfred Haferburg, power plant engineer, explains the problems of the German power grid in connection with the green energy transition at online site Achgut. The result is a very informative article. It is not primarily about blackouts due to a lack of power.
The author begins by explaining three important terms: The n-1 criterion, reactive power and instantaneous reserve.
“Let’s translate all the technical gobbledygook. The experts at the power transmission grid operators have been ‘preoccupied’ with the topic for a long time, but politicians have not understood it because ‘it is a very complex issue’. And then comes the kicker: the German transmission grid can no longer cope with the ‘n-1 error’ in every case. This means that if, in a tense situation, one of the large transmission lines suddenly fails due to a lightning strike, long-wave conductor vibrations in high winds and snow, sabotage or a transformer/high-voltage switch fault, ‘the electricity grid could become unbalanced’ – in other words, it could collapse in a domino effect. This could result in a partial grid failure or, in the worst case, a blackout. This time it’s not me saying this, but the team leader for system behavior in the strategic grid planning department at TransnetBW. I wrote this on this site years ago and was berated for it.”
“Here, too, an attempt at layman’s language: the large rotating generators of the power plants are ‘grid-forming’ machines; due to their large mass, they keep the frequency of 50 Hz [60 Hz in North America] constant in the range of seconds. For our colleagues at the Federal Ministry of Economics and Federal Grid Agency, inertia is a physical property that ensures that power fluctuations are cushioned in a range in which the time for human intervention is too short. Wind turbines have only small masses and solar panels have no rotating parts at all, they are ‘grid-following’ with their inverters; this means that they are connected to the grid of the ‘grid-forming machines’ and do not have a stabilizing effect. Incidentally, gas-fired power plants tend to be ‘grid-following’ machines. The large power plant generators have also been responsible for maintaining the voltage in the grid through reactive power control.”
At the end of the article, Haferburg comes to the conclusion that we will continue to see coal-fired power plants in operation for a very long time.” [Boldface in original.]
Not only is the folly of net-zero based on poor science, but it is also becoming a very expensive dead-end for modern civilization. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US, Gosselin states the Google translator provides a reasonable translation of the German into English.
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High-Tech: The term high-tech was first used in the late 1950s and came into vogue in the late 1960s. Now, it generally refers to a group of industries and activities involved in the miniaturization of electronic circuits and the devices and software that were developed from such activities. With this definition, one can understand that high-tech firms may not transition well into other industries. For example, motor vehicles transport people and goods, and are not easily miniaturized although high-tech devices can be added to vehicles, improving them.
Apparently, Apple is finding this out because according to reports it is pulling out of the electrical vehicle market after spending about $1 billion over ten years. Also, according to reports, Mercedes-Benz has backtracked on its claim that it will build only electric vehicles starting in 2030 and Ford is pulling back after losing about $10 billion over last year and this year.
Perhaps, only government officials believe they can run huge losses year after year. The US deficit for FY 2023 was $1.70 trillion, an increase of $320 billion from the previous fiscal year. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles and https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/#:~:text=In%20FY%202023%20total%20government,from%20the%20previous%20fiscal%20year for US fiscal data.
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Experiments v. Observations: According to the EPA:
“Methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.”
Such “facts” are being used to justify many attacks on US agriculture, especially beef, dairy, pork, etc. However, the EPA fails to state that such facts do not apply to Earth’s atmosphere, but an artificial atmosphere from which the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor, has been removed.
As noted by AMO physicists van Wijngaarden and Happer in their studies of energy transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere (using the detailed HITRAN database), water vapor greatly reduces the effectiveness of methane, rendering its influence on temperatures minimal.
In another study, the same is shown for Nitrous Oxide, which comes from the use of artificial fertilizer, a great boon to agriculture and humanity. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer and for EPA claims about methane https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane#:~:text=Methane%20(CH4)%20is%20a,%2Dinfluenced)%20and%20natural%20sources
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Number of the Week: All but 1 out of 17. According to the California Department of Water Resources, there are 17 major water supply reservoirs in California. As of March 2, all but one are at 99% of historic average or above. The only one that is below is San Luis, which is at 85% of historic average for that date. San Luis reservoir is in Merced County, in the Central Valley. The two major reservoirs, Shasta and Oroville are at 114% and 132% of historic capacity for March 2. All the other reservoirs are above historic capacity except Castaic which is at 99% of historic capacity.
The California snowpack is 84% normal on March 1 and 74% of the April 1 average. The northern and central Sierra mountains are being hit by a major blizzard with an extensive part of I-80 closed. Snowfall estimates are up to 10 feet through Sunday night. The “permanent” California drought was not so permanent. See links under Changing Weather, https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain and https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action for water supply information.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 27, 2024
Video
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Methane and Climate
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, CO2 Coalition, 2020
Nitrous Oxide and Climate
By C. A. de Lange, J. D. Ferguson, W. Happer, and W. A. van Wijngaarden, Oct 28, 2022
IPCC’s New “Hockey Stick” Temperature Graph
By Haakonsk, Climate Etc. Mar 1, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The lack of standardization periods for the proxy data used by the UN IPCC reports may be one reason why the International Commission on Stratigraphy has ignored the demands of IPCC supporters.]
The Climate Cargo Cult
By Julius Sanks, WUWT, Feb 26, 2024
“Would that we had Dr Feynman’s ethical approach today! His thinking about the scientific process went beyond comparing theory with experiment. He was also well aware of other ways science could go wrong.”
Why Climate Scientists were Duped into Believing Rising CO2 will Harm Coral and Mollusks
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Feb 24. 2024
Net Zero an urgent threat to national security
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 1, 2024
Link to paper: The Music Stops: Net Zero and national security
By Gwythian Prins, Gautam Kalghatgi, and Guy de la Bédoyère, Net Zero Watch, 2024
New Study: Greenland’s Ice Stream Flow Patterns Change Internally, ‘Spontaneously’ Within Centuries
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 1, 2024
Link to paper: Shear margins in upper half of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream were established two millennia ago
By Daniela Jansen, et al., Nature Communications, Feb 8, 2024
From abstract: “Our results contradict the assumption that the ice stream has been stable throughout the Holocene in its current form and show that upper NEGIS-type development of ice streaming, with distinct shear margins and no bed topography relationship, can be established on time scales of hundreds of years, which is a major challenge for realistic mass-balance and sea-level rise projections.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Human Tragedy and Market Failure: The Growing Cost of Climate Change
By Rev. Mitch Hescox, Real Clear Energy, Feb 23, 2024
“NOAA’s Adam Smith wrote in a recent blog: ‘In a broader context, the total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters over the last 5 years (2019-2023) is $603.1 billion, with a 5-year annual cost average of $120.6 billion, the latter of which is more than double the 44-year inflation-adjusted average yearly cost.’”
[SEPP Comment: As shown by Roger Pielke, Jr., and others, there is no evidence that US storms are becoming more frequent or severe. Thus, the reverend is claiming market failure where the real issue is government failure, the lack of scientific integrity.]
“The climate crisis is not gender neutral”, says WMO’s Celeste Saulo
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 25, 2024
“’In a keynote address at the launch of the International Gender Champions Climate Impact Group, Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the WMO, stated that women and men are affected differently by weather and climate, and therefore need gender-sensitive information and services.’”
[SEPP Comment: The World Meteorological Organization has spoken; nature is not gender neutral.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Emergency atmospheric geoengineering wouldn’t save the oceans
By Staff Writers for AGU News, Washington DC (SPX,) Mar 01, 2024
Flawed Emergency Intervention: Slow Ocean Response to Abrupt Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
By Daniel Pflüge, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 29, 2024
From abstract: “Given the possibility of irreversible, anthropogenic changes in the climate system, technologies such as solar radiation management (SRM) are sometimes framed as possible emergency interventions. However, little knowledge exists on the efficacy of such deployments. To fill in this gap, we perform Community Earth System Model 2 simulations of an intense warming scenario on which we impose gradual early-century SRM or rapid late-century cooling (an emergency intervention), both realized via stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI).”
Drastic and Irreversible Climate Geoengineering Worries Scientists
An American company is already sending balloons filled with sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. NASA is considering flying ice into the atmosphere.
By Katie Spence, The Epoch Times, Mar 1, 2024
Link to article from NOAA and NASA employees: Considering intentional stratospheric dehydration for climate benefits
By Joshua Schwarz et al., AAAS Science Advances, Feb 28, 2024
Scientists say dehydrating the stratosphere could be plausible option to combat climate change
By Sascha Pare, Live Science, Feb 28, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
A new study explores the possibility of removing water from the air before it enters the stratosphere, where water vapor acts as a greenhouse gas, to mitigate the effects of climate change.
[SEPP Comment: Ever hear of the tropopause, where water freezes out?]
Climate change found to be reducing fish weight
Press Release University of Tokyo, Feb 28, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Fish weight reduction in response to intra- and interspecies competition under climate change
By Zhen Lin, Shin-ichi Ito, Fish and Fisheries, Feb 21, 2024
From abstract: Our analyses indicate that stronger stratifications in the surface layers during the 2010s potentially reduced the nutrient supply from the subsurface to the surface layers. This limitation in food availability forced intra- and interspecies competition under a moderate increase in fish biomass.
[SEPP Comment: The issue may be from cyclical changes in ocean upwellings, not increasing atmospheric temperatures.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Cambridge University Climate Scientist Denounces “Climate Emergency” As “Noble Lie”
Dr. Mike Hulme says scientists and activists are exaggerating the threat
By Phoebe Smith, Public, blog, Feb 25, 2024 [H/t Climate Depot]
“Cambridge University climate scientist Mike Hulme disagrees. ‘Declaring a climate emergency has a chilling effect on politics,’ he tells Public. ‘It suggests there isn’t time for normal, necessary democratic process.’
Now, in his new book, Climate Change Isn’t Everything, Hulme strongly denounces ‘climatism,’ which he describes as the ‘unyielding belief that stopping climate change is the pre-eminent yardstick against which all policies must be measured.’”
Scientists Expose Major Problems With Climate Change Data
‘Climate activism has become the new religion of the 21st century—heretics are not welcome and not allowed to ask questions,’ said astrophysicist Willie Soon.
By Alex Newman, The Epoch Times, Feb 28, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Today’s Materialistic World Cannot Survive Without Crude Oil
By Ronald Stein, Cornwall Alliance, Feb 19, 2024
Better than life: the planetary edition
John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“Somewhere out there floats a rumor that humility is a positive thing. But it seems not to have penetrated the inner sanctum of climate alarmism, where they’re not just aiming to make better plants and better dirt and better humans to fight climate change. They really are getting serious about making a better planet.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Companies Backing Out Of ‘Climate 100’. Climate Doomsday No Longer Taken Seriously?
By AR Göhring Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 24, 2024
Seeking a Common Ground
The Validity Of Much Of Published Scientific Research Is Questionable (Part 2)
By Henry I. Miller, MS, MD and S. Stanley Young, PhD, ACSH, Feb 27, 2024
Apples, Oranges, and Normalized Hurricane Damage
An incredible data error in a paper celebrated by the IPCC offers a science integrity test for climate science
By Rober Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Feb 26, 2024
Credit where due: new data, new conclusions
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“The state of scientific debate on climate is discouraging, to be sure. But as Adam Smith once said, there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and the foundations of honesty and professionalism run deep in the free societies. So, we expect more of this kind of commendable conduct going forward.”
“Four Pillars of Civilization” Under Attack
By Peter St Onge, Cornwall Alliance, Feb 21, 2024
Model Issues
Top Climate Model Improved to Show ENSO Skill
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Feb 25, 2024
Link to: ENSO phase locking, asymmetry and predictability in the INMCM Earth system model
By Aleksei Seleznev, Andrei Gavrilov, Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey S. Gritsun, and Evgenii M. Volodin, Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, February 2024
Climate Model Bias 1: What is a Model?
By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 28, 2024
Climate Model Bias 2: Modeling Greenhouse Gases
By Andy May, WUWT, Mar 1, 2024
Measurement Issues — Surface
EXCLUSIVE: A Third of U.K. Met Office Temperature Stations May Be Wrong by Up to 5°C, FOI Reveals
By Cliff Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Mar 1, 2024
“Nearly one in three (29.2%) U.K. Met Office temperature measuring stations have an internationally defined margin of error of up to 5°C. Another 48.7% of the total 380 stations could produce errors up to 2°C, meaning nearly eight out of ten stations (77.9%) are producing ‘junk’ or ‘near junk’ readings of surface air temperatures.”
Met Office Temperature Network Is Junk
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 1, 2024
“It is time to establish a network of a small number of high-quality stations, and only use these to publish official temperature trends in future.
If they want to still use the old datasets, they should show the appropriate error bars, along with a warning that the margin of error is so great that they have no statistical significance at all.”
Real Climate Science
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 29, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/real-climate-science-3/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/real-climate-science-2/#gsc.tab=0
“NOAA and NASA temperature graphs aren’t useful for science, because the data has been altered.”
Six Degrees Of Data Tampering
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 1, 2024
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2024: +0.93 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, March 2, 2024
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Changing Weather
In Central Asia’s Brutal Winter, Fossil Fuels Trump Climate Politics
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Feb 26, 2024
Massive Area of Cold Air is Over the Pacific Northwest and It Not Going Away
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 1, 2024
“Extreme cold air has spread out of Alaska and over the Gulf of Alaska and the northeastern Pacific resulting in a massive field of thunderstorms and convective clouds.”
Powerful storm approaching California could dump 10 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada
By Tara Suiter, The Hill, Feb 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: On a small part of the mountains.]
After All the Media Hype, Wildfires Across Southern Europe Were Completely Normal in 2023
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 25, 2024
#Gettingworse: floods edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“For the period where they had actual observations, they found that North American and European precipitation and streamflow activity tended to trend in opposite directions, with western Europe, for example, tending to have less streamflow activity over time. And for the world as a whole, the combined flood index had no trend.”
Sixteen Degrees Warming At Spitzbergen
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 26, 2024
From December 1938 article: “…At Spitzbergen the warming since regular observations began in 1910 has been so remarkable that it is almost noticeable from year to year…”
[SEPP Comment: The warming works out to be 5.7°F per decade. Now a warming of about 0.25°F per decade is a climate emergency?]
Hottest Weather Ever
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 26, 2024
Changing Seas
Decadal to centennial variability in the North Atlantic
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
From the CO2 Science Archive:
New York State Sea Level Rise: Fantasy as Law
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 29, 2024
“Written comments on the proposed rule may be submitted until 5 p.m. on April 29, 2024. Comments and requests for further information can be sent by mail to Mark Lowery, NYS DEC Office of Climate Change, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233-1030 or emailed to climate.regs@dec.ny.gov.”
Another Canary? Not.
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 26, 2024
“So the article is correct in one regard. Measured sea level is indeed rising fast in Eureka … but curiously, the next two tide stations to the north, Crescent City California and Port Orford Oregon, show falling sea levels.”
“The NOAA tide gauge is located, not on solid ground, not even on mainland ground, but on an offshore barrier spit made of … sand.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Big Asian Chill Pushes Arctic Ice Over 15 Wadhams
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Feb 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: How many of those freezing in Asia are worried about global warming?]
Happy Polar Bear Day!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2024
“27 February: 2023 marked 50 years of international cooperation to protect polar bears across the Arctic. Those efforts have been a conservation success story: from a population estimated at about 12,000 bears in the late 1960s, numbers have almost tripled, to just over 32,000 in 2023.
Despite this dramatic increase in polar bear populations, claims that their numbers are falling due to climate change still dominate most media coverage.”
[SEPP Comment: While the Arctic sea ice declined?]
The Elevation Of The Early Holocene’s W. Antarctic Ice Sheet Once Plunged 480 Meters In 200 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 26, 2024
Link to paper: Abrupt Holocene ice loss due to thinning and ungrounding in the Weddell Sea Embayment
By Mackenzie M. Grieman, et al., Nature Geoscience, Feb 8, 2024
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
No, BNN, Climate Change Will Not Leave 200 Million Africans Hungry by 2050
By Anthony Watts and H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Feb 226, 2024
The Media And I: Enhancing The Soil To Improve Farming
By Henry I. Miller, ACSH, Feb 22, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Animal Sanctuary Woes Not Caused by Climate Change
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 25, 2024
“Seldom does the NY Times cover any story that I can physically fact-check. In this case today, the object of the story is ‘close enough” for me to visit and take photos.”
Heads Up Media – Texas Wildfires Have Nothing to Do with Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Mar 1, 2024
Mind-blowing hogwash
John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“Journalists are meant to be skeptical. But not on trendy causes, at least not in recent times. Thus a piece in The Daily Digest starts out ‘It seems impossible but some people still deny climate change science’ and continues, beneath a caricature of Donald Trump:”
[SEPP Comment: Journalists cannot believe that some people have little use for either. How dare anyone disagree with us!]
The Des Moines Register Misses the Possible Benefits of Research Suggesting That Climate Change Will Cause Fewer Blizzards
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 29, 2024
Where Were You Before, Mr Warner?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Turning Down The Heatwaves
Video, John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Pointing out the misleading claims by World Weather Attribution on the 2021 US Pacific Northwest Heatwave. Since Ross McKitrick published his paper that a 1999 paper by Allen and Tett misunderstood the conditions of the Gauss-Markov Theorem, World Weather Attribution has toned down its precise probability calculations.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Tidbits
John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“So, they admit they misled us. Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blachard just told the British House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that transitioning to the fabled low-carbon economy will be ‘much more expensive than people imagine’. How expensive? He didn’t know and nor does anyone else. But really, crushingly. ‘The public does not believe, or has not been made to understand, that is going to be costly for them. It is going to be costly and that message has to be sent out.’”
Claim: Climate Change is Causing Cholera Outbreaks
By Eric Worral, WUWT, Feb 24, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Green Billionaires Press Hollywood to Promote Armageddon Climate Messages in Movies
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 27, 2024
Like whatever man
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“Speaking of not checking facts or logic, Bloomberg recently ran a column saying, and we are not making it up, ‘$266 Trillion in Climate Spending is a No-Brainer’.” To which we reply: Yes, only those with no brain could support it, because everything imaginable is wrong with that claim including that anyone even could spend $266 trillion. Quick question: What’s the US GDP? Right, and congratulations. It’s $25 trillion, more or less.
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Climate activists hit with felony charges for defacing US Constitution’s display case
The Department of Justice said the activists caused more than $50,000 in damages
By Joe Schoffstall, Fox News, Mar 1, 2024 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: 1666. Destruction Of Government Property — 18 U.S.C. § 1361: “The penalties for violations of this section are tied to the extent of the property damage. As amended on September 13, 1994, if the damage exceeds $100, the defendant is subject to a fine of up to $250,000, ten years imprisonment, or both…When property damage does not exceed $100, the offense is a misdemeanor punishable by a fine of up to $100,000, one year imprisonment, or both.]
Green Energy Billionaire: “Farmers affected could be compensated and find other places to farm”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Farm the North Sea? Will it interfere with the wind turbines there?]
Questioning European Green
Europe’s Consensus on Climate Is Crumbling
By Wolfgang Munchau, Climate Depot, Feb 29, 2024
“I expect that the hyperactive phase of this green agenda will end with the elections in June. Some of it might even go into reverse. I am even starting to doubt whether the EU will ever enforce the 2035 target for phasing out fossil-fuel-driven cars.”
Heat Pump Sales Slump In Europe
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2024
“I wonder why!!!”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Rupert Darwall: The Wheels Are Coming Off Net Zero
Video By Tom Nelson, Real Clear Energy, Feb 22, 2024
Electric Power vs. Green Goals
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Feb 17, 2024
Four Ways Net Zero Ruins Us
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Feb 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Latest in a four-part series with links to previous parts.]
Funding Issues
Cash-strapped London council starts crowdfunding drive to pay for green upgrades
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2024
The Political Games Continue
Conservatives must axe boiler tax to retain last shreds of electoral hope
Press release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 27, 2024
Litigation Issues
Major Energy Companies Ask SCOTUS To Intervene In Hawaii Climate Lawsuit
By Katelynn Richardson, Daily Caller, Feb 29, 2024
“In October, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled against the companies’ effort to dismiss the case on the basis that federal law prevents claims under state law, allowing it to continue to trial.”
New York suing major beef producer over environmental impact of products
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Feb 28, 2024
“New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) is suing JBS Foods, a major beef producer, accusing the company of misleading the public about the environmental impact of its products.
‘The beef industry is one of the largest contributors to climate change, and JBS has falsely advertised its commitment to sustainability and endangered our planet,’”
Climate Change Weekly #498: Chicago Follies: Windy City Joins Climate Lawfare Money Grab
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, Feb 29, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Bumper Profits For Drax Paid By £842 Million Subsidies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 29, 2024
SMMT Wants More Subsidies For EVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 1, 2024
“’The Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said it was clear that the decision to delay the ban on the sale of new cars powered by petrol and diesel to 2035, announced by Rishi Sunak in September last year, had backfired.’”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA narrowing climate rule for power plants, saying it will take on more robust action later
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 29, 2024
Rees-Mogg On The CCC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 29, 2024
Video on false claims about climate change and the UK Climate Change Committee
Small manufacturers forced to answer 300 questions on net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 26, 2024
“Small manufacturers are being forced to fill out 300-question spreadsheets on their eco-credentials as part of a net zero drive by big business.”
“Simon Kenney, chief executive of the advanced materials producer, said the lack of a widely adopted standard on net zero rules for supply chains had created a void that a rash of environmental, social and governance (ESG) consultants were seeking to fill.”
The UK is much closer to blackouts than anyone dares to admit
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 25, 2024
Britain at risk of blackouts amid delays to French-built reactors
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2024
Collapsing energy use reveals Britain’s economic disaster
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 29, 2024
“Britain used enough energy to power 155 million homes for a year in 2005. By 2022, the equivalent figure had fallen to 128 million – a slump of 17pc in less than 20 years.
Historically, there has been a strong correlation between higher energy consumption and faster economic growth, says Ben McWilliams, an affiliate fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.”
Net-zero targets have hamstrung British prosperity
By Paul Homewood, from the Spectator, Feb 29, 2024
“’ Investing in clean technologies is a good idea. Many of them will fail but some will go on to become great generators of wealth. But as China proves, you don’t need a legally binding net-zero target to make money selling the technology to others. As the US is showing, what really powers industrial growth is cheap energy.’”
T-4 2027/28 Capacity Auction
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The T-4 auction is the Four-Year Ahead Capacity Auction with delivery dates for the 2023 auction set for 2027/2028.]
Germany’s Unstable Power Grid…Coal Plants Will Be Needed “For A Very Long Time”
When green energy ideology clashes with the laws of Engineering and physics…
By KlimaNachrichten Editor, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 1, 2024
Link to article: Netzbetreiber warnen: Stromnetz kollapsgefährdet wie nie
By Manfred Haferburg, Achgut.com, Feb 26, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
Aussie Energy Execs Urge a Coal Backup “Safety Net” to Ease the Net Zero Transition
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 26, 2024
Energy Issues — US
“The Shaping of Oil and Gas Law by Academics”(Four pioneers)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 1, 2024
“Ed. Note: This tribute to the four leading professors among oil and gas law pioneers in academia was presented by the late Joseph W. Morris in 2001. It is reprinted in appreciation of private property rights to the subsoil that has set the U.S. apart from most of the rest of the world.”
For Electricity, Americans Deserve More Choices
By John Berger, Real Clear Energy, Feb 26, 2024
New York Strives For “Climate Justice”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 28, 2024
“The slide shows from the state’s own data that only 4% of PM2.5 emissions come from the entire electricity generation sector, and only a tenth of that, 0.4% of the total, from the peaker plants. Of the remaining 96%, the large majority comes from burning wood, and the rest from a wide variety of sources, mostly in industry, agriculture and transportation.”
[SEPP Comments: More problems from EPA false claims of dangers of PM2.5]
NRG Will Seek $900 Million in Loans to Build New Gas-Fired Power Plants
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Feb 28, 2024
“Texas, which leads the U.S. in renewable energy generation capacity, is looking to add more gas-fired power plants to support a power grid that has been stressed by extreme weather events in recent years.”
[SEPP Comment: Texas never had extreme weather events before? It needs storage capacity when wind and solar fail. It should revise its policies regarding wind, solar, and just in time gas delivery.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Congress Must Investigate John Podesta’s Role in Biden’s LNG Decision
By Larry Behrens, Real Clear Energy, Feb 29, 2024
[SEPP Comment: On Jan 31, the administration announced that John Podesta would replace John Kerry as the administration’s special climate envoy.]
Biden names 3 nominees to independent energy regulator
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 29, 2024
Biden administration announces $366 million for rural renewable energy projects
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 27, 2024
“The Department of Energy announced more than $350 million for rural renewable energy projects from the bipartisan infrastructure law funds Tuesday.”
[SEPP Comment: Building infrastructure with unreliable power.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Qatar Expanding Natural Gas Export Capacity After Biden Admin Paused New Hub Approvals
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Feb 25, 2024
Chevron’s LNG carriers to get reliquefaction units
By LNG Prime Staff, Feb 22, 2024
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
The Oil & Gas Industry Must Do More to Stop Methane Leaks
By Kim Anderson, Real Clear Energy, Feb 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: From a mother in Pennsylvania about a nearby storage field.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
In First, NRC Approves Nuclear Fuel Fabrication Enriched up to 8% for Commercial Power Generation
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Feb 17, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
If Climate Change is Knocking Down Power Pylons, Why Build More Renewables?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 28, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Drax: UK power station still burning rare forest wood
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Isn’t burning wood from “rare forests” in Canada less polluting than burning coal?]
Plan H
John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Apple cancels decade-long electric car project, source says
By Stephen Nellis and Shivansh Tiwary, Reuters, Feb 28, 2024
Mercedes-Benz Scraps Plans to Make Only Electric Vehicles Due to ‘Market Conditions’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 26, 2024
“Mercedes-Benz has backtracked on their plan to transition to selling only electric vehicles after 2030, with company officials saying that “market conditions” have not allowed that to happen.”
“TRANSLATION – NOBODY WANTS TO BUY THE USELESS THINGS!”
Just How Bad are EVs?
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, Feb 26, 2024
“Last year Ford lost $4.7 billion on EV revenues of $5.9 billion. The company estimates it will lose $5-5.5 billion on EVs this year. The company’s goal of reaching an 8% operating margin by 2026 was dismissed by Ford’s CFO John Lawler during his presentation to investment analysts earlier this year. ‘I don’t think anybody believes we can bridge from here to 8% by 2026,’ he said. The EV division ‘needs to be profitable and provide a return.’ Shareholders, not only taxpayers and automobilists, are losers.”
[SEPP Comment: Nothing wrong with shareholders absorbing the costs of failed investments, but having taxpayers support high subsidies is different.]
EV Price War Starts–But Still Nobody Wants One
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 24, 2024
E-Car Sales Stall In Germany…Trend Shows Country Will Fall Far Short Of 2030 Target
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 25, 2024
The phase change is upon us. Suddenly everyone is backing away from EVs
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 1, 2024
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles: UNSALABLE
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 28, 2024
“’ “I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.’ (James Carter, below)
“Conclusion: ‘Driveway Jewelry’”
Carbon Schemes
Clearing the Air: Is Direct Air Capture a Savior, Distraction, or a Trojan Horse?
By Stan Kaplan, Power Mag, Feb 28, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Is a plant in Iceland that receives electrical power from a geothermal plant a good demonstration project?]
California Dreaming
Why California’s climate disclosure law should doom green energy
By Craig Rucker, The Orange County Register, Feb 19, 2024
Health, Energy, and Climate
Arsenic Is Everywhere!
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Feb 27, 2024
Environmental Industry
Dialing For Anti-LNG Dollars
The NGOs behind Biden’s LNG “pause” have annual budgets totaling $1.14 billion, including tens of millions of dollars per year in dark money.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, March 1, 2024
“In addition, the LNG pause is a clear win for Biden’s campaign funding effort, a win for Qatar’s LNG business, and loss for energy security in Europe.”
The Environmental Working Group Recycles Old Tricks: Now It’s A ‘New’ Pesticide
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Feb 27, 2024
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Preparing for the 104F (40C) Sydney Climate Apocalypse
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 24, 2023
“700 miles closer to the equator, we Queenslanders are already living this predicted 104F Sydney climate apocalypse. I’m happy to share the life saving strategies we have developed. When the temperature hits 104F, we find some convenient shade and drink an ice-cold beer.”
Claim: “the loss of dung beetles … creating a climate doom loop”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 25, 2024
Real real reality
John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 28, 2024
“Not to be outdone in the starry-eyed department, Canary Media emailed ‘Turning the earth into a battery’. And OK, the planet has poles and an electric field and stuff.”
The Fastest Slug On Earth!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 1, 2024
“And the idea that our seas are now as warm as the Mediterranean is obviously absurd. Just as is the idea that these slugs have been “migrating” northwards. In fact, it has been established by scientists that they can only move at about 5 cm an hour. If it moves steadily forward at this speed every hour in every day, it would still only cover about a quarter of a mile in a year, by which time it would probably be dead!”
Cannibalism to save the world? New Scientist opens that door…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 2, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The return of long pork that tastes like spam?]
ARTICLES
1. An EPA Squeeze on Fossil Fuels
Biden’s new air quality standard means higher costs for little benefit.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 25, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with”
“Hardly a day goes by without a White House press release flogging a federally funded project or factory. Someone should tell the Environmental Protection Agency.
The EPA recently finalized a rule slashing the national ambient air quality standard for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) by 25%. These pollutants are generated in fossil-fuel combustion, but 84% come from non-industrial sources such as road dust, agriculture and wildfires. EPA aims to use the rule to block projects it considers to be too reliant on fossil-fuel energy.
Fine particulate emissions have fallen by about 40% over the last two decades owing to cleaner internal combustion engines and power plants. Thank you, shale fracking and innovation. Yet many localities continue to be in ‘non-attainment’ with EPA’s previous 12 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3) annual standard for reasons beyond their control.
This includes large swaths of California, where weather patterns and topography trap pollutants. Wildfires are also a major source of PM 2.5. When localities are labelled in non-attainment, they must develop plans to comply. This involves more stringent state permitting for new plants and construction projects.
Permitting requirements for everything from new gas-fired power plants to semiconductor factories and highway construction could soon get tougher since EPA is reducing its PM 2.5 standard to 9 ug/m3. A U.S. Chamber of Commerce study estimated that 569 counties could be in ‘non-attainment’ with EPA’s new standard.
This includes most of California and many pockets of the Rust Belt, South and Pacific Northwest. Don’t worry, Californians. EPA says it is ‘working to ensure there is an efficient, user-friendly pathway for excluding data impacted by prescribed fire and wildfire smoke.’ Yet EPA hasn’t granted 70% of exemption requests in the past for pollutants caused by wildfires.
The editorial states EPA controls the exemption process than conclude with:
“Cement and concrete manufacturers recently warned that ‘to comply with the lower standard, U.S. manufacturers may have to cut back hours of operation, which would lead to fewer construction materials being produced, potential layoffs at manufacturing plants and inevitable delays in construction.’ Contractors will have to import more materials.
By the way, annual particulate levels in China exceed 30 ug/m3, but Beijing isn’t blocking new coal plants or steel factories. The European Union’s PM 2.5 limit is 25 ug/m3—nearly three times higher than EPA’s new standard. Yet Europeans have lower asthma rates than Americans.
EPA’s rule will yield negligible public-health benefits but will have significant economic costs. As usual, climate trumps all in the Biden Administration.”
**********************
Re; “UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2024: +0.93 deg. C”
The parts of Dr Spencer’s UAH update not quoted in the summary above:
Global temperature?
If you say so.
He does, it’s all he’s got – he’s a one-trick pony.
We’ve had a beautifully warm February here in Wisconsin with some golf courses open and a couple of days when we could play comfortably in shorts. Love it. Sunday we hit 74F! Too bad that this nice weather is unlikely to be a regular occurrence. Just in case, I’ll be leaving the plow and chains on the truck until May as usual.
“”Better than life””
Channel 27 News…
Europe. A terrorist representing the Revolutionary Working Front, a
fanatical left wing group dedicated to eliminating the middle class, was arrested today.
The man, Henri le Clerque, was attempting to poison the mineral spring in France which is the source of all the world’s Perrier water. Had he succeeded experts believe the middle class would have been wiped out within three weeks.
https://reddwarfquotes.com/red-dwarf-full-script-series-2-episode-2-better-than-life
Now for XR, JSO et al….
UN climate chief’s blunt message: Fewer loopholes, way more cash to really halt climate change
To keep Earth from overheating too much, the nations of the world need to put fewer loopholes in climate agreements and far more money — trillions of dollars a year — into financial help for poor nations, the United Nations climate chief said Friday.
In an unusual and blunt lecture at a university in Baku, Azerbaijan, the host city of upcoming international climate negotiations later this year, United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell called gains made in the past not nearly enough. Without the proper amount of cash, he said those could “quickly fizzle away into more empty promises.”
Much of it comes down to money: $2.4 trillion a year, Stiell said. That’s how much a United Nations High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimated that developing nations — not including China — need to invest in renewable energy instead of dirtier fossil fuels, as well as to adapt to and recover from climate change harms such as floods, storms, droughts and heat waves.
“Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of electricity generation in Eurasia – Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan”
IEA ‘Electricity 2024 Analysis and forecast to 2026’
Seems the COP party goers are in love with fossil fuels. Last year UAE this year Azerbaijan.
‘…United Nations Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell called gains made in the past not nearly enough.’
That’s not our Simon, is it? And why is China excluded?
John Kerry: I believe that Russia has the ability to be able to make enormous changes if it really wanted to. I mean, if Russia has the ability to wage a war illegally and invade another country, they ought to be able to find the effort to be responsible in the climate issue.