By Vijay Jayaraj
News of record installations of so-called renewable energy electric generation in China may have kindled the hopes of those supporting the “green” agenda and hostile to fossil fuels. However, China is in no position to give up hydrocarbons, particularly coal.
During the first half of 2023, China approved 52 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power, which was more than all the approvals issued in 2021. These new approvals are in addition to the 136 GW of coal capacity that are already under construction. Together, these new plants represent more than 67% of all new approvals in the world.
Why is China doing this despite climate pledges? And what does the future hold?
Turning Away from Paris One-Step at a Time
Nearly all countries signed the historic Paris Agreement in 2015, which set aggressive goals to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. The assumption was that reducing carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels would halt future warming deemed as catastrophic.
As part of this accord, China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, agreed to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak its emissions of carbon dioxide by 2030. Many praised these promises, celebrating China’s apparent acceptance of its supposed responsibility to address the climate issue.
But these promises are at odds with reality. China’s economy is mostly based on fossil fuels, which are the most affordable, abundant and dependable energy source. At 159 exajoules, China’s primary energy consumption in 2022 was the highest in the world and 40% more than that consumed the U.S. — the second largest user.
Last year, 82 percent of the total energy consumed by China came from coal, oil and natural gas. Wind and solar, despite significant investments by Beijing, represented just 7% of all energy consumed in 2022.
Coal remains the linchpin of China’s energy infrastructure and economic vitality. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, coal consumption increased by more than 4% in 2022. Coal imports in August 2023 were the highest since 2015. China is ramping up its import from Russia and Australia and continues to increase imports from Indonesia, which is its main supplier.
Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com writes, “China is mining record amounts of coal and also importing record volumes of coal as it looks to boost its energy security.” This growing appetite for coal is inevitable given the huge demand from the power sector and industry in general.
Demand from Industries to Increase Coal Demand
Over 1 billion tons of crude steel are produced in China each year, accounting for over half of global steel output. The Chinese steel industries—over 90 percent of them—use coal-based processes.
Despite introducing in 2021 a policy to curb emissions of carbon dioxide, Beijing has yet to announce any cap for steel production. S&P Global believes that there will “be no mandatory steel output cuts this year.” The crude steel output in 2023 is to exceed 2022 levels.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, “Chinese steel firms are making significant investments in new, coal-based steelmaking capacity.” To put this in context, China’s approval of new steel capacity per year is twice that of the entire capacity of the German steel industry.
Like steelmaking, the manufacturing of cement is energy intensive, with coal accounting for up to 85% of the energy used in the process. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of cement.
According to analysts, “China consumes as much cement every two years as the U.S. did over the entire 20th century.” Cement production is projected to increase further in coming years, and high demand will possibly last for decades.
In short, China’s security and economic growth depend on satiating the country’s colossal appetite for fossil fuels. Western politics around a non-existent climate crisis won’t change that.
This commentary was first published at Real Clear Energy on November 20, 2023.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, UK.
The Chinese have no honor. It is telling that the West feels it is in no position to cll them out on those lies.
The real lie is the West’s claim there is a dire climate crisis, whereas, more and more, Nobel-level scientists are scientifically proving CO2 is a very minor actor that could not cause a “climate crisis”
The Chinese, Indian, etc., people are highly intelligent. The IPCC climate message, propagated by the mainstream media, MSM, in the West, finds no traction in these countries, which have united themselves to form BRISC 11, soon to become BRISC 30 in coming years
I think the IPCC message finds perfect traction.
China and India are more than happy to tell the U.S. and Europe to panic about CAGW and raise their national energy prices through the roof.
All manufacturing of goods with any significant energy component now moves over to China and India.
They get the jobs, the money, and the industrial capacity in the event of a future major war.
It’s like selling Jack magic beans that NEVER sprout into a giant beanstalk overnight, yet Jack keeps coming back to trade another cow each and every new morning.
Our politicians in the West are either that stupid, or they are getting 10% of the action.
Do you mean that The Big Guy 10 % Dementia Joe “Biden Brand” Brandon (aka Robert L. Peters aka Robert Ware aka JRB Ware) is only the tip of the crony capitalist iceberg?
There is plenty of stupidity in the West but it’s not the elected officials who are getting away with in-your-face criminal corruption that is making them millionaires. It’s those among “we the people” who vote for the Party members who are getting away with their “high crimes”. Vote counting matters,
not to mention having all the necessary items to make green energy – like the Russians selling us the rope
Honor? That’s absurd. Countries do not have honor. They have only what’s in their interests.
Countries on the whole, meaning the average person, may have honor. Politicians and oligarchs do not.
Currently then US and UK and other English speaking nations, which at one time had some level of honor, such honor has been removed through the softening of the old “stiff upper lip” through the never ending progression to liberalism, which at its core is wholly dishonorable.
This progression initiated by the greed of the 51% who receive a disproportional portion of taxes and control the “elected” politicians. Romney’s 48% is now over 50%. The idiot Romney, speaking the fact out loud, motivated the 48% to GET OUT TO VOTE.
And China’s coal pollution is constant….Inner Mongolian mine pollutes air with radioactive dust (uranium) and mine fire kills 26 and injures more….China is an ongoing disaster….trillion dollar real estate debt….trillion dollar trains debt….belt % road debt…what a place….commie free enterprise?
CCP owns all the land in China. What a great business. Take the land then sell to developers. This is one reason they seem to have unlimited money. In addition they can tax with impunity. They will likely just hold the “climate” hostage by pumping out carbon then getting the rest of the world to pay them to stop. Another great business plan. We are dealing with a different kind of beast. Giving them access to our markets in exchange for cheap goods is not the way to eternal bliss.
“Giving them access to our markets”
Thanks to Nixon and especially Clinton. (WTO most favored nations status.)
“As part of this accord, China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, agreed to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak its emissions of carbon dioxide by 2030.”
They need to hurry building coal so they can have them all up and running by 2030. If they aren’t all up and running they may have to move the goal posts to 2040. Carbon neutrality is easy they will claim to be neutral therefore they are.
Bob. Correct and in 2030 the Chinese emphasis switches to nuclear. All those 30-year-old plus coal plants will have completed their economic life in 2060. Likewise, those wind and solar farms built before 2030 in the northern deserts can be left to rot. Meanwhile the USA is to be all wind and solar by 2060 and the plan is to dismantle and replace 1/30th of them every year forever. Does anyone see any sustainable issue with “the plan”? We-are-screwed.
1/30th? In what dreamland will wind or solar last 30 years?
China has not agreed to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. China said that it was merely its aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. I aim to be a billionaire next year. I think that is more likely to happen than China’s aim to reach carbon neutrality.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54256826
“ and peak its emissions of carbon dioxide by 2030”. So you build all these coal plants before 2030 then that is your peak. Plus, with the population bomb they will burn less after 2030 as they lose population and look we are reducing. Funny how numbers work. Meanwhile the West goes bankrupt.
No secret.
Words are cheap and promises are easy to renege on – not to mention the Chinese Communist Party does not and will not feel bound by either in 2030 or for that matter at any point in the future.
The Asians are pretty good at mathematics and are able to work out that the rise in CO2 since pre-industrial times, 140 ppm, equates to 0.014%. Or put more simply, the composition of the atmosphere has changed by a lot less than 1 thousandth of 1 percent per decade due to CO2 since 1850. They are not going to stop expanding their economy. Ever.
China may well welcome this development. They have been waiting patiently to revenge themselves for past humiliations at the hands of western nations going back many decades. Anything that weakens the west is welcome.
Private financing only affects the democratic countries of the world. Communist and socialist countries use taxpayer funded state financing as their source of funding and thus are exempt.
Canada has no business being in these talks. Climate action has ruined its economy, leading to a crisis in the cost of living for all but the wealthy elite.
But still Trudope is the PM.
You REALLY need to dump Quebec from your national government.
Ever been to Mexico? Mañana doesn’t mean tomorrow is spite of what you have been told. Ever have a girl tell you “later”. In spite of what your ears tell you, the girl is saying “never”.
2030 is exactly the same.
Lying is a very successful survival strategy. Many life forms have evolved survival strategies based on lying. For example fish with false eyes on their tails, or harmless snakes and insects colored to match poisonous varieties.
Humans are perhaps the most accomplished liars on the planet and one should not be surprised to discover that diplomacy is based in large part on lying between nations to gain advantage at minimal cost.
Rescue Mission Underway for 41 Miners Trapped in Indian Coal Mine
https://bnn.network/breaking-news/accidents/rescue-mission-underway-for-41-miners-trapped-in-indian-coal-mine/