Via The Australian: Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at University of Washington, said the public was being “misinformed on a massive scale”: “It‘s terrible. I think it’s a disaster. There’s a stunning amount of exaggeration and hype of extreme weather and heatwaves, and it’s very counter-productive,” he told The Australian in an interview. “I’m not a contrarian. I‘m pretty mainstream in a very large [academic] department, and I think most of these claims are unfounded and problematic”. …
Professor Mass said the climate was “radically warmer” around 1000 years ago during what’s known as the Medieval Warm Period, when agriculture thrived in parts of now ice-covered Greenland. “If you really go back far enough there were swamps near the North Pole, and the other thing to keep in mind is that we‘re coming out of a cold period, a Little Ice Age from roughly 1600 to 1850”.
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John Christy, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, said heatwaves in the first half of the 20th century were at least as intense as those of more recent decades based on consistent, long-term weather stations going back over a century. “I haven‘t seen anything yet this summer that’s an all-time record for these long-term stations, 1936 still holds by far the record for the most number of stations with the hottest-ever temperatures,” he told The Australian, referring to the year of a great heatwave in North America that killed thousands.
Professor Christy said an explosion of the number of weather stations in the US and around the world had made historical comparisons difficult because some stations only went back a few years; meanwhile, creeping urbanization had subjected existing weather stations to additional heat. “In Houston, for example, in the centre it is now between 6 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding countryside,” he explained in an interview with The Australian.
Professor Christy, conceding a slight warming trend over the last 45 years, said July could be the warmest month on record based on global temperatures measured by satellites – “just edging out 1998” – but such measures only went back to 1979.
By: Admin – Climate Depot August 3, 2023 7:43 AM
Top climate scientists rubbish claims July was the hottest month ever | The Australian
People try to keep cool at Coney Island during the US heatwave. Picture: Getty Images via AFP.
WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT – THE AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPER
AUGUST 2, 2023
Two of America’s top climate scientists have rubbished claims July was the hottest month on record, deploring a “stunning amount of exaggeration and hype” surrounding the UN Secretary-General’s statement last week that “the era of global boiling [had] arrived.”
Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at University of Washington, said the public was being “misinformed on a massive scale” following a deluge of news reports that summer heatwaves in the US and Europe had pushed July’s average temperature above 17 degrees, and allegedly to the highest level in 120,000 years. UN
“It‘s terrible. I think it’s a disaster. There’s a stunning amount of exaggeration and hype of extreme weather and heatwaves, and it’s very counter-productive,” he told The Australian in an interview.
“I’m not a contrarian. I‘m pretty mainstream in a very large [academic] department, and I think most of these claims are unfounded and problematic”.
John Christy, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, said heatwaves in the first half of the 20th century were at least as intense as those of more recent decades based on consistent, long-term weather stations going back over a century.
“I haven‘t seen anything yet this summer that’s an all time record for these long term stations, 1936 still holds by far the record for the most number of stations with the hottest ever temperatures,” he told The Australian, referring to the year of a great heatwave in North America that killed thousands.
Professor Christy said an explosion of the number of weather stations in the US and around the world had made historical comparisons difficult because some stations only went back a few years; meanwhile, creeping urbanisation had subjected existing weather stations to additional heat.
“In Houston, for example, in the centre it is now between 6 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the surrounding countryside,” he explained in an interview with The Australian.
Major newspapers from the Washington Post to the London Times have reported July as the hottest month on record after the average global daily temperature last month surpassed 17 C – around 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels – based on satellite data compiled by the University of Maine.
“We’re just really starting to see climate change kick in,” Nathan Lenssen, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Colorado, told the Washington Post last month.
Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University, told the Times that July was “outrageously warm” and may have been the warmest month since the Eemian interglacial period, about 120,000 years ago.
Growing concern about higher temperatures caused by humans has underpinned a global push to slash carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 by phasing out fossil fuels in favour of solar and wind power, fuelling major political and scientific debates.
“Hot enough for you? Thank a MAGA Republican. Or better yet, vote them out of office,” tweeted former Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton last week.
The IMF cancelled a scheduled talk by Nobel prize winner John Clauser last week after he publicly stated: “I can confidently say there is no real climate crisis, and that climate change does not cause extreme weather events.”
Professor Christy, conceding a slight warming trend over the last 45 years, said July could be the warmest month on record based on global temperatures measured by satellites – “just edging out 1998” – but such measures only went back to 1979.
Professor Mass said the climate was “radically warmer” around 1000 years ago during what’s known as the Medieval Warm Period, when agriculture thrived in parts of now ice-covered Greenland.
“If you really go back far enough there were swamps near the North Pole, and the other thing to keep in mind is that we‘re coming out of a cold period, a Little Ice Age from roughly 1600 to 1850”.
“Global warming, it‘s a serious issue, but it’s a slow issue, it’s not an existential threat,” he added, suggesting human activities may have added up to one degree Celsius to average temperatures since the 1980s.
WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT
Adam Creighton is an award-winning journalist with a special interest in tax and financial policy. He was a Journalist in Residence at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business in 2019. He’s written … Read more
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Related Links:
No, the Earth Did Not have an ‘Unprecedented and Terrifying … All-Time High Temperature’ on July 4th – Not the hottest in 100,000 years – NOAA & AP back away from claim– Meteorologist Anthony Watts: On July 3rd and 4th and the following days, multiple mainstream media outlets ran stories claiming that the Earth had experienced an unprecedented hot day(s). This is false. The data they cited was not official data, but from a private website and investigation shows the claim was a gross error.
Forbes: July 4 Was Earth’s Hottest Day In Over 100000 Years
Apparently, all those people missed the fact that they were looking at the output of a climate model, not actually measured temperatures. Only one news outlet, The Associated Press, bothered to print a sensible caveat…The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration distanced itself from the designation, compiled by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, which uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world’s condition….
The AP updated its story on July 7th to include this single yet very important paragraph: “NOAA, whose figures are considered the gold standard in climate data, said in a statement Thursday that it cannot validate the unofficial numbers. It noted that the reanalyzer uses model output data, which it called ‘not suitable’ as substitutes for actual temperatures and climate records. The agency monitors global temperatures and records on a monthly and an annual basis, not daily.”
So, in the space of two days, we went from temperature data that was “[t]otally unprecedented and terrifying,” to temperature data that was not suitable for purpose.
‘Supposed’ Record Temperature In China Not All It Seems– Paul Homewood: “There is a highly coordinated effort taking place to persuade the public that the world’s climate is somehow out of control, with extreme weather everywhere and heatwaves on every continent.” … “Quite clearly, any record temperature set in the Turpan is meaningless and cannot be compared to other locations in China. It is merely the product of a micro climate. There is also a second issue here. Sanbao has no official listing or any historical data…In short we have no way of knowing whether it has been hotter in Saobao in the past, or whether the thermometer there is even properly sited and maintained.”
Dr. Roger Pielke: ‘Neither the UN IPCC nor the US National Climate Assessment have high confidence in detection or attribution of trends in heat waves is the US’–Pielke Jr.: “Neither the IPCC nor the US National Climate Assessment have high confidence in detection or attribution of trends in heat waves is the US So either the IPCC is wrong or the media/activist scientists are wrong. Pick one.”
Posted 1:33 PM by Marc Morano | Tags: avg, heatwvave, media, ocean warming
Fox News Channel – Jesse Watters Primetime – Broadcast – Are arsonists responsible for global wildfires? ‘The Green Fraud’ author Marc Morano says there are ‘other forces at work’ as wildfires rage across the planet on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’
Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Warming saves 166,000 lives each year:Heat deaths make up about 1% of global fatalities a year—almost 600,000 deaths—but cold kills eight times as many people, totaling 4.5 million deaths annually. As temperatures have risen since 2000, heat deaths have increased 0.21%, while cold deaths have dropped 0.51%. Today about 116,000 more people die from heat each year, but 283,000 fewer die from cold. Global warming now prevents more than 166,000 temperature-related fatalities annually.
Watch: Fox host Stuart Varney challenges Morano over heatwave-climate link
Fox Business – Varney & Co. – Broadcast July 19, 2023
Stuart Varney: Marc Morano from the Climate Depot joins me now. We just heard in Phoenix, they had 19 straight days above 110 degrees. Now, wait, you’re a climate skeptic, is this not the result of climate change?
Marc Morano: “This is not outside the normal bounds of hot summer weather. Yes, it’s a record year. It could be one of the hottest, but here’s the thing. Joe Biden’s EPA has a chart of the heatwave index going back to the 1930s. The 1930s are probably 8 to 10 or 12 times hotter in the United States than anything we’re currently seeing.
Morano: 75% of all state temperature records were broken before the 1950s — these records still stand. Now. This is a way that statistics — when you heard things like CNN or New York Times or others have said this is the ‘hottest’ in Earth’s history. Those claims were based on climate models, which even the NOAA –National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration — backed away from. They are weaponizing hot summers, heat waves to turn it into some kind of call for climate action. This is not outside the bounds of normal weather, I’m sorry.
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John Christy, who is quoted in the above article, publishes the UAH lower troposphere temperature data set, which starts in Dec 1978.
The latest update to that data set is July 2023, which was not only the warmest July in the UAH record, but also the warmest month of all, in terms of absolute temperature.
Just for some context.
It might even have been fractionally the warmest since 1936. The ‘40s to ‘70s suffered a cooling cycle during the secular warming trend since c. AD 1850, the end of the Little Ice Age cool period.
Good weather reasons suffice to explain heat domes in both hemispheres and in SSTs. CO2 need not apply.
Yes, TFN it was a wonderful summery July.
Let’s hope August and September will be equally as summery.
(and don’t forget, if one of your summer days is not ‘goldilocks weather’ enough for you, just jump in your EV and drive 60 miles (1 hour?) north, where “on average” it will be ~ 1C cooler. But make sure you have enough juice in the battery for the return trip.)
I’m convinced that TFN is here just to troll.
No, I’m not. I’m just in a state of incredulity that so many people can be so easily misled.
That so many people who call themselves ‘skeptical’ never actually check anything that contradicts their opinions.
This site is awash with them.
I read just about everything you post here TFN.
When I find myself fretting about my stock portfolio’s performance, I find it soothing to see that someone, somewhere is needlessly fretting more about some inconsequential trivia.
So I come here to read your comments.
Thank you, please keep giving me something to distract me from real-world concerns.
It didn’t take me long to figure out that for a site that prides itself on skepticism the audience here does not tolerate skepticism very well.
I disagree.
This site certainly tolerates scepticism, the proof is you, TFN, Nick etc are still here. On other sites, people who are sceptical of our current pleasant warming will be catastrophic are banned for asking relevant questions (personal experience).
Nick, in my opinion, sometimes makes valid points. Nick in particular causes me pause to think because he often makes sense and backs up his comments with data.
Sadly, Griff has gone (of his own accord), but I’m not sure that is a loss as the vast majority of his comments were crazy to put it mildly. His constant nonsense about German flooding being the worst ever, despite photographic evidence to the contrary, was boring.
Bring data links, not opinions, and your comments will be better received. That applies to TFN as well.
“skepticism”
You are not the least bit sceptical.
You are a mindless parrot-like regurgitator, unable to think for itself.
We do understand that is all you are capable of.
“that so many people can be so easily misled.”
Yet you are the one CONSTANTLY being mislead… totally GULLIBLE
… and totally incapable of facing facts and presenting evidence…
It is incredulous, yes. !
In the UAH global temperature update, I responded to Milo about the claim of whether Phoenix had really hit 110 degrees for over 30 days this summer. This was your response. It was obvious I was referring to the station data, so why did you respond with such a dumb comment? You’re obviously just trying to annoy people. UHI is a big problem for you. When I or anyone else brings it up to you, you just label it as an ‘excuse’ and call us deniers.
Seriously, TFN?
Have you read and checked any of the statements in the post above?
Do you agree with NOAA, Cristy and Mass that the claims of July being the hottest evaaaah are wrong? A simple yes/no answer is all that is required.
Do you agree it’s possible that July could have been warmer before the satellite era but we may not have had sufficient worldwide measurements to know for sure?
Where’s that, California?
The UAH dataset is NOT absolute temperature, you do not even know what those words mean. It is not even actual air temperature, it is a temperature anomaly dataset.
Since you do not even know what you are looking at, it seems unlikely you’re able to comment yourself or assess whether others are being skeptical or not. “Just for some context.”
Quite clearly not. There was at least one month in 2016 which was noticeable warmer.
You cannot even look at a simple graph without closing one eye, ignoring the data you don’t and making false declarations.
When I see the number climate activist who blatantly lie , twist the facts and then claim skeptics are not being truely skeptical, I’m just in a state of incredulity.
UAH publishes the absolute temperature. The files are located here. I provide a graph of the UAH absolute temperatures here.
TFN is as untrustworthy as Dr. Christy is trustworthy.
Just a reminder for everyone…it is summer only in the NH. In the SH it is winter. So if we’re going to describe July as “summery” then we would have to describe January as “summery” as well.
It has been an absolutely GORGEOUS winter down here, too.
Nice crisp mornings, blue skies, warming to low 20’s C during the day.
Reminds me of the perfect bush camping conditions in Qld I used to revel in back in the day.
Out & about all day in shorts & t-shirts, starry skies at night, dingoes howling around the ridges, ghost stories for the kids, Blazing Saddles campfire renditions . . .
If you are in Australia then yes, according to UAH, you just had your warmest July since their record began in 1979.
I WAS in Oz in July 1979.
Surfed, swam, skied, sailed, fished, golfed, played bowls, (and other kinds of pursuits that required minimalist attire) – what a glorious month!
“warmest July since their record began in 1979.”
If so.. it was ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS.
Bring it on ! 🙂
June was so cold
2023
March 9th warmest.
April, 17th warmest
May 24th warmest
June 16th warmest
About darn time we had a nice month for a change !
If you are in Australia then yes, according to UAH, you just had your warmest July since their record began in 1979.
No. Only some very small parts of the south east and Tas.
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/temperature/meandecile/month/colour/history/nat/2023070120230731.gif
I don’t know what happened to my post but I will try again.
To your comment…
No. Only for very few small areas in the south east.
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/temperature/meandecile/month/colour/history/nat/2023070120230731.gif
Just for some context.
Australia year-to-date… 2023 is in 19th place
In Oklahoma we didn’t come close to having the warmest July since 1979. The 1930’s were the period of record warmth around here.
I think that applies to almost the entire United States and Canada, with the possible exception of Phoenix. Phoenix is located in a desert, btw.
So apparently “global temperatures” are not really relevant to local temperatures. We live in local temperatures, not global temperatures.
Another crock of isht. You have no idea what you are talking about [ said with Dr Faucci head wobble ].
If that month was warm as a global mean tells you NOTHING about one individual part of the globe. You clearly have not the first understanding science, statistics and maths yet oddly think you can make such ill-informed conclusions to slander most readers here. The large majority of who are technically literate, if not highly qualified.
I can’t say the summer here in St. Louis has been bad. We’ve only had an Excess Heat Warning once this year. That is a win in my book.
Summer in St. Louis this year has *not* been bad at all compared to St. Louis in the 1930’s.
I’m not too far from St. Louis and have experienced a relatively mild summer this year, although we have a heatwave going on now, but it will break soon, and it’s nowhere near as warm a heatwave as we have had in the past. Not even close.
A record “global temperature” means nothing down here on the ground.
This year was anomalous. Remember the winter storm of year end 2014? We live just south of the Italian Hill and that’s when we decided to winter in California. We did that 3 times and summer temps rose enough for us to switch 180 out. This is the first recent summer when we skipped out on summering in Pismo Beach.
We’ve camped in central Mo. 4 times this year, with only one of them spent mostly hiding in our air conditioned Escape 5.0TA. The last time a couple of weeks ago in Washington State Park. ~40 relatives/friends, from both sides, in campers and 3 cabins. Yes, we had AC but were outside most of the time. Trophy weather.
On the way to Prince Edward Island now, for August. We cooked up the trip to beat some heat, but it looks like you all are moderating.
Tip to many. Avoid Canadian “Enroutes”. They are zoos.
So it would also be wintery in January in the SH then?
By Mr.’s logic apparently so. Most illogical indeed.
“Yes, TFN it was a wonderful summery July.”
Not from where I was standing, it wasn’t.
Which only goes to confirm that different places all all around the world continually experience different conditions, and that “average global temperatures” are a nonsensical construct.
You really need to pass this insight on to John Christy and Roy Spencer at UAH, and Anthony Watts too. Spencer and Christy publish a ‘global’ temperature value every month and Watts carries it on the sideboard of this site.
Had you not noticed?
Have you ever considered that they might all be posting these things to wind up obsessives like you for a bit of amusement, TFN?
After all, those huge monthly payments they each get from BigOil must be a challenge for them to find something to spend it all on, so they’re entitled to seek a bit of distraction each month.
On the sideboard? With the devilled kidneys I presume.
Different places all around the world have different sea levels. Is mean sea level a nonsensical construct? Different places all around the world have different gravitational accelerations. Is the mean gravitational acceleration a nonsensical construct? Different places all around the world have different densities. Is the mean density a nonsensical construct?
Only if you obsess about them.
Yes
So you agree that using gravitational ice data for Greenland or Antarctica is meaningless..
Thanks, you poor twit !
For anyone with a physics degree, they would know that temperature is not an extensive quanity and thus cannot be added, or “averaged”. Average temperature is not a physically meaningful quantity in science, espectially if you are supposedly trying to asses the effect of a radiation imbalance.
If temperature is being used as a proxy for energy, then you cannot mix different media : land sea and air.
Sadly this horsecrap pseudo science has become accepted as a basis for invalid assessment of climate, spurious attribution and insane attempts to redesign the global economy.
Quite likely but who is measuring that ? Density is also and intensive quantity for mean the mean is not even defined. Just because you can take the average of two numbers does not mean you can take the average of physical measurements.
Sorry, I’m sure you have no idea what I’s talking about, but that is just my point. Until you do, you should stop ranting and start learning some science.
Averaging temperature is the only wrench in their toolbox. They also tried averaging tree rings, but this didn’t work out for them.
NOAAs Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd) is described as “containing records from more than 100,000 stations in 180 countries and territories.”
This is true, but not the whole truth. The GHCNd contains records for TMIN, TAVG, TMAX, PRCP (precipitation), and others. There are 741,623 records total in the GNCHd, and of those, there are 40,388 records for TMAX, 40,283 for TAVG, and 9457 for TAVG.
12,185 of the TMAX records reach to 2023, and 7,336 of those begin at most 1991 (so that a 1991-2020 baseline can be generated).
Of those 7,336 stations that have enough data, 3,468 are located in the US. That’s 47% of all the stations with enough data to allow the most recent 30-year range of data are in 3% of the Earth’s surface. Another 14% are in Russia, China, and Australia. I didn’t work the numbers for Europe, but four countries already have 61% of all the useful stations, and I imagine Europe takes another big cut.
Convince me this sparse data, recorded to a tenth of a degree, can produce an average global anomaly to a hundredth of a degree that’s worth anything.
If you’re UK/Ireland, which I think you are, I hear you!
July was a wash-out. Officially the record rainfall in my region. Wettest July immediately followed the warmest June. (Nothing to see here!)
But temperatures were near-normal on the UK-wide scale (slightly below the 1991-2020 average, slightly above the WMO baseline 1961-1990 average).
Meaningless.
Many countries in Europe were BELOW AVERAGE in July..
And not by a little bit.. often a whole degree C. !
Europe’s Colder-Than-Average (And Snowy) July; + Acclaimed Israeli Astrophysicist Says The Sun Drives Earth’s Climate, Not CO2 – Electroverse
Well, if a source as reliable as Electroverse says Europe was below average this July I guess it must be true. Which goes to show how much warmer the rest of the world must have been to make the global average so hot.
They also claim that the UK is having an historically cold summer, which ignores the fact that June was one of the hottest on record.
https://electroverse.info/uks-historically-cold-summer-drags-on-greenland-ice-sheet-uptick-establishment-disconnect/
I like how they list all the years that have the same July CET value, but ignore the fact that there are around 200 July’s which were colder, including 7 this century.
By the way, one of the months that was cooler is July 1936.
Yes, people have short memories with regard to how good summers are. They forget how warm it was in June, and how often we have cool and wet summers in the past.
Different people record memories of the same event differently and their recall of the event evolves over time.
This is why people with data don’t bring memories
“Just for some context.”
Current world temperatures are well below that of most of the last 10,000 years
There is nothing unusual or to PANIC about a small rise out of the coldest period in 10,000 years, in fact, we should be VERY GLAD of it.
Each year, more that 10 times as many people die from COLD as from warm.
WARM is the OPTIMUM temperature for human existence, but we are still very much in a COOLER period of the last 10,000 years.
UAH data is only 45 years long, It was probably warmer in the mid 1930s (although the temperature data has been so corrupted by the AGW agenda, we can’t be sure)
Once Flaming Nitwits learn these basic facts, there is no need for them to go on, and on, and on, and on, in complete panic and apoplexy, about a very small, totally natural, rise in calculated temperatures.
But the warmest since 1979, according to John Christy.
SO WHAT ! Get some perspective, chicken-little !
That may be. Can you post a link to a global average temperature reconstruction that you accept which shows that the current global average temperature is below that of the 10,000 years?
If you are so ignorant of the climate history of the last 10,000 years,
… no-one can help you. Education, you need to start again from the beginning. !
There is masses of evidence from all around the globe that the Holocene has been significantly warmer than now for nearly all the last 10,000 years.
If you chose to DENY it.. not my problem., but your continued ignorance.
Please tell us how much warmer it must have been when forests grew where glaciers are only just receding a little bit.
Do you have a link to a global temperature reconstruction or not?
yawn,
Facts and data from around the world, just don’t interest you do you.
Some claims are just too juicy to require those pesky old facts.
yep, like warming by atmospheric CO2.
An evidence black hole. !
I really can’t be bothered spending dozens of posts presenting Holocene data from around the globe…. which I know you will just ignore anyway . !
Deliberate ignorance is all you have to work with to maintain your brain-washed mantra.
Next……
If you add in the last 70+ years of warming not included in that graph you’d have to go back almost 1 million years to find an equivalent temperature. I don’t know…I think the evidence saying it was warmer during the peak of the last interglacial 120,000 years ago should not be ignored. I wouldn’t even eliminate the possibility that the Holocene climate optimum was warmer.
“go back almost 1 million years to find an equivalent temperature
.
UTTER BS. !
For a start, only a complete mathematical moron tried to tack on daily/monthly/yearly data to the end of a low resolution temperature series.
All the available real and historical evidence shows that most of the last 10,000 years was SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER than now.
Alarmists (plural) have tacked real temperatures onto all sorts of illogical irrational temperature series.
What is worse, alarmists worship their fellows for making bad science much worse.
What’s sad is the way you actually believe that the warmest July since 1978 actually means something.
I’m not saying it means anything.
So you admit that nothing you say means anything.
Oh, we’re getting very philosophical now…
“Oh, we’re getting very philosophical now…”
What a moronically empty and meaningless comment !
“I’m not saying it means anything.”
Yet you go on and on and on and on and on about it
Like one of those little bobble-heads doll things.
It obviously means something to you, otherwise you would continue to be in a total panic-lather about.
Basically, you are not saying anything at all.
Just empty mindless regurgitation
TFN said:
“The latest update to that data set is July 2023, which was not only the warmest July in the UAH record, but also the warmest month of all, in terms of absolute temperature.”
However, it was NOT the warmest in terms of the anomaly!
07-2023 was an anomaly of +0.64
02-2016 had an anomaly of +0.70
03-2016 had an anomaly of +0.64
Those numbers tie and exceed your “record”.
Of course the “absolute temperature” was hottest during July – at the peak of the northern hemisphere summer. July always exhibits the highest monthly absolute global temperature when integrated over the whole month!
Anomalies apply to single months.
As Roy Spencer himself pointed out with this latest update, July is the warmest month on record globally.
It was him, not me, who pointed out that July 2023 was the warmest month globally ever recorded in his and Christy’s UAH record.
Bloody parrots !
One-brain-celled, one-track.
Half a cell with half a track.
i.e., a half wit incapable of seeing a whole picture.
Here is a graph from a paper published over on Pielkies substack
Atlantic historical hurricane activity,
Clearly shows much higher activity in in the medieval warm period than now.
Following climate alarmist science this means it was incontrovertibly much hotter then, as it was even hotter in the Roman, then hotter in the Minoan, etc etc
Science
Nothing special today, in fact the coldest peak in our descent to the next glaciation.
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/truth-bombs
It’s called weather.
And it’s only the hottest month since 1979.
Spencer also qualifies the findings with:
“These results suggest something peculiar is going on. It’s too early for the developing El Nino in the Pacific to have much effect on the tropospheric temperature record. The Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its “unprecedented” production of extra stratospheric water vapor could be to blame.” (My emphasis)
Wind your neck in son. Nothing to worry your little head about.
Yes, and he is quoted above saying just that:
Professor Christy, conceding a slight warming trend over the last 45 years, said July could be the warmest month on record based on global temperatures measured by satellites – “just edging out 1998” – but such measures only went back to 1979.
Satellite temps only go back to 1979
The Queen of Tonga is passing out blankets to hers subjects as it’s so cold there. It also snowed in South Africa.
You would think people would finally start to catch on that the Mainstream media are a corrupt bunch of liars seeing as they have been wrong on just about every major issue for the last 7 years. But no they double down on the all their BS: climate, political ,COVID. They continue with a black out of everything counter to their tired old narrative.
You would also think the people running the MSM media would have some sort of survival instinct kick in by now- because corrupt banana republics do not have a very good track record. And that is what the US is now.
I saw a poll yesterday showing Biden 2 points ahead! Fools. They are going to wreck it – the whole thing, they are going to destroy it -our economies, our national security, our freedom and ultimately our democratic republic.
I was going to ask 2 points ahead of where but I shall refrain.
Sorry to bring bad news, John, but your republic is not a true democracy and never has been one. The word “democracy” means “government by the people”, not “government by elected officials”. And of course, it especially does not mean “arbitrary government by a secretive, unelected ‘deep state’ operating above and beyond the law without any real public accountability”, which would be a “cryptocracy” and the very antithesis of democracy, to my mind.
Which is why John said democratic republic rather than democracy.
That Republic works pretty good. While people were locked down in some U.S. States because of the covid pandemic, other States did not have lockdowns or mandatory mask-wearing requirements.
President Trump left it up to the State governments to work it out. Some States thought lockdowns were the way to go, and some didn’t, and each State got to implement the actions it thought best.
That’s the way a Republic works.
Call it whatever you like, Mark, but as far as I can see any so-called ‘republic’ that is actually governed by an alphabet-soup of quasi-governmental agencies who are acting without reference to the will of the people and as a law unto themselves is not truly ‘democratic’ in any meaningful sense of the word, because the people who comprise the republic – the ‘demos’ – are not actually governing but instead are being governed despotically by an unaccountable power-clique that has arrogated to itself the absolute right to rule. I think all that you really have there is a ‘DRINO’ – a Democratic Republic In Name Only.
“You would think people would finally start to catch on that the Mainstream media are a corrupt bunch of liars seeing as they have been wrong on just about every major issue for the last 7 years.”
They have been wrong a lot longer than that. 🙂
“I saw a poll yesterday showing Biden 2 points ahead!”
Which is within the margin of error.
It’s going to get worse for Biden as time goes along.
I’ll be surprised if he is the Democrat nominee after all Biden’s corruption is exposed. He’s already been connected to one bribe from Ukrainians. Joe was so dumb he went on television and bragged about getting the prosecutor investigating Hunter’s Ukrianian company fired. Now, we have evidence that Hunter called his father to assist in this matter and just a few days later, Joe Biden is in Ukraine delivering an ultimatum to the government to fire the prosecutor or Ukraine doesn’t get one billion dollars in U.S. aid.
I’m guessing this won’t be the last discovery we make about Joe Biden. Soon the House of Representatives will be comparing the money going to the Biden Crime Family with the timeline of policy decisions made by Joe Biden. I’m guessing again that this is not going to make Joe look good.
I think it is a good bet Joe will be impeached, and if the House turns up enough evidence of wrongdoing on his part, then even the Democrats in the Senate might vote to remove him from office.
My expectation is that Joe will resign for health reasons before the next election. If he does, the Republicans (being lilly-livered at heart, when it comes to the Mainstream Media) will probably let him off the hook as far as impeachment and removal are concerned.
But Joe Biden definitely needs a good public shaming about his criminal and traitorous activities, since he’s too old to go to jail. I don’t think Joe would like a public shaming. I think that’s the last thing he would want. He wants to maintain his image, but that’s not going to be possible, because it is a false image that is getting ready to be exposed for what it is.
Joe, you are a selfish, evil, criminal, traitorous human being. You have caused the death or displacement of literally millions of innocent people during your political career. You are now trying to divide and destroy the United States of America. Your reign of terror will come to an end as the truth comes out.
Such a dispicable, destructive man!
The chickens are coming home to roost now, Joe.
I still remember when Brandon was the designated slime squad for the marxo-democrats during the Senate confirmation hearings for Clarence Thomas, cemented in my mind what a despicable person Biden is.
They might also decided to replace Brandon with Kackles Kamala via the 25th amendment if he becomes too big of a liability for them.
“during the Senate confirmation hearings for Clarence Thomas”
Yes, that was the real Biden. The Nasty, Devisive one. His mask fell off for a little while and we got to see his true lack of character.
Someone gave you a downvote for accurately describing our great president.
More than one, ‘cept for that “accurate” part.
Oh look, blob is a Bidenista — what a surprise.
“Professor Christy, conceding a slight warming trend over the last 45 years, said July could be the warmest month on record based on global temperatures measured by satellites – “just edging out 1998” “
Just edging out, seem a bit of an understatement. It edged it out by 0.26°C.
Absolute temperature Bellman.
It’s an anomaly, but as it’s comparing the same month it should be the same relative change for absolute temperatures.
And on what principle do you say so? The warmest days of any summer can occur any month from May to September and maybe correlated over large regions. Each summer is similar but unique.
Because an anomlay is just an absolute temperature with a base value subtracted. This base value does not change from year to year so for any measurement over the part of the year, the difference between two anomalies will be the same as the difference between the two absolute values, as all you have done is subtract the same value from each.
Here is the graph of all months in absolute terms. July 2023 broke the previous record by 0.26 C.
Here is the 1991-2020 baseline.
1 263.18
2 263.27
3 263.43
4 263.84
5 264.45
6 265.10
7 265.42
8 265.23
9 264.64
10 263.95
11 263.41
12 263.19
Well, let’s look at the context here. Can you actually feel that difference? Maybe that’s what he meant. And this anomaly is clearly of natural origin.
That’s the whole point Walter –
0.26 of a degree C warmer “averaged” over a month, and we’re all supposed to get the vapors or curl up in a foetal position.
Lunacy, bedwetting of the first order.
Not only can I not “feel” the difference; I cannot “feel” the global average temperature at all. That’s moot though since it does not change the fact that UAH reported 266.06 K for July 2023.
His choice of words were poor, but I think that he was talking in the context of the rampant alarmism. The globe is supposedly ‘boiling’ according to the UN and the mainstream scientists. That claim is outrageous and a clear example of how this whole thing is just a political agenda based on spreading fear and emotion.
Can you post a link to an official UN document or from a mainstream scientists that says the globe has reached 100 C?
bee’swax is in parrot mode again…
Seems bsxxxx wasn’t listening to the head of the UN..
Can bsxxxx show where one single member of the climate cabal came out on the MSM and told Gutty he was an idiot and was speaking utter BS.?
I saw a mainstream scientist say the oceans are boiling this morning. It was a tongue-in-cheek dysphemism. Does that count?
SO WHAT. !!
Warming out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years..
What’s not to like !!
How can you know that if you don’t accept any temperature records that could be used to test the hypothesis.
I mean you’re so passionate of your rejection that you said it is “TOTALLY useless for comparison of temperature” and “IT CANNOT POSSIBLY GIVE A TRUE REPRESENTATION OF GLOABL TEMPERATURES OVER TIME” and you call anyone who says otherwise “clowns”, “crazy loons”, “lack comprehension and understanding”, “ignorant PAID parrot”, “total moron”, “rabid AGW zealot/nutter”, “most STUPID”, “deliberately IGNORANT”, “one brained-celled”, “mindless”, and “Flaming Nitwits”.
Empty rhetoric….
There are plenty of records of comparative temperatures.
Sorry you are ignorant of that fact.
Blinded by a faked ideology…you poor child. !
@bdgwx… now correct me if I am wrong… is not 273.15K = 0°C? Therefore your warmest month’s air temperature is below the freezing point of water….What’s Up With That?
First, it’s not my value. It’s from UAH. Second, that is correct. The warmest month in the UAH record is only -7 C…well below freezing. And that’s the global average.
The height at which UAH is taken its measurement. It’s the mean weighting is at about 700 mb or several kilometers above the surface.
YAWN.. !!!!
Are you really being paid to utter this crap ???.
Time to step and earn what they are paying for.
Wrong bdgwx… a pressure altitude of 700 mb is only 9878.4ft (3010.9m) that is most definitely not “several kilometers” above the Earth’s surface. And at that altitude… the temperature is:
-7°C
The weighting is centered at about 4 km. I would have called 3 km “several” as well though. But really my use of “several” is a nod to the fact that some of the weighting goes up to 10 km and higher. See [Spencer et al. 2016] for details.
-7 C is 266.15 K which is very close to what UAH reported for TLT in July 2023. See the data files here for details.
Your graph doesn’t look like the data from the official UAH website at https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/index.html
It appears that the graphed data from this URL centers the x-axis on June of the year, meaning the next point should be July. It shows 2016 ‘well above’ 2023. 2023 does indeed “just edge out” 1998 and 2020, however.
A quick search for the precision of the UAH data suggests that it is about +/-0.07 deg C [sigma multiplier not specified]. That should be included in such graphs so that the viewer can decide for themselves whether or not the difference between two points is something to get excited about. A difference of 0.26 is not something that would typically have been measurable in 1936.
“Your graph doesn’t look like the data from the official UAH website”
“A quick search for the precision of the UAH data suggests that it is about +/-0.07 deg C [sigma multiplier not specified]. That should be included in such graphs so that the viewer can decide for themselves whether or not the difference between two points is something to get excited about.”
That’s something you will have to take up with Spencer and Christie.
“A difference of 0.26 is not something that would typically have been measurable in 1936.”
Not with satellites, certainly. We’ll have to wait for the surface data – but I’ll be surprised if that doesn’t also show this July being a lot warmer than 1936 globally. Given that July 2022 was already 1°C warmer than July 1936, in the GISS records.
“but I’ll be surprised if that doesn’t also show this July…. “
With all the massive urban warming, airports, agenda-driven “adjustments” etc, I’d be amazed if it didn’t.
But everyone knows GISS is totally unrepresentative of actual “global” temperatures over time.
Anyone that thinks, given the way it is fabricated from heavily tainted data, it is a good measure of global temperatures over time….
…, is either rabid AGW zealot/nutter, and/or a non-thinking, scientifically incompetent nincompoo !
Here we go again. Denial, denial denial…
We got this constantly when surface temperature records were falling all over Europe, the SW USA and other regions last month.
“It wasn’t because of the warming trend, it was just because of this, or that, or the other…”
Yet even the most ‘skeptical’ of global surface temperature producers turns out its warmest month on record.
Deny that away.
Funny thing, when cold records are falling, you are amongst the first to declare that they mean nothing.
TFN what is so hard to understand that most surface stations have undergone a change in surroundings leading to a dataset that is unfit for detecting climate? I’m actually curious on what your thought process is on this.
Only person in DENIAL here is you.
UHI effects are absolutely PROVABLE.
Do you DENY they exist and increase over time.. are you really that deep into DENIAL ?
Do you DENY that jet exhaust is very hot ???
Do you DENY that a lot of temperature data has been deliberately adjusted downwards in the past??
All these things are totally PROVABLE
Yet you DENY they even exist.
You are either the most STUPID and deliberately IGNORANT AGW cultist..
… or are deliberately trolling to seek attention.
It seems like if a “rabid AGW zealot/nutter” were running GISTEMP they would have “fabricated” a trend that was higher than the unadjusted trend. Instead, the adjustments cause the overall warming trend to be lower than it would have been otherwise. Maybe each is a “non-thinking, scientifically incompetent nincompoo” since they adjusted the overall warming trend down?
Rubbish. !
a large proportion of sites have had the past adjusted downwards, always for spurious reason.
STOP LYING !!
The myth that never dies [1].
That is not global raw anything….
You really have been sucked in big time by the scam, haven’t you.
Most sites have had their past data adjusted downwards.. you know that.
So stop lying.
Why is the warming up to 1940 less steep then the raw?
It is because the older bucket measurements are biased low.
Same old same old.
Insist that 1936 was hotter than 2023, but dismiss any data that might be used to test this hypothesis. So how do you know 1936 was hotter? Feels? Hope?
That’s true, which is why I accepted the July 2023 value from your graph. However, there is no good reason for the older data to change.
If you can count from 1 to 7, which is two more than the fingers on one hand, or from 6 to 7 on the other hand, you can identify July in the graph at the link I provided. I wasn’t referring to the difference being the number of months for each year, but, rather, that the July high values for the two graphs are different. That should have been clear from the sentence following my hyperlink.
Did you copy the graph from Spencer & Cristy [I don’t see credits], or did you use Excel to generate the graph yourself? If the latter, then the responsibility for showing error bars is in your court.
“That’s true, which is why I accepted the July 2023 value from your graph.”
Dikd you miss Roy Spencer’s blog or it’s copy on WUWT where the actual July figure was given. You don’t have to rely on my graph, it’s stated in figures.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2023/08/uah-global-temperature-update-for-july-2023-0-64-deg-c
“However, there is no good reason for the older data to change.”
I’m not saying the older data changed. In fact I’m still using the older data, as the files haven’t been updated yet.
“I wasn’t referring to the difference being the number of months for each year, but, rather, that the July high values for the two graphs are different.”
Then I’ve really no idea what you are claiming. The graph in the UAH site does not show July 2023 and your counting may be off.
“Did you copy the graph from Spencer & Cristy [I don’t see credits], or did you use Excel to generate the graph yourself?”
It’s my graph based on the official UAH data.
“If the latter, then the responsibility for showing error bars is in your court.”
How do I do that when they refuse to publish the uncertainty?
For reference here’s the same data, with an assumed ±0.1°C uncertainty. (Hope it makes sense, I’m experimenting with different graph styles at the moment.)
And for laughs, here’s the same using kalomonte’s “plucked out of the air” uncertainties of ±1.4°C.
Clown!
1.4C is an estimate using 0.5°C for temperature uncertainty, which just happens to be the WMO specification for field thermometers. And “plucked out of the air” are your words, liar.
Once again, the inconvenient little fact that never penetrates the neutronium of your skull is that I’ve stated the real UAH uncertainty has never been quantified and is therefore unknown.
“Buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh it can’t be this big!” — bellcurvewhinerman
Cue your inane enemies files quotes (again) for yet another face-plant.
“And “plucked out of the air” are your words, liar.”
Cue more whining about enemy files, but I can’t resist.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/01/satellite-data-coolest-monthly-global-temperature-in-over-10-years/#comment-3545979
If I’d made it up I wouldn’t have said “air”.
Go ask Nitpick Nick, maybe he can explain to you what “estimate” and “unknown” mean.
Do you know what the word “liar” means?
So you weren’t done replying to me, as you claimed.
Got it.
I’ll reply to you as and when I see fit.
But when you call me a liar, and then try to wriggle out of it after it’s been demonstrated that you are the one lying, I will tend to call you out on it. Even if it means feeding an attention seeking troll.
Yet your standard “non-trollish” MO is to make up quotes out of thin air, then whine when they are called out.
Stop deflecting. You claimed you didn’t say it, I provided you the link to you saying it. A wise person would have just said, “oh sorry, I didn’t remember saying it.” A foolish person just keeps digging.
And then I demonstrated that your spin on that quote is totally dishonest (or that your are incapable of understanding common words in context, likely both). You ignored it of course.
“estimate”
“unknown”
Just keep digging.
And that you think U(T)=1.4C is such a heresy is another indication that you don’t know WTF you yap about.
I don’t think it’s heretical, just wrong.
I’ve been accused of heresy about UAH myself, and I disagree with Spencer and Christie on many things – including this post.
But that doesn’t mean I think you should just pull some meaningless uncertainty figure out of where ever you plucked it from and trash their life’s work without evidence.
I told you where it came from, you didn’t understand.
Not a surprise.
Remind me, as I don’t want to trawl through all my “enemy files”.
So far as I remember it, you’ve claimed variously that it was plucked out of the air, that it’s 0.5 * 2.8, and that it’s the square root of 2.
You didn’t understand.
Not a surprise.
It matters not because they are the same. What is at issue is the 2016 value (tied with 2020 for warmest recent years) are larger, for what I’m assuming is July, than you are showing.
As to 1998, the upper-bound is quite close to the lower-bound of 2023. When measurements are presented without error bars, one can waste time arguing about whether a fraction of a degree change is important or not.
Here are my records for the top ten July’s
2016 was 0.05°C cooler than 2020.
Here’s the link to the UAH data I use
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
It shows exactly the same figures as I use for those two months. 2016 was warm in the early part, but by June and July had cooled down some what.
/yawn/
Only a trendologist would care.
Clyde Spencer obviously cares as he’s the one saying the data was wrong.
Spencer and Christy think there is a good reason. They recalculate their adjustments to the data on every update. Each monthly update produces a different value for the past months as a result. Usually the change is small with only a couple dozen or so being noticeable in the 3 digit file and with only a few being noticeable in the 2 digit file.
Unfortunately we can’t. UAH does not publish their uncertainty metrics.
Just who is this “we?” Is this a tag-team effort?
Everyone as far as I know.
“Given that July 2022 was already 1°C warmer than July 1936, in the GISS records.”
That made me laugh. Comparing Hockey Stick “temperatures” is such a joke.
What would you guys do if you didn’t have the bastardized Hockey Stick temperature record? You wouldn’t have anything to talk about, would you.
Then you need to produce your own data that demonstrates July 1936 was warmer than 2023, globally for mean temperatures.
If you make a claim you need to provide the evidence, not just dismiss anything that contradicts the claim out of hand.
Well here’s some physical evidence that the 1930s were hotter than the 1910s
In Spitsbergen the open season at the coal port went from 3 months of the year before 1920 to over 7 months of the year in the late 1930s.
So there was obviously considerable warming in the Arctic over that period.
“Well here’s some physical evidence that the 1930s were hotter than the 1910s”
I’m sure it was. The question is if it was warmer than current temperatures.
I lay out evidence of Early Twentieth Century warming all the time. I’m sure you’ve seen them. But you want to ignore them because they don’t represent a “global” temperature.
Well, where do you think the temperature data bastardizers got their data?
They started out with the written surface temperature records which all show it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, and this applied to records from around the world.
So if the data mannipulators had stopped right there, then we would not be obsessing over CO2 because there would be no evidence the Earth is experiencing unprecedented warming due to CO2 or any other process.
So what is an underhanded climate change alarmist to do to create a CO2 crisis? They found a way to create the bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart by taking bogus sea surface temperatures and adding them to the land surface temperatures in such a way as to cool the past, which in turn makes the present appear to be overheating.
See charts below.
The real temperature profile of the Earth is represented by the U.S. regional chart, which shows it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today. This is the chart on the left.
And then the real temperature profile of the Earth represented by the U.S. chart, was changed into the “hotter and hotter and hotter” temperature profile of the bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart, on the right.
Now, all the alarmists point at the bogus Hockey Stick and ring the climate change alarm bell, claiming CO2 is causing unprecedented warming (when it’s just computer tricks). They couldn’t do that without bastardizing the temperature record.
The temperature data mannipulators ought to go to jail, considering the harm their lies and distortions have caused.
“I lay out evidence of Early Twentieth Century warming all the time.”
Nobody’s disputing there was warming over the early 20th century.
If you have any evidence that July 1936 was warmer than July 2023 please present it rather than going off on a tedious rant.
More whining?
Asking for evidence equals whining in karlo’s world.
Basically all unadjusted temperature data from the NH shows that the mid 1930s was a similar temperature to now.
South Africa.. the same..
I know you can only accept “fabrications” from the AGW priests,..
.. but even a brain-washed apostle like you must know that they are not real.
“Basically all unadjusted temperature data from the NH shows that the mid 1930s was a similar temperature to now.”
And another evidence free assertion.
For what it’s worth I’ve just been looking at the unadjusted (so not necessarily accurate) GHCN data. Looking only at stations which have data for July 1936 and July 2023.
Of these on average US stations were about 1.5°C cooler in 2023, but outside the USA stations were around 1.4°C warmer.
To put some more detail to that comment. I wanted to test the idea that stations around the world all showed 1936 as being warmer than today.
I downloaded the GHCN monthly unadjusted data. Unadjusted becasue I know people will just claim thew adjusted data is fake, but unadjusted means there may well b e big changes happening between 1936 and 2023 in individual stations.
I looked for all stations which have a monthly value both for July 1936 and July 2023. I suspect a lot of stations won’t have reported the July figure yet, so it will be be worth checking these figures later in the month.
None the less there was still 1774 stations with figures for both months. Roughly half of these are from the US.
I then looked at the difference between July 2023 and July 1936, so positive values mean it was warmer in 2023 and negative values means it was colder.
Just looking at the US stations there were 883, with an average difference of -1.54°C. So the US was on average hotter in 1936, as expected. There’s still a wide range of values, with a standard deviation of 3.3°C.
For the Rest of the World, I dropped one stations which was clearly in error, showing 2023 as being over 40°C warmer than 1936. That left 890 stations, and the average difference was +1.41°C. Outside the US on average temperatures are warmer than in 1936. Surprisingly there is a little less variation in the differences, with a standard deviation of 2.2°C.
Conclusion:
Whilst I’m skeptical about using unadjusted station data, there is evidence that whilst in the US it was hotter in July 1936 than 2023, outside the US there is evidence that it was warmer.
Attached is a frequency plot of stations against difference.
Repeating this comparing July 2022 to 1936, I get similar results, with the US stations on average being 0.96°C cooler in 2022, and the Rest of the World being on average 1.12°C warmer.
“rather than going off on a tedious rant” — bellcurvewhinerman
Where are seeing that?
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005JD006881
Unless I missed something that is talking about the trend uncertainty. The units on the 0.07 figure are K/decade.
I don’t have a rigorous proof for you, but my sense is that because the end-points in a trend are so influential in determining the slope of the line, that the end-points should give us an estimate of the uncertainty, particularly if de-trended.
They toss the individual variances in the rubbish bin, which could be used to calculate a real uncertainty.
At 0.07 C/decade points at 10, 20, 30, and 40 years after the startpoint could be biased by as much as 0.07 C, 0.14 C, 0.21 C, and 0.28 C respectively with odds of about 2.5%.
| … bit of an understatement. It edged it out by 0.26°C.
A fraction of a degree is a small margin indeed, since weather forecasts usually round off to the nearest degree.
Perhaps this unexpected rise in temperature is due to an unexpected change in the Earth’s albedo:
https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth
Yes, but this isn’t a weather forecast, it’s a measurement.
OMG.. the total lack of any sort of basic comprehension..
How do you manage to be a total moron with every post you make?
It can’t just be bad luck. !
Missed the point entirely. “is a big natural experiment”, “We’re changing the clouds”
| …isn’t a weather forecast, it’s a measurement.
Satellites do not measure temperatures, they infer them from microwave radiation emitted by oxygen molecules in the lower troposphere, using models which compute global averages over latitudes between 85S and 85N, with corrections for satellite drift, orbital decay and various calibration issues. So, these reconstructions can be viewed as spatial forecasts, because they use radiance models, to compute expected values of mean global temperatures.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset
“Satellites do not measure temperatures”
Which process to attempt to glean temperatures does?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Satellite_temperature_measurements
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microwave_Sounding_Unit_temperature_measurements
Weather does not equal climate. Period. Media pretends it does. Cliff Mass, who teaches meteorology, knows it doesn’t.
ERA5 shows that 2023 shattered the previous record for July. This is also the highest anomaly of any month in that dataset.
So your record only goes back to 1979?
It’s not my record. It comes from ERA5. ERA5 goes back to 1940. This plot only shows data since 1979 though.
Ok. Let me rephrase my question.
The data that has you so alarmed only goes back to 1979?
I think you have me confused with someone else. I’m not alarmed. The data in the graph goes back to 1979. The data in the dataset goes back to 1940.
Yet you are going on and on and on and on and on about it.
There is no way a data set using buoys and surface data has any meaning at all back to 1940 !
Stop your idiotic PANIC about a degree or so warming out of the coldest period in 10,000 years.
It makes you look like an ignorant PAID parrot. !
Actually that appears to be you, constant abuse with no facts.
Here is the data since 1940.
Again? How many hockey sticks do you own?
That’s what happens when 96% of weather stations are corrupted.
This is reanalysis so most of the observations come from satellites. The satellites UAH uses plus many others are assimilated by ERA.
It uses both ground based weather stations and ocean measurements. Are these the same ocean measurements used in this infamous study https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaa5632?
Yes. ERA assimilates buoy and ship observations too.
ship observations too.
No wonder it is such a mess !
And of course, reliable buoy measurements didn’t start until around 2004.
So you are talking arrant BS, yet again.
Describe the number of satellites in 1940?
That’s easy. Zero.
So you admit that most of that is urban warming from unfit-for-purpose surface sites, and “mad-up” non-data from ships and non-existent buoys.
OK !
So what. Notice your trend. A bit more than half a degree C in 40 years. You can get the same change by going up a bit or north/south a bit (depending on hemisphere—poleward). Your homework is to learn how many meters up or kilometers n/s comprises ‘a bit’. Maybe you will learn something from the homework.
That one has me stumped. I’ve never heard of a “bit” being used to measure distance. I googled for it and came up short. How many meters are in a bit?
In terms of temp lapse rate and latitudinal differences, the average answers are clear and easily discovered.. You did not do your easy homework. As expected. Ignoramous.
Are you asking what the typical elevation gain/loss is that would correspond with a change in temperature?
Again, the total lack of comprehension and understanding.
Whoever is paying you is wasting their money. !
For the record…I was giving Rud the benefit the doubt. See…when he said “Notice your trend. A bit more than half a degree C in 40 years. You can get the same change by going up a bit” I thought there is no way he is discussing an equivalence with a temperature change with height and instead assumed there must be some other interpretation.
A “bit” is approximately equivalent to a “smidgen” or a “hair.”
Which is bigger…a smidgen or a bit?
It depends on their self-assigned gender.
ROFLMAO….. do you really think surface sites haven’t changed A LOT since 1979.
ERA 5 is based on agenda-driven MODELS and data from changing surface sites and locations.
It is not even data, but a “reanalysis”… they can make it do what they want it to.
You CANNOT EVER use ever-changing surface sites to calculate a “global” change in temperature over time.
It is a scientific and mathematical idiocy to expect to do so.
No.
All global average datasets use models. In fact, even just taking a spot measurement of temperatures requires complex material, thermodynamic, and/or electrical models. This particular dataset gets most of its observations from satellites including but not limited to those that UAH uses.
Actually….because it’s reanalysis it forces the formed fields to comply with the laws of physics. The traditional surface datasets do not make any attempt to comply with the laws of physics. Most people consider this be an advantage of reanalysis over traditional datasets.
GISTEMP, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, NOAA, JMA, Nick Stokes, and many others are doing it so it is definitely possible. That’s moot here since ERA5 does not rely on surface stations (though it does assimilate their observations).
No.
Really? The global population in 1979 wa 4,365,582,8711. Now it is 8,045,311,447.
“and many others are doing it “
ROFLMAO..
All the fudges, adjustments, pretending, fabrication of data.
IT CANNOT POSSIBLY GIVE A TRUE REPRESENTATION OF GLOABL TEMPERATURES OVER TIME.
They can PRETEND that it does.. but that is meaningless in any sort of science.
You really have allowed yourself to be CONNED big time, haven’t you.
Fact is, that the data is so bad and so changable, that they could come up with WHATEVER THEY WANT TO COME UP WITH.. !
Yes really. My answer is no. It is no because I think I can present evidence showing that surface stations have changed lot since 1979.
And just because the world population nearly doubled doesn’t mean that surface sites haven’t changed a lot. In fact, the population change is one line of evidence I would have used to support my answer.
“surface stations have changed lot since 1979.”
So you finally agree that the data is TOTALLY USELESS for any real comparison of temperature of that time period.
Maybe you are finally getting there. !
No. I do not agree with that statement.
” I do not agree with that statement.”
Then you are a gullible idiot, with basically zero ability for rational thought.
The operative word is REAL.
Not imaginary and fabricated from BAD DATA.
You are purposefully being a moron. The United States represents about 45% (correct me if I’m wrong) of the surface record and Anthony showed last year how embarrassingly bad the National Weather Service is maintaining these sets.
The United States represents a little less than 2% of global surface area. Yeah, I read Watts’ paper from last year. He describes USHCN as being “substantially corrupted”, but thinks highly of USCRN calling it “an uncontaminated climate record”. Did you know that USHCN shows +0.38 F/decade of warming while USCRN shows +0.52 F/decade over the same period? [1] [2]
Is it unreasonable to conclude that they try to adjust it to match the USCRN? While you are right about the higher rate of warming, that only covers a very short period. Even you have to admit that the rate is biased by the giant El Niño. If I’m correct the reason it matches so well is because of pairwise homogenization. But how do you get the same results if most of the stations are supposedly corrupt? You have 1,218 stations, of which 1,169. You’d be lucky to find a perfect station untouched to use as the neighbor. Maybe that means the USCRN is being adjusted?
They do not. See [Menne & Williams 2009] for details on how it is actually done.
You are correct. Though it isn’t a perfect match. Because the USCRN trend is higher than USHCN-adj it is believed that the PHA is still leaving a cooling bias in the dataset. See [Hausfather et al. 2016] for details.
BTW…Anthony Watts makes no mention of PHA in his paper. Not mention whatsoever.
The ONI has averaged -0.1 over this period. It is biased, albeit minimally, by La Nina. Nevermind that ENSO effects USHCN as well.
It is because they are not actually corrupt. They just have biases like the time-of-observation change bias, instrument package change bias, station move bias, etc. PHA is a general algorithm for calibrating changepoints.
You will never find even a single station in the 120,000+ in the GHCN repository that is perfect. No station is perfect and there will never be a perfect station. Not even the USCRN stations are perfect.
It is not. You can download the archived data here. You can monitor them here in real-time.
Yep, what it means is that USCRN is controlling the “adjustments” and “fabrication” of the USA surface data in USHCN.
Hence, warming has essentially stopped.
They would look pretty stupid if there USHCN fabrications continued to get warmer, wouldn’t they. ! 😉
And anything from Zeke, you KNOW is twisted and scammed back the AGW meme, making his comments basically meaningless.
Yet you still gullibly fall for them.. Dumb !
Apparently you don’t know that a double negative in English is a positive!
Again, this does not look like the July temps from the UAH website. It appears that the problem may be a result of the ERA5 data being a re-analysis of 2m temperatures, while the UAH temperatures are for the lower troposphere, which was brought into the discussion by Bellman.
“shattered”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH
It’s a hockey stick! We’re alll gonna diiiiiiiiiieeeeee!
I love it when you do that! 🙂
Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaama!
“referring to the year of a great heatwave in North America that killed thousands.”
Take note, those who keep insisting the hotter summers are the better.
Fact is, documented in many countries, cold kills about 10x heat. Was a post on this here recently where Lancet faked the X axis by a factor of ten to minimize that reality by country. You need to do better,Bellman. Your stuff isn’t working with those with even minimal WUWT short term memory.
I have known this for over 30 years as it was well known then heck, I remember reading a few reports back in the late 1970’s that cold weather kills far more people than Hot weather does.
Bellman isn’t keeping up because he doesn’t remember things well as this was covered not long ago here.
“Fact is, documented in many countries, cold kills about 10x heat.”
I’m sure it does in many countries, but it’s not really relevant to the question of summer temperatures.
I think people often make simplistic assumptions about what “more people die of cold than of heat” means for a warming world. But I also think it’s a distraction becasue the issues of global warming are not mainly how many people will die of heat stroke.
But even just considering the number of deaths you can’t just assume that warming will mean fewer people die. It’s going to be much more complicated than that.
Bellboy, in total DENIAL that WARMING SAVES LIVES.
I believe warming saves lives, I also believe cooling saves lives. It depends on the circumstances.
Do you think writing everything in bold makes your argument more persuasive? Or does it make you look more desperate?
Again , trying to worm your way around the FACT that cold weather kills 10 to 20 times as many as hot weather
You are in DENIAL !
When you have to lie about what others are saying, you have already admitted that even you know you have lost the debate.
Nobody said warmer summers are better, they said warmer is better.
The difference between what they said and what you said they said, is that tose you disparage are aware that a year contains both a summer and a winter. They are also aware that way more people are killed by cold than by heat.
If you for once even tried to argue honestly, you wouldn’t be held in such low regard.
“Nobody said warmer summers are better, they said warmer is better.”
Lots of people have told me that warmer summers are better. E.g from this very post
UK summers are on par with Australian winters.
Big call, old cocky.
Oz covers tropics, temperate, alpine, desert.
Which parts of Oz are on par with UK summers?
Tassie?
Would you believe?
NSW, southern Queensland and most of the Centre?
But possibly not as wet.
Yeah, nah. Tassie’s summer is more like the UK summer.
p.s. Compare Coventry and Moree for June – August
Yes, and as you stated – not where you are.
So let’s accept that there are thousands of different summer conditions all over the world that different folks (and flora & fauna) experience according their preferences.
Which makes comparisons of “averaged temperatures” over any given month or more for all locations a totally irrelevant exercise.
Geddit?
The implication, which apparently went right over your head, is that the warmth of Summer is preferred over the cold of Winter.
I’m loving this slightly above average summer on the canadian prairie
Beautiful every night, sit out on the deck watching the lake until well past dark and only going in because I’m sleepy not because I’m cold.
So both, warm is good. And warm is better that cold.
But you keep splitting your hairs
Troll gotta troll.
He does this a lot…
Did I not read that hot spells in places unused to and unprepared are more deadly than in other places where hot weather is expected — say Tucson, AZ or Pasco, WA?
Reading “The Worst Hard Time … ” by Timothy Egan suggests to me many were unprepared. Dust was plentiful, water wasn’t. Lack of food, and malnutrition, contributed.
Surely, if the hot spike is true/real, it can’t be caused by CO2 emissions…as if the supposedly well mixed climate driver can switch itself on/off.
Yep, all these clowns going on and on and on about a 0.24C spike…
… are totally aware that it could not possibly have been caused by CO2 or any other human cause.
But they will try to milk, it like crazy loons, for their AGW agenda, anyway.
“ The 1930s are probably 8 to 10 or 12 times hotter ” Marc M says
In trying to make sense of this, if I assume some time in the 1930s there was a temperature of say 10 degrees warmer than average, and now a temperature is measured only 1 degree above that average, can I next say that 1930’s reading was 10 times hotter than the recent one?
Maybe someone can explain this better.
Let the temperature chart do the explaining. This U.S. chart (Hansen 1999) shows the range of temperatures.
Trendologist:
“Buh buh buh buh buh it’s not global!“
Trollologist:
“It was much hotter in 1936 but only if you ignore most of the globe.”
If you read my post above you will see it was also much hotter in the Arctic during the 1930s – with the US as well that’s quite a large area.
Yeah, the whole northern hemisphere.
US is less than 2% of global surface area.
Uk is about 0.05% of global surface area.
It is absolutely irrelevant. !
In 1936 “most of the globe” was not as well instrumented as the US.
This is an article about the global temperature for July, with a suggestion that in some way 19365 was globally hotter. If you don’t trust any data outside the USA, how can you possibly make that claim.
I think it’s pretty obvious that most of the globe was not as warm as the US in 1936. That’s why everyone was talking about how hot it was in the US at the time.
As I’ve said elsewhere, CET which some people here like to quote when it suits them, shows July 1936 as being 0.8°C cooler than July 2023, despite 2023 being regarded as cold. The Met Office shows a similar result for the UK. There were plenty of hot July’s in the UK during the 1930s, but 1936 was not one of them.
And you really think CET isn’t affected by Urban heat..?
Oh dearie me. ! The ignorance of a bellboy.
Trollology: literally, the study of trolls. Another bellperson face-plant.
“It was much hotter in 1936 but only if you ignore most of the globe.”
The surface data DOES ignore most of the globe and especially back in 1936. In 1936 the GISS only used 2946 weather stations and The US was by far the most represented (numerous) and accurate data set.
This means 50,348 km2 per one station.
Area of land on planet Earth: 148 326 000 km2
Based on June 2023 there are 5991 weather stations and that leaves 24,758 km2 per one station. That is no where near enough to measure the true temperature of the land, never mind the ocean too. Due to the huge gaps in the surface temperature a lot of tampering can be done to change to the narrative of what is required, not what the actual planet shows.
The United Kingdom for example is 242,495 square kilometres.
Therefore that is like just 9.79 stations in the UK to represent changes in surface temperature. It gets much worse because even though some areas are better than this like the US, some areas are much worse and require a lot of infilling. This leads to further tampering towards the narrative and increasingly becomes manufactured rather than observation data.
The warming of the Arctic trends like global temperature but on a larger scale.
This matched the previous data set of the US temperatures (Hansen 1999) not the tampered with version after.
Global temperatures have followed Arctic warming trends since the 1980’s and the reason why the 2000’s don’t match the 1930’s in the surface global data (manufactured) set is because of tampering.
This argument makes no sense. You are saying becasue you think there were not enough stations outside the US to get a good enough estimate of global temperatures, you should ignore all that data and only use the US data as a proxy for the rest of the world. If you don’t think one station is good enough to represent an area of 50,348 km, on earth can stations in the US represent the entire globe?
“Therefore that is like just 9.79 stations in the UK to represent changes in surface temperature.”
Yet some here swear that 2 or 3 stations in Central England can represent global changes.
“and the reason why the 2000’s don’t match the 1930’s in the surface global data (manufactured) set is because of tampering.”
I tested this in another comment against the adjusted monthly station data. For US stations July 2023 was on average colder than July 1936, by over 1°C, it was the other way round for stations outside the US.
I know there were not enough stations for global temperatures before the 1960’s. The southern Hemisphere data is non-existant for land and even much worse for the ocean. Many stations around the Northern Hemipshere show similar trends to that of the US. Global temperatures before the 1960’s are made up because there was essentially only Northern Hemisphire constructs.
Even Philip D. Jones part of the global data reconstruct, mentioned that there was only essentially Northern Hemisphere data and the rest was made up.
I never mentioned that only the US stations represent the whole planet.
Summer temperatures were warmer around the mid 1930’s and early 1940’s in Europe.
The 1930’s and 1940’s in July are being discussed below in this thread.
NOAA U.S. Average Temperature Anomaly Data Through July 2023 – Where’s the Crisis?
“Yet some here swear that 2 or 3 stations in Central England can represent global changes.”
This is not being used to say one global month is 0.1c warmer or cooler than the last. This requires a much larger coverage than what is in place now and was much worse during past history.
Most locations/regions do represent global temperature trends.
“The southern Hemisphere data is non-existant for land and even much worse for the ocean”
Checking GHCN 4, and there are over 600 stations with a complete monthly record for 1936 in the southern hemisphere..
And even if you think it’s impossible to estimate from that what temperatures were like in the SH, that just shows that the claim that globally it was warmer in July 1936 is “made up”.
The Climate Reanalyzer website does clarify, as of July 13, that it ‘should NOT be taken as “official” observational records‘ but it’s a little confusing because it says ‘Climate Reanalyzer is NOT a model‘. You have to read more to see that the ‘purpose of the interactive chart and maps on this page is to provide daily snapshots of temperature as estimated from the Climate Forecast System‘. Then you have to go to the NOAA website to see that the Climate Forecast System is a model. Its output, which the Reanalyzer turns into plots, is computer-generated estimates, not observational data.
The media and alarmists get all hot and bothered (heh) about claims of “hottest ever” and the trolls here make much of Dr. Roy Spencer’s recent post about July being the hottest in the UAH satellite record, as if it proves some point.
We all know Earth’s climate changes but it happens so slowly and almost imperceptibly that it’s no big deal. Humans long ago learned how to adapt to an astonishing range of climate zones from minus 60 C to over 40 C. That’s a 100 C temperature range (212 F) where humans can live just fine. The paltry 1-ish C that global average temperature has risen since 1850 is so small by comparison that it’s astonishing that anyone gets worked up about it. Even if it rises another couple degrees C, who cares? We just adapt. It’s easy. We experience regular daily temperature swings of 10 C and often (much) more and we just go out and work and play in it because changing temperature is a part of life.
What really matters, what makes agriculture and human survival problematic, is the excessive cold and the reduction in arable land during glacial periods. That’s the real climate crisis. But it will happen so slowly, over thousands of years, that we’ll easily adapt. Sometime in the distant future. For now, be happy and enjoy our balmy, beneficial climate. Unless you like being miserable and worrying about a non-crisis like climate change. But if it makes you happy to be miserable, by all means…
Another subject: please stop responding to the comments by the new trolls here. Clearly they have nothing better to do with their sad lives than wait to be first in line to say something stupid. Just give them a thumbs down and don’t respond, otherwise all the comments are dominated by a pointless back-and-forth with the trolls that’s often unrelated to the blog post. You won’t persuade the trolls and they won’t persuade you, so don’t waste your time. It’s frustrating to have to skip past the long troll-argument-and-response comments to get to some intelligent ones. Please resist your instinct to correct the trolls, if you can. It doesn’t do any good. Maybe they’ll get bored and shove off and bother other people.
The trolls will troll
It’s what they are paid to do
The local ones are so poor in quality, and so ignorant of any science or reality, that I really can’t imagine anyone wasting their money on them.
They should ask for a refund !
Mind you, someone pays for the “Extinction twerps” and “Just stop being cretins”.
Yep like Dale Vince and his eco electricity company in the UK, backer of those you mention and now trying to influence Labour policy with donations
16.1°C is the long term global average surface temperature of the oceans. Where sea ice freezes at -1.8°C. It seem the main stream treat sea as air and never gets lower than -1.8°C. On many occasions -60°C was observed on the Antarctic ice sheet. Yet 16.1°C average minimum is -1.8°C. Reality the global surface temperature peaked at 7.63°C as south of 60°S was below the -1.8°C with some areas below -60°C. Has intelligence got lost somewhere as it seems over 17°C global surface temperature is accepted without real thought.
There are no temperature proxies that have a resolution of just one month, one week or one day.
If you average one hot month with 12 or more it gets lost in the noise.
Temperature proxies based on a lower resolution show they were warmer back in the Holocene than now and ice cores showed a difference up to 5c between the Little Ice Age and the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO) being a warm period during roughly the interval 9,000 to 5,000 years BP, with a thermal maximum around 8000 years BP.
how indeed
This is a story from the BBC concerning farming
The subject and person doing the talking is ‘Izzi’ – from Norfolk = a neighbour of mine. ish
Quote:“She suggests “making hay while the sun shines”. But like many others, Izzi is restricted by agreements to improve biodiversity.
Farmers can sign up to receive grants in return for not harvesting before July to allow for plants to flower and set seed.
Izzi says she supports such schemes but thinks they should be more flexible in the future, adding if she’d been able to cut the hay in June she “wouldn’t be in this situation now”.
(my emphasis)
I know for an absolute fact that around here was fantastic hay-making weather in June.
You could have cut it and had it baled (and taken home) inside 5 days
On top of that, the grass would have been young and not had ‘set seed’ – thus the hay would be what the cows wanted to eat – leafy and full of sugar
But no, Government say you can only make the hay when they say so – and now see what’s happened.
i.e. Weather is going to turn it to mouldy shyte on top of which it will be pure cellulosic fibre – you’d be better off feeding the cows on cardboard
Too much Government.
Too much kindergarten-grade Junk Science
Too many fluffy bunny high ideals and Good Intentions
Re: The picture – I don’t understand the highlighted part – do her cows never go out into a field?
“The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.”
What confidence level is there in satellites measuring temperatures? How does it work, who invented the technology? Who owns the IP? What private companies, NGO’s governments fund the programs?
Who does the QC on the data? Genuinely independence on checking the numbers?
This is a very broad subject, well beyond what can be expressed in a single comment.
Not as much as there is in surface temperature records. The error margins are much higher in satellite. Yet, here at WUWT, the UAH data set is regarded as sacrosanct. Or it was until this month, anyway…
“The error margins are much higher in satellite.”
Utter and complete BS yet again.
Only a Flaming Nitwit would think you can take an ever-changing hodge-podge of heavily urban affected, airport data, and other unfit for purpose surface data, and get anything even remotely accurate over any time period.
One of the biggest lies I have seen on here, it’s up there with raw observations in the distance past of stations were lower than adjusted.
Try measuring Arctic/Antarctic sea ice area/extent with surface observations not satellite.
Try measuring SST’s with only surface measurements not satellite.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html
Lots of areas with no surface observations and ones that are there can be spread many hundreds of miles apart or more.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/stdata/
(this is not currently working for some reason)
Any how area of land: 148 326 000 km2
Based on about 7000 weather stations leaves 21,189 km2 per one station. That is no where near enough to measure the true temperature of the land, never mind the ocean too. Due to the huge gaps in the surface temperature a lot of tampering can be done to change to the narrative of what is required, not what the actual planet shows.
The United Kingdom for example is 242,495 square kilometres.
Therefore that is like just 11 stations in the UK to represent changes in temperature. It gets much worse because even though some areas are better than this like the US, some areas are much worse and require a lot of infilling. This leads to further tampering towards the narrative and increasingly becomes manufactured rather than data.
Story tip ?
Several countries in Europe were BELOW AVERAGE in July..
And not by a little bit.. often a whole degree C or more.!
Europe’s Colder-Than-Average (And Snowy) July; + Acclaimed Israeli Astrophysicist Says The Sun Drives Earth’s Climate, Not CO2 – Electroverse
Better tell Roy Spencer he got it all wrong then.
So actual surface data is no good now.
Which Irish village is missing its chief village idiot ?