With the release of the latest report by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the specter of solar radiation modification, or solar geoengineering, once again looms large. This report was mandated by Congress, the intent of which is to identify:
“critical knowledge gaps and scopes potential research areas that could improve understanding of risks and benefits posed by solar radiation modification.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/06/30/congressionally-mandated-report-on-solar-radiation-modification/
It is clear that this is simply another reflection of an overzealous approach to climate change.
The OSTP emphasizes that the report does not imply a policy change. The Biden-Harris Administration remains focused on reducing emissions and other traditional climate-related endeavors. Yet the mere investigation into solar radiation modification seems to signal a perceived need for dramatic intervention – a conclusion that is clearly not warranted.
To begin, the report acknowledges that:
“substantial knowledge gaps and uncertainties exist in many critical areas.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/06/30/congressionally-mandated-report-on-solar-radiation-modification/
This is telling. Even as this radical solution is contemplated, there are acknowledged significant gaps in our understanding of the climate and our ability to manipulate it on such a massive scale.
Furthermore, the report’s outlined research areas, such as determining climate and environmental impacts of solar radiation modification deployment and assessing potential societal outcomes and ecological consequences, underscore the speculative and uncertain nature of such drastic measures.
On top of this, it is worth noting that the current climate change narrative is driven largely by predictions based on Climate Models. Despite the aura of certainty that often surrounds these models they have been running hot for decades.
The decision to explore dramatic measures like solar radiation modification is more of the same type of ready, fire, aim, policy we’ve been seeing by ideologues. Given the uncertainties and knowledge gaps, our efforts would be better spent on understanding our climate more fully before contemplating such drastic steps.
Interestingly, the report also suggests “examining how research might be done in cooperation among international partners.” This raises another concern: the global politics of climate change. If we rush into solar radiation modification, who would control it? How would it be regulated? These are complex questions that we are ill-equipped to answer at this stage.
In sum, while the climate is always changing, the narrative of imminent catastrophe that is prompting discussions of radical solutions like solar radiation modification needs a serious reevaluation. We should be wary of fear-based science and ensure that our actions, whether in terms of policy or research, are driven by solid empirical evidence and understanding.
HT/Mark1W
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
“Substantial knowledge gaps”? Duuh!
What gaps? We know enough to spend multiple trillions of dollars on climate modification through GHG manipulations. If the knowledge is good enough for John “Swift Boat” Kerry it should be good enough for us commoners.
Lurch is one of those people who are useful for always being in the wrong on a broad spectrum of issues. If you find you are on the same side as Kerry, examine your choices.
Too bad I wasn’t on a Swift Boat on the Mekong River in Vietnam on one specific night. I was on a slowly-moving pig of an old landing craft looking for people for which to jump out and shoot when I was hit with shrapnel and unexploded pieces of a rocket-propelled grenade. At least the wounds pre-paid my VA healthcare.
I think John Kerry stubbed his toe over there and got a Purple Heart for it.
Your service and sacrifice is appreciated here, Dave.
G’Day Tom,
“… and got a Purple Heart for it.”
He got a total of three purple hearts, in a five month period. I believe three ‘wounds’ was an automatic “Get out of ‘Nam” ticket home.
(Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.)
John Kerry IS a ‘substantial knowledge gap’! US state secret’s aside, though, I don’t think SRM will alter the temperatures they are recording much at all – they seem to be measuring urban activity and UHI more than anything else.
How about substantial awareness gaps?
As in SRM as is currently being accomplished for humans being planting shade trees, putting up shades or canopies, putting light-reduction films on windows (aka “window tinting”), wearing sunglasses, etc., etc.
As in SRM as is currently being accomplished for certain plants being putting up shade netting (“shade cloth”) over them when they are outside, putting UV-blocking polycarbonate or polyethylene sheets (aka row covers) over them when they are outside (often seen used over sprouting strawberry fields), growing them in greenhouses or hot houses that have diffuse or opaque roofs, etc., etc.
Duh.
This is really strange. I was just watching the news and saw an excerpt of a speech by Pete Buttigeig (Bootyjudge) who was just talking about how Man cannot control the weather. Funny given how gung ho Dems are for Renewables to tame CC (aka control the weather)
He’s always pulling things out of his backside.
ROLF
Rolling on Laughing Floor?
no pun intended!
Oh I think the pun was intended, all right. Good one! But I think when it comes to little Petey’s butt, it’s his ‘husband’ pulling things out.
What a pathetic spectacle the Demonrats have made of a once great nation.
A total clown show, from top to bottom.
I see what you did there.
What will be the effect of lowering sunshine on agriculture?? Plants need, and thrive on, CO2, and sunshine. If this ridiculous proposal goes astray it might well lead to food unavailability, and maybe even starvation!!
The perfect speculation of what will man do with such ability–after all, what were the first uses of gunpowder and nuclear fission? What might Putin and Biden try to do to each other if this becomes real?
History is a pretty good teacher if one cares to read it.
If I remember correctly, individual trial by combat was once common in various places. Why not put Biden and Putin in the ring with a grand prize for the one left standing? Could that possibly make things worse?
wrong place
Yeah Global Warming (TM) (c) is clearly not performing as advertised.
Can we report it to the Consumer Protections authorities?
Where’s Ralph Nader when he’s needed?
Being 89 now, Darth Nader is probably more concerned with Local Colding living in Connecticut
What do you think the Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit was about?
Oh no, wrong direction. We should be coating the ice caps with carbon black to forestall the coming ice age!🥶🙄
That was so 1978.
Last month, I attended a local talk given by a scientist who is an advocate of solar radiation modification (SRM) as a means of keeping the rise in global mean temperature under +1.5C above pre-industrial.
From the Wikipedia article on this topic, there are three broad approaches to solar radiation modification a.k.a. solar geo-engineering:
— Stratospheric aerosol injection, or SAI, in which small particles of, for example, sulfur dioxide would be injected into the upper atmosphere.
— Marine cloud brightening (MCB), which would spray fine sea water to whiten clouds and thus increase cloud reflectivity.
— Cirrus cloud thinning (CCT), which is strictly not solar geo-engineering but shares many of the physical and especially governance characteristics as the other methods.
The scientist had these talking points to make:
— In his view, the true source of danger from global warming is the fast rate at which global mean temperature is increasing, not necessarily that it will break some arbitrary boundary in the future.
— As his thinking goes, the fast rate of increase in GMT doesn’t give enough time for local and global ecosystems to successfully adapt to rising temperatures in the way that they did in pre-industrial times.
— The world’s consumption of energy is growing. Moving any poor society anywhere on earth into a middle class lifestyle requires the consumption of 3000 kw-hours of electricity per person per year.
— China, India, and other third-world nations are committed to improving the economic lot of their citizens and will not be abandoning fossil fuels regardless of what we here in the west decide to do in pursuing Net Zero.
— SRM would be very effective in quickly reducing global mean temperature. The technology needed to implement SRM in the form of stratospheric aerosol injection exists today and could be quickly deployed in a few years.
— Although SRM is expensive and would need to be done indefinitely into the future, it is not nearly as expensive as the future cost of fully implementing Net Zero on a worldwide basis, something which will not be happening in any case.
— The Chinese are giving consideration to unilaterally pursuing SRM by injecting large quantities of small sulfur dioxide particles into the atmosphere above their own territory. These particles will be quickly dispersed over the whole of the earth just as happens when a major volcanic eruption occurs.
The recently published government report cited in the WUWT article above, Congressionally Mandated Report on Solar Radiation Modification, goes into great detail concerning the positives and negatives of SRM.
Reading the government report, one is immediately impressed by how many billions of dollars could be spent by government scientists and by academic institutions studying the possible impacts of solar geo-engineering.
OK …. Suppose the Chinese just say to the world, we are going forward with SRM on our own initiative; and if you don’t like it, just stuff it.
In that case, those same many billions of dollars will be spent anyway by government scientists and by academic institutions studying the worldwide impacts, if any, of what the Chinese actually do with SRM.
OMG, screw them…. it’s way too cold where I live …. all year, except for maybe 3 weeks in the summer where 2C warmer would be no big deal, and that goes for about 30 weeks of often wintery weather, and I only live 10% more than half way between the equator and the north pole in an agricultural breadbelt. These people are absolutely nuts and need to be moved to somewhere in Canada’s tundra for the safety of all mankind.
I think maybe under the tundra would be the prime choice.
Six feet under just about anywhere would suffice.
Sometimes I think about the middle of the melting arctic sea ice.
“The Chinese are giving consideration to unilaterally pursuing SRM by injecting large quantities of small sulfur dioxide particles into the atmosphere above their own territory.”
Why? Are they getting too much sun there in China?
I think there would be actual physical riots over politicians trying to dim the sun. It is such a crazy idea that noone takes it seriously at the present time, but if governments take it seriously in the future, I think the population is going to rebel over dimming the sun.
And, of course, there is no good reason for dimming the sun. There is no evidence we are experiencing unprecedented warming today, no matter how many times the climate alarmists make this unsupported claim, and there is no evidence that CO2 is a factor, either.
We are dealing with some really delusional people when dealing with people who are proposing to dim the sun. These people really believe in this delusional human-caused climate change stuff, because there is no money to be made dimming the sun, so the climate change liars and cheats are not pushing this non-money-making deal, only the super delusional who are crazed enough to think this is a good idea.
The opinion the scientist expressed as to why the Chinese might do it unilaterally was to supply cover for their own and for the third world’s continued reliance on fossil fuels for their energy needs.
China could also score points with those third world nations who have no desire to join in Net Zero, doing so as part of China’s long term plan to dominate and eventually control the world’s economy.
Oh I see the angle now. They will send up one balloon with five pounds of sulfate and proclaim that they are at Net Zero. Of course it would be even cheaper just to take some video of the next set of spy balloons and just say that they are for cooling the planet.
Think logically BB, the Chinese are not going to spend money on something that doesn’t enrich them. They would sell the machines that spew aerosols to moron politicians in the weak-minded West.
The scientist who gave the talk is convinced that the Chinese are giving serious consideration to doing SRM unilaterally on their own initiative. When I read the government report, I get a sense that the authors of the report think likewise, even if they don’t say so explicitly in their report.
The opinion the scientist expressed as to why the Chinese might do it unilaterally was to supply cover for their own and for the third world’s continued reliance on fossil fuels for their energy needs.
China could also score points with those third world nations who have no desire to join in Net Zero, doing so as part of China’s long term plan to dominate and eventually control the world’s economy.
The Chinese have to know that they can produce only so many wind turbines annually, only so many solar panels annually, and only so many batteries annually before the mining & mineral supply chain for the materials needed to produce those systems becomes overwhelmed.
In their calculations, it might be advantageous to take all the money they can from the Net Zero scam, while they can, while also scoring points with third world nations who would support the Chinese in their unilateral implementation of SRM.
At most it would be a PR scam. No way they would waste enough money to have a real effect. I can imagine them taking credit for the gap between model projections and reality.
If it is a Chinese PR scam — which it might well be — what is the purpose of the PR scam?
For example, could the threat of a unilateral implementation of SRM be used as a means of encouraging greater expenditures on renewable energy systems by western nations?
Or could the threat of unilateral SRM be used as a geopolitical extortion tactic of some kind?
The scientist who gave the talk I attended is convinced the Chinese are fully capable technologically of doing SRM on their own initiative, assuming they decide to spend the money and the time needed to do it.
The Chinese communists are focused on two things: making money, and holding on to power.
They know that their industry can only run on fossil fuel which essentially means coal. They depend on exports to keep that economy going.
It will soon enough reach a point where Western countries have to choose between exporting the remainder of their industry to China or imposing some kind of carbon tariffs that function as protectionist measures.
The only way to keep the game going business-as-usual is to come up with a “solution” that doesn’t actually require reducing CO2 emissions.
It’s also a way out for Western “leaders”. They don’t have to admit that ruinables can’t power modern society if suddenly they can pretend that there’s a technical fix. The fix can be calibrated to still require plenty of graft opportunities in subsidy farming.
Now it’s especially beneficial to have the CCP manage the process. They are experts at false statistics as well as cutting corners to save cost. It wouldn’t surprise me if they would simultaneously claim to disperse gigatons of aerosols without actually dispersing any while also convincing the weak-minded G-7 leaders to pay them for it.
Now why would a Western leader go along with that? Nine words: “Ten percent held by Hunter for The Big Guy”!
Now there’s an Idiocracy-approved solution. The rain will have what plants crave—electrolytes!
Report proper. 44 pages
CONGRESSIONALLY MANDATED RESEARCH PLAN AND AN INITIAL RESEARCH GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK RELATED TO SOLAR RADIATION MODIFICAT
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Congressionally-Mandated-Report-on-Solar-Radiation-Modification.pdf
Sounds like a script for a new James Bond movie.
On His Majesty’s Climate Mission
Dr! No!
The World is Not Enough for the Greenies
Sky is Falling
License to Kill the Plants
You forgot “A Quantum Of Sol”
Or Neal Stephenson’s recent “Termination Shock”.
[a rogue billionaire decides to inject sulfur into the atmosphere without
getting anyone’s permission. What could go wrong?]
“Termination Shock”
What’s most disturbing about that scenario is how plausible it sounds.
Climate derangement syndrom
CDS !
They really are deranged when they start thinking about dimming the sun.
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) is the biggest science hoax in human history, and it has led to fools thinking it is a good idea to block the sun from shining on the Earth.
The Crazy People (Leftists, of one stripe or another) are in charge. That’s why the world is so screwed up.
I heard a report on tv this morning with one person claiming that the dire energy situation in France and Europe is impovershing the populace and this is the underlying cause of the unrest in France. I don’t know if that is true or not, but it is something to consider. It is certainly a possiblity.
The climate can be cooled substantially and very cheaply: fix the models. There you are, all the cooling needed and all it cost was one little model change.
^^ this ^^
Exactly Mike — With one, ok maybe 2 taps of the keyboard. the alteration of a piece of computer code and — magically the planet’s climate becomes “normal” — Who knew?!
They don’t have to fix the models, just remove the past temperature adjustments that lowered ’em :<)
Children.. doing playground politics and science.
1/ The notion that Cirrus clouds ‘reflects heat’ is straight out the land of Tooth Faerie and Santa Claus
2/ Isn’t airborne Sulphur clouds/droplets what cause Acid Rain and probably lowlevel urban smog?
(Sulphur actually causes Global Greening)
Brace yourselves – UK Met Office is ‘Going To Declare’ later today
Headline:”Hottest June kills UK fish and threatens insects ##
Here’s how to do Solar Modification… hoyk some green (sewage fertilised) gunk out the river, hold it up against El Sol then drop it on yer gurlfrend.
Who said romance is dead – apart from Brandon & Bojo (who live the dream) and most women on this Earth, hence: No babies.
Romance died at the same time as Science died
(They both require clear heads, agile minds, good memory and not least, scrupulous honesty)
That’s basically what the Whitehouse is suggesting here innit
BBC story A most hideous and blatant confection of Paltering as you could wish for
(##) Ain’t that crazy, weren’t mosquitoes/malaria supposed to thrive in hotter climate
At the PBS web site https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/solar-geoengineering-controversial/ ,
the short description states “Scientists propose putting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect the sun’s rays. But will this have unintended consequences?”.
So, put some substantial quantity of real pollution way up high where it can reflect some sunlight! Sounds exciting! Why, some of the ‘mad scientists’, er, ‘noble researchers’, who like to develop bioweapons might want to look into this also..
But doesn’t carbon dioxide drive climate so why block out the sun as that cannot affect climate. /sarc
If these morons aren’t stopped they will create another “Year Without a Summer.” to refresh your memory https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/mount-tambora-and-year-without-summer
Any attempt by these idiots to put such harebrained schemes into practice will be considered by the rational part of humanity as a ‘casus belli’, a cause to go to war over. Nuclear, that is.
Let them try and modify the weather. They then take responsibility for all events following. Every tornado, hurricane, snow storm, forest fire, etc. is now owned by those who believe they are god.
I am fully confident that there will be no negative effects on the environment when all that crap floats back down to the ground. Governmental health agencies will protect us, just like they did with COVID and the vaccines.
I suggest the knuckle draggers in the WH, speak to their knuckle draggers in the nut zero Dept who are currently spending billions of taxpayers cash on solar farms which would no doubt be adversely affected by blotting the Sun out – stupid is as stupid does
Sounds like a variant on the chem-trails hoax…
To actually carry out this kind of atmospheric modification, all the gubment needs to do is declare an “EMERGENCY”. Then it can mandate untested experimental “countermeasures”. THis is what scares me.
This is likely a “justification tactic” in the making. Simply put, they propose an absurd solution for climate change. When that is finally declared impossible, then they propose something like banning all gasoline powered vehicles and justify it by saying – “Other proposed solutions are impossible so this is all we have left to stop climate change.”
As we near the probable end of the Holocene interglacial, the merry pranksters in the White House want to reduce solar insolence, thereby preventing an imaginary problem. No one understands why glacial cycles start but we definitely understand their effects.
Even if such an absurd scheme did not trigger glaciation, it would almost certainly negatively impact world food production, potentially killing millions. But, maybe that’s exactly what they want.
Story Tip:
Sunspot number is well above the official forecast and the uncertainty.
I don’t know what “official” means.
I went to spaceweather dot com and then to the above graphic. I’ve missed it, or it has been a long time since this topic was covered on WUWT.
Charles Rotter in this submission gives us a somewhat emotional (using phrases like
“specter”, “looms”, “overzealous”, “dramatic”, “radical”, “speculative”, and
“ready, fire, aim, policy”) view of Solar Radiation Modification [“SRM”], calling
it “Fear-Based Science”. The irrational fear he focuses on is what is driving the
multi-trillion-dollar carbon dioxide demonization campaign that is gripping our
world now. And, to be sure, that campaign is probably the single greatest
manifestation of “the madness of crowds” ever recorded in history. But the science
behind SRM, on the other hand, represents an UTTERLY different approach to the
“problem” of global warming. It is, in fact, as solid as any science ever was and
has no elements against which we need to preach fear. And it is wildly preferable
for cooling the Earth compared to that campaign. And to prove that point one only
need observe the hysterical campaign against SRM by those same carbon dioxide
demonizers. They hate it because even they can see how it puts their hysteria to
shame.
Admittedly, any SRM program will be run by government bureaucrats, which means it
will be run by idiots who will be extremely averse to shutting it down when it has
outgrown its usefulness. But that’s true of all government programs, bar none,
even the ones we must have to continue to exist (the police, the military, the
courts, etc.). This unfortunate consequence has nothing to do with the science
behind SRM.
Otherwise, the enormous advantages, safety, economy, and effectiveness of SRM in
cooling the globe can’t be overstated. And I say this not because I have done all
the calculations to prove the point, but because nature has already done all that
for us. No one can begin to count how many times we have seen the introduction of
a haze into the upper atmosphere (the form of SRM I am referring to here), under
the wildly uncontrolled aegis of the random forces of nature, resulting in the
relatively short-term, relatively benign (except in the worst, ten-million-year
circumstances, plant life did not die out for long, if at all) cooling of the Earth
below. If it worked under those uncontrolled conditions, never leading to positive
feedback and catastrophic, long-term effects, it could hardly be possible that man
couldn’t do a better job controlling the process using modern science.
You see, gravity is always at work. Whatever is keeping that haze up there
eventually succumbs to that gravity. And the haze, whatever it is, thus must
eventually fall back to Earth. And when it does, no more solar blocking. It’s
self-limiting.
Just a note. Ice Ages aren’t caused by the simple freezing of water when the
amount of sunlight energy falling on the Earth allegedly gets reduced overall.
Rather, they happen when the cycle of ice buildup in the Northern Hemisphere lasts
throughout a summer, causing ice eventually (over years) to accumulate so high that
it starts to flow south. This causes positive feedback in that the more area
covered by the flowing ice causes more sunlight to be reflected which causes still
more snow to fall and still more flowing ice coverage, and so on, “all the way
down”. Otherwise, the Northern Hemisphere getting more or less sunlight for a few
months of any year will always be balanced by the sunlight 6 months after that.
And then there would be no matching of astronomical cycles with the timing of the
ice ages, which, in fact, we do observe.
David Solan
Just how many billion years do we have before the sun outer atmosphere is a lot closer? Isn’t the outer solar atmosphere rather hot? Isn’t it best to be prepared?