By P Gosselin
Excerpts from EIKE here.
1. Alaska’s fourth cold winter in a row
Alaska was once seen as a beacon of hope in the AGW coal mine: but after four cold winters in a row, culminating in a historically cold winter season in 2022-23, The Last Climate Frontier has certainly lost that status – the catastrophists will now have to look elsewhere to bolster their narrative.
According to NOAA’s data, and despite the agency’s official forecasts that consistently heralded “warmer than average” seasons, the last four winters in Alaska have shown a strong cooling trend.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is also off its rocker. It predicted a “much milder than normal winter” for 2022-23 with below average snowfall. That was wrong on both fronts. Historic snowfall totals of more than 250 cm fell across much of Alaska, and Anchorage set a new record for leftover snow that stayed on the ground well into April.
April was also a historically cold month across Alaska, with an average temperature of -8.7 degrees Celsius, which is 5.5 degrees Celsius below the multi-decadal norm and the fourth coldest April in 99 years of NOAA records.
The snow has now continued into May, tumbling even more records.
There’s a Twitter video to go with it.
2. More and more new cold records “Down Under”
Icy polar air masses continue to dominate large parts of Australia – most recently in the west. Moreover, a continent-wide cold air outbreak from Antarctica is expected in the second half of this week.
Australia is cooling, and the proof is in measurements: For the past six years, it has been colder than average Down Under, and the list of cities that have recorded the coldest seasons since records began is growing (such as Brisbane last winter).
May 2023 continues this cooling trend, with the lowest May temperatures on record already recorded in a number of locations early in the month – including Cooma, Omeo, Bombala and Canberra. In Sydney last Sunday, the lowest temperature recorded at the start of autumn in 85 years (since 1938) was 7.1°C.
Over the weekend, it was the West’s turn to freeze.
Large parts of Western Australia just experienced the coldest May morning in at least two decades. On both Sunday and Monday morning, the temperature in Broome, for example, dropped to 11.5 °C, the lowest autumn reading since 1999.
3. May snow in Europe – even in Spain
Meteorological summer may be just around the corner, but Europe’s higher altitudes are seeing further and unusually heavy snowfall – and the media have been characteristically silent despite all their clamouring for “snowless winters”.
In the French Alps, Tignes and Les 2 Alpes received huge amounts of snow at the beginning of May, and accumulations have continued to rise since then. More recently, it was Austria’s turn to experience a late winter onset, with Hintertux, for example, reporting half a metre of new snow in the last few days alone.

4. The heavy May snow in Europe not limited to Alps
Large parts of Scandinavia have been buried in the recent off-season, as have the mountains of northern Spain, where several centimetres of snow have accumulated in recent days – following absurd MSM warmth reports of an early season heatwave.
Parts of the Iberian Peninsula have recently been hit by a polar cold snap that has led to “unusual snowfall” in La Raya, a mountainous region in the Principality of Asturias in northwestern Spain, Reuters reports.
See Twitter-Video.
5. The year without spring in the UK
The year 2023 has been cold and wet in the UK so far, and spring still refuses to start in mid-May.
Even mainstream meteorologists can’t explain why winter’s grim conditions are still dragging on, and are themselves shocked by “all the severe frosts we’ve had this spring”.
BBC meteorologist Tomasz Schafernaker said that people approach him in the street and ask when spring will finally arrive. What have we done to deserve this cold, gloomy weather dragging on for so long?
According to Schafernaker, the answer lies in the history books, particularly the weather conditions of the 1970s and 1980s.
The BBC meteorologist actually explains it in terms of global warming: “From time to time we revert to previous weather patterns, and that’s what we’re experiencing this year … But thanks largely to climate change, temperatures have been creeping up – snow has become less frequent, and spring has occasionally brought very warm weather. And we have got used to that.”
6.Surprising May snow in the Gulmarg region of Kashmir
The Indian region of Kashmir is still experiencing wintry conditions in June.
The ski resort of Gulmarg in the Kashmir Valley continues to surprise tourists with massive snowfall and freezing cold. In Apharwat, there is still 30 cm of snow on the slopes, attracting thousands of tourists every day.
“We are experiencing a winter season in the middle of summer; I did not expect such severe cold,” said one tourist.
In May, there was a dramatic change in the weather, and the higher elevations of the Kashmir Valley saw rare off-season snowfall. Temperatures also remain well below normal, allowing the ski season to be extended all around.
7. Frost hits Europe
In large parts of Europe it is freezing cold. What’s more, despite the mainstream’s cries of “No snow!”, the continent’s higher elevations have continued to receive copious amounts of late spring snow.
Much of central and eastern Europe has been exceptionally cold over the past few nights, and despite “The Science” predicting an impending devastating drought, rain has returned (in the form of heavy snowfall in the Alps and Pyrenees).
A recent Reuters article says there is little chance that the rains will address the underlying drought: “At this time of year we can only have spotty and localised storms that will not address the rainfall deficit,” said Jorge Olcina, professor of geographic analysis at the University of Alicante, a mouthpiece for the AGW and darling of the MSM.
Well, the rains are here, Olcina, and they are proving to be heavy, persistent and widespread – especially in the regions that “The Science” claims to be most concerned about: Spain, Portugal and southern France.
Getting back to the cold records: Low-lying areas of France and Germany have been experiencing frost lately, which was not in keeping with the season. In the small town of Wittingen (71 m above sea level), for example, a new May record of -1.6 °C was set. At least 16 low-lying stations across Germany, including the metropolis of Hanover, also experienced rare late frosts.
Snow is predicted for Scandinavia, the Alps and the Pyrenees into June – amazing!
8. Deadly snowstorm in Mongolia
Mongolia endured a brutal and deadly winter of 2022-23 that resulted in massive livestock losses and the suffering of 212,000 people, according to Save the Children. Now, in late spring, the country continues to be battered by deadly snowstorms.
Currently, 13 of Mongolia’s 21 provinces are experiencing a “dzud” – a natural phenomenon unique to Mongolia in which heavy snowfall and extreme cold lead to a shortage of grazing land for livestock. Between 1940 and 2015, official “dzud declarations” were made twice a decade. In recent years, however, dzuds have increased in frequency and now occur annually.
As with the increasing “cold waves” in India, the AGW party has no answer to this phenomenon.
As Xinhua reports, the return of winter in the country has also caused extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure such as roads and power lines.
The cold and snow have also killed many animals, NEMA added, contributing to the huge winter losses.
“The climate is very different from when I was a child,” Delgerbat said in early May. “When I was young, the snow had melted around this time and it was already spring, but now spring comes so late.”
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No matter what the weather actually does, expect “warmest year ever” reports.
Well we do have ‘warmest snow and ice ever’ still left in the bottom drawer skeptic.
FOR THE RECORD, WE PUBLISHED IN 2002:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I PUBLISHED ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
I UPDATED MY GLOBAL COOLING PREDICTION IN 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
[Some say global cooling started in Feb2016, but I prefer Feb2020.]
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA
British Undersecretary for Energy and Climate Change, 31Oct2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
See CorrectPredictions.ca and my papers listed therein for proof.
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary
https://energy-experts-international.com/
Do not forget, all this cold weather and snow is happening, while CO2 is increasing!
The written annals of the 1400s show, that is the way the LITTLE ICE AGE started all over the world.
And in Germany and other places, the GREENS are in denial, and continue to enact draconian measures to ensure the little folks freeze their n… off.
What in h… are these lapdog “reporters” going to write now?
I am sure they are eagerly awaiting any signs of warming, so they can unload load their evil bile on it like vultures
Texas history books describe that In the early 1800s Trinity Bay, a salt water body of water froze solid enough for people to walk across it – maybe when that occurs the climate hysteria will cease
And there will always be a drought somewhere, no matter how small or localized. The same with floods or heatwaves. [Don’t mention cold waves.]
…and doomsters-
SAID HANRAHAN by John O’Brien (1878 – 1952) (middlemiss.org)
Maybe we need an organization with the proper attitude.
We should replace NOAA with YESAA.
Don’t worry. If heat can cause cold then cold can cause heat. Just be patient….
“In Sydney last Sunday, the lowest temperature recorded at the start of autumn in 85 years (since 1938) was 7.1°C.”
This listing of transient weather events just gets silly. It is not the start of autumn, but the very end. The temperature on Sunday 28th was 6.7°C, which was indeed the coldest for the month. But not by much; on Mon 8th it was 7.1. Coldest ever for May was 4.4 °C.
“This listing of transient weather events just gets silly.”
I totally agree with you!
Just wondering though, when the mainstream “news” sources around the world – with a thousand times the eyeballs of WUWT post – write whole articles about transient weather events, do you also comment there to point out THEIR silliness?
pillageidiot, You are right that it doesn’t matter when the mass media confuses weather with climate. It is wrong to do that. So their conclusions are meaningless.
But Nick Stokes is right to point out that WUWT is making the same mistake here.
Two wrongs do not make a right.
Science will only get back on track if we rise above petty game-playing. And the West needs to get our science back on track.
Do not thoughtlessly disregard Nick Stokes,
Ok. I’ll think about it…then I’ll disregard old mate Nicholas. Old mate is a green progressive disciple of CAGW it’s as simple as that. He believes, truly believes.
Not sure why he comments in here, perhaps he’s on a crusade to convert the sceptics? Or perhaps he sees himself as a self appointed “ fact checker” for WUWT on behalf of the members of the church of climate.
He’s a bot or a masochist.
Gee, that never seems to concern you when ‘hottest eva!’ temperatures are touted.
Touted? Not at WUWT, surely. Maybe disputed, but they usually turn out to be accurate.
Which is not the case here. Record cold for Canberra, they say? Well, it was a chilly -5.4°C on Sunday 28th. But on 15 May 2011 it was -6.8°C.
Bombala? -5.7°C on Sunday But it was -7.1°C on 31 May 1965.
etc
All this comparing local transient data from now with historical data is just nonsense frankly. Apart from the basic fact that as we move forward in time the sample size gets bigger and thus the extreme values more likely to increase/decrease, there is the other factor, one Jennifer Marohasy and Anthony Watts make the case for in particular, the lack of consistency in the instrumentation and data quality over time. That is HI effect including very local effects, moving from mercury or similar thermometers to electronic sensors, manual reading at set times of day vs digical data moniyoring etc, etc.
Sorry mate but the data has v little integrity as far as long term comparison or trends are concerned. It will tell you gee its, cold, normal, hot today or yesterday but that is about it.
People like you have created a monster out of muck. in the same way that AI is perhaps more accurately described as FI (= Fake Intelligence), Climate Change is perhaps better described as Catastrophic Contrivance. In both cases the old adage of follow the money is best adhered to. and in both cases only FI’s buy into it….
Forgive my apparaent cynicism and lack of trust in stuff I have not personally double checked but thats just the instincts of a 40+ year career engineer.
PS Over said professionaal career, I have been fed enough sloppy or self serving data by clients or their agents to hone my BS/junk/fraud/dodgy detectors to a fine sensitivity. Being called a ‘denier’ for articulating any suspicion or even caution only confirms my suspicions. That particular term has a truly vile and vicious resonance and it is used quite deliberately as rhetorical acid by people whose case is commensurately as flimsy as the emperors new clothes. It is a very thin veneer to try and cover the comlete lack of kohonas to their self promoting assertions.
You’ve got that right. As a fellow engineer, if we get it wrong and use dodgy or falsified data, people die. Just like the falsified data used by the Man-made Climate Change freaks.
That Warmer Cold brought to you by Global Warmer-Colding
“This listing of transient weather events just gets silly. ”
Unless of course it supports the even sillier claim that we are having a “climate crisis”. Then such claims about “transient weather events”, which occurs nearly every day somewhere, goes by without your comment on how silly it is.
But won’t any reading below -10C be a new “record” – or rounded up to -10C? Standard BoM practice, I hear.
Happens only once in a few years, and not in May. But the relevant AWS are all alpine standard now.
You’re not saying that temperatures vary up & down somewhat over time from place to place are you Nick?
Geez, the models all have Temps just going up, up, up like a hockey stick blade.
What’s up with that?
“up, up, up like a hockey stick blade”
Reminds me- didn’t Al Gore, when presenting his movie- stand on some machine that raised him up, up and up? No wonder he thinks the oceans are boiling.
That was his patented sea level rise avoidance auto-lifting shoes
Canberra equal record cold morning from 24 years ago
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=7135
Tuggeranong (Isabella Plains) AWS Number: 70339 just recorded minus 6.1 degrees equal to 18th May 1999.
And against the growing Canberra urban heat island UHI.
“The year 2023 has been cold and wet in the UK so far, and spring still refuses to start in mid-May.”
Central England Temperatures compared with the 1991 – 2020 average
Jan: +0.5°C
Feb: +1.5°C
Mar: +0.3°C
Apr: -0.3°C
May: +0.6°C*
*Based on provisional data up to 27th May.
England and Wales Precipitation – Percentage of average
Jan: 104%
Feb: 23%
Mar: 210%
Apr: 122%
May: 69% (Up to 26th)
I’d say that March was the only month that was very wet, and April the only month that was slightly below average.
I suspect the perception that it’s been a cold spring is more to do with the fact we haven’t had any really hot days, rather than the fact it’s been unusually cold, combined with the fact that people remember the good springs in recent years and forget how often springs are cold and wet in the UK.
Sources:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html
For the UK as a whole the mean temperatures compared with the 1991 – 2020 average are
Jan: +0.5°C
Feb: +1.7°C
Mar: -0.0°C
Apr: -0.1°C
And for rain
Jan: 103%
Feb: 45%
Mar: 155%
Apr: 97%
By contrast here’s what 2021 looked like
Jan: -1.7°C
Feb: -0.0°C
Mar: +0.7°C
Apr: -2.2°C
May: -1.5°C
Jan: 115%
Feb: 110%
Mar: 102%
Apr: 29%
May: 171%
Averages of temperatures and rain are more or less bs.
An index of misery would be more valid
The UK is so poorly governed, the little people feel plenty of misery, because all their cake is being eaten by others
You mean that 21 and 23 are pretty much average.
Is the perception due to regional variations? The average numbers you cite must be correct, but there is also certainly a general perception at least among some that its an unusually cold and damp and late spring.
Schafernaker’s remarks are an example of the wonderfully contorted logic you get from the BBC and Guardian when trying to dismiss apparent counter examples. Summer last year was very hot and dry. That was not a reversion to anything, though it was no hotter and dryer than some previous summers. That was an example of the fire to come from global warming. This cool spring however, though equally unusual (ie not very), is dismissed as a reversion to an imaginary warming trend.
All we know is that this spring feels like springs of the seventies and eighties. To describe variation from unknown causes as ‘reversion’ assumes a trend which does not exist.
Paul Homewood often posts charts of UK historical temperatures. There is no trend, and there is a lot of variation. Its what you get from living on an island bordered by a continent on the east, a great ocean on the west, the Arctic to the north and a great desert to the south east. Weather systems form and blow variable weather over the country all the time, the jet stream meanders and gives rise to month long weather patterns. But on a long term perspective, there is no trend.
For every average quoted in this thread, do see one quotation of what the variance associated with that average actually is.
EVERY average has a variance associated with the distribution used to calculate the mean value, yet that is never quoted.
The 1991 – 2000 average quoted above has a variance. The value used to calculate the anomaly has a variance. When subtracting two random variables one adds the variance of each average. What do you think that variance might be?
Jim, sorry but I don’t understand this. Could you explain a bit more what you mean? Maybe more directly than the question?
See the phrase “The 1991 – 2000 average”? Do you see a variance quoted? Why not? Without knowing the variance/standard deviation, how do you judge whether the comparison of the two numbers have any meaning.
This doesn’t even address the calculation of anomalies where the subtraction of two random variables requires the variances to be added.
If I told you that a monthly temperature was 20°C ± 1.8°C as compared to a 30 year average of 19°C ± 1.2°C and that gives an anomaly of 1°C, what would you think the accuracy of the anomaly is.
“If I told you that a monthly temperature was 20°C ± 1.8°C as compared to a 30 year average of 19°C ± 1.2°C and that gives an anomaly of 1°C, what would you think the accuracy of the anomaly is.”
The problem is, you really don’t care about the variance of the data is answer a question of how accurate the anomaly is. You want to know the uncertainty of each.
What is the value of the anomaly? What is the variance of the anomaly. Simple numbers, simple answer.
Why don’t you work it out yourself, or explain what you actually want and let me do it for you.
Seeing as you like uncertainty based on daily values, as in that TN1900 example you keep banging on about, let me give some figures based on CET. (I don’t have daily figures for the MO data.)
Let’s start with the monthly base values for the period 1991-2020
I think the standard errors based on daily variance are a bit too small, due to the auto-correlation in daily figures, so lets compare this with using the variance in monthly values.
Less variance between monthly figures than daily of course, but more uncertainty given the greater independence of the data.
For the monthly values for this year I’ll stick to using daily figures, though again this raises the question I’ve asked before, do you really want to consider the uncertainty of the specific months in this way? What is the uncertainty here? Essentially we are looking at the range the monthly average might have been if the temperatures had been different. Rather than just accepting them for what they are.
Combining the SEMs in quadrature gives
I might try and do this better when I have time. I think it makes more sense to calculate the anomalies for individual days first. If you have any other requests let me know and maybe we can negotiate a fee.
OK, I was trying to make a much simpler and non-statistical point. I was just saying that given the UK’s location (in the path of weather systems moving west to east, and in between Atlantic Ocean, Continental Europe, the Arctic and down to the South East the Sahara) UK weather varies a lot.
I meant that if you live in a country in this geographical position you have to expect some very cool and wet summers, some very hot and dry ones, and within seasons you also have to expect a lot of different weathers too. So the way the media and Met Office got so excited about the summer of 2022 was borderline hysterical. You would expect to have the odd summer like this, as well as the odd cold and wet one.
Dave Andrews refers to the Mike Hulme posting
https://mikehulme.org/the-2022-uk-summer-in-long-term-perspective/
And Hulme has made the point properly documented. The only remarkable thing about summer 2022 was two days in July which were very hot indeed. But the summer was nothing to get excited about. There will be others like this, as well as others equally the other way in being cool and wet.
“For every average quoted in this thread, do see one quotation of what the variance associated with that average actually is.”
Variance of what? You keep asking for this better never say exactly what variance you want. There are lots of different things being averaged and they all have variance.
The second question then being why you want it. You never seem to understand that variance is not very meaningful as a figure – it’s just a means to an end. The value you actually want is the standard deviation, i.e. the square root of the variance. But that isn’t much use unless you know exactly what purpose you need it for.
Consider the base period for the month of April, that’s made up of 30 monthly values, and the standard deviation of those values will be a good indication of the spread of values you can expect for the month of April. That is it’s an indication of the distribution of the monthly value when viewed as a random variable. This is useful for determining if a given month is unusually warm or cold, or if the difference between two months is significant.
But if you want to talk about adding the variances when you calculate the anomaly, that’s not the variance you want. The base value is not one random month taken from that 30 year period. It’s an average of all 30 months. As I keep explaining, when you combine random variables to create an average, the variances are added then divided by square of the number of values. That results in the standard deviation of the average being the standard deviation of all the values divided by the square root of N. (You know, the standard error of the mean.) That indicates the spread of the random variable that is the 30 year mean.
To put some figures on this, for the Met Office monthly April TMean values from 1991 – 2020.
The mean is 7.88 °C
The variance is 1.19 °C²
The standard deviation is 1.09 °C
The standard error of the mean is 0.20 °C
At 7.8 °C, I would say that this April was quite average, whereas at 5.7°C April 2021 was very cold. It was 2 standard deviations below the 1991-2020 average, and in fact colder (by 0.5°C) than any actual April during that base period.
If you want to know the uncertainty of the monthly values based on the daily averages, here’s the data for CET 2023, using the daily CET figures (May only has 28 days).
All values are in °C apart from Var which is in °C².
I think the most interesting point is the lack of variability during the last couple of months. As I suggested in my first post, I think one reason for the supposed coldness of this spring is that there haven’t been any really hot days.
“””””Variance of what? You keep asking for this better never say exactly what variance you want. There are lots of different things being averaged and they all have variance.”””””
Your question explains a lot.
What variance do I want? The variance of the data used to calculate the average you quote! An average is the central value of a DISTRIBUTION of data! You can’t have an average without also having a distribution of data surrounding that average. That distribution of data always has a variance.
The formula for variance is:
σ² = (Σ(X – μ)²) / N
(N = population data points)
σ² = (Σ(X – x_bar)²) / (n – 1)
(n = sample data points) & (x_bar = mean of the sample)
Whenever you quote an average, you should also quote the variance (or standard deviation) of the data used to calculate that average. Otherwise there is no way to tell how the data varies around the mean.
“Whenever you quote an average, you should also quote the variance (or standard deviation) of the data used to calculate that average.”
I rule you will be demanding is followed whenever a result you agree with is published, such as all the UAH averages used to construct the pause, or all those growing degree days you were insisting proved that maximum temperatures are not increasing.
“Otherwise there is no way to tell how the data varies around the mean.”
Why do you want to know how much it varies? It may be useful in some cases, but if your only concern is how are averages changing, the important question is what is the uncertainty of the average, not how much the data itself varies.
“The variance of the data used to calculate the average you quote!”
But in a simple monthly average of the UK there are multiple different averages going into make up that average. You never explain which ones you want. You could mean the monthly averages making up the average of the 30 year period – as I gave you below. Or you could mean the daily averages that made up each monthly average, or you could mean the variance of all the stations used to calculate the daily average, or you could mean all the temperatures included throughout the daily cycle.
All of this information is useful for specific purposes, it’s of little use if all you want to know is, was it a hot or cold month. This was the question I was trying to address, when it was claimed that so far the year had been cold.
‘Summer last year was hot and dry……….though it was no hotter and dryer than some previous summers’
“In the context of the last few centuries the summer 2022 in Central England/England and Wales was hot and dry. But it was not exceptionally so. The summers of 1976 and 1995 were both substantially hotter and drier”
https://mikehulme.org/the-2022-uk-summer-in-long-term-perspective/
Its a very nice explanation. When you compare this measured and balanced account to the hysterical tone of media coverage at the time…!
And as Hulme says, there was one and only one thing about 2022 that was really remarkable, and that was the high temp on two days in July, the 18th and 19th.
We must see how this summer turns out, but right now it seems to be a rather cooler spring than most would like.
From non-scientific instruments, not likely to be accurate to less than +/-2C, data averaged and then compared with other inaccurate, averaged numbers and we get fractions – and we are being asked to believe this comedy is real?
Yet you have no trouble believing that the UK Met Office in 2023 is using “non-scientific” instruments with +/- 2.0C accuracy. Are you believable?
Yes!
I have it on very good authority that England is always miserably wet:
Flanders and Swann
The Song of the Weather.
Well, I think it will take at least another 10 years of this to turn the tide of AGW sentiment.
The noisy majority are unfortunately pretty solidly indoctrinated.
Mother Nature’s way of counteracting the CAGW alarmists? Hope so!
The change will have to be political: it is not and never was about science.
Currently there is a cartel of Western Governments (plus cronies) propagating the lies and orchestrating the power and control grab over the Plebs, it will need one to break ranks. Let’s hope either Trump or DeSantis wins in 2024 – the European goons have their political capital deeply invested, whereas the two prospective Presidents have none invested.
It’s worth noting the April mean temperature anomaly in the Australian Climate Observation Reference Network was +0.01C compared to 1961-90 (max -0.05C, min +0.08C).
In Western Australia the April mean anomaly was -0.65C (max -0.84C, min -0.48C).
My own ongoing monitoring (http://www.waclimate.net/western-australia-temperatures.html) of Western Australia’s 30 oldest weather stations (v ACORN which has 25 WA stations) suggests that in the 12 months to April their average min was 0.35C warmer and average max 0.60C warmer than documented averages around the year 1900 (i.e. mean 0.47C warming).
Annual ACORN mean temperature anomalies show both Australia and Western Australia in 2022 were 0.50C above the 1961-90 average (thus 0.99C warmer than the
butcheredhomogenised average for 1910, not the 1.47C warming from 1910 to 2021 that the BoM continues to inaccurately claim).Re the last six years being colder than average Down Under, a 50/50 comparison of ACORN anomalies suggests a 0.012C mean temperature cooling between Mar 2012-Sep 2017 and Oct 2017-Apr 2023. UAH suggests a 0.003C lower troposphere cooling between those periods (see http://www.waclimate.net/australia-cooling.html).
Tiny, but Australia has still technically been cooling since March 2012.
Alternatively, ACORN anomalies have cooled 0.156C when averaged from Jan 2013-Jan 2018 to Feb 2018-Apr 2023, despite 2019 being the driest and hottest year on record.
ENSO is currently neutral and it’s likely El Nino will warm things up a bit in the next year or two. I hope so because I’m getting tired of all this chilly climate warming.
waclimate,
Thank you Chris.
I have yet to find a single mistake with your calculations, well done, I make a few. Geoff S
All caused by co2 according the consensus settled science that was revised just this afternoon, after which it is safely once again settled.
Was worried there.
The BOM mean maximum temperature anomaly maps for Australia do indicate colder than average temperatures for the past week and month over most of the continent particularly WA, 2C to 4C below average, that average being for the 1961 – 1990 reference period when an impending ice age was all the rage.
In a few days I will publish the UAH satellite data for the air over Australia.
I do not guess what it will show. I gave up trying to forecast the weather by age 15. The fundamental reason why I gave up remain today, that is, the factors affecting the weather were unpredictable in the common use of that word. Geoff S
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202305281200&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202306071200
Water levels in Southern Europe/Mediterranean are going up. Let’s hope wildfires won’t.
Lake Garda:
https://www.laghi.net/homepage.aspx?tab=3&subtab=2&idlago=5
Alarmistic media was anticipating otherwise.
Southern Europe braces for climate change-fuelled summer of drought
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/southern-europe-braces-climate-change-fuelled-summer-drought-2023-05-17/
…
Situation at the end of April.
Lake Garda at its lowest water level since 1953
http://www.italianinsider.it/?q=node/11808
“…
The lake, the largest in Italy and bordering with the regions of Lombardy and Veneto and the autonomous province of Trento, has fallen to just 45.8 cm above the hydrometric zero, the elevation above mean sea level established as a conventional reference for this basin.
…”
Hydropower production in Spain and Portugal has rebounded after an extreme drought last year and would continue to improve thanks to wet forecasts, experts told Montel this week.
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1501371/iberian-hydro-output-rebounds-as-drought-ends–experts
Darn it, these weather variations are just so variable. Let us hope intelligent people don’t start using the term ‘Climate’ when they are actually talking about weather.
Still having lovely sunny weather here in the UK midlands, the persistent cool breezes typical of this spring are still with us.
And unusually variable for the UK ‘thanks’ to climate change, because the UK traditionally has settled, predictable BBQ Summers with warm, dry, snowless Winters and typical warm, fluffy, flowers-that-bloom-in-the-Spring-Traa-laa Springtimes.
“Let us hope intelligent people don’t start using the term ‘Climate’ when they are actually talking about weather.”
It’s too late.
“The year 2023 has been cold and wet in the UK so far, and spring still refuses to start in mid-May” This must have been written on the 13th may, because on the 14th, it turned nice, and has been since with 20C plus temperatures and wall to wall sun since
A warming atmosphere means a cooling Earth
Both Jozef Stefan and Sadi Carnot (and others) say that nothing else can be true
Ah no no no you say – The Energy is absorbed – it doesn’t escape (as it used to)
Wrong – there are only 3 ways that Earth could become warmer than it previously was:
I think I’m safe in ruling out the sun, at least over the last few 100’s or 1,000’s of years
There are. seemingly, measurements that say Earth’s Albedo is in fact lower than it was so there’s a possibility and anyone, city dweller or countryperson can easily witness that.
But Earth does ultimately have to radiate away what comes in from El Sol – so – has Earth’s emissivity changed?
The Point I want to make here is that:
Increased atmospheric absorption (by greenhousegases) is NOT the same as reduced emissivity
A significant problem there is that ‘dark things’ tend to have high emissivities – so if Earth is getting darker, it’s emissivity will also rise.
i.e. Mutually cancelling
Has anyone thought about or answered the conundrum I found recently?
i.e. With 2 identical thermometers, 30 metres apart & both 6ft above identical ground conditions, why do they follow/record such different daily temperature trajectories as I found in my garden?
No local heating or air-con. No factory/industry/road/airport. As rural as you could hope for.
Why does the one under a tree record 3°C colder during a sunny day relative the one that’s out in the wide-open?
Then at night, the one under the (isolated single) tree runs 3°C warmer than the one in the wide-open?
why is that
here’s something interesting that I saw, which talked about the sun’s changes in solar magnetism over time. Let me know what you think:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/a_strong_el_nio_in_2023_not_likely.html
‘But thanks largely to climate change, temperatures have been creeping up…’
Climate is derived from averaged meteorological conditions over time. Climate change is an effect caused by a variation of those conditions over time.
An effect cannot be its own cause, but of course this is Climate Science
An effect can definitely be its own cause.
howlround?
Even mainstream meteorologists can’t explain why winter’s grim conditions are still dragging on, and are themselves shocked by “all the severe frosts we’ve had this spring”.
I recently travelled, over a period of 8 days (May 11 to May 18) through Somerset, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Hampshire. Throughout that period the weather was warm and completely dry. Most days I woke up to bright, clear skies and during the day the temperature (according to the thermometer in my car) was in the upper teens or lower twenties. It was in the lower twenties in North Yorkshire. Since I got back to Scotland on Monday May 22, apart from May 23, I have had warm, sunny days. Frosts? Not where I’ve been. Maybe it’s that “South-East England syndrome” that so many in the media suffer from.
With regard to Alaska and European cold temperatures, I have just noticed that the Danish Met Institute have just updated their Arctic Seasonal Anomaly Charts. They show a decline in arctic temperatures in all seasons by 2 C over the past six years. No surprise then, that the charts were not published for the last three years.
I wonder if the BBC will report on this, now that they are a department to check the accuracy of
their news coverage.
The Met Office say it is the UK’s 6th warmest May ever.
GB News on Twitter: “‘We’re at the sixth warmest May on record.’ Met Office Senior Operations Meteorologist Craig Snell says that the UK is ‘running quite warm for May’, as it will remain warm for Monday bank holiday. https://t.co/vncOquBtVv” / Twitter
There has only been two evenings so far this year I have been happy to have the heating off.
As usual every year for over 15 years already, rightwingers point out extreme winter weather somewhere as “evidence” that global warming isn’t happening. As if the rightwingers aren’t aware of the left claiming that global warming is worsening extreme weather including extreme temperature swings and severe including severe winter weather events? Didn’t even the more-centrist AP among the left-leaning part of the media repeat a claim of the severe winter weather in Texas February 2021 having been worsened by modern manmade climate change? Didn’t AP make such a claim despite weather records showing that severe winter weather in Texas has been becoming less of a problem in the past 130 years and especially after the 1980s?
There is the matter than in well over 90% of the winters in the US from the one of 1879-1880 onward, somewhere or multiple somewheres in the US got alltime snow records that still stand.
And meanwhile, even the global temperature dataset favored by rightwingers (UAH v6 TLT / Temperature Lower Troposphere) shows global warming is for real.
And what’s up with making hay from trends of 4 or 6 years in some or another little region of the world? Or for that matter, global temperature having flat linear trend for several years or even a decade or over a decade, when cherrypicking is done to ignore a multiple decades rising trend that has gone on enough to show that only a minority of it is from upswing of a set of multidecadal oscillations?
The claim was that this severe weather was caused by a more wavy jet stream. The very same ”wavier jet stream” that was said to have been caused by cold conditions in the 70’s
So much for that argument.
It shows? It ”shows” no such thing. Stop making shit up.
“And meanwhile, even the global temperature dataset favored by rightwingers (UAH v6 TLT / Temperature Lower Troposphere) shows global warming is for real.”
No, it does not. UAH covers on portion of a climate cycle. In our climate cycle, the Earth warms for a few decades and then it cools for a few decades and then the pattern repeats.
The UAH satellite came into service at the coolest part of the climate cycle, so it is no surprise that the weather has warmed for a few decades. The question is: Will the “cooling for a few decades” kick in this time around?
If it does, climate change alarmists and their argument are screwed.
And it’s kind of chilly this year, all over the world. Temperatures have flatlined and even declined in the face of increased CO2 amounts in the atmosphere. I wonder if that portends anything? You should wonder, too.
We live in Tucson, AZ, and according to our local power company, our high temps have been nearly 20F below last year and our lows about 15F below, for Oct’22-Mar’23. Last month was only about 10F below last year. My wife’s tomatoes, squash plants, and herbs love this weather.
So far, this is consistent with what Valentina Zharkova has predicted based on her theory of the interaction between the toroidal and poloidial magnetic fields on the the sun.
With respect for, and in full appreciation of Allan MacRae’s predictions as noted in his post under the very first comment to this article, I’m beginning to wonder if the recent (apparent) trending toward global cooling is as simple as explained and predicted by Prof. Carl-Otto Weiss and his collaborators in this graph that can be found at the 17m37s mark of his talk “Spectral Analysis of Climate Data shows: All Climate Change is Due to Natural Cycles”, linked at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-E5y9piHNU :
Facts? Facts? We don’t need no damn facts. We have our narrative
Now we have the figures for May, here’s a quick update on how this “cold and wet” UK spring did. (Spring here meaning March – May)
Temperature averages:
TMean: 8.4°C
TMax: 12.3°C
TMin: 4.4°C
Temperature Anomalies compared with the 1991 – 2020 base period:
TMean: +0.2°C
TMax: +0.3°C
TMin: +0.3°C
Totals:
Rain: 241mm
Sun: 446 hours
Percentage of 1991 – 2020 average
Rain: 106%
Sun: 98%
Overall I’d say it was a pretty average spring, by modern standards. But as so often with big variations. Wet and cloudy earlier on, dryer and sunnier towards the end.
And before anyone starts whining.
The variances for the base period were
TMean: 0.56 °C²
TMax: 0.82 °C²
TMin: 0.44 °C²
Rain: 1279 mm²
Sun: 2959 hr²
variance
TMean: 0.56 °C²
TMax: 0.82 °C²
TMin: 0.44 °C²
standard deviation
TMean: 0.75
TMax: 0.91
TMin: 0.66
anomaly
TMean: +0.2°C ±0.75
TMax: +0.3°C ±0.91
TMin: +0.3°C ±0.66
Please note the standard deviation is even larger. This only includes the baseline that you quoted. When subtracting random variables, variances add. You only quoted the baseline
The intervals are:
TMean: -0.55 to +0.95
TMax: – 0.61 to +1.21
TMin: -0.36 to +0.96
Pretty large uncertainty intervals. From this you can’t even determine the sign of the anomaly. That is why they need to be quoted.
“Please note the standard deviation is even larger.”
Who would have thought that taking the square root of a number less than 1 would make it bigger. Except they are not bigger, because they are different dimensions. On is measured in degrees the other in square degrees. It’s like saying the length of a square is bigger than the area you just can’t make that comparison.
As I keep telling you, the variance is of no human use.
TMean: +0.2°C ±0.75
Meaningless. The standard deviation is for the base line, not the anomaly. The standard deviation of the seasonal values just tell you the deviation of the seasonal values. If I was to choose one year at random and subtract it from this month, then the ±0.75 might have some meaning.
But I’m subtracting the average of all 30 springs. The deviation in that average is the old 0.75 / √30 ≃ 0.14.
“From this you can’t even determine the sign of the anomaly. That is why they need to be quoted.”
As I said, it was close to average – you could say not significantly warmer than an arbitrary 30 year period. Which was my point – the claim that it’s been a cold and wet start to the year is not justified by the data.
Nope. You are subtracting TWO random variables. Each of those random variables have both a mean and a variance of DATA surrounding those means. You can spin it all you want but that is the case.
Dividing σ by the √30 is not a valid statistical calculation for standard deviation. The formula for variance of the data surrounding a mean is:
σ² = (1/N)Σ(xᵢ – μ)²
Standard Deviation is:
σ = √σ²
Dividing σ by the √size of samples only gives you an SEM. The SEM only tells you how close the estimated mean is to the population mean. It DOES NOT tell you the Standard Deviation of the data surrounding the mean.
If you wish to use √size of a sample, then you should use the procedure outlined in TN 1900 to obtain an expanded standard experimental uncertainty.
0.75 / √30 = 0.137
t factor for DoF = 29 => 2.045
0.137 • 2.045 = 0.28
Tmean -> +0.2°C ±0.28 @95%
Interval is:
-0.08 to +0.48
You still can’t even determine the sign, and the deviation is larger than the mean.
Are you still going about this here? Why not ask Spencer or Monckton to explain or the “variances” in their anomalies, and trends? Or don’t you care when you agree with the results?
“You are subtracting TWO random variables.”
Yes, but you need to understand what that randomness is and when it matters.
“Dividing σ by the √30 is not a valid statistical calculation for standard deviation.”
That’s why I call it the Standard Error of the Mean and not the standard deviation of the mean, to avoid this confusion.
“The formula for variance of the data surrounding a mean is”
Why do you feel the need to keep stating the formula? I know what the formula is, anybody with a rudimentary education in statistics should know what it is.
It would be far more useful if you tried to understand what it means, and when it useful.
“Dividing σ by the √size of samples only gives you an SEM.”
Good. Because that’s what I want when I’m treating the mean as a random variable.
“The SEM only tells you how close the estimated mean is to the population mean.”
Again, that’s good because it’s what we want to know if we are subtracting the mean from a value, and treating it as one of the random variables.
Again, when you subtract the mean of 30 months from a value, the randomness is not the same as the randomness of one monthly value, which is what the Standard Deviation is telling you.
“It DOES NOT tell you the Standard Deviation of the data surrounding the mean.”
Of course it doesn’t. We already know what that Standard Deviation is, because it’s what we used to estimate the SEM.
“If you wish to use √size of a sample, then you should use the procedure outlined in TN 1900”
You keep saying this as if TN1900 discovered the Student-T distribution. It was actually discovered by the furtively pseudonymous Student in 1908 (though I think it had been around for a few decades before then), and had been a well known technique for dealing with small sample sizes since then.
But I only quoted the standard error / deviation in my comment, as that’s all you asked for. If you want a confidence interval, then yes you should use the Student distribution, or a Monte Carlo method, which TN 1900 also recommends.
“You still can’t even determine the sign, and the deviation is larger than the mean.”
Well who’d have thought it? The 95% confidence interval is larger than the standard error.
You still don’t explain what point you think you are making , or why you are objecting to what I said. I’m saying this Spring was average. Pointing out that it wasn’t significantly different to the 1991-2020 base period is the point I’m making. It refutes the claim made in this article that it was a cold Spring.
That they don’t also post the variance or expanded experimental standard uncertainty is just more evidence of the lack of statistical rigor needed for scientific endeavors.
My point is that there are accepted standards for reporting measurement data. The GUM, TN 1900, books by Taylor, Bevington, and Possolo, NIH and NIST documents, etc. elucidate how to handle measurement uncertainty whether it be actual measurement uncertainty of single measurands or expanded experimental standard uncertainty in data. Climate science pointedly ignores measurement uncertainty requirements all other scientific endeavors follow.
Like it or not, I will continue to address these issues. When the word average or mean is used, the context is that multiple points of data were used to calculate the statistical central mean. To understand the mean, one must also know the spread of the data that is used to calculate it. Otherwise, you end up with the Sahara Desert and Calgary, Alberta having the same temperature mean but vastly different temperature ranges. That is the downfall of a global average anomaly as currently constituted. It is a meaningless concept due to the varying ranges used to calculate it.
As an engineer who was trained and had job requirements for accuracy in measurements, I will continue to regard simple averages that are used to expand measured resolutions as a joke.
“That they don’t also post the variance or expanded experimental standard uncertainty is just more evidence of the lack of statistical rigor needed for scientific endeavors.”
But you don’t complain to them. You spend every opportunity to argue the point with me every time I point out a claim is not supported by the data, but you never complain about any of the people here using these “lack of statistical rigor” arguments in the first place.
Since this discussion started we’ve had the monthly Roy Spencer UAH update, Monckton’s Pause, Monckton’s Reality Meter and claims about no warming in some selected country for some specific month using some carefully selected period. None of these mention uncertainty. None mention the variance which you seem to think is essential. Yet you have not challenged any of them. It’s almost as if you don’t mind a lack of statistical rigor, as long as you agree with the conclusions. Have you ever considered that you might have your own cognitive dissonance?
“The GUM, TN 1900, books by Taylor, Bevington, and Possolo, NIH and NIST documents, etc. elucidate how to handle measurement uncertainty whether it be actual measurement uncertainty of single measurands or expanded experimental standard uncertainty in data.”
And do any of them insist you must always quote the variance when reporting a mean? The GUM says to report the combined standard uncertainty, or the expanded uncertainty. Also to include documents that include all the workings, but I assume that’s not necessary every time you leave a comment on a blog post.
“Climate science pointedly ignores measurement uncertainty requirements all other scientific endeavors follow.”
Every global data set I know (with one noticeable exception) documents the uncertainty.
“Like it or not, I will continue to address these issues.”
Good. I find it quite amusing.