Essay by Eric Worrall
Last month the MET explained how global warming causes more intense dry periods. But University of Bristol now informs us extreme downpours will happen more often.
Intense downpours in the UK will increase due to climate change – new study
Published: March 8, 2023 3.58am AEDT
Elizabeth Kendon
Professor of Climate Science, University of BristolIn July 2021, Kew in London experienced a month’s rain in just three hours. Across the city, tube lines were suspended and stations closed as London experienced its wettest day in decades and flash floods broke out. Just under two weeks later, it happened again: intense downpours led to widespread disruption, including the flooding of two London hospitals.
Colleagues and I have created a new set of 100-year climate projections to more accurately assess the likelihood of heavy rain downpours like these over the coming years and decades. The short answer is climate change means these extreme downpours will happen more often in the UK – and be even more intense.
To generate these projections, we used the Met Office operational weather forecast model, but run on long climate timescales. This provided very detailed climate projections – for every 2.2km grid box over the UK, for every hour, for 100 years from 1981 to 2080. These are much more detailed than traditional climate projections and needed to be run as a series of 20-year simulations that were then stitched together. Even on the Met Office supercomputer, these still took about six months to run.
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Read more: https://theconversation.com/intense-downpours-in-the-uk-will-increase-due-to-climate-change-new-study-200385
Earlier this year the climate prophecy was a little different;
Climate change, drought and water security
Posted on 2 February, 2023 by Met Office Press Office
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Climate change and increasing heat drought events
In November 2022, the WMO published its first State of Global Water Resources report which assessed the effects of climate, environmental and societal change on water resources. At the time, WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said, “The impacts of climate change are often felt through water – more intense and frequent droughts, more extreme flooding, more erratic seasonal rainfall and accelerated melting of glaciers – with cascading effects on economies, ecosystems and all aspects of our daily lives. And yet, there is insufficient understanding of changes in the distribution, quantity, and quality of freshwater resources.”
As the climate continues to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, we are seeing increasingly hot, dry conditions in the UK and globally. 2022 has recently been confirmed as the hottest year on record for the UK with an annual average temperature of over 10°C, and this trend is projected to continue in the future. July 2022 saw the driest month since 1935 for England as a whole, and the driest on record for East Anglia, southeast and southern England, with the UK seeing just 56% of its average rainfall for the month. As a result, drought was declared by the Environment Agency in many parts of the UK in August 2022.
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Read more: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2023/02/02/climate-change-drought-and-water-security/
Don’t forget folks, settled science. Let us hope for Britain’s sake, the global warming caused more frequent intense rainfall cancels out the global warming driven increase in hot, dry conditions.
What’s that Climate like eh: Children just aren’t going to know what worms are
China
They look like Portuguese millipedes.
a.k.a. “train-stoppers”
This is what you get when you live and breathe bumper sticker slogans. It can be anything you say it is.
Yes Eric. And yesterday I posted this comment on Paul Homewood’s excellent article on a similar observation:
”Yes Paul, thank you. The other story doing the rounds in the Marxist organisation they call the BBC is the devastating DROUGHT in East Anglia…lowest rainfall in 30 years…climate change threatens farmers livelihoods…vegetable shortages looming…blah blah blah. Quite how the drought ties up with an increased risk of flood damage they have not managed to explain.
More seriously, the BBC remains the go-to ‘news’ organisation for most Brits and its coverage of climate change topics is shameful. Most viewers and listeners have no idea that there is a scientific debate about these issues because the BBC’s unbalanced approach is that everyone agrees that there is a climate emergency and if you don’t go along with the hysteria then you are a dreadful human being who doesn’t care about the earth.
Fortunately, as an experienced former journalist, I can see through editorial bias but the effect it has on people is shocking. I have conversations with apparently intelligent folk who believe the most incredible rubbish. They have never heard of Richard Lindzen and Will Happer (needless to say they and other sceptics are not allowed anywhere near the British public) and I appear to be alone among my friends and colleagues who actually study what is going on, read the facts and figures and ask awkward questions. Basically, the BBC has brainwashed Britain.”
A paper by Spraggs et al 2015 evaluated droughts in East of the UK and found that the most severe were 1854-60 and 1893-1907 and were characterised by contiguous dry winters and summers.
Don’t have a direct link but the paper is mentioned in the following
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6521
“…we expect periods of rapid change – with records being broken, some by a considerable margin – and periods when there is a pause, with no new records set.”
… thanks Nostradamus.
When they realise that making specific predictions is risky, they turn to covering the full range of weather including anything from frequent intense rainfall to increased frequency of droughts all driven by Global Warming.
The worst issue we face with climate change is the droughtflood which is second only to the heatcold we will experience as well.
1970 – 1979 it was “Global Cooling” What’s the big deal?
Met Office and IPCC circulation models predict drier UK summers with rising CO2 forcing via a positive influence on the NAO, but the summers have become on average wetter since 1995, due to low solar.
Here is an update on the UKs daily climate change.
Yesterday here in central England (West) we received 4 inches or 100 mm of constant global warming during the day. The climate changed around 1700 hrs and rain fell clearing the deposited global warming entirely. Overnight the return of global warming, has resulted in another white out condition with snow, sorry I mean global warming (sorry fell into old English there for a moment, sorry) again covering the landscape. Wetter global warming is expected later.
Stay tuned for more climate change updates….alternatively tune in to the BBC where you can enjoy Climate Alarm and climate change reports daily, with pretty pictures and wavy lines used to compliment the apocryphal scary stories.
You forgot to mention the lovely plastic looking amber warning areas that regularly show up 🙂
Can they predict the timing of the next “intense downpour” in the UK and on which part of the UK it will fall?
Can they predict how many times there will be instances of “intense downpour” in the UK in 2023?
Apparently the magic molecule has limitations.
https://tinyurl.com/45tfnfjw
“Higher temperatures and more moisture in the Arctic mean the region is greening up.”
This is from a study about arctic river meanderings. There is no mention of CO2 fertilization which apparently only greens the rest of the planet.
The headline to the article is also misleading. It is not related to the subject except by the word rivers.
I am not sure if this is bad scientific conclusion or just abhorrent science reporting.
A possible story tip.
I asked Dr Kendon why she chose RCP8.5