Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
For those who think that electric vehicles make a difference … think again.
The Department of Energy’s Argonne National Lab has just released a study showing that in 2021, US privately-owned plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) “saved about 690 million gallons of gasoline.”
But that is a huge exaggeration because fossil fuels provide 61% of the electricity in the US, and we have to include:
- the inefficiency of burning coal or natural gas to make electricity (around 45% or so)
- transmission losses (~ 5%),
- losses in the inverter to charge the battery (another ~5%).
… so less than a third of that apparent savings is a real reduction in fossil fuel use, the equivalent of maybe 230 million gallons.
The Argonne report also says that from 2010 to 2021, EVs have saved 2.5 billion gallons of gas. So let’s be generous and say that in 11 years, EVs have saved less than a third of that, the equivalent of about 750 million gallons of gas.
Now that sure sounds like a lot of gasoline, three-quarters of a billion gallons.
However, as always, a sense of perspective is required. The US uses about 370 million gallons of gas per day … so that’s only about two days’ worth of gas.
I say again. Over the last eleven years, electric vehicles in the US have saved Two. Days. Worth. Of. Gasoline.
Hmmm …
And how much has that cost?
Direct taxpayer subsidies for EVs have cost you and me $10 billion dollars to date, and we’re on the hook for more. The government just extended the EV subsidy until 2032 and removed the cap on the number of vehicles eligible for the subsidy.
It gets worse. The US government also just approved spending an additional $7.5 billion of taxpayer money on EV charging stations.
So to date, we’re spending TWENTY-THREE DOLLARS for each gallon of gasoline saved … economic suicide.
Who is benefitting from this lunatic waste of taxpayer money? The richest 20% of the US population, of course. Surely you don’t think the actions of the climate activists would benefit the poor?
According to research from the University of California at Berkeley, 90% of the tax credits accrue to America’s top income quintile. A May 2019 Congressional Research Service report found that 78% of the tax credit’s recipients had an adjusted gross income of $100,000 per year or more.
On top of that, we have to consider the fact that the $7,500 per electric vehicle subsidy is a tax credit, not a direct payment … so unless you’re paying more than $7,500 in Federal taxes, you don’t get the full credit. For lower-income people, this means they may only get a kilobuck or so. How upside-down is that? The richer you are, the larger the subsidy you get for buying a mostly fossil-powered sparky car! Say what?
It’s nothing but a money-transfer scam to benefit the wealthy. Lower and middle-class people are paying for the vanity-signaling EVs of doctors, CEOs, lawyers, and politicians.
And how well are the electric vehicles selling? Here’s how people think they are selling, compared to how they are actually selling.
Note that the electric car data in the graphic above (yellow/black line) is the same in both panels …
There’s a much larger problem with EVs, however—we’re rapidly running out of both the generation capacity and the grid capacity to recharge them. California can’t even keep the lights on, and our insane Governor’s response is to forbid selling gasoline-powered cars after 2035 …
… and meanwhile, Switzerland is already having to bite the EV bullet. If current European energy shortages continue, they plan to ban EVs from anything but “essential” journeys this winter …
Not only that, but going to a “net-zero” all-electric economy by 2050, as many people advocate, is economically, physically, and politically impossible. I discuss this in my post “Bright Green Impossibilities“.
The problem with electric vehicles is that they are a hugely expensive imaginary solution to an imaginary problem. There is no “climate crisis”, that’s just a lie to keep people scared and compliant. I go over the facts in my post “Where Is The Climate Emergency“. I’ve posted it all over the web, and no one has found a single flaw in it.
Unless we can stop the insane war on fossil fuels, it is going to bankrupt us all, driving energy costs through the roof, leaving low-income people shivering in the winter, and denying poor countries the energy they need to escape grinding poverty. For details about how this plays out down at the bottom of the economic ladder, see my post “We Have Met The 1%, And He Is Us“.
Grrrr …
w.
As Always: I ask that when you comment, you quote the exact words you’re discussing. This avoids endless misunderstandings as to what and who is being discussed.
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Only ten billion? I would have thought more.
Bravo Willis !!!
I appreciate the way that you summarize the issue and put into perspective – A. 2 days of gasoline saved; B. $23 cost per gallon saved.
However, it is unlikely that anyone in the Media will pick up the fact that taxpayers are paying $23 for every gallon of gasoline saved. I have found that the Media and the Climate Alarmists have no interest in facts that may be relevant to the decisions that are being made regarding Climate Change.
Not only is it only w days worth of gas/diesel, most of the power that is used to power electric cars is coming from natural gas or coal fired power plants.
It would have been more beneficial to offer people $5 for every litre saved. Even if this offer is rorted 4:1, the money spent wold still be more effective.
Would you accept $5 to walk a few kms?
Do you want proof that we need to elect far-fewer technically-illiterate politicians worldwide? Here in New Zealand, our ex-burger-bar helper Prime Minister has declared “no more petrol- or diesel-fuelled cars to be sold after 2035”, without any suggestion of proof of any cause or even the existence of that elusive “climate emergency”! I think she should be the first person to volunteer to cease emiting her own carbon dioxide output!
Lead by example?
Don’t be stupid.
One could give Jabcinda a carbon dioxide self collecting device (plastic Bag) complete with self adhesive to stop those annoying leaks
Good idea. But she needs two bags, one for each end.
And she needs another opaque bag over each one in case the first one breaks.
She can of course say that, because she will have long departed NZ politics by then. If she continues to follow her main, if not stated objective, the Mahuta family, and associated ethnic aristocrats will be firmly in charge – and I dont see them giving up their Mercedes, Bentleys etc.
“She can of course say that, because she will have long departed NZ politics by then”
Yes, a lot of things can happen between now and 2035.
My guess is Net Zero will be a thing of the past by then, if not sooner.
And see a competent dentist.
All, or just new ones? If all, sounds like a Government taking of value.
It isn’t only the numpty-economics. A man down the street has a Mini EV. He has a charger at the front of his house and as long as he can park outside his house he can charge up
And when he can’t? He runs a bog standard domestic extension cable to it
The whole thing is bonkers
If you live in the UK you might want to point that running an electric cable across a pavement is illegal.
I saw a car charging on the street recently in a neighborhood of single family homes with yards. They had an 80′ heavy cable running from the garage to the street.
I was baffled as to why they wouldn’t just charge the car in their driveway.
I only realized later that they are probably a multi-car family and charging the electric car in the driveway would block that route for extended periods of time and be a huge inconvenience.
(The other option I thought of, is that charging your electric car in the street with a conspicuous cable might be the ultimate in virtue signaling to your neighbors to demonstrate your superior morality!)
The possibility of spontaneous combustion would be a very good reason for charging well away from the house and driveway.
Tesla has never had a “spontaneous combustion” problem however
the Chevy Bolt has and GM still hasn’t fixed the problem according to this owner.
Angry Bolt Owner.
GM still recommends that you keep the Bolt out of a garage or any indoor parking!
Meanwhile: Tesla Vehicle Fire Data – 2012-2021
Which means that you are 11 times more likely to die in a fire from a vehicle filled with gasoline or diesel than a Tesla!
Statistically, Tesla Car Fires Are Less
In one of fires, the driver of the car didn’t know where the door handle was!
We have neighbors who charge their Teslas in their driveway with an extension cord running under the garage door. At least they use a heavy-duty cord.
Public health and safety issue running a live cable across a public footpath.
“Not only that, but going to a “net-zero” all-electric economy by 2050, as many people advocate, is economically, physically, and politically impossible.”
Let’s assume trying to get there at a faster than reasonable policy speed creates 1) a more volatile economy with more inflation-recession cycles and 2) higher long term interest rates to fund uncontrolled deficit spending and debt service. Both of these assumptions imply higher fossil fuel consumption as compensation for assaults on household prosperity–Families must work harder to stay in place without Latin American style inflation implosion while EVs remain out of reach or impractical. We also need to factor in multiple impacts such as we’re seeing today in Europe with declining competitiveness, rising utility bills, declining currency, and greater reliance on sovereign debt.
Even if it all gets reversed at a later date, industrial concerns are already planning to build up their EV-manufacturing capacity. Lots of money wasted if it becomes “oh, never mind”.
If you design your industrial plans on the continuation of a government subsidy, you deserve anything bad that happens.
Thanks for the breakdown, Willis!
It seems quite clear that the greatest benefactors of GangGreen and the EV scam are our wealthy elites and China! I can’t wait for little St. Nick to magically appear and explain to us ignoramuses how you are wrong and what “The Truth” actually is! That’s always good for a laugh or two.
“Unless we can stop the insane war on fossil fuels, it is going to bankrupt us all, driving energy costs through the roof, leaving low-income people shivering in the winter, and denying poor countries the energy they need to escape grinding poverty.”
Bankrupting, reducing living standards and reducing population are the objectives of the schemes. You have to realize that humans are a plague on a “beautiful planet”.
I think under certain circumstances EV’s make sense*.
They are used primarily for short trips of perhaps 50 miles or so a day (which eliminates ‘high mileage’ Tesla’s etc).Users have access to off road parking to charge them from a domestic source (45% of UK households don’t have off road parking).They are used in favourable, warm weather or the discharge is too high (even with Tesla’s etc.)They don’t spontaneously combust (in which case off road parking is desirable, see point 2.)The public charging network will evolve across the planet between now and 2035, when the petroleum industry took 120 years to evolve the reliable global network of gas stations.National electricity grids can be built to capacity by 2035, having taken 150 years or so to evolve to the parlous state they are in now.Tax regimes to mimic those imposed on ICE vehicles are introduced immediately to have EV’s compete on a level playing field with ICE vehicles.All politicians jump off a bridge.Unlike meekly complying to a covid jab, perceptibly, vehicular travel plays a vital and large part of our daily existence. I suspect resistance will be met in this ridiculous bureaucratic endeavour to have people conform to ideological nirvana.
*The list is by no means exhaustive.
What will happen to home and car fire insurance rates for EV owners after many EVs erupt into flames while being charged in a garage attached to a home or duplex apartment?
In other words, they don’t make sense.
Well, they do under certain, restricted circumstances.
We still have electric ‘Milk Floats’ which are vehicles run by early morning, door stop milk delivery services. They have a predictable, regular route which has limited contact with traffic. They reach only 20mph (roughly) but stop almost house by house so the delivery man can walk to the householders doorstep to leave a pre paid for bottle of milk (or more).
They are quiet, start and stop instantly, charge over 12 hours or so following the delivery period, have an open cab and a flatbed rear with no sides so goods can be accessed easily, and they are economical and emissions free.
But I wouldn’t drive one from London to Glasgow (400 miles or so) as I regularly do in an ICE vehicle.
The problem is that those “limited circumstances” would have to be the only thing you use a car for. Otherwise you will need two cars. One for “limited circumstances” and the other for the real world.
And the milk van very likely uses lead-acid batteries and not exotic expensive Li-etcetera.
Indeed they are.
Agreed.
Towards the end, I realized that /sarc was intended. Note, by the way, that we in the US had a “… reliable … network of gas stations” when I was a mere lad, 50 years ago. Didn’t tek 120 years at all. But, then, I suspect that you were being hyperbolic.
The only electric vehicles that make any sense to me are either Aurora AFX or Tyco brands!
I have fond memories of my toy electric train set way back in the late ’50s. It was a Lionel. I’m tempted to buy another one.
Back in my day I preferred American Flyers. They were much more natural with their 2 rail tracks. Lionel had 3 rail tracks :<)
Still wish I had the American Flyer Alco PA-1A and B diesels with the Santa Fe ‘warbonnet’ paint, plus the stainless-steel passenger cars. Beautiful trains!
There is another ‘tiny’ EV reality problem. There aren’t enough lithium and cobalt ore reserves to make the global fleet EV—even IF the grid could support it and the economics made sense, which they cannot and don’t.
And so far Tesla’s battery recycling efforts have succeeded (nevermind cost) in recovering the aluminum and copper and nickel but NOT the lithium or cobalt.
When you cannot get there from here it is best not to foolishly try. Which says something about Biden, Newsom, and Ahern.
Yes, it says, quite clearly I might ad, that they are all demented, and want all of US to join them in their insanity! Thanks, but NO THANKS!
EVs in Europe are likely to have a 10% uplift in purchase cost due to EU tariff changes in 2024 – if they are unaffordable rubbish now, they will be more so soon
Rud, the rest of us are just consigned to mass transit, bicycling, or walking.
And living in corralled communities such as Oxford City.
I read the Argonne National Lab report and nothing was mentioned about worldwide lithium and cobalt reserves or the costs of extraction.
It’s Dennis Moore Time!
All together now
🎶 🎶
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the land
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Without a merry band
He steals from the poor
And gives to the rich
Stupid bitch🎶
New Zealand version James Shaw
James Shaw, James Shaw
Riding through the land
James Shaw,James Shaw
Without a merry band
He steals from the poor
And gives to the rich
Stupid bitch
Thanks Monty Python
If the next wave of EV sales is for second or third cars in a household for novelty short trips, we will add wealth to insurance agents, govt. revenues, electricians, and utilities. They in turn will spend more on consumption including fossil fuel travel, road improvements, and more trucks. I think we’re in for a series of unforeseen impacts that don’t match policy bragging points.
Just a thought here. If we WERE able to end petroleum production, how would we then pave our roads? Or produce the MANY plastic products the world currently needs or even the very medicines that many of us certainly need? ALL of these things are made from petroleum!
If it’s not on the short and medium range advocacy roadmap or in political talking points, it does not exist and the silence will be reinforced by permanently biased media groups (NBC, NPR, etc.).
When I lived in Texas, there was no state income tax. The state received a payment for every barrel of oil pumped out of the ground (and I suspect, for every litre of natural gas). If the US ends petroleum production, then Texas will have to impose an income tax.
Also, in travels in the Carribean, we were told that the island received barges full of oil and gasoline, as they had no source on the island. (Yes, they were burning oil for electricity). And end to petroleum production is going to hurt.
Also, Juneau, Alaska, receives barges full of petroleum products to for its use. Gonna hurt.
The state could do what all of the food companies are doing now and simply make 45 gallon drums instead of 55 gallon drums. Shrink the package and charge the same. It’s the new progressive way to fight inflation!
Which is what generally occurs when government gets involved.
As per Milton Friedman, if the socialists ran North Africa, in 5 years there would be a shortage of sand
I think we’re in for a series of unforeseen impacts that don’t match policy bragging points.
Isnt that pretty much business as usual for our ruling class?
EV is a scam pure and simple since the numerous weaknesses of the industry are too well known to think this was ever a legitimate product for the masses that justified the “investment” where most of it benefits the rich while the rest of us gets poorer and poorer over time.
All this based on the climate scam they also pushing hard since that increases their power over you.
EVs aren’t for the masses. Never have been.
Just wait for the next round of cost saving, planned obsolescence dictates from the accountants overseeing the EV segment. Who needs door handles in an EV fire anyway. /sarc
It might be reasonable to replace door handles with ejection seats triggered automatically by a fire.
Yeah, and landing is optional, right?
I think gravity is a little more pervasive than that. Optional, not likely.
Softly, not probable.
Avoid tunnels with low ceilings
Willis –
Another way to look at this is the 20 million tons of CO2 allegedly “saved” by EVs through 2021 at a cost of over $10 billion comes to $500/metric ton. And, the $10 billion does not include state subsidies for vehicles, home/business charging stations, and highway chargers.
Would the next Jan. 6th protestors please make it worth their while spent incarcerated and prosecuted……..
As well hung for a sheep as a lamb.
Can you restate that, please?
Yeah, I was just thinking we need a translator.
Не могли бы следующие протестующие 6 января окупить потраченное в заключении и судебном преследовании…….. Так же хорошо повесили овцу, как ягненка.
If the Jan 6th protestors are going to get locked up for wandering about harmlessly, next time the might as well make it worth their while and actually rise up against the Biden government.
Well, I understood that perfectly.
Of course, the political prisoners didn’t completely realize that they were up against a junta, not politicians.
Can we get a credit on the editorial cartoon? Looks like Gary Varvel. I’m a big fan.
No clue. It didn’t have a name on it when I found it.
w.
Since you show that EV subsidies are not economic, why don’t the politicians spend even more to push EVs? Norway is spending about $10,000 per vehicle in tax breaks, subsidies and loss of carbon taxes to attain about 20% EVs in their active fleet. The US is a piker by comparison.
My point is, this is not about economics, it is about moral busy bodies. So why not go all in and just give every household an EV? Just because it is ruiness to the economy doesn’t sway moral busy bodies. For a mere $5T we could all have a free EV and feel morally justified.
Norway can afford these generous subsidies because of its fossil fuel exports. No irony there, then.
We should not be playing the CO2 scare-monger game, because CO2, methane, N2O have minimal influence on global warming.
See Appendix of URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/volkswagen-says-ev-battery-plants-practically-unviable-in-eu-due
The inconvenient truth is the 8-yr CO2 emissions of a high-efficiency gasoline vehicle that gets 35 mpg, per EPA, is about the same as of an EV with a 75 kWh battery (about the minimum required in cold New England climates), with an annual average of 0.32 kWh/mile, if one considers the:
1) Upstream CO2 from mining, ore refining, transport, battery pack assembly, vehicle assembly, transport to user.
2) Driving CO2, which depends on the New England grid slowly having less CO2/kWh
3) Disposal CO2, which would include hazardous waste disposal of at least the batteries of EVs
Would battery disposal be in Vermont, or would batteries be shipped to another state for disposal?
The useful service life of an EV battery is at most 8 years
In normal us, EVs should not be discharged below 20% and charged above 80%
On rare occasions, such as rare, a long trip with an EV, the discharge is allowed to be to 10 % and charge to 90%
The replacement cost of a 75 kWh battery is at least $15,000 to $20,000, including labor, with near-zero likelihood of the cost decreasing, because of high energy and materials costs and general inflation.
No one with any sanity would put a new battery in an 8-y old EV
Therefore, all EV and gasoline vehicle comparisons must be based on 8 years, even though the life of gasoline vehicles is at least 11 years.
Also, EVs are driven about 9000 miles/y, because of range limitations, whereas gasoline vehicles are driven about 12000 miles per year
Therefore, all EV and gasoline vehicle comparisons must be based on 8 y x 9000 miles/y = 72,000 miles, which would make it very difficult for EVs with 75 kWh batteries to have less LIFETIME CO2 than a 35 gpm gasoline vehicle.
NOTE: If you have not noticed, there has been near-zero wind and solar electricity from 1:00 am to about 9 am, on November 30, 2022, in New England.
I verified it by checking the ISO-NE Dashboard, Resource Mix Graph, in the morning.
https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts
What would power all these future heat pumps and EVs?
Resource/energy-poor Europe’s insanity of doing without plentiful, reliable LOW-COST Russian coal, oil, and nat gas, and relying on the very expensive, unreliable, weather-dependent, wind/solar/battery fantasy, was on display big time in 2021, well before the Ukraine events, and in 2022.
It will be keenly felt during the 2022/2023 winter, and future winters for at least the next 4 to 5 years.
Resource/energy-rich US should learn a lesson from Europe’s wind/solar/battery fantasy, instead of blindly following the Biden-dead-end, wind/solar/battery fantasy, by wasting a lot of money, that would be better spent on 100 new, 2,200 MW (2 units per site), zero-CO2, nuclear plants, to reliably power future heat pumps and EVs.
Most of the new plants would be located at existing nuclear plant sites to minimize cost of grid upgrades.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-biden-administration-s-offshore-wind-fantasy
It’s not about carbon dioxide, methane, greenhouse gasses or the climate. Let’s stop playing that game.
You are repeating my opening sentence
CO2 is a weak GW gas that becomes easily saturated at the frequency it absorbs energy.
The existing CO2 in the atmosphere, 412 ppm at present, is almost fully saturated, so that CO2, an enormous quantity, cannot absorb much more energy for GW.
Each year, humans adding more new CO2 to the atmosphere is only a few percent of the new CO2 added by nature
All of the new CO2 will very quickly become saturated as it absorbs energy
The new CO2 addition from all sources is about 3 ppm on top of the existing of 412 ppm, per MLO.
The human part of all sources is a few percent of 3 ppm
Should read “to reliably provide electricity.” Heat pumps are expensive and only practical in relatively warm climates, and EVs are worse-than-useless.
I have three heat pumps, with 6 outlets.
They work great for cooling
For heating, I turn them off at 15F and below, because they would cost more per hour than using my propane furnace; I measured the energy flows
EVs, mostly Teslas, are expensive virtue-signaling devices for higher-income folks
I only have one and no propane furnace – but my fireplace actually keeps things warm enough I don’t need to use it much anyway..
An open fireplace? Where in the US?
It has negative efficiency
Well it was efficient enough to keep us from freezing for 3 days without power in 15-30F weather a couple winters ago, so I’ll take it.
The average age of registered vehicles in the US is over 12 years old. That would be 1 1/2 EVs per ICEV.
Thank you
I w I’ll re vise my article
We are wintering in Florida. Plenty of EV’s. No doors, awning for shade, often seen with clubs in the back. Deep cycle lead acid batteries.
Yet just this morning got stuck behind one in the state park when the battery went flat on the EV ahead. All out to push it off the path.
Let’s play the rich-poor simulation game for another 15 years to see what happens.
1) policy push toward net zero will the inflationary
2) inflation will hurt the poor and middle class most
3) more frequent inflation-recession cycles will hurt career development, savings, and overall income attainment
4) periodic stimulus surges will further the inflation spiral while buying some elections
5) debt relief programs for utility bills, student debt, food subsidies, mortgage debt, renter debt, and credit card debt will only limit access unless the government also replaces private options in mass
6) free healthcare for all will be bottom up from increased poverty via Medicaid
7) Tax credit mining will be rampant as calls for higher tax rates on corporate and individual payers approaches 80 percent–this skews risk taking and diverts more resources in policy dead ends
8) The assault on savings of all types and property will be unstoppable in the great shaking called for by UN agencies to redistribute
To get a hands-on experience with an EV, I went to rent a Tesla 3. The rental place had a policy that you have to return the Tesla charged at 70% minimum. They did not have a manual, so I walked around the car several times and could not get in. A manager showed me how to open the door. Inside there was a nice interactive display. One menu item was “Charging”, but it did not show any percentage of charge (but it showed “43 miles”, probably where the percentage should be). There was a nice interactive manual how to use the car – but the inside of the car did not look like pictures in the manual. The manager came again, started the car, and the display showed a message LOW BATTERY in big red letters. That’s all my hands-on experience.
Another take on the data: 2.1 billion gallons of gas saved us 20 Mt of CO2 = 0.0026 ppm = 4 µK of warming. ))
This also means that to prevent 1 K of warming, we must spend 100 times the GDP of the United States.
And that’s STILL only a PURELY HYPOTHETICAL “prevention of warming, since CO2 has never been empirically shown to cause warming.
Not to mention warming is BENEFICIAL.
Warming is of course beneficial, but you cannot claim we have no proof for the CO2 being a greenhouse gas. Just look at the longwave radiation chart at the ToA – CO2 emissions have a much lower temperature.
“The problem with electric vehicles is that they are a hugely expensive imaginary solution to an imaginary problem.”
Or as I like to say, A solution that doesn’t work, for a problem that doesn’t exist.
aka…a solution looking for a problem. 🙂