From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
I wonder how these predictions worked out? (Answers tomorrow!!)
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Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.
Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections. “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3318239/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/arctic-ice-cap-in-death-spiral-xvwm398zpds
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There are a hundred such articles he could have chosen from. How in the world can so-called experts be so wrong?? It’s got NOTHING to do with their wrong-footed models and everything to do with lazy a$$ researching with so much free money being thrown around. It’s now the msm’s turn to realize this amazing cash cow!
They are saying “may be”, “could be”, so they are covered.
So many alleged scientists; such rejection of history, including most of the Holocene…
Instead of humbly avoiding limelight, the above alleged scientists adore being in the public eye.
When am I going to get the northwest passage I was promised???
Some people never learn. You don’t make predictions, especially not about about the future.
Historical data is fixed which means that an infinite number of models can be created which will perfectly replicate the data. For example, Fourier transforms and Taylor series are a couple of examples. For every correct model there are and infinite number of incorrect models and no effective way to prove a model is correct by using historic data.
The only way a model can be correct is by identifying a very well proven mechanism such as the laws of thermodynamics and using these to construct the model. This is why 3-D modeling used in mechanical engineering works. It’s based on well established and relatively simple physical laws.
There is no identified and well proven mechanism for the melting and freezing of polar ice. The Antarctic ice cover has been hitting new highs while the Arctic was hitting new lows even though both should be equally affected by the Earth’s orbit.
Also, basing any model on something like 20 years of data for a phenomenon that spans millions if not billions of years is really the height of stupidity.
Perhaps these scientists should check with the US Navy, who had submarines surface in water at the North Pole in both 1962 and 1987, for which they have photographic evidence.
Perhaps Griff, Simon, bdgwx and the other Climate Change True Believers would like to comment on this photo.
It is absolutely amazing that there are so many proclaimed leading scientists in their field, that were and continue to be so wrong. Time to be truthful. It has been too long.
predictions for ICE free are found in the ipcc reports
not newspapers.
2050 or so
The little ice age happened.