By P Gosselin
Like the WHO changed the definition of a “pandemic”, the DWD has changed the definition of a “heat wave”…all to falsely generate the sense of a crisis?
Repeat a lie often enough, and in no time the masses start believing it’s true. Probably few institutions know this better than Germany’s DWD national weather service.
In order to get people to believe more in runaway warming, they have to be led to believe that “heat waves” are occurring ever more often. Even though it’s been not an unusually hot summer here in Germany (yes, it’s been hot at times), all we hear on the media are news about heat wave after heat wave.
To allow this, it seems the DWD changed it’s definition of “heat wave” so that now any brief period of warm temperatures qualifies as one. What used to be defined as a period of 5 consecutive days with highs over 30°C, has been changed to a period of just three(!) consecutive days – with a high of 28°C or more. That’s all it takes, folks! It’s truly baffling that Florida could be so popular among retirees.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
Here’s what the DWD writes at its website (excerpt):
A heat wave is a multi-day period of unusually high thermal stress. A heat wave is an extreme event that can damage human health, ecosystems, and infrastructure. In our latitudes, heat waves often occur in connection with persistent summertime high-pressure conditions (high-pressure area).
Internationally, there is no uniform definition of the term heat wave. Definitions are often based on a combination of percentile-based thresholds (e.g. 98th percentile of daily maximum values and a minimum duration e.g. 3 days).
The following heat wave definition is used in the production of the “Climate Maps of Heat Waves” in the German Weather Service:
Individually for each grid point, a threshold value for each day – corresponding to the 98th percentile – is calculated from the daily temperature maxima of the reference period (1961-1990). To increase the database of 30 values (1961-1990), the 15 days before and after the date are also used, which increases the database to 930 values and also results in smoothing. If the current grid values of the temperature maximum are above this climate threshold and above 28 °C for 3 consecutive days or more, a heat wave is present for the marked area and period.
Heat waves pose a major risk to health, especially for the elderly and sick. For this reason, the German Weather Service uses its heat warning system to warn of days with high thermal stress on the basis of the felt temperature and a simulation model to calculate the heat stress indoors.”
It’s not clear when the DWD changed to this new, low-bar definition. The World Meteorological Organization defines a heat wave as five or more consecutive days of prolonged heat in which the daily maximum temperature is higher than the average maximum temperature by 5°C (9°F) or more.
But for the DWD, a regular warm summer weekend – when it’s just barely warm enough to swim in comfort in the daytime – now qualifies as “unusually high thermal stress”. Result: the media play along and keep reporting on “another heat wave” almost on weekly basis.
Heat wave after heat wave
If we take Berlin and apply the DWD’s new definition for the year 1992, for example, Germany’s capital in fact saw 7 heat waves that summer: May 21-23, June 2-5, June 27 – July 1, July 8-10, July 19-21, July 30 – August 3 and August 5-10. Yet, back then Germans were not bombarded by the media with news of heat waves. Back then it was: it’s summer, stupid!
And note how the DWD uses the ancient 1961-1990 reference period for comparison, a time when the mean temps were about a degree lower and all the talk was about global cooling and the next ice age. This is the trick used to justify 28°C as “unusually high thermal stress”. Never mind that days with highs in the upper 20s often come with nights with temps in mid teens that have people grabbing their jackets.
Not a super hot summer
Anecdotally, this year I can say it’s been a warm and pleasant summer here in northwestern Germany; it was certainly too dry. But I didn’t think it was “a scorcher” because so many evenings were too cool to sit outside without a jacket. Moreover, there was not a single night that I found it to be difficult to sleep. And during earlier hot German summers, I remember having the electric fan running in the office for days. This summer I never had to use it once.
It’s a bit like the WHO changing its definition of a “pandemic” so that authorities are now able to declare a crisis anytime a grippe breaks out.
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Here in calgary we now get a heat warning when it’s into the high 20’s Celsius
Which is ridiculous as we only get 6-8 weeks of summer.
It’s been beautiful recently, nice warm nights, allows me to sit outside as I contemplate the end of the world from my porch.
Every day I walk around watching the people trying to survive by crowding into patios to rehydrate as best as possible. Business is brisk.
Of course, Sunshine ski resort was opened for July 1 canada day weekend because there was lots of snow that late first time ever.
And now 7 bears killed recently, because it’s such a cold year the mountain berry crop sucks so they are coming low and getting hit by cars and trains.
Of course the media says it’s because climate change, of course.
No one told them that colder and snowier is just weather.
Vail ski resort in Colorado, as well, had the longest ski season in its history in 2022.
“…contemplate the end of the world from my porch.” is the nicest turn of phrase I’ve read in many months. Brilliant.
Any faction that needs redefine the meaning of words has defacto lost the argument.
And FYI, the US has been in the throes of a recession since January of 2022. Ignore all Progressive arguments to the contrary.
Let me see if I’ve got this straight. Heat waves are specific to a geography, ie. if it is so many degrees hotter for a given number of days, in the spot where I’ve elected to dwell, then that is a “heat wave” which is claimed to objectively demonstrate “man made global warming.” Remarkably, my local “heat wave” may occur at temperatures demonstrably lower than the (what’s the opposite of heat wave?) measured drop in temperatures (so many degrees cooler for a given number of days) at another point on the planet.
“Existential threat” climate change, however, is documented by recording and calculating a mystical annual temperature change across the entire planet.
So heat waves are indicative of “climate change” but geographically specific, and “climate change” is non-geographically specific, but rather across-the-planet homogenized, incredibly influenced by the selection/location of measuring points, and indicative of “climate change”?
I sense a massive double-standard.
You can’t beat age and experience like Horst-
Tough choices for Germany as coal power stations return to keep people warm this winter (msn.com)
It’s called winter Gretaheads. LOL.
For 8 of Australia’s bigger cities, some with daily temperature max and mins going back before 1870, I calculated the hottest heat wave each year The heat wave was taken to be the highest average of consecutive days 1, 3, 5, and 10 days duration, each year. I then sorted all years to get the Top 40 hottest waves as well as the full set showing each year. All results are of raw data for maximum daily temperature from the official BOM web site.
For illustration, I have chosen to display here the 5-day set for 8 stations, the Top 40 hottest.
There is no strong signal shown in the full set of these graphs, all 128 of them including the adjusted AGORN-SAT series from the BOM, to indicate that here, heatwaves have become hotter, longer or more frequent.
There are several alarmist papers that claim hotter, longer and more often, but they do not have the simple data purity of my exercise. They often start at more recent dates, the often use adjusted data and importantly for this topic, they rely upon special definitions of “heatwave”.
If there is no perceptible signal in the simple raw data, why do people torture it to make dramatic headlines.
Readers of WUWT should do this exercise for your own region or city. It is quite powerful evidence of the reality of what is happening. It is very easy on Excel, no programming skill or macros needed.
Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/eightbyfive.xlsx
I suppose it’s only a matter of time (probably next summer) before each “heat wave” gets its own name, like hurricanes and babies.