Last WH polar bears ashore even later than 2009 as Hudson Bay finally becomes ice-free

From Polar Bear Science

Dr. Susan Crockford

According to Andrew Derocher this morning, the last of his teams’ tagged polar bears have come ashore in Western Hudson Bay, in the last week of August. That makes two years out of the last three when the tagged WH bears came ashore as late, or later than, they had done in 2009 (a very cold year when they were onshore by about 20/21 August), something Derocher failed to mention during a CBC Radio interview also published today.

Don’t forget: this is the subpopulation that polar bear specialists use to model the future of all bears, everywhere in the Arctic but only use stale data from the 2000s because including more recent information would give a much more optimistic picture.

Meanwhile, no further reports from Churchill about problem bears: the last one issued was for the first week in August. Time will tell at freeze-up whether this will be yet another very good year for Western Hudson Bay bears.

Last bears to leave the ice

2020, at 22 August with a map dated 21 August (on the left) compared to 14 August the same year (note the emphasis on ‘unusual’ and the repetition of trend statistics up to 2014 — rather meaningless six years later — as is the reminder of a prediction that has failed to materialize, on top of the notation that this was only “one good year”):

2022, at 27 August with a map dated 26 August (no mention of “one good year doesen’t help much” or “coming ashore so late is unusual”, or that this date is even later than 2020):

Arctic sea ice conditions last week August

2020, 25 August [4.7mkm2]:

2022, 26 August [5.4mkm2]

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August 30, 2022 2:26 am

I’m still trying to figure out why polar bears are such good swimmers.
You’d never expect that attribute by looking at them.
Due diligence: I’m pro-seals and anti-polar bears

fretslider
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 30, 2022 2:41 am

I expect by that token that you could well be pro-flies and anti-spiders…

Oldseadog
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 30, 2022 2:56 am

Maybe they are good swimmers because they practice a lot. I doubt if they catch seals by swimming after them, though.

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Oldseadog
August 30, 2022 12:35 pm

Much the same reason for why the Inuit/Eskimos are excellent kayak builders and kayakers, and why they are good Whalers.

Reply to  Richard Greene
August 30, 2022 4:37 am

I thought similar re Newfoundland hounds, thinking ‘who’d want one of them?’ 1) big dog = big clean up 2) gotta be a pain to dry after wet weather, etc. Was put right by an owner of same. Yes, big craps but quick drying, well insulated (or summat) and webbed paws a la polar bear. Used on trawlers for rescue, so l was told.

Ron Long
August 30, 2022 3:07 am

Dr. Susan continues the useful Reality Check, showing the CAGW poster boy, the polar bear, is doing very well and not cooperating with the “consensus”. I remember the film, shown on American Sportsman, of archery hunter Fred Bear stalking a polar bear, only to lower his bow and back off. Fred later said it was the most fear he had ever experienced hunting, including lions and other apex predators. Sorry, Fred participated in the over-hunting of polar bears, but they are not the cuddly mascots portrayed by the media.

Simonsays
August 30, 2022 3:27 am

Another Polar Bear story. Aren’t they extinct?

Ian Magness
Reply to  Simonsays
August 30, 2022 3:42 am

The stories or the bears Simon? I think that the stories are thriving as much as the bears. Incredible that the penny hasn’t dropped for the authors despite year after year of contradictory evidence.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Ian Magness
August 30, 2022 5:16 am

There is none so blind as those who will not see.

DonK31
Reply to  Simonsays
August 30, 2022 5:16 am

Getting more rare every year.  Of the 5000 bears remaining in 1960, there are only 37000 left.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  DonK31
August 30, 2022 5:46 am

Due to the ice melting due to globular warning….

Ian Magness
August 30, 2022 3:38 am

“Hudson Bay lost 6-12 days per decade of sea ice cover 1979 – 2014 & the trends are expected to continue”.
Does this Derocher chap have a problem with maths and/or statistics? A 35 year trend appears to have been broken for 8 years but it’s still “expected to continue”? Clearly I need to go back to school.

Ron Long
Reply to  Ian Magness
August 30, 2022 5:05 am

Ian, you can’t go back to school because you never would get past the “woke” interviews, designed to identify deniers. Just saying.

Bernie
Reply to  Ian Magness
August 30, 2022 5:33 am

Can some provide a chart of Hudson Bay ice coverage? I can’t seem to picture what a 6-12 days per decade trend in sea ice cove from 1979 to 2014 looks like. Does that mean that sea ice cove is 21 to 42 days less in 2014 than in 1979? Extending it to 2022 would be very helpful too.

Last edited 1 month ago by Bernie
Graemethecat
Reply to  Ian Magness
August 30, 2022 5:37 am

How the Hell does Derocher know the trend will continue? Does he have a crystal ball?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Graemethecat
August 30, 2022 5:46 am

I expect he’s an ‘expert’….

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 30, 2022 3:33 pm

You do not need data to become an expert, you declare it.

H.R.
August 30, 2022 4:22 am

Those are a couple of fine-looking polar bears in the first photo. Looks like it will be a tough year to get pictures of starving poley bears.

alastair gray
Reply to  H.R.
August 30, 2022 4:55 am

No All the old geriatric farts of polar bears will all get emaciated and die. like people ‘cept that we promote them to the Whitehouse first

Ron Long
Reply to  alastair gray
August 30, 2022 5:06 am

Ouch! But true.

H.R.
Reply to  alastair gray
August 30, 2022 5:45 am

No, Alastair. When the polar bears get old and creaky, they retire to Florida just like everyone else. The photographers are in the wrong place to get pictures of old emaciated polar bears.

comment image

ATheoK
Reply to  H.R.
August 30, 2022 8:31 am

Those are a couple of fine-looking polar bears in the first photo”

I note that one of them is on land and has a mouthful of something that is not seal. An impossibility according to the Derocher and PBI.

Ill Tempered Klavier
Reply to  ATheoK
August 30, 2022 8:46 am

Polar Bears are Still bears: Eat anything but a rock.

ATheoK
Reply to  Ill Tempered Klavier
September 4, 2022 12:20 pm

Bears take ‘omnivore’ seriously.

rbabcock
August 30, 2022 4:26 am

The Southern Hemisphere is going through dramatic cooling thanks to Tonga and this will impact the Northern Hemisphere as well over time. Greenland just added 7 gigatons of ice to end the melt season, which if my calculations are correct, is a lot. November to March is going to be a winter to remember for the NH and the polar bears are going to love it. Best of luck to all those windmills running full tilt to keep the lights on.

fretslider
Reply to  rbabcock
August 30, 2022 5:36 am

Greenland just added 7 gigatons of ice…”

I can hear them now: “It’ll never be enough…”

Dave Fair
Reply to  rbabcock
August 30, 2022 8:30 am

Did Greenland add that 7 gigatons to her hips?

Tony K
Reply to  rbabcock
August 30, 2022 1:23 pm

Winter is gonna be the same as usual,some warmer some colder days.

griff
August 30, 2022 11:42 am

NW Passage open this year…

Drake
Reply to  griff
August 30, 2022 12:19 pm

Yep, the NW passage is so open that National Geographic is only charging $40,000.00 for a 3 week cruise in 2023.

I guess they are serving lobster and filet with Foie Gras and Beluga caviar at every meal.

Since we know there is no danger of ice impact since the passage is OPEN, they must be using a standard cruise ship. There must be some reason for the high price, right griff?

John Hultquist
Reply to  griff
August 30, 2022 8:54 pm

Non sequitur alert!

Cam_S
August 30, 2022 1:49 pm

When you get to Churchill, read the warning / welcome sign.

Churchill Welcome.jpg
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