Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead
May 24, 2022
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago —remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”
Additionally, NOAA has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:
- To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab will operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles during the peak of the 2022 hurricane season and coordinate for the first time with uncrewed ocean gliders, small aircraft drone systems, and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to measure the ocean, atmosphere and areas where they meet.
- The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Modeling System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, which have shown significant skill improvements in terms of storm track and intensity forecasts, have been successfully transitioned to the newest version of the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System, allowing for uninterrupted operational forecasts.
- The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time, giving more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. The ERO forecasts and maps the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
- In June, NOAA will enhance an experimental graphic that depicts the Peak Storm Surge Forecast when storm surge watches or warnings are in effect. Upgrades include an updated disclaimer and color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast. This tool is currently only available in the Atlantic basin.
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA has also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America’s coastal and marine resources. See how NOAA science, services, and stewardship benefit your community: Visit noaa.gov for our latest news and features, and join us on social media.
Those names look awful patriarchal.
Scissor, you’re right. In this woke generation the second named storm should be “buttcakes”.
Seems like a Boomshika, Wildhara, Windzella, etc., would be in order.
No “Stormy McStormface”?
After Bonnie, the next name should have been Clyde.
Agreed, Duane. Whatever were they thinking? You’d expect we’d get more for our tax dollars, but noooo….
‘NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season’
Dog bites man…
Didn’t they have the same prediction last year?
They have to in order to be ‘consistent’ with the rise in CO2.
They have the same prediction every year, and once in a blue moon they’re right.
What they should give is how many historical seasons this prediction would fit, how much this varies from an average season and how accurate their predictions have been.
NOAA is a joke….they predict above normal every year….then adjust every month…so at the end they look like they had a clue….same way they do hurricane tracks
Naming every little swirling fish storm helps.
When, in the last 20 years, has the prediction been anything else? Don’t bother answering, even when no landfall hurricanes for years, they always predict more.
To be fair, NOAAs guess for the 2020 season was correct. Notable as the exception.
Ditto for 2021. Both years were projected by NOAA to be well above average, and both years were well above average.
NOAA projects this year as another above average year for storms, but still far below the 30 tropical storms actually recorded in each of 2020 and 2021. Just 14-21 storms this year.
Both were high in numbers of named storms but that was just detection bias at work.
The ACE doesn’t compute
NOAA has to use the standard for reporting, which are the wind speed scale used to classify tropical cyclones. Detections are higher than four or five decades ago, but they really aren’t any higher than for the last two decades with sats and NOAA aircraft that penetrate the storms.
Honestly? It looks to me they name systems when they have not met the criteria for being named. One wind gust that breaches 39 MPH and it’s tropical storm blah-blah and then the whole thing falls apart a few hours later if there was even circulation to begin with, that is.
In sum, NOAA says there is a 70% chance that their 65% chance of an above average season is correct. 0.7*0.65= 0.46. That is called flip a coin.
I am not impressed. Let’s revisit in mid October.
I say, great news! NOAA is 90% sure it will not be a below average season. That gives us a 90% chance it will be a below average season.
You made that up. NOAA projects the number of named storms this year at 14-21. They don’t issue odds or probabilities of any specific single number of storms. The relatively wide range simply reflects their statistical analyses based upon real world historical data and their models based upon real world phenomena such as La Nina’s and El Niño’s, as well as others. These aren’t modeling fables like the warmunists use.
Duane, Rud repeated exactly what the NOAA release said. His was my reaction when I read the piece.
He repeated but misinterpreted the meaning, and his conclusion was wrong.
NOAA provides a range of number of storms per season, with a statistical distribution of storms within given ranges of wind speed and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
I’m surprise that Rud can’t read a statistical distribution and confuse the probabilities of different events being multiplied against each other to come up with a bottom line precision of only 46%. That’s not how statistical distributions work.
Better go back to school and stats classes and discover for yourself what it means to be a “normal distribution”, or some other kind of distribution.
I’m 70% confident that NOAA is making a political prediction and not an actual scientific prediction. Wait for it.
Not really – they’re just making the same kinds of statistically-based forecasts based upon actual measured conditions. It is true that La Nina years tend to have more Atlantic tropical storms than during El Nino years. And we are presently in a long lingering La Nina at this time.
Weather forecasters do extremely important work that cannot afford to be fudges with political views. They’re scientists – not warmunist True Believers.
Would you make economic decisions based on their predictions?
I do sometimes decide to go on a weekend trip based on the 10-day forecast calling for rain. Does that count?
Not on long range predictions that have such a wide range of precision. On their shorter term forecasts, over a few days, yes for sure. Mariners, aviators, farmers and others who literally live or die with the weather, such forecasts serve as key information inputs. However, one should never bet the farm or airliner full of passengers and crew on the weather forecast being absolutely correct … always have a plan B and a plan C. In fact for flight planning purposes having alternate destinations considered should weather prove an obstacle is the law.
The basic rule in considering weather forecasts is that the shorter the forecast timeframe the better quality and reliability of the forecast. Half year forecasts like hurricane projections only provide a very general idea of what one can expect this season. A three day forecast gives a mariner or aviator a very good view of what is coming, and is necessary for effective flight or voyage planning. A 24 hour forecast is better still. Ditto with a 6 hour forecast.
So this hurricane prediction is worthless…got it.
No – not worthless. It’s information that is relevant to a lot of people, including the general public, and for emergency response agencies who have to have the resources to deal with storms depending upon expected frequency.
Worthless
So the ignorant idiot commenters here downvote me for stating what every professional and even amateur aviator and mariner practices in planning every flight or voyage.
Must be pleasant being ignorant like that.
Who plans a trip in November based on NOAAs hurricane forecast right now?
Nobody
Seems to me they predicted an above average season 8 out of 10 times. But maybe that’s just me.
Get ready for gentle breeze Brian…
Dang, my name made the list. I will probably get some fish storm that no one ever sees. Seems kind of wimpy, but better than a land falling Cat1 that is called a Cat 4 by the weather channel.
It’s funny, looking at the La Nina pattern stubbornly holding on in the Pacific, I made the prediction to my wife of 22 named storms, 12 Hurricanes and 6 majors, just because La Nina years tend to be high.
Some people seem to think you are exaggerating but I remember Cyclone Yasi in Australia. That evening, after the storm made landfall, it was reported as a Cat 2 on the news. It was Cat 5 the next morning.
From The BOM “the time of writing there are no verified observations of the maximum wind gusts near the cyclone centre. However a barograph at the Tully Sugar Mill recorded a minimum pressure of 929 hPa as the eye passed over suggesting wind gusts of about 285 km/h were possible”
The highest gust recorded was 185 km/h before the station stopped recording. Seriously, less than 200 km/h winds brought it down before recording 285 km/h winds. It destroyed 30% of houses in Tully as it made landfall as a Cat 5.
They equate it with Cyclone Mahini in 1899
“People found thousands of fish and some sharks and dolphins several kilometres (miles) inland, and the storm embedded rocks into trees. On Flinders Island (Queensland), people found dolphins on the 15.2-metre (50 ft) cliffs”
So, we need to just watch you this year.
In other news, the north Atlantic is nothing like their prior warm years cited in hurricane stats and factors.
Record Year for Florida Hurricanes – Our Town Sarasota News Events
Warm OceanOne of the other ingredients that meteorologists consider in hurricane season outlooks is current sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean.
Klotzbach noted that water temperatures between the Lesser Antilles and the west African coast in early August were the fourth warmest since the early 1980s, exceeded only by three notoriously active hurricane seasons: 2005, 2010 and 2017.
Better look again……
NOAA SST-NorthAtlantic GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979 With37monthRunningAverage.gif (880×481) (climate4you.com)
Serious question. Do the futurologists at NOAA expect to get paid for this Mystic Meg style predictive skill?
Perhaps we can bookmark this prediction from them and check how they did at the end of the season?
All weather and climate predictions should be audited against reality.
Well, here are the predictions made by CSU, NOAA, and TSR so you can calculate how their predictions have fared:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
Watch them fly extra sorties until they get a wind reading to justify naming enough tropical depressions.
Those extra sorties are needed to keep the crews out of mischief:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/air-force-disciplines-hurricane-hunter-crew-for-unplanned-stop-to-pick-up-vintage-motorcycle/ar-AAXcbXZ
Guys get into trouble when they have “Too Much Time on Their Hands”:
https://www.myvidster.com/video/64359133/Styx_-_Too_Much_Time_On_My_Hands
They mis-documented that! If they had called it an unfamiliar airfield training mission, they could have “incidentally” picked up the motorcycle and been fine.
That has been going on for years in cargo circles. It isn’t a waste of government resources if it is “training”. The problem is if they stopped at a foreign airport for training, then didn’t declare their “incidental find” on their customs forms – that gets them in trouble every time.
From the AF Times: The crew left Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, on March 24 and landed at Quonset Air National Guard Base in Rhode Island. Without their superiors’ knowledge, the next day the crew made a detour to Martha’s Vineyard before continuing their assigned mission, which was to pick up equipment from Mather, California, the news release said.
Usually pilot proficiency training is done locally doing different types of instrument
& visual approaches, without regard to “familiarity”. If they could’ve gotten the
“detour” authorized for any reason, it may have been okay. The Reserve prolly has
more “flexibility” than active duty units. Bringing a military C-130 with an American
flag on it’s tail into liberal Martha’s Vineyard may have set a Karen’s hair on fire!
In that case, the commander couldn’t overlook it as “boys will be boys”.
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/05/11/air-force-punishes-hurricane-hunters-for-stop-to-get-motorcycle/
It is all marketing ‘fluff’ with no real meaning.
NOAA and others have abandoned science and are now just salesmen for an ill defined product.
Will be interesting to see how it works out.
With the price of everything going up any damage will be more costly and the price will be estimated to prove climate change based on cost.
Close.
The headlines will read:
“Climate Change Causes Inflation”
President’s economic advisors stunned by recent events.
“No one saw it coming” says one White House insider.
That will be the headline, and the story for the second half of the year.
You read it here first.
Another October headline to anticipate: Climate Change ™ caused the monkeypox pandemic that made it critically necessary to install ballot dropboxes everywhere.
Experts predict epic comeback by Dems
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo.”
Seems that some are more resilient than others..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tocuyJ1Fu7U
As for “climate ready”, I’m clueless.. anybody?
“Climate ready” is knowing where you live and looking at the types of average weather over seasons. I live where summers are hot and winters cold. To be ready for winter we make sure our furnace and emergency heat sources are prepared and outside water pipes are drained or protected. If I lived in Fort Lauderdale I would be prepared for hurricanes.
Climate hasn’t changed here since the ice left about 12,000 years ago. When the Cascade Mountains reach an average elevation of 250 feet our climate will change.
Odd weather is harder to prepare for. For instance, the leafed-out trees in the Denver area got a heavy load of snow. Ill prepared, some of them broke. Unknown? No. Rare? Yes. They, the trees, integrate climate, not weather. Gina Raimondo likely was thinking of weather but used the word climate.
I’m feeling good today, so I forgive her.
“… god is still on his throne” Senator Inhofe (The Machine Religion).
“which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.”
Is this true? We have had six consecutive above average hurricane seasons? I didn’t know that, what am I missing.
They’ve been easing up on just what it takes for a storm to be given a name.
So, of course, the number of “named storms” is increasing.
I wonder how many named storms, by todays standards, there were in 1900 when the deadliest hurricane in US history leveled Galveston?
PS If counted correctly, 24 of the top 30 deadliest hurricanes to hit the US were before 1950.
(When did they start naming hurricanes? When did they start naming tropical storms? When did they start naming tropical depressions? When could we even detect them if they didn’t hit land or a ship?)
TYPO!
Should be:
PS If I counted correctly, …
In the Atlantic, they began naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes during the 1950 season. The practice has always been to attach a name to a tropical cyclone once its maximum sustained winds reach tropical storm strength. Prior to that, you still had Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, they just weren’t given names. Also there’ve been numerous tropical storms that weren’t designated as such until after the fact when more data was available. They are post facto listed as tropical storms but were not given a name.
The further back in time you go, the less information you had about any given tropical system, so the less chance you measured it during its peak or throughout its life cycle. Also the further back you go, the greater were the chances you missed systems, esp. if they didn’t hit land or a ship.
This means that the hurricane database is not consistent nor comprehensive. Using it to estimate long-term trends is fraught with problems. A number of papers have been written which ignored these problems and their conclusions aren’t worth the paper they’re written upon.
😎
I found this
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
Looking back to 2010 I see only one season where they predicted below average, 2015
Most were above average with the rest near average
All the ones predicted to be average the next highest probability is above average, below average being the loser who gets picked last for the team.
Looks like prediction bias. That’s why they started counting rainstorms, to make the data fit.
A table summary can be found here:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
Again with that word “normal.” The text clearly says “average.” Can we stop using normal as a synonym for average? They aren’t the same thing.
Normal is a range of values. We can have above-average hurricane activity this year yet it can still be normal.
The expected increase in solar activity will increase the strength of the jet stream in the north of Atlantic and as a reaction a stronger easterly wind along the equator, which we are already seeing.
All the usual suspects will be screeching after every single hurricane that it’s due to “climate change”. Same rinse repeat BS every year.
This one FRIES me.
OMG – It is going to be an ABNORMAL hurricane year!!!!!
It is going to be an ABNORMAL season above normal, or ABNORMAL below normal.
Why oh why do meteorologists insist on using “normal” when they mean “average”.
Every temperature is abnormal, above or below the average.
Every rainfall is abnormal above or below, and on and on.
Here, at least, we saw several references to the mean, before backsliding, or editing back to “normal”. Can we start insisting on using some decent language correctly, here for once.
If you insist on using “normal” as in some sort of range, please define it for your usage.
Perhaps average +/- 1 standard deviation. or avg. @ 95% C.I. could be “normal.
A digression:
People HOWL when they see the term “ocean acidification” used today.
Howl, they will over “ocean acidification”, yet are fine with abnormal temperatures, precipitation, and hurricane years. Dare I mention tornadoes???
Me too!
Headlines I’ve seen in my local newspaper; “Forest Fires will be above normal this year”, “This winter will have below normal temps”, “Above normal rain expected this spring”, “This summer temps are expected to be above normal”, and etc… These headlines show up from time to time too; “This summer is going to be hot” or “This winter is going to be cold”.
Say this or we will pull your funding!
There is a Walter this year!
WOOT.
NOAA predictions are not very precise, so they can be accurate without really telling us very much. For 2022, NOAA predicts 14 to 21 tropical storms … that’s a 50% fudge factor. The “bury the lede” part of this is that each of the last two years, we experienced 30 named storms per year, so this is actually a huge reduction … but the headlines and articles make it sound like “Lions and Tigers and Bears, O My!” time
I also hate the use of the term “normal” in weather reporting. Anything that has ever happened before on this planet, or is theoretically possible, is “normal”. The correct terms would be “average” or “____ year average”.
I predict an above normal 2022 Climate Caterwauling Season.
My favorite is when weather channel guys strain to stand upright from the wind while pedestrians stroll casually by in the background. Oscar material, should be a catagory award for that.
The Blowhard Award?
or the putz standing in a deep ditch with water up to his waist to show how bad the flooding is
Don’t they do this every year?
Severe storms over the Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/PHP/make_maps.php?parameter_file=Tmp/query_data_1653424493
Lovely. Haven’t been in US since 1982 and I’m going to N Carolina in June to attend my son’s wedding. Bring a raincoat.
I’d be a lot more worried if I was coming to NC in September. Odds are you’ll be fine.
Aren’t you afraid of the ultra-MAGAs tfn?
Do they get fired when they are wrong again?
”NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season”
Does that mean it is going to get colder?
It only takes 1 major Hurricane to make landfall for a catastrophe and news headlines.
This can happen in a below normal Hurricane system as well.
So playing with a marked deck whenever and wherever a Hurricane hits land.
–
The obverse to the reasoning used is, while yes, La Nina conditions persist they are merely reflective of a cooler overall world. Since Global temperature is falling not going up at the moment The Atlantic will be slightly less warm than recently [still hotter than usual] and the science says that above usual temperatures tend to produce more hurricanes of the lower categories.
–
Does that mean it is going to get colder?
Yes.
Due no doubt to global warming the world is currently getting colder.
first of all, they’re corrupt politicized liars shilling for man-caused global warming interests.
second, who cares what they think? when they’re wrong we still treat them like experts.
third, these bozos decided to start naming mere storms about 20 years ago (prior it was hurricanes only) so now they can BS us by saying this one and that one are ‘record breaking.’
you want names? I’ll give you names: Ah-Chit, Bilbo, Chewing Gum, Darkie, Eggplant, Fungool, Grunties, Hurricane, Ironman, Jack-Chit, Kilroy, Lucky Strike, Moose Breath, NooKeyLar, Orenthal, Pizza, Fa-Q, Rub-a-Dub, Squeaky, Tea, Underwear, Vinegar, Whitey, Xebec, Yuck, Zardoz.
those are much better.
They seem to be so confident in the max figure that they only list 21 names. Let’s hope they don’t need more.
If they couldn’t find Quentin and Ursula in their names lexicon, how will they fare with X, Y, Z names?
There are some doozies here: https://www.familyeducation.com/baby-names/first-name
Xerxes, Ygraine, Zachariah. I’m keen to help!
I found this
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
Looking back to 2010 I see only one season where they predicted below average, 2015
Most were above average with the rest near average
All the ones predicted to be average the next highest probability is above average, below average being the loser who gets picked last for the team.
Looks like prediction bias. That’s why they started counting rainstorms, to make the data fit
In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas.
During La Niña, the even-warmer west Pacific and even-cooler east Pacific act to strengthen the Walker circulation. In April, both the trade winds and upper-level winds were stronger than average. Along with the April 2022 pattern of more rain than average in the western Pacific and less in the central/eastern Pacific, we have ample confirmation that La Niña conditions are still going strong.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake
Stream current pressure in the western US favors tropical storms in the eastern US.
Severe thunderstorms in Texas.
How confident should we be that it won’t start as early as last year?
Can anybody tell me how many NOAA predictions have been accurate?
Mumbles provided the data in a post earlier in this thread.
Severe thunderstorms across the southern US are entering from the Gulf of Mexico.
A cooling climate can increase Atlantic hurricanes. I argued this during the 12 year drought in land falling hurricanes. The contrast in temperatures between the Atlantic tropical and north Atlantic air masses is an important factor. Of course the tropical Atlantic does have to be warm enough. Look at the scary North Atlantic cold water extent on the Unisys map
But will the hurricanes be allowed to pick their preferred pronouns since they don’t get to choose their names?
The current circulation over North America could lead to flooding in the eastern US.
From the article: ““As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago —remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.”
“Superstorm Sandy” was not one storm but two hurricane-strength storms, Sandy and a Noreaster, which combined over New York. Shouldn’t the NOAA Administartor know details like that?
Severe thunderstorms in Alabama and northern Florida threaten flooding.
I am 70 % certain that the months of June, July and August will be hotter than the month of May here in the USA.
They will be hot in the west and very wet in the eastern US.
“NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast”
So much for a forecast that has any practical meaning…