“Excruciating heat will make summers increasingly dangerous. Agriculture and food supplies will suffer. People will be forced to migrate. Costs of living will skyrocket. All of these factors — and more — will contribute to political and social instability worldwide.”
“Eight years left to turn the ship”: Scientists share how climate change could change daily life
BY LI COHEN
APRIL 27, 2022 / 12:23 PM / CBS NEWSEarlier this month, more than 300 people in South Africa were killed as record rainfall washed away buildings and infrastructure in the Kwa-Zulu Natal province. A day earlier, dozens were killed in the Philippines after tropical storm Megi spurred landslides and floods.
The world is rapidly shifting — and the impact of human-caused climate change is increasingly evident.
“We’re in a very different place now from where we were even just a couple decades ago,” atmospheric physicist Alex Hall, director of the UCLA Center of Climate Science, told CBS News.
…
Today’s extreme events are only a glimpse of what’s to come.
“We are seeing already big increases in large storms. Hurricane Harvey hit Houston and Hurricane Sandy in New York,” said Hall, the atmospheric physicist. “…That’s what we’ve been predicting with a warmer world and we will have more of those types of impacts.”
This is why experts say carbon emissions must be addressed immediately. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant of the greenhouse gases — a set of gases that in large quantities create a sort of heavy blanket in the atmosphere that traps heat on Earth. In 2020, carbon dioxide accounted for roughly 79% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
…
As things are, people in the Pacific Northwest will likely see more intense heat waves and worsening air quality, Brosnan said, and the 20 million people who live less than 15 feet above sea level on island nations will be dealing with significant storm surge and economic repercussions as their land is swallowed by the sea.
…
Excruciating heat will make summers increasingly dangerous. Agriculture and food supplies will suffer. People will be forced to migrate. Costs of living will skyrocket. All of these factors — and more — will contribute to political and social instability worldwide.
…
Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-climate-change-could-change-daily-life/
Back in the real world, cancellation of oil projects and fossil fuel shortages are a far bigger threat to economic security and quality of life than climate change.
I give these predictions two out of five Wadhams. They score well on providing a sense of atmospheric menace, but predictions of imminent apocalypse were way more fun when scientists tied future dates to concrete events, like Professor Wadhams’ hilarious predictions of all the arctic ice melting away.
Nowadays climate scientists appear to be way too timid to be specific. Their sincere belief in their overheating climate models might still drive them to make wild apocalyptic claims, but they have learned from the embarrassments of their colleagues.
Correction: CBS not CNBC – h/t Stephen.
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I can’t tell you how proud I am lately of my UCLA alma mater. No, I really can’t! Of course it’s over a half century since the honorable conduct I encountered there, but it’s increasingly notable how much bad faith ‘information’ is disseminated from there. Not that truth-telling should concern any self-respecting university, you understand.
That also makes me old enough to recall a once deservedly proud Columbia Broadcasting System (identifying itself with shedding light in every direction much as the torch of a statuesque Miss Liberty) previous to its current thorough unreliability as either a factual source or spin-free manipulator of nearly every phrase introducing a matter at hand.
Naah. Joe Biden will be out by then.
I stopped caring after the impending ice age killed me back in the ’80s.
Wait a minute…the world ends in 2031 according to AOC, so who is going to observe all of these extreme events after that point?
Per the above article, Li Cohen of CBS News states:
“This is why experts say carbon emissions must be addressed immediately. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant of the greenhouse gases.”
Sorry, Mr./Ms. Cohen, but that is just plain scientifically FALSE.
Water vapor is recognized by all climate scientists—at least those knowledgeable enough to talk seriously about greenhouse gases—as being by far the predominate greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. This is due to (a) greater LWIR absorption efficiency of the unsymmetrical H2O molecule that has a permanent dipole moment, unlike the symmetrical CO2 molecule, (b) the absorption bands of water vapor in the LWIR spectrum over which Earth radiates across its min/max temperature range being far broader than those of CO2, and (c) the far greater average concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere compared to that of CO2.
Water vapor in air, with any dew point above -28 °C (-18 °F) at sea-level pressure will have a relative humidity of 1.8% or higher at 21 °C (70 °F), equivalent to a water vapor concentration greater than 460 ppmv
—- source: https://www.asge-online.com/pdf/ASGEpg185.pdf (among others)
And for reference, “In a desert, RH {relative humidity} is commonly around 15-25%.”
— source: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth111/node/557
So, a 15% minimum humidity level is more than 8 times higher than the level that corresponds to 460 ppmv water vapor. That concentration can be compared to today’s concentration of about 420 ppmv CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere.
Thus, CO2 is not even close to water vapor in terms of being a significant greenhouse gas, but this, ahem, “inconvenient” truth refuses to be acknowledged by the greater part of both the “less educated” (not meant as a pejorative term) and almost all AGW/CAGW alarmists, including quite a few scientists who simply should know better.
Bottom line: if anyone really wants to control greenhouse gases and their effect of “warming the planet”, then they clearly should start with controlling/limiting water vapor in Earth’s atmosphere . . . and good luck with that!
The measured increase of water vapor molecules is much faster than possible from just planet warming and 7 times faster than the measured increase of CO2 molecules. The increased warming from water vapor molecules completely overshadows any warming from increasing CO2 molecules. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
— Yogi Berra
Ms. Cohen seems to be suffering from a case of what I like to call the “Climate Vapors”. Perhaps a Zanax and a good lie down would help.
Synopsis: Alarmists: “It didn’t happen in the 2000s so we moved the date to the 2010s. It didn’t happen in the 2010s so we moved the date to the 2020s. It’s not happening in the 2020s so we’re moving the date to the 2030s.”
I’ve got $100 that says I know what their going to say in the 2030s. Something about the 2040s…
I’m hoping by 2030 politicians will be way to worried about malevolent AI / Skynet / Terminator scenarios to bother with climate fear stories anymore.
And, by then, dealing with radioactive fallout from mini-WWIII is not totally out of the realm of possibilities.
If Russia uses nukes in Ukraine the retaliation will be far worse than a nuke. Wuhan wasn’t the only place USA outsourced gain of function research, Ukraine also got a big slice of that cake.
Remember shame?
They don’t.
Well they do remember how effective it was in keeping people on the straight and narrow – helping them to avoid acting like animals.
Now shame has been removed from human interactions and weaponized for political gain – to shame people for the sin of wanting to get to work on time by using their own vehicle, or the sin of eating a nice steak, back in the day we could afford it.
Earlier this month, more than 300 people in South Africa were killed as record rainfall washed away buildings and infrastructure in the Kwa-Zulu Natal province.
I hate it when news reports begin with a statement like this. It reveals a dismal ignorance of the situation and weather patterns in this area in the past. A century ago considerably fewer people lived here and most not in the areas where the worst flooding would occur. Today many are living in shack settlements where local authorities should have prevented them from living. Poverty and unemployment of over 50% contributes to the problem.
One feature of the eastern parts of South Africa is that “annual flows of 600% to 300% of the average have occurred during wet years” (Dr P Roberts – former Deputy DG of Water Affairs). In many parts of the world people are not used to these huge variations which are common in countries that alternate between floods and droughts. The challenge is not to engineer the climate but simply to adapt to these conditions, to capture and store water in the good years for the dry ones and to have human settlements in safer areas.
” It reveals a dismal ignorance …”
Climatistas seem to be selectively ignorant about a lot of things especially facts!
They are even ignorant of what even the IPCC says about such events. Seems like the propaganda has taken on a life of its own.
It’s not ignorance, it’s propaganda.
“Excruciating heat will make summers increasingly dangerous. Agriculture and food supplies will suffer.”
The 1990’s just called. They want their predictions back.
It is almost as if the more wrong predictions they make, the more they step up the alarmism, and the more certainty they attach to their own predictive skill.
Wait, skip the ” It is almost as if” part.
And so, on it goes. In 2030, there will be a number of very disgruntled advocates, feeling a bit let down and disappointed. But, there will be a whole new generation of newbies, advocating the end of the world is nigh, and, with great enlightenment, our amateur alarmists of today, will attempt to warn them not to fall for the same BS they were told to believe. But will they listen?… Nope. On it goes.
As soon as a scientist cites hurricane Harvey, I know they are being dishonest. In 1900 the great hurricane which struck Galveston, just 47 miles from Houston, was far more devastating. It completely destroyed Galveston with an estimated death toll of 6,000 to 12,000. Similarly with hurricane Sandy. A storm surge of the same height hit there previously but did less damage because it occurred at low tide while hurricane Harvey hit at high tide. They rely on peoples ignorance to push their alarming narrative.
“Hurricane Sandy in New York,“ – Sandy was not a hurricane when it hit New York. They can’t even bring themselves to be a little bit accurate.
Accuracy is the biggest enemy of propaganda.
When are they going to give up on these predictions that never come about?
Even the Jehovah’s Witnesses eventually stopped putting a date to their doomsday predictions.
Don’t they ever feel embarrassed by failed predictions?
To be clear: The West should sacrifice everything so that Russia, China and India can increase emissions which will cause the earth to boil anyway, no matter what anyone else does, because they are not going to stop.
Got it.
These predictions sound pretty much like the predictions that they began making right after the equally hysterical predictions of the Ice Age Cometh didn’t and it warmed. They just won’t quit, will they?
I note that, at least in what’s quoted here, they are sticking to dire predictions of CAGW without positing a date certain, though the 2030s is a bit of a commitment, though, giving themselves 18 years is a considerable amount of time. Perhaps, this is after their retirement dates? Maybe they are capable of learning. Too bad avoiding setting a date certain on their disasters is all they seem to have learned after all their other failed predictions of the last 50+ years.
I only red the intro on the front page.
Was enogh to declare it to what it is:
BS^10
Good Lord. What motivates these people? How is their psychology explained? Year after year, decade after decade, “Doom is upon us! Destruction is at hand!” People who call themselves scientists engaging in the antithesis of scientific thought and communication. It’s tedious, but it’s also highly destructive.
It puts food on the dinner table.
Oh, good. We’re still doomed, then. I was getting worried that things might turn out OK.
Every day somewhere on earth there are extreme climate events unprecedented in the observational record. That’s normal climate.
“Agriculture and food supplies will suffer. People will be forced to migrate. Costs of living will skyrocket.”
I don’t know about climate, but I’m sure the weather will be bad at times over the decade – and absolutely certain progressives are hard at work on the above and won’t need bad weather to achieve those goals.
Where’s the Disinformation Board when you need them? If this doesn’t qualify, nothing does.
Wow, some people are really sensitive to a 0.1C temperature difference! I guess that’s why they call them snowflakes.
This Australian Bush ballad sums it up.
SAID HANRAHAN by John O’Brien
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s looking crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak –
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want an inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
Around the Boree Log and Other Verses, 1921