IPCC Scientists: Climate Change Doom is Doomier than People Realise

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

h/t Dr. Willie Soon; IPCC Lead Author Glen Peters and friends are dismayed some people have misinterpreted a call for immediate emissions reductions to mean that we still have a few years to act.

Climate change: Key UN finding widely misinterpreted

By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent

In the document, researchers wrote that greenhouse gases are projected to peak “at the latest before 2025”.

This implies that carbon could increase for another three years and the world could still avoid dangerous warming. 

But scientists say that’s incorrect and that emissions need to fall immediately.

“Global greenhouse gases are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest by 2025, in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5C,” the summary states.

Most media outlets including the BBC concluded that meant emissions could rise until 2025 and the world could still stay under 1.5C. 

“When you read the text as it’s laid out, it does give the impression that you’ve got to 2025 which I think is a very unfortunate outcome,” said Glen Peters, from the Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, and an IPCC lead author. 

So what went wrong? 

“Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj, from Imperial College London, and an IPCC lead author.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61110406

I can understand Glen Peters and Dr. Joeri Rogelj’s disappointment. I mean, they go to all the trouble of writing what is probably the bleakest, most doom laden climate report in history, only to accidentally leave a sliver of hope, an excuse to delay climate action. And like water falling through a leaky bucket, even the BBC slipped through the crack in their narrative.

Better luck next time alarmists.

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Dave
April 17, 2022 6:34 am

None of this matters, since we all died in the ice age predicted a few decades ago,

April 17, 2022 7:27 am

From the above article: “IPCC Lead Author Glen Peters and friends are dismayed some people have misinterpreted a call for immediate emissions reductions to mean that we still have a few years to act.”

Well, author Glen Peters and friends have it all wrong: many people have just ignored a call of immediate emissions reductions, recognizing it for what it is—pure politics!

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” –H.L. Mencken

April 17, 2022 7:44 am

The Inquisition, you never expect it

Burgher King
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
April 17, 2022 8:47 am

The Spanish Inquisition as interpreted by Mel Brooks

Cheesy Peas
April 17, 2022 8:26 am

Apparently “Colonialism” also causes climate change.
https://atmos.earth/ipcc-report-colonialism-climate-change
I mean, really?
Have we yet, finally, reached peak stupid?

David Sulik
April 17, 2022 9:01 am

Fearmongering is MONGIER than I feared!

April 17, 2022 9:59 am

Well the good news is that it will only take a few years to see how completely full of bull faeces they are. They’ll have to spend the few remaining years coming up with some other unrelated Armageddon fantasy if they want us all to forget how ridiculous this one is.

Olen
April 17, 2022 11:31 am

Just in time to support the Biden Administrations green policies. The use of could indicates not so urgent.

Bob
April 17, 2022 12:07 pm

These people are pathetic, crying alligator tears because average global temperature might rise 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial times. What a crock. First it was 2 Celsius above preindustrial times. People weren’t getting alarmed enough so they simply moved the goal posts. They are disgusting.

Rasa
April 17, 2022 12:34 pm

What I don’t understand is that with all the fossil fuels being burnt since Roman times and earlier, massive increases in populations, industrialisation, exponential aircraft travel, motor vehicle use…..
why does CO2 increase by only 1 or 2 parts per million in the atmosphere annually?
I mean the reality is 999,998 parts per million in the atmosphere don’t change.
Even more bewildering is if you consider the COVID pandemic where there was a massive reduction in fossil fuel used there was no change in the CO2 atmosphere patterns

April 17, 2022 1:08 pm

So we’ve gone from, ‘It’s worse than we thought,’ to ‘It’s doomier than we thought.’

Remarkable! Transformational!! Who said that climate science hadn’t advanced and that climate scientists were not creative?!

Editor
April 17, 2022 1:51 pm

emissions need to fall immediately“.

China.

April 17, 2022 1:59 pm

Well this confirms it’s all a fairy tale. Windows of time in any large endeavor are measured in multi decades, not 3 yrs. The Panama Canal is a tree fort project compared to achieving Net Zero. At least for the canal, the technology was proven and ready to ship to the work site. For Net Zero, they did not even know (although sceptics did) 5 yrs ago that their ‘renewable’ tech wasnt going to work and they have only begun investigating batteries as a “patch” for over the past few years.

To their surprise (engineers are not surprised that patching a failed tech is a no-no) this turned out to raise concerns that batteries may have limits on scaling up (grid scale ones can fail spectacularly (2 out of two in S Australia) and a tripling of anticipated number of windmills is needed to meet the enormous demands of the patch for Net Zero! Moreover, a limit to the percentage of wind units in a grid seems to be emerging in California.

Re the haulage truck tech, the jury is still out on the tech to switch over to (H², batteries, or bio-diesel). Finally, anyone have a guess on the record tonnage that the global lithium output reached in 2021?
Well it was 100,000MT.

Robber
April 17, 2022 2:49 pm

How long before a lockdown ala Covid is demanded to stop global warming? At sundown, all restaurants, pubs and entertainment must close, and people (except for essential services) must be in their homes by 9pm with only 2 lights permitted. No holiday travel by air or car permitted. After all, it’s an emergency right?

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  Robber
April 18, 2022 8:02 am

As the planet continues to cool as it has been, will we all get additional carbon allotments to offset the cooling? These idiots should be worried about crop losses due to a cooling climate. Oh wait they already worried about the coming ice age some 50 years ago…… nevermind.

Adam
April 18, 2022 4:35 am

Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj,”

Joeri Rogelj holds a PhD in climate science from ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and an MSc in Engineering and a postgraduate degree in Cultures and Development Studies,

“experts”,”researchers”,”the worlds leading scientists”
The reality, some fucking engineer, who can’t even make up his mind what subject he wants to study.

Neo
April 18, 2022 8:46 am

Good Lord. How can anybody from the Imperial College London show their face in public after those ridiculous COVID-19 projections back in 2020 ?

Dan
April 18, 2022 1:08 pm

Back in the day (2007) this blog gave a clear perspective of the alarmism.