From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Sheer madness!
MORE than half of all UK cars should be electric by 2028, according to the Government, as it looks to solidify plans for a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.
Grant Shapps is looking to set legally binding targets to speed up the shift away from petrol and diesel, and towards the mass adoption of electric vehicles. In its new report, the Department for Transport proposed legally binding annual targets that car manufacturers will be forced to meet before 2035.
In less than eight years, the Government will ban the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK.
Just five years later, a similar ban will be introduced to restrict sales of hybrid vehicles.
The proposed scheme would start in 2024, when manufacturers would have to sell all-electric cars, which account for 22 percent of their total sales.
The Government document added: “There is a level of uncertainty based on the form of wider policy measures and future demand, but this modelling assumes that by 2030 a minimum of 80 percent of all new UK car sales are zero emission.
“It assumes a 22 percent mandate in 2024 and 52 percent in 2028.
“Alongside ZEV uptake, it also assumes further efficiency improvements to non ZEVs.”
In 2030, the European Union expects approximately 46 percent of all new car sales to be ZEV across the EU.
The document stated that the UK is a leading ZEV market in Europe, so would expect to be above this average value.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said that new rules “must encourage consumers to purchase, not just compel manufacturers to produce”.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: “The danger is that consumers will lack the incentive to purchase these new vehicles in the quantities needed, keeping their older, more polluting vehicles for even longer thereby undermining the carbon savings this regulation seeks to deliver.”
If this is not an admission that for most drivers EVs are absolutely useless, I don’t know what is!
It also raises the question of how these quotas will be enforced. After all, car manufacturers cannot force people to buy EVs. And we already know that huge discounts don’t make any difference, because the government has already tried them.
I have read rumours that manufacturers will be fined if they don’t hit the targets, which simply means that these will be added to the price of conventional cars, to the detriment of drivers. If that is the case, people will simply tend to buy imported cars instead, who presumably won’t be affected by the quota.
This whole business is an example of how we are all gradually losing our freedom of choice.
“people will simply tend to buy imported cars instead”
Here in NZ, they’ve just plonked a $4.5K fee on imported cars.
Used imports attract a $2.5k fee as well.
It’s all good though – it’s not like people are suffering financially right now. Oh, wait.
I wonder how much pain the public will let their leaders inflict on them. NZers seem to be gluttons for it.
https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/clean-car-programme/clean-car-programme-questions-and-answers/
Isn’t EVERY car imported into NZ?
Yes.
I’ll just stick with my 2008 Nissan X-Trail despite over 110,000 km on the clock. If Cindy ever considers passing laws which outlaw older ICE vehicles, she will start a revolution. Fortunately we have an election due in just over one year – maybe more of us engineers need to stand for election.
The interesting question is how the Brits are going to stop the manufacturers, almost all of which are foreign owned, from simply folding their tents and stealing away in the middle of the night?
As for the poor (and I mean that literally) British consumer, they will need to study up on how Cubans have kept American cars from the 1950s running.
Cuba? Lots of backyard mechanics! Got the same in South Africa!
Also no cold weather requiring salt on the frozen roads which gets onto the cars making them rusty.
Points, plus, condensers are a lot easier to after-market manufacture compared with computer modules.
Electric cars are all about control and taxation.
little else
= things desperately needed by spendthrift Gov’ts made up of paranoid (chemically depressed and thus prone to panic##) people – people that make Mr Putin look like The Angel Gabriel
end. of. story.
## The Gov’t response to Wuhan Flu demonstrated that perfectly – the only response all that Western Gov’ts had was to throw money at an exaggerated and misunderstood problem/mechanism.
The exaggeration coming out of computer models =The Ultimate Contemporary Authority – in turn those computers been programmed by paranoid people.
sound familiar?
Positive feedback systems never end happily
Seems likely…
UK electric car sales hit record month | The Independent
“The number of electric vehicles registered in the UK in March was the highest on record for a single month.
Nearly 40,000 new electric vehicles were registered in the UK last month, an increase of nearly 80 per cent compared to March last year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
The number of registrations was higher last month than during the entirety of 2019, according to the group.”
I wonder how those new owners will feel when they start lining up for hours at charge points like poor Mr. Dale on his eleven hour journey from hell.
Even more interesting will be if the business car-owners, in 3 years time, will replace the electric car with another one, or will they go back to IC.
And what will they do with the old EV with the clapped out battery.. ?
Correct. With ICE cars, it was sensible practice to purchase an almost new ex-company car even with higher mileage. Someone doing that with a 3-year old EV will later realise that few years remain before the battery expense makes his purchase unsaleable. What then?
I believe someone has already experienced this in the U.K. he bought a second hand Mercedes and the battery needed replacing. The cost of the new battery was more than the car was worth.
Leasing is the only sensible way to have one, after the lease runs out, the battery becomes someone else’s problem.
I wonder how they’ll feel when they try to leave for work in the morning and their “Plugged In” EV has a drained battery because the “Grid” needed the energy to cover a shortfall in generation overnight
A very concerning statistic given the huge detrimental effects through the lifecycle of fully electric vehicles and the fact they do nothing to diminish the superstitiously vilified, life-giving CO@ur momisugly concentration in the atmosphere (or perhaps increase them modestly given their materials and energy intensity in manufacture). I share your concern Griff for this growing idiocy. When will we return to fact based decision-making?
Things are almost always “a record” when you start from a minimal base!
What you left out of The Independent’s puff piece Griff was this –
and this –
Petrol and diesel cars, and mild hybrid EVs which are mainly oil powered, registrations in the UK for 2021 were almost 1.2m. BEV,PHEV, HEV under 0.5m
So with 243,000 new registrations in March, “Nearly 40,000” EV registrations is nearly 16% instead of 8%
Interesting : “The AMS — a society of meteorologists, atmospheric chemists and physicists, oceanographers and other scientists — is among a number of professional science groups that have increased efforts in recent years to strengthen their ethics codes, foster a more welcoming culture for underrepresented groups and develop and enforce sanctions when members are accused of harassment or discrimination. They are also wrestling with how much to disclose publicly about such incidents.”
That’s nice of them!
Atmospheric scientist loses honor, membership over ethics violation (msn.com)
“This whole business is an example of how we are all gradually losing our freedom of choice.”
Or maybe worse, losing our collective minds.
My next car will be a gas guzzling truck and I’ll keep it for 20 years or until I die.
Even if a miracle occurred and U.K. managed to go entirely green energy (using nuclear power mainly) and 100% electric cars – besides improvising their own people with more expensive energy what have they accomplished? They account for less and less of the total emissions every year due to China, India, and soon Africa. Those areas are not going to throw away fossil fuels as they realize the huge advantage it gives them. By 2050, U.K. emissions are such a tiny part as to be immaterial to the imagined problem. Meanwhile, U.K.’s activists will have moved on to a new imaginary problem.
“When the EPA devised MPGe in the early 2000s, the government agency calculated that 33.7 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity is comparable to a gallon of fuel in terms of its energy content.”
https://bit.ly/3LTxw6k
(msn.com)
As the government “looks to solidify plans for a zero emissions vehicle mandate … ” the government needs to solidify plans for supplying the zero emissions electrical power that those zero emissions vehicles will require. It will take more than the stroke of a pen to do so.
My projected timeline:
2024, manufacturers legally required to sell all-electric cars.
2025 British people throw out all the politicians who foisted the Green New Deal on them.
2026 Unemployed politicians unable to find real jobs all go on welfare.
If only.
I don’t care a fig about CO2 and I am quite against mandating EV adoption by legal constraints like those proposed here in the UK.
HOWEVER EV’s will sell themselves. I’ve driven electric for 9 years and I’ll never go back to ICE. it’s just that ICE cars are horrid little gadgets.
Yes ICE cars are currently cheaper to buy (but look at the whole life costs) and that will in any case change: the first four-function calculators were expensive.
All the usual maintenance on an ICE vehicle probably doesn’t equal the cost of replacing the battery on an EV. And the real irony of EVs is that the only people who can use them efficiently (city dwellers) have no place to charge them.
So for the last 9 years the tax payer has been subsidising you.
Twobob – actually I think it has been the ICE drivers subsidising me through fuel tax and vehicle excise duty that maintain the road system.
I think in the long run EVs will have to step up to the plate on that, but in the grand scheme of things it won’t be big numbers
Given the scarcity of lithium and the huge increases in price over just the last 6 months, how long will it be before you can no longer afford to replace the battery? 2 years? 4 maybe? Sooner rather than later there won’t be any lithium for the batteries, at any price.
Richard – go away and do your homework before posting stuff like this
Revenues from Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty in the UK amounted to £37 billion in 2019 -20. EVs are currently exempt from these charges so other road users are paying for your benefit. Why should they have to subsidise you and your ilk?
Dave – if you look at my response to Twobon, you’ll see that I am not talking about subsidy
I used to drive a milk float in my youth, I didn’t like them then and from what I’ve seen in the intervening years nothing has happened to change my mind. There boring to drive, and runout of charge far too quickly. The only practical use is in towns and cities (as long as it’s equipped with a good horn!).
Headline : “More than half of all new UK cars to be electric by 2028 …”
Main article : “More than half of all UK cars should be electric by 2028, according to the Government, as it looks to solidify plans for …”
Don’t believe everything that headline writers write.
Mark – fair point but you might like to note that the two best selling cars in the UK in March 2022 were the Tesla Model 3 and the Tesla Model Y
Yes John, and I also noted this –
New car registrations declined by around 14 per cent to some 240,000 vehicles, the weakest March in 24 years.
I suggest that apparently strong sales last month of Teslas was more a statistical aberration of a weak overall market performance than “business as usual” conditions.
There are over 31m cars in UK of which 1.2m are BEVs/PHEVs. BEVs, ie fully electric, number less than half of this figure at 420,000.
“After all, car manufacturers cannot force people to buy EVs.”
It appears that the government may be happy to take on this role, though. I would be surprised if after poor EV sales, the government didn’t decide to stop allowing people to register their older gasoline or diesel vehicles.
In almost every country, we can see that the politicians would rather the people suffer than admit a policy failure. This case will be no different, and in fact the more suffering and complaining from the people, the harder the policy will be pushed as sort of a punishment for not going along nicely.
That’s why most countries make self protection unlawful.
Self protection is perfectly lawful, it’s the pre-emptive self protection that doesn’t go down well.
Charles
“A wind energy company has pleaded guilty after killing at least 150 eagles”
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/06/1091250692/esi-energy-bald-eagles?fbclid=IwAR0pwOjS-Yhe-qEsoNTKu2-jN-LF80ifkfA0MC8ZcNQawY0VYBqUDFD8n9E
Finally !
The UK Government makes no mention that their efforts to cease the use of crude oil may be the greatest threat to civilization. Attempting to attain a decarbonized world like the one that existed in the 1800’s and before, could result in Billions of fatalities for the 8 billion on earth from disease, malnutrition, and weather-related deaths, versus the projections of millions of fatalities from changes in climate.
Of the 3 fossil fuels of coal, natural gas, and crude oil, crude oil is the only one primarily used to manufacture products for society that are the basis of the economy.
Crude oil is virtually useless, unless it’s manufactured (refineries) into oil derivatives that are the basis of more than 6,000 products in our daily lives that did not exist before the 1900’s, and the fuels to move the heavy-weight and long-range needs of more than 50,000 jets and more than 50,000 merchant ships, and the military and space program.
Wind turbines and solar panels may be able to generate intermittent electricity, but they cannot manufacture anything. BTW, all the products needed to make the parts for vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, planes, ships, medical supplies, tires, asphalt, and fertilizer are made with the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.
Of the 3 fossil fuels of coal, natural gas, and crude oil, where’s the UK Government’s replacement or clone for crude oil, to keep today’s societies and economies running?
I’m unconvinced that politicians actually want to keep our economies running. Look at what they’ve done to us over the last few years. Aside from the lockdown idiocy, a number of countries are wrecking their electricity grids by getting rid of reliable sources before a decent replacement is put in place.
I’m also unconvinced they want us to _replace_ ICE vehicles with EVs. I suspect they just want rid of ICE vehicles, and we’ll just have far few people driving. They’re quite open about telling us all to make more use of public transport and bicycles. Here in NZ there is a blatant drive (forgive the pun) to disincentive driving cars – lowering speed limits, replacing car lanes with (mostly empty) cycle lanes, doing away with off-street parking, imposing import fees on vehicles that have no EV equivalent, narrowing roads in suburban areas etc.
As for weather-related deaths (e.g. due to making it unaffordable to stay warm), well that’ll be blamed on ‘Climate Change’, not their idiotic drive to rid of us the best/cheapest source of energy known to man. The clowns are already telling us the shortages arising from the Russia/Ukraine conflict are evidence we need more ruinable energy, not less.
I’d be interested to know, is there _any_ western country that has said ‘enough’ to this ‘green energy’ insanity? Has any one of them pointed out that CO2 isn’t actually pollution?
These people are not our friends.
/rant.
My wife drives a 2005 Toyota. I drive a 2115 Ford. Bet they will still be running in 20 years.
“My wife drives a 2005 Toyota. I drive a 2115 Ford. Bet they will still be running in 20 years.
Years ago, before I got my first decently paying job, I dreamed of the new truck I might someday be able to afford. Hearing this, my father gave me a piece of advice: “Live in present. Don’t live in the future.”
I have a 2009 made-in-America Mazda 6, the most reliable car I’ve ever owned. It refuses to wear out. My thirty-year old F-250 also refuses to wear out. If I’m still alive twenty years from now, I’ll still be driving these vehicles.
Do you have your own oil well and fuel processing facility? The way things are going you may need them to keep the cars running.
so that’s kind of a ‘back to the future’ deal there with the Ford?
Anybody figured out where all this electricity is supposed to come from other than the outlet in the wall?
Short answer – NO.
(but sadly, activists, politicians and bureaucrats, having absolutely no answers, are choosing to just respond like this –
Why would they? Isn’t that where electricity comes from?
(I wonder how many of the “activists” live where their utilities are included in the rent. If you don’t see the bill, you don’t think about the cost. That’s the reason that government bond elections target advertising to apartment dwellers that don’t know how much of their rent is actually property taxes on the their landlord.)
“Transport proposed legally binding annual targets that car manufacturers will be forced to meet before 2035.”
This is what is wrong with communist economics. Ordering what must be produced is guaranteeing economic bankruptcy, of first the companies, and ultimately the nation. Even China learned that free enterprise was the E=Mc² of economics. Of course, if you also order half your citizenry to buy electric on pain of prison or execution, you could square the policy circle, guess.
LOL … wishful thinking by Russian funded greens.
Stupid. Gasoline is a product of cracking crude oil. In the late 1800s there was no use for gasoline, so it was just burned off.
Moving to electric cars cuts down the demand for gasoline, but it will increase the demand for fuel oil used for power plants to charge those electric cars. The gasoline will be produced in larger quantities and will end up just being burned off. In short, this will result in more consumption of crude oil, not less.
very rough estimates but gives a clue about what electricity is needed for an all EV United States
according to statista for 2020 there were 276 billion registered vehicles in the US.
according to statista 2020 electricity used in the US was 3,802 billion kilowatt hours [KWH]
policyadvice claims the average car is on the road for 13,474 miles per year.
motorbiscuit claims an average an electric vehicle gets 100 miles per 30 KWH
an average EV would need 134.74 x 30kwh = 4042.2 kwh to travel 13,747 miles.
so 276 billion vehicles x 4042.2 kwh/vehicle/year = 1,115,647,200,000,000 kwh per year to operate.
1,115,647,200,000,000 kwh / one billion = 1,115,647.2 billion KWH
electricity usage for US year 2020 was 3,802 billion KWH
electricity needed for all electric vehicles for one year is 1,115,647.2 billion KWH
1,115,647.2 billion KWH / 3,802 billion KWH = 293.43
basically to run all vehicles on electricity we would need to generate roughly 293 times the electricty more than we currently generate
now factor in electric heating…
The body of the article seems a little different from the headline — all not half new vehicles will be electric, and not hybrid.
This must be followed by denying license to operate for all but essential fuel-powered vehicles. Fuel burning vehicles will be eliminated.
Power production is already limited to a closed list of licensed suppliers.
Step 2 will be nationalization of fossil fuels, with the main dedicated to electrical power generation and a small amount rationed to essential permits.
None of this will have any effect on the climate, or the weather.
The new world order will certainly be built around a planned economy, but will it be Marxist or Fascist?
There’ll certainly be some weird shit going down in the car market as witching hour approaches.
I really couldn’t give two poos what the current generation wants. They haven’t done any thing to warrant anything special yet. Please explain how you are going to produce enough electricity to charge all these cars when you can hardly produce enough for the current infrastructure.
When you have power no foolishness is too extreme.
Perhaps the UK will become like Cuba, with the great majority of cars being decades old, but kept in service somehow.Great time to buy an auto junk yard.