Twistin’ with Gallup’s Extreme Weather Poll

Opinion by Kip Hansen – 9 April 2022

I was at a dinner dance recently and the dance floor was mostly empty with two exceptions:  When the music was Latin American (like the bachata) or when, miracle of miracles, Chubby Checker and his band treated us to “Let’s Twist Again” which resulted in a dance floor so crowded we could barely twist in place. 

The Twist?  Yes, still a very popular dance and also a very popular journalistic approach to all sorts of news,  especially with the results of national polls.

The latest example, of which there is never a dearth or drought, is the Gallup Poll about Climate Change and Extreme Weather.  The linked .pdf file only gives the questions and answers for questions 14 through 27 out of a larger poll:  “Turning to something else, 14. I’m going to read you a list of environmental problems…”.

The poll is trumpeted by the NY Times as:

“One-Third of Americans Faced Extreme Weather in Recent Years, Survey Finds — Hurricanes and winter weather, such as snow, ice storms and blizzards, were the most common events cited, according to a Gallup poll.”

Gallup itself says: “Extreme Weather Has Affected One in Three Americans”.  Despite the odd Chubby Checker-esque text at Gallup, at least they properly placed the linked report in their “Politics” section.

What did they find?  In reality,  they found that one-in-three had been affected by weather that they did not like.    I would have thought it would be higher than that as Americans are forever complaining about too much or too little: rain, sunshine, warmth, breeze, snow and other weather phenomena.    Some of that weather might be considered “extreme” only if one means significantly more or less than is normally experienced day-to-day, season-to-season, or year-to-year. 

What kind of “extreme weather”?   Ever since Global Warming has taken hold of the public imagination – 43% of respondents reported that they worry a “Great Deal” about climate change, down from 46% in 2020 – the weather has been getting colder and colder and winter’s snowier and snowier. 

Thus 12% of all Americans and 36% of those affected by extreme weather reported that they had been affected by these two types of extreme weather:  Extreme cold and  Snow/Ice storm/Blizzard

Only 5% of Americans reported being affect by Extreme heat.

Now Hurricanes and Tornadoes are extreme weather phenomena and affected 6% and 4% of Americans respectively.  There were only two hurricanes and only one of those was a major hurricane which made landfall in the Continental U.S., major Hurricane Ida, which caused a lot of damage on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana.  Hurricane Nicholas was a tropical storm until moments before/after landfall and barely made hurricane status.  In addition, 5%  of Americans were affected by the non-weather related (but included in Gallup’s total) Fire or wildfire and Earthquakes.

One further oddity, Gallup “adjusts” for Gender, Race, Age, Education, Party I.D., and Ideology.  Yet the numbers they use for “Totals” on the question on Extreme Weather are the weight-adjusted numbers from the Party I.D.  columns.

Click here to see full sized in new tab/window

The clearest result of the Gallup poll is that the media, including the weather channels both broadcast and streaming, have had great success convincing the population that weather is getting worse and that we are seeing extreme weather more and more, despite factual evidence to the contrary.

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Author’s Comment:

Extreme Weather is a marketing meme developed by weather broadcasters to raise interest, viewership and market share. You know who they are.

The IPPCists use Extreme Weather to attempt to frighten the populace into accepting  UN IPCC dictated energy policy and bring about draconian social and political changes.

Weather is weather.  Sometimes its wild – always has been – always will be.

Polls are political – always – always have been – always will be.

Thanks for reading.

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Ron Long
April 9, 2022 10:08 am

Given a choice between layering-up and skiing or walking in shorts on a beach, guess where I’m going? Does that make me a “denier”?

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 11:08 am

Given that I’ve survived “The Comfy Chair”, I’m sure I could endure
the “boring” weather of San Jose, CA. A few 8 hr rides on a bus up
to Tahoe/Reno or a drive down to Santa Cruz/Carmel would be just
what the doctor ordered to cure my malady. Problem solved! 😉

Dusty
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 8:18 pm

That occurred to my brother and me on the fourth day of our visit to Santa Monica, CA.

Shouldn’t that be considered extreme, too?

Old.George
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 12, 2022 10:53 am

I turn 79 this summer. Florida is just fine, although in summers my exercise walk is very early or very late.

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Long
April 9, 2022 10:45 am

Yesterday I took a long lunch and did a couple of hours of spring skiing. It was a little cold for shorts but there wasn’t a cloud in the sky and the temperature was most pleasant excepting for a little wind.

Winter conditions will return to the Colorado mountains next week, but girls skiing in bikinis is not too far away.

Ron Long
Reply to  Scissor
April 9, 2022 11:41 am

Scissor, “…girls skiing in bikinis…”, I’m guessing they’re not the same kind of bikinis I’m seeing.

Doonman
April 9, 2022 10:11 am

I think its high time to cast more virgins into volcanoes to solve these weather problems we’re having. It worked just fine for previous generations of politicians who wanted to solve their weather problems too.

Joel O'Bryan(@joelobryan)
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 10:48 am

That’s why the Left is now coming for our 5 yr – 8 yr olds with their school-based sexual grooming and to exclude parental rights. Sacrifices must be made for the Left’s religions and orthodoxy of queerness.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 10:56 am

It appears to be especially a problem in Scotland.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Doonman
April 9, 2022 11:57 am

I humbly request we change to volcano food from virgins to politicians, climate activists, and of course, lawyers.

Sara
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 4:01 pm

I said the same thing above. Better fuel, too. 🙂

MM from Canada
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 9, 2022 1:33 pm

I upvoted you with a qualification: my son is a lawyer – can we please exclude him from being volcano fodder? I’ve known him all his life, and he actually does have principles.

AndyHce
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 5:12 pm

How many virgins got excused for ‘best behavior’? It may hurt a little but it is all for the greater good.

Tom
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 10, 2022 4:30 am

“Best behaving lawyers”? Isn’t that an oxymoron? I’ll give you “good” behaving. Remember the requirement of advocating for the client, regardless of the behavior of the client.

Mr.
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 9, 2022 3:22 pm

If you’re going to restrain / capture a climate activist, it’s best to approach the target from upwind.

Get downwind of these malodorous creatures and you’ll being doing a credible impersonation of G. “I Can’t Breathe” Floyd Esq.

Joao Martins
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 10, 2022 7:14 am

Yes. And the less virgin the better.

Sara
Reply to  Doonman
April 9, 2022 4:00 pm

Try using politicians instead. 🙂

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Doonman
April 9, 2022 9:46 pm

From his appearance I can believe Piltdown Mann is a virgin
Could start there

Edward Lunny
Reply to  Doonman
April 10, 2022 7:59 am

Your terms are acceptable

Bruce Ranta
April 9, 2022 10:29 am

A bit off topic, but I would like to point out that despite tornadoes, hurricanes and other big storm events, I’ve never seen a report on storm damage to solar arrays. A few on damages to wind mills, but never solar arrays. Are solar arrays (I just can’t call them ‘farms’) the antithesis to a trailer park?

Bruce Ranta
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 11:53 am

What a card you are, Kip.

Bruce Ranta
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 12:52 pm

I understand. But the only question I asked was, are solar arrays the antithesis of trailer parks? I don’t think there was any implication for you to research that. Mostly a simple observation of MSM reporting.

AndyHce
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 9, 2022 5:15 pm

the antithesis of trailer parks

is more than a little vague

Bruce Ranta
Reply to  Scissor
April 9, 2022 11:51 am

That was back in 2017. Quite a while ago…..

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 9, 2022 11:33 am

Great point. Here’s a map of US hail risk:

comment image

I also found one for the world:

http://www.winerisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/risk_map_hail-1-1024×512.png

Last edited 1 month ago by Old Man Winter
Ron Long
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 9, 2022 11:45 am

Old Man Winter, thanks for putting up the link to world-wide hail risk. I’m (what’s the opposite of thrilled?) to see Mendoza, Argentina in the Extreme category. Some years ago our terra cotta tile roof was destroyed by hail the size of tennis balls. You could tell the size by the holes punched through plastic lawn/pool furniture.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Ron Long
April 9, 2022 12:00 pm

My car insurance company always had many hail damage
claims in Colorado where my cousin actually did roof repair.
He’d often times save tile he removed & use it to get a good
match for other repairs as hail was quite common.

The largest hail I ever saw was ~ that of a golf ball. It left big
dents in the real wood siding as it was wind blown.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 9, 2022 12:14 pm

Solar panels are generally made to withstand medium sized hail and winds up to 140 MPH. Large hail will destroy solar panels and higher than 140 MPH can rip them free of a roof. This assumes they are not the cheapest solar panels available…

Solar farms with fixed steel mounts for the panels are still vulnerable to large hail, but most farms are built where hail is infrequent like desert areas. These farms are mostly vulnerable to high wind debris striking the panels and shattering the glass like in a hurricane or tornado.

I do not know of any solar farm struck by a large tornado but it’s only a matter of time. Once this occurs the shattered panels will be lifted into the air and glass and toxic metal debris will be spread over miles of landscape. A large energic tornado can exceed 300 MPH, but anything over about 180 MPH will likely destroy the panels and left the debris.

The other possibility is a brush/grass fire. While this will not spread debris, it will likely ruin the panels if hot enough.

AndyHce
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 9, 2022 5:13 pm

I’ve seen a few mentions, with photos, of hail damage.

Tom Halla
April 9, 2022 10:35 am

Well, Texas did have extreme weather St Valentines Day 2021, but it was a freeze. If the predictors of doom cannot even get the sign right on what temperatures are supposed to do, . . .

Joel O'Bryan(@joelobryan)
April 9, 2022 10:43 am

Like any war, truth is the first casualty. The climate War is a religious war, a war based on faith that the climate priesthood and its climate scriptures are correct. They are of course all self-serving BS.
So the liberal media selling the climate religion tenets of increasing wx extremes is selling the climate religion, truth be damned.

So is the climate crusade a war which can be won by forces needing a return to truth. In this case, Yes. Because this Climate War is also a war with nature, and nature always wins against man’s follies when they are in contradiction to nature.

Steve Case
April 9, 2022 11:16 am

The clearest result of the Gallup poll is that the media, including the weather channels both broadcast and streaming, have had great success convincing the population that weather is getting worse and that we are seeing extreme weather more and more, despite factual evidence to the contrary.
__________________________________________________________

Someone that I talk to simply believes what NPR says.

The other day I put up the Solzenytsn quote* as stages 1, 2, 3 and 4:

     We know they lie.
     They know we know they lie.
     We know they know we know they lie.
     And yet they still lie.

We haven’t arrived at stage one yet.

*As posted by Rud Istvan

Old Man Winter
April 9, 2022 11:22 am

I don’t see how anybody, without exception, can not have experienced
extreme weather. Even working hard on an 80F windless day will make the
sweat flow. Standing in a 60F wind blowing in off the ocean feels cold after.
a while. It would feel perfect if you just switched activities. To me, these
surveys are a scam to “share the scare” which doesn’t exist.

Dusty
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 9, 2022 8:57 pm

One of the difficulties with a survey like this is the people contributing their opinions. The older a person is the less likely they will report extreme weather recently because their marker for extreme is set by the worst they have encountered. As the age of the respondent decreases, the more likely it is that they will note a recent event as extreme.

My extreme weather reporting (age 68) from Western NY would be as follows:

Snow storm: 1964.
Ice storm: 1991
Hurricane: 1973? ( tail end of Agnes)
Heat: 1986 ( 2 weeks and it forced me to put in my air conditioner on day 10).
Drought: ~ 2005.

Everything else subsequent to those just became normal variation.

Robert of Texas
April 9, 2022 11:55 am

I wonder what “Extreme Weather” even means? Hurricanes are a natural event so as far as the planet is concerned, they are normal weather, but a person would likely consider them extreme.

I remember tornadoes as far back as my memory goes. They are both normal (to the planet) and extreme (to the person). I remember some years with wild outbreaks and other very calm years – nothing has changed except the common sense of those writing about them.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Robert of Texas
April 9, 2022 4:04 pm

The use of the adjective “extreme” with the noun weather is as you note completely misleading. Imagine a big circle surrounding numerous small circles. In each of the small circles you can fill in the names of the different weather events – whether we find it pleasant or not. The name of the big circle is weather.

There are not two big circles one named normal weather and the other extreme weather. This is going down the same path as those who insist there are more than two sexes. It is lunatic activists mangling language to push their irrational ideology.

AndyHce
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
April 9, 2022 5:25 pm

I believe that (minus politics) there has been a generally excepted technical definition of extreme weather having to do with amount of variation from average; probably more than either 2 or 3 standard deviations. This means, among other things, that what is within average variation in one place may be extreme in another.

Dusty
Reply to  AndyHce
April 9, 2022 9:08 pm

Still with politics aside, I suspect that every Central American who has immigrated to a northern state in the US will report having experienced extreme cold in recent years.

Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
April 9, 2022 12:16 pm

“One-Third of Americans Faced Extreme Weather in Recent Years, Survey Finds — Hurricanes and winter weather, such as snow, ice storms and blizzards, were the most common events cited, according to a Gallup poll.”

Are they counting plain, ordinary snow in the winter as “extreme weather” now?

Stephen Philbrick
Reply to  Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
April 9, 2022 5:20 pm

Of course. Over 20 years ago we were informed that, “snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. Surely, when snowfalls are virtually nonexistent, then any observable snow qualifies as “extreme”.

roaddog
Reply to  Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
April 13, 2022 12:23 am

Yes, it seems that winter is now extreme weather. Apparently the northern half of the United States is unlivable.

rah
April 9, 2022 12:38 pm

There is what people think and then there are the facts:
Hiding The Decline In Extreme Weather | Real Climate Science

rah
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 9, 2022 1:57 pm

Your welcome for the link but thanks should be given to the man who did the work and that is Tony Heller a master of providing such historical perspective.

I know that Anthony and Tony have had their differences but as far as I’m concerned their sites complement each other.

rah
Reply to  Kip Hansen
April 10, 2022 3:34 am

Point taken. I cannot help but think though, that even here, with so many that try understand and get to the truth, the link I provided will not be read clear through by most because of it’s length.

Some will not read it because they think they know it all already. But most because we are being conditioned to take our information in small bites and so many just glance and go on if they click the link at all.

Nik
April 9, 2022 1:06 pm

So, we now rely on opinion polls of Joe and Jane Schmoe for data on the Earth’s climate. Science!

roaddog
Reply to  Nik
April 13, 2022 12:28 am

Joe and Jane moved here from California and can’t stand the weather. The rest of us are praying for more snow, for obvious reasons.

Nicholas McGinley
April 9, 2022 1:20 pm

Snow is now “severe weather”?
Anything people do not like can also be described as severe weather?

Sara
April 9, 2022 3:58 pm

OK, I’ll drop my complaint in right here: It snowed this morning, here in my Kingdom. I object 5to this vehemently, as it is now the 9th of April and I should not be looking out the window at snowflakes flying through the air, or have to explain this obnoxious sight to my cat.

But I’m sure it will be taken care of, as the geese have returned to their home grounds, the sandhill cranes are ignoring this aberrant weather, also, and the mergansers are busying themselves with diving after the fish that the forest preserve district has dumped into the lakes. The Free Food people will likely be showing up in about 2 days to benefit, too.

Life is hard when you’re unable to understand that we have no control over the weather and never will. I think I have enough ice cream, popcorn and soda to make it through to next Tuesday. For those benighted souls who don’t understand seasonal changes and how variable they are, I suggest that they move to a warmer planet. Perhaps Venus would do.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Sara
April 9, 2022 8:54 pm

Sara, we get 6 weeks of summer per year here in calgary and we have declared a climate emergency because of it.
I assume the plan is to try and warm the climate to make it more livable but I’ll have to check on that with our new bubblehead mayor.

rah
Reply to  Sara
April 10, 2022 11:29 am

It was 32 F here at my central Indiana home when I woke up this morning. But now, after a week of miserable wet and cold weather it is 57 deg. and the sun is shinning. The Porterhouse steaks are marinating and the grill on the deck is clean and ready.

In three hours I will be out there grilling them, Jack & non-coke in hand, and a nice baked potato and toss salad will top off the meal. Life is good. Even though the Porterhouses cost $12 49 a lb.

Dusty
April 9, 2022 8:11 pm

This is what you get when idiots do science.

Maxbert
April 9, 2022 9:59 pm

“Everyone complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”

Old Vaudeville Line.

rah
April 10, 2022 9:12 am

It’s Palm Sunday and every year I remember this violent weather:

April 11, 1965, Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak (weather.gov)

I was 10 years old. The Kokomo Newspaper printed a special issue and somewhere I still have it.
This photo is in it.
comment image
The caption reads: “The sign says Alto but the town is not there.”

James Bull
April 10, 2022 10:30 am

Here what’s this you saying the Americans complain about the weather I thought that was the purview of us Brits. If we can’t talk about the weather we’re lost for something to say.

James Bull

2hotel9
April 10, 2022 11:58 am

So, are they claiming 2/3 of people live someplace that has no weather? Cause all that 1/3 of respondents is saying is they experienced weather.

rah
April 10, 2022 1:48 pm

This is no surprise with the constant flip flops of temperature and pressures we have had this spring. Of course the “news” will think it’s a big deal and will never reveal that prior to this year 7 of the last 10 tornado seasons have been well below average.

March breaks record for most tornados in a single month (msn.com)

jeff corbin
April 11, 2022 6:48 am

Fallacy of consensus gentium appears to be a very effective propaganda tool for keeping the cadre obedient and supportive of the targeted narrative. Even to the point cadre and non-cadre populations experience weather differently. I wonder if there are any studies that show the effectiveness of this fallacy over time…that is for a particular narrative before there is a backlash. People don’t cope well with the cognitive dissonance of alter-reality driven to the extreme by consensus…. the lie tends to become harder and harder to hide.

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