The World Faces Both A Hydrocarbon Shortage And A Divest Fossil Fuels Movement. What Next, Oil Patch?

Reposted from the BOE REPORT

Terry Etam

Good morning, echo chamber!

That’s the stereotype, anyway – since this is an oil/gas industry site, the readers must therefore be in da club. It’s not necessarily true; I can happily report that readers come from all over, and that more than a few are not hydrocarbon people at all. No horns or anything.

While I’m very glad to have such people aboard, today is a question only the hydrocarbon crowd can answer:

What’s your game plan from here forward?

That’s obviously kind of a stupid question in one sense, because the answer obviously depends entirely on one’s frame of reference. Corporately, a game plan for a small producer will be different than from a mid/upstreamer which will be different from an oil sands producer, and these group/corporate perspectives will be different at the individual level. There are a thousand occupations and situations, each with its own decision tree.

Despite the potential variance, it’s still a valid question, because we globally we are at a crossroads of some major significance. The well-being of much of the world’s population depends on what the hydrocarbon industry does over the next few years. At the same time, the pressure is building for the hydrocarbon industry to shrink and wither (as in the wildly successful divest fossil fuels campaign, or banks cutting back on oil/gas loans to curry favour with Those That Matter).

This is big-picture contemplation, a philosophical decision that each of us will have to face. Younger people will have to decide if they want to remain in the industry, even with that red dot trained on their forehead. Mid-career ones have to decide if it’s time to retrain and leave as they are being encouraged to, though they are probably more used to the red dot. Later career people have to decide whether they scramble for the exits as soon as those newly-valuable stock options vest.

The question is not an easy one given the dramatic reframing of the hydrocarbon industry over the past few years. We used to be the good guys, the world’s fuel providers, a dynamic and entrepreneurial and fast-moving assembly of doers.

Then the narrative changed, and the industry went from relative obscurity to Public Enemy Number One. By 2019, public animosity towards it reached a peak, with orchestrated mass protests around the globe. 2020 brought a near-death experience as Russia and OPEC decided to decimate prices in a battle for market control, and all the anti-hydrocarbon protesters switched from protesting to cheering, famously claiming that “oil was dead”, that oil prices would never recover because EVs were causing rapid demand destruction, and that the humane thing to do now was to justly transition all hydrocarbon workers to other industries.

Even typing that stuff now sounds like an alien experience, like walking around in a crowd without a mask. The reason those conversations feel so outdated is because, today, it is clear that oil is about as dead as the internet. Some will of course say that high oil prices will hasten a transition to renewables, and that is true that it will make renewables more cost competitive (though still no match on the reliability front).

But consider that a rapid transition to renewables is impossible from a mining perspective alone (the IEA has said that a global Net Zero 2050 transition would require four times the number of critical mineral mines by 2040 (a virtual impossibility when governments are making mining harder everywhere), and the Geological Survey of Finland calculated that a full transition via renewables/EVs would require more critical metals and minerals than there are known global reserves). 

If you are still on the fence as to whether hydrocarbons’ days are numbered, consider that Germany, the world’s most advanced energy-transition country, just days ago mused that drilling for new oil/gas deposits in the arctic sounds like a pretty good idea.

Consider also that this is the new-ish Green-led government saying this. Keep in mind also that any arctic development takes years at a minimum, so these developments have nothing to do with this immediate crisis. If Germany is plotting decade-length oil/gas developments, that tells you all you need to know about the demise of hydrocarbons. There isn’t one.

But that doesn’t answer the question at hand. What will people in the industry do? Will they bolt and get retrained in something else? There are a variety of situations of course, but one is far more ominous than the others. Here’s a bit of a dissection.

Process people will most likely keep processing; any occupations that are in perpetual flow states will likely not stop because of a lack of employees. If you are a gas marketer or pipeline scheduler or refinery manager, there isn’t a visible break point in the continuity of business. 

But producers are different. Much different. Next year’s barrel of production won’t necessarily and automatically appear as part of a continuous flow. A lot of very capable brain power needs to be enacted, crews hired and managed, etc. Finding and developing new oil/gas flows is a choice.

If no one chooses to find and produce more petroleum, the flow slows, then stops. If geological talent dries up/retires/moves on, new production doesn’t just happen. Same with drilling crews or completions experts or – dare I say it – truckers.

Anti-hydrocarbon sentiment rums deep in academic institutions, yet it is those very institutions new employees will have to navigate if they are to land in the oil patch. It is no longer “just another option”. There is stigma attached to petroleum programs.

There is venom coming your way from complete strangers. It should then be no surprise that students are acting accordingly; they are going elsewhere. In one US study, from 2016-19, the US petroleum engineering student count fell by 60 percent, and no doubt has fallen further since. Even here in the heart of the Canadian oil patch, the University of Calgary has suspended the petroleum engineering program after the student count fell to an all time low of 10 – and that’s over a two year period.

What if no one chooses to look for oil anymore? Yes, ten thousand western elites will cheer wildly, but billions of trucker-grade people around the world that need that fuel for survival will say WTF, or some such local equivalent. 

Those ten thousand western elites will tell all the global plebeians Hey, don’t worry! Solar panels are on the way. And the billions will say Yeah…but can I get a fridge that has power for more than six hours a day? And western elites will say Nope! But don’t worry batteries are on the way. And billions of those plebeians will say Great! When? And western elites will say Battery storage is cheaper than its ever been! And the plebes will say Great! When? And western elites will say Death to fossil fuels! And the plebes will ponder in awe the presumed mysticism and superiority of elite non-sequiturs, little conversational re-directs that the great unwashed masses simply aren’t worthy of comprehending, and then they will starve to death.

And the hydrocarbon producers will be sitting there wondering what to do next. They’ll answer the phone and second cousin Moonbeam from Toronto or San Francisco will be shrieking about how you’re killing the planet, and then but you’ll turn on the news and hear that it is a moral imperative to produce more oil since all you oil guys are rolling in money which will be true but then the politicians will be saying ‘We’ll take that windfall money btw and then whatever is left better be going into green projects but yes you had better increase production right now and we mean right now but only for this year and then everyone should divest fossil fuels and we’ll see you in court for all the emissions you’ve unilaterally created over the past century and maybe the fines will be deductible from the windfall tax and maybe not and we’ll let you know when we’re good and ready.’

And yes I do love run-on sentences.

If this sounds melodramatic it isn’t. In fact, the situation is far more critical than it sounds, in terms of global impact: there is a multi-trillion dollar behemoth of a fuel system that keeps humanity alive. It is 80 per cent hydrocarbon-based. There is at present no substitute. Most parts of that system function conditionally – they require a non-stop flow of hydrocarbons. 

The various components of this huge system have “something to do” because, and only because, a relatively small group of people and entities at the origin of that system, the upstream, choose to keep it full. This small group looks at seismic, looks at well logs, drills wells, does production plans, builds small scale infrastructure to bring this energy life-blood on stream. Without those few people the system withers just as does a plant pulled from the ground.

A lack of expertise and/or interest in bringing new hydrocarbons to market will mean that the world’s supply dries up. Good, the ten thousand activists will say. Good, you might say, let’s see who needs who. But these other seven-plus billion won’t be too thrilled at all. No fuel, no fertilizer, no food. All because of choices we’ve made here in the west.

So? Will you continue to power the world or not? A lot of hungry mouths are desperate to hear a yes. Those in power here in the west, the ones that control your economic destiny, have a crazed and volatile look in their eyes as they try to figure it all out, but are publicly unable to support you because they’ve been kicking you in the ribs for a long time and it’s kind of hard at that point to stop and call all the other kickers bullies.

Don’t look at me, I have no idea what happens next. All I can say is that at the point it becomes optional, I will choose not to put my head in the vise any longer. I suspect I am not alone.

Slava Ukraini! Find out how the world got into such a calamitous energy state, and how to get out – pick up  “The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity” at Amazon.caIndigo.ca, or Amazon.com. Thanks for the support.

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here. PS: Dear email correspondents, the email flow is wonderful and welcome, but am having trouble keeping up. Apologies if comments/questions go unanswered; they are not ignored.

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griff
March 19, 2022 2:16 am

The UK and EU are doubling down on renewables… accelerating the roll out out rate… and that’s why fossil fuel is on the way out.

Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 2:42 am

Increasing atmospheric CO2 will drive higher crop yields, but insignificant global warming. Climate is INsensitive to rising CO2. The alleged human-made global warming crisis is a decades-old fraud, supported by scoundrels and imbeciles:
The scoundrels know they are lying and the imbeciles believe them – wolves stampeding the sheep.
Also, green energy is not green and produces little useful (dispatchable) energy.
Told you so 20 years ago.
 
We also predicted in 2002 that solar-drive global cooling would start ~now, and that seems to be happening. We are now in an energy and crop crisis that I predicted in 2002 and in detail in 2013. Those responsible for getting us in this climate-and-energy mess committed crimes against humanity, and should be tried, convicted and imprisoned.
 
My concern is that the same scoundrels and imbeciles who got us into this mess will now try to solve it – and they have neither the intelligence nor the integrity to do so. Imagine you are drowning, and your lifeguards are Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Boris Johnson, and Emmanuel Macron – good luck!
 
Are there any national political leaders out there with any intellect or integrity? Our Western societies increasingly appear like so many lemmings, stampeding off a high cliff. 

JeffC
Reply to  Allan MacRae
March 19, 2022 9:27 am

As far as the UK is concerned it looks as if Nigel Farage will have to be our saviour just as he was with Brexit.

AndyHce
Reply to  JeffC
March 19, 2022 4:46 pm

It was a nice idea but it sure flopped badly.

Ron Long
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 2:55 am

Hey, griff, when your buddies from Russia show up, do you think: 1. they will arrive in electric tanks (ET’s), and 2. they will thank you for your anti-petro assaults?

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Ron Long
March 19, 2022 7:41 am

Ron the answers are
1 No
2 Yes

fretslider
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 3:51 am

The UK is stuck with a Parliamentary dictatorship

Consult the people with a vote, do the democratic thing

You do identify as a supporter of democracy?

MarkW
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 7:22 am

Liberals support democracy, but only as long as democracy supports them.

Jeroen B.
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 3:58 am

Work is also progressing on FWAMP’s – Free-Willed Air-Mobile Porcines, success is just around the corner. They’ll be helping spin the windmills faster when there’s a need for more electricity. /s

Which color was your Flavor-Aid today, Griff ?

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  Jeroen B.
March 19, 2022 8:20 am

Griff hasn’t figured out that the final flavor is Jim Jones’ …

b.nice
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 4:33 am

People like you will be the first to whinge and whine when things start to get really tight.

Food supplies low, no fuel or heating for large parts of the day.

You reap what you sow. And the sooner the better. 🙂

Ron Long
Reply to  b.nice
March 19, 2022 5:01 am

whinge: “to complain, especially about something that does not seem important”. Thanks for my new word of the day, b.nice. Nailed it with griff.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Ron Long
March 19, 2022 7:44 am

The Aussies have it Whinging Poms A person of British origin who will consistently complain about any situation that they may face. They are emotionally unable to deal with any sort of adverse condition without commenting negatively about it.

Dudley Horscroft(@dudleyhorscroft)
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
March 19, 2022 5:22 pm

As a Pom I must state that the sort of Whinging Pom I see on the TV usually is a shop steward and has a Scots accent.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 5:03 am

Doubling down on a bad idea doesn’t make the idea any better. Many emotional investors fall in love with a stock and keep putting money into it without regard to whether it is a good investment or not. They soon go broke and wonder what the hell happened.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom in Florida
2hotel9
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 5:22 am

And right on cue the lie spewing liar toddles in to spew more lies.

David Middleton(@debunkhouse)
Editor
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 5:25 am

Dave Fair
Reply to  David Middleton
March 19, 2022 11:36 am

And those numbers come from the U.S. Deep State that has been told to get rid of FF by 2050. The U.S. will not be able to compete with Asia if the renewables penetration is that high in 2050.

Greytide
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 5:32 am

You can renew all you like but when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, you have NOTHING. There is nothing wrong with fossil fuel, it is all just part of the carbon cycle.

LdB
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 6:15 am

No coincidence that EU and UK are in the deep end up to their necks in energy supply issues. You can keep dribbling your pipe dreams but without Russian gas you are in the toilet.

When you have both solved your problem come and talk … until then it’s all just pie in the sky dribble

Last edited 2 months ago by LdB
Bruce Cobb
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 6:52 am

Griff doubles down on Stupid.

MarkW
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
March 19, 2022 12:53 pm

When one only has one talent …

Mark Whitney
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 6:53 am

Chuckle. What is it like Griff wearing oversize shoes and a round red nose?

MarkW
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 7:21 am

As if making a mistake twice as fast is a good thing.

Joao Martins
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 7:58 am

We shall talk about that “way out” six months from now. Just wait.

G Mawer
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 2:24 pm

How can fossil fuels be on the way out when so much more of it is needed to build all of those renewables?? And install….maintain….etc….

Rick C
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 3:20 pm

Also accelerating time to grid collapse and economic depression. Careful what you wish for. I’m sure Putin & Xi will be happy to pick up the pieces when Europe and the UK fall apart.

John in Oz
Reply to  griff
March 19, 2022 4:29 pm

Most of the arguments against fossil fuels relate to energy production with renewables as the supposed answer to powering the World.

What is not addressed by those in favour of the cessation of fossil fuels is what will replace the thousands of ubiquitous products we use that are by-products of fossil fuels.

From a US Department of Energy flyer (my bold):

Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas make the manufacturing of over 6,000 everyday products and high-tech devices possible. Major petrochemicals—including ethylene, propylene, acetylene, benzene, and toluene, as well as natural gas constituents like methane, propane, and ethane—are the feedstock chemicals for the production of many of the items we use and depend on every day. Modern life relies on the availability of these products that are made in the United States and across the globe. We zero in on some of these common household and commercial products below. The list may surprise you!

Griff, what do you propose will replace these products as the list includes the keyboard and computer that you rely on so much to disparage fosssil fuels?

Jeff corbin
Reply to  griff
March 21, 2022 6:58 am

The EU continues to fill Gazprom’s coffers and an ever increasing rate. The EU’s decision to phase out Nuke Power in 2010 was incentivized by the prospect of LNG from Brazil and USA to the EU to run giant NG powered turbines through a two tier generation system into decentralized system of smart grids. The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and the ceasing of LNG port construction meant that they would beholden to Putin and his Oligarchs. So the biggest news of the last 12 years has been massive Shale NG in the Western Hemisphere and Russia’s political, military and market aggression in Europe, not renewables. Since then a mushroom cloud of Climate change propaganda has hit Europe and the Western Hemisphere pushing renewables…. to what end? And who paid for all that propaganda and who benefits from it the most….definitely not the consumer or tax payer. Until the truly Next Gen Battery hit’s the market all the yap about climate change and renewables is pointless. Ukraine and Europe as a whole has plenty of shale gas…but the green movement/and oil companies have prevented Europe from extracting it. China has the largest Shale gas reserve in the world, (1.5x the US). Ukraine is ranked 23rd in shale gas Russia is 2nd in shale gas. This gives some insight into the Russia and Chinese partnership…. it’s too much money to leave in the ground over the next 20-40 years. Meanwhile it was reported in Fox that Russian has in part, been funding the climate change propaganda mushroom cloud that has engulfed everything in the past 5 years. Who are Gazprom’s partners… all the energy companies of the world including ours. The issue at it’s core is globalism and the energy despots (political and hydrocarbon fuel cartels) response to it.

Jeff corbin
Reply to  Jeff corbin
March 21, 2022 7:15 am

Climate change propaganda has psychological warfare written all over it. Psych warfare requires expertise and expertise requires big bucks. We are not dealing with a ground swell of faith based sentiment the propaganda has a to be a strategic goal on a global scale. This is the way business is done in a globalized market place with Trillions of dollars are at stake.

If you have read my posts, you would know that I am waiting for the next gen battery so I can go off grid. I’d love to see the consumer take control and put an end to this BS we have been consuming for the past 12 years. Give the consumer the capital they need to 1) provide themselves energy independence on a nano-scale or at least cheaper energy, 2) to collapse the hydrocarbon fuel market miasma of megalomaniacs, despots and other exploiters across the globe. The net effect would be that I would no longer be their consumer and intellectual serf. 3) The other net effect would be the quality of our the air, water would improve and intellectual products we consume would greatly improve. Bad money makes bad bedfellows.

Ron Long
March 19, 2022 2:50 am

This is a good thought piece, and I am pleased to see Terry Etam introduce the term “money tree”. This was commonly utilized, before insanity became popular, to choose which investment path was the best decision. When you mix “Critical Path” and “Fatal Flaw” analysis with a money tree filter, you get the best option for investment. Obviously, none of the CAGW/Greenie Wienie/Net Zero crowd has either never done this or was so stunned by the result that they went somewhere else. Gasoline in SUV’s and Nuclear for electricity!

Dave Fair
Reply to  Ron Long
March 19, 2022 11:41 am

Social stigma or not, if there is money in a profession people will flock to it. Check in with Mike Rowe on that topic.

observa
March 19, 2022 3:16 am
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  observa
March 19, 2022 7:51 am

In the link

“What it does is it helps balance the system. The battery will then be able to get the electricity from the grid and put it back into the grid when we need it.”

This assumes that a power shortage will last at a mazimum of 4 hours after which there will be surplus to recharge the battery. Looking at data for the UK grid this happy scenario rarely occurs. Once discharged the battery may well remain in that state for days or eveb weeks

James Snook
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
March 19, 2022 9:38 am

It’s remarkable how this simple fact is not understood (or ignored) by the unicorn farmers who imagine that battery storage is the missing link that will suddenly make wind and solar The Way To Go.

Dave Fair
Reply to  observa
March 19, 2022 11:46 am

Four hours if you assume a 100% discharge and recharge cycle. Nebba happen, GI.

Klem
March 19, 2022 3:36 am

Throw the Democrats and the Marxist greenies out of power, and get back to drilling and providing beautiful life giving crude to the world. How’s that for a plan?

Scissor
Reply to  Klem
March 19, 2022 5:58 am

It seems like Biden should consult with his son who is the smartest person he knows and a former $50,000 per month director of a gas company (in Ukraine of all places).

Rick C
Reply to  Scissor
March 19, 2022 3:29 pm

LOL. Hunter may well be the smartest person Joe knows given the intelligence of those advising him.

DiggerUK
March 19, 2022 3:46 am

I hope the echo chamber of regular anti-alarmist contributors can apply some thought before they post. All our minds should be affected by current geopolitical events. Mine certainly is.

Normal service seems to be maintained by the alarmists doubling down on demands to expand wind and solar renewables. As we are heading towards the normal sunnier and windier climes in the northern hemisphere, it will probably have the alarmists saying… ‘see, renewables are the answer’.

Once we get in to the winter season at the end of 2022, especially if it is a very cold and wind drought time, there could well be serious problems keeping the lights on.

Most here will realise that without the gas, oil and coal from Russia, not having fossil fuel electricity generation will most likely fail to deliver next xmas.
The sanctions seem optional for now anyway, I feel it unlikely that they won’t get tighter though.

This is a good and thoughtful article. It deserves some good and thoughtful work before you contribute. That is the basis of the real emergency we face…_

Once again, can I ask all UK citizens to sign and circulate this parliamentary petition for a referendum on NetZero.
(I’m nothing to do with supporters of Nigel Farage)…_

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/599602

Last edited 2 months ago by DiggerUK
fretslider
Reply to  DiggerUK
March 19, 2022 3:54 am

Farage has jumped on the bandwagon

DiggerUK
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 4:15 am

Yes he has got on the bandwagon, I’ll live with that. He talked about doing so a while back now.
He has quite skilfully positioned himself into the right place at the right time. But that’s opportunists for you.

Me…, never criticise an opponent when you agree with what they do, it just makes anyone look foolish. “Smile and wave, smile and wave”…_

Dave Fair
Reply to  DiggerUK
March 19, 2022 11:48 am

That’s good advice even if you aren’t a penguin.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 7:59 am

I don’t like Farrage much however I have to defend him on this one. He has been on this bandwagon quite a while This from 4 June 2013

However, his adoration for the countryside has led to a strong opposition of wind turbines, which he labels “expensive” and “spoilers of the Great British landscape”.

“When I first saw wind energy I thought ok, it works. But it doesn’t work. It needs continuous back-up, it costs a fortune and god only knows what the cost of land will be.

“I am vehemently opposed to wind energy but if we can find sustainable energy from tidal power for example, given my background as an environmentalist, I’d go for it,” he says.

His criticism of wind energy isn’t the only issue Farage has with the Government’s environmental strategy, however. The science behind “man’s” impact on global warming is becoming less clear, according to Farage, and he suggests that “settling with current science” is a mistake when establishing environmental policy.

https://www.edie.net/library/UKIPs-Nigel-Farage-on-wind-farms-global-warming-and-Charles-Darwin/6342

fretslider
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
March 19, 2022 8:30 am

“He has been on this bandwagon quite a while “

Amongst others….

“Dutch Green Business Group, which is listed on the Amsterdam stock exchange, said it had appointed Farage to its new advisory board. The eurosceptic and former Ukip leader will “facilitate introductions to politicians and business leaders in the UK and around the world” while also acting as a spokesman for the company, it said in a press release.

His new employer, which aims to plant trees to capture carbon, is part of the rapidly growing but controversial carbon offsetting industry. “

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/28/nigel-farage-appointed-to-advisory-board-of-green-finance-firm

He jumps on any bandwagon that’s going, Ben, and he has a copper-bottomed EU pension to prove it.

Last edited 2 months ago by fretslider
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 9:27 am

One of the reasons I said I don’t like him much.
Spent years trying to get Brexit then ran away. Was happy to take all that was going from being an MEP.

Contrast Dave Nellist, A long-standing supporter of the Militant tendency, Nellist was the MP for Coventry South East from 1983 to 1992. He was known for his standing as a “workers’ MP on a worker’s wage”, taking only the wage of a skilled factory worker, which amounted to 46% of what was then an MP’s salary. The remaining 54% he donated to the Labour movement and to charities. From Wikipedia

Nellist political leanings were far left but compared with the current generation of in it for themselves politicians….

Martin Pinder
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
March 19, 2022 3:38 pm

Hm.. do you really believe that about a worker’s MP on a workers wage? He did damn well out of it. He was useless, just a big mouth & a head full of badly thought out ideas that when you took time to think about them you realised that they were nonsense. Farage at least knows how best to use money to organise a high profile campaign & galvanise a lot of people. Nellist & his cronies only know how to waste money & now they are fading into obscurity. Believe me. I speak from personal experience, not the propaganda from Wikipedia. They are just a joke.

Spetzer86
Reply to  DiggerUK
March 19, 2022 6:48 am

Heck with the lights. With increasing fuel and fertilizer costs, just hope the farmers can find enough money to plant in 2023.

DiggerUK
Reply to  Spetzer86
March 19, 2022 7:22 am

I mainly use fertiliser for the allotment vegetables.
Just over a year ago a bucket was £11.95, last August £12.95… a few weeks back £14.95.

This alarmist nonsense will hit a public backlash when large numbers suddenly realise that “it’s the economy stupid” isn’t just a smartarse sound bite.

Our direct debit dual fuel bill just went up from £157.00 to £227.00 per month. I suspect it will drop back by about ten quid a month when it can be shown their adjustment ‘based on your normal consumption’ has been ‘slightly overestimated’

We are in a comfortable financial situation and can swallow this shit, but anyone with a family, mortgage/rent and finance deals to service are in between a rock and a hard place.

Best buy a new Yellow Vest whilst they’re still affordable and available…_

Dave Fair
Reply to  DiggerUK
March 19, 2022 11:55 am

Leftists, like the Communists, believe they can make a “New Man.” In this case Leftists think they can convince people to accept a lower standard of living “for the climate.” Luckily, they can’t change human nature and they will get their asses whipped as people begin to understand their end game.

fretslider
March 19, 2022 4:03 am

Soon even talking about climate change will be made even more difficult

The “legal but harmful” provisions in the Online Safety Bill give Big Tech’s executives like Nick Clegg the power to delete perfectly legal posts that woke social justice warriors find offensive or rude etc etc

Still no word on fracking

Boris is a space of waste who would much rather pay top dollar to the Saudis. Virtue signalled

Martin Pinder
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 3:43 pm

‘Soon even talking about climate change will be made even more difficult’. Too true. They’ve just cancelled the net zero referendum campaign first meeting in Bolton again due to threats.

ThinkingScientist
Reply to  Martin Pinder
March 20, 2022 12:29 am

And MP Graham Stringer (Labour) was told by Keir Starmer he would have the Labour whip taken away if he attended the debate.

The debate, FFS. What ever happened to talking about things?

Tom in Florida
March 19, 2022 5:04 am

Having only about 10-15 years left on this planet, I really don’t worry about it.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom in Florida
March 19, 2022 11:56 am

Got kids, Tom?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Dave Fair
March 19, 2022 8:05 pm

Yes and they will be well off when I stop breathing so they don’t worry about it wither.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom in Florida
March 19, 2022 10:33 pm

They are lucky to have parents that care for their wellbeing. It seems like many parents are like sea turtles; drop the kids in the sand (public schools and the streets) and let them fend for themselves.

2hotel9
March 19, 2022 5:25 am

I don’t see the problem. Any financial institution which “divests” from energy sector gets blocked from access to all energy. Sell them no more electricity, gas, oil or diesel. They don’t want it, shut them off. See how fast they reinvest in energy.

Martin Pinder
Reply to  2hotel9
March 19, 2022 3:46 pm

The thing is, at the end of the day, people make investment decisions on the investment returns & not on the ESG. Even if they do consider the ESG to start with, they will soon tire of it when they see other investments doing better.

2hotel9
Reply to  Martin Pinder
March 20, 2022 6:21 am

Any financial institution engaging in this has to be punished, not some silly boycott or “let’s just wait and see if it gets better” crap.

paul courtney
March 19, 2022 5:33 am

The answer, unfortunately, is that places like Saudi Arabia will produce oil as the US closes down oil production due to lack of financing. Other nations that don’t need a US bank loan and that don’t listen to fool enviros will produce because they will get the highest price (from elites who can afford to use it) for the foreseeable future. Enviros delude themselves that if they can drive the price high enough, people will find alternatives to burning oil. And these folks currently govern the US.

AWG
March 19, 2022 6:05 am

Those in power here in the west, the ones that control your economic destiny, have a crazed and volatile look in their eyes as they try to figure it all out, but are publicly unable to support you because they’ve been kicking you in the ribs for a long time and it’s kind of hard at that point to stop and call all the other kickers bullies.”

I don’t think it is that hard at all. As mentioned earlier in the post, the Power of Redirection and empirically Short Attention Span plus the fact that people will quickly forgive someone who tracks back to the success path.

Look no further to the meme: “Conspiracy Theory is just a synonym for Spoiler Alert”. It is observed fact that what was suitable for permanent banning a while ago is now fashionable and hip. So when Hunter Biden’s laptop, or the mRNA VAERS reactions, or masks, or Russian Collusion, and soon all of the banned counter statements wrt Ukraine/Russia marital dispute, the narcissists who gave us the Grand Narrative that leads to destruction quickly and silently turn 180 degrees and a public that only knows perpetual gas-lighting goes along with the abrupt change in Narrative.

Where do you think the term LIV (Low Information Voter) got its definition? This generation is suffering from several acute mental pathologies including: lack of Theory of Mind and Horizontal Decalage – the inability to ask questions and consideration or acknowledgement of the existence of secondary or tertiary order of effects. So when a policy goes bust, the propagandists can simply redirect or provide the non sequitor and all is well among the majority.

It is easy to manipulate The Masses to demand that Ukrainians fight and die for Freedom and simultaneously, voluntarily and submissively surrender all of their Freedoms over the C19 “Pandemic”.

Furthermore, I am totally convinced that in a market that only allows long positions (the retirement and pension funds most people are invested in) that all markets are over priced, the only way to extract riches from the system is to cause disruptions and to have your appropriately short/long positions placed around the events. That is what is meant by “rigged”.

It would not surprise me in the least if some politically connected fund came around and bought up the Keystone XL assets for pennies on the dollar and mysteriously got green lighted to complete.

The only way I don’t see oil coming back is if The Play is truly the Great Reset with all of the engineered depopulation programs baked in and ready. We need plastics, medicines, clothes, fertilizers and a plethora of other petroleum derived Necessities. Which leads to the question of who is backing the Green Movement that only afflicts Western Nations but completely ignores Asian and developing nations.

Looking at who owns the majority of “Sustainable Energy” (e.g. Walmart, Google, Facebook, Amazon) it seems to be a scam to plunder affluent populations by cynical technocrats. So is this a hustle by them? Is this a four dimensional game of World Dominion chess? The academic representation angle presented in this article suggests that this is a long game, but STEM in general has been deprecated in the West, starting as early as K-12 to disincentivize students from pursuing anything other than a stunted liberal arts education.

So to answer the question: Are the Malthusians making their Great Play? Is China/Russia asserting world domination? Or is this yet another, in a long line of orchestrated shake-downs of an industry to fetch billions in rent-seeking and buying up foundational assets for pennies on the dollar?

Scissor
Reply to  AWG
March 19, 2022 7:10 am

I’m with you, AWG.

I might differ in that I conclude that this nonsense is truly global and Asia is not immune to it. In fact, having worked a little in China I recognize that global warming is also part of their propaganda repertoire.

Dave Fair
Reply to  AWG
March 19, 2022 12:01 pm

AGW, I personally believe a little paranoia serves a man. Excess paranoia, however, can be harmful.

Martin Pinder
Reply to  AWG
March 19, 2022 3:51 pm

That we need petroleum for plastics, medicines clothing etc. is a good point. I wonder how much plastic there is in a Tesla, or is all some inferior renewable substitute made from potatoes or something?

Harold
Reply to  AWG
March 19, 2022 8:29 pm

who is backing the Green Movement that only afflicts Western Nations?”

The non-Western nations are generally not democracies.

The solution is some variation on a much-reduced franchise in the West, where people who do not pay taxes are not allowed to vote.

Mickey Reno
March 19, 2022 6:19 am

To fanatical environmentalists, human beings are the very epitome of “carbon pollution.” It’s the smell. h/t to the incomparable Hugo Weaving

John Shotsky
March 19, 2022 6:40 am

You’ll know renewables like wind and solar have made it, when you see them being used to pump oil wells. Not until.

Robert W Turner
March 19, 2022 7:01 am

What we need are more permits, because that is where the oil is found. The most brilliant people on the planet say you can “just tap into them”, so let’s just issue more permits and tap into them, who knew that finding oil and gas was so easy!

The world outside America and Europe will probably just move on without them. I see the world again splitting into two factions like it was during the cold war, west and east. The West will wither away in Tik-Tok insanity, and the East will become the place where business and innovative minded people will flock.

bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 7:05 am

Even if all of the victim carding was factual, the biz is not doing what it is doing now because of those anti fossil fuelers. Rather, the $ folks have been fooled a dozen times over and are finally wising up to the realities. Those being that,

  1. Even with the continued ingenious commercialization of new technologies, every new barrel/mcf will be harder to get than the last one.
  2. The service industry has been gutted. New CAPEX will largely go to catching them up.
  3. W.r.t. shale, we petroleum engineers have utterly failed to come up with an economic counter to frac hits. Those, and old fashioned competitive drainage will, more and more, reduce per lateral returns
  4. No shale region has even marginally adequate haz waste disposal capacity.
  5. Current business plans ,worldwide, are wink wink predicated on shirking most/all of their asset retirement obligations. Norway excepted. They have the successful efforts of gold, coal, copper producers to emulate.
  6. New exploration areas make for good talking points. But even if pursued with cubic $, they would result in tiny, mostly marginally economic, blips on the graphs. Followed, inevitably, with the begs for royalty reduction and asset retirement delays/shirks. But the whines “Whatever you have left, be reasonable. I just want some of it.” are still heard.

This is why, here in the CONUS, new CAPEX is ~1/3 of that required for sustenence, even at current service rates. And that’s also why it’s no accident that PXD’s Scott Sheffield, about the best shale commercializer extant, pointedly left out blaming Biden from his announcement that their 2022 CAPEX plan was not for growth.

Yes, green endeavors have their own travails. So, if we use best practices for both, energy costs will rise. Let’s pursue both, with no thumb scaling and see what kind of mix we get.

fretslider
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 8:06 am

Fascinating stuff, b.o.b.

Where did you study English?

Last edited 2 months ago by fretslider
bigoilbob
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 8:14 am

Ad hom, with zero specificity, as usual. But glad you’re forgiving the poster for his self admitted run on sentences. Personally, I actually read what he said, which was cogent in spite of them.

But too much oilfield trash cognescenti? You might be right. I figured I was writing for mostly them.

fretslider
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 8:25 am

No, it’s simple question that you could have easily answered. My guess is the answer is just too embarrassing.

It does have a Puritanesqueness to it

bigoilbob
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 8:39 am

Midwest Yanqui ex Seabee, born, raised. School of Mines book learnin’ via GI Bill. Enough?

Relevance? FYI, I’ve oilfield trashed in other lands long enough to know that EASL folks can impart lots of wisdom, bad syntax and all.

Got anything relevant to the actual subjects to add?

fretslider
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 9:04 am

Relevance?

I have difficulty following your streams of consciousness – I am a native English speaker.

The only relevant thing to add, aside from advice on grace under pressure, is your beliefs like catholicism, islam etc etc etc are just that; beliefs.

Can you show me any real observed evidence outside of a model that supports AGW?

The answer to that I already know. You can’t. Many better people have tried and failed.

bigoilbob
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 9:08 am

Can you show me any real observed evidence outside of a model that supports AGW?”

Wander back. None of my posts here mentioned, or even indirectly referenced AGW.

fretslider
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 9:13 am

“Yes, green endeavors have their own travails”

Then you admit what you put forward – green solutions etc – are pointless.

So why argue?

Wean yourself off modelled nonsense.

Last edited 2 months ago by fretslider
Meab
Reply to  fretslider
March 19, 2022 9:28 am

You have difficulty following bigoilyboob’s stream of consciousness like the rest of us because boob is unable to make just one or two points clearly and concisely. Boob puts no effort into making his rants understandable – that’s probably on purpose as he attempts to hide his illogic behind impenetrable blather.

paul courtney
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 8:28 am

Mr. bob: “Yes, green endeavors have their own travails…” is a pretty out-sized fig leaf. “So, if we use best practices for both…” means we would not permit solar or wind onto a functioning grid, just to mention two “travails” of “green endeavors”. “[C]osts will rise.” Yes, disconnecting wind and solar from grids will cost, but “green endeavors” will force these costs on us, and the sooner we shut down “green endeavors”, the less these costs will be in the end. We have pursued both, and can see the failure of green energy even with the green thumbs on the scales.

bigoilbob
Reply to  paul courtney
March 19, 2022 8:43 am

means we would not permit solar or wind onto a functioning grid, just to mention two “travails” of “green endeavors”

Flat wrong. You obviously have no EE learning. It’s no 1960 anymore, and grid control is easily available for these sources.

But you have at least a part of a point. Current events have shown us e grid extent and stability, for all forms of energy conversion, is a strategic asset. Same as the Merchant Marine and the Airlines. Our defense planning should take that into account.

fretslider
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 9:07 am

It’s no 1960 anymore, and grid control is easily available for these sources.”

Like I said. Fascinating.

paul courtney
Reply to  fretslider
March 20, 2022 3:57 am

And, having persuaded all that “green endeavors” must still be in the “mix”, bigoilbrandon’s job is done here.

paul courtney
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 19, 2022 3:05 pm

Strategic? As in national security relies on reliable power? So in your defense strategy, which renewable “green endeavor” do you employ? I suppose you could camouflage paint the windmills and solar panels? Did that work for Ukraine?
Our defense planning requires that we STOP using green endeavors. You do realize that this “mix” you want is Bush/Cheney policy from ’01? What are you, a neocon?!

Pat from kerbob
March 19, 2022 9:10 am

Those in power here in the west, the ones that control your economic destiny, have a crazed and volatile look in their eyes as they try to figure it all out, but are publicly unable to support you because they’ve been kicking you in the ribs for a long time and it’s kind of hard at that point to stop and call all the other kickers bullies.”

Terry is canadian and is talking about this guy

3ABB6F8E-0B8C-4B25-B03B-679F363E1C40.jpeg
Dave Fair
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
March 19, 2022 12:12 pm

The Fonz?

Bob
March 19, 2022 2:17 pm

Very good article, a little on the dark side for my taste. Take the education problem for example.

“Anti-hydrocarbon sentiment rums deep in academic institutions, yet it is those very institutions new employees will have to navigate if they are to land in the oil patch. It is no longer “just another option”. There is stigma attached to petroleum programs.”

It is true you are depending on academic institutions for your new employees, but why. You have chosen to depend on them. Why would you depend on institutions that hate you to train your new employees? Train them yourself. Find institutions who will embrace your future employees and support those institutions, or build your own institution. I think the power and money in the petroleum industry and engineering fields in general are more than up to the task.

The respect and reputation of our modern academic institutions has not increased the past few decades, on the contrary they have plummeted. Break away from those naysaying knuckle draggers and train your own people. You will have better employees in the end.

nemo outis
Reply to  Bob
March 19, 2022 5:06 pm

I have been a registered professional engineer for 56 years, a consulting engineer for 40 (Canada). A fluid dynamics specialist: rockets and gas turbines, but also pipelines. I despair about the current widespread folly of rejecting hydrocarbons.

It has been trenchantly said that, “You can fool all of the people some of the time…” and so forth. I would add: You can fool enough of the people enough of the time that deep, widespread, and permanent harm will result before people awaken to the deceptions foisted upon them. Not nearly as catchy but still true.

I have become deeply pessimistic that most people will be able to see through the propaganda and lies in time. Or that politicians will ever act responsibly. No, we must wait until reality asserts itself strongly and slaps hard. I wish we could avoid disaster before the painful awakening but sadly this does not appear likely.

As Ben Franklin astutely observed, “Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.”

I would it were otherwise – but that’s a triumph of hope over experience.

Last edited 2 months ago by nemo outis
March 19, 2022 4:53 pm

The only thing more powerful than the climate agenda is Russophobia.
Britain returns to coal burning to de-Russify energy.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/plan-to-keep-coal-power-stations-running-in-bid-to-wean-britain-off-its-dependence-on-russian-gas/

Well at least its racially pure carbon – that makes it OK, doesn’t it Griff??

Last edited 2 months ago by Phil Salmon
Geoff Sherrington
March 19, 2022 5:43 pm

Much of my career was in exploration for and mining of minerals other than oil, gas and coal. When I retired, I was fortunate to have helped in the management of a team of about 50 professionals who were, for 2-3 decades or so, probably in the global top ten of capable mineral explorers. Therefore, in relation to the question of what direction our current fossil fuel professionals should take, I feel that I can offer some rare inside experience that is relevant, but not directly so.
Others have often asked what motivated this Australian mineral team (short name “Geopeko”). My answer might not be the same as others in the team, but here it is.
It is a matter of satisfaction from doing a hard scientific job well. There is a very special feeling when it is confirmed that another discovery will become a viable mine. It causes the creation of new wealth for society and the supply of rare commodities that society demands. Maybe the feeling is like that when a chess player wins a major tournament or a scientist earns a Nobel Prize. In a more ordinary sense, it is the satisfaction of doing well at a beneficial job. It never gets easier, because exploration is an ongoing effort with the easy targets already found while the technical and scientific aspects always become more complex.
We asked our team members not to invest personal money in any discoveries on which we were working or had brought into production. We assumed that the lure of large personal gain could skew outcomes in ways that could get not so nice. The value of sales from our discoveries, in today’s values, is approaching $100 billion. That is too big a figure to contemplate personally, let alone handle, so we kept out of insider plays. This new wealth gets spread immediately into the community through royalty and tax payments and the material value, the metals themselves, find their ways into households and work places that benefit from the technology.
One of the early Geopeko finds (with partners EZ) was the Ranger uranium mines in 1969. We soon found that a ‘hate uranium’ protest body existed. In some ways that is similar to the ‘hate fossil fuel’ people who feature in this Terry Etam essay. We never did work out a best way to combat their corruption of children through education perversities because no matter what was offered to them, they wanted more. There was/is no concept of niceties like even-handed negotiations. We could do no more than spend needless money to make representations to politicians and sometimes to take offenders through the Courts. We certainly did not fund large propaganda efforts.
There is a basic difference between explorers/developers and these ‘hate speakers’. We made money from land that had farming or similar other industrial value and for a few decades increased the land worth by orders of magnitude, putting proceeds into your pockets of everyone. The ‘hate speakers’ seem to be funded by shadowy people who made their fortunes by taking money from your wallets. Givers versus takers. Why do some people like these robber barons?
The fossil fuel explorers and producers of today simply need to stick to their guns. They are doing work that benefits the whole of society (less a tiny minority of hate speakers) and that is valuable. The current screaming about ‘existential crisis’ and so on will end sooner rather than later because good science uncovers the poor science and ends it. This can be a slow process, so be patient.
In my retirement, I have found it beneficial to contemplate that I have put far more into society than I will ever take out. If you design your future careers around that principle, you have a better chance of final success.

ThinkingScientist
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
March 20, 2022 12:46 am

Thanks Geoff, as an oil industry geophysicist approaching 38 years of experience that comment made me feel a lot better.

But I still have a huge uphill battle to keep bread on the table in an industry being attacked continusouly from all sides.

So forgive me for continuing to be extremely angry and pissed off with the ignorance, stupidity and short sightedness of the gullible public, the dim witted PPE educated politicians and the nasty green extremists.

Sadly I still think the lights are going to have to go out and ordinary people on the streets protesting and angry before this craziness is reversed and the politicians wake up. Its torches and pitchforks time coming, I’m afraid.

March 20, 2022 3:58 am

North Sea not in Arctic. That is all. Carry on.

Jeff corbin
March 21, 2022 6:36 am

Layman Questions?

  • Is there a true global shortage of hydrocarbon fuel or are we talking shortage due to markets and economies given collusion on supply side and lack of infrastructure.
  • To what degree hydrocarbon fuel at top dollar an issue of supply collusion and/or demand or political leverage, collusion and cartel?
  • Solar has been around since 1960’s, Windmills around since the early middle ages, Water falls, pumps are all ancient energy components , electrical generators have been around over 100’s years… we have good e-cars, (and very expensive) now but still most of our electricity is generated from hydrocarbon fuel combustion. What is missing?
  • Why are despots seeking to control prevent Black Sea LNG ports, and seeking to control the central and Eastern Europe, Asia and central Asia Hydrocarbon fuel markets if there was a shortage of hydrocarbon fuel and the world is about to go all electric in 5-10 years?
Jeff corbin
March 21, 2022 7:24 am

Climate change propaganda has psychological warfare written all over it. Psych warfare requires expertise and expertise requires big bucks. We are not dealing with a ground swell of anti-anthropomophic faith based sentiment. The propaganda and it’s methodology has become endemic. This is how psych warfare works. Just get the ball rolling and then everyone rolls it out four you. You just need to keep priming the pump. The goal of psych warfare is strategic and long term on a global scale. This is the way business is done in a globalized market place with Trillions of dollars oil and NG in the ground is at stake.

If you have read my posts, you would know that I am waiting for the next gen battery so I can go off grid. I’d love to see the consumer take control and put an end to this BS we have been consuming for the past 12 years. Give the consumer the capital they need to 1) provide themselves energy independence ( via a unitized electrical generation, storage (next gen battery) and distribution model with multiple renewable and non-renewable inputs) on a nano-scale for cheaper unleveraged energy, 2) to collapse demand and thereby the hydrocarbon fuel market miasma of megalomaniacs, despots and other exploiters across the globe. The net effect would be that I would no longer be their consumer and intellectual serf. 3) The other net effect would be the quality of our the air, water would improve and intellectual products we consume would greatly improve. Bad money makes bad bedfellows. 4) finally, the best of the net effects would be the empowerment of consumers across the globe…cheap unleveraged energy to grow their local communities and families…. leading to a massive global baby boom. This would be much better than what we have now. I the past thee weeks, we all have contemplated for at least for a minute or two the Spector of WWIII. It’s harder to see megalomania at work in in the shifting sands of systemized greed and lies that makes globalize work. Yet now we are seeing it as clear as a 20th c. WWII new clip.

Last edited 2 months ago by Jeff corbin
Jeff corbin
March 21, 2022 8:18 am

The reset of globalism is the disfranchisement of the local citizens and consumers from land, capital and deep creative desire. This is because of the economic realities of the market leveraging of globalism but also the growth in the psychological technology of colonizing minds and the time of consumers. We all have mini-Skinner boxes (read “Beyond Freedom and Dignity” BF Skinner) in our hands and mess with them constantly. ( I actually never purchased e-phone and still use only a land line). The goal is to modularize the consumer into predictable patterns of salary, taxes, opinions, scope of thought world, and patterns of consumption. Propaganda is better received by people who don’t care, don’t believe anything, and are skeptical about universals and live in the “what is now” world of their programmed inputs than by deep creative desire. Frightened skeptics are most dangerous en mass because they will try anything on for size, spout it and then move on propelling lies and bad ideas like beating the band. This is why mass propaganda works well we are consuming it constantly in all our medias.. People who are enthralled about the possibilities of their land have little time or desire to feed on media slop when they are feeding themselves the joy of their power to labor hard under their own creative desire. Propaganda reduces the impetus for deep creative yearning by creating pan-dependence on information and commodities. It’s sets up the false to limits what is true and possible and monopolizes are time and energy fighting an up hill battle for truth itself when we could be doing stuff far more interesting. Globalism has resulted in massive reduced desire and imagination for agriculture pursuits with grown dependence on global commodities markets and hydrocarbon fuels.. Globalism has resulted in economic landscapes that make it harder and harder for family farms and Mom and Pop businesses or even larger local privately owned business. It has urbanized the rural population. Globalizing colonialization is the process of leveraging people, their thoughts, their time, labor and capital. In 1940 most Americans earned a living on the land they owned or their own small businesses…. now the number is less than 2%. The people of central Asia and Africa should watch out….. if they want to keep their land. Just talk to the farmers of India. Anyway, the framers of the early 20th century did not use much oil. They used horses and hard labor, they didn’t go to supermarkets and most didn’t even have electricity or phones. But they had pends and paper and musical instruments and knew who to dance, write sing and make music. They where consumers of their own creative desire and the products of their own desires. they were not easily moved or controlled and would not tolerate they BS of carpet baggers and scalawags the our portion du jour. We could learn from them.

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