Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The South China Morning Post article actually says coal is expanding, but you have to read halfway down to get to that bit.
Climate change: Renewable energy to meet over 70 per cent of China’s additional power needs in next three years, says IEA
Even as state subsidies are being phased out, the rapid growth of onshore wind and solar farm installations is expected to continue
Renewable energy expansion is the mainstay of China’s strategy to gradually decarbonise its coal-dominated electricity supply
Renewable energy will meet over 70 per cent of China’s additional electricity demand in the next three years as coal’s role in powering the world’s second largest economy continues to decline, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest projection.
Additional demand refers to any increase from today’s level.
Even as state subsidies are being phased out, the rapid growth of onshore wind and solar farm installations is expected to continue, with their combined generating capacity surging 75 per cent to 930 gigawatts by 2024 from 530GW in 2020, it projected.
Renewable energy expansion is the mainstay of China’s strategy to gradually decarbonise its coal-dominated electricity supply, as it aims for peak coal consumption by 2025 and peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 to help fight global warming and climate change.
…
“Renewable energy sources are set to meet over 70 per cent of additional demand during 2022-2024, while coal meets 25 per cent of the increment.”
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Read more: https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3163644/climate-change-renewable-energy-meet-over-70-cent-chinas-additional-power
I call BS. I have no doubt Xi Jinping’s administration told the IEA this is the plan, but Xi Jinping almost crashed the Chinese economy late last year by trying to switch off coal, a follow on from Xi’s catastrophic gas conversion directives, which caused millions to suffer through winter in 2018 without home heating. So I can’t help feeling Xi’s contact with reality is a little tenuous, when it comes to energy planning.
The keyword here is ‘additional’.
If additional is in kW, maybe. If it is in kWh, nebba happen, GI. [As the Vietnamese B-girls always told me.]
In other words, renewables cannot even keep up with the increase in demand!
Here is the report :
Study forecasts China investment of $75 trillion in carbon neutrality
https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/china-projects-75-trillion-in-carbon-neutrality-investment/
This is PBoC strategy, the chief banker Ma Jun there defines what green means : nuclear and clean coal.
Goldman Sachs made a flawed estimate of around $17 trillion. Marc Carney at COP26 floated $100 trillion. And here at WUWT this week $433 trillion was estimated for the US alone.
Eye-watering liquidity, what?
Why on earth is China doing this ? I thought they had brains and would not follow this “fairytale” nonsense??? China of all countries should be sensible and leave it to the WEST to completely destroy our societies and heating systems !
Things are not always what they seem.
The Chicoms are blowing smoke.
Thats exactly what they are doing !
The post headline is wrong. What was said was “70% of additional needs”. That is a very different thing from what the headline says. I don’t know if the statement is correct or not (I doubt it), but misrepresenting what someone said is not the way to go.
From the article: “Renewable energy expansion is the mainstay of China’s strategy to gradually decarbonise its coal-dominated electricity supply”
Those Chicom leaders aren’t as smart as I thought they were, if they think this is the path forward.
I’m thinking this is more propaganda meant to cause the Chicom’s enemies to destroy their economies by using “renewable” energy. The Chicoms are cheerleading the West to destruction.
Sure, China, sure. Pull the other one. It’s got bells.
The key words here are ADDITIONAL and DEMAND.
If you have a 10,000 MW system growing at 10% per year, you need 1,000 MW of new generation. At 70% RE, that’s 700 MWs.
Adding 700 MWs of RE to a 10,000 MW system is a big nothing burger. It is 7%. Not 70%.
RE runs at low capacity factor. Depending on the load shape and generation mix, a system with 7% RE capacity will get 2-3% of it’s energy from RE.
70% = 2-3%
“Renewable energy sources are set to meet over 70 per cent of additional demand during 2022-2024”
The cartoon with the article sez it all….when pigs fly. Chicoms will say anything ya wanna hear, as long as ya don’t hold ’em to it down the road. Same with the dems/leftists/progs, et al.
And when the lower-level bureaucrats fiddle the numbers, erect dangerous and shoddy wind farms, set up seconded solar panels, and report up the chain that the targets have been reached. our media will of course credulously parrot the declaration China Succeeded! WhatsthematterwiththeUS?!?
The key word was “additional”.
Unfortunately, they have started (I cannot find any info on the operation of) a Thorium MSR in the NW of the country. Now that is a truly renewable tech, which they seem to be far ahead of the West in rolling out.
Bad Headline. Should be “China Adds to be 70% Renewable in Three Years”, but still BS.
Hm, I’m not sure about this. Chinese GDP growth for 2021 was 8.1%, it’s pretty far from being “almost crashed”. My guess is this “almost crashed” is more like wishful thinking from the butthurt “West”. Furthermore, I can’t see anything BS in the article quoted. Coal’s share is decreasing in China (while this still means expansion in absolute numbers). They plan to start decreasing absolute coal usage from 2025. It’s been their public plan for a while and they are more or less following it. Eric, you either have problems understanding simple things or intentionally report them in a distorted way.
Yes, ummmum, well, not really.