Reposted from the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 16. November 2021
Charts by Kirye
Text by Pierre Gosselin
Cooling October trend. And read below why Europe maybe facing a winter from hell.
Global warming is supposed to mean warmer autumns and milder winters, and thus we should expect a warming trend for October.
Today we look at the latest October data now available from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) for France, and Ireland.
20 years of October data in France
First we plot the mean temperature data for the 14 surface stations in France for which the JMA has sufficient (untampered) data – going back to 2000:
Data source: JMA.
As the above chart shows, 8 of the 14 stations plotted show no warming or cooling for October. Like in other regions over the northern hemisphere, autumn in France appears not to have warmed at all since 2000.
Ireland – 26 years of October cooling
Next we plot the October mean temperature for the stations in Ireland going back 26 years, also for which the JMA has sufficient data.
Due to its location in the Northeast Atlantic and its rural characteristics, Ireland so can tell us what’s really happening:
. Data source: JMA.
All seven stations in Ireland show cooling or almost flat trends. None have been warming in October.
“Europe’s first winter cold spell already straining natural gas supplies”
So reports World Oil here.
Unless leaders get real with the energy supply problems. Europeans could be looking at a winter from hell.
Temperatures are set to drop starting across Europe next week as a high pressure system could also bring colder air flows over central and southern Europe by the end of the month, according to meteorological simulations.
“The region will be particularly sensitive to cold snaps in the coming months, with gas prices up for a second week after surging to records in October,” reports World Oil here. “The arrival of cold weather in Europe would follow freezing temperatures and snow in China, the world’s biggest energy consumer. Higher heating demand could intensify the already fierce battle for liquefied natural gas cargoes, with prices for flexible U.S. LNG still more attractive in Asia.”
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This is childs play. I have the biggest deicing company in Europe as a client. One of the great things about this May analog package for December is it works in Europe, since almost all the time it is cold in Europe if its cold in the US. In fact in patterns like what you are seeing develop now, which is line with the 14 May analog/high impact hurricane season blend we have been showing on weatherbell.com since back in May, very often it gets coolder in Europe first. I would love to get in front of people and show how this works ( the warm analog low impact hurricane season yields warms Decembers). In any case from when I was at Penn State western Europe and the far east were always places that we looked at to telegraph US weather ( which btw if Dr Mann understood that he would understand why you cant just have “local” warm areas as is his claim for the medieval warm period, there are no independent warm areas on the globe as if one area gets warm it triggers response in other areas, or is a product of what is going on) But then again he does not forecast and he was not at PSU when I was. So look at what is going on in europe and what is coming. That positive in Iceland back to Greenland as it backs means the attack usually evolves so the US gets hammered. But this is a known response in years when one has High amplitude spring MJOs’. cool US Mays, high impact hurricane seasons, then very warm Octobers. the analog years we identified in May ( and you had to have the high impact hurricane season on NAMER so it involved that forecast being right). were 1950,1954,1955,1960,1969,1979,1985,1989,1995,1996,1998,1999,2003,2004,2005,2008,2010,2017,2020 If you want to read a July 7th issuance on this for the public Here it is. so you can see how this pattern that you are seeing was dissected. https://www.cfact.org/2021/07/09/if-only-i-believed-man-was-the-reason/
obviously, you can’t use it every year but I have 14 analogs ( now 15 given last May the hurricane season, and October) and 10 antilogs. which are great tools also. Then again no team calls the same play every time. BTW we had a huge. and I mean huge climate signal and what I call a daisy ( its what I am shooting out of my toy gun on the cover of my book, climate daisies the events that are positive). The almost total shutdown on a GLOBAL scale of tropical cyclone production in October thru now is mind boggling. one thing for the Atlantic to shut down but the wpac with only 1 landfalling typhoon hit this year is tHE BIGGEST CLIMATE STORY imo ( I am partial to the tropics obviously as I believe tropical inputs rule the climate and weather..I am my fathers son and he was always pushing that). Peace out
by that I mean the cooling October ( chllds play) what is coming to europe is like the Jack Nicholson version of the Joker saying :Waitll they get a load of me). Coldest early shot since winter of 2010
Thanks so much Joe. Don’t miss your weekend summary ever. The more I watch the more I learn.
Anyway it sure looks like a day of reckoning is coming for much o Europe sooner or later this winter.
Agreed. My favorite metric is glaciers. They expand and shrink at pretty much the same times all over the globe.
It’s like the alarmists say whatever they need to prop up their theory, almost in the face of zero supporting evidence. (A real expert can always find some evidence to support her theory, no matter how crazy it is.)
Now there you go again, Joe, using historical data and facts. The wokeunistas are going to be very cross with you. Yet again. Or is it still? Since they are continually cross with everybody about everything I guess it qualifies as still.
Here in western PA we are getting a little warm up, which inevitably will lead to cold and snow. Hopefully. Tired of all our snow going to other places!
An absence of tropical activity would be a by product of back to back La Ninas which, by my hypothesis, results from wavier jet stream tracks and more clouds reducing solar input to the oceans.
That will mean less warmth moving from equator to poles in air and water so the Polar cold pools at the surface will increase in size and intensity.
The recent record cold in Antarctica is evidence of that happening.
In Western Europe thus far the persistent high pressure blocking (solar induced in my opinion) just to the West of UK has prevented oceanic warm air from flowing into northern Eurasia which has led to severe early Chinese snowfalls and much of Russia already covered. The increase in ice in the Barents Sea region is a result of that.
It has been a bit milder than usual in Western Europe because the polar air is more to the East.
With the quiet sun encouraging blocking of the merifional flows in the atmosphere the position of the high pressure cells becomes critical and I suspect that the dominant such cell near the UK at present will move towards Iceland or Greenland and direct persistent cold down across Europe and Asia leading to a more severe winter than seen for many years.
No guarantee because we do not know all the natural forcing elements but it surely is not down to our emissions.
shame COP 26 was when it was
a good cold snap could have frozen the activitists
“I would love to get in front of people and show how this works”
Joe, you are already out in front, way out in front, which is the place all forecasters without a marxist agenda should be. You are also ‘out in front’ of the most appreciated
“The almost total shutdown on a GLOBAL scale of tropical cyclone production in October thru now is mind boggling.”
Yes, and this would seem to be something to talk about, but the alarmists haven’t brought the subject of hurricanes up in a long time.
Does this mean CO2 has lost its mojo?
A sudden decrease in hurricane/cyclone production could explain why there was a minor uptick in global temperatures back in Sept/Oct. Hurricanes transport a HUGE amount of heat from the oceans to space.
Good point. Not sure why you would receive a negative click. This point was made decades ago at the start of the AGW ‘crisis’. More hurricanes could diminish any warming.
Notice that they aren’t talking about tornadoes either since 8 of the last 10 years have been below average.
Well, I don’t know if it means anything or not, but I checked my own October records (8 miles south of WI/IL state line, 5 miles west of Lake Michigan) and we had a wet, very chilly and gray October that got wetter and chillier as the month progressed. In fact, for most of the summer, my AO was sloppy and chilly with occasional bouts of sunshine and warmth, and it seems to be heading toward early cold weather. Photos from last year show the same thing, but less rain and some snow in October.
We seem to be heading toward an early winter again this year.
I don’t know if this is relevant to your article or not, but I’ve been tracking weather for a long time. My sister lives in central Illinois and told me in October that her weather down there was also cold, wet and sloppy. Small local stuff may not seem significant, but if it’s widespread, like half the state, is it still small and local? I don’t think so.
Interestingly here in Western Australia our start to summer has been very cold and wet – we have exceeded our peak rainfall of 850mm (average going back over 50 years)
and if I use my Bees as a natural indicator
very low honey production and both hives have swarmed
This is the second year of La Nina and the second year of very low honey production in southern australia (Perth to Sydney)
low honey due to low flowering native bush, until just recently the flowering has been low and patchy
last rains seem to have booted some species into gear a bit
they will swarm n go if the foods low , sugarwater bribes didnt work?
Not meaning to be pessimistic, but I think we may see more of this over the remains of this decade. Just a guess on my part. I look for insects like wild bees, honey-seeking wasps, and other nectar-feeders and the count seems to be down this year.
Told you so in 2002 and more specifically in 2013 – 8+ years ago.
We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1130954
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, OCTOBER 31, 2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
Post Script
MacRae’s 2013 Open Letter was verified in 2021, with extreme cold winter forecasts and a green-energy-crippled electrical grid in Britain and Germany:
EUROPE IS SWITCHING BACK TO COAL TO SURVIVE BLEAK WINTER
“
THERE IS NO REAL “CLIMATE EMERGENCY” – IT’S ALL A BIG LIE.
Read the first half of my latest paper:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
by Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., October 20, 2021
http://correctpredictions.ca/
(excerpt)
The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Following are the correct predictions of Allan MacRae and colleagues on two important subjects:
– GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM
– COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS AND ”VACCINES”
Our scientific predictions on both these subjects are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.
No climate emergency? Oh, pshawww! What is the onset of decades ahead of cold, wet summers with low grain production, and even colder, prolonged winter seasons, if it is NOT a climate emergency?
Seriously, what happens to food on the grocery store shelves if the length of the cold season stretches from late August into early June in the north?
Correction – there is NO GLOBAL WARMING EMERGENCY, which is the proper term for the warmist loonatics “climate emergency”.
Earth IS getting colder, the opposite of the warmists’ failed predictions, and that cooling could cause significant human suffering.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
Thanks Joe – the YouTube channel Weekly weather updates (posts almost daily) also shows a winters blast for U.K. and Europe within a week-10 days:
https://youtu.be/_tDXJfYGfMg
obviously the lawyers havent got at it yet
only retain data for 4 years so you cant have a trend
I only have a few UK farmers for clients, I had predicted an early cold spell from around Nov 25th to around Dec 7th. I have also predicted notable late cold spells, from around Jan 27th for 3 weeks, and from around Feb 28th for 3 weeks. The predicted March cold shows in the [sometimes useful] 179.05 years back heliocentric analogue in Feb 1843:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
The late cold would be at the worst time for UK and European gas storage levels.
There is currently no gas shortage in Europe – but there are very high prices.
and it isn’t any cooler than usual in Europe this time of year -in fact as is usual these days it is warm for time of year in the UK.
Playing hard and fast with the truth there, mate, a few weeks ago there was
griff: do you change your thermometer every year, or what? Every six months? (you know, thermometers to be efficient must be boosted, like vaxes). Do you take the time to calibrate the new gadgets againts the old ones? You only look at the historical records (history started in 1985, as you know) when the prices of gas go up?
You are forgetting Griff adjust his thermometer at the same time he adjusts his clock 😉 Mostly so it says ‘Weather’ not ‘Climate Change’
And right on que grifftard toddles in to spew lies like the lie spewing liar it is. So very predictable.
Griff is so stupid he doesn’t realize that high prices are the direct effect of a gas shortage.
To have the opinions of a Griff, like all the wackos like him, there so much that they must not know, or at least pretend not to know.
Simon does that too
Griffy, you are completely delusional. What on earth do you think is driving the high prices up across Europe? Wishful thinking? If there was a glut of gas then the prices would’ve dropped. As it is there is a shortage – most countries are using gas reserves now and waiting for deliveries from anywhere they can get them. The market in China being favourable for US gas exports has meant that the majority of those are going to China rather than Europe, which is now having to rely on occasionally diverted ships and Russian gas supplies. As to current temperatures – they have become noticeably cooler outside of the big UK towns and cities (I can only assume you are living in a city if you think it’s still warm) and look set to drop much further before the end of November.
The UK/Eurozone isn’t the only place having below-average temps. I track those in my area and check other areas to find out if the below-average temps are widespread, and this year, as well as last year, they ARE consistently below normal for this season (Autumn). Also, there’s blizzard warnings now to the north of me, on the radar weather map.
Winter does not actually start up here until mid-December, griffy, you silly person.
Take a bath at Brighton if it’s to warm 😀
Way to not connect the dots.
It’s almost as if you were being paid to make a fool of yourself.
BTW, the reason why there are high gas prices, is because there is a shortage.
Who cares what the data shows, griff stuck his nose outside his mom’s basement and determined what the weather for all of Europe is.
Why else would someone so frequently soil themselves and not show any embarrassment?
https://mkweather.com/winter-came-to-norway-and-sweden-very-early-snow-in-the-north-tmax-below-0c-frosts-in-the-south-folldal-fredheim-86c-latnivaara-52c/
And… what do you think about
https://mkweather.com/extreme-november-heatwave-bulgaria-tropical-324c-greece-298c-albania-294c-romania-289c-italy-283c-serbia-275c-ukraine-bosnia-255c-croat/
Ever heard of natural variability?
Meanwhile Northern China is currently experiencing great cold and abundant snow.
“Typically gas storage sites are replenished in the summer when demand and prices are lower, but this year high prices meant less was sent to storage sites and owners with gas in storage have been keen to hang on to it in case demand and prices rise even more, leaving Europe facing winter with lower stocks than usual.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russian-exports-hold-sway-over-european-british-gas-prices-2021-11-03/
“The record prices being paid by suppliers in Europe and shortfalls in gas supply across the continent have stoked fears of an energy crisis should the weather be even marginally colder than normal.”
https://www.ft.com/content/72d0ec90-29e3-4e95-9280-6a4ad6b481a3
And in response to griff’s frequent assertion that the rise in the price of natural gas has nothing to do with renewables, the Financial Times says:
“The transition to cleaner energy such as wind and solar has had the effect of pushing up demand for gas — often viewed by the industry as a medium-term “bridging fuel” between the eras of hydrocarbons and renewables. But the long-term target of creating net zero economies in the UK and Europe has also sapped investors’ willingness to put money into developing supplies of a fossil fuel they believe could be largely obsolete in 30 years. Meanwhile, Europe’s domestic gas supplies, run low by decades of rapid development, have declined by 30 per cent in the past decade.”
https://www.ft.com/content/72d0ec90-29e3-4e95-9280-6a4ad6b481a3
https://electroverse.net/early-season-snowfall-in-india-european-ski-areas-see-heavy-august-snow-and-green-europe/
https://metro.co.uk/2021/11/16/uk-weather-cold-snap-from-eastern-europe-to-bring-0c-temperatures-15608633/amp/
Yes, because everyone KNOWS that high supply and low demand pushes prices up…
The highest prices in the world, and the biggest price increase evah in Germany. To top this the German Net Agency just put Nordsteam 2 on ICE, with Belarus threatening a pipeline shutdown (a taste of what means with a maintenance shutdown right now). And what does the war party do – more Belarus sanctions!
All of this to distract from the utter failure of FLOP26!
So the UK readies 600 troops for Ukraine and Poland, Brexit be-damned!
With all this war-noise it really does not matter what climatologists say
Meanwhile Macron called Putin, Merkel called Lukashenko and Biden called XI. The war-party is having a fit because of these 3 simultaneous calls.
And by the way, there is no fossil fuel shortage – prices are a direct result of spot-pricing, futures, in other words paper fuel. All fueled by liquidity pumping over months. The usual quackenomic mantra that it is supply-and-demand is simply bankster-speak.
In September 2019, the Dutch government announced a further acceleration of the decommissioning of the Groningen gas (10th largest in the world) field, stopping all regular production in 2022, so that has an artificial shortage effect.
“and Biden called XI.”
I hear Biden was asking Xi to open up China’s strategic oil reserves as a means of lowering gasoline prices.
Biden is crazy. Everything he does harms the United States and its allies. The Worst President Evah!
By allies you mean Germany? Still US LNG is a joke.
See exactly what was discussed – war avoidance.
Since when has the USA benefited from seeking monsters abroad?
I see you are still upset that France couldn’t hold onto it’s colonies.
Let’s Go Brandon!
back to the nursing home
Very high prices is a good indication of weak NG supplies in the “pipeline”.
Europe’s natgas storage levels are the lowest since 2013.
Griff
The only possible way high price is not related to shortage of gas is that your climate scientologists have once again perverted, subverted and destroyed the actual market mechanism with all their mindless interventions.
Your people.
price reflects supply. You demonstrate you flunked Econ 101 …. again.
Griff lives in the greentopia he doesn’t understand supply and demand economics.
and it isn’t any cooler than usual in Europe this time of year
Please reassess that in 10 days…
This should be fun to watch also.
German regulator’s Nord Stream 2 move may delay commissioning to March -sources (yahoo.com)
Surface wind flows are carrying warm air into the region. … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=2.29,55.80,1027/loc=-12.212,52.510
Perhaps you would explain why gas prices are very high if there are no shortages? Did Europe just lose the gas-price lottery?
Griff you are an idiot
there is a massive shortage and you need to open your eyes
Actually griff is in this case almost correct.
At the moment there is enough gas, as its high price indicates tightness of supply, and has resulted in a move to other fuels for those that can.
And it isn’t cooler in the UK than usual., Its about the same as it always is.
What is missing is large equinoctial storms. We had a couple, but there are usually more. And wind has been low.
But it isn’t even winter yet.
https://news.yahoo.com/explainer-europe-lacks-natural-gas-071122698.html
For the anonymous person who down-voted my link.
I agree with you that Yahoo is an unreliable news source. It has a strong liberal bias and no longer allows readers to comment, thus eliminating any feedback to correct misstatements of fact. Considering their reputation for a strong political leaning to the port side of their flimsy raft, anything critical of the Left should probably be considered to be even worse than suggested.
In July this year I placed a bet with myself and went on to a two year fixed price tariff with Octopus. This resulted in a doubling of my direct debit instruction, which was eye watering.
It remains to be seen whether my bet pays off; but, if so, it will be a pyrrhic victory.
Psssst! Would you like some cheap sun power up there in the Arctic?
Queensland calls for multiple four hour batteries to deal with solar duck curve | RenewEconomy
This was all sooooooo predictable.
I think I’ll bid AUS$1, do nothing and pocket the subsidies
Or have I missed the boat on that bid?
to get through 16hrs of no/low solar PV output, one of course needs (16/4=) 4x fully charged banks to use in succession. If you want to charge those using solar PV you then need 4x solar PV farms. The costs are enormous and there’s still very high probability of long blackout period, unless fossil fuel generators are kept in ready reserve, at hugh cost.
I just have one question, why are we keeping the generators at Hugh Cost’s place?
🤣
you gotta know Hugh.
I’ve heard the ladies like him.
Exactly. You need to add 24 hours x the number of days that the sun might not shine to get proper reliability from unreliables.
In case you missed it….IPCC’s methodology for validating attribution studies for the past 20 years is invalid and most likely invalidates their absolute conclusions such as “unequivocal human influence”…Ross McKitrick, Ph.D, October 16, 2021
https://youtu.be/WjxFeh5SUt0
Holy Moses!
We are told we can’t criticize climate science because we aren’t climate scientists. The trouble is that climate scientists, as a group, misuse tools that they don’t adequately understand.
What McKitrick has shown is that studies, purporting to prove that global warming is caused by humans, are bunk. His work is published in a peer reviewed climate journal. It looks bullet-proof.
My favorite comment in the video is that climate scientists are going to have difficulty understanding McKitrick’s paper because it involves matrix algebra.
This has been covered on WUWT, but somehow I managed to miss it. So, thanks TEWS_Pilot for the link to McKitrick’s presentation.
I read McKitrick’s comments and public statements, pretty much everything he makes available, and I try to post links to his work every chance I get.
His dedication to discovering and then getting out the truth at risk of the attacks of the “Cancel Culture” and the intellectually dishonest “Climategate” tribe deserve backing by all of us.
There is no unprecedented warming today.
Those who claim there is, can’t prove it, they just assert it, without evidence, and refuse to make their data available so the accuracy of their claims can be checked.
The world is spending Trillions of dollars on climate change based solely on the word of dishonest people, who won’t show us how they reached their conclusions. It’s ridiculous.
They don’t need to make their data available, since historical data is freely available.
The historical data is sufficient to refute all of their claims. Until they provide data that refutes the historical data, there is no need to take them, or their claims, seriously.
Now if we could just get the Elites to look at it that way.
Stop calling them “elites”,they are not,they are the lowest forms of life,they are vermin and scoundrels.
I just had to go see my Excel of Wundergrounds
And for October over the last 20 years they are all flat-lining. No trend worth talking about
Which is really quite interesting because looking at them over a full year, the ones on the Western side of England are falling while the Eastern ones are rising.
‘more research’ methinks, while trying NOT to confuse weather with climate 🙂
(At least my figure for 2021 stacks up with the graphs shown – for all of England, October 2021 was really quite warm when averaged over the month)
What are farmers in Ireland doing – keeping more cows or growing more wheat, barley & potatoes?
Oh. My. Gawd. It is cooling in October in the Northern Hemisphere! We are all going to die!!!!!!!! Like really, man!!!!!
As Mr Bastardi so eloquently explains below winter is coming, just as it always does, and actual meteorologists predicted this one will probably be nasty. Problem arises from the fact the only “meteorologists” news media report are the ones screeching that we are all going to die because humans are evilblahblahblahblahblah. People’s heads are being filled with lies by “journalists” and as long as that is allowed to continue we are all well and truly screwed.
Didn’t we just get finished ridiculing some of our trolls for making a big deal about warmest September ever, somewhere or other?
It honestly never gets old, my finger is getting sore from poking it in their eye. As for a warm September our furnace kicked on for first time this year in September. Oh, well, hopefully we will get hammered with snow this year, I am tired of having to go up to Alleghany National Forest to have any winter fun. 😉
Save a finger…grab a stick.
Now, now, that would be considered using a weapon. Reality is harsh enough on them.
And as a certain lawyer in Kenosha recently claimed, having a weapon means you no longer have a right of self defense.
They’re putting new super single drive tires on my truck to better prepare my truck for frolicking in the snow.
Come January I will never truck up in Canada again because this trucker is not vaxed and never will be. That does not bother this trucker one bit.
A trucker near me has parked his tractor and put a sign on it, “Not for sale, just resting.”.
According to UKMO, Northern Ireland its warmest October since 2007 this year; its 11th warmest October on record, which starts in 1885.
And UAH has already had its global October values published on this very site. Temperatures were well above average both globally and in the N hemisphere. In UAH NoExt-land, the region in which both France and Ireland exist, temps were +0 75C above average for October, making it the warmest NoExt- land October on record!
Why does anyone take anything NTZ says seriously?
As soon as you start with the warmest this and the xth warmest that, my eyes glaze over and all I hear is “blah, blah, blah” – I find it impossible to take what you say seriously when you persist with this childish game of ‘weather top trumps.’ For heaven’s sake, just grow up will you?
If ‘grown up’ means accepting at face value any bit of nonsense you read without checking it against the many freely available sources of contradictory evidence, then I wonder what your definition of ‘childlike’ is?
‘Grown up’ was referring to your playing a silly and childish game of ‘weather top trumps’ like a child in the playground. Weather changes; sometimes it is warm, sometimes cool but saying it’s the nth warmest for 30 – odd years is meaningless and completely pointless. You might as well regale me with how the temperature outside your front door at 2pm was warmer than yesterday and the 3rd warmest this week – meaningless.
“Nth warmest on record” is classic misleading statistical soundbiting, a true statement, but hides the fact that temperatures have been in stasis in the region for around 20 years. When a walker is on top of a hill every step is one of the highest on record.
It’s not a question of how warm it was, it’s the fact that the available evidence flatly contradicts the colder than normal claims being made in this article. Do none of you ever think of checking these simple things out for yourselves? You call yourselves “skeptics” after all.
The basic skeptic question is really just –
“can it be shown that today’s temps have never previously occurred?”
If that’s not addressed, everything else posited about manmade climate change really is just blah, blah, blah.
How is that the basic question here?!
It’s got nothing to do with the fact that totally misleading claims are being made in this article.
My point is that unless the basic question I stated above is addressed, every sidebar back & forth tidbit is of no consequence, arguing for the sake of arguing irrelevancies.
The WHOLE conjecture about manmade global warming becomes meaningless unless it can be shown that there are observable effects from said manmade activities that that have NEVER been previously observed as part of the dynamics of this planet.
Over to you to demonstrate when CO2 and / or temps have NOT been as high / higher than at any time in past history, prior to the presence of h0mo sapiens.
It’s not a misleading claim – it’s once again a difference of opinion on which data you trust – unadjusted data as shown in the article, or maladjusted data that you are regurgitating all over the page?
What is the correct amount of C02 ?
Derg,
Likewise, what is the correct temperature?
Really? Tell what the standard deviation is for each year there is a GAT shown. If you don’t know the standard deviation, then you don’t know how well the mean represents the data. Do you think that little ole 0.01 degree of warming might have a standard deviation a couple of orders of magnitude higher? What do you make of a 0.01 degree +/- 1 degree?
Shall I point out an interesting little item in the Ireland record posted above (which by the way is an unadjusted temperature record) – there are 3 airport temperature stations in there. Now, by and large, I don’t trust the temperature records from airport stations – they’re fine for landing aircraft but they’re usually warmer than normal due to their close proximity to acres of tarmac, concrete and hot aircraft exhaust. And still they show a cooling trend, now don’t you just really find that interesting?
Richard Page
” Now, by and large, I don’t trust the temperature records from airport stations… ”
FYI
Here is a comparison of the ‘bad’ GHCN airport station Anchorage Airport, AK, with the pristine USCRN station Kenai, located 50 km away from Anchorage, in the middle of nowhere:
And here is a comparison of 71 USHCN stations selected by volunteers at surfacestations.org, with all US GHCN daily stations located at airports:
Draw your conclusions…
I rest my case.
Seriously – what is that supposed to prove? All airport temperature sensors have to be located as close as possible to or on the runways in order to give pilots the most accurate temperature data as they land or take off. This makes them excellent for that purpose but completely compromised for general temperature data – surrounded by tarmac and concrete and repeatedly exposed to hot aircraft exhaust is the worst environment for objective and accurate temperature data. You might as well put a temperature station inside a shopping mall instead. Airport temperature stations should be removed completely from the network of weather stations.
Thanks for this somewhat Pavlovian reply!
If at least you would have understood what the comparison between Anchorage and Kenai really means…
No chance. You are so totally fixated on your anti-warming narrative that you don’t even manage to grasp simplest things.
Namely that Anchorage and Kenai
All that making your superficial, aggressive claim completely baseless.
Your unscientific blah blah against airport-based weather stations is of the same vein as the UHI discussion, which ended some years ago with the pseudoskeptic nonsense that ‘then, all station locations are infested by UHI, regardless where they are’.
But people like you manifestly are not busy with science and technique: they are busy in politics.
Yeah, Sir: feel free to rest your case!
Hmm, the Kenai weather station would be the one located at Kenai on the Kenai peninsula, would it? The one in the middle of that concrete area between the busy parking lot, the radar mast and that large concrete blockhouse type building, would it? And this is what you consider to pass for ‘pristine’ is it? The fact that it fails the minimum standard for siting weather stations and is compromised never occurred to you?
And, do you know, if I really had to guess – I’d probably have said that the Kenai weather station probably wasn’t all that far away from the Kenai Municipal Airport.
” The fact that it fails the minimum standard for siting weather stations and is compromised never occurred to you? ”
You are so over convinced of being right about everything that you aren’t even able to accurately look at stations, and discredit what I write instead.
What a childish all-time-everything-better-knowing behavior!
*
Let me help you, Mr Page:
Firstly, USCRN is the Climate Reference Network, and not a set of stations located in worst places. Thus, your arrogant polemic is completely useless.
And here is where you find AK_Kenai_29_ENE:
USW00026563 60.7236 -150.4483 86.0 AK KENAI 29 ENE CRN 70342
https://tinyurl.com/m82z4mp9
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” And, do you know, if I really had to guess – I’d probably have said that the Kenai weather station probably wasn’t all that far away from the Kenai Municipal Airport. ”
Yeah, Mr Page: guessing. That’s where you are the real cheer leader.
Here is Kenai Muni AP:
USW00026523 60.5797 -151.2392 27.7 AK KENAI MUNI AP 70259
https://tinyurl.com/ymcaderk
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You behave incredibly incompetent and unprofessional.
One of my former university professors said decades ago:
” Who is not able to scientifically contradict will soon start to politically discredit. ”
That fits perfectly to what you write here.
You are obfuscating the fact that anomalies are supposed to measure the temperature difference caused by CO2. What you are trying to use for cover is that anomalies look the same. UHI artificially raises Tmax making the whole temperature curve non-normal.
If you want to prove CO2 warming, you must use stations never affected by UHI. IOW, stations that have been and still are rural.
Gorman
When will you finally stop talking about anomaly computations with a trial to correlate temperature and CO2 increase?
” You are obfuscating the fact that anomalies are supposed to measure the temperature difference caused by CO2. ”
That is completely ridiculous. I didn’t write anything concerning that correlation, and have no interest at all to talk about it.
“ What you are trying to use for cover is that anomalies look the same. ”
I don’t cover anything: I simply show how stations located in completely different contexts
show, with respect to the same reference period, similar departures from their mean.
” UHI artificially raises Tmax making the whole temperature curve non-normal. ”
What a nonsense!
The contrary is the case: UHI artificially raises TMIN.
But since you, unlike me, very probably never processed any temperature time series like CLIMAT, METEOSTAT, GHCN V3, daily, V4, USHCN or USCRN etc etc, you don’t know anything of what you talk about.
FYI, here is a graph comparing Anchorage and Kenai on the basis of the absoulte temperatures:
As you can see, the two stations have exactly the same trend when considering absolute data.
And you think you are competent, Gorman?
My impression is rather that when posting such arrogant stuff, you couldn’t behave more ridiculous.
It looks to me that the trends are NOT exactly the same. Anchorage appears to have a steeper trend, higher Tmax and higher Tmin.
They have moved Ireland? lol
Yes, it’s here now:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/60%C2%B043'12.0%22N+150%C2%B026'24.0%22W/@60.7200026,-151.5606054,8z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x849ceb867793cbb3!8m2!3d60.72!4d-150.44?hl=en
My conclusion is that claiming to know that anomalies prior to 1980 can be determined to 1/100th of degree is pure malarkey. Those temps were recorded with integer values. Only by ignoring Significant Digit rules when computing averages can one arrive at that kind of accuracy. There isn’t a certified lab in the world that can get away with that. How do you explain that climate scientists can?
What is being contradicted is that CO2 is a control knob. CO2 is at its highest level but temps can only reach the 5th, or 3rd highest? Every graph you guys show has CO2 and temps in lock step, what happens when they fall out of that lockstep? Does the correlation fail? Without correlation, there can be no casual relationship.
You know (or not ?) that the UHA sat data follow, 2m data with a time lag of about 2 – 3 month.
La Niña restarting will be seen in the UHA data in dec.
The Northern Ireland data is surface data. I live there and can vouch for the fact that it was much warmer than normal in October. As for surface temps, GISS and NOAA Oct data are both published; both confirm much warmer than average temperatures for October, global and NH.
You started to mention UHA data, so I clarified.
Wait a week or two and see how warm Europe is then
Well, Accuweather’s forecasts were for uns in Germoney quite OK, like those made by NOAA.
I think we’ll be fine enough
https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/sch%C3%B6nefeld/12529/december-weather/2273767?year=2021
Warmest evah
Warmest evah
Move to Antarctica like some of those you apparently believe are experts have advised in the past. Hear they have been having their coldest weather ever recorded. You should be happy there.
It looks to me like the Climate catastrophe religion is not sustainable as a political position. Once the people in the western democracies begin to suffer disastrous economic and health consequences from political parties pushing the religion, the votes will move to restore the heat and basic comfort. Here in the US we may see this shift in the next election cycle.
Once your currency has been successfully destroyed and reliable energy supply has been outsourced there is no going back to cheap energy and comfort.
Looks like the River Thames Frost Fairs are coming back.
Forecast for the third decade of November.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/11/22/0100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-34.96,68.03,591/loc=-22.075,54.939
As also seen in GFS runs:
https://youtu.be/_tDXJfYGfMg
I think you mean week (or possibly quarter?) not decade? That’d be a seriously long month.
November has always seemed to last longer than any other month to me.
NOAA’s winter forecasts for Western Europe in these years were quite OK (especially the reference to an “extremely mild winter” in 2016/17, which was published at the end of summer).
Thus I see no reason at all to believe TricksZone when they write:
” Europeans could be looking at a winter from hell. ”
I rather will trust, like in earlier years, in
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html
And we will see how far NOAA’s forecast for Nothern America will be
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
So, a prediction then? You will back the warm, wet milder winter over Europe against the idea of a much colder, harsher winter in Europe? That should be fairly easy to sort out – a few months should see the result either way?
November snow in U.K. and NW Europe is now almost a certainty
https://youtu.be/_tDXJfYGfMg
Oh oh Hatter Eggburn…
Our last snow near Berlin, NW Germany (with ‘snow’ I mean more than 10 cm in the sum over the whole winter!) was 2010. That year, it was tough with clearing the sidewalks!
And I recall that in 1999, after a splendid summer lasting till end of September, 10 cm snow came down on… October, 3 during the night. Wummmm!
And you tell us about snow in November? Jesus.
Don’t make me laugh. The warmer the forecast, the bigger the failure.
Oh yes, Coolista ren
You discredit NOAA’s temperature forecasts showing warming, but… conversely, you enjoy theirs about La Nina:
Because you are 100% convinced it means cooling, huh?
Good and hard! They thought they could warm their homes with windmills and unicorn farts. Let them live with it. They’ll be begging for American natural gas and it won’t be there because of mean tweets. So sad. Live and learn!
Due to this “green madness”, Russia is about to deal a harsh lesson to the EU. Russia is massing a huge army on the border of the Ukraine. People flocking from Belarus to Poland. 2022 may not be a great year.
I can tell you a few more interesting things.
Since the whole ‘Climate Change’ meme has had zero impact on the climate, but a massive impact on energy supply, it looks like the days of renewables are finally numbered.
I don’t care what nonsense people believe in as long as they do the right things. Windmills and solar panels are not the right things. Nor is Russian gas. It doesn’t feel particularly like a hard winter is coming here in UK, biut I hope it does. It might be a ‘tipping point’ ,not in climate, but in public consciousness :0-)
A beautiful Arctic winter will begin in Europe in late November.
https://i.ibb.co/6vJGthF/hgt300.webp
https://i.ibb.co/n3gq6k0/hgt300-1.webp
Meanwhile in Oz November 1st is the start of the Fire Ban season if you can find any dry wood to burn- Parts of NSW to be smashed by up to 100mm of rain in one day (msn.com)
Polar vortex blockage in the Bering Sea causes reverse circulation in Alaska and very severe frost.
Accumulation of ozone in the north of Pacific blocks circulation in the stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex.
“Global warming is supposed to mean warmer autumns and milder winters, and thus we should expect a warming trend for October”.
We do – when averaged over the globe. (area of France 0.107%, area of Ireland 0.014%).
But given the complex nature of the climate system with energy movement of ocean currents and air masses, there will always be zones where the waves added and the waves subtracted (as in wave theory).
I know why that’s a difficult concept here as we have to keep alive that the world’s not warming – at least not due to mankind.
But really it’s just basic common-sense and a reality in all aspects of a complex system’s evolution under a sustained forcing
Just like the GMST does not rise monotonously – that is also reflected in temporal variations in local deltaT.
Here series of maps comparing global 1961-1990 base Octobers/Autumns with the 1995 to 2021 period, cherry-picked for an insignificant portion of the global (to presumably) deny that the whole globe is not warming in Autumns/Octobers …..
Now comparing 1995-2007 vs 2007-2021 showing the trend of the 2nd half of that period vs the 1st half of this “period of cooling” for 0.12% of the Earth’s surface for 25/20 years…..
cold snaps ..like unprecedented they really should stop saying that!
meanwhile Germanys put the kybosh on nordstream2 approvals
hope they enjoy the cold
Yes: Germany suspends certification of Nord Stream 2 pipeline, that’s true.
But our government doesn’t want to be Putin’s lackey.
He needs $ and € money he won’t get from China, and will soon understand that he should modify his arrogant attitude towards the EU. That process has begun in Belarus, but will need more time in the Ukraine.
Be sure Germoney will obtain the gas it needs.
wishful thinking
the man with the hand on the tap can cut you off completely Nordstream 1 plus others
after a few days of the coldest part of winter you will be begging him
If you say so…
Temperature in the Niño 3.4 region will drop.
Oh Noes, ren…
Of course it will drop! The lowermost Nina phase will be in December/January:
Did you forget it?
Galactic radiation levels indicate very low solar activity (weak solar wind magnetic field).
In a few days, a powerful high will cause temperatures in northern Canada to drop to levels now being recorded in Alaska.
I have been working on maths problems for many years with a special interest [fixation] on Fermat’s theorem.
–
That is no two positive integers to a power of 3 or greater can ever form a third integer to that same power.
–
The answer, which would fit in the margins of a book as Fermat proposed is as follows
“The sum of two cubes is 2 identical cubes plus a gap
When the sum is a cube and the gap is a cube the first cube has to be two identical cubes
Yet two identical cubes can never be a cube.
Therefore the first cube can never be a cube if the gap and sum are cubes.
Only a non cube can add to a cube to make a cube
This proof applies to all powers 3 or greater.”
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I hope you do not mind me tucking it into your blog.
If it proves reasonable with no flaws please let me know.
Did you ever read Andrew Wiles’ proof?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiles%27s_proof_of_Fermat%27s_Last_Theorem
Did you?
Perhaps you could explain it to us in three sentences, Bindidon.
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I have read Singh’s book.
To me the problem is that Wiles did a circularity proof which might not have proved anything properly .
That is, he proved that if a certain theory was right then his proof had to be right.
If his theory was right then the certain theory had to be right.
Not exactly the right way to be doing it.
If he was right, then why take a hundred pages to explain a proof I can deliver in 3 sentences?
–
Many thanks to both you and ATTP to be taking an interest.
Did you read what I have just said.
Apparently it is very easy to disprove claims of Fermat .
Most attempts end up in the circular reasoning sea.
I have added a n observation re double cubes and double powers that creates a simple proof, I hope.
Pleas explain where it is wrong as it surely should be wrong.
“Together, the two papers which contain the proof are 129 pages long,[4][5] and consumed over seven years of Wiles’s research time. John Coates described the proof as one of the highest achievements of number theory, and John Conway called it “the proof of the [20th] century.”[6] Wiles’s path to proving Fermat’s Last Theorem, by way of proving the modularity theorem for the special case of semistable elliptic curves.”
.
I have spent 30 years intermittently on this, stopping for a while after Wiles “proof”
Fermat wanted a proof to fit in the margin of a book .
This appears to be the case with my approach.
[QUOTE FROM ARTICLE] “Temperatures are set to drop starting across Europe next week as a high pressure system could also bring colder air flows over central and southern Europe by the end of the month, according to meteorological simulations.”
I lived in France from 1985 through 1995, and most of the winters there at that time were cloudy (foggy or rainy) but relatively mild. In the Paris area, one rarely sees the sun between mid-November and mid-February, either due to frequent storms bringing Atlantic moisture over northern France, or sometimes the Azores anticyclone moving up from the southwest. During such anticyclones, the high moisture level tends to condense out as a cloud level about 1,000 to 2,000 feet above the ground, which can persist all day due to the very low sun angles in late autumn and winter (about 8 to 9 hours of daylight).
Occasionally, a strong anticyclone sets up over Scandinavia, bringing strong winds out of the northeast (from Russia) to northern Europe. If this occurs in winter, the warming influence of the Gulf Stream is cut off, and cold Arctic air streams in, usually under clear skies, which allow heat to radiate away during the long winter nights, while the low sun angles do not provide much daytime warming.
One such anticyclone affected the 1994 Winter Olympic games, held in Lillehammer, Norway. The first few days had typical Norwegian weather, snowy with temperatures slightly below freezing, but when the anticyclone moved in, temperatures plunged to around -30 C, and cross-country skiers started dropping out of races due to long exposure to the extreme cold, despite the unusually bright sunshine.
People tend to forget that Paris is at about the same latitude as Quebec City or Edmonton, Alberta in Canada, both known for brutally cold winters. If a cold anticyclone sets up over Scandinavia and blocks the Gulf Stream, Paris in winter can be just as cold as Canada.