Brief Note by Kip Hansen — 20 October 2021
Channel 4, a British free-to-air public-service television network, sent a three-person TV crew to the Heartland Institutes’ 14th International Conference on Climate Change held this last weekend in Las Vegas, Nevada. I met and spoke with the two journalists. It took me less than ten seconds to realize that they had been sent to gather material for a scurrilous hit job piece on the conference. And that is exactly what they did.
The news clip (well, really just bit of video-climate-alarmism masquerading as journalism) exposes the featured Channel 4 reporter when, instead of asking questions and reporting the answers, her role is shown to be arguing for the alarmist viewpoint on camera.
I only mention this because the Smoking Gun of Climate Disaster in the broadcast news clip was Lake Mead, with its lowest water level “ever”.
The weather almost never co-operates . . . ask any sailor.
Atmospheric river storms to soak Bay Area, Northern California — biggest in 9 months
“Three successive storms will surge in from the Pacific Ocean this week, forecasters said Tuesday, bringing what may be the most rain in nine months to drought-stricken Northern California and offering a promising start to winter after two years marked by record wildfires and dry conditions.
Two of those storms look like atmospheric rivers — narrow, moisture-rich storms that play a critical role in the state’s water supply. The first, which was set to arrive late Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday morning, is likely to be a moderate storm. But another big one shaping up for Sunday night was upgraded to a category 5 on Tuesday, the highest in a five-level scale.
“On average Northern California might get 1 or 2 of those a year,” said Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego. “We are looking at prolonged rain and some heavy rain.”
The storms will dramatically reduce fire danger across Northern California, possibly all but ending it in some places. But they could also cause a risk of mudslides in some burned areas, particularly the Dixie Fire near Mount Lassen and the Caldor Fire near South Lake Tahoe.”
The last time California and the American Southwest had such an event was January 2021.
This new series of storms are predicted to drop up to two feet of snow in the high Sierras. 2017, which was the wettest year on record in much of California, also began with a series of similar soaking storms soaking in October. The incoming storms are predicted to be so serious, bring so much water and snow, that CalTrans has closed Highway 1 through the Big Sur area.
The weather is on our side and will help to debunk the Channel 4 nonsense.
This one series of three or four storms will not, of course, refill Lake Mead to historic levels, but a they are a good start to a wet winter for the parched and fire-scarred American West.
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The animation below shows how the polar vortex blockade over the Bering Sea is currently affecting North American weather. This is a jet stream at 700 hPa (approximately 3500 m above sea level).
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/10/22/0900Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-108.46,60.20,591/loc=-130.591,39.419
Heavy precipitation is expected on October 22 even in the deserts of Southern California. A powerful snowstorm in the mountains may surprise travelers.
The animation below shows the current circulation in the eastern Pacific. You can see that it is not typical of the La Niña period. This is because the stratospheric polar vortex has already taken control of the weather in the northern hemisphere. This will bring heavy rainfall to California and snow in the mountains, which can be counted in meters.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=epac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
IP ==> Thanks for the interesting links and details.
The rains have been moderately strong over the last 3 days. This area in NorCal is due for 7 more days of rain. That is a very good rain for this time of year.
Currently, polar vortex blocking in the lower stratosphere over the Bering Strait is already visible.
And this is the tropopause circulation forecast.
Arctic sea ice extent was higher on Oct. 18 than in any of the previous five years, except 2017. Data haven’t been updated since that date.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
Also higher than 2007, 2011 and 2012, thus right in the middle of the 15 years 2007-21, incl. Seven higher and seven lower, but the lower years were lower than the higher were higher.
The East Siberian Sea and the Chukchi Sea will soon freeze over.
https://nsidc.org/data/masie
Sorry.
https://nsidc.org/data/masie
An atmospheric river is coming over the West Coast. The large temperature difference promises a violent impacts of fronts from the Pacific Ocean.
Nature clearly doesn’t respect the idiocy of climate fanatics. The laws of nature are the only ones you can’t break. You may try but the punishment is certain and plays no favorites. The whole of human society could vanish in a flood of stupidity, as we seem to be trying at present, and nature will not care. Nature provides the opportunity for people to flourish and we have done so continuously for the duration of our brief existence as a species. We can throw it all away over superstition and unfounded fear of the weather or carry on and make life for everyone better. Nature won’t blink an eye or skip a step either way.
There have been decent rains here in Northern California over the last several days. It has rained for most of the day so far. The forecast is for seven more days of rain.This is an above average string of rainy days for this time of year. … https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/10-day-weather/douglas-city-ca-96052
So a good year so far as there were also 3 rains in September. Those rains were light but steady, lasting 7 or 8 hours at a time.
goldminor ==> Are you a Gold Miner or a Gold Minor? Just askin’
What part of Northern California are you reporting from? Is the precip reaching the High Sierra as snow?
I metal detect, and I have a good sluice box system. I live in Trinity County which sits on the west side of the Sacramento Valley. There was a lot of gold found around here. The mountains just to the north of me are called the Trinity Alps. It is rugged forested country. Actually the gold field stretched from Trinity county into the valley below and to the city of Redding which sits on the Sacramento River. In the early 1900s there was a thriving copper mine to the north of Redding. One of the largest nuggets ever found in California came from this area.
goldminor ==> If I’m ever out your way, I’ll join you in a little panning.
The eastern Pacific jet current pattern remains unchanged. Another front with precipitation will cover all of California in two days.
IP ==> Thanks for the image = nice!
You have to watch out for sudden floods and landslides in mountainous areas.
Not so much in this forested land. The only time it floods around here are when the ARs come in off of the ocean and sit around for some time. You may have noticed in the past that I occasionally talk about the major flood winters which this area can receive. These are always related to the solar cycle entering into the solar minimum period.
ps: I see that you have a Polish name. My mother’s family came from Poland. My great grandfather on my mom’s side had the foresight to leave Poland around 1920. He encouraged all family members to leave Poland at that time. Many of those who did not listen later died as Germany rose in power. What is also interesting is that my great grandfather on my dad’s side had reason to leave Mexico around that same time.So my mom and dad then came together as they grew up in San Francisco.
Greetings from Lodz, a multicultural city.