Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [note update at the end]
According to the UN’s MyWorld poll of seven million people in 194 countries, out of the sixteen possibilities climate action came out … wait for it … dead last.
In general, the only people who thought it was important were the perpetually offended white wokerati with pronouns …
Why is it that rational folks around the planet put the priority of climate action so low? Well, first off, there are serious issues out there that affect us today—affordable food, jobs, healthcare, reliable energy for farmers and householders, real stuff, not a bunch of climate blowhards screaming that the sky is falling.
And the second reason is, folks know in their heart of hearts that science is all about making falsifiable predictions … and in that regard, climate science is a dumpster fire.
So I thought I’d take a look at what climate scientists, and those who believe climate scientists, and governments, and the UN, have predicted about the future. We’ll start with this classic:
Yeah, right, that hasn’t aged well … here’s another classic from the UN. They predicted 50 million climate refugees by 2010 … and when the real number was, well, zero, they tried to cover it up.
So to cut to the chase, here without comment and in no particular order are predictions from various climatastrophists:
Shot from Al Gore, 2006:
Chaser from Al Gore, 2018:
And finally, my personal favorite because it’s so much more precise than the others … 7 years, 98 days, 15 hours to save the planet.
Given that, only someone with pronouns could continue to think that these folks are serious. So why do the scientists involved continue to flog this dead horse?
The answer was given by Upton Sinclair, who said:
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!
Yep. The answer is money. And it’s not just the scientists, the UN, and the media who have been seduced by it. The cartoonist Josh has looked at the end series of UN “COP” get-togethers, with the upcoming one being COP26 … I figure COP stands for “Corrupt Oligarchs’ Party”, but hey, that’s just me. In any case, Josh has seen to the heart of the matter.
And those, dear friends, are among the many reasons that the world, or at least the sane portion thereof, puts climate action at the very bottom of their priority list.
My best to all, I’m gonna go outdoors and enjoy the climate on a lovely autumn day,
w.
PS—Please don’t bother pointing out that these are not all scientists. If influential lay people make colossal bogus scientific misstatements, it’s up to the scientists to not stay quiet. Silence in that case is not golden. It is support for scientific malfeasance.
UPDATE—A Looney Old Lady (her screen name) on Twitter pointed this out to me, too good to leave out:
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If you understand how that reflective panel propped on the dash or those draperies on the glass patio door work and can balance your checkbook you know all you need to know to see through the greenhouse non-effect and all the hysterical crap stacked on top.
Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the GreenHouse Gases and it becomes much like the Moon, an arid, barren rock ball with no water vapor, clouds, snow, ice or oceans, no more 30% albedo, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (95 K) on the dark.
That is NOT what Radiative GreenHouse Effect theory says.
It is what Nikolov, Kramm, and UCLA Diviner say.
The K-T diagram (TFK_bams90) counts 63 W/m^2 upwelling Long Wave InfraRed twice: 160 – 17 – 80 = 63 once and 396 – 333 = 63 second. Laws of Thermo 1 allows only one, the real one from the sun. Erase the 396/333/63 from the graphic, the balance is unaffected and the GHG warming loop disappears.
342 arrives from the sun, net albedo 70% or 240 makes it into the atmosphere, net/net 160 arrives at the surface. Per LoT1 160 is ALL!! that can leave. The 396 is “extra” appearing out of nowhere.
The 396 is a theoretical “What if?” calculation for a Black Body at 16 C serving as the denominator of the emissivity ratio: 63/396=0.16. IR instruments do not measure power flux, they measure temperature and infer W/m^2 by assuming emissivity and assuming 1.0 or .95 is assuming wrong.
As demonstrated by experiment the surface cannot and does not radiate as a BB and as such there is no “extra” energy for the GHGs to warm or do whateveh.
For the experimental write up see:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
ZERO RGHE, ZERO GHG warming, ZERO CAGW or CO2 driven climate change.
Nick, I would simplify it much more. The “flat earth” model is a model. How good is it? For radiation we have to use the absolute temperature, measured in degrees Kelvin. The average temperature of the Earth’s surface is approximately 300 Kelvin. An error of 1% is 3 K, or about 5 degrees Fahrenheit. To get the temperature with an accuracy of 1 degree Fahrenheit, the model must be accurate to 0.2%. This model is a way too crude to achieve that.
Dividing the ISR of 1,368 by 4 = 342 averages that ISR over the spherical ToA like a ball suspended in and evenly warmed in a bucket of warm poo.
That is not even remotely how the Earth is heated.
ALL of the ISR heats the lit hemisphere alone and the OLR leaves in all directions 24/7.
But it’s Trenberth’s model.
It and all of its clones contain egregious bookkeeping and thermodynamic errors.
They are the basis of the radiative greenhouse effect.
They and it are all trash.
All 3 decades worth.
The UN poll used to be at http://data.myworld2015.org/ until they disappeared it in the summer of 2020. Thanks to the wonderful Wayback Machine internet archive, you can still find it here:
http://web.archive.org/web/20200728091358/http://data.myworld2015.org/
It had almost 10 million respondents by the time they retired it. “Action taken on climate change” was still solidly in last place. Inconvenient.
I’ve read somewhere that in 100 years time ‘mind uploading’ will be common place.
It looks to me that has become ‘common place’ already among the climate change histrionics.
About 80 or so years ago Albert Einstein said:
“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.”I think is as valid today as it was then.
What’s the hourly rate for a climate refugee? I guess it’s never been tested.
I could help them save face and move that number from zero to one, especially if there’s back-pay to 1980.
Joking aside, climate was a factor in my moving from England to California. I did a post-doc in Alberta, Canada on the way, so I may even count as two.
I’m part time climate refugee, when London weather gets to dull or cold or both, I escape to warm & sunny Med, back and forth about half a dozen times a year. My carbon footprint is probably greater than that of one of Jeff Bezos’ space flights.
Ahhh, another climate hero, making sure that plants do not want for their food!
I like it here in calgary
There are some downsides to the weather but nothing like the potential of sliding into the ocean like you have although we are now due for a drought period, hopefully this year wasn’t the start of that
If the Poll doesn’t specifically list “Climate” in a list of concerns…Climate doesn’t come up at all (with statistical significance)..
Pronoun enthusiasts are fixated on…um….pronouns…so even they don’t mention Climate unless it’s ON A LIST.
I actually love the proposition that everyone must agree with MY ASSESSMENT OF ME. I don’t particularly care what pronouns you use for me…heck I’m not even present when pronoun use is appropriate. But because I am an Ascended Being residing above all you riff-raff (according to me…which is all that counts)…I shall insist that all others refer to me as “Your Excellence”……perhaps “Your Magnificence” would also be acceptable if you are too stupid to pronounce “Excellence”.
Doc,
I understand completely! Personally I prefer “Your Highness” or “Your Majesty,” but some days I identify as a Native American lesbian woman; and then I go by “Your Radiance!”
The October weather outside my coastal California home is gorgeous, just as it ever was. My family has lived here for over 150 years and stories about Thanksgiving dinners outside when my parents were young were common. We could use some rain though.
I thought 30 years of weather was the period for climate, so we are now past the initial period of James Hansen’s warnings. But I dont see much of anything different. So I think I’ll go outside and pick some tomatoes in my greenhouse – yes, they still grow better inside a greenhouse where its warmer.
The discourse in the litany of doomsday messages above, sounds like the pitch of a “used car salesman (person)”.
“This is a one time offer only. You need to buy this car today, because the discount only lasts for 24 hours.”
“20 years” seems to be the limit of climate activist’s memory…
Don’t think “20 years”. Think “tenured career cycle”.
Images that can help to display the lies and possibly dispel some of the fear.
Another
And another
That Venice pic is the best for humiliating warmunists.
Well, Jimmy Hansen said a few years ago, you can’t rule out a 30yr cooling period, following the precipitous drop from the peak of the el Niño that temporarily ended the “DreadedPause”. His successor as head of GISS, Gavin Schmidt, a climate modeler, perhaps taking his cue from Jim, or feeling the need to plan an exit strategy after following Monckton’s new Pause reports. Stated that Models are running too hot, and something has to be done about it! Hmmm, what might that be? Their forecasted warming proved to be 300% too hot. Options are few:
a) multiply their sacred formula by a Le Châtelier coefficient of 0.33 which chops Climate Sensitivity to size and gives an answer matching observations.
b) switch cloud feedbacks to negative à la climate engine governor, or thermostat and reduce the effect of aerosols
Unfortunately this makes CO2 fully benign and makes its effect essentially all beneficial with Global Greening and burgeoning harvests, i.e. game over after the class action for trillions in damages, wrongful dismissal, scientific malfeasance, slander, interference in fossil fuels business and financing ….
It turns out
It was always about abolishing Capitalism.
That’s just nonsense. Observations are well within the range of modelled projections.
You don’t reckon that could be because the range is wider than Hillary’s derriere?
I mean, it’s an easy target to hit, hard to miss.
“Within the range of modeled projections” is an utterly meaningless statement. It says nothing about either the accuracy or the precision of modeled projections.
John Christie’s version is much more accurate
Thank you, Willis. Very educational. Please note that some of the predictions still have a few years to run, but things had better speed up if they are to come true. Also, note, that according to the Climate Scientists, we may pass a tipping point at some time, but all that means is that we have “baked in” a catastrophe that won’t be observed for decades. And when that catastrophe happens, people will look back to now and say “we should have acted”.
And, if the catastrophe doesn’t happen, some with a good memory may look back and say “It is a good thing we didn’t upend our technological society, and waste all that money in doing so.”
Is this from a descendant of Bishop Ussher?
I don’t think bishops are supposed to have descendants, but you never know…
He was Anglican (technically, Church of Ireland), and therefore not bound by any vow of celibacy. He did, in fact, have a daughter.
I stand corrected.
The universal requirement to celibacy was imposed upon the clergy with force in 1123 and again in 1139, but many popes had children after those dates.
Do we get to stone them in 20 years if their prophecies are wrong?
Wow. Just wow. A plethora of bodacious stupidity all collected into one spot, and I am a witness to it. (Yes, I know I posted something earlier, but this is the 2nd time I looked at that stuff and my reaction to it was “Eeeewwww!”)
Good thing I lived in Chicago for 30 years, isn’t it? I think it made me immune to Da Stoopid posted above in that article.
What was that story about the boy who cried “Wolf!”, again? Didn’t the wolf eat the shepherd, or something like that?
Okay, I will state my take on The Planet’s Climate here: It is temperate, habitable, and a pleasant place to live. We have weather that gives us rain, snow, ice storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, blizzards, mild winter weather, bitterly cold winter weather, droughts, fog, and four seasons that occur on a recurring basis. We can barely make vaguely accurate weather forecasts, so forecasting long range stuff like REAL climate change (which we won’t see in our lifetimes) is a fantasy and not much else.
We puny humans can’t even control our own silly desires or GI tracts, so how in the blinkin’ blue-eyed world does anyone expect me to believe we can exercise control over anything on this planet? Can any of you stop a volcano from erupting? Anyone? Bueller?
We succeeded Heidelberg man and Neanderthal man and several others, and we’re about all that is left of all the other primate hominids like us, but we think we can control something that doesn’t give a flying frack in space about whether or not we continue to exist???
Come to think of it, we might actually be like the dinosaurs that survived the Great Lizard Extinction: the last of our kind. We should be more alert…. or something.
There are a few good quotes from movies. This is one of them, from the movie “Wolf”:
Will Randall:
I’ve never loved anybody this way. Never looked at a woman and thought, if civilization fails, if the world ends, I’ll still understand what God meant.
You all have a good weekend, and if you get a chance, play that song Bad Moon Rising, by Credence Clearwater Revival. Fogerty claims the song is about “the apocalypse that was going to be visited upon us”.
That was 1969. This is 2021. Sometimes, things do make more sense later on.
I have to take issue with Mr. Eschenbach on the following: “folks know in their heart of hearts that science is all about making falsifiable predictions”. Many do. Many do not. People believe what they saw portrayed on Saturday morning cartoons when they were children and what they were reminded of day after day year after year. Now Superman and the Boy Wonder are homosexual and it’s rational that a person can change their DNA if they only believe it. Not only that…. YOU have to believe it too. Repetition has turned the lie into the truth.
Superman will no longer be fighting for truth, justice and the American way. Superman’s slogan has been change to “truth, justice, and a better world.”
I guess Marvel Comics doesn’t like the American way. Maybe it’s the Chicom influence on Marvel Comics that’s causing the change. Or just plain stupidity.
Superman is DC, not Marvel.
And who could forget the IPCC’s 2007 howler (page 12) projecting a warming of about 0.2°C per decade over the next two decades?
It’s been way more than that.
Yep.
Everywhere has been hotter than everywhere else since ever before.
And it’s worse than they thought!
The IPCC did no such thing. They “projected” a very wide range of possible outcomes (mostly wrong) in which only one fit your description. Who cares? Give me your age and I can “project” the exact date of your death … but you will never know if I was right.
The Final Nail,
You are showing us a graph from woodfortrees.org for UAH6 for 2002 going forward.
Would you now click on “Notes” and scroll down to “Temperature trends-Pick a timescale, any timescale!”
Now read,
“Depending on your pre-conceptions,by picking your start and end dates carefully, you can now ‘prove’ that:
.Temperature is falling!
.Temperature is static!
.Temperature is rising!
Temperature is rising really fast!”
There then follows the composite graph of 8 gauges from 1979 to date,(including your UAH6) followed by-
“If you look at the trend data you can see the current trends in degrees C, between 0.13-0.17C/ decade,or,if it continues at the same rate, between 1.3C and 1.7C per century.”
You have established the case that there is almost certainly no “way more” than 0.2 C temperature rise per decade “over the next two decades” from 2007 as all gauges are now showing a New Pause from 2016 to date.
There is no indication that the ‘current trends’ will be other than the indicated rate.
“I’m going to point out something that is profound and few people know related to climate change and La Nina’s/El Nino’s and the PDO. It’s not exactly a brilliant deduction as much as it is one from a scientist that is actually LOOKING at the empirical data and observations. You can do it to, right now…without a lick of climate expertise!
Just an open mind that can tell the difference between blue and red and can read basic graphs.
See the explanation of the PDO from above here: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73659/#76226
This information, will make you smarter (about this element) than most brilliant, highly educated PhD climate scientists with 8 years of schooling and decades of predicting global temperatures. I am absolutely NOT kidding.”
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73659/#76261
USA is the only country that creates the global currency.
USA has a net international position of minus USD15tr – almost 1 year GDP. The indebtedness to the rest of the world is currently increasing at almost USD200bn per quarter.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/current-account
It would not surprise me if the world, notably China, Russia and EU, stop accepting US paper during the Biden administration. The rest of the world will wake up to the inflationary pressure created by the USA living well beyond its means.
Trump was returning the USA to be self-sufficiency but Biden has changed that where the principal output of the US economy is money. Currently that money is good but there will be a time when it is not accepted.
China and Russia both have been trying to undermine the U.S. dollar as being the global currency.
It would be bad if they were successful, but a lot of this depends on trust and the Chicoms and the Russians are not demonstrating they can be trusted right now.
Biden certainly harmed U.S. credibility in every category, but this should be just a temporary blip. When Biden and the rest of these radical Democrats are thrown out of office, that should instill confidence in others that the U.S. has not completely lost their minds.
Sorry to mention this to these “scientists” but according to the second law there never is any turning back.
If the planet is going to die from something in the next 20 years, the most likely cause will be……………….. Death by Greening !
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
I think we’re close to a tipping point… of failed predictions.
Exactly right. They won’t be able to kick this 20-year doomsday prediction down the road. When no disaster shows up, they are going to have to explain why.
Warming the atmosphere 1 deg. C HAS increased the amount of potential moisture that air masses can hold by 7%………all things being equal, so with absolute certainty, heavy rain events have increased by at least that amount.
But the warming has affected the coldest places at the coldest times of year the most, not the topics.
This is mostly BENEFICIAL warming from the beneficial gas, CO2.
If it was getting too hot on the planet, the tropics(hottest places) would be the first places to have crops wrecked from excessive heat right?
Climate change and agriculture
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture
This graph of the real data says that world crop production in the tropics is not decreasing from global warming but instead is actually accelerating higher, in part BECAUSE OF the benefits from the current climate optimum and increase in the beneficial gas, CO2 by atmospheric fertilization.
C’mon people, how much longer are you going to let them convince you that we are living in a climate crisis using DISinformation/junk science?
My guess is that if they had people make their own list, instead of being presented with one, “Climate Action”, whatever that is, wouldn’t even make the top 100.
We’ve got seven minutes to save the planet and — wait a minute, my watch is off — we’ve got… we’re dooooooooooooooommed!!!! Oh, well… (Turns off alarm clock and rolls over in bed for the night…)
It would be fun to have a web site of all such End Of The World predictions, ordered by their predicted end date. I don’t have the patience for it, but I’d be a Patreon supporter of such a web site.
Well there is! https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/10/16/failed-serial-doomcasters/#comment-3368027 — Thanks, Right-Handed Shark!
Also try https://extinctionclock.org